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Ontario Poised to Miss 2030 Emissions Target highlights how rising greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generation and natural gas power plants threaten Ontario’s climate goals, environmental sustainability, and clean energy transition efforts amid growing economic and policy challenges.

Why is Ontario Poised to Miss 2030 Emissions Target?

Ontario Poised to Miss 2030 Emissions Target examines the province’s setback in meeting climate goals due to higher power-sector emissions and shifting energy policies.

✅ Rising greenhouse gas emissions from gas-fired electricity generation

✅ Climate policy uncertainty and missed environmental targets

✅ Balancing clean energy transition with economic pressures

Ontario’s path toward meeting its 2030 greenhouse gas emissions target has taken a sharp turn for the worse, according to internal government documents obtained by Global News. The province, once on track to surpass its reduction goals, is now projected to miss them—largely due to rising emissions from electricity generation, even as the IEA net-zero electricity report highlights rising demand nationwide.

In October 2024, the Ford government’s internal analysis indicated that Ontario was on track to reduce emissions by 28 percent below 2005 levels by 2030, effectively exceeding its target. But a subsequent update in January 2025 revealed a grim reversal. The new forecast showed an increase of about eight megatonnes (Mt) of emissions compared to the previous model, with most of the rise attributed to the province’s energy policies.

“This forecast is about 8 Mt higher than the October 2024 forecast, mainly due to higher electricity sector emissions that reflect the latest ENERGY/IESO energy planning and assumptions,” the internal document stated.

While the analysis did not specify which policy shifts triggered the change, experts point to Ontario’s growing reliance on natural gas. The use of gas-fired power plants has surged to fill temporary gaps created by nuclear refurbishment projects and other grid constraints, even as renewable energy’s role grows. In fact, natural gas generation in early 2025 reached its highest level since 2012.

The internal report cited “changing electricity generation,” nuclear power refurbishment, and “policy uncertainty” as major risks to achieving the province’s climate goals. But the situation may be even worse than the government’s updated forecast suggests.

On Wednesday, Ontario’s auditor general warned that the January projections were overly optimistic. The watchdog’s new report concluded the province could fall even further behind its 2030 emissions target, noting that reductions had likely been overestimated in several sectors, including transportation—such as electric vehicle sales—and waste management. “An even wider margin” of missed goals was now expected, the auditor said.

Environment Minister Todd McCarthy defended the government’s position, arguing that climate goals must be balanced against economic realities. “We cannot put families’ financial, household budgets at risk by going off in a direction that’s not achievable,” McCarthy said.

The minister declined to commit to new emissions targets beyond 2030—or even to confirm that the existing goals would be met—but insisted efforts were ongoing. “We are continuing to meet our commitment to at least try to meet our commitment for the 2030 target,” he told reporters. “But targets are not outcomes. We believe in achievable outcomes, not unrealistic objectives.”

Environmental advocates warn that Ontario’s reliance on fossil-fuel generation could lock the province into higher emissions for years, undermining national efforts to decarbonize Canada’s electricity grid. With cleaning up Canada’s electricity expected to play a central role in both industrial growth and climate action, the province’s backslide represents a significant setback for Canada’s overall emissions strategy.

Other provinces face similar challenges; for example, B.C. is projected to miss its 2050 targets by a wide margin.

As Ontario weighs its next steps, the tension between energy security, affordability, and environmental responsibility continues to define the province’s path toward a lower-carbon future and Canada’s 2050 net-zero target over the long term.

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Grid Modernization drives utilities to integrate DER, AMI, and battery storage while balancing reliability, safety, and affordability; regulators pursue cost-benefit analyses, new rate design, and policy actions to guide investment and protect customer-owned resources.

Key Points

Upgrading the grid to manage DER with digital tools, while maintaining reliability, safety, and customer affordability.

✅ Cost-benefit analyses guide prudent grid investments

✅ AMI and storage deployments enable DER visibility and control

✅ Rate design reforms support customer-owned resources

Utilities’ pursuit of a modern grid, including the digital grid concept, to maintain the reliability and safety pillars of electricity delivery has raised a lot of questions about the third pillar — affordability.

Utilities are seeing rising penetrations of emerging technologies, highlighted in recent grid edge trends reports, like distributed solar, behind-the-meter battery storage, and electric vehicles. These new distributed energy resources (DER) do not eliminate utilities' need to keep distribution systems safe and reliable.

But the need for modern tools to manage DER imposes costs on utilities, prompting calls to invest in smarter infrastructure even as some regulators, lawmakers and policymakers are concerned those costs could drive up electricity rates.

The result is an increasing number of legislative and regulatory grid modernization actions aimed at identifying what is necessary to serve the coming power sector transformation and address climate change risks across the grid.

The rise of grid modernization

Grid modernization, which is supported by both conservatives and distributed energy resources advocates, got a lot of attention last year. According to the 2017 review of grid modernization policy by the North Carolina Clean Energy Technology Center (NCCETC), 288 grid modernization policy actions were proposed, pending or enacted in 39 states.

These numbers from NCCETC's first annual review of policy activity set a benchmark against which future years' activity can be measured.

The most common type of state actions, by far, were those that focused on the deployment of advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) and battery energy storage. Those are two of the 2017 trends identified in NCCETC’s 50 States of Grid Modernization report. But deployment of those technologies, while foundational to an updated grid, only begins to prepare distribution systems for the coming power sector transformation.

Bigger advances, including the newest energy system management tools, are being held back by 2017’s other policy actions requiring more deliberation and fact-finding, even as grid vulnerability report cards underscore the risks that modernization seeks to mitigate.

Utilities’ proposals to more fully prepare their grids to deliver 21st century technologies are being met with questions about completeness and cost.

Utilities are being asked to address these questions in comprehensive, public utility commission-led cost-benefit analyses and studies. This is also one of NCCETC’s top 2017 policy action trends for grid modernization. The outcome to date appears to be an increased, but still incomplete, understanding of what is needed to build a 21st century grid.

Among the top objectives of those driving the policy actions are resolving questions about private sector participation in grid modernizaton buildouts and developing new rate designs to protect and support customer-owned distributed energy resources. Actions on those topics are also on NCCETC’s list of 2017 policy trends.

Altogether, the trend list is dominated by actions that do not lead to completion of grid modernization but to more work on it.

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Australian Electric Vehicle Sales tripled in 2019 amid expanding charging infrastructure and more models, but market share remains low, constrained by limited government policy, weak incentives, and absent emissions standards despite growing ultra-fast chargers.

Key Points

EV units sold in Australia; in 2019 they tripled to 6,718, but market share was just 0.6%.

✅ Sales rose from 2,216 (2018) to 6,718 (2019); ~80% were BEVs.

✅ Public charging sites reached 2,307; fast chargers up 40% year-on-year.

✅ Policy gaps and absent standards limit model supply and EV uptake.

Sales of electric vehicles in Australia tripled in 2019 despite a lack of government support, according to the industry’s peak body.

The country’s network of EV charging stations was also growing, the Electric Vehicle Council’s annual report found, including a rise in the number of faster charging stations that let drivers recharge a car in about 15 minutes.

But the report, released on Wednesday, found the market share for electric vehicles was still only 0.6% of new vehicle sales – well behind the 2.5% to 5% in other developed countries.

The chief executive of the council, Behyad Jafari, said the rise in sales was down to more models becoming available. There are now 28 electric models on sale, with eight priced below $65,000.

Six more were due to arrive before the end of 2021, including two priced below $50,000, the council’s report said.

“We have repeatedly heard from car companies that they were planning to bring vehicles here, but Australia doesn’t have that policy support.”

The Morrison government promised a national electric vehicle strategy would be finalised by the middle of this year, but the policy has been delayed. The prime minister, Scott Morrison, last year accused Labor of wanting to “end the weekend” and force people out of four-wheel drives after the opposition set a target of 50% of new car sales being electric by 2030.

Jafari cited the Kia e-Niro – an award-winning electric SUV that was being prepared for an Australian launch, but is now reportedly on hold because the manufacturer favoured shipping to countries with emissions standards.

The council’s members include BMW, Nissan, Hyundai and Harley Davidson, as well as energy, technology and charging infrastructure companies.

Sales of electric vehicles – which include plug-in hybrids – went from 2,216 in 2018 to 6,718 in 2019, the report said. Jafari said about 80% of those sales were all-electric vehicles.

There have been 3,226 electric vehicles sold in 2020, the report said, despite an overall drop of 20% in vehicle sales due to the Covid-19 pandemic, while U.S. EV sales have surged into 2024.

Jafari said: “Our report is showing that Australian consumers want these cars.

“There is no controversy that the future of the industry is electric, but at the moment the industry is looking at different markets. We want policies that show [Australia] is going on this journey.”

Government agency data has forecast that half the new cars sold will be electric by 2035, underscoring that the age of electric cars is arriving even if there is no policy to support their uptake.

Manufacturers currently selling electric cars in Australia are Nissan, Hyundai, Mitsubishi, Tesla, Volvo, Porsche, Audi, BMW, Mercedes, Jaguar and Renault, the report said.

Jafari said most G20 countries had emissions standards in place for vehicles sold and incentives in place to support electric vehicles, such as rebates or exemptions from charges. This hadn’t happened in Australia, he said.

The report said: “Globally, carmakers are rolling out more electric vehicle models as the electric car market expands, but so far production cannot keep up with demand. This means that without policy signals, Australians will continue to be denied access to the full global range of electric vehicles.”

On Tuesday, one Australian charging provider, Evie Networks, opened an ultra-fast station at a rest stop at Campbell Town in Tasmania – between Launceston and Hobart.

The company said the station would connect EV owners in the state’s north and south and the two 350kW chargers could recharge a vehicle in 15 minutes, highlighting whether grids have the power to charge EVs at scale. Two more sites were planned for Tasmania, the company said.

A Tasmanian government grant to support electric vehicle charging had helped finance the site. Evie was also supported with a $15m grant from the federal government’s Australian Renewable Energy Agency.

According to the council report, Australia now has 2,307 public charging stations, including 357 fast chargers – a rise of 40% in the past year.

A survey of 2,900 people in New South Wales, the ACT, Victoria and South Australia, carried out by NRMA, RACV and RAA on behalf of the council, found the main barriers to buying an electric vehicle were concerns over access to charging points, higher prices and uncertainty over driving range.

Consumers favoured electric vehicles because of their environmental footprint, lower maintenance costs and vehicle performance.

The report said the average battery range of electric vehicles available in Australia was 400km, but almost 80% of people thought the average was less.

According to the survey, 56% of Australians would consider an electric car when they next bought a vehicle, and in the UK, EV inquiries soared during a fuel supply crisis.

“We are far behind, but it is surmountable,” Jafari said.

The council report also rated state and territories on the policies that supported its industry and found the ACT was leading, followed by NSW and Queensland.

A review of commercial electric vehicle use found public electric bus trials were planned or under way in Queensland, NSW, WA, Victoria and ACT. There are now more than 400,000 electric buses in use around the globe.

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Jay Grewal Manitoba Hydro Appointment marks the first woman CEO at the Crown utility, amid debt, rate increase plans, privatization debate, and Metis legal challenge, following board turmoil and Premier Pallister's strained relations.

Key Points

The selection of Jay Grewal as Manitoba Hydro's first woman CEO amid debt, rate hikes, and legal disputes.

✅ First woman CEO of Manitoba Hydro

✅ Faces debt, rate hikes, and project overruns

✅ Amid privatization debate and Metis legal action

The Manitoba government has appointed a new president and chief executive officer at its Crown-owned energy utility.

Jay Grewal becomes the first woman to head Manitoba Hydro, and takes over the top spot as the utility faces mounting financial challenges, rising electricity demand and turmoil.

Grewal has previously held senior roles at Capstone Mining Corp and B.C. Hydro, and is currently president of the Northwest Territories Power Corporation.

She will replace outgoing president Kelvin Shepherd, who recently announced he is retiring, on Feb. 4.

The utility was hit by the sudden resignations of nine of its 10 board members in March, who said they had been unable to meet with Premier Brian Pallister to discuss pressing issues like servicing energy-intensive customers facing the utility.

Manitoba Hydro is also in the middle of a battle between the Progressive Conservative government and the Manitoba Metis Federation over the cancellation of two agreements that would have given the Metis $87 million.

The federation has launched a legal challenge over one deal and says its likely going to do the same over the second agreement.

Grewal also takes over the utility at a time when it has racked up billions of dollars in debt building new generating stations and transmission lines. Manitoba Hydro has told the provincial regulatory agency it needs rate increases of nearly eight per cent a year for the next few years to help pay for the projects.

The utility also exports electricity, with deals such as SaskPower's purchase agreement expanding sales to Saskatchewan.

"Ms. Grewal is a proven leader, with extensive senior leadership experience in the utility, resource and consulting sectors," Crown Services Minister Colleen Mayer said in a written statement Thursday.

The Opposition New Democrats said Grewal's appointment is a sign the government wants to privatize Manitoba Hydro. Grewal's time at B.C. Hydro coincided with the privatization of some parts of that Crown utility, the NDP said.

The B.C. premier at the time, Gordon Campbell, was recently hired by Manitoba to review two major projects that ran over-budget and have added to the provincial debt.

NDP Leader Wab Kinew asked Pallister in the legislature Thursday to promise not to privatize Manitoba Hydro. Pallister would only point to a law that requires a referendum to be held before a Crown entity can be sold off.

"We stand by that (law)," Pallister said. "We believe Manitobans are the proper decision-makers in respect of any of the future structuring of Manitoba Hydro."

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Cyprus Electricity Interconnectors link the island to the EU grid via EuroAsia and EuroAfrica projects, enabling renewable energy trade, subsea transmission, market liberalization, and stronger energy security and diplomacy across the region.

Key Points

Subsea links connecting Cyprus to Greece, Israel and Egypt for EU grid integration, renewable trade and energy security.

✅ Connects EU, Israel, Egypt via EuroAsia and EuroAfrica

✅ Enables renewables integration and market liberalization

✅ Strengthens energy security, investment, and diplomacy

Electricity interconnectors bridging Cyprus with the broader geographical region, mirroring projects like the Ireland-France grid link already underway in Europe, are crucial for its diplomacy while improving its game to become a clean energy hub.

In an interview with Phileleftheros daily, Andreas Poullikkas, chairman of the Cyprus Energy Regulatory Authority (CERA), said electricity cables such as the EuroAsia Interconnector and the EuroAfrica Interconnector, could turn the island into an energy hub, creating investment opportunities.

“Cyprus, with proper planning, can make the most of its energy potential, turning Cyprus into an electricity producer-state and hub by establishing electrical interconnections, such as the EuroAsia Interconnector and the EuroAfrica Interconnector,” said Poullikkas.

He said these electricity interconnectors, “will enable the island to become a hub for electricity transmission between the European Union, Israel and Egypt, with developments such as the Israel Electric Corporation settlement highlighting regional dynamics, while increasing our energy security”.

Poullikkas argued it will have beneficial consequences in shaping healthy conditions for liberalising the country’s electricity market and economy, facilitating the production of electricity with Renewable Energy Sources and supporting broader efforts like the UK grid transformation toward net zero.

“Electricity interconnections are an excellent opportunity for greater business flexibility in Cyprus, ushering new investment opportunities, as seen with the Lake Erie Connector investment across North America, either in electricity generation or other sectors. Especially at a time when any investment or financial opportunity is welcomed.”

He said Cyprus’ energy resources are a combination of hydrocarbon deposits and renewable energy sources, such as solar.

This combination offers the country a comparative advantage in the energy sector.

Cyprus can take advantage of the development of alternative supply routes of the EU, as more links such as new UK interconnectors come online.

Poullikkas argued that as energy networks are developing rapidly throughout the bloc, serving the ever-increasing needs for electricity, and aligning with the global energy interconnection vision highlighted in recent assessments, the need to connect Cyprus with its wider geographical area is a matter of urgency.

He argues the development of important energy infrastructure, especially electricity interconnections, is an important catalyst in the implementation of Cyprus goals, while recognising how rule changes like Australia's big battery market shift can affect storage strategies.

“It should also be a national political priority, as this will help strengthen diplomatic relations,” added Poullikkas.

Implementing the electricity interconnectors between Israel, Cyprus and Greece through Crete and Attica (EuroAsia Interconnector) has been delayed by two years.

He said the delay was brought about after Greece decided to separate the Crete-Attica section of the interconnection and treat as a national project.

Poullikkas stressed the Greek authorities are committed to ensuring the connection of Cyprus with the electricity market of the EU.

“All the required permits have been obtained from the competent authorities in Cyprus and upon the completion of the procedures with the preferred manufacturers, construction of the Cyprus-Crete electrical interconnection will begin before the end of this year. Based on current data, the entire interconnection is expected to be implemented in 2023”.

“The EuroAfrica Interconnector is in the pre-works stage, all project implementation studies have already been completed and submitted to the competent authorities, including cost and benefit studies”.

EuroAsia Interconnector is a leading EU project of common interest (PCI), also labelled as an “electricity highway” by the European Commission.

It connects the national grids of Israel, Cyprus and Greece, creating a reliable energy bridge between the continents of Asia and Europe allowing bi-directional transmission of electricity.

The cost of the entire subsea cable system, at 1,208km, the longest in the world and the deepest at 3,000m below sea level, is estimated at €2.5 bln.

Construction costs for the first phase of the Egypt-Cyprus interconnection (EuroAfrica) with a Stage 1 transmission capacity of 1,000MW is estimated at €1bln.

The Cyprus-Greece (Crete) interconnection, as well as the Egypt-Cyprus electricity interconnector, will both be commissioned by December 2023.

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Ukraine Electricity Imports surge to record levels as EU neighbors bolster grid stability amid Russian strikes, supporting energy security, preventing blackouts, and straining cross-border transmission capacity while Ukraine rebuilds damaged infrastructure and diversifies with renewables.

Key Points

Emergency EU power purchases stabilizing Ukraine’s grid after war damage.

✅ Record 19,000 MWh per day from EU interconnectors

✅ Supports grid stability and blackout prevention

✅ Cost and transmission upgrades challenge sustainability

Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine has extended far beyond the battlefield, with critical infrastructure becoming a target. Ukraine's once-robust energy system has sustained significant damage amid energy ceasefire violations and Russian missile and drone strikes. To cope with these disruptions and maintain power supplies for Ukrainian citizens, the country is turning to record-breaking electricity imports from neighboring European nations.

Prior to the war, Ukraine enjoyed a self-sufficient energy sector, even exporting electricity to neighboring countries. However, targeted attacks on power plants and transmission lines have crippled generation capacity. The situation is particularly dire in eastern and southern Ukraine, where ongoing fighting has caused extensive damage.

Faced with this energy crisis, Ukraine is looking to Europe for a lifeline. The country's energy ministry has announced plans to import a staggering amount of electricity – exceeding 19,000 megawatt-hours (MWh) per day – to prepare for winter and stabilize supplies. This surpasses the previous record set in March 2024 and represents a significant increase in Ukraine's reliance on external power sources.

Several European nations are stepping up to support Ukraine. Countries like Poland, Slovakia, Romania, Hungary, which maintains quiet energy ties with Russia today, and Moldova have agreed to provide emergency electricity supplies. These imports will help stabilize Ukraine's power grid and prevent widespread blackouts, especially during peak consumption hours.

The reliance on imports, however, presents its own set of challenges. Firstly, the sheer volume of electricity needed puts a strain on the capacity of neighboring grids. Upgrading and expanding transmission infrastructure will be crucial to ensure a smooth flow of electricity. Secondly, the cost of imported electricity can be higher than domestically generated power amid price hikes and instability globally, placing additional pressure on Ukraine's already strained finances.

Beyond these immediate concerns, the long-term implications of relying on external energy sources need to be considered. Ukraine's long-term goal is to rebuild its own energy infrastructure and regain energy independence. International assistance, including energy security support measures, will be crucial in this endeavor. Financial aid and technical expertise can help Ukraine repair damaged power plants, diversify its energy mix through further investment in renewables, and develop more resilient grid infrastructure.

The war in Ukraine has underscored the importance of energy security. A nation's dependence on a single source of energy, be it domestic or foreign, leaves it vulnerable to disruption, as others consider national security and fossil fuels in their own policies. For Ukraine, diversification and building a more resilient energy infrastructure are key takeaways from this crisis.

The international community also has a role to play. Supporting Ukraine's energy sector not only helps the nation weather the current crisis but also strengthens European energy security as a whole, where concerns over Europe's energy nightmare remain pronounced. A stable and independent Ukraine, less reliant on Russian energy, contributes to a more secure and prosperous Europe.

As the war in Ukraine continues, the battle for energy security rages on. While the immediate focus is on keeping the lights on through imports, the long-term goal for Ukraine is to rebuild a stronger, more resilient energy sector that can power the nation's future. The international community's support will be crucial in helping Ukraine achieve this goal.

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