Within A Decade, We Will All Be Driving Electric Cars

Floating Solar at Fort Bragg delivers a 1 MW DoD-backed floatovoltaic array on Big Muddy Lake, boosting renewable energy, resilience, and efficiency via water cooling, with Duke Energy and Ameresco supporting backup power.

Key Points

A 1 MW floating PV array on Big Muddy Lake, built by the US Army to boost efficiency, resilience, and backup power.

✅ 1 MW array supplies backup power for training facilities.

✅ Water cooling improves panel efficiency and output.

✅ Partners: Duke Energy, Ameresco; DoD's first floating solar.

Floating solar had a moment in the spotlight over the weekend when the US Army unveiled a new solar plant sitting atop the Big Muddy Lake at Fort Bragg in North Carolina. It’s the first floating solar array deployed by the Department of Defense, and it’s part of a growing current of support in the US for “floatovoltaics” and other innovations like space-based solar research.

The army says its goal is to boost clean energy, support goals in the Biden solar plan for decarbonization, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and give the nearby training facility a source of backup energy during power outages. The panels will be able to generate about one megawatt of electricity, which can typically power about 190 homes, and, when paired with solar batteries, enhance resilience during extended outages.

The installation, the largest in the US Southeast, is a big win for floatovoltaics, and projects like South Korea’s planned floating plant show global momentum for the technology, which has yet to make a big splash in the US. They only make up 2 percent of solar installations annually in the country, according to Duke Energy, which collaborated with Fort Bragg and the renewable energy company Ameresco on the project, even as US solar and storage growth accelerates nationwide.

Upfront costs for floating solar have typically been slightly more expensive than for its land-based counterparts. The panels essentially sit on a sort of raft that’s tethered to the bottom of the body of water. But floatovoltaics come with unique benefits, complementing emerging ocean and river power approaches in water-based energy. Hotter temperatures make it harder for solar panels to produce as much power from the same amount of sunshine. Luckily, sitting atop water has a cooling effect, which allows the panels to generate more electricity than panels on land. That makes floating solar more efficient and makes up for higher installation costs over time.

And while solar in general has already become the cheapest electricity source globally, it’s pretty land-hungry, so complementary options like wave energy are drawing interest worldwide. A solar farm might take up 20 times more land than a fossil fuel power plant to produce a gigawatt of electricity. Solar projects in the US have already run into conflict with some farmers who want to use the same land, for example, and with some conservationists worried about the impact on desert ecosystems.

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Germany Solar Boom is accelerating amid energy security pressures, with photovoltaic capacity surging as renewables displace gas. Policy incentives, grid upgrades, and storage, plus agrivoltaics and rooftop systems, position solar as cornerstone of decarbonization.

Key Points

Germany Solar Boom is rapid PV growth enhancing energy security, cutting emissions, and expanding domestic, low-carbon electricity.

✅ Targets 250 GW PV by 2032 to meet rising electricity demand.

✅ Rooftop, agrivoltaics, and BIPV reduce land use and grid stress.

✅ Diversifies supply chains beyond China; boosts storage and flexibility.

Europe is in crisis mode. Climate change, increasing demand for energy, the war in Ukraine and Russia's subsequent throttling of oil and gas deliveries have pushed the continent into a new era.

Germany has been trapped in a corner. The country relies heavily on cheap imported natural gas to run its industries. Some power plants also use gas to produce electricity. Finding enough substitutes quickly is nearly impossible.

Ideas to prevent a looming power crisis in Germany have ranged from reducing demand to keeping nuclear power plants online past their official closing date at the end of the year. Large wind turbines are doing their part, but many people don't want them in their backyard.

Green activists have long believed renewable energies are the answer to keeping the lights on. But building up these capabilities takes time. Now many experts once again see solar power as a shining light at the end of the tunnel, as global renewables set fresh records worldwide. Some say a solar boom is in the making.

Before the war in Ukraine put energy security at the forefront, the new German government had already pledged that renewable sources — wind and solar — would make up 80% of electricity production by 2030 instead of 42% today. By 2035, electricity generation should be carbon neutral.

It is an ambitious plan, but the country seems to be on its way. July was the third month in a row when solar power output soared to a record level, trade publication pv magazine reported, and clean energy's share reached about 50% in Germany according to recent assessments. For the month, photovoltaic (PV) systems generated 8.23 ​​terawatt hours of power, around a fifth of net electricity production. They were only behind lignite-fired power plants, which brought in nearly 22% of net production. 

Solar cells hanging on a modular solar house during the Solar Decathlon Europe in Wuppertal, Germany
Solar panels can come in many different shapes and sizes, and be used in many different ways

Last year, Germany added more than 5 gigawatts of solar power capacity, 10% more than in 2020. That took the total solar power capacity to 59 gigawatts, overtaking installed onshore wind power capacity in Germany, pv magazine said in January. Last year's solar production was about 9% of gross electricity consumption, according to Harry Wirth, who is head of photovoltaic modules and power plant research at the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems in Freiburg.

"For 2032, the government target is around 250 gigawatts of solar energy. According to their estimates, electricity consumption will increase to 715 terawatt hours by 2030," Wirth told DW. A different study by consultancy McKinsey says this is the lower limit. "So if we assume 730 terawatt hours for 2032, we would be at around 30% photovoltaic electricity in gross electricity consumption," he added. 

The energy expert also envisions great potential to install more solar panels without taking up valuable land. Besides adding them on top of parking garages or buildings, photovoltaic parts can be integrated into the exterior of buildings or even on the outside of e-vehicles. This would "not only produce electricity on surfaces already in use, but it would also create synergies in its own application," said Wirth.

Foreign investment in German solar
It is not just researchers that are taking note. Big businesses are stepping in too. In July, Portuguese clean energy firm EDP Renovaveis (EDPR) announced it had agreed to take a 70% interest in Germany's Kronos Solar Projects, a solar developer, for €250 million ($254 million).

The Munich-based company has a portfolio of 9.4 gigawatts of solar projects in different stages of development in Germany, France, the Netherlands and the UK, according to the press release announcing the purchase. Germany represents close to 50% of the acquired solar portfolio.

EDPR, which claims to be the fourth-largest renewable energy producer worldwide, said it generated 17.8 terawatt hours of clean energy in the first half of 2022.

Miguel Stilwell d'Andrade, chief executive of EDPR and its parent EDP, said they have great expectations from Germany in particular as "it is a key market in Europe with reinforced renewable growth targets." 

Fabian Karthaus is one of the first farmers in Germany to grow raspberries and blueberries under photovoltaic panels. His solar field near the city of Paderborn in northwestern Germany is 0.4 hectares (about 1 acre), but he would like to expand it to 10. He could then generate enough electricity for around 4,000 households — and provide more berries for supermarkets.

Germany was once a leader in solar power. For many years the country enjoyed a large share of the world's total solar capacities. A lot of that early success had to do with innovative government support. That support, however, proved too successful for some as a fall in wholesale electricity prices in Northern Europe hurt the profits of power companies, leading to calls for a change in the rules.

Updated regulations, and changes to the Renewable Energy Sources Act that reduced feed-in tariffs slowed things down. Feed-in tariffs usually grant long-term grid access and above-market price guarantees in an effort to support fledgling industries.

With less direct financial incentives, the industry was neglected leaving it open for competitors. The pace of solar infrastructure growth has also been hampered by issues of red tape, supply chain backlogs, a lack of skilled technicians and, despite solar-plus-storage now undercutting conventional power in Germany, a shortage of storage for electricity produced when it is not needed.

Now the war in Ukraine and Europe's dependency on Russia is refocusing efforts and "will strengthen the determination for an ambitious PV expansion," said Wirth. But the biggest challenge to the region's solar industry remains China.

Public buildings can play a big role, not just because of their size, but because the government is in charge of them

An overreliance on China
China took an early interest in photovoltaic technology and soon galloped past countries like the US, Japan and Germany thanks to huge state subsidies that manufacturers enjoyed. Today, it has become the place to go for all things solar, even as Europe turns to US solar equipment suppliers to diversify procurement.

A new report from the International Energy Agency puts it into numbers. "China has invested over $50 billion in new PV supply capacity — 10 times more than Europe — and created more than 300,000 manufacturing jobs across the solar PV value chain since 2011."

Today China has over 80% of all solar panel manufacturing capacity and is home to the top-10 suppliers of photovoltaic manufacturing equipment. Such a high concentration has led to some incredible realities, like the fact that "one out of every seven panels produced worldwide is manufactured by a single facility," according to the report.

These economies of scale have brought down costs, and the country can make solar components 35% cheaper than in Europe. This gives China outsized power and makes the industry susceptible to supply chain bottlenecks. To diversify the industry and get back some of this market, Europe needs to invest in innovation and make solar growth a top priority.

Germany has several high-tech photovoltaic manufacturers and research institutes. But it only has one manufacturer of solar cells specializing in high-performance heterojunction technology, says Wirth. Yet even though the European photovoltaic industry is fragmented and not what it once was, he is still counting on big demand for solar technology in the foreseeable future, with markets like Poland accelerating adoption across the region. 

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Canada EV-ready rules for MURBs vary by city, with municipal bylaws dictating at-home Level 2 charging in condos, apartments, strata, and townhomes; BC leads, others evaluating updates to building codes.

Key Points

Municipal bylaws mandate EV-ready, Level 2 charging in multi-unit housing; requirements vary by city.

✅ No federal/provincial mandates; municipal bylaws set EV access.

✅ B.C. leads; many cities require 100% EV-ready residential stalls.

✅ Other cities are evaluating code changes; enforcement varies widely.

An absence of federal, provincial rules for EV charging in Canada’s condos, apartment buildings, strata or townhomes punts the issue to municipalities and leaves many strata owners to fend for themselves, finds Electric Autonomy’s cross-Canada guide to municipal building code regulations for EV charging in MURBs

When it comes to reducing barriers to electric vehicle adoption in Canada, one of the most critical steps governments can do is to help provide access to at-home EV charging.

While this is usually not a complicated undertaking in single-unit dwellings, in multi-unit residential buildings (MURBs) which includes apartments, condos, strata and townhomes, the situation and the experience is quite varied for Canadian EV drivers, and retrofitting condos can add complexity depending on the city in which they live.

In Canada, there are no regulations in the national building code that require new or existing condos, apartment buildings, strata or townhomes to offer EV charging. Provinces and territories are able to create their own building laws and codes, but none have added anything yet to support EV charging. Instead, some municipalities are provided with the latitude by their respective provinces to amend local bylaws and add regulations that will require multi-residential units — both new builds and existing ones — to be EV-ready.

The result is that the experience and process of MURB residents getting EV charging infrastructure access is highly fragmented across Canada.

In order to bring more transparency, Electric Autonomy Canada has compiled a roundup of all the municipalities in Canada with existing regulations that require all new constructions to be EV-ready for the future and those cities that have announced publicly they are considering implementing the same.

The tally shows that 21 cities in British Columbia and one city in both Quebec and Ontario have put in place some EV-ready regulations. There are eight other municipalities in Alberta, Saskatchewan, Ontario, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland evaluating their own building code amendments, including Calgary’s condo charging expansion initiatives across apartments and condos.

No municipalities in Manitoba, Prince Edward Island and New Brunswick have any regulations around this. City councils in Edmonton, Saskatoon, Hamilton, Sarnia, Halifax and St. John’s have started looking into it, but no regulations have officially been made.

British Columbia
B.C. is, by far, Canada’s most advanced province in terms of having mandates for EV charging access in condos, apartment buildings, strata or townhomes, leading the country in expanding EV charging with 20 cities with modified building codes to stipulate EV-readiness requirements and one city in the process of implementing them.

City of Vancouver: Bylaw 10908 – Section 10.2.3. was amended on July 1, 2014, to include provisions for Level 2 EV charging infrastructure at all residential and commercial buildings. On March 14, 2018, the bylaw was updated to adopt a 100 per cent EV-ready policy from 20 per cent to 100 per cent. The current bylaw also requires one EV-ready stall for single-family residences with garages and 10 per cent of parking stalls to be EV-ready for commercial buildings.

City of Burnaby: Zoning Bylaw 13903 – Section 800.8, which took effect on September 1st, required Level 2 energized outlets in all new residential parking spaces. This includes both single-family homes and multi-unit residential buildings. Parking spaces for secondary suites and visitor parking are exempt, but all other stalls in new buildings must be 100 per cent EV-ready.

City of Nelson: The city amended its Off-Street Parking and Landscaping Bylaw No. 3274 – Section 7.4 in 2019 to have at least one parking space per dwelling unit feature
Level 2 charging or higher in new single-family and multi-unit residential buildings, starting in 2020. For every 10 parking spaces available at a dwelling, two stalls must have Level 2 charging capabilities.

City of Coquitlam: The Zoning Bylaw No. 4905 – Section 714 was amended on October 29, 2018, to require all new construction, including single-family residences and MURBs, to have a minimum of one energized outlet capable of Level 2 charging or higher for every dwelling unit. Parking spaces designated for visitors are exempt.

If the number of parking spaces is less than the number of dwelling units, all residential parking spots must have an energized outlet with Level 2 or higher charging capabilities.

City of North Vancouver: According to Zoning Bylaw No. 6700 – Section 909, all parking spaces in all new residential multi-family buildings must include Level 2 EV charging infrastructure as of June 2019 and 10 per cent of residential visitor parking spaces must include Level 2 EV charging infrastructure as of Jan. 2022.

District of North Vancouver: Per the Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Policy, updated on March 17, 2021, all parking stalls — not including visitor parking — must feature energized outlets capable of providing Level 2 charging or higher for multi-family residences.

City of New Westminster: As of April 1, 2019, all new buildings with at least one residential unit are required to have a Level 2 energized outlet to the residential parking spaces, according to Electric Vehicle Ready Infrastructure Zoning Bylaw 8040, 2018. Energized Level 2 outlets will not be required for visitor parking spaces.

City of Port Moody: Zoning Bylaw No. 2937 – Section 6.11 mandated that all spaces in new residential constructions starting from March 1, 2019, required an energized outlet capable of Level 2 charging. A minimum of 20 per cent of spaces in new commercial constructions from March 1, 2019, required an energized outlet capable of Level 2 charging.

City of Richmond: All new buildings and residential parking spaces from April 1, 2018, excluding those provided for visitors’ use, have had an energized outlet capable of providing Level 2 charging or higher to the parking space, says Zoning Bylaw 8500 – Section 7.15.

District of Saanich: Zoning Bylaw No. 8200 – Section 7 specified that all new residential MURBs are required to provide Level 2 charging after Sept. 1, 2020.

District of Squamish: Bylaw No. 2610, 2018 Subsection 41.11(f) required 100 per cent of off-street parking stalls to have charging infrastructure starting from July 24, 201, in any shared parking areas for multiple-unit residential uses.

City of Surrey: Zoning By-law No. 12000 – Part 5(7) was amended on February 25, 2019 to say builders must construct and install an energized electrical outlet for 100 per cent of residential parking spaces, with home and workplace charging rebates helping adoption, 50 per cent of visitor parking spaces, and 20 per cent of commercial parking spaces. Each energized electrical outlet must be capable of providing Level 2 or a higher level of electric vehicle charging

District of West Vancouver: Per Zoning Bylaw No. 4662 – Sections 142.10; 141.01(4), new dwelling units, all parking spaces for residential use, except visitor parking, need to include an energized outlet that is: (a) capable of providing Level 2 charging for an electric vehicle; (b) labelled for the use of electric vehicle charging.

City of Victoria: In effect since October 1, 2020, the Zoning Bylaw No. 80-159 – Schedule C Section 2.4 stipulates that all residential parking spaces in new residential developments must have an energized electrical outlet installed that can provide Level 2 charging for an electric vehicle, and residents can access EV charger rebates to offset costs. This requirement applies to both single-family and multi-unit residential dwellings but not visitor parking spaces.

Township of Langley: In Zoning Bylaw No. 2500 – Section 107.3, all new residential construction, including single-home dwellings, townhouses and apartments, required one space per dwelling unit to have EV charging requirements, starting from Nov. 4, 2019.

Town of View Royal: As per Zoning Bylaw No. 900 – Section 5.13, every commercial or multi-unit residential construction with more than 100 parking spots must provide an accessible electric vehicle charging station on the premises for patrons or residents. This bylaw was adopted on Feb. 2021.

Nanaimo: According to the Off-Street Parking Regulations Bylaw No. 7266 – Section 7.7, a minimum of 25 per cent of all off-street parking spots in any common parking area for multifamily residential housing must have shared access to a Level 2 EV charging, and have an electrical outlet box wired with a separate branch circuit capable of supplying electricity to support both Level 1 and Level 2 charging.

Port Coquitlam: For residential buildings that do not have a common parking area, one parking space per dwelling unit is required to provide “roughed-in” charging infrastructure, put in effect on Jan. 23, 2018. This must include an electrical outlet box located within three metres of the unit’s parking space, according to Zoning Bylaw No. 3630 – Section 2.5.10;11. For a residential building with a common parking area, a separate single utility electrical meter and disconnect should be provided in line with the electrical panel(s) intended to provide EV charging located within three metres of the parking space.

Maple Ridge: The city’s Bylaw No. 4350-1990 – Schedule F says for apartments, each parking space provided for residential use, excluding visitor parking spaces, will be required to have roughed-in infrastructure capable of providing Level 2 charging.

Apartments and townhouses with a minimum of 50 per cent of required visitor parking spaces will need partial infrastructure capable of Level 2 charging.

White Rock: The city is currently considering changes to its Zoning Bylaw, 2012, No. 2000. On March 18, 2021, the Environmental Advisory Committee presented recommendations that would require all resident parking stalls to be Level 2 EV-ready in new multi-unit residential buildings and 50 per cent of visitor parking stalls to be Level 2 EV-ready in new multi-unit residential buildings.

Kamloops: The city of Kamloops is looking to draft a zoning amendment bylaw that would require new residential developments, all new single-family, single-family with a secondary suite, two-family, and multi-family residential developments, to have EV-ready parking with one parking stall per dwelling unit, at the beginning of Jan. 1, 2023.

Kamloops’ sustainability services supervisor Glen Cheetham told Electric Autonomy Canada in an email statement that the city’s council has given direction to staff to “conduct one final round of engagement with industry before bringing the zoning amendment bylaw to Council mid-June for first and second reading, followed by a public hearing and third reading/approval.”

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Harbour Air Electric Seaplane completes a point-to-point test flight, showcasing electric aircraft innovation, zero-emission short-haul travel, H55 battery technology, and magniX propulsion between Vancouver and Victoria, advancing sustainable aviation and urban air mobility.

Key Points

Retrofitted DHC-2 Beaver testing zero-emission short-haul flights with H55 batteries and magniX propulsion.

✅ 74 km in 24 minutes, Vancouver to Victoria test route

✅ H55 battery pack and magniX electric motor integration

✅ Aims to certify short-haul, zero-emission commercial service

A seaplane airline in Vancouver says it has achieved a new goal in its development of an electric aircraft.

Harbour Air Seaplanes said in a release about its first electric passenger flights timeline that it completed its first direct point-to-point test flight on Wednesday by flying 74 kilometres in 24 minutes from a terminal on the Fraser River near Vancouver International Airport to a bay near Victoria International Airport.

"We're really excited about this project and what it means for us and what it means for the electric aviation revolution to be able to keep pushing that forward," said Erika Holtz, who leads the project for the company.

Harbour Air, founded in 1982, uses small propeller planes to fly commercial flights between the Lower Mainland, Seattle, Vancouver Island, the Gulf Islands and Whistler.

In the last few years it has turned its attention to becoming a leader in green urban mobility, as seen with electric ships on the B.C. coast, which would do away with the need to burn fossil fuels, a major contributor to climate change, for air travel.

In December 2019, a pilot flew one of Harbour Air's planes — a more than 60-year-old DHC-2 de Havilland Beaver floatplane that had been outfitted with a Seattle-based company's electric propulsion system, magniX — for three minutes over Richmond.

Since then, the company has continued to fine-tune the plane and conduct test flights in order to meet federally regulated criteria for Canada's first commercial electric flight, showing it can safely fly with passengers.

Harbour Air's new fully electric seaplane flew over the Fraser River for three minutes today in its debut test flight.
Holtz said flying point-to-point this week was a significant step forward.

"Having this electric aircraft be able to prove that it can do scheduled flights, it moves us that step closer to being able to completely convert our entire fleet to electric," she said.

All the test flights so far have been made with only a pilot on board.

Vancouver seaplane company to resume test flights with electric commercial airplane
The ePlane will stay in Victoria for the weekend as part of an open house put on by the B.C. Aviation Museum before returning to Richmond.

A yellow seaplane flies over a body of water with the Vancouver skyline visible in the background.
A prototype all-electric floatplane made by B.C.'s Harbour Air Seaplanes on a test flight in Vancouver in 2021. (Harbour Air Seaplanes)
Early in Harbour Air's undertaking to develop an all-electric airplane, experts who study the aviation sector said Harbour Air would have to find a way to make the plane light enough to carry heavy lithium batteries and passengers, without exceeding weight limits for the plane.

Werner Antweiler, a professor of economics at UBC's Sauder School of Business who studies the commercialization of novel technologies around mobility, said in 2021 that Harbour Air's challenge would be proving to regulators that the plane was safe to fly and the batteries powerful enough to complete short-haul flights with power to spare.

In April 2021 Harbour Air partnered with Swiss company H55 to incorporate its battery technology, reflecting ongoing research investment to limit weight and improve the distance the plane could fly.

Shawn Braiden, a vice-president with Harbour Air, said the company is trying to get as much power as possible from the lightest possible batteries, a challenge shared by BC Ferries' hybrid ships as well. 

"It's a balancing act," he said.

In December, Harbour Air announced it had begun work on converting a second de Havilland Beaver to an all-electric airplane, copying the original prototype.

The plan is to retrofit version two of the ePlane with room for a pilot plus three passengers. If certified for commercial use, it could become one of the first all-electric commercial passenger planes operating in the world.

Seth Wynes, a post-doctoral fellow at Concordia University who has studied how to de-carbonize the aviation industry, said Harbour Air's progress on its eplane project won't solve the pollution problem of long-haul flights, but could inspire other short-haul airlines to follow suit, alongside initiatives like electric ferries in B.C. that expand low-carbon transportation. 

"It's also just really helpful to pilot these technologies and get them going where they can be scaled up and used in a bunch of different places around the world," he said. "So that's why Harbour Air making progress on this front is exciting."

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Pyroelectric Energy Harvesting captures low-grade heat via thin-film materials, converting temperature fluctuations into power for waste heat recovery in electronics, vehicles, and industrial machinery, offering a thermoelectric alternative for microelectronics and exascale systems.

Key Points

Thin-film pyroelectric harvesting turns temperature changes into electricity, enabling low-grade waste heat recovery.

✅ Converts low-grade heat fluctuations into usable power

✅ Thin-film design suits microelectronics and edge devices

✅ Alternative to thermoelectrics for waste heat recovery

The electronic device you are reading this on is currently producing a modest to significant amount of waste heat that emerging thermoelectric materials could help recover in principle. In fact, nearly 70% of the energy produced annually in the US is ultimately wasted as heat, much of it less than 100 degrees Celsius. The main culprits are computers and other electronic devices, vehicles, as well as industrial machinery. Heat waste is also a big problem for supercomputers, because as more circuitry is condensed into smaller and smaller areas, the hotter those microcircuits get.

It’s also been estimated that a single next-generation exascale supercomputer could feasibly use up to 10% of the energy output of just one coal-fired power station, and that nearly all of that energy would ultimately be wasted as heat.

What if it were possible to convert that heat energy into a useable energy source, and even to generate electricity at night from temperature differences as well?

#google#

It’s not a new idea, of course. In fact the possibility of thermoelectric energy generation, where thermal energy is turned into electricity was recognised as early as 1821, around the same time that Michael Faraday developed the electric motor.

Unfortunately, when the heat source is ‘low grade’, aka less than 100 degrees Celsius, a number of limitations arise, and related approaches for nighttime renewable generation face similar challenges as well. For it to work well, you need materials that have quite high electrical conductivity, but low thermal conductivity. It’s not an easy combination to come by.

Taking a different approach, researchers at the University of California, Berkeley, have developed thin-film that uses pyroelectric harvesting to capture heat-waste and convert heat to electricity in prototype demonstrations. The findings were published today in Nature Materials.

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Canada 2023 Clean Energy Outlook highlights decarbonization, renewables, a net-zero grid by 2035, hydrogen, energy storage, EV mandates, carbon pricing, and critical minerals, aligning with IRA incentives and provincial policies to accelerate the transition.

Key Points

A concise overview of Canada's 2023 path to net-zero: renewables, clean grids, storage, EVs, and hydrogen.

✅ Net-zero electricity regulations target 2035

✅ Alberta leads PPAs and renewables via deregulated markets

✅ Tax credits boost storage, hydrogen, EVs, and critical minerals

The year 2022 may go down as the most successful one yet for climate action. It was marked by monumental shifts in energy policy from governments, two COP meetings and heightened awareness of the private sector's duty to act.

In the U.S., the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) was the largest federal legislation to tackle climate change, injecting $369 billion of tax credits and incentives for clean energy, Biden's EV agenda and carbon capture, energy storage, energy efficiency and research.

The European Union accelerated its green policies to transition away from fossil fuels and overhauled its carbon market. China and India made strides on clean energy and strengthened climate policies. The International Energy Agency made its largest revision yet as renewables continued to proliferate.

The U.S. ratified the Kigali Amendment, one of the strongest global climate policies to date.

Canada was no different. The 2022 Fall Economic Statement was announced to respond to the IRA, offering an investment tax credit for renewables, clean technology and green hydrogen alongside the Canada Growth Fund. The federal government also proposed a 2035 deadline for clean electrical grids and a federal zero-emissions vehicle (ZEV) sales mandate for light-duty vehicles.

With the momentum set, more action is promised in 2023: Canadian governments are expected to unveil firmer details for the decarbonization of electricity grids to meet 2035 deadlines; Alberta is poised to be an unlikely leader in clean energy.

Greater attention will be put on energy storage and critical minerals. Even an expected economic downturn is unlikely to stop the ball that is rolling.

Shane Doig, the head of energy and natural resources at KPMG in Canada, said events in 2022 demonstrated the complexity of the energy transformation and opened “a more balanced conversation around how Canada can transition to a lower carbon footprint, whilst balancing the need for affordable, readily available electricity.”

Expect further developments on clean electricity
2023 shapes up as a crucial year for Canada’s clean electricity grid.

The federal government announced it will pursue a net-zero electricity grid by 2035 under the Clean Electricity Regulations (CER) framework.

It requires mass renewable and clean energy adoption, phasing out fossil fuel electricity generation, rapid electrification and upgrading transmission and storage while accommodating growth in electricity demand.

The first regulations for consultation are expected early in 2023. The plans will lay out pollution regulations and costs for generating assets to accelerate clean energy adoption, according to Evan Pivnick, the clean energy program manager of Clean Energy Canada.

The Independent Energy System Operator of Ontario (IESO) recently published a three-part report suggesting a net-zero conversion for Ontario could cost $400 billion over 25 years, even as the province weighs an electricity market reshuffle to keep up with increasing electricity demand.

Power Utility released research by The Atmospheric Fund that suggests Ontario could reach a net-zero grid by 2035 across various scenarios, despite ongoing debates about Ontario's hydro plan and rate design.

Dale Beguin, executive vice president at the Canadian Climate Institute, said in 2023 he hopes to see more provincial regulators and governments send “strong signals to the utilities” that a pathway to net-zero is realistic.

He recounted increasing talk from investors in facilities such as automotive plants and steel mills who want clean electricity guarantees before making investments. “Clean energy is a comparative advantage,” he said, which puts the imperative on organizations like the IESO to lay out plans for bigger, cleaner and flexible grids.

Beguin and Pivnick said they are watching British Columbia closely because of a government mandate letter setting a climate-aligned energy framework and a new mandate for the British Columbia Utilities Commission. Pivnick said there may be lessons to be drawn for other jurisdictions.

Alberta’s unlikely rise as a clean energy leader
Though Alberta sits at the heart of Canada’s oil and gas industry and at the core of political resistance to climate policy, it has emerged as a front runner in renewables adoption.

Billion of dollars for wind and solar projects have flowed into Alberta, as the province charts a path to clean electricity with large-scale projects.

Pivnick said an “underappreciated story” is how Alberta leaned into renewables through its “unique market.” Alberta leads in renewables and power purchase agreements because of its deregulated electricity market.

Unlike most provinces, Alberta enables companies to go directly to solar and wind developers to strike deals, a model reinforced under Kenney's electricity policies in recent years, rather than through utilities. It incentivizes private investment, lowers costs and helps meet increasing demand, which Nagwan Al-Guneid, the director of the Business Renewables Centre - Canada at the Pembina Institute, said is “is the No. 1 reason we see this boom in renewables in Alberta.”

Beguin noted Alberta’s innovative ‘reverse auctions,’ where the province sets a competitive bidding process to provide electricity. It ended up making electricity “way cheaper” due to the economic competitiveness of renewables, while Alberta profited and added clean energy to its grid.

In 2019, the Business Renewables Centre-Canada established a target of 2 GW of renewable energy deals by 2025. The target was exceeded in 2022, which led to a revised goal for 10 GW of renewables by 2030.

Al-Guneid wants to see other jurisdictions help more companies buy renewables. She does not universally prescribe deregulation, however, as other mechanisms such as sleeving exist.

Alberta will update its industrial carbon pricing in 2023, requiring large emitters to pay $65 per tonne of carbon dioxide. The fee climbs $15 per tonne each year until it reaches $175 per tonne in 2030. Al-Guneid said as the tax increases, demand for renewable energy certificates will also increase in Alberta.

Pivnick noted Alberta will have an election in 2023, which could have ramifications for energy policy.

Batteries and EV leadership
Manufacturing clean energy equipment, batteries and storage requires enormous quantities of minerals. With the 2022 Fall Economic Statement and the Critical Minerals Strategy, Canada is taking important steps to lead on this front.

Pivnick pointed to battery supply chain investments in Ontario and Quebec as part of Canada’s shift from “a fuel-based (economy) to a materials-based economy” to provide materials necessary for wind turbines and solar panels. The Strategy showed an understanding Canada has a major role to meet its allies’ needs for critical minerals, whether it’s the resources or supply chains.

There is also an opportunity for Canada to forge ahead on energy storage. The Fall Economic Statement proposes a 30 per cent tax credit for investments into energy storage. Pivnick suggested Canada invest further into research and development to explore innovations like green hydrogen and pump storage.

Doig believes Canada is “well poised” for batteries, both in terms of the technology and sustainable mining of minerals like cobalt, lithium and copper. He is bullish for Canada’s electrification based on its clean energy use and increased spending on renewables and energy storage.

He said the federal ZEV mandate will drive increased demand for the power, utilities, and oil and gas industries to respond.

The majority of gas stations, which are owned by the nation’s energy industry, will need to be converted into EV charging stations.

Offsetting a recession 
One challenge will be a poor economic forecast in the near term. A short "technical recession" is expected in 2023.

Inflation remains stubbornly high, which has forced the Bank of Canada to hike interest rates. The conditions will not leave any industry unscathed, but Doig said Canada's decarbonization is unlikely to be halted.

“Whilst a recession would slow things down, the concern around energy security definitely helps offset that concern,” he said.

Amid rising trade frictions and tariff threats, energy security is top of mind for governments and private organizations, accelerating the shift to renewables.

Doig said there is a general feeling a recession would be short-lived, meaning it would be unlikely to impact long-term projects in hydrogen, liquified natural gas, carbon capture and wind and solar.

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