New solar technology “richer than oilsands”

Indonesia Coal Production Cuts reflect weaker China demand, COVID-19 impacts, falling HBA reference prices, and DMO sales to PLN, pressuring thermal coal output, miner budgets, and investment plans under the 2020 RKAB.

Key Points

Planned 2020 coal output reductions from China demand slump, lower HBA prices, and DMO constraints impacting miners.

✅ China demand drop reduces exports and thermal coal shipments.

✅ HBA reference price decline pressures margins and cash flow.

✅ DMO sales to PLN limit revenue; investment plans may slow.

The Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) Ministry is considering lowering the coal production target this year as demand from China has shown a significant decline, with China power demand drops reported, since the start of the outbreak of the novel coronavirus in the country late last year, a senior ministry official has said.

The ministry’s coal and mineral director general Bambang Gatot Ariyono said in Jakarta on March 12 that the decline in the demand had also caused a sharp drop in coal prices on the world market, and China's plan to reduce coal power has further weighed on sentiment, which could cause the country’s miners to reduce their production.

The 2020 minerals and coal mining program and budget (RKAB) has set a current production goal of 550 million tons of coal, a 10 percent increase from last year’s target. As of March 6, 94.7 million tons of coal had been mined in the country in the year.

“With the existing demand, revision to this year’s production is almost certain,” he said, adding that the drop in demand had also caused a decline in coal prices.

Indonesia’s thermal coal reference price (HBA) fell by 26 percent year-on-year to US$67.08 per metric ton in March, according to a Standards & Poor press release on March 5.  At home, the coal price is also unattractive for local producers. Under the domestic market obligation (DMO) policy, miners are required to sell a quarter of their production to state-owned electricity company PLN at a government-set price, even as imported coal volumes rise in some markets. This year’s coal reference price is $70 per metric ton, far below the internal prices before the coronavirus outbreak hit China.

The ministry’s expert staff member Irwandy Arif said China had reduced its coal demand by 200,000 tons so far, as six of its coal-fired power plants had suspended operation due to the significant drop in electricity demand. Many factories in the country were closed as the government tried to halt the spread of the new coronavirus, which caused the decline in energy demand and created electric power woes for international supply chains.

“At present, all mines in Indonesia are still operating normally, while India is rationing coal supplies amid surging electricity demand. But we have to see what will happen in June,” he said.

The ministry predicted that the low demand would also result in a decline in coal mining investment, as clean energy investment has slipped across many developing nations.

The ministry set a $7.6 billion investment target for the mining sector this year, up from $6.17 billion last year, even as Israel reduces coal use in its power sector, which may influence regional demand. The year’s total investment realization was $192 million as of March 6, or around 2.5 percent of the annual target. 

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Hydro-Qubec Electricity Theft Ring exposed after a utility investigation into identity theft, rental property fraud, and conspiracies using stolen customer data; arrests, charges, and a tip line highlight ongoing enforcement.

Key Points

A five-year identity-theft scheme defrauding Hydro-Qubec through utility accounts leading to arrests and fraud charges.

✅ Five arrests; 25 counts: fraud, conspiracy, identity theft

✅ Losses up to $300,000 in electricity, 2014-2019

✅ Tip line: 1-877-816-1212 for suspected Hydro-Qubec fraud

Five people have been arrested in connection with an electricity theft ring alleged to have operated for five years, a pattern seen in India electricity theft arrests as well.

The thefts were allegedly committed by the owners of rental properties who used stolen personal information to create accounts with Hydro-Québec, which also recently dealt with a manhole fire outage affecting thousands.

The utility alleges that between 2014 and 2019, Mario Brousseau, Simon Brousseau-Ouellette and their accomplices defrauded Hydro-Québec of up to $300,000 worth of electricity, highlighting concerns about consumption trends as residential electricity use rose during the pandemic. It was impossible for Hydro-Québec’s customer service section to detect the fraud because the information on the accounts, while stolen, was also genuine, even as the utility reported pandemic-related losses later on.

The suspects are expected to face 25 counts of fraud, conspiracy and identity theft, issues that Ontario utilities warn about regularly.

Hydro-Québec noted the thefts were detected through an investigation by the utility into 10 fraud cases, a process that can lead to retroactive charges for affected accounts.

Anyone concerned that a fraud is being committed against Hydro-Québec, or wary of scammers threatening shutoffs, is urged to call 1-877-816-1212.

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SaskPower Summer Power Demand Record hits 3,520 MW as heat waves drive electricity consumption; grid capacity, renewables expansion, and energy efficiency tips highlight efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions while meeting Saskatchewan's growing load.

Key Points

The latest summer peak load in Saskatchewan: 3,520 MW, driven by heat, with plans to expand capacity and lower emissions.

✅ New peak surpasses last August by 50 MW to 3,520 MW.

✅ Capacity target: 7,000 MW by 2030 with more renewables.

✅ Tips: AC settings, close blinds, delay heat-producing chores.

As the mercury continues to climb in Saskatchewan, where Alberta's summer electricity record offers a regional comparison, SaskPower says the province has set a new summer power demand record.

The Crown says the new record is 3,520 megawatts. It’s an increase of 50 megawatts over the previous record, or enough electricity for 50,000 homes.

“We’ve seen both summer and winter records set every year for a good while now. And if last summer is any indication, we could very well see another record before temperatures cool off heading into the fall,” said SaskPower Vice President of Transmission and Industrial Services Kory Hayko in a written release. “It’s not impossible we’ll break this record again in the coming days. It’s SaskPower’s responsibility to ensure that Saskatchewan people and businesses have the power they need to thrive. That’s what drives our investment of $1 billion every year, as outlined in our annual report, to modernize and grow the province’s electrical system.”

The previous summer consumption record of 3,740 megawatts was set last August, and similar extremes in the Yukon electricity demand highlight broader demand pressures this year. The winter demand record remains higher at 3,792 megawatts, set on Dec. 29, 2017.

SaskPower says it plans to expand its generation capacity from 4,500 megawatts now to 7,000 megawatts in 2030, with a focus on decreasing greenhouse gas emissions and doubling renewable electricity by 2030 as part of its strategy.

To reduce power bills, the Crown suggests turning down or programming air conditioning when residents aren’t home, inspecting the air conditioner to make sure it is operating efficiently, keeping blinds closed to keep out direct sunlight, delaying chores that produce heat and making sure electronics are turned off when people leave the room.

The new record beats the previous summer peak of 3,470 MW, set last August after also being broken twice in July. The winter demand record is still higher at 3,792 MW, which was set on December 29, 2017. To meet growing power demand, and amid projections that Manitoba's electrical demand could double in the next 20 years, SaskPower is expanding its generation capacity from approximately 4,500 MW now to 7,000 MW by 2030 while also reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 40 per cent from 2005 levels. To accomplish this, we will be significantly increasing the amount of renewables on our system.

Cooling and heating represents approximately a quarter of residential power bills. To reduce consumption and power bills during heat waves, SaskPower’s customers can:

Turn down or program the air conditioning when no one is home (for every degree that air conditioning is lowered for an eight-hour period, customers can save up to two per cent on their power costs);

Consider having their air conditioning unit inspected to make sure it is operating efficiently;

Keep the heat out by closing blinds and drapes, especially those with direct sunlight;

Delay chores that produce heat and moisture, like dishwashing and laundering, until the cooler parts of the day or evening; and

As with any time of the year, make sure lights, televisions and other electronics are turned off when no one's in the room. For example, a modern gaming console can use as much power as a refrigerator.

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Israel Electricity Reform Competition opens the supply segment to private suppliers, challenges IEC price controls, and promises consumer choice, marginal discounts, and market liberalization amid natural gas generation and infrastructure remaining with IEC.

Key Points

Policy opening 40% of supply to private vendors, enabling consumer choice and small discounts while IEC retains the grid.

✅ 40% of retail supply opened to private electricity suppliers

✅ IEC keeps meters, lines; tariffs still regulated by the authority

✅ Expected discounts near 7%, not dramatic price cuts initially

"See the pseudo-reform in the electricity sector: no lower prices, no opening the market to competition, and no choice of electricity suppliers, with a high rate for consumers despite natural gas." This is an advertisement by the Private Power Producers Forum that is appearing everywhere: Facebook, the Internet, billboards, and the press.

Is it possible that the biggest reform in the economy with a cost estimated by Israel Electric Corporation (IEC) (TASE: ELEC.B22) at NIS 7 billion is really a pseudo-reform? In contrast to the assertions by the private electricity producers, who are supposedly worried about our wallets and want to bring down the cost of electricity for us, the reform will open a segment of electricity supply to competition, as agreed in the final discussions about the reform. No less than 40% of this segment will be removed from IEC's exclusive responsibility and pass to private hands.

This means that in the not-too-distant future, one million households in Israel will be able to choose between different electricity suppliers. IEC will retain the infrastructure, with its meter and power lines, but for the first time, the supplier who sends the monthly bill to our home can be a private concern.

Up until now, the only regulatory agency determining the electricity rate in Israel was the Public Utilities Authority (electricity), i.e. the state. Now, in the framework of the reform, as a result of opening the supply segment to competition, private electricity producers will be able to offer a lower rate than IEC's, with mechanisms like electricity auctions shown to cut costs in some markets, while IEC's rate will still be controlled by the Public Utilities Authority (electricity).

This situation differs from the situation in almost all European countries, where the electricity market is fully open to competition and the EU is pursuing an electricity market revamp to address pricing challenges, with no electricity price controls and free switching by consumers between electricity producers, just as in the mobile phone market. This measure has not lowered electricity prices in Europe, where rates are higher than in Israel, which is in the bottom third of OECD countries in its electricity rate.

Regardless of reports, supply will be opened to competition and we will be able to choose between electricity suppliers in the future. Are the private electricity producers nevertheless right when they say that the electricity sector will not be opened to "real competition"?

What is obviously necessary is for the private producers to offer a substantially lower rate than IEC in order to attract as many new customers as possible and win their trust. Can the private producers offer a significantly lower rate than IEC? The answer is no, at least not in the near future. The teams handling the negotiations are aware of this. "The private supplier's price will not be significantly cheaper than IEC's controlled price; there will be marginal discounts," a senior government source explains. "What is involved here is another electricity intermediary, so it will not contribute to competition and lowering the price," he added.

There are already private electricity producers supplying electricity to large business customers - factories, shopping malls, and so forth - at a 7% discount. The rest of the electricity that they produce is sold to the system manager. When supply is opened to competition, it can be assumed that the private suppliers will also be able to offer a similar discount to private consumers.

Will a 7% discount cause a home consumer to leave reliable and familiar IEC for a private producer, given evidence from retail electricity competition in other markets? This is hard to know.

#google#

Why cannot private electricity producers offer a larger discount that will really break the monopoly, as their advertisement says they want to do? Chen Herzog, chief economist and partner at BDO Consulting, which is advising the Private Power Producers Forum, says, "Competition in supply requires the construction of competitive power plants that can compete and offer cheaper electricity.

"The power plants that IEC will sell in the reform, which will go on selling electricity to IEC, are outmoded, inefficient, and non-competitive. In addition, the producer will have to continue employing IEC workers in the purchased plants for at least five years. The producer will generate electricity in IEC power stations with IEC employees and additional overhead of a private producer, with factors such as cost allocation further shaping end-user rates. This amounts to being an IEC subcontractor in production. There is no saving on costs, so there will be no surplus to deduct from the consumer price," he adds.

The idea of opening supply to electricity market competition on such a large scale sounds promising, but saving on electricity for consumers still looks a long way off.

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New England oil-fired generation surges as ISO New England manages a cold snap, dual-fuel switching, and a natural gas price spike, highlighting winter reliability challenges, LNG and pipeline limits, and rising CO2 emissions.

Key Points

Reliance on oil-burning power plants during winter demand spikes when natural gas is costly or constrained.

✅ Driven by dual-fuel switching amid high natural gas prices

✅ ISO-NE winter reliability rules encourage oil stockpiles

✅ Raises CO2 emissions despite coal retirements and renewables growth

New England is relying on oil-fired generators for the most electricity since 2018 as a frigid blast boosts demand for power and natural gas prices soar across markets. 

Oil generators were producing more than 4,200 megawatts early Thursday, accounting for about a quarter of the grid’s power supply, according to ISO New England. That was the most since Jan. 6, 2018, when oil plants produced as much as 6.4 gigawatts, or 32% of the grid’s output, said Wood Mackenzie analyst Margaret Cashman.  

Oil is typically used only when demand spikes, because of higher costs and emissions concerns. Consumption has been consistently high over the past three weeks as some generators switch from gas, which has surged in price in recent months. New England generators are producing power from oil at an average rate of almost 1.8 gigawatts so far this month, the highest for January in at least five years. 

Oil’s share declined to 16% Friday morning ahead of an expected snowstorm, which was “a surprise,” Cashman said. 

“It makes me wonder if some of those generators are aiming to reserve their fuel for this weekend,” she said.

During the recent cold snap, more than a tenth of the electricity generated in New England has been produced by power plants that haven’t happened for at least 15 years.

Burning oil for electricity was standard practice throughout the region for decades. It was once our most common fuel for power and as recently as 2000, fully 19% of the six-state region’s electricity came from burning oil, according to ISO-New England, more than any other source except nuclear power at the time.

Since then, however, natural gas has gotten so cheap that most oil-fired plants have been shut or converted to burn gas, to the point that just 1% of New England’s electricity came from oil in 2018, whereas about half our power came from natural gas generation regionally during that period. This is good because natural gas produces less pollution, both particulates and greenhouse gasses, although exactly how much less is a matter of debate.

But as you probably know, there’s a problem: Natural gas is also used for heating, which gets first dibs. Prolonged cold snaps require so much gas to keep us warm, a challenge echoed in Ontario’s electricity system as supply tightens, that there might not be enough for power plants – at least, not at prices they’re willing to pay.

After we came close to rolling brownouts during the polar vortex in the 2017-18 winter because gas-fired power plants cut back so much, ISO-NE, which has oversight of the power grid, established “winter reliability” rules. The most important change was to pay power plants to become dual-fuel, meaning they can switch quickly between natural gas and oil, and to stockpile oil for winter cold snaps.

We’re seeing that practice in action right now, as many dual-fuel plants have switched away from gas to oil, just as was intended.

That switch is part of the reason EPA says the region’s carbon emissions have gone up in the pandemic, from 22 million tons of CO2 in 2019 to 24 million tons in 2021. That reverses a long trend caused partly by closing of coal plants and partly by growing solar and offshore wind capacity: New England power generation produced 36 million tons of CO2 a decade ago.

So if we admit that a return to oil burning is bad, and it is, what can we do in future winters? There are many possibilities, including tapping more clean imports such as Canadian hydropower to diversify supply.

The most obvious solution is to import more natural gas, especially from fracked fields in New York state and Pennsylvania. But efforts to build pipelines to do that have been shot down a couple of times and seem unlikely to go forward and importing more gas via ocean tanker in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG) is also an option, but hits limits in terms of port facilities.

Aside from NIMBY concerns, the problem with building pipelines or ports to import more gas is that pipelines and ports are very expensive. Once they’re built they create a financial incentive to keep using natural gas for decades to justify the expense, similar to moves such as Ontario’s new gas plants that lock in generation. That makes it much harder for New England to decarbonize and potentially leaves ratepayers on the hook for a boatload of stranded costs.

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Ukraine Winter Energy Strategy strengthens the power grid through infrastructure repairs, electricity imports, renewable integration, nuclear output, and conservation to ensure reliable heating, blackout mitigation, and grid resilience with international aid, generators, and transmission lines.

Key Points

A wartime plan to stabilize Ukraine's grid via repairs, imports, renewables, and nuclear to deliver reliable electricity.

✅ Repairs, imports, and demand management stabilize the grid.

✅ Renewables and nuclear reduce outage risks in winter.

✅ International aid supplies transformers, generators, expertise.

As Ukraine braces for the winter months, the question of how the country will keep the lights on has become a pressing concern, as the country fights to keep the lights on amid ongoing strikes. The ongoing war with Russia has severely disrupted Ukraine's energy infrastructure, leading to widespread damage to power plants, transmission lines, and other critical energy facilities. Despite these challenges, Ukraine has been working tirelessly to maintain its energy supply during the cold winter months, which are essential not only for heating but also for the functioning of homes, businesses, hospitals, and schools. Here's a closer look at the steps Ukraine is taking to keep the lights on this winter and ensure that its people have access to reliable electricity.

1. Repairing Damaged Infrastructure

One of the most immediate concerns for Ukraine's energy sector is the extensive damage inflicted on its power infrastructure by Russian missile and drone attacks. Since the war began in 2022, Ukraine has faced repeated attacks targeting power plants, substations, and power lines, including strikes on western regions that caused widespread outages across communities. These attacks have left parts of the country with intermittent or no electricity, and repairing the damage has been a monumental task.

However, Ukraine has made significant progress in restoring its energy infrastructure. Government agencies and energy companies have been working around the clock to repair power plants and transmission networks. Teams of technicians and engineers have been deployed to restore power to areas that have been hardest hit by Russian attacks, often under difficult and dangerous conditions. While some areas may continue to face outages, efforts to rebuild the energy grid are ongoing, with the government prioritizing critical infrastructure to ensure that hospitals, military facilities, and essential services have access to power.

2. Energy Efficiency and Conservation Measures

To cope with reduced energy availability and avoid overloading the grid, Ukrainian authorities have been encouraging energy efficiency and conservation measures. These efforts are particularly important during the winter when demand for electricity and heating is at its peak.

The government has implemented energy-saving programs, urging citizens and businesses to reduce their consumption and adopt new energy solutions that can be deployed quickly. Measures include limiting electricity use during peak hours, setting thermostats lower in homes and businesses, and encouraging the use of energy-efficient appliances. Ukrainian officials have also been promoting public awareness campaigns to educate people about the importance of energy conservation, which is crucial to avoid grid overload and ensure the distribution of power across the country.

3. Importing Energy from Abroad

To supplement domestic energy production, Ukraine has been working to secure electricity imports from neighboring countries. Ukraine has long been interconnected with energy grids in countries such as Poland, Slovakia, and Hungary, which allows it to import electricity during times of shortage. In recent months, Ukraine has ramped up efforts to strengthen these connections, ensuring that it can import electricity when domestic production is insufficient to meet demand, and in a notable instance, helped Spain during blackouts through coordinated cross-border support.

While electricity imports from neighboring countries provide a temporary solution, this is not without its challenges. The cost of importing electricity can be high, and the country’s ability to import large amounts of power depends on the availability of energy in neighboring nations; officials say there are electricity reserves and no scheduled outages if strikes do not resume. Ukraine has been actively seeking new energy partnerships and working with international organizations to secure access to electricity, including exploring the potential for importing energy from the European Union.

4. Harnessing Renewable Energy Sources

Another key part of Ukraine's strategy to keep the lights on this winter is tapping into renewable energy sources, particularly wind and solar power. While Ukraine’s energy sector has historically been dependent on fossil fuels, the country has been making strides in integrating renewable energy into its grid. Solar and wind energy are particularly useful in supplementing the national grid, especially during the winter months when demand is high.

Renewable energy sources are less vulnerable to missile strikes compared to traditional power plants, making them an attractive option for Ukraine's energy strategy. Although renewable energy currently represents a smaller portion of Ukraine’s overall energy mix, its contribution is expected to increase as the country invests more in clean energy infrastructure. In addition to reducing dependence on fossil fuels, this shift is aligned with Ukraine’s broader environmental goals and will be important for the long-term sustainability of its energy sector.

5. International Aid and Support

International support has been crucial in helping Ukraine keep the lights on during the war. Western allies, including the European Union and the United States, have provided financial assistance, technical expertise, and equipment to help restore the energy infrastructure, though Washington recently ended some grid restoration support as priorities shifted. In addition to rebuilding power plants and transmission lines, Ukraine has received advanced energy technologies and materials to strengthen its energy security.

The U.S. has sent electrical transformers, backup generators, and other essential equipment to help Ukraine restore its energy grid. The European Union has also provided both financial and technical assistance, supporting Ukraine’s efforts to integrate more renewable energy into its grid and enhancing the country’s ability to import electricity from neighboring states.

6. The Role of Nuclear Energy

Ukraine’s nuclear energy plants play a critical role in the country’s electricity supply. Before the war, nuclear power accounted for around 50% of Ukraine’s total electricity generation, and for communities near the front line, electricity is civilization that depends on reliable baseload. Despite the ongoing conflict, Ukrainian nuclear plants have remained operational, though they face heightened security risks due to the proximity of active combat zones.

In the winter months, nuclear plants are expected to continue providing a significant portion of Ukraine's electricity, which is essential for meeting the country's heating and power needs. The government has made efforts to ensure the safety and security of these plants, which remain a vital part of the country's energy strategy.

Keeping the lights on in Ukraine during the winter of 2024 is no small feat, given the war-related damage to energy infrastructure, rising energy demands, and ongoing security risks. However, the Ukrainian government has taken proactive steps to address these challenges, including repairing critical infrastructure, importing energy from neighboring countries, promoting energy efficiency, and expanding renewable energy sources. International aid and the continued operation of nuclear plants also play a vital role in ensuring a reliable energy supply. While challenges remain, Ukraine’s resilience and determination to overcome its energy crisis are clear, and the country is doing everything it can to keep the lights on through this difficult winter.

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