Within A Decade, We Will All Be Driving Electric Cars


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Electric Vehicle Price Parity 2027 signals cheaper EV manufacturing as battery costs plunge, widening model lineups, and tighter EU emissions rules; UBS and BloombergNEF foresee parity, with TCO advantages over ICE amid growing fast-charging networks.

 

Key Points

EV cost parity in 2027 when manufacturing undercuts ICE, led by cheaper batteries, wider lineups, and emissions policy.

✅ Battery costs drop 58% next decade, after 88% fall

✅ Manufacturing parity across segments from 2027

✅ TCO favors EVs; charging networks expand globally

 

A Bloomberg/NEF report commissioned by Transport & Environment forecasts 2027 as the year when electric vehicles will start to become cheaper to manufacture than their internal combustion equivalents across all segments, aligning with analyses that the EV age is arriving ahead of schedule for consumers and manufacturers alike, mainly due to a sharp drop in battery prices and the appearance of new models by more manufacturers.

Batteries, which have fallen in price by 88% over the past decade and are expected to plunge by a further 58% over the next 10 years, make up between one-quarter and two-fifths of the total price of a vehicle. The average pre-tax price of a mid-range electric vehicle is around €33,300, and higher upfront prices concern many UK buyers compared to €18,600 for its diesel or gasoline equivalent. In 2026, both are expected to cost around €19,000, while in 2030, the same electric car will cost €16,300 before tax, while its internal combustion equivalent will cost €19,900, and that’s without factoring in government incentives.

Other reports, such as a recent one by UBS, put the date of parity a few years earlier, by 2024, after which they say there will be little reason left to buy a non-electric vehicle, as the market has expanded from near zero to 2 million in just five years.

In Europe, carmakers will become a particular stakeholder in this transition due to heavy fines for exceeding emissions limits calculated on the basis of the total number of vehicles sold. Increasing the percentage of electric vehicles in the annual sales portfolio is seen by the industry as the only way to avoid these fines. In addition to brands such as Bentley or Jaguar Land Rover, which have announced the total abandonment of internal combustion engine technology by 2025, or Volvo, which has set 2030 as the target date, other companies such as Ford, which is postponing this date in its home market, also set 2030 for the European market, which clearly demonstrates the suitability of this type of policy.

Nevertheless internal combustion vehicles will continue to travel on the roads or will be resold in developing countries. In addition to the price factor, which is even more accentuated when estimates are carried out in terms of total cost of ownership calculations due to the lower cost of electric recharging versus fuel and lower maintenance requirements, other factors such as the availability of fast charging networks must be taken into account.

While price parity is approaching, it is worth thinking about the factors that are causing car sales, which are still behind gasoline models in share, to suffer: the chip crisis, which is strongly affecting the automotive industry and will most likely extend until 2022, is creating production problems and the elimination of numerous advanced electronic options in many models, which reduces the incentive to purchase a vehicle at the present time. These types of reasons could lead some consumers to postpone purchasing a vehicle precisely when we may be talking about the final years for internal combustion technology, which would increase the likelihood that, later on and as the price gap closes, they would opt for an electric vehicle.

Finally, in the United States, the ambitious infrastructure plan put in place by the Biden administration also promises to accelerate the transition to electric vehicles by addressing key barriers to mainstream adoption such as charging access, which in turn is fueling the interest of automotive companies to have more electric vehicles in their range. In Europe, meanwhile, more Chinese brands offering electric vehicles are beginning to enter the most advanced markets, such as Norway and the Netherlands, with plans to expand to the rest of the continent with very competitive offers in terms of price.

One way or another, the future of the automotive industry is electric, and the transition will take place during the remainder of this decade. You might want to think about it if you are weighing whether it’s time to buy an electric car this year.

 

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Winds of Change: Vineyard Wind Ushers in a New Era for Clean Energy

Vineyard Wind Offshore Wind Farm delivers clean power to Massachusetts near Martha's Vineyard, with 62 turbines and 800 MW capacity, advancing renewable energy, cutting carbon, lowering costs, and driving net-zero emissions and green jobs.

 

Key Points

An 800 MW Massachusetts offshore project of 62 turbines supplying clean power to 400,000+ homes and cutting emissions.

✅ 800 MW powering 400,000+ MA homes and businesses

✅ 62 turbines, 13 MW each, 15 miles from Martha's Vineyard

✅ Cuts 1.6M tons CO2 annually; boosts jobs and port infrastructure

 

The crisp Atlantic air off the coast of Martha's Vineyard carried a new melody on February 2nd, 2024. Five colossal turbines, each taller than the Statue of Liberty, began their graceful rotations, marking the historic moment power began flowing from Vineyard Wind, the first large-scale offshore wind farm in the United States, enabled by Interior Department approval earlier in the project timeline. This momentous occasion signifies a seismic shift in Massachusetts' energy landscape, one that promises cleaner air, lower energy costs, and a more sustainable future for generations to come.

Nestled 15 miles southeast of Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket, Vineyard Wind is a colossal undertaking. The project, a joint venture between Avangrid Renewables and Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners, will ultimately encompass 62 turbines, each capable of generating a staggering 13 megawatts. Upon full completion later this year, Vineyard Wind will power over 400,000 homes and businesses across Massachusetts, contributing a remarkable 800 megawatts to the state's energy grid.

But the impact of Vineyard Wind extends far beyond mere numbers. This trailblazing project holds immense environmental significance. By harnessing the clean and inexhaustible power of the wind, Vineyard Wind is projected to annually reduce carbon emissions by a staggering 1.6 million metric tons – equivalent to taking 325,000 cars off the road. This translates to cleaner air, improved public health, and a crucial step towards mitigating the climate crisis.

Governor Maura Healey hailed the project as a "turning point" in Massachusetts' clean energy journey. "Across the Commonwealth, homes and businesses will now be powered by clean, affordable energy, contributing to cleaner air, lower energy costs, and pushing us closer to achieving net-zero emissions," she declared.

Vineyard Wind's impact isn't limited to the environment; it's also creating a wave of economic opportunity. Since its inception in 2017, the project has generated nearly 2,000 jobs, with close to 1,000 positions filled by union workers thanks to a dedicated Project Labor Agreement. Construction has also breathed new life into the New Bedford Marine Commerce Terminal, with South Coast construction activity accelerating around the port, transforming it into the nation's first port facility specifically designed for offshore wind, showcasing the project's commitment to local infrastructure development.

"Every milestone on Vineyard Wind 1 is special, but powering up these first turbines stands apart," emphasized Pedro Azagra, CEO of Avangrid Renewables. "This accomplishment reflects the years of dedication and collaboration that have defined this pioneering project. Each blade rotation and megawatt flowing to Massachusetts homes is a testament to the collective effort that brought offshore wind power to the United States."

Vineyard Wind isn't just a project; it's a catalyst for change. It perfectly aligns with Massachusetts' ambitious clean energy goals, which include achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 and procuring 3,200 megawatts of offshore wind by 2028, while BOEM lease requests in the Northeast continue to expand the development pipeline across the region. As Energy and Environmental Affairs Secretary Rebecca Tepper stated, "Standing up a new industry is no easy feat, but we're committed to forging ahead and growing this sector to lower energy costs, create good jobs, and build a cleaner, healthier Commonwealth."

The launch of Vineyard Wind transcends Massachusetts, serving as a beacon for the entire U.S. offshore wind industry, as New York's biggest offshore wind farm moves forward to amplify regional momentum. This demonstration of large-scale development paves the way for further investment and growth in this critical clean energy source. However, the journey isn't without its challenges, and questions persist about reaching 1 GW on the grid nationwide as stakeholders navigate timelines. Concerns regarding potential impacts on marine life and visual aesthetics remain, requiring careful consideration and ongoing community engagement.

Despite these challenges, Vineyard Wind stands as a powerful symbol of hope and progress. It represents a significant step towards a cleaner, more sustainable future, powered by renewable energy sources at a time when U.S. offshore wind is about to soar according to industry outlooks. It's a testament to the collaborative effort of policymakers, businesses, and communities working together to tackle the climate crisis. As the turbines continue their majestic rotations, they carry a message of hope, reminding us that a brighter, more sustainable future is within reach, powered by the wind of change.

Additional Considerations:

  • The project boasts a dedicated Fisheries Innovation Fund, fostering collaboration between the fishing and offshore wind industries to ensure sustainable coexistence.
  • Vineyard Wind has invested in education and training programs, preparing local residents for careers in the burgeoning wind energy sector.
  • The project's success opens doors for further offshore wind development in the U.S., such as Long Island proposals gaining attention, paving the way for a clean energy revolution.

 

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Alberta renewable energy surge could power 4,500 jobs

Alberta Renewable Energy Boom highlights corporate investments, power purchase agreements, wind and solar capacity gains, grid decarbonization, and job growth, adding 2 GW and $3.7B construction since 2019 in an open electricity market.

 

Key Points

Alberta's PPA-driven wind and solar surge adds 2 GW, cuts grid emissions, creates jobs, and accelerates private builds.

✅ 2 GW added since 2019 via corporate PPAs

✅ Open electricity market enables direct deals

✅ Strong wind and solar resources boost output

 

Alberta has seen a massive increase in corporate investment in renewable energy since 2019, and capacity from those deals is set to increase output by two gigawatts —  enough to power roughly 1.5 million homes. 

“Our analysis shows $3.7 billion worth of renewables construction by 2023 and 4,500 jobs,” Nagwan Al-Guneid, the director of Business Renewables Centre Canada, says. 

The centre is an initiative of the environmental think tank Pembina Institute and provides education and guidance for companies looking to invest in renewable energy or energy offsets across Canada. Its membership is made up of renewable energy companies.

The addition of two gigawatts is over two times the amount of renewable energy added to the grid between 2010 and 2017, according to the Canadian Energy Regulator. 

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“This is driven directly by what we call power purchase agreements,” Al-Guneid says. “We have companies from across the country coming to Alberta.”

So far this year, 191 megawatts of renewable energy will be added through purchase agreements, according to the Business Renewables Centre, as diversified energy sources can make better projects overall.

Alberta’s electricity system is unique in Canada — an open market where companies can ink deals directly with private power producers to sell renewable energy and buy a set amount of electricity produced each year, either for use or for offset credits. The financial security provided by those contracts helps producers build out more renewable projects without market risks. Purchasers get cheap renewable energy or credits to meet internal or external emissions goals. 

It differs from other provinces, many of which rely on large hydro capacity and where there is a monopoly, often government-owned, on power supply. 

In those provinces, investment in renewables largely depends on whether the company with the monopoly is in a buying mood, says Blake Shaffer, an economics professor at the University of Calgary who studies electricity markets. 

That’s not the case in Alberta, where the only real regulatory hurdle is applying to connect a project to the grid.

“Once that’s approved, you can just go ahead and build it, and you can sell it,” Shaffer says.

That sort of flexibility has attracted some big investments, including two deals with Amazon in 2021 to purchase 455 megawatts worth of solar power from Calgary-based Greengate Power. There are also big investments from oil companies looking to offset emissions.

The investments are allowing Alberta to decarbonize its grid, largely with the backing of the private sector. 

Shaffer says Alberta is the “renewables capital in Canada,” a powerhouse in both green and fossil energy by many measures.

“That just shocks people because of course their association with Alberta is nothing about renewables, but oil and gas,” Shaffer says. “But it really is the investment centre for renewables in the entire country right now.”

Alberta has ‘embarrassing’ riches in wind energy and solar power
It’s not just the market that is driving Alberta’s renewables boom. According to Shaffer there are three other key factors: an embarrassment of wind and solar riches, the need to transition away from a traditionally dirty, coal-reliant grid and the current high costs of energy. 

Shaffer says the strong and seemingly non-stop winds coming off the foothills of the Rockies in the southwest of the province mean wind power is increasingly competitive and each turbine produces more energy compared to other areas. The same is true for solar, with an abundance of sunny days.

“Southern Alberta and southern Saskatchewan have the best solar insolation,” he says. “You put a panel in Vancouver, or you put a panel in Medicine Hat, and you’re gonna get about 50 per cent more energy out of that panel in Medicine Hat, and they’re gonna cost you the same.”

The spark that set off the surge in investments wasn’t strictly an open-market mechanism. Under the previous NDP government, the province brought in a program that allowed private producers to compete for government contracts, with some solar facilities contracted below natural gas demonstrating cost advantages.

The government agreed to a certain price and the producers were then allowed to sell their electricity on the open market. If the price dropped below what was guaranteed, the province would pay the difference. If, however, the price was higher, the developers would pay the difference to the government. 

 

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4 European nations to build North Sea wind farms

North Sea Offshore Wind Farms will deliver 150 GW by 2050 as EU partners scale renewable energy, offshore turbines, grid interconnectors, and REPowerEU goals to cut emissions, boost energy security, and reduce Russian fossil dependence.

 

Key Points

A joint EU initiative to build 150 GW of offshore wind by 2050, advancing REPowerEU, decarbonization, and energy security.

✅ Targets at least 150 GW of offshore wind by 2050

✅ Backed by Belgium, Netherlands, Germany, and Denmark

✅ Aligns with REPowerEU, grid integration, and emissions cuts

 

Four European Union countries plan to build North Sea wind farms capable of producing at least 150 gigawatts of energy by 2050 to help cut carbon emissions that cause climate change, with EU wind and solar surpassing gas last year, Danish media have reported.

Under the plan, wind turbines would be raised off the coasts of Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany and Denmark, where a recent green power record highlighted strong winds, daily Danish newspaper Jyllands-Posten said.

The project would mean a tenfold increase in the EU's current offshore wind capacity, underscoring how renewables are crowding out gas across Europe today.

“The North Sea can do a lot," Danish Prime Minister Frederiksen told the newspaper, adding the close cooperation between the four EU nations "must start now.”

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte and Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo are scheduled to attend a North Sea Summit on Wednesday in Esbjerg, 260 kilometers (162 miles) west of Copenhagen.

In Brussels, the European Commission moved Wednesday to jump-start plans for the whole 27-nation EU to abandon Russian energy amid the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine. The commission proposed a nearly 300 billion-euro ($315 billion) package that includes more efficient use of fuels and a faster rollout of renewable power, even as stunted hydro and nuclear output may hobble recovery efforts.

The investment initiative by the EU's executive arm is meant to help the bloc start weaning themselves off Russian fossil fuels this year, even as Europe is losing nuclear power during the transition. The goal is to deprive Russia, the EU’s main supplier of oil, natural gas and coal, of tens of billions in revenue and strengthen EU climate policies.

“We are taking our ambition to yet another level to make sure that we become independent from Russian fossil fuels as quickly as possible,” von der Leyen said in Brussels when announcing the package, dubbed REPowerEU.

The EU has pledged to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 55% compared with 1990 levels by 2030, and to get to net zero emissions by 2050, with a recent German renewables milestone underscoring the pace of change.

The European Commission has set an overall target of generating 300 gigawatts of offshore energy of by 2050, though grid expansion challenges in Germany highlight hurdles.

Along with climate change, the war in Ukraine has made EU nations eager to reduce their dependency on Russian natural gas and oil. In 2021, the EU imported roughly 40% of its gas and 25% of its oil from Russia.

At a March 11 summit, EU leaders agreed in principle to phase out Russian gas, oil and coal imports by 2027.

 

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Tesla prepares to bring its electric cars to South America

Tesla Chile Market Entry signals EV expansion into South America, with a Santiago country manager, service technicians, and advisors, leveraging lithium supply, competing with BYD, and preparing sales, service, and charging infrastructure.

 

Key Points

Tesla will enter Chile to launch EV sales, service, and charging from Santiago, opening its South America expansion.

✅ Country manager role based in Santiago to lead market launch

✅ Focus on EV sales, service centers, and charging infrastructure

✅ Leverages Chile's lithium ecosystem; competes with BYD

 

Tesla is preparing to bring its electric cars to South America, according to a new job posting in Chile.

It has been just over a decade since Tesla launched the Model S and significantly accelerated EV inflection point in the deployment of electric vehicles around the world.

The automaker has expanded its efforts across North America, where the U.S. EV tipping point has been reached, and most countries in Europe, and it is still gradually expanding in Asia.

But there’s one continent that Tesla hasn’t touched yet: South America, even as global EV adoption raced to two million in five years.

It sounds like it is about to change.

Tesla has started to promote a job posting on LinkedIn for a country manager in Chile, aligning with international moves like UK expansion plans it has signaled.

The country manager is generally the first person hired when Tesla expands in a new market.

The job is going to be based in Santiago, the capital of Chile, where the company is also looking for some Tesla advisors and service technicians.

Chile is an interesting choice for a first entry into the South American market. The Chilean auto market consists of only about 234,000 vehicles sold year-to-date and that’s down 29% versus the previous year.

That’s roughly the number of vehicles sold in Brazil every month.

While the size of the auto market in the country is small, there’s a strong interest for electric vehicles as the EV era arrives ahead of schedule there, which might explain Tesla’s foray.

The country is rich in lithium, a critical material for EV batteries, where lithium supply concerns have also emerged, which has helped create interest for electric vehicles in the country. The government also announced an initiative to allow for only new sales of electric vehicles in the country starting in 2035.

Tesla’s Chinese competitor BYD has set its sight on the South American market by bringing its cheaper China-made EVs to the market, part of a broader Chinese EV push in Europe as well, but now it looks like Tesla is willing to test the market on the higher-end.

 

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Electric cars won't solve our pollution problems – Britain needs a total transport rethink

UK Transport Policy Overhaul signals bans on petrol and diesel cars, rail franchising reform, 15-minute cities, and active travel, tackling congestion, emissions, microplastics, urban sprawl, and public health with systemic, multimodal planning.

 

Key Points

A shift toward EVs, rail reform, and 15-minute cities to reduce emissions, congestion, and health risks.

✅ Phase-out of petrol and diesel car sales by 2030

✅ National rail franchising replaced with integrated operations

✅ Urban design: 15-minute cities, cycling, and active travel

 

Could it be true? That this government will bring all sales of petrol and diesel cars to an end by 2030, even as a 2035 EV mandate in Canada is derided by critics? That it will cancel all rail franchises and replace them with a system that might actually work? Could the UK, for the first time since the internal combustion engine was invented, really be contemplating a rational transport policy? Hold your horses.

Before deconstructing it, let’s mark this moment. Both announcements might be a decade or two overdue, but we should bank them as they’re essential steps towards a habitable nation.

We don’t yet know exactly what they mean, as the government has delayed its full transport announcement until later this autumn. But so far, nothing that surrounds these positive proposals makes any sense, and the so-called EV revolution often proves illusory in practice.

If the government has a vision for transport, it appears to be plug and play. We’ll keep our existing transport system, but change the kinds of vehicles and train companies that use it. But when you have a system in which structural failure is embedded, nothing short of structural change will significantly improve it.

A switch to electric cars will reduce pollution, though the benefits depend on the power mix; in Canada, Canada’s grid was 18% fossil-fuelled in 2019, for example. It won’t eliminate it, as a high proportion of the microscopic particles thrown into the air by cars, which are highly damaging to our health, arise from tyres grating on the surface of the road. Tyre wear is also by far the biggest source of microplastics pouring into our rivers and the sea. And when tyres, regardless of the engine that moves them, come to the end of their lives, we still have no means of properly recycling them.

Cars are an environmental hazard long before they leave the showroom. One estimate suggests that the carbon emissions produced in building each one equate to driving it for 150,000km. The rise in electric vehicle sales has created a rush for minerals such as lithium and copper, with devastating impacts on beautiful places. If the aim is greatly to reduce the number of vehicles on the road, and replace those that remain with battery-operated models, alongside EV battery recycling efforts, then they will be part of the solution. But if, as a forecast by the National Grid proposes, the current fleet is replaced by 35m electric cars, a University of Toronto study warns they are not a silver bullet, and we’ll simply create another environmental disaster.

Switching power sources does nothing to address the vast amount of space the car demands, which could otherwise be used for greens, parks, playgrounds and homes. It doesn’t stop cars from carving up community and turning streets into thoroughfares and outdoor life into a mortal hazard. Electric vehicles don’t solve congestion, or the extreme lack of physical activity that contributes to our poor health.

So far, the government seems to have no interest in systemic change. It still plans to spend £27bn on building even more roads, presumably to accommodate all those new electric cars. An analysis by Transport for Quality of Life suggests that this road-building will cancel out 80% of the carbon savings from a switch to electric over the next 12 years. But everywhere, even in the government’s feted garden villages and garden towns, new developments are being built around the car.

Rail policy is just as irrational, even though lessons from large electric bus fleets offer cleaner mass transit options. The construction of HS2, now projected to cost £106bn, has accelerated in the past few months, destroying precious wild places along the way, though its weak business case has almost certainly been destroyed by coronavirus.

If one thing changes permanently as a result of the pandemic, it is likely to be travel. Many people will never return to the office. The great potential of remote technologies, so long untapped, is at last being realised. Having experienced quieter cities with cleaner air, few people wish to return to the filthy past.

Like several of the world’s major cities, our capital is being remodelled in response, though why electric buses haven’t taken over remains a live question. The London mayor – recognising that, while fewer passengers can use public transport, a switch to cars would cause gridlock and lethal pollution – has set aside road space for cycling and walking. Greater Manchester hopes to build 1,800 miles of protected pedestrian and bicycle routes.

Cycling to work is described by some doctors as “the miracle pill”, massively reducing the chances of early death: if you want to save the NHS, get on your bike. But support from central government is weak and contradictory, and involves a fraction of the money it is spending on new roads. The major impediment to a cycling revolution is the danger of being hit by a car.

Even a switch to bicycles (including electric bikes and scooters) is only part of the answer. Fundamentally, this is not a vehicle problem but an urban design problem. Or rather, it is an urban design problem created by our favoured vehicle. Cars have made everything bigger and further away. Paris, under its mayor Anne Hidalgo, is seeking to reverse this trend, by creating a “15-minute city”, in which districts that have been treated by transport planners as mere portals to somewhere else become self-sufficient communities – each with their own shops, parks, schools and workplaces, within a 15-minute walk of everyone’s home.

This, I believe, is the radical shift that all towns and cities need. It would transform our sense of belonging, our community life, our health and our prospects of local employment, while greatly reducing pollution, noise and danger. Transport has always been about much more than transport. The way we travel helps to determine the way we live. And at the moment, locked in our metal boxes, we do not live well.

 

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Harbour Air eyes 2023 for first electric passenger flights

Harbour Air Electric Seaplanes pioneer zero-emission aviation with battery-powered de Havilland Beaver flights, pursuing Transport Canada certification for safe, fossil fuel-free service across Vancouver Island routes connecting Vancouver, Victoria, Nanaimo, and beyond.

 

Key Points

Battery-powered, zero-emission floatplanes by Harbour Air pursuing Transport Canada certification to carry passengers.

✅ 29-minute test flight on battery power alone

✅ New lighter, longer-lasting battery supplier partnership

✅ Aiming to electrify entire 42-aircraft Beaver/Otter fleet

 

Float plane operator Harbour Air is getting closer to achieving its goal of flying to and from Vancouver Island without fossil fuels, following its first point-to-point electric flight milestone.

A recent flight of the company’s electric de Havilland Beaver test plane saw the aircraft remain aloft for 29 minutes on battery power alone, a sign of an emerging aviation revolution underway.

Harbour Air president Randy Wright says the company has joined with a new battery supplier to provide a lighter and longer-lasting power source, a high-flying example of research investment in the sector.

The company hopes to get Transport Canada certification to start carrying passengers on electric seaplanes by 2023, as projects like the electric-ready Kootenay Lake ferry come online.

"This is all new to Transport, so they've got to make sure it's safe just like our aircraft that are running today,” Wright said Wednesday. “They're working very hard at this to get this certified because it's a first in the world."

Parallel advances in marine electrification, such as electric ships on the B.C. coast, are informing clean-transport goals across the province.

Before the pandemic, Harbour Air flew approximately 30,000 commercial flights annually, along corridors also served by BC Ferries hybrid ships today, between Vancouver, Victoria, Nanaimo, Whistler, Seattle, Tofino, Salt Spring Island, the Sunshine Coast and Comox.

Wright says the company plans to eventually electrify its entire fleet of 42 de Havilland Beaver and Otter aircraft, reflecting a broader shift that includes CIB-backed electric ferries in B.C.

 

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