Texas approves massive new wind project

China Power Demand-Emissions Gap highlights surging grid demand outpacing renewables, with coal filling shortages despite record solar, wind, EV charging, and hydrogen growth, threatening decarbonization targets and net-zero pathways through 2030.

Key Points

China's power demand outpaces renewables, keeping coal dominant and raising emissions risk through the 2020s.

✅ Record solar and wind still lag fast grid demand growth

✅ Coal fills gaps as EV charging and hydrogen loads rise

✅ Forecasts diverge: CEC bullish vs IEA, BNEF conservative

Here’s a new obstacle that could prevent the world finally turning the corner on climate change: Imagine that over the coming decade a whole new economy the size of Russia were to pop up out of nowhere. With the world’s fourth-largest electricity sector and largest burden of power plant emissions after China, the U.S. and India, this new economy on its own would be enough to throw out efforts to halt global warming — especially if it keeps on growing through the 2030s.

That’s the risk inherent in China’s seemingly insatiable appetite for grid power, as surging electricity demand is putting systems under strain worldwide.

From the cracking pace of renewable build-out last year, you might think the country had broken the back of its carbon addiction. A record 55 gigawatts of solar power and 48 gigawatts of wind were connected — comparable to installing the generation capacity of Mexico in less than 12 months. This year will see an even faster pace, with 93 GW of solar and 50 GW of wind added, according to a report last week from the China Electricity Council, an industry association.

That progress could in theory see the country’s power sector emissions peak within months, rather than the late-2020s date the government has hinted at. Combined with a smaller quantity of hydro and nuclear, low-emissions sources will probably add about 310 terawatt-hours to zero-carbon generation this year. That 3.8% increase would be sufficient to power the U.K.

Countries that have reached China’s levels of per-capita electricity consumption (already on a par with most of Europe) typically see growth rates at less than half that level, even as global power demand has surged past pre-pandemic levels in recent years. Grid supply could grow at a faster pace than Brazil, Iran, South Korea or Thailand managed over the past decade without adding a ton of additional carbon to the atmosphere.

There’s a problem with that picture, however. If electricity demand grows at an even more headlong pace, there simply won’t be enough renewables to supply the grid. Fossil fuels, overwhelmingly coal, will fill the gap, a reminder of the iron law of climate dynamics in energy transitions.

Such an outcome looks distinctly possible. Electricity consumption in 2021 grew at an extraordinary rate of 10%, and will increase again by between 5% and 6% this year, according to the CEC. That suggests the country is on pace to match the CEC’s forecasts of bullish grid demand over the coming decade, with generation hitting 11,300 terawatt-hours in 2030. External analysts, such as the International Energy Agency and BloombergNEF, envisage a more modest growth to around 10,000 TWh. 

The difference between those two outlooks is vast — equivalent to all the electricity produced by Russia or Japan. If the CEC is right and the IEA and BloombergNEF are wrong, even the furious rate of renewable installations we’re seeing now won’t be enough to rein in China’s power-sector emissions.

Who’s correct? On one hand, it’s fair to say that power planners usually err on the side of overestimation. If your forecast for electricity demand is too high, state-owned generators will be less profitable than they otherwise would have been — but if it’s too low, you’ll see power cuts and shutdowns like China witnessed last autumn, with resulting power woes affecting supply chains beyond its borders.

On the other hand, the decarbonization of China’s economy itself should drive electricity demand well above what we’ve seen in the past, with some projections such as electricity meeting 60% of energy use by 2060 pointing to a profound shift. Some 3.3 million electric vehicles were sold in 2021 and BloombergNEF estimates a further 5.7 million will be bought in 2022. Every million EVs will likely add in the region of 2 TWh of load to the grid. Those sums quickly mounts up in a country where electric drivetrains are taking over a market that shifts more than 25 million new cars a year.

Decarbonizing industry, a key element on China’s road to zero emissions, could also change the picture. The IEA sees the country building 25 GW of electolysers to produce hydrogen by 2030, enough to consume some 200 TWh on their own if run close to full-time.

That’s still not enough to justify the scale of demand being forecast, though. China is already one of the least efficient countries in the world when it comes to translating energy into economic growth, and despite official pressure on the most wasteful, so called “dual-high” industries such as steel, oil refining, glass and cement, its targets for more thrifty energy usage remain pedestrian.

The countries that have decarbonized fastest are those, such as Germany, the U.K and the U.S., where Americans are using less electricity, that have seen power demand plateau or even decline, giving new renewable power a chance to swap out fossil-fired generators without chasing an ever-increasing burden on the grid. China’s inability to do this as its population peaks and energy consumption hits developed-country levels isn’t a sign of strength.

Instead, it’s a sign of a country that’s chronically unable to make the transition away from polluting heavy industry and toward the common prosperity and ecological civilization that its president keeps promising. Until China reins in that credit-fueled development model, the risks to its economy and the global climate will only increase.

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Alberta Electricity Price Hikes spotlight grid reliability, renewable transition, coal phase-out, and energy poverty, as policy shifts and investor reports warn of rate increases, biomass trade-offs, and sustainability challenges impacting households and businesses.

Key Points

Projected power bill hikes from market reforms, renewables, coal phase-out, and reliability costs in Alberta.

✅ Investor report projects 3x-7x bills and $50B market transition costs

✅ Policy missteps cited in Ontario, Germany, Australia price spikes

✅ Debate: retain coal vs. speed renewables, storage, and grid upgrades

Since when did electricity become a scarce resource?

I thought all the talk about greening the grid was about having renewable, sustainable, less polluting options to fulfill our growing need for power. Yet, increasingly, we are faced with news stories that indicate using power is bad in and of itself, even as flat electricity demand worries utilities.

The implication, I guess, is that we should be using less of it. But, I don’t want to use less electricity. I want to be able to watch TV, turn my lights on when the sun sets at 4 p.m. in the winter, keep my food cold and power my devices.

We once had a consensus that a reliable supply of power was essential to a growing economy and a high quality of life, a point underscored by brownout risks in U.S. markets.

I’m beginning to wonder if we still have that consensus.

And more importantly, if our decision makers have determined electricity is a vice as opposed to an essential of life – as debates over Alberta electricity policy suggest – you know what is going to happen next. Prices are going to rise, forcing all of us to use less.

How much would it hurt your bottom line if your electricity bill went up three-fold? How about seven-fold? That is the grim picture that Todd Beasley painted for us on Tuesday’s show.

Last week, he launched a campaign on behalf of Albertans for Sustainable Electricity, called Stop the Shock. He shared the results of an internal investor report that concluded Alberta’s power market overhaul would cost an estimated $50 billion to implement and could result in a three to seven-fold increase in electricity bills.

Now, my typical power bill averages $70 a month. That would be like having it grow to $210 a month, or just over $2,500 a year. If it’s a seven-fold increase that would be more like $5,000 a year. That may be manageable for some families, but I can think of a lot of things I’d rather do with $5,000 than pay more to keep my fridge running so my food doesn’t spoil.

For low-income families that would be a real hardship.

Beasley said Ontario’s inept handling of its electricity market and the phase-out of coal power resulted in price spikes that left more than 70,000 individuals facing energy poverty.

Germany and Australia realized they made the same mistake and are returning some electricity to coal.

Beasley shared a long list of Canadian firms – including our own Canadian Pension Plan – that are investing in coal development around the world. Meanwhile, Canadian governments remain in a mad rush to phase it out here. That’s not the only hypocrisy.

Rupert Darwall, author of Green Tyranny: Exposing the Totalitarian Roots of the Climate Industrial Complex, revealed in a recent column what he calls “the scandal at the heart of the EU’s renewable policies.”

Turns out most of their expansion in renewable energy has come from biomass in the form of wood. Not only does burning wood produce more CO2, it also eliminates carbon sinks.

To meet the EU’s 2030 target would require cutting down trees equivalent to the combined harvest in Canada and the United States. As he puts it, “Whichever way you look at it, burning the world’s carbon sinks to meet the EU’s arbitrary renewable energy targets is environmentally insane.”

Beasley’s group is trying to bring some sanity back to the discussion. The goal should be to move to a greener grid while maintaining abundant, reliable and cheap power, and examples like Texas grid improvements show practical steps. He thinks to achieve all these goals, coal should remain part of the mix. What do you think?

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2022 U.S. Power Outage Statistics show lower SAIDI as fewer major events hit, with SAIFI trends, electric reliability, outage duration and frequency shaped by hurricanes, winter storms, vegetation, and utility practices across states.

Key Points

They report SAIDI and SAIFI for 2022, showing outage duration, frequency, and impacts of major weather events.

✅ 2022 SAIDI averaged 5.6 hours; SAIFI averaged 1.4 interruptions.

✅ Fewer major events lowered outage duration versus 2021.

✅ Hurricanes and winter storms drove long outages in several states.

In 2022, U.S. electricity consumers on average experienced about 5.5 hours of power disruptions, a decrease from nearly two hours compared to 2021. This information comes from the latest Annual Electric Power Industry Report. The reduction in yearly power interruptions primarily resulted from fewer significant events in 2022 compared to the previous year, and utility disaster planning continues to support grid resilience as severe weather persists.

Since 2013, excluding major events, the annual average duration of power interruptions has consistently hovered around two hours. Factors contributing to major power disruptions include weather-related incidents, vegetation interference near power lines, and specific utility practices, while pandemic-related grid operations influenced workforce planning more than outage frequency. To assess the reliability of U.S. electric utilities, two key indexes are utilized:

• The System Average Interruption Duration Index (SAIDI) calculates the total length (in hours) an average customer endures non-brief power interruptions over a year.
• The System Average Interruption Frequency Index (SAIFI) tracks the number of times interruptions occur.

The influence of major events on electrical reliability is gauged by comparing affected states' SAIDI and SAIFI values against the U.S. average, which was 5.6 hours of outages and 1.4 outages per customer in 2022. The year witnessed 18 weather-related disasters in the U.S., each resulting in over $1 billion in damages, and COVID-19 grid assessments indicated the electricity system was largely safe from pandemic impacts. Noteworthy major events include:

• Hurricane Ian in September 2022, leaving over 2.6 million Floridian customers without electricity, with restoration in some areas taking weeks rather than days.
• Hurricane Nicole in November 2022, causing over 300,000 Florida customers to lose power.
• Winter Storm Elliott in December 2022, affecting over 1.5 million customers in multiple states including Texas where utilities struggled after Hurricane Harvey to restore service, and Florida, and bringing up to four feet of snow in parts of New York.

In 2022, states like Florida, West Virginia, Maine, Vermont, and New Hampshire experienced the most prolonged power interruptions, with New Hampshire averaging 10.3 hours and Florida 19.1 hours, and FPL's Irma storm response illustrates how restoration can take days or weeks in severe cases. Conversely, the District of Columbia, Delaware, Rhode Island, Nebraska, and Iowa had the shortest total interruptions, with the District of Columbia averaging just 34 minutes and Iowa 85 minutes.

The frequency of outages, unlike their duration, is more often linked to non-major events. Across the nation, Alaska recorded the highest number of power disruptions per customer (averaging 3.5), followed by several heavily forested states like Tennessee and Maine. Power outages due to falling tree branches are common, particularly during winter storms that burden tree limbs and power lines, as seen in a North Seattle outage affecting 13,000 customers. The District of Columbia stood out with the shortest and fewest outages per customer.

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Nuclear Waste Corrosion accelerates as stainless steel, glass, and ceramics interact in aqueous conditions, driving localized corrosion in repositories like Yucca Mountain, according to Nature Materials research on high-level radioactive waste storage.

Key Points

Degradation of waste forms and canisters from water-driven chemistry, causing accelerated, localized corrosion in storage.

✅ Stainless steel-glass contact triggers severe localized attack

✅ Ceramics and steel co-corrosion observed under aqueous conditions

✅ Yucca Mountain-like chemistry accelerates waste form degradation

The materials the United States and other countries plan to use to store high-level nuclear waste, even as utilities expand carbon-free electricity portfolios, will likely degrade faster than anyone previously knew because of the way those materials interact, new research shows.

The findings, published today in the journal Nature Materials (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41563-019-0579-x), show that corrosion of nuclear waste storage materials accelerates because of changes in the chemistry of the nuclear waste solution, and because of the way the materials interact with one another.

"This indicates that the current models may not be sufficient to keep this waste safely stored," said Xiaolei Guo, lead author of the study and deputy director of Ohio State's Center for Performance and Design of Nuclear Waste Forms and Containers, part of the university's College of Engineering. "And it shows that we need to develop a new model for storing nuclear waste."

Beyond waste storage, options like carbon capture technologies are being explored to reduce atmospheric CO2 alongside nuclear energy.

The team's research focused on storage materials for high-level nuclear waste -- primarily defense waste, the legacy of past nuclear arms production. The waste is highly radioactive. While some types of the waste have half-lives of about 30 years, others -- for example, plutonium -- have a half-life that can be tens of thousands of years. The half-life of a radioactive element is the time needed for half of the material to decay.

The United States currently has no disposal site for that waste; according to the U.S. General Accountability Office, it is typically stored near the nuclear power plants where it is produced. A permanent site has been proposed for Yucca Mountain in Nevada, though plans have stalled. Countries around the world have debated the best way to deal with nuclear waste; only one, Finland, has started construction on a long-term repository for high-level nuclear waste.

But the long-term plan for high-level defense waste disposal and storage around the globe is largely the same, even as the U.S. works to sustain nuclear power for decarbonization efforts. It involves mixing the nuclear waste with other materials to form glass or ceramics, and then encasing those pieces of glass or ceramics -- now radioactive -- inside metallic canisters. The canisters then would be buried deep underground in a repository to isolate it.

At the generation level, regulators are advancing EPA power plant rules on carbon capture to curb emissions while nuclear waste strategies evolve.

In this study, the researchers found that when exposed to an aqueous environment, glass and ceramics interact with stainless steel to accelerate corrosion, especially of the glass and ceramic materials holding nuclear waste.

In parallel, the electrical grid's reliance on SF6 insulating gas has raised warming concerns across Europe.

The study qualitatively measured the difference between accelerated corrosion and natural corrosion of the storage materials. Guo called it "severe."

"In the real-life scenario, the glass or ceramic waste forms would be in close contact with stainless steel canisters. Under specific conditions, the corrosion of stainless steel will go crazy," he said. "It creates a super-aggressive environment that can corrode surrounding materials."

To analyze corrosion, the research team pressed glass or ceramic "waste forms" -- the shapes into which nuclear waste is encapsulated -- against stainless steel and immersed them in solutions for up to 30 days, under conditions that simulate those under Yucca Mountain, the proposed nuclear waste repository.

Those experiments showed that when glass and stainless steel were pressed against one another, stainless steel corrosion was "severe" and "localized," according to the study. The researchers also noted cracks and enhanced corrosion on the parts of the glass that had been in contact with stainless steel.

Part of the problem lies in the Periodic Table. Stainless steel is made primarily of iron mixed with other elements, including nickel and chromium. Iron has a chemical affinity for silicon, which is a key element of glass.

The experiments also showed that when ceramics -- another potential holder for nuclear waste -- were pressed against stainless steel under conditions that mimicked those beneath Yucca Mountain, both the ceramics and stainless steel corroded in a "severe localized" way.

Other Ohio State researchers involved in this study include Gopal Viswanathan, Tianshu Li and Gerald Frankel.

This work was funded in part by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science.

Meanwhile, U.S. monitoring shows potent greenhouse gas declines confirming the impact of control efforts across the energy sector.

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Ontario Pickering Nuclear Closure will shift supply to natural gas, raising emissions as the electricity grid manages nuclear refurbishment, IESO planning, clean power imports, and new wind, solar, and storage to support electrification.

Key Points

Ontario will close Pickering and rely on natural gas, increasing emissions while other nuclear units are refurbished.

✅ 14% of Ontario electricity supplied by Pickering now

✅ Natural gas use rises; grid emissions projected up 375%

✅ IESO warns gas phaseout by 2030 risks blackouts, costs

The Ontario government will not reconsider plans to close the Pickering nuclear station and instead stop-gap the consequent electricity shortfall with natural gas-generated power in a move that will, as an analysis of Ontario's grid shows, hike the province’s greenhouse gas emissions substantially in the coming years.

In a report released this week, a nuclear advocacy group urged Ontario to refurbish the aging facility east of Toronto, which is set to be shuttered in phases in 2024 and 2025, prompting debate over a clean energy plan after Pickering as the closure nears. The closure of Pickering, which provides 14 per cent of the province’s annual electricity supply, comes at the same time as Ontario’s other two nuclear stations are undergoing refurbishment and operating at reduced capacity.

Canadians for Nuclear Energy, which is largely funded by power workers' unions, argued closing the 50-year-old facility will result in job losses, emissions increases, heightened reliance on imported natural gas and an electricity supply gap across Ontario.

But Palmer Lockridge, spokesperson for the provincial energy minister, said further extending Pickering’s lifespan isn’t on the table.

“As previously announced in 2020, our government is supporting Ontario Power Generation’s plan to safely extend the life of the Pickering Nuclear Generating Station through the end of 2025,” said Lockridge in an emailed response to questions.

“Going forward, we are ensuring a reliable, affordable and clean electricity system for decades to come. That’s why we put a plan in place that ensures we are prepared for the emerging energy needs following the closure of Pickering, and as a result of our government’s success in growing and electrifying the province’s economy.”

The Progressive Conservative government under Premier Doug Ford has invested heavily in electrification, sinking billions into electric vehicle and battery manufacturing and industries like steel-making to retool plants to run on electricity rather than coal, and exploring new large-scale nuclear plants to bolster baseload supply.

Natural gas now provides about seven per cent of the province’s energy, a piece of the pie that will rise significantly as nuclear energy dwindles. Emissions from Ontario’s electricity grid, which is currently one of the world’s cleanest with 94 per cent zero-emission power generation, are projected to rise a whopping 375 per cent as the province turns increasingly to natural gas generation. Those increases will effectively undo a third of the hard-won emissions reductions the province achieved by phasing out coal-fired power generation.

The Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO), which manages Ontario’s grid, studied whether the province could phase out natural gas generation by 2030 and concluded that “would result in blackouts and hinder electrification” and increase average residential electricity costs by $100 per month.

The Ontario Clean Air Alliance, however, obtained draft documents from the electricity operator that showed it had studied, but not released publicly, other scenarios that involved phasing out natural gas without energy shortfalls, price hikes or increases in emissions.

The Ontario government will not reconsider plans to close the Pickering nuclear station and instead stop-gap the consequent electricity shortfall facing Ontario with natural gas-generated power in a move that will hike the province’s greenhouse gas emissions.

One model suggested increasing carbon taxes and imports of clean energy from other provinces could keep blackouts, costs and emissions at bay, while another involved increasing energy efficiency, wind generation and storage.

“By banning gas-fired electricity exports to the U.S., importing all the Quebec water power we can with the existing transmission lines and investing in energy efficiency and wind and solar and storage — do all those things and you can phase out gas-fired power and lower our bills,” said Jack Gibbons, chair of the Ontario Clean Air Alliance.

The IESO has argued in response that the study of those scenarios was not complete and did not include many of the challenges associated with phasing out natural gas plants.

Ontario Energy Minister Todd Smith asked the IESO to develop “an achievable pathway to zero-emissions in the electricity sector and evaluate a moratorium on new-build natural gas generation stations,” said his spokesperson. That report, an early look at halting gas power, is expected in November.

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Ottawa Sewage Energy Exchange System uses wastewater heat recovery and efficient heat pumps to deliver renewable district energy, zero carbon heating and cooling, cutting greenhouse gas emissions at LeBreton Flats and scaling urban developments.

Key Points

A district energy system recovering wastewater heat via pumps to deliver zero carbon heating and cooling.

✅ Delivers 9 MW heating and cooling for 2.4M sq ft at LeBreton Flats

✅ Cuts 5,066 tonnes CO2e each year, reducing greenhouse gases

✅ Powers Odenak zero carbon housing via district energy

Ottawa is embarking on a groundbreaking initiative to harness the latent thermal energy within its wastewater system, in tandem with advances in energy storage in Ontario that strengthen grid resilience, marking a significant stride toward sustainable urban development. The Sewage Energy Exchange System (SEES) project, a collaborative effort led by the LeBreton Community Utility Partnership—which includes Envari Holding Inc. (a subsidiary of Hydro Ottawa) and Theia Partners—aims to revolutionize how the city powers its buildings.

Harnessing Wastewater for Sustainable Energy

The SEES will utilize advanced heat pump technology to extract thermal energy from the city's wastewater infrastructure, providing both heating and cooling to buildings within the LeBreton Flats redevelopment. This innovative approach eliminates the need for fossil fuels, aligning with Ottawa's commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and promoting clean energy solutions across the province, including the Hydrogen Innovation Fund that supports new low-carbon pathways.

The system operates by diverting sewage from the municipal collection network into an external well, where it undergoes filtration to remove large solids. The filtered water is then passed through a heat exchanger, transferring thermal energy to the building's heating and cooling systems. After the energy is extracted, the treated water is safely returned to the city's sewer system.

Environmental and Economic Impact

Once fully implemented, the SEES is projected to deliver over 9 megawatts of heating and cooling capacity, servicing approximately 2.4 million square feet of development. This capacity is expected to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by approximately 5,066 tonnes annually—equivalent to the electricity consumption of over 3,300 homes for a year. Such reductions are pivotal in helping Ottawa meet its ambitious goal of achieving a 96% reduction in community-wide greenhouse gas emissions by 2040, as outlined in its Climate Change Master Plan and Energy Evolution strategy, and they align with Ontario's plan to rely on battery storage to meet rising demand across the grid.

Integration with the Odenak Development

The first phase of the SEES will support the Odenak development, a mixed-use project comprising two high-rise residential buildings. This development is poised to be Canada's largest residential zero-carbon project, echoing calls for Northern Ontario grid sustainability from community groups, featuring 601 housing units, with 41% designated as affordable housing. The integration of the SEES will ensure that Odenak operates entirely on renewable energy, setting a benchmark for future urban developments.

Broader Implications and Future Expansion

The SEES project is not just a localized initiative; it represents a scalable model for sustainable urban energy solutions that aligns with green energy investments in British Columbia and other jurisdictions. The LeBreton Community Utility Partnership is in discussions with the National Capital Commission to explore extending the SEES network to additional parcels within the LeBreton Flats redevelopment. Expanding the system could lead to economies of scale, further reducing costs and enhancing the environmental benefits.

Ottawa's venture into wastewater-based energy systems places it at the forefront of a growing trend in North America. Cities like Toronto and Vancouver have initiated similar projects, while related pilots such as the EV-to-grid pilot in Nova Scotia highlight complementary approaches, and European counterparts have long utilized sewage heat recovery systems. Ottawa's adoption of this technology underscores its commitment to innovation and sustainability in urban planning.

The SEES project at LeBreton Flats exemplifies how cities can repurpose existing infrastructure to create sustainable, low-carbon energy solutions. By transforming wastewater into a valuable energy resource, Ottawa is setting a precedent for environmentally responsible urban development. As the city moves forward with this initiative, it not only addresses immediate energy needs but also contributes to a cleaner, more sustainable future for its residents, even as the province accelerates Ontario's energy storage push to maintain reliability.

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