Despite obstacles, optimism remains for “cow power”

By California Farm Bureau Federation


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Talk to any California dairy farmer who has ever ventured into "cow power" and he will likely have war stories and battle scars to share about the difficult endeavor.

The idea itself was simple: Trap the gas from cow manure, thereby cutting greenhouse gas emissions, and turn it into usable energy. Over the years a number of dairies throughout the state have installed methane digesters, only to face a barrage of regulatory obstacles bringing their projects online and keeping them online.

Despite these headaches, dairy farmers have not given up on cow power, even as they struggle through one of their darkest economic periods in recent history.

David Albers, a third-generation dairy farmer and environmental attorney, still has his bets on biomethane. His 2,600-cow dairy in Fresno County is currently the first and only one in the state to deliver pipeline-quality, renewable natural gas to Pacific Gas & Electric Co.

The direct-pipeline approach is different from what most other dairies in the state have done with methane digesters, which is to produce electricity to run their individual operations.

Engines used to run generators that convert biogas to electricity often don't pass muster with air districts. By piping the gas directly to PG&E, Albers avoids this potential regulatory pitfall.

"With the air district, we're really the favorite approach because we are only reducing emissions," he said. "There are no negative by-products, no new emissions of any kind."

Until recent legislative changes, dairies had no way of selling any excess power they were producing back to the grid, as utilities were not required to pay for it. Without compensation and a marketing outlet, Albers said, digester projects tend to be economically infeasible because they are costly to build and often produce way more power than a dairy needs.

A new state law requiring utilities to buy 20 percent of their power from renewable sources by 2010 has helped to open some doors, he acknowledged.

"All of a sudden, PG&E was in the hunt for that renewable energy," he said. "Here's a great example of where government mandating something can really bring about positive change."

Albers is not alone in his optimism. At a recent National Biomethane Summit in Sacramento, the well-attended event may be an indication that there is still plenty of interest and movement in the biomethane arena.

Government mandates and other regulatory policies aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions have thrown a new spotlight on biomethane. Now with climate change legislation being proposed, there is also increased attention on how biomethane could be a part of the solution.

The conference highlighted the potential for widespread use of biomethane — to power cities as well as to fuel vehicles. In addition to dairy manure, organic waste from landfills, farms and food processing plants also can be used to generate gas.

To achieve economies of scale, Albers wants to link other neighboring dairies to his system and bring more gas together. His Bakersfield-based company, BioEnergy Solutions, would build the digesters, lay all the pipes and acquire the necessary permits. Participating dairies would receive a portion of the revenue from the sale of the gas, as well as additional income from the sale of emissions credits.

Albers signed a long-term contract with PG&E three years ago to supply natural gas for an undisclosed premium. His dairy has been piping gas to PG&E since last October — about 140,000 cubic feet per day, which is enough to power 1,200 homes.

His system has enough capacity to take on as many as 25 dairies, and so far a number of them in the Riverdale area have signed up to be a part of his biogas network. He also plans to build other, similar interconnecting systems throughout the San Joaquin Valley.

But the gloomy economy has made investors skittish, and financing has not come though to do the expansion.

"It's hard to get financing," said Allen Dusault, a program director of San Francisco-based Sustainable Conservation. "The banks are very reluctant to lend, and some of the other institutions have pulled back. It would be difficult in the best of times. It's even more difficult in not-so-good times."

Paul Rollin, who runs a 1,600-cow dairy about four miles from Albers, has been interested in methane digesters and electric generation for years, but the economics never worked out and he never pursued it.

When Albers approached him nearly two years ago about joining forces, Rollin agreed, although now he says, "I still have questions in my mind" about whether Albers could bring the project to fruition.

"We've been told that the funding is forthcoming and it will come to pass," said Rollin. "The real challenge is for him to be able to install the improvements and have it be economically viable."

From the PG&E standpoint, Albers' direct pipeline injection has a huge advantage over electrical generation because the utility can store natural gas, said Ken Brennan, a project manager for the power company. But he added that the utility is committed to acquiring all sources of renewable energy.

"We want it all if we can get it," he said.

Michael Marsh, chief executive officer of Western United Dairymen, said 97 percent of the dairies in the state today could employ methane digester technology on their farms if they have the financial incentives and the policy commitment.

And while mandates will certainly help to boost demand for more renewable energy, he said they are not necessarily the answer to getting more methane digesters online.

"The policies — from the regulators, from the legislators and the governor's office — have to jibe with the mandates so that they facilitate rather than provide impediment to the success of these projects," he said. "Once you get the impediments out of the way, the market should take off."

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Investigation reveals power company 'gamed' $100M from Ontario's electricity system

Goreway Power Station Overbilling exposed by Ontario Energy Board shows IESO oversight failures, GCG gaming, and $100M in inappropriate payments at the Brampton natural gas plant, penalized with fines and repayments impacting Ontario ratepayers.

 

Key Points

Goreway exploited IESO GCG flaws, causing about $100M in improper payouts and fines.

✅ OEB probe flagged $89M in ineligible start-up O&M charges

✅ IESO fined Goreway $10M; majority of excess costs recovered

✅ Audit found $200M in overbilling across nine generators

 

Hydro customers shelled out about $100 million in "inappropriate" payments to a natural gas plant that exploited flaws in how Ontario manages its private electricity generators, according to the Ontario Energy Board.

The company operating the Goreway Power Station in Brampton "gamed" the system for at least three years, according to an investigation by the provincial energy regulator. 

The investigation also delivers stinging criticism of the provincial government's Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO), slamming it for a lack of oversight. The probe by the Ontario Energy Board's market surveillance panel was completed nearly a year ago, but was only made public in November because it was buried on its website without a news release. CBC News is the first media outlet to report on the investigation.  

The excess payments to Goreway Power Station included:

  • $89 million in ineligible expenses billed as the costs of firing up power production. 
  • $5.6 million paid in three months from a flaw in how IESO calculated top-ups for the company committing to generate power a day in advance.   
  • Of $11.2 million paid to compensate the company for IESO ordering it to start or stop generating power, the investigation concluded "a substantial portion ... was the result of gaming."  

Most privately-owned natural gas-fired plants in the province do not generate electricity constantly, but start and stop production in response to fluctuating market demand, even as the energy minister has requested an halt to natural gas generation across the grid.  IESO pays them a premium for the costs of firing up production, through what it calls "generation cost guarantee" programs. 

But the investigation found IESO did little checking into the details of Goreway Power Station's billings. 

Goreway Power Station, located near Highway 407 in Brampton, Ont., is an 875 megawatt natural gas power plant. (Goreway)

"Conservatively, at least $89 million of Goreway's submissions were clearly ineligible by any reasonable measure," concludes the report.

"Goreway routinely submitted what were obviously inappropriate expenses to be reimbursed by the IESO, and ultimately borne by Ontario ratepayers,"

The investigation panel found an "extraordinary pattern" to these billings by Goreway Power Station, suggesting the IESO should have caught on sooner. The company submitted more than $100 million in start-up operating and maintenance costs during the three-year period investigated — more than all other gas-fired generators in the province combined. The company's costs per start-up were more than double the next most expensive power generator. 

"Goreway repeatedly exploited defects in the GCG (generation cost guarantee) program, and in doing so received at least $89 million in gamed GCG payments." 

Company fined $10M

The investigation covered a three-year period from when Goreway Power Station began generating power in June 2009. Investigators said that delays in releasing documents slowed down their probe, and they only obtained all the records they needed in April 2016.

The investigating panel does not have the power to impose penalties on companies it found broke the rules. 

The IESO fined Goreway Power Station $10 million. The company has also repaid IESO "a substantial portion" of the excess payments it received during its first six years of operating, but the exact figure is blacked out in the investigation report that was made public. 

The control room from which the provincial government's Independent Electricity System Operator manages Ontario's power supply. The agency is also responsible for managing contracts with private power producers.(IESO)

"Goreway does not agree with many of the draft report's findings and conclusions, including any suggestion that Goreway engaged in gaming or that it deliberately misled the IESO," writes lawyer George Vegh on behalf of the company in a response to the investigation report, dated Aug. 1.

"Goreway has implemented initiatives designed to ensure that compliance is a chief operating principle."     

The power station, located near Highway 407 in Brampton, is a joint venture between Toyota Tsusho Corp. and JERA Co. Inc. During the period under scrutiny, the project was run by Toyota Tsusho and Chubu Electric Power Inc., both headquartered in Japan. 

Investigators fear 'same situation' exists today

The report blames the provincially-controlled IESO for creating a system with defects that allowed the over-billing. 

"Goreway was able to — and repeatedly did — exploit these defects," says the investigation report. It goes on to explain the flaws "have created opportunities for exploitation, to the serious financial disadvantage of Ontario's ratepayers," even as greening Ontario's grid could entail massive costs.

The investigation suggests IESO hasn't made adequate changes to ensure it won't happen again, at a time when an analysis of a dirtier grid is raising concerns.   

"Goreway stands as a clear example of how generators are able to exploit the generation costs guarantee regime," says the report.

"The Panel is concerned that the same situation remains in place today." 

PC energy critic Todd Smith raised CBC News' report on the Goreway Power Station in Tuesday's question period. (Ontario Legislature)

After CBC News broke the story Tuesday, the provincial government was forced to respond in question period, amid a broader push for new gas plants to boost electricity production. 

"Here we have yet another gas plant scandal in Peel region that's costing electricity customers over $100 million," said PC energy critic Todd Smith. He slammed "the incompetence of a government that once again failed to look out for electricity customers." 

Economic Development Minister Brad Duguid said: "There is no excuse for any company in this province to ever game the system."

Nine companies overbilled $200M: audit 

The IESO found out about the overbilling "some time ago," said Duguid.

"They fully investigated, they've recovered most of the cost, they delivered a $10 million fine — the biggest fine on record."

The program that Goreway exploited became the subject of an audit that the IESO launched in 2011. The agency uncovered $200 million in ineligible billings by nine power producers, wrote the IESO vice president for policy Terry Young in an email to CBC News.

The IESO has recovered up to 85 per cent of those ineligible costs, Young noted.

Reforms to the design of the the program have removed the potential for overpayments and made it more efficient, he said, even as Ontario weighs embracing clean power more broadly. Last year, its total annual costs dropped to $23 million, down from $61 million in 2014.

 

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Quebec and other provinces heading toward electricity shortage: report

Canada Electricity Shortage threatens renewable energy transition as EV adoption and building decarbonization surge; Hydro-Quebec exports, wind power expansion, demand response, and smart grid resilience shape investment and capacity planning.

 

Key Points

A looming supply gap in central and eastern provinces driven by EVs, heating decarbonization, exports, and limited new hydro.

✅ Hydro-Quebec capacity pressured by exports and new loads

✅ Wind power prioritized; new mega-dams deemed unworkable

✅ Smart meters boost flexibility but raise cyber risk

 

Quebec and other provinces in central and eastern Canada are heading toward a significant shortage of electricity to respond to the various needs of a transition to renewable energy, and Ontario's energy storage push underscores how supply is tightening across the region.

This is according to Polytechnique Montréal’s Institut de l’énergie Trottier, which published a report titled A Strategic Perspective on Electricity in Central and Eastern Canada last week.

The white paper says that at the current rate, most provinces will be incapable of meeting the electricity needs created by the increase in the number of electric vehicles, including the federal 2035 EV sales mandate that will amplify demand, and the decarbonization of building heating by 2030. “The situation worsens if we consider carbon neutrality objectives of the federal government and some provinces for 2050,” the institute says.

The researchers called on public utilities to immediately review their investment plans for the coming years in light of examples such as B.C.'s power supply challenges that accompany rapid green ambitions.

In a news conference Wednesday, Premier François Legault said the province could indeed be short on electricity as debates over Quebec's EV push continue. “We’re open to exploiting green hydrogen, if the price is good and also based on the electrical capacity we have. Because currently, we predict that in the coming years we’re going to lack electricity, so we must be prudent.”

Quebec is in a better position than other provinces because it is the largest hydroelectricity producer in the country. But that energy source also attracts new clients that have contributed to increased demand over the coming years, including data centres, cryptocurrency miners and greenhouses.

Report co-author Normand Mousseau said that while Hydro-Québec largely has the capacity to meet demand from electric vehicles, even amid EV shortages and wait times for buyers, heating and manufacturers, export contracts to the United States “risk reducing its leeway.”

Hydro-Québec will therefore have to find new sources of electricity, and Mousseau said the answer isn’t new dams.

“The reservoirs give an immense flexibility to the network, but we don’t have the capacity today to flood territories like we have done in the past,” said Mousseau, the institute’s scientific director. “From an environmental viewpoint and a social accessibility one, it’s unworkable.”

The solution would be more wind turbines, he said, adding construction could happen at “very competitive rates” and if there’s a surplus, “we can sell it without issue because other provinces are in an even worse situation than ours,” a reality echoed by eco groups in Northern Ontario sustainability discussions focused on the grid’s future.

The researchers propose solutions based on six themes: regulations, pricing, demand management, data, support for implementation and resilience.

In the resilience category, the report notes that innovative technology like smart meters makes the network more flexible, with pilots such as EV-to-grid integration in Nova Scotia illustrating emerging options, but also increases the risk of cyberattacks. The more extreme weather caused by climate change also increases the risks of damage to infrastructure while at the same time increasing demand.

 

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The German economy used to be the envy of the world. What happened?

Germany's Economic Downturn reflects an energy crisis, deindustrialization risks, export weakness, and manufacturing stress, amid Russia gas loss, IMF and EU recession forecasts, and debates over electricity price caps and green transition.

 

Key Points

An economic contraction from energy price shocks, export weakness, and bottlenecks in manufacturing and digitization.

✅ Energy shock after loss of cheap Russian gas

✅ Exports slump amid China slowdown and weak demand

✅ Policy gridlock on power price cap and permits

 

Germany went from envy of the world to the worst-performing major developed economy. What happened?

For most of this century, Germany racked up one economic success after another, dominating global markets for high-end products like luxury cars and industrial machinery, selling so much to the rest of the world that half the economy ran on exports.

Jobs were plentiful, the government’s financial coffers grew as other European countries drowned in debt, and books were written about what other countries could learn from Germany.

No longer. Now, Germany is the world’s worst-performing major developed economy, with both the International Monetary Fund and European Union expecting it to shrink this year.

It follows Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the loss of Moscow’s cheap Russian gas that underpinned industry — an unprecedented shock to Germany’s energy-intensive industries, long the manufacturing powerhouse of Europe.

The sudden underperformance by Europe’s largest economy has set off a wave of criticism, handwringing and debate about the way forward.

Germany risks “deindustrialization” as high energy costs and government inaction on other chronic problems threaten to send new factories and high-paying jobs elsewhere, said Christian Kullmann, CEO of major German chemical company Evonik Industries AG.

From his 21st-floor office in the west German town of Essen, Kullmann points out the symbols of earlier success across the historic Ruhr Valley industrial region: smokestacks from metal plants, giant heaps of waste from now-shuttered coal mines, a massive BP oil refinery and Evonik’s sprawling chemical production facility.

These days, the former mining region, where coal dust once blackened hanging laundry, is a symbol of the energy transition, as the power sector’s balancing act continues with wind turbines and green space.

The loss of cheap Russian natural gas needed to power factories “painfully damaged the business model of the German economy,” Kullmann told The Associated Press. “We’re in a situation where we’re being strongly affected — damaged — by external factors.”

After Russia cut off most of its gas to the European Union, spurring an energy crisis in the 27-nation bloc that had sourced 40% of the fuel from Moscow, the German government asked Evonik to turn to coal by keeping its 1960s coal-fired power plant running a few months longer.

The company is shifting away from the plant — whose 40-story smokestack fuels production of plastics and other goods — to two gas-fired generators that can later run on hydrogen amid plans to become carbon neutral by 2030 and following the nuclear phase-out of recent years.

One hotly debated solution: a government-funded cap on industrial electricity prices to get the economy through the renewable energy transition, amid an energy crisis that even saw a temporary nuclear extension to stabilize supply.

The proposal from Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck of the Greens Party has faced resistance from Chancellor Olaf Scholz, a Social Democrat, and pro-business coalition partner the Free Democrats. Environmentalists say it would only prolong reliance on fossil fuels, while others advocate a nuclear option to meet climate goals.

Kullmann is for it: “It was mistaken political decisions that primarily developed and influenced these high energy costs. And it can’t now be that German industry, German workers should be stuck with the bill.”

The price of gas is roughly double what it was in 2021, with a senior official arguing nuclear would do little to solve that gas issue, hurting companies that need it to keep glass or metal red-hot and molten 24 hours a day to make glass, paper and metal coatings used in buildings and cars.

A second blow came as key trade partner China experiences a slowdown after several decades of strong economic growth.

These outside shocks have exposed cracks in Germany’s foundation that were ignored during years of success, including lagging use of digital technology in government and business and a lengthy process to get badly needed renewable energy projects approved.

 

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Planning for Toronto?s Growing Electricity Needs

Toronto Grid Upgrade expands electricity capacity and reliability with new substations, upgraded transmission lines, and integrated renewable energy, supporting EV growth, sustainability goals, and resilient power for Toronto's growing residential and commercial sectors.

 

Key Points

A joint plan to boost grid capacity, add renewables, and improve reliability for Toronto's rising power demand.

✅ New substations and upgraded transmission lines increase capacity

✅ Integrates solar, wind, and storage for cleaner, reliable power

✅ Supports EV adoption, reduces outages, and future-proofs the grid

 

As Toronto's population and economy continue to expand, the surge in electricity demand in the city is also increasing rapidly. In response, the Ontario government, in partnership with the City of Toronto and various stakeholders, has launched an initiative to enhance the electricity infrastructure to meet future needs.

The Ontario Ministry of Energy and the City of Toronto are focusing on a multi-faceted approach that includes upgrades to existing power systems and the integration of renewable energy sources, as well as updated IoT cybersecurity standards for sector devices. This initiative is critical as Toronto looks towards a sustainable future, with projections indicating significant growth in both residential and commercial sectors.

Energy Minister Todd Smith highlighted the urgency of this project, stating, “With Toronto's growing population and dynamic economy, the need for reliable electricity cannot be overstated. We are committed to ensuring that our power systems are not only capable of meeting today's demands but are also future-proofed against the needs of tomorrow.”

The plan involves substantial investments in grid infrastructure to increase capacity and improve reliability. This includes the construction of new substations and the enhancement of old ones, along with the upgrading of transmission lines and exploration of macrogrids to strengthen reliability. These improvements are designed to reduce the frequency and severity of power outages while accommodating new developments and technologies such as electric vehicles, which are expected to place additional demands on the system.

Additionally, the Ontario government is exploring the potential for renewable energy sources, such as rooftop solar grids and wind, to be integrated into the city’s power grid. This shift towards green energy is part of a broader effort to reduce carbon emissions and promote environmental sustainability.

Toronto Mayor John Tory emphasized the collaborative nature of this initiative, stating, “This is a prime example of how collaboration between different levels of government and the private sector can lead to innovative solutions that benefit everyone. By enhancing our electricity infrastructure, we are not only improving the quality of life for our residents but also supporting Toronto's competitive edge as a global city.”

The project also includes a public engagement component, where citizens are encouraged to provide input on the planning and implementation phases. This participatory approach ensures that the solutions developed are in alignment with the needs and expectations of Toronto's diverse communities.

Experts agree that the timing of these upgrades is critical. As urban populations grow, the strain on infrastructure, especially in a powerhouse like Toronto, can lead to significant challenges. Proactive measures, such as those being implemented by Ontario and Toronto, and mirrored by British Columbia's clean energy shift underway on the west coast, are essential in avoiding potential crises and ensuring economic stability.

The success of this initiative could serve as a model for other cities facing similar challenges, highlighting the importance of forward-thinking and cooperation in urban planning and energy management. As Toronto moves forward with these ambitious plans, the eyes of the world, particularly other urban centers, will be watching and learning how to similarly tackle the dual challenges of growth and sustainability, with recent examples like London's newest electricity tunnel demonstrating large-scale grid upgrades.

This strategic approach to managing Toronto's electricity needs reflects a comprehensive understanding of the complexities involved in urban energy systems and a commitment to ensuring a resilient and sustainable future that aligns with Canada's net-zero grid by 2050 goals at the national level for all residents.

 

 

 

 

 

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Gulf Power to Provide One-Time Bill Decrease of 40%

Gulf Power 40% One-Time Bill Decrease approved by the Florida Public Service Commission delivers a May fuel credit and COVID-19 relief, cutting residential and business costs across rate classes while supporting budgeting and energy savings.

 

Key Points

PSC-approved fuel credit cutting May electric bills about 40% for homes and 40-55% for businesses as COVID-19 relief.

✅ One-time May fuel credit on customer bills

✅ Residential cut ~40%; business savings 40-55% by rate class

✅ Online tools show daily usage and projected bill

 

Gulf Power announced that the Florida Public Service Commission unanimously approved its request to issue a one-time decrease of approximately 40% for the typical residential customer bill beginning May 1, similar to recent Georgia Power bill reductions seen elsewhere. Business customers will also see a significant one-time decrease of approximately 40-55% in May, depending on usage and rate class.

"We are pleased that the Florida Public Service Commission has approved our request to deliver this savings to our customers when they need it most. We felt that this was the right thing to do, especially during times like these," said Gulf Power President Marlene Santos. "Our customers and communities now more than ever count on the reliable and affordable energy we deliver, and we are pleased that May bills will reflect this additional, significant savings for our customers."

In Florida, fuel savings are typically refunded to customers over the remainder of the year to provide level, predictable bills. However, given the emergent and significant financial challenges facing many customers due to COVID-19, Gulf Power instead sought approval to give customers the total annual savings in their May bill, similar to a lump-sum electricity credit approach, which will be reflected as a line-item fuel credit on their May statement.

New tools to help save energy and money

Many customers are working from home and, in general, staying at home more. More time and extra people in the home will likely increase power usage, which could lead to higher monthly bills.

Gulf Power recently added new tools to our customers' online account portal to help them better understand and manage their energy usage, including their monthly projected bill amount and a breakdown of daily energy usage, which is available for most residential customers*. Customers can now see their previous day's energy usage using their online account portal to help them more easily understand how their previous day's activities impacted energy usage, allowing them to quickly make adjustments to keep bills low. The new projected bill feature is a valuable tool to assist customers in budgeting for their next month's energy bill.

Additional energy-saving tips that can be implemented with no additional cost or equipment are also available. As always, Gulf Power's free online Energy Checkup tool will provide customers with a customized report based on their home's actual energy use.

Helping customers pay their bills

Gulf Power has a long history of working with its customers during difficult times, including periods of pandemic-related energy insecurity, and will continue to do so. Gulf Power encourages customers that are having difficulty paying their energy bill to visit GulfPower.com/help to view available resources that can provide assistance to qualifying customers.

Customers are encouraged to pay their electric bill balance each month to avoid building up a large balance, which they will continue to bear responsibility for. Gulf Power will work with the customer's personal situation and assist with a solution, similar to how utilities in Texas have waived fees during this period, to help customers fulfill their personal responsibility for their Gulf Power balance.

Those who can afford or want to help others who may need assistance with their energy bill can make a donation to Project SHARE in your online customer portal. Project SHARE donations are added to a customer's monthly bill and all contributions are distributed to local offices of The Salvation Army. Customers in need of utility bill assistance can apply for Project SHARE assistance at The Salvation Army office in their county.

Supporting our communities

The Gulf Power Foundation gave $500,000 to United Way organizations across Northwest Florida to assist those most vulnerable during this time, which has helped support food, housing and other essential needs throughout the region. In addition, the Foundation recently made a $10,000 donation to Feeding the Gulf Coast and launched an employee donation campaign to provide food for our neighbors in need, while Entergy emergency relief fund offers a similar example of industry support. In total, Gulf Power and its fellow NextEra Energy companies and employees have so far committed more than $4 million in COVID-19 emergency assistance funds that will be distributed directly to those in need and to partner organizations working on the frontlines of the crisis to provide critical support to the most vulnerable members of the community.

Lower fuel costs are enabling Gulf Power to issue a one-time decrease of approximately 40% for the typical residential customer bill in May, even as FPL faces a hurricane surcharge controversy in the state
- a significant savings amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic

Gulf Power will deliver savings to customers through a one-time bill decrease, rather than the standard practice of spreading out savings over the remainder of the year, even as FPL proposes multi-year rate hikes elsewhere

 

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Oil crash only a foretaste of what awaits energy industry

Oil and Gas Profitability Decline reflects shale-driven oversupply, OPEC-Russia dynamics, LNG exports, renewables growth, and weak demand, signaling compressed margins for producers, stressed petrodollar budgets, and shifting energy markets post-Covid.

 

Key Points

A sustained squeeze on hydrocarbon margins from agile shale supply, weaker OPEC leverage, and expanding renewables.

✅ Shale responsiveness caps prices and erodes industry rents

✅ OPEC-Russia cuts face limited impact versus US supply

✅ Renewables and EVs slow long-term oil and gas demand

 

The oil-price crash of March 2020 will probably not last long. As in 2014, when the oil price dropped below $50 from $110 in a few weeks, this one will trigger a temporary collapse of the US shale industry. Unless the coronavirus outbreak causes Armageddon, cheap oil will also support policymakers’ efforts to help the global economy.

But there will be at least one important and lasting difference this time round — and it has major market and geopolitical implications.

The oil price crash is a foretaste of where the whole energy sector was going anyway — and that is down.

It may not look that way at first. Saudi Arabia will soon realise, as it did in 2015, that its lethal decision to pump more oil is not only killing US shale but its public finances as well. Riyadh will soon knock on Moscow’s door again. Once American shale supplies collapse, Russia will resume co-operation with Saudi Arabia.

With the world economy recovering from the Covid-19 crisis by then, and with electricity demand during COVID-19 shifting, moderate supply cuts by both countries will accelerate oil market recovery. In time, US shale producers will return too.

Yet this inevitable bounceback should not distract from two fundamental factors that were already remaking oil and gas markets. First, the shale revolution has fundamentally eroded industry profitability. Second, the renewables’ revolution will continue to depress growth in demand.

The combined result has put the profitability of the entire global hydrocarbon industry under pressure. That means fewer petrodollars to support oil-producing countries’ national budgets, including Canada's oil sector exposures. It also means less profitable oil companies, which traditionally make up a large segment of stock markets, an important component of so many western pension funds.

Start with the first factor to see why this is so. Historically, the geological advantages that made oil from countries such as Saudi Arabia so cheap to produce were unique. Because oil and gas were produced at costs far below the market price, the excess profits, or “rent”, enjoyed by the industry were very large.

Furthermore, collusion among low-cost producers has been a winning strategy. The loss of market share through output cuts was more than compensated by immediately higher prices. It was the raison d’être of Opec.

The US shale revolution changed all this, exposing the limits of U.S. energy dominance narratives. A large oil-producing region emerged with a remarkable ability to respond quickly to price changes and shrink its costs over time. Cutting back cheap Opec oil now only increases US supplies, with little effect on world prices.

That is why Russia refused to cut production this month. Even if its cuts did boost world prices — doubtful given the coronavirus outbreak’s huge shock to demand — that would slow the shrinkage of US shale that Moscow wants.

Shale has affected the natural gas industry even more. Exports of US liquefied natural gas now put an effective ceiling on global prices, and debates over a clean electricity push have intensified when gas prices spike.

On top of all this, there is also the renewables’ revolution, though a green revolution has not been guaranteed in the near term. Around the world, wind and solar have become ever-cheaper options to generate electricity. Storage costs have also dropped and network management improved. Even in the US, renewables are displacing coal and gas. Electrification of vehicle fleets will damp demand further, as U.S. electricity, gas, and EVs face evolving pressures.

Eliminating fossil fuel consumption completely would require sustained and costly government intervention, and reliability challenges such as coal and nuclear disruptions add to the complexity. That is far from certain. Meanwhile, though, market forces are depressing the sector’s usual profitability.

The end of oil and gas is not immediately around the corner. Still, the end of hydrocarbons as a lucrative industry is a distinct possibility. We are seeing that in dramatic form in the current oil price crash. But this collapse is merely a message from the future.

 

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