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Ontario electricity emissions forecast highlights rising grid CO2 as nuclear refurbishments and the Pickering closure drive more natural gas, limited renewables, and delayed Quebec hydro imports, pending advances in storage and transmission upgrades.

Key Points

A projection that Ontario's grid CO2 will rise as nuclear units refurbish or retire, increasing natural gas use.

✅ Nuclear refurbs and Pickering shutdown cut zero-carbon baseload

✅ Gas plants fill capacity gaps, boosting GHG emissions

✅ Quebec hydro imports face cost, transmission, and timing limits

Ontario's energy grid is among the cleanest in North America — but the province’s nuclear plans mean that some of our progress will be reversed over the next decade.

What was once Canada’s largest single source of greenhouse-gas emissions is now a solar-power plant. The Nanticoke Generating Station, a coal-fired power plant in Haldimand County, was decommissioned in stages from 2010 to 2013 — and even before the last remaining structures were demolished earlier this year, Ontario Power Generation had replaced its nearly 4,000 megawatts with a 44-megawatt solar project in partnership with the Six Nations of the Grand River Development Corporation and the Mississaugas of the Credit First Nation.

But neither wind nor solar has done much to replace coal in Ontario’s hydro sector, a sign of how slowly Ontario is embracing clean power in practice across the province. At Nanticoke, the solar panels make up less than 2 per cent of the capacity that once flowed out to southern Ontario over high-voltage transmission lines. In cleaning up its electricity system, the province relied primarily on nuclear power — but the need to extend the nuclear system’s lifespan will end up making our electricity dirtier again.

“We’ve made some pretty great strides since 2005 with the fuel mix,” says Terry Young, vice-president of corporate communications at the Independent Electricity System Operator, the provincial agency whose job it is to balance supply and demand in Ontario’s electricity sector. “There have been big changes since 2005, but, yes, we will see an increase because of the closure of Pickering and the refurbs coming.”

“The refurbs” is industry-speak for the major rebuilds of both the Darlington and Bruce nuclear-power stations. The two are both in the early stages of major overhauls intended to extend their operating lives into the 2060s: in the coming years, they’ll be taken offline and rebuilt. (The Pickering nuclear plant will not be refurbished and will shut down in 2024.)

The catch is that, as the province loses its nuclear capacity in increments, Ontario will be short of electricity in the coming years and the IESO will need to find capacity elsewhere to make sure the lights stay on. And that could mean burning a lot more natural gas — and creating more greenhouse-gas emissions.

According to the IESO’s planning assumptions, electricity will be responsible for 11 megatonnes of greenhouse-gas emissions annually by 2035 (last year, it was three megatonnes). That’s the “reference case” scenario: if conservation and efficiency policies shave off some electricity demand, we could get it down to something like nine megatonnes. But if demand is higher than expected, it could be as high as 13 megatonnes — more than quadruple Ontario’s 2018 emissions.

Even in the worst-case scenario, the province’s emissions from electricity would still be less than half of what they were in 2005, before the province began phasing out its coal generation. But it’s still a reversal of a trend that both Liberals and Progressive Conservatives have boasted about — the Liberals to justify their energy policies, the PCs to justify their hostility to a federal carbon tax.

Young emphasized that technology can change and that the IESO’s planning assumptions are just that: projections based on the information available today. A revolution in electricity storage could make it possible to store the province’s cleaner power sources overnight for use during the day, but that’s still only in the realm of speculation — and the natural-gas infrastructure exists in the real world, today.

Ontario Power Generation — the Crown corporation that operates many of the province’s power plants, including Pickering and Darlington — recently bought four gas plants, two of them outright (two it already owned in part). All were nearly complete or already operational, so the purchase itself won’t change the province’s emissions prospects. Rather, OPG is simply looking to maintain its share of the electricity market after the Pickering shutdown.

“It will allow us to maintain our scale, with the upcoming end of Pickering’s commercial operations, so that we can continue our role as the driver of Ontario’s lower carbon future,” Neal Kelly, OPG’s director of media, issues, and management, told TVO.org via email. “Further, there is a growing need for flexible gas fired generation to support intermittent wind and solar generation.”

The shift to more gas-fired generation has been coming for a while, and critics say that Ontario has missed an opportunity to replace the lost Pickering capacity with something cleaner. MPP Mike Schreiner, leader of the Green party, has argued for years that Ontario should have pursued an agreement with Quebec to import clean hydroelectricity.

“To me, it’s a cost-effective solution, and it’s a zero-emissions solution,” Schreiner says. “Regardless of your position on sources of electricity, I think everyone could agree that waterpower from Quebec is going to be less expensive.”

Quebec is eager to sell Ontario its surplus hydro power, but not everyone agrees that importing power would be cheaper. A study published by the Ontario Chamber of Commerce (and commissioned by Ontario Power Generation) calls the claim a “myth” and states that upgrading electric-transmission wires between Ontario and Quebec would cost $1.2 billion and take 10 years, while some estimates suggest fully greening Ontario's grid would cost far more overall.

With Quebec imports seemingly a non-starter and major changes to Ontario’s nuclear fleet already underway, there’s only one path left for this province’s greenhouse-gas emissions: upwards.

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Arc One Electric Speedboat delivers zero-emission performance, quiet operation, and reduced maintenance, leveraging battery propulsion, aerospace engineering, and venture-backed innovation to cut noise pollution, fuel costs, and water contamination in high-performance marine recreation.

Key Points

Arc One Electric Speedboat is a battery-powered, zero-emission craft offering quiet, high-performance marine cruising.

✅ 475 hp, 24 ft hull, about 40 mph top speed

✅ Cuts noise, fumes, and water contamination vs gas boats

✅ Backed by Andreessen Horowitz; ex-SpaceX engineers

A team of former SpaceX rocket engineers have joined the race to build the first commercial electric speedboat.

The Arc Boat company announced it had raised $4.25m (£3m) in seed funding to start work on a 24ft 475-horsepower craft that will cost about $300,000.

The LA-based company, which is backed by venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz (an early backer of Facebook and Airbnb), said the first model of the Arc One boat would be available for sale by the end of the year.

Mitch Lee, Arc’s chief executive, said he wanted to build electric boats because of the impact conventional petrol- or diesel-powered boats have on the environment.

“They not only get just two miles to the gallon, they also pump a lot of those fumes into the water,” Lee said. “In addition, there is the huge noise pollution factor [of conventional boats] and that is awful for the marine life. With gas-powered boats it’s not just carbon emissions into the air, it’s also polluting the water and causing noise pollution. Electric boats, like electric ships clearing the air on the B.C. coast, eliminate all that.”

Lee said electric vessels would also reduce the hassle of boat ownership. “I love being out on the water, being on a boat is so much fun, but owning a boat is so awful,” he said. “I have always believed that electric boats make sense. They will be quicker, quieter and way cheaper and easier to operate and maintain, with access options like an electric boat club in Seattle lowering barriers for newcomers.”

While the first models will be very expensive, Lee said the cost was mostly in developing the technology and cheaper versions would be available in the future, mirroring advances in electric aviation seen across the industry. “It is very much the Tesla approach – we are starting up market and using that income to finance research and development and work our way down market,” he said.

Lee said the technology could be applied to larger craft, and even ferries could run on electricity in the future, as projects for battery-electric high-speed ferries begin to scale.

“We started in February with no team, no money and no warehouse,” he said. “By December we are going to be selling the Arc One, and we are hiring aggressively because we want to accelerate the adoption of electric boats across a whole range of craft, including an electric-ready ferry on Kootenay Lake.”

Lee founded the company with fellow mechanical engineer Ryan Cook. Cook, the company’s chief technology officer, was previously the lead mechanical engineer at Elon Musk’s space exploration company SpaceX where he worked on the Falcon 9 rocket, the world’s first orbital class reusable rocket. In parallel, Harbour Air's electric aircraft highlights cross-sector electrification. Apart from Lee, all of Arc’s employees have some experience working at SpaceX.

The Arc boat, which would have a top speed of 40 mph, joins a number of startups rushing to make the first large-scale production of electric-powered speedboats, while a Vancouver seaplane airline demonstrates complementary progress with a prototype electric aircraft. The Monaco Yacht Club this month held a competition for electric boat prototypes to “instigate a new vision and promote all positive approaches to bring yachting into line” with global carbon dioxide emission reduction targets. Sweden’s Candela C-7 hydrofoil boat was crowned the fastest electric vessel.

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TotalEnergies Africa Energy Strategy 2025 spotlights oil, gas, LNG, and renewables, with investments in Namibia, Congo, Mozambique, Uganda, Morocco, and South Africa, driving upstream growth, clean energy, and energy transition partnerships.

Key Points

An investment roadmap uniting oil, gas, LNG, and renewables to speed Africa's upstream growth and energy transition.

✅ Keynote by Mike Sangster at IAE Paris 2025.

✅ Oil, gas, LNG projects across Namibia, Congo, Mozambique, Uganda.

✅ Scaling renewables: solar, wind, green ammonia for export.

Mike Sangster, Senior Vice President for Africa at TotalEnergies, will play a pivotal role in the upcoming Invest in African Energy (IAE) Forum, which will take place in Paris on May 13-14, 2025. As a key figure in one of the world’s largest energy companies, Sangster's participation in the forum is expected to offer crucial insights into Africa’s evolving energy landscape, particularly in the areas of oil, gas, and renewable energy.

TotalEnergies' Role in Africa's Energy Landscape

TotalEnergies has long been a major player in Africa’s energy sector, driving development across both emerging and established markets. The company has a significant footprint in countries such as Namibia, the Republic of Congo, Libya, Mozambique, Uganda, and South Africa. TotalEnergies’ investments span both traditional oil and gas projects as well as renewable energy initiatives, reflecting its commitment to a more diversified energy future for Africa.

In Namibia, for instance, TotalEnergies is advancing its Venus-1 discovery, with plans to produce its first oil by the end of the decade. The company is also heavily involved in the Orange Basin exploration. Meanwhile, in the Republic of Congo, TotalEnergies is investing $600 million to enhance deepwater production at its Moho Nord field.

Beyond oil and gas, the company is expanding its renewable energy portfolio across the continent. This includes significant solar, wind, and hydropower projects, such as the 500 MW Sadada solar project in Libya, a 216 MW solar plant with battery storage in South Africa, and a 1 GW wind and solar project in Morocco designed to produce green ammonia for export.

The Invest in African Energy Forum

The IAE Forum, which TotalEnergies’ Sangster will headline, is an exclusive event aimed at facilitating investment between African energy markets and global investors, including discussions on COVID-19 funding for electricity access mechanisms that emerged, and their relevance to current capital flows. With a focus on fostering partnerships and discussions about the future of energy in Africa, the event will bring together industry experts, project developers, investors, and policymakers for two days of intensive engagement.

The forum will also serve as a crucial platform for sharing perspectives on the role of private investment, as outlined in the IEA investment outlook for Africa's power systems, in Africa’s energy future, strategies for unlocking new upstream opportunities, and the transition to a more sustainable energy system. This makes Sangster's participation, as someone directly involved in both conventional and renewable energy projects across the continent, particularly significant.

TotalEnergies' Diversified Strategy in Africa

Sangster’s keynote address and participation in an exclusive fireside chat will provide an in-depth look into TotalEnergies’ strategy for Africa. His insights will touch upon the company's ongoing projects in the oil and gas sectors, as well as its renewable energy investments. TotalEnergies has committed to making its portfolio more sustainable, underscored by its recent VSB acquisition to expand renewables capabilities, while continuing to be a leader in the energy transition.

One of the company’s notable projects is the Mozambique LNG initiative, a $20 billion venture aimed at supplying liquefied natural gas to international markets. Additionally, TotalEnergies is gearing up for the first oil from its Tilenga field in Uganda, which will be transported through the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP), the longest heated crude oil pipeline in the world.

In South Africa, TotalEnergies is constructing one of the largest renewable energy projects, a 216 MW solar power plant with integrated battery storage. This project is expected to significantly contribute to the country’s clean energy ambitions. Furthermore, in Morocco, TotalEnergies is developing a major wind and solar facility that will produce green ammonia, aligning with its broader strategy to provide solutions for Europe’s energy needs.

Africa’s Energy Transition

The forum’s timing could not be more critical, given the pressing need for an energy transition in Africa. While the continent remains heavily reliant on fossil fuels for its energy needs, there is growing momentum toward incorporating renewable energy sources, a point reinforced by the IRENA renewables report on decarbonisation and quality of life, which highlights the transformative potential. Africa’s vast natural resources, combined with global investments and partnerships, position the continent as a key player in the global shift toward sustainable energy.

However, Africa faces unique challenges in transitioning to renewable energy, reflecting a broader Sub-Saharan electricity challenge that also presents opportunity, across many markets. These challenges include a lack of infrastructure, financial constraints, and the need for increased political stability in certain regions. The IAE Forum provides an opportunity to address these barriers, with industry leaders like Sangster offering solutions based on real-world experiences and investments.

As the energy sector continues to evolve globally, and even if electricity systems are unlikely to go fully green this decade according to some outlooks, Africa's potential remains vast. The continent’s diverse energy resources, from oil and gas to renewables, offer a unique opportunity to build a more sustainable and resilient energy future. The Invest in African Energy Forum serves as an important platform for global stakeholders to collaborate, learn, and invest in the energy transformation taking place across the continent.

Mike Sangster’s insights at the forum will undoubtedly shape discussions on how companies like TotalEnergies are navigating the intersection of universal electricity access goals, sustainability, and economic growth in Africa. With Africa’s energy needs expected to increase exponentially in the coming decades, ensuring that these needs are met sustainably and equitably will be a priority for both policymakers and private investors.

As the global energy landscape continues to shift, the Invest in African Energy Forum provides a critical space for shaping the future of Africa’s energy sector, offering invaluable opportunities for investment, innovation, and collaboration.

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Bruce Power Capacity Uprate boosts nuclear output through generator stator upgrades, turbine and transformer enhancements, and cooling pump improvements at Bruce A and B, unlocking megawatts and efficiency gains from legacy heavy water design capacity.

Key Points

Upgrades that raise Bruce Power capacity via stator, turbine, transformer, and cooling enhancements.

✅ Generator stator replacement increases electrical conversion efficiency

✅ Turbine and transformer upgrades enable higher MW output

✅ Cooling pump enhancements optimize plant thermal performance

Bruce Power’s Unit 3 nuclear reactor will squeeze out an extra 22 megawatts of electricity, thanks to upgrades during its recent planned outage for refurbishment.

Similar gains are anticipated at its three sister reactors at Bruce A generating station, which presents the opportunity for the biggest efficiency gains and broader economic benefits for Ontario, due to a design difference over Bruce B’s four reactors, Bruce Power spokesman John Peevers said.

Bruce A reactor efficiency gains stem mainly from the fact Bruce A’s non-nuclear side, including turbines and the generator, was sized at 88 per cent of the nuclear capacity, Peevers said, while early Bruce C exploration work advances.

This allowed 12 per cent of the energy, in the form of steam, to be used for heavy water production, which was discontinued at the plant years ago. Heavy water, or deuterium, is used to moderate the reactors.

That design difference left a potential excess capacity that Bruce Power is making use of through various non-nuclear enhancements. But the nuclear operator, which also made major PPE donations during the pandemic, will be looking at enhancements at Bruce B as well, Peevers said.

Bruce Power’s efficiency gain came from “technology advancements,” including a “generator-stator improvement project that was integral to the uprate,” and contributed to an operating record at the site, a Bruce Power news release said July 11.

Peevers said the stationary coils and the associated iron cores inside the generator are referred to as the stator. The stator acts as a conductor for the main generator current, while the turbine provides the mechanical torque on the shaft of the generator.

“Some of the other things we’re working on are transformer replacement and cooling pump enhancements, backed by recent manufacturing contracts, which also help efficiency and contribute to greater megawatt output,” Peevers said.

The added efficiency improvements raised the nuclear operator’s peak generating capacity to 6,430 MW, as projects like Pickering life extensions continue across Ontario.

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EDF Nuclear Power Price Deal sets a 70 euros/MWh reference price, adds consumer protection if wholesale electricity prices exceed 110 euros/MWh, and outlines taxation mechanisms to shield bills while funding nuclear investment.

Key Points

A government-EDF deal setting 70 euros/MWh with safeguards above 110 euros/MWh to protect consumers.

✅ Reference price fixed at 70 euros/MWh, near EDF costs.

✅ Consumer shield above 110 euros/MWh; up to 90% extra-revenue tax.

✅ Review clauses maintain 70 euros/MWh through market swings.

State-controlled power group EDF and the French government have reached a tentative deal on future nuclear power prices, echoing a new electricity pricing scheme France has floated, a source close to the government said on Monday, ending months of tense negotiations.

The two sides agreed on 70 euros per megawatt hour (MWH) as a reference level for power prices, aligning with EU plans for more fixed-price contracts for consumers, the source said, cautioning that details of the deal are still being finalised.

The negotiations aimed to find a compromise between EDF, which is eager to maximise revenues to fund investments, and the government, keen to keep electricity bills for French households and businesses as low as possible, amid ongoing EU electricity reform debates across the bloc.

EDF declined to comment.

The preliminary deal sets out mechanisms that would protect consumers if power market prices rise above 110 euros/MWH, similar to potential emergency electricity measures being weighed in Europe, the source said, adding that the deal also includes clauses that would provide a price guarantee for EDF.

The 70 euros/MWH agreed reference price level is close to EDF's nuclear production costs, as Europe moves to revamp its electricity market more broadly. The nuclear power produced by the company provides 70% of France's electricity.

The agreement would allow the government to tax EDF's extra revenues at 90% if prices surpass 110 euros/MWH, in order to offset the impact on consumers. It would also enable a review of conditions in case of market fluctuations to safeguard the 70 euro level for EDF, reflecting how rolling back electricity prices is tougher than it appears, the source said.

French wholesale electricity prices are still above 100 euros/MWH, after climbing to 1,200 euros during last year's energy crisis, even as diesel prices have returned to pre-conflict levels.

A final agreement should be officially announced on Tuesday after a meeting between Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire, Energy Transition Minister Agnes Pannier-Runacher and EDF chief Luc Remont.

That meeting will work out the final details on price thresholds and tax rates between the reference level and the upper limit, the source said.

Negotiations between the two sides were so fraught that at one stage they raised questions about the future of EDF chief Luc Remont, who was appointed by President Emmanuel Macron a year ago to turn around EDF.

The group ended 2022 with a 18 billion-euro loss and almost 65 billion euros of net debt, hurt by a record number of reactor outages that coincided with soaring energy prices in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

With its output at a 30-year low, EDF was forced to buy electricity on the market to supply customers. The government, meanwhile, imposed a cap on electricity prices, leaving EDF selling power at a discount.

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AWS Renewable Energy Projects deliver new wind power for AWS data centers in Ireland, Sweden, and the US, adding 229 MW and 670,000 MWh annually, supporting 100% renewable targets and global cloud sustainability.

Key Points

AWS projects add wind power in Ireland, Sweden, and the US to supply clean energy for AWS data centers.

✅ 229 MW new wind capacity; 670,000 MWh annual generation

✅ Sites: Donegal (IE), Backhammar (SE), Tehachapi (US)

✅ Advances 100% renewable goal for global AWS infrastructure

 Amazon has announced three new clean energy projects as part of its long-term goal to power all Amazon Web Services (AWS) global infrastructure with renewable energy. These projects – one in Ireland, one in Sweden, and one in the United States – will deliver wind-generated energy that will total over 229 megawatts (MW) of power, with expected generation of over 670,000 megawatt hours (MWh) of renewable energy annually. The new projects are part of AWS’s long-term commitment to achieve 100 percent renewable energy for its global infrastructure. In 2018, AWS exceeded 50 percent renewable energy for its global infrastructure.

Once complete, these projects, combined with AWS’s previous nine renewable energy projects, reflect how renewable power developers benefit from diversified sources and are expected to generate more than 2,700,000 MWh of renewable energy annually – equivalent to the annual electricity consumption of over 262,000 US homes, which is approximately the size of the city of Nashville, Tennessee.

“Each of these projects brings us closer to our long-term commitment to use 100 percent renewable energy to power our global AWS infrastructure,” said Peter DeSantis, Vice President of Global Infrastructure and Customer Support, Amazon Web Services. “These projects are well-positioned to serve AWS data centers in Ireland, Sweden, and the US. We expect more projects in 2019 as we continue toward our goal of powering all AWS global infrastructure with renewable energy.”

Amazon has committed to buying the energy from a new wind project in Ireland, a 91.2 MW wind farm in Donegal. The Donegal wind farm project is expected to deliver clean energy no later than the end of 2021.

“AWS’s investment in renewable projects in Ireland illustrates their continued commitment to adding clean energy to the grid and it will make a positive contribution to Ireland’s renewable energy goals,” said Leo Varadkar, An Taoiseach of Ireland. “As a significant employer in Ireland, it is very encouraging to see Amazon taking a lead on this issue. We look forward to continuing to work with Amazon as we strive to make Ireland a leader on renewable energy.”

Amazon will also purchase 91 MW of power from a new wind farm in Bäckhammar, Sweden, which is expected to deliver renewable energy by the end of 2020.

“Sweden has long been known for ambitious renewable energy goals, and this new wind farm showcases both our country’s leadership and AWS’s commitment to renewable energy,” said Anders Ygeman, Sweden’s Minister for Energy and Digital Development. “This is a significant step in Sweden’s renewable energy production as we work toward our target of 100 percent renewable energy by 2040.”

California leads the United States in renewable electricity generation from non-hydroelectric sources, as US solar and wind growth accelerates, and the state’s Tehachapi Mountains, where AWS’s wind farm will be located, contain some of the largest wind farms in the country. The wind farm project in Tehachapi is expected to bring up to 47 MW of new renewable energy capacity by the end of 2020.

“This announcement from AWS is great news, not just for California, but for the entire country, as it reaffirms our role as a leader in renewable energy and allows us to take an important step forward on deploying the clean energy we need to respond to climate change,” said California State Senator Jerry Hill, San Mateo and Santa Clara Counties, a member of the Senate Standing Committee on Energy, Utilities and Communications.

Beyond the sustainability initiatives focused on powering the AWS global infrastructure, Amazon recently announced Shipment Zero, which is Amazon’s vision to make all Amazon shipments net zero carbon, with 50 percent of all shipments net zero by 2030. Additional sustainability programs across the company include Amazon Wind Farm Texas, which adds more than 1 million MWh of clean energy each year, alongside Amazon Wind Farm US East that is now fully operational, demonstrating scale. In total, Amazon has enabled 53 wind and solar projects worldwide, which produce more than 1,016 MW and are expected to deliver over 3,075,636 million MWh of energy annually, while peers like Arvato's solar power plant underscore broader momentum across the industry. These projects support hundreds of jobs, while providing tens of millions of dollars of investment in local communities, with Iowa wind power offering a strong example. Amazon has also set a goal to host solar energy systems at 50 fulfillment centers by 2020. This deployment of rooftop solar systems, aided by cheap batteries that enhance storage, is part of a long-term initiative that will start in North America and spread across the globe. Amazon also implemented the District Energy Project that uses recycled energy for heating Amazon offices in Seattle. For more information on Amazon’s sustainability initiatives, visit www.amazon.com/sustainability.

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