EU share of electric cars grew during virus lockdown months

Ontario EV V2G Pilots enable bi-directional charging, backup power, and grid services with IESO, Toronto Hydro, and Hydro One, linking energy storage, solar, blockchain apps, and demand response incentives for smarter electrification.

Key Points

Ontario EV V2G pilots test bidirectional charging and backup power to support grid services with apps and incentives.

✅ Tests Nissan Leaf V2H backup with Hydro One and Peak Power.

✅ Integrates solar, storage, blockchain apps via Sky Energy and partners.

✅ Pilots demand response apps in Toronto and Waterloo utilities.

Electric vehicle owners in Ontario may one day be able to use the electricity in their EVs instead of loud diesel or gas generators to provide emergency power during blackouts. They could potentially also sell back energy to the grid when needed. Both are key areas of focus for new pilot projects announced this week by Ontario’s electricity grid operator and partners that include Toronto Hydro and Ontario Hydro.

Three projects announced this week will test the bi-directional power capabilities of current EVs and the grid, all partially funded by the Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) of Ontario, with their announcement in Toronto also attended by Ontario Energy Minister Todd Smith.

The first project is with Hydro One Networks and Peak Power, which will use up to 10 privately owned Nissan Leafs to test what is needed technically to support owners using their cars for vehicle-to-building charging during power outages. It will also study what type of financial incentives will convince EV owners to provide backup power for other users, and therefore the grid.

A second pilot program with solar specialist Sky Energy and engineering firm Hero Energy will study EVs, energy storage, and solar panels to further examine how consumers with potentially more power to offer the grid could do it securely, in part using blockchain technology. York University and Volta Research are other partners in the program, which has already produced an app that can help drivers choose when and how much power to provide the grid — if any.

The third program is with local utilities in Toronto and Waterloo, Ont., and will test a secure digital app that helps EV drivers see the current demands on the grid through improved grid coordination mechanisms, and potentially price an incentive to EV drivers not to charge their vehicles for a few hours. Drivers could also be actively further paid to provide some of the charge currently in their vehicle back to the grid.

It all adds up to $2.7 million in program funding from IESO ($1.1 million) and the associated partners.

“An EV charged in Ontario produces roughly three per cent of emissions of a gas fuelled car,” said IESO’s Carla Nell, vice-president of corporate relations and innovation at the announcement near Peak Power chargers in downtown Toronto. “We know that Ontario consumers are buying EVs, and expected to increase tenfold — so we have to support electrification.”

If these types of programs sound familiar, it may be because utilities in Ontario have been testing such vehicle-to-grid technologies soon after affordable EVs became available in the fall of 2011. One such program was run by PowerStream, now the called Alectra, and headed by Neetika Sathe, who is now Alectra’s vice-president of its Green Energy and Technology (GRE&T) Centre in Guelph, Ont.

The difference between now and those tests in the mid-2010s is that the upcoming wave of EV sales can be clearly seen on the horizon, and California's grid stability work shows how EVs can play a larger role.

“We can see the tsunami now,” she said, noting that cost parity between EVs and gas vehicles is likely four or five years away — without government incentives, she stressed. “Now it’s not a question of if, it’s a question of when — and that when has received much more clarity on it.”

Sathe sees a benefit in studying all these types of bi-directional power-flowing scenarios, but notes that they are future scenarios for years in the future, especially since bi-directional charging equipment — and the vehicles with this capability — are pricey, and largely still not here. What she believes is much closer is the ability to automatically communicate what the grid needs with EV drivers, as Nova Scotia Power pilots integration, and how they could possibly help. For a price, of course.

“If I can set up a system that says ‘oh, the grid is stressed, can you not charge for the next two hours? And here’s what we’ll offer to you for that,’ that’s closer to low-hanging fruit,” she said, noting that Alectra is currently testing out such systems. “Think of it the same way as offering your car for Uber, or a room on Airbnb.”

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Chinese EV Makers in Europe target the EU market with electric SUVs, battery swapping, competitive pricing, and subsidies, led by NIO, Xpeng, MG, and BYD, starting in Norway amid Europe's zero-emissions push.

Key Points

Chinese EV makers expanding into EU markets with tech, pricing, and lean retail to gain share.

✅ Early launches in Norway leverage EV incentives

✅ Compete via battery swapping, OTA tech, and price

✅ Mix of importers, online sales, and lean dealerships

China's electric carmakers are darting into Europe, hoping to catch traditional auto giants cold and seize a slice of a market supercharged by the continent's EV transition towards zero emissions.

Nio Inc (NIO.N), among a small group of challengers, launches its ES8 electric SUV in Oslo on Thursday - the first foray outside China for a company that is virtually unheard of in Europe even though it's valued at about $57 billion.

Other brands unfamiliar to many Europeans that have started selling or plan to sell cars on the continent include Aiways, BYD's (002594.SZ) Tang, SAIC's (600104.SS) MG, Dongfeng's VOYAH, and Great Wall's (601633.SS) ORA.

Yet Europe, a crowded, competitive car market dominated by famous brands, has proved elusive for Chinese carmakers in the past. They made strategic slips and also contended with a perception that China, long associated with cheap mass-production, could not compete on quality.

Indeed, Nio Chief Executive William Li told Reuters he foresees a long road to success in a mature market where it is "very difficult to be successful".

Chinese carmakers may need up to a decade to "gain a firm foothold" in Europe, the billionaire entrepreneur said - a forecast echoed by He Xiaopeng, CEO of electric vehicle (EV) maker Xpeng (9868.HK) who told Reuters his company needs 10 years "to lay a good foundation" on the continent.

These new players, many of which have only ever made electric vehicles, believe they have a window of opportunity to finally crack the lucrative market.

While electric car sales in the European Union more than doubled last year and jumped 130% in the first half of this year, even as threats to the EV boom persist, traditional manufacturers are still gradually shifting their large vehicle ranges over to electric and have yet to flood the thirsty market with models.

"The market is not that busy yet, if you compare it with combustion-engine models where each of the major carmakers has a whole range of vehicles," said Alexander Klose, who heads the foreign operations of Chinese electric vehicle maker Aiways.

"That is where we think we have an opportunity," he added on a drive around Munich in a U5, a crossover SUV on sale in Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium and France, where new EV rules are aimed at discouraging purchases of Chinese models.

The U5 starts at 30,000 euros ($35,000) in Germany - below the average new car price and most local EV prices - before factoring in 9,000 euros in EV subsidies, though France's EV incentives have tightened for Chinese models - and comes in just four colours and two trim levels to minimize costs.

'GERMAN PEOPLE BUY GERMAN CARS'
As Chinese carmakers gear up to enter Europe, they are trying out different business models, from relying on importers, low-cost retail options or building up more traditional dealerships.

The new reality that top Western carmakers like BMW (BMWG.DE) and Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) now produce cars in technological powerhouse China, where the EV market is intensely competitive, has likely undermined past perceptions of low quality workmanship - though they can be hard to shake.

Antje Levers, a teacher who lives in western Germany near the Dutch border, and her husband owned a diesel Chevrolet Orlando but wanted a greener option. They bought an Aiways U5 last year after plenty of research to fend off criticism for not buying local, and loves its handling and low running costs.

She said people had told her: "You can't buy a Chinese car, they're plastic and cheap and do not support German jobs." But she feels that is no longer true in a global car industry where you find German auto parts in Chinese cars and vice versa.

"German people buy German cars, so to buy a Chinese car you need to have a little courage," the 47-year-old added. "Sometimes you just have to be open for new things."

NIO LANDS IN NORWAY WITH NOMI
Nio launches its ES8 electric SUV alongside a NIO House - part-showroom, part-cafe and workspace for customers in the capital of Norway, a country that's also the initial base for Xpeng.

Norwegian state support for EVs has put the country at the forefront of the shift to electric. It makes sense as a European entry point because customers are used to electric vehicles so only have to be sold on an unknown Chinese brand, said Christina Bu, secretary general of the Norwegian EV Association.

"If you go to another European country you may struggle to sell both," said Bu, adding that her organisation has talked extensively with a number of Chinese EV makers keen to learn market specifics and consumer culture before launching there.

She is uncertain, though, how consumers will react to Nio's approach of swapping out batteries for customers rather than stopping to charge them, a contrast to other EV battery strategies in the industry, or the carmaker's strategy of leasing rather than selling batteries to customers.

"But where the Chinese are really at the forefront is the technology," she added, referring in particular to Nomi, the digital assistant in the dashboard of Nio's cars.

NEWCOMERS' STRATEGIES DIVERGE
One size does not fit all. While Nio and Xpeng have been hiring staff building up their organizations in Norway, SAIC's MG works through a car importer to sell cars in a handful of European markets.

Aiways is trying an lower-cost approach to selling cars in Europe, though Klose says it varies by market.

In Germany, for instance, the company sells its cars through Euronics, an association of independent electronics retailers, rather than building traditional dealerships.

It aims to sell across the EU by next year and to enter the U.S. market by 2023, said Klose, a former Volvo and Ford executive.

Past failed attempts by Chinese carmakers to conquer Europe are unlikely to hurt Chinese EV makers today, as consumers have grown accustomed to electronics coming from China, he added.

Such failures included Brilliance in 2007, whose vehicle received one out of five stars in a German car crash test, damaging the brand.

"The fact there are more Chinese carmakers entering the market will also help us, as it will make Chinese brands more accepted by consumers," Klose said.

Selling cars to Europeans is a "tough business, especially if your product isn't well known," said Arnie Richters, chairman of Brussels-based industry group Platform for Electromobility.

"But if they bring a lot of innovation they have a lot of opportunity."

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IEA World Energy Outlook 2020 highlights solar power as the cheapest electricity, projects faster renewables growth, models net-zero pathways, assesses COVID-19 impacts, oil and gas demand, and policy scenarios including STEPS, SDS, and NZE2050.

Key Points

A flagship IEA report analyzing energy trends, COVID-19 impacts, renewables growth, and pathways to net-zero in 2050.

✅ Solar now the cheapest electricity in most major markets

✅ Scenarios: STEPS, SDS, NZE2050, plus delayed recovery case

✅ Oil and gas demand uncertain; CO2 peak needs stronger policy

The world’s best solar power schemes now offer the “cheapest…electricity in history” with the technology cheaper than coal and gas in most major countries.

That is according to the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook 2020. The 464-page outlook, published today by the IEA, also outlines the “extraordinarily turbulent” impact of coronavirus and the “highly uncertain” future of global energy use and progress in the global energy transition over the next two decades.

Reflecting this uncertainty, this year’s version of the highly influential annual outlook offers four “pathways” to 2040, all of which see a major rise in renewables across markets. The IEA’s main scenario has 43% more solar output by 2040 than it expected in 2018, partly due to detailed new analysis showing that solar power is 20-50% cheaper than thought.

Despite a more rapid rise for renewables and a “structural” decline for coal, the IEA says it is too soon to declare a peak in global oil use, unless there is stronger climate action. Similarly, it says demand for gas could rise 30% by 2040, unless the policy response to global warming steps up.

This means that, while global CO2 emissions have effectively peaked flatlining in 2019 according to the IEA, they are “far from the immediate peak and decline” needed to stabilise the climate. The IEA says achieving net-zero emissions will require “unprecedented” efforts from every part of the global economy, not just the power sector.

For the first time, the IEA includes detailed modeling of a 1.5C pathway that reaches global net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050. It says individual behaviour change, such as working from home “three days a week”, would play an “essential” role in reaching this new “net-zero emissions by 2050 case” (NZE2050).

Future scenarios
The IEA’s annual World Energy Outlook (WEO) arrives every autumn and contains some of the most detailed and heavily scrutinised analysis of the global energy system. Over hundreds of densely packed pages, it draws on thousands of datapoints and the IEA’s World Energy Model.

The outlook includes several different scenarios, to reflect uncertainty over the many decisions that will affect the future path of the global economy, as well as the route taken out of the coronavirus crisis during the “critical” next decade. The WEO also aims to inform policymakers by showing how their plans would need to change if they want to shift onto a more sustainable path, including creating the right clean electricity investment incentives to accelerate progress.

This year it omits the “current policies scenario” (CPS), which usually “provides a baseline…by outlining a future in which no new policies are added to those already in place”. This is because “[i]t is difficult to imagine this ‘business as-usual’ approach prevailing in today’s circumstances”.

Those circumstances are the unprecedented fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, which remains highly uncertain as to its depth and duration. The crisis is expected to cause a dramatic decline in global energy demand in 2020, with oil demand also dropping sharply as fossil fuels took the biggest hit.

The main WEO pathway is again the “stated policies scenario” (STEPS, formerly NPS). This shows the impact of government pledges to go beyond the current policy baseline. Crucially, however, the IEA makes its own assessment of whether governments are credibly following through on their targets.

The report explains:

“The STEPS is designed to take a detailed and dispassionate look at the policies that are either in place or announced in different parts of the energy sector. It takes into account long-term energy and climate targets only to the extent that they are backed up by specific policies and measures. In doing so, it holds up a mirror to the plans of today’s policy makers and illustrates their consequences, without second-guessing how these plans might change in future.”

The outlook then shows how plans would need to change to plot a more sustainable path, highlighting efforts to replace fossil fuels with electricity in time to meet climate goals. It says its “sustainable development scenario” (SDS) is “fully aligned” with the Paris target of holding warming “well-below 2C…and pursuing efforts to limit [it] to 1.5C”. (This interpretation is disputed.)

The SDS sees CO2 emissions reach net-zero by 2070 and gives a 50% chance of holding warming to 1.65C, with the potential to stay below 1.5C if negative emissions are used at scale.

The IEA has not previously set out a detailed pathway to staying below 1.5C with 50% probability, with last year’s outlook only offering background analysis and some broad paragraphs of narrative.

For the first time this year, the WEO has “detailed modelling” of a “net-zero emissions by 2050 case” (NZE2050). This shows what would need to happen for CO2 emissions to fall to 45% below 2010 levels by 2030 on the way to net-zero by 2050, with a 50% chance of meeting the 1.5C limit, with countries such as Canada's net-zero electricity needs in focus to get there.

The final pathway in this year’s outlook is a “delayed recovery scenario” (DRS), which shows what might happen if the coronavirus pandemic lingers and the global economy takes longer to recover, with knock-on reductions in the growth of GDP and energy demand.

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U.S. Solar-Plus-Storage Growth 2021-2024 highlights rising battery storage co-location with solar PV, grid flexibility, RTO/ISO market signals, and ITC incentives, enabling peak shaving, firming renewable output, and reliable night-time power.

Key Points

Summary of U.S. plans pairing battery storage with solar PV, guided by RTO/ISO markets, grid needs, and ITC policy.

✅ 9.4 GW (63%) co-located with solar PV by 2024

✅ 97% of standalone capacity sited in RTO/ISO regions

✅ ITC improves project economics and grid services revenue

Of the 14.5 gigawatts (GW) of battery storage power capacity planned to come online amid anticipated growth in solar and storage in the United States from 2021 to 2024, 9.4 GW (63%) will be co-located with a solar photovoltaic (PV) solar-plus-storage power plant, based on data reported to us and published in our Annual Electric Generator Report. Another 1.3 GW of battery storage will be co-located at sites with wind turbines or fossil fuel-fired generators, such as natural gas-fired plants. The remaining 4.0 GW of planned battery storage will be located at standalone sites.

Historically, most U.S. battery systems have been located at standalone sites. Of the 1.5 GW of operating battery storage capacity in the United States at the end of 2020, 71% was standalone, and 29% was located onsite with other power generators.

Most standalone battery energy storage sites have been planned or built in power markets that are governed by regional transmission organizations (RTOs) and independent system operators (ISOs). RTOs and ISOs can enforce standard market rules that lay out clear revenue streams for energy storage projects in their regions, which promotes the deployment of battery storage systems. Of the utility-scale pipeline battery systems announced to come online from 2021 to 2024, 97% of the standalone battery capacity and 60% of the co-located battery capacity are in RTO/ISO regions.

Over 90% of the planned battery storage capacity outside of RTO and ISO regions will be co-located with a solar PV plant. At some solar PV co-located plants, the batteries can charge directly from the onsite solar generator when electricity demand and prices are low. They can then discharge electricity to the grid when peak demand is higher or when solar generation is unavailable, such as at night.

Although factors such as cloud cover can affect solar generation output, solar generators, now the number three renewable source in the U.S., in particular can effectively pair with battery storage because of their relatively regular daily generation patterns. This predictability works well with battery systems because battery systems are limited in how long they can discharge their power capacity before needing to recharge. If paired with a wind turbine, for example, a battery system could go days before having the opportunity to fully recharge.

Another advantage of pairing batteries with renewable generators is the ability to take advantage of tax incentives such as the Investment Tax Credit (ITC), which is available for solar projects, and other favorable government plans supporting deployment.

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Britain Wind Generation Record underscores onshore and offshore wind momentum, as National Grid ESO reported 20.91 GW, boosting zero-carbon electricity, renewables share, and grid stability amid milder weather, falling gas prices, and net zero goals.

Key Points

The Britain wind generation record is 20.91 GW, set on 30 Dec, driven by onshore and offshore turbines.

✅ Set on 30 Dec 2022 with peak output of 20.91 GW.

✅ Zero-carbon sources hit 87.2% of grid supply.

✅ Driven by onshore and offshore wind; ESO reported stability.

Britain has set a new record for wind generation as power from onshore and offshore turbines helped boost clean energy supplies late last year.

National Grid’s electricity system operator (ESO), which handles Great Britain’s grid operations, said that a new record for wind generation was set on 30 December, when 20.91 gigawatts (GW) were produced by turbines.

This represented the third time Britain’s fleet of wind turbines set new generation records in 2022. In May, National Grid had to ask some turbines in the west of Scotland to shut down, as the network was unable to store such a large amount of electricity when a then record 19.9GW of power was produced – enough to boil 3.5m kettles.

The ESO said a new record was also set for the share of electricity on the grid coming from zero-carbon sources – renewables and nuclear – which supplied 87.2% of total power. These sources have accounted for about 55% to 59% of power over the past couple of years.

The surge in wind generation represents a remarkable reversal in fortunes as a cold snap that enveloped Britain and Europe quickly turned to milder weather.

Power prices had soared as the freezing weather forced Britons to increase their heating use, pushing up demand for energy despite high bills.

The cold weather came with a period of low wind, reducing the production of Britain’s windfarms to close to zero.

Emergency coal-fired power units at Drax in North Yorkshire were put on standby but ultimately not used, while gas-fired generation accounted for nearly 60% of the UK’s power output at times.

However, milder weather in the UK and Europe in recent days has led to a reduction in demand from consumers and a fall in wholesale gas prices. It has also reduced the risk of power cuts this winter, which National Grid had warned could be a possibility.

Wind generation is increasingly leading the power mix in Britain and is seen as a crucial part of Britain’s move towards net zero. The prime minister, Rishi Sunak, is expected to overturn a moratorium on new onshore wind projects with a consultation on the matter due to run until March.

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Canada Renewable Power sees Prairie Provinces surge as Canada Energy Regulator projects rising wind, solar, and hydro capacity in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba, replacing coal, expanding the grid, and lowering emissions through 2023.

Key Points

A CER outlook on Canada's grid: Prairie wind, solar, and hydro growth replacing coal and cutting emissions by 2023.

✅ Prairie wind, solar capacity surge by 2023

✅ Alberta, Saskatchewan shift from coal to renewables, gas

✅ Manitoba strengthens hydro leadership, low-carbon grid

Canada's Prairie Provinces will lead the country's growth in renewable energy capacity over the next three years, says a new report by the Canada Energy Regulator (CER).

The online report, titled Canada's Renewable Power, says decreased reliance on coal and substantial increases in wind and solar capacity will increase the amount of renewable energy added to the grid in Alberta and Saskatchewan. Meanwhile, Manitoba will strengthen its position as a prominent hydro producer in Canada. The pace of overall renewable energy growth is expected to slow at the national level between 2021 and 2023, in part due to lagging solar demand in some markets, but with strong growth in provinces with a large reliance on fossil fuel generation.

The report explores electricity generation in Canada and provides a short-term outlook for renewable electricity capacity in each province and territory to 2023. It also features a series of interactive visuals that allow for comparison between regions and highlights the diversity of electricity sources across Canada.

Electricity generation from renewable sources is expected to continue increasing as demand for electricity grows and the country continues its transition to a lower-carbon economy. Canada will see gradual declines in overall carbon emissions from electricity generation largely due to Saskatchewan, Alberta, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick replacing coal with renewables and natural gas. The pace of growth beyond 2023 in renewable power will depend on technological developments; consumer preferences; and government policies and programs.

Canada is a world leader in renewable power, generating almost two-thirds of its electricity from renewables with hydro as the dominant source, and the country ranks in the top 10 for hydropower jobs worldwide. Canada also has one of the world's lowest carbon intensities for electricity.

The CER produces neutral and fact-based energy analysis to inform the energy conversation in Canada. This report is part of a portfolio of publications on energy supply, demand and infrastructure that the CER publishes regularly as part of its ongoing market monitoring.

Report highlights

• Wind capacity in Saskatchewan is projected to triple and nearly double in Alberta between 2020 and 2023 as wind power becomes more competitive in the market. Significant solar capacity growth is also projected, with Alberta adding 1,200 MW by 2023, as Canada approaches a 5 GW solar milestone by that time.
• In Alberta, the share of renewables in the capacity mix is expected to increase from 16% in 2017 to 26% by 2023, with a renewable energy surge supporting thousands of jobs. Similarly, Saskatchewan's renewable share of capacity is expected to increase from 25% in 2018 to 33% in 2023.
• Renewable capacity growth slows most notably in Ontario, where policy changes have scaled back growth projections. Between 2010 and 2017, renewable capacity grew 6.8% per year. Between 2018 and 2023, growth in Ontario slows to 0.4% per year as capacity grows by 466 MW over this period.
• New large-scale hydro, wind, and solar projects will push the share of renewables in Canada's electricity mix from 67% of installed capacity in 2017 to 71% in 2023.
• Hydro is the dominant source of electricity in Canada accounting for 55% of total installed capacity and 59% of generation, though Alberta's limited hydro stands as a notable exception, with B.C., Manitoba, Quebec, Newfoundland and Labrador, and Yukon deriving more than 90% of their power from hydro.
• The jurisdictions with the highest percentage of non-hydro renewable electricity generation are PEI (100%), Nova Scotia (15.8%), and Ontario (10.5%).
• In 2010, 62.8% of Canada's total electricity generation (364 681 GW‧h) was from renewable sources. By 2018, 66.2% (425 722 GW‧h) was from renewable sources and projected to be 71.0% by 2023.

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