Within A Decade, We Will All Be Driving Electric Cars


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Electric Vehicle Price Parity 2027 signals cheaper EV manufacturing as battery costs plunge, widening model lineups, and tighter EU emissions rules; UBS and BloombergNEF foresee parity, with TCO advantages over ICE amid growing fast-charging networks.

 

Key Points

EV cost parity in 2027 when manufacturing undercuts ICE, led by cheaper batteries, wider lineups, and emissions policy.

✅ Battery costs drop 58% next decade, after 88% fall

✅ Manufacturing parity across segments from 2027

✅ TCO favors EVs; charging networks expand globally

 

A Bloomberg/NEF report commissioned by Transport & Environment forecasts 2027 as the year when electric vehicles will start to become cheaper to manufacture than their internal combustion equivalents across all segments, aligning with analyses that the EV age is arriving ahead of schedule for consumers and manufacturers alike, mainly due to a sharp drop in battery prices and the appearance of new models by more manufacturers.

Batteries, which have fallen in price by 88% over the past decade and are expected to plunge by a further 58% over the next 10 years, make up between one-quarter and two-fifths of the total price of a vehicle. The average pre-tax price of a mid-range electric vehicle is around €33,300, and higher upfront prices concern many UK buyers compared to €18,600 for its diesel or gasoline equivalent. In 2026, both are expected to cost around €19,000, while in 2030, the same electric car will cost €16,300 before tax, while its internal combustion equivalent will cost €19,900, and that’s without factoring in government incentives.

Other reports, such as a recent one by UBS, put the date of parity a few years earlier, by 2024, after which they say there will be little reason left to buy a non-electric vehicle, as the market has expanded from near zero to 2 million in just five years.

In Europe, carmakers will become a particular stakeholder in this transition due to heavy fines for exceeding emissions limits calculated on the basis of the total number of vehicles sold. Increasing the percentage of electric vehicles in the annual sales portfolio is seen by the industry as the only way to avoid these fines. In addition to brands such as Bentley or Jaguar Land Rover, which have announced the total abandonment of internal combustion engine technology by 2025, or Volvo, which has set 2030 as the target date, other companies such as Ford, which is postponing this date in its home market, also set 2030 for the European market, which clearly demonstrates the suitability of this type of policy.

Nevertheless internal combustion vehicles will continue to travel on the roads or will be resold in developing countries. In addition to the price factor, which is even more accentuated when estimates are carried out in terms of total cost of ownership calculations due to the lower cost of electric recharging versus fuel and lower maintenance requirements, other factors such as the availability of fast charging networks must be taken into account.

While price parity is approaching, it is worth thinking about the factors that are causing car sales, which are still behind gasoline models in share, to suffer: the chip crisis, which is strongly affecting the automotive industry and will most likely extend until 2022, is creating production problems and the elimination of numerous advanced electronic options in many models, which reduces the incentive to purchase a vehicle at the present time. These types of reasons could lead some consumers to postpone purchasing a vehicle precisely when we may be talking about the final years for internal combustion technology, which would increase the likelihood that, later on and as the price gap closes, they would opt for an electric vehicle.

Finally, in the United States, the ambitious infrastructure plan put in place by the Biden administration also promises to accelerate the transition to electric vehicles by addressing key barriers to mainstream adoption such as charging access, which in turn is fueling the interest of automotive companies to have more electric vehicles in their range. In Europe, meanwhile, more Chinese brands offering electric vehicles are beginning to enter the most advanced markets, such as Norway and the Netherlands, with plans to expand to the rest of the continent with very competitive offers in terms of price.

One way or another, the future of the automotive industry is electric, and the transition will take place during the remainder of this decade. You might want to think about it if you are weighing whether it’s time to buy an electric car this year.

 

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Ontario Making it Easier to Build Electric Vehicle Charging Stations

Ontario EV Charger Streamlining accelerates public charging connections with OEB-led standardized forms, firm timelines, and utility coordination, leveraging Ontario’s clean electricity grid to expand reliable infrastructure across urban, rural, and northern communities.

 

Key Points

An OEB-led, provincewide procedure that standardizes EV charger connections and accelerates public charging.

✅ Standardized forms, data, and responsibilities across 58 utilities

✅ Firm timelines for studies, approvals, and grid connection upgrades

✅ Supports rural, northern, highway, and community charging expansion

 

The Ontario government is making it easier to build and connect new public electric vehicle (EV) chargers to the province’s world-class clean electricity grid. Starting May 27, 2024, all local utilities will follow a streamlined process for EV charging connections that will make it easier to set up new charging stations and, as network progress to date shows, support the adoption of electric vehicles in Ontario.

“As the number of EV owners in Ontario continues to grow, our government is making it easier to put shovels in the ground to build the critical infrastructure needed for drivers to charge their vehicles where and when they need to,” said Todd Smith, Minister of Energy. “This is just another step we are taking to reduce red tape, increase EV adoption, and use our clean electricity supply to support the electrification of Ontario’s transportation sector.”

Today, each of Ontario’s 58 local electricity utilities have different procedures for connecting new public EV charging stations, with different timelines, information requirements and responsibilities for customers.

In response to Minister Smith’s Letter of Direction, which called on the Ontario Energy Board (OEB) to take steps to facilitate the efficient integration of EV’s into the provincial electricity system, including vehicle-to-building charging applications, the OEB issued provincewide, streamlined procedures that all local utilities must follow for installing and connecting new EV charging infrastructure. This new procedure includes the implementation of standardized forms, timelines, and information requirements which will make it easier for EV charging providers to deploy chargers in all regions of the province.

“Our government is paving the way to an electric future by building the EV charging infrastructure drivers need, where they need it,” said Prabmeet Sarkaria, Minister of Transportation. “By increasing the accessibility of public EV charging stations across the province, including for rural and northern communities, we are providing more sustainable and convenient travel options for drivers.”

“Having attracted over $28 billion in automotive investments in the last three years, our province is a leading jurisdiction in the global production and development of EVs,” said Vic Fedeli, Minister of Economic Development, Job Creation and Trade. “By making it easier to build public charging infrastructure, our government is supporting Ontario’s growing end-to-end EV supply chain and ensuring EV drivers can confidently and conveniently power their journeys.”

This initiative is part of the government’s larger plan to support the adoption of electric vehicles and make EV charging infrastructure more accessible, which includes:

  • The EV ChargeON program – a $91 million investment to support the installation of public EV chargers, including emerging V1G chargers to support grid-friendly deployment, outside of Ontario’s large urban centres, including at community hubs, Ontario’s highway rest areas, carpool parking lots, and Ontario Parks.
  • The new Ultra-Low Overnight price plan which allows customers who use more electricity at night, including those charging their EV, to save up to $90 per year by shifting demand to the ultra-low overnight rate period when provincewide electricity demand is lower and to participate in programs that let them sell electricity back to the grid when appropriate.
  • Making it more convenient for electric vehicle (EV) owners to travel the province with EV fast chargers now installed at all 20 renovated ONroute stations along the province’s busiest highways, the 400 and 401.

The initiative also builds on the government’s Driving Prosperity: The Future of Ontario’s Automotive Sector plan which aims to create a domestic EV battery ecosystem in the province, expand energy storage capacity, and position Ontario as a North American automotive innovation hub by working to support the continued transition to electric, low carbon, connected and autonomous vehicles.

 

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New Brunswick announces rebate program for electric vehicles

New Brunswick EV Rebates deliver stackable provincial and federal incentives for electric vehicles, used EVs, and home chargers, supporting NB Power infrastructure, lower GHG emissions, and climate goals with fast chargers across the province.

 

Key Points

Stackable provincial and federal incentives up to $10,000 for EV purchases, plus support for home charging.

✅ $5,000 new EVs; $2,500 used; stackable with federal $5,000

✅ 50% home charger rebate up to $750 through NB Power

✅ Supports GHG cuts, charging network growth, climate targets

 

New Brunswickers looking for an electric vehicle (EV) can now claim up to $10,000 in rebates from the provincial and federal governments.

The three-year provincial program was announced Thursday and will give rebates of $5,000 on new EVs and $2,500 on used ones. It closely mirrors the federal program and is stackable, meaning new owners will be able to claim up to $5,000 from the feds as well.

Minister of Environment and Climate Change Gary Crossman said the move is hoped to kickstart the province’s push toward a target of having 20,000 EVs on the road by 2030.

“This incentive has to make a positive difference,” Crossman said.

“I truly believe people have been waiting for it, they’ve been asking about it, and this will make a difference from today moving forward to put new or used cars in their hands.”

The first year of the program will cost $1.95 million, which will come from the $36 million in the Climate Change Fund and will be run by NB Power, whose public charging network has been expanding across the province. The department says if the full amount is used this year it could represent a reduction of 850 tonnes of greenhouse gasses (GHGs) annually.

Both the Liberal and Green parties welcomed the move calling it long overdue, but Green MLA Kevin Arseneau said it’s not a “miracle solution.”

“Yes, we need to electrify cars, but this kind of initiative without proper funding of public transportation, urban planning for biking … without this kind of global approach this is just another swipe of a sword in water,” he said.

Liberal environment critic Francine Landry says she hopes this will make the difference for those considering the purchase of an EV and says the government should consider further methods of incentivization like waiving registration fees.

The province’s adoption of EVs has not been overly successful so far, reflecting broader Atlantic EV buying interest trends across the region. At the end of 2020, there were 646 EVs registered in the province, far short of the 2,500 target set out in the Climate Action Plan. That was up significantly from the 437 at the end of 2019, but still a long way from the goal.

New Brunswick has a fairly expansive network of charging stations across the province, claiming to be the first “fully-connected province” in the country, and had hoped that the available infrastructure, including plans for new fast-charging stations on the Trans-Canada, would push adoption of non-emitting vehicles.

“In 2017 we had 11 chargers in the province, so we’ve come a long way from an infrastructure standpoint which I think is critical to promoting or having an electric vehicle network, or a number of electric vehicles operating in the province, and neighbouring N.L.’s fast-charging network shows similar progress,” said Deputy Minister of Natural Resources Tom Macfarlane at a meeting of the standing committee on climate change and environmental stewardship in January of 2020.

There are now 172 level two chargers and 83 fast chargers, while Labrador’s EV infrastructure still lags in neighbouring N.L. today. Level two chargers take between six and eight hours to charge a vehicle, while the fast chargers take about half an hour to get to 80 per cent charge.

The newly announced program will also cover 50 per cent of costs for a home charging station up to $750, similar to B.C. charger rebates that support home infrastructure, to further address infrastructure needs.

The New Brunswick Lung Association is applauding the rebate plan.

President and CEO Melanie Langille said about 15,000 Canadians, including 40 people from New Brunswick, die prematurely each year from air pollution. She said vehicle emissions account for about 30 per cent of the province’s air pollution.

“Electric vehicles are critical to reducing our greenhouse gas emissions,” said Langille. “New Brunswick has one of the highest per capita GHG emissions in Canada. But, because our electricity source in New Brunswick is primarily from non-emitting sources and regional initiatives like Nova Scotia’s vehicle-to-grid pilot are advancing grid integration, switching to an EV is an effective way for New Brunswickers to lower their GHG emissions.”

Langille said the lung association has been part of an electric vehicles advisory group in the province since 2014 and its research has shown this type of program is needed.

“The major barrier that is standing in the way of New Brunswickers adopting electric vehicles is the upfront costs,” Langille said. “So today’s announcement, and that it can be stacked on top of the existing federal rebates, is a huge step forward for us.”

 

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Arvato commissions first solar power plant

Arvato Ontario Solar Power Plant advances sustainability with rooftop photovoltaic panels, PPA financing, and green electricity, generating 800,000 kWh annually to cut logistics emissions, reduce energy costs, and support carbon-neutral supply chain operations.

 

Key Points

A rooftop PV system under a PPA, supplying low-cost green power to Arvato's Ontario, CA distribution center.

✅ 1,160 panels produce 800,000 kWh of renewable power yearly

✅ PPA model avoids upfront costs and lowers electricity rates

✅ Cuts center emissions by 72%; 45% roof coverage

 

Arvato continues to invest consistently in the sustainability of its distribution centers. To this end, the first solar power plant in the focus market has now been commissioned on the roof of the distribution center in Ontario, California. The solar power plant has 1,160 solar panels and generates more than 800,000 kilowatt hours (kWh) of green electricity annually. This reduces electricity costs and, with advances in battery storage, further cuts the logistics center's greenhouse gas emissions. Previously, the international supply chain and e-commerce service provider had converted five other distribution centers in the USA to green electricity.

The project started as early as November 2019 with an intensive site investigation. An extensive catalogue of measures and criteria had to be worked through to install and commission the solar power plant on the roof system. After a rigorous process involving numerous stakeholders, the new solar modules were installed in August 2022, similar to utility-scale deployments like the largest solar array in Washington seen recently. However, further approvals and permits were required before the solar system could be officially commissioned, a common step for solar power plants worldwide. Once official permission for the operation was granted, the switch could be flipped in February 2023, and production of environmentally friendly solar electricity could begin.

The photovoltaic system is operated under a Purchase Power Agreement (PPA), a model widely used in corporate renewable energy projects today. This unique financing mechanism is available in twenty-six U.S. states, including California. While a third-party developer installs, owns and operates the solar panels, Arvato purchases the electricity generated. This allows companies in the U.S. to support clean energy projects while buying low-cost electricity without having to finance upfront costs. "The PPA and the resulting benefits were quite critical to the success of this project," says Christina Greenwell, Microsoft AOC F&L Client Services Manager at Arvato, who managed the project from start to finish. "It allows us to reduce our electricity costs while supporting Bertelsmann's ambitious goal of becoming carbon neutral by 2030."

The 1,160 solar panels were added to an existing system of 920 panels owned by the logistics center's landlord. In total, the panels now cover 45 percent of the roof space at the Ontario distribution center. The emissions generated by the distribution center are now reduced by 72 percent with the new solar panels and clean power generation. As Bertelsmann plans to switch all its sites worldwide to 100 percent green electricity, renewable energy certificates will, as seen when Bimbo Canada signed agreements to offset 100 percent of its electricity for its operations, offset the remaining emissions.

"The new solar power plant is a significant step on our path to carbon neutrality and demonstrates our commitment to finding innovative solutions that reduce our carbon footprint," said Mitat Aydindag, President of North America at Arvato. "All employees at the site are pleased that our Ontario distribution center is now a pioneer and is providing effective support in achieving our ambitious climate goal in 2030."

Similar facility-level efforts include the Bright Feeds Berlin solar project underscoring momentum across industrial operations.

 

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Electric vehicles: recycled batteries and the search for a circular economy

EV Battery Recycling and Urban Mining enable a circular economy by recovering lithium-ion materials like nickel, cobalt, and lithium, building a closed-loop supply chain that lowers emissions, reduces costs, and strengthens sustainable EV manufacturing.

 

Key Points

Closed-loop recovery of lithium-ion metals to cut emissions, costs, and supply risk across the EV battery supply chain.

✅ Cuts lifecycle emissions via circular, closed-loop battery materials

✅ Secures nickel, cobalt, lithium for resilient EV supply chains

✅ Lowers costs and dependency on mining; boosts sustainability

 


Few people have had the sort of front-row seat to the rise of electric vehicles as JB Straubel.

The softly spoken engineer is often considered the brains behind Tesla: it was Straubel who convinced Elon Musk, over lunch in 2003, that electric vehicles had a future. He then served as chief technology officer for 15 years, designing Tesla’s first batteries, managing construction of its network of charging stations and leading development of the Gigafactory in Nevada. When he departed in 2019, Musk’s biographer Ashlee Vance said Tesla had not only lost a founder, but “a piece of its soul”.

Straubel could have gone on to do anything in Silicon Valley. Instead, he stayed at his ranch in Carson City, Nevada, a town once described by former resident Mark Twain as “a desert, walled in by barren, snow-clad mountains” without a tree in sight.

At first glance it is not the most obvious location for Redwood Materials, a start-up Straubel founded in 2017 with a formidable mission bordering on alchemy: to break down discarded batteries and reconstitute them into a fresh supply of metals needed for new electric vehicles.

His goal is to solve the most glaring problem for electric vehicles. While they are “zero emission” when being driven, the mining, manufacturing and disposal process for batteries could become an environmental disaster for the industry as the technology goes mainstream.

JB Straubel is betting part of his Tesla fortune that Redwood can play an instrumental role in the circular economy
“It’s not sustainable at all today, nor is there really an imminent plan — any disruption happening — to make it sustainable,” Straubel says. “That always grated on me a little bit at Tesla and it became more apparent as we ramped everything up.”

Redwood’s warehouse is the ultimate example of how one person’s trash is another person’s treasure. Each weekday, two to three heavy-duty lorries drop off about 60 tonnes worth of old smartphones, power tools and scooter batteries. Straubel’s team of 130 employees then separates out the metals — including nickel, cobalt and lithium — pulverises them and treats them with chemicals so they can re-enter the supply chain as the building blocks for new lithium-ion batteries.

The metals used in batteries typically originate in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Australia and Chile, and emerging sources such as Alberta’s lithium potential are being explored, dug out of open-pit mines or evaporated from desert ponds. But Straubel believes there is another “massive, untapped” source: the garages of the average American. He estimates there are about 1bn used batteries in US homes, sitting in old laptops and mobile phones — all containing valuable metals.


In the Redwood’s warehouse, Straubel’s team separates out the metals, including nickel, so they can re-enter the supply chain
The process of breaking down these batteries and repurposing them is known as “urban mining”. To do this at scale is a gargantuan task: the amount of battery material in a high-end electric vehicle is roughly 10,000 times that of a smartphone, according to Gene Berdichevsky, chief executive of battery materials start-up Sila Nano. But, he adds, the amount of cobalt used in a car battery is about 30 times less than in a phone battery, per kilowatt hour. “So for every 300 smartphones you collect, you have enough cobalt for an EV battery.”

Redwood is also building a network of industrial partners, including Amazon, electric bus maker Proterra and e-bike maker Specialized, to receive their scrap, even as GM and Ford battery strategies highlight divergent approaches across the industry. It already receives e-waste from, and sends back repurposed materials to, Panasonic, which produces battery cells just 50 miles north at the Tesla Gigafactory.

Straubel is betting part of his Tesla fortune that Redwood can play an instrumental role in the emergence of “the circular economy” — a grand hope born in the 1960s that society can re-engineer the way goods are designed, manufactured and recycled. The concept is being embraced by some of the world’s largest companies including Apple, whose chief executive Tim Cook set an objective “not to have to remove anything from the earth to make the new iPhones” as part of its pledge to be carbon-neutral by 2030.

If the circular economy takes root, today’s status quo will look preposterous to future generations. The biggest source of cobalt at the moment is the DRC, where it is often extracted in both large industrial mines and also dug by hand using basic tools. Then it might be shipped to Finland, home to Europe’s largest cobalt refinery, before heading to China where the majority of the world’s cathode and battery production takes place. From there it can be shipped to the US or Europe, where battery cells are turned into packs, then shipped again to automotive production lines.

All told, the cobalt can travel more than 20,000 miles from the mine to the automaker before a buyer places a “zero emission” sticker on the bumper.

Despite this, independent studies routinely say electric vehicles cause less environmental damage than their combustion engine counterparts. But the scope for improvement is vast: Straubel says electric car emissions can be more than halved if their batteries are continually recycled.

In July, Redwood accelerated its mission, raising more than $700m from investors so it could hire more than 500 people and expand operations. At a valuation of $3.7bn, the company is now the most valuable battery recycling group in North America. This year it expects to process 20,000 tonnes of scrap and it has already recovered enough material to build 45,000 electric vehicle battery packs.

Advocates say a circular economy could create a more sustainable planet and reduce mountains of waste. In 2019 the World Economic Forum estimated that “a circular battery value chain” could account for 30 per cent of the emissions cuts needed to meet the targets set in the Paris accord and “create 10m safe and sustainable jobs around the world” by 2030.

Kristina Church, head of sustainable solutions at Lombard Odier Investment Managers, says transportation is “central” to creating a circular economy, not only because it accounts for a sixth of global CO2 emissions but because it intersects with mining and the energy grid.

“For the world to hit net zero — by 2050 you can’t do it with just resource efficiency, switching to EVs and clean energy, there’s still a gap,” Kunal Sinha, head of copper and electronics recycling at miner Glencore says. “That gap can be closed by driving the circular economy, changing how we consume things, how we reuse things, and how we recycle.

“Recycling plays a role,” he adds. “Not only do you provide extra supply to close the demand gap, but you also close the emissions gap.”

Although niche today, urban mining is set to become mainstream this decade given the broad political support for electric vehicles, an EV inflection point and policies to address climate change. Jennifer Granholm, US secretary of energy, has called for “a national commitment” to building a domestic supply chain for lithium-based batteries.

It is part of the Biden administration’s goal to reach 100 per cent clean electricity by 2035 and net zero emissions by 2050. Granholm has also said the global market for clean energy technologies will be worth $23tn by the end of this decade and warned that the US risks “bring[ing] a knife to a gunfight” as rival countries, particularly China, step up their investments, while Canada’s EV opportunity is to capitalize on the U.S. auto sector’s abrupt pivot.

In Europe, regulators emphasise environmental and societal concerns — such as the looming threat of job losses in Germany if carmakers stop producing combustion engines. Meanwhile, Beijing is subsidising the sector to boost sales of electric vehicles by 24 per cent every year for the rest of the decade, according to McKinsey.

This support, however, could have unintended consequences.

A shortage of semiconductors this year demonstrated the vulnerability of the “just-in-time” automotive supply chain, with global losses estimated at more than $110bn. The chip shortage is a harbinger of a much larger disruption that could be caused by bottlenecks for nickel, cobalt and lithium supply risks as every carmaker looks to electrify their vehicle portfolio.

Electric car sales last year accounted for just 4 per cent of the global total. That is projected to expand to 34 per cent in 2030, underscoring the accelerating EV timeline, and then swell to 70 per cent a decade later, according to BloombergNEF.

“There is going to be a mass scramble for these materials,” says Paul Anderson, a professor at the University of Birmingham. “Everyone is panicking about how to get their technology on to the market and there is not enough thought [given] to recycling.”

Monica Varman, a clean tech investor at G2 Venture Partners, estimates that demand for battery metals will exceed supply in two to three years, leading to a “crunch” lasting half a decade as the market reacts by redesigning batteries with sustainable materials. Recycled materials could help ease supply concerns, but analysts believe it will only be enough to cover 20 per cent of demand at most over the next decade.

So far, only a handful of start-ups besides Redwood have emerged to tackle the challenge of reconstituting discarded materials. One is Li-Cycle, based in Toronto and founded in 2016, reflecting Canada-U.S. collaboration in EV supply chains, which earlier this year raised more than $600m in a merger with a special purpose acquisition company valuing it at $1.7bn. Li-Cycle has already lined up partnerships with 14 automotive and battery companies, including Ultium, a joint venture between General Motors and LG Chem.

Tim Johnston, Li-Cycle chair, says the group’s plan is to create facilities it calls “spokes” around North America, where it will collect used batteries and transform them into “black mass” — the powder form of lithium, nickel, cobalt and graphite. Then it will build larger hubs where it can reprocess more than 95 per cent of the substance into battery-grade material.

Without urban mining at scale, Johnston worries that the coming shortages will be like the 1973 Arab oil embargo, when US petrol prices quadrupled within four months, imposing what the US state department described as “structural challenges to the stability of whole national economies”.

“Oil you can actually turn back on relatively quickly — it doesn’t take that long to develop a well and to start pumping oil,” says Johnston. “But if you look at the timeline that it takes to develop a lithium asset, or a cobalt asset, or a nickel asset, it’s a minimum of five years.

“So not only do you have the potential to have the same sort of implications of the oil embargo,” he adds, “but [the effects] could be prolonged.”

Beyond aiding supply constraints and helping the environment, urban mining could also prove cheaper. A 2018 study on the recycling of gold and copper from discarded TV sets in China found the process was 13 times more economical than virgin mining.

Straubel points out that the concentration of valuable material is considerably higher in existing batteries versus mined materials.

“With rock and ores or brines, you have very low concentrations of these critical materials,” he says. “We’re starting with something that already is quite high concentration and also has all the interesting materials together in the right place. So it’s really a huge leg up over the problem mining has.”

The top-graded lithium found in mines today are just 2 to 2.5 per cent lithium oxide, whereas in urban mining the concentration is four to five times that, adds Li-Cycle’s Johnston.

Still, the process of extracting valuable materials from discarded products is complicated by designs that fail to consider their end of life. “Today, the design parameters are for quick assembly, for cost, for quality, fit and finish,” says Ed Boyd, head of the experience design group at Dell, the computer company. Some products take 20 or 30 minutes to disassemble — so laborious that it becomes impractical.

His team is now investigating ways to “drastically” cut back the number of materials used and make it so products can be taken apart in under a minute. “That’s actually not that hard to do,” he says. “We just haven’t had disassembly as a design parameter before.”

‘Monumental task’
While few dismiss the circular economy out of hand, there are plenty of sceptics who doubt these processes can be scaled up quickly enough to meet near-exponential demand for clean energy technologies in the next decade. “Recycling sounds very sexy,” says Julian Treger, chief executive of mining company Anglo Pacific. “But, ultimately, [it] is like smelting and refining. It’s a value added processing piece which doesn’t generally have enormous margins.”

Brian Menell, the founder of TechMet, a company that invests in mining, processing and recycling of technology metals and is partly owned by the US government, calls it “a monumental task”. “In 10 years’ time a fully optimised developed lithium-ion recycling battery industry will maybe provide 25 per cent of the battery metal requirements for the electric vehicle industry,” he says. “So it will be a contributor, but it’s not a solution.”

The real volume could be created when the industry recycles more electric vehicle batteries. But they last an average of 15 years, so the first wave of batteries will not reach their end of life and become available for recycling for some time. This extended timeline could be enough for technologies to develop, but it also creates risks. G2 Ventures’ Varman says recycling processes being developed now, for today’s batteries, risk being made redundant if chemistries evolve quickly.

Even getting consistent access to discarded car batteries could be a challenge, as older cars are often exported for reuse in developing countries, according to Hans Eric Melin, the founder of consultancy Circular Energy Storage.

Melin found that nearly a fifth of the roughly 400,000 Nissan Leaf electric cars produced by the end of 2018 are now registered in Ukraine, Russia, Jordan, New Zealand and Sri Lanka — places where getting a hold of the batteries at end-of-life is harder.

Berdichevsky of Sila Nano says his aim is to make EV batteries that last 30 years. If that can be accomplished, pent-up demand for recycling will be less onerous and costs will fall, helping to make electric vehicles more affordable. “In the future we’ll replace the car, but not the battery; of that I’m very confident,” he says. “We haven’t even scratched the surface of the battery age, in terms of what we can do with longevity and recycling.”

 

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New Kind of 'Solar' Cell Shows We Can Generate Electricity Even at Night

Thermoradiative Diode Power leverages infrared radiation and night-sky cooling to harvest waste heat. Using MCT (mercury cadmium telluride) detectors with photovoltaics, it extends renewable energy generation after sunset, exploiting radiative cooling and low-power density.

 

Key Points

Technology using MCT infrared diodes to turn radiative Earth-to-space heat loss into electricity, aiding solar at night.

✅ MCT diodes radiate to cold sky, generating tiny current at 20 C

✅ Complements photovoltaics by harvesting post-sunset infrared flux

✅ Potential up to one-tenth solar output with further efficiency gains

 

Conventional solar technology soaks up rays of incoming sunlight to bump out a voltage. Strange as it seems, some materials are capable of running in reverse, producing power as they radiate heat back into the cold night sky environment.

A team of engineers in Australia has now demonstrated the theory in action, using the kind of technology commonly found in night-vision goggles to generate power, while other research explores electricity from thin air concepts under ambient humidity.

So far, the prototype only generates a small amount of power, and is probably unlikely to become a competitive source of renewable power on its own – but coupled with existing photovoltaics technology and thermal energy into electricity approaches, it could harness the small amount of energy provided by solar cells cooling after a long, hot day's work.

"Photovoltaics, the direct conversion of sunlight into electricity, is an artificial process that humans have developed in order to convert the solar energy into power," says Phoebe Pearce, a physicist from the University of New South Wales.

"In that sense, the thermoradiative process is similar; we are diverting energy flowing in the infrared from a warm Earth into the cold Universe."

By setting atoms in any material jiggling with heat, you're forcing their electrons to generate low-energy ripples of electromagnetic radiation in the form of infrared light, a principle also explored with carbon nanotube energy harvesters in ambient conditions.

As lackluster as this electron-shimmy might be, it still has the potential to kick off a slow current of electricity. All that's needed is a one-way electron traffic signal called a diode.

Made of the right combination of elements, a diode can shuffle electrons down the street as it slowly loses its heat to a cooler environment.

In this case, the diode is made of mercury cadmium telluride (MCT). Already used in devices that detect infrared light, MCT's ability to absorb mid-and long-range infrared light and turn it into a current is well understood.

What hasn't been entirely clear is how this particular trick might be used efficiently as an actual power source.

Warmed to around 20 degrees Celsius (nearly 70 degrees Fahrenheit), one of the tested MCT photovoltaic detectors generated a power density of 2.26 milliwatts per square meter.

Granted, it's not exactly enough to boil a jug of water for your morning coffee. You'd probably need enough MCT panels to cover a few city blocks for that small task.

But that's not really the point, either, given it's still very early days in the field, and there's potential for the technology to develop significantly further in the future.

"Right now, the demonstration we have with the thermoradiative diode is relatively very low power. One of the challenges was actually detecting it," says the study's lead researcher, Ned Ekins-Daukes.

"But the theory says it is possible for this technology to ultimately produce about 1/10th of the power of a solar cell."

At those kinds of efficiencies, it might be worth the effort weaving MCT diodes into more typical photovoltaic networks alongside thin-film waste heat solutions so that they continue to top up batteries long after the Sun sets.

To be clear, the idea of using the planet's cooling as a source of low-energy radiation is one engineers have been entertaining for a while now. Different methods have seen different results, all with their own costs and benefits, with low-cost heat-to-electricity materials also advancing in parallel.

Yet by testing the limits of each and fine-tuning their abilities to soak up more of the infrared bandwidth, we can come up with a suite of technologies and thermoelectric materials capable of wringing every drop of power out of just about any kind of waste heat.

"Down the line, this technology could potentially harvest that energy and remove the need for batteries in certain devices – or help to recharge them," says Ekins-Daukes.

"That isn't something where conventional solar power would necessarily be a viable option."

 

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Most planned U.S. battery storage additions in next three years to be paired with solar

U.S. Solar-Plus-Storage Growth 2021-2024 highlights rising battery storage co-location with solar PV, grid flexibility, RTO/ISO market signals, and ITC incentives, enabling peak shaving, firming renewable output, and reliable night-time power.

 

Key Points

Summary of U.S. plans pairing battery storage with solar PV, guided by RTO/ISO markets, grid needs, and ITC policy.

✅ 9.4 GW (63%) co-located with solar PV by 2024

✅ 97% of standalone capacity sited in RTO/ISO regions

✅ ITC improves project economics and grid services revenue

 

Of the 14.5 gigawatts (GW) of battery storage power capacity planned to come online amid anticipated growth in solar and storage in the United States from 2021 to 2024, 9.4 GW (63%) will be co-located with a solar photovoltaic (PV) solar-plus-storage power plant, based on data reported to us and published in our Annual Electric Generator Report. Another 1.3 GW of battery storage will be co-located at sites with wind turbines or fossil fuel-fired generators, such as natural gas-fired plants. The remaining 4.0 GW of planned battery storage will be located at standalone sites.

Historically, most U.S. battery systems have been located at standalone sites. Of the 1.5 GW of operating battery storage capacity in the United States at the end of 2020, 71% was standalone, and 29% was located onsite with other power generators.

Most standalone battery energy storage sites have been planned or built in power markets that are governed by regional transmission organizations (RTOs) and independent system operators (ISOs). RTOs and ISOs can enforce standard market rules that lay out clear revenue streams for energy storage projects in their regions, which promotes the deployment of battery storage systems. Of the utility-scale pipeline battery systems announced to come online from 2021 to 2024, 97% of the standalone battery capacity and 60% of the co-located battery capacity are in RTO/ISO regions.

Over 90% of the planned battery storage capacity outside of RTO and ISO regions will be co-located with a solar PV plant. At some solar PV co-located plants, the batteries can charge directly from the onsite solar generator when electricity demand and prices are low. They can then discharge electricity to the grid when peak demand is higher or when solar generation is unavailable, such as at night.

Although factors such as cloud cover can affect solar generation output, solar generators, now the number three renewable source in the U.S., in particular can effectively pair with battery storage because of their relatively regular daily generation patterns. This predictability works well with battery systems because battery systems are limited in how long they can discharge their power capacity before needing to recharge. If paired with a wind turbine, for example, a battery system could go days before having the opportunity to fully recharge.

Another advantage of pairing batteries with renewable generators is the ability to take advantage of tax incentives such as the Investment Tax Credit (ITC), which is available for solar projects, and other favorable government plans supporting deployment.

 

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