UK carbon-capture market may generate $6.6 billion yearly

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The financial benefits of implementing carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology to old and new coal-based power plants could be worth as much as £4 billion ($6.6 billion) a year to the UK by 2030.

The news comes from a new independent report launched alongside the publication of the UK government's consultation document "A Framework for the Development of Clean Coal." The AEA Group report, "Future Value of Coal Carbon Abatement Technologies to UK Industry," concludes that the economic benefits of implementing CCS technology will jump from £1 billion to £2 billion in 2010, and to £2 billion to £4 billion by 2030.

This amounts to £20 billion-£40 billion in total revenue in the 20-year period, as well as the creation of up to 60,000 jobs. These will be split between those working in existing carbon abatement technology (CAT) businesses designing and manufacturing boiler and steam turbines and those operating in the CCS service sector, which will design and manufacture capture, transport and storage facilities.

The report also identified other markets for CAT and associated services but claimed that they will be much smaller, totaling perhaps £2 billion between 2010 and 2030. The biggest of those opportunities is the anticipated market for biomass co-firing equipment in the period to 2015.

The government announced in April that no new coal-fired plants will be built unless they include working CCS technology. Coal-generated power in the UK amounts to 29 gigawatts (GW) a year, which is 37% of the UK's electricity capacity. That will fall off by nearly one third to 21 GW in the coming years as the UK closes older plants in line with European Union emissions guidelines.

Speaking at the launch of the government's latest CCS consultation paper, Energy and Climate Change Secretary Ed Miliband said, "The conditions we're proposing for new coal are the most environmentally ambitious of any country in the world, requiring the demonstration of CCS on a substantial proportion of any new power station and the 100% retrofit of CCS when it's proven. At the same time, by providing funding for demonstrations, we can maintain coal as part of our energy mix, supporting diversity and therefore security of supply."

Miliband added: "By acting early, jobs will also be created as Britain develops the expertise in what could be a major new industry, with CCS projects offering the potential to form the hubs for clusters of low-carbon industries. By driving the development of CCS in this country, we are also, as a country, playing an essential role in the battle against climate change."

The Carbon Capture and Storage Association (CCSA), which represents the key power generation companies and businesses promoting CCS solutions, welcomed the consultation document but warned that the government has to keep up the momentum.

Jeff Chapman, Chief Executive of the CCSA said, "The publication of this consultation is a welcome step on the road to developing the first generation of CCS plants in the UK.

"However, this should be a swift, sharp and focused consultation aimed at developing a robust funding framework for CCS and enabling the infrastructure needed to transport CO2 for storage.

"We cannot afford to drop the ball at this point. We are close to getting an appropriate framework to develop CCS at a commercial scale. Industry stands ready to deliver on CCS and as 2009 is a critical year in terms of tackling climate change and building green jobs, the Government needs to move quickly to ensure CCS can fulfill its climate-change potential as well as delivering prosperity and employment."

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What 2018 Grid Edge Trends Reveal About 2019

2019 Grid Edge Trends highlight evolving demand response, DER orchestration, real-time operations, AMI data, and EV charging, as wholesale markets seek flexibility and resiliency amid tighter reserve margins and fossil baseload retirements.

 

Key Points

Shifts toward DER-enabled demand response and real-time, behind-the-meter flexibility.

✅ Real-time DER dispatch enhances reliability during tight reserves

✅ AMI and ICT improve forecasting, monitoring, and control of resources

✅ Demand response shifts toward aggregated behind-the-meter orchestration

 

Which grid edge trends will continue into 2019 as the digital grid matures and what kind of disruption is on the horizon in the coming year?

From advanced metering infrastructure endpoints to electric-vehicle chargers, grid edge venture capital investments to demand response events, hundreds of data points go into tracking new trends at the edge of the grid amid ongoing grid modernization discussions across utilities.

Trends across these variables tell a story of transition, but perhaps not yet transformation. Customers hold more power than ever before in 2019, with utilities and vendors innovating to take advantage of new opportunities behind the meter. Meanwhile, external factors can always throw things off-course, including the data center boom that is posing new power challenges, and reliability is top of mind in light of last year's extreme weather events. What does the 2018 data say about 2019?

For one thing, demand response evolved, enabled by new information and communications technology. Last year, wholesale market operators increasingly sought to leverage the dispatch of distributed energy resource flexibility in close to real time. Three independent system operators and regional transmission organizations called on demand response five times in total for relief in the summer of 2018, including the NYISO.

The demand response events called in the last 18 months send a clear message: Grid operators will continue to call events year-round. This story unfolds as reserve margins continue to tighten, fossil baseload generation retirements continue, and system operators are increasingly faced with proving the resiliency and reliability of their systems while efforts to invest in a smarter electricity infrastructure gain momentum across the country.

In 2019, the total amount of flexible demand response capacity for wholesale market participation will remain about the same. However, the way operators and aggregators are using demand response is changing as information and communications technology systems improve and utilities are using AI to adapt to electricity demands, allowing the behavior of resources to be more accurately forecasted, monitored and controlled.

These improvements are allowing customer-sited resources to offer  flexibility services closer to real-time operations and become more reactive to system needs. At the same time, traditional demand response will continue to evolve toward the orchestration of DERs as an aggregate flexible resource to better enable growing levels of renewable energy on the grid.

 

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Pacific Northwest's Renewable Energy Goals Hindered

Pacific Northwest Transmission Bottleneck slows clean energy progress as BPA's aging grid constrains renewable interconnections, delaying wind, solar, and data center growth; decarbonization targets depend on transmission upgrades, new substations, and policy reform.

 

Key Points

An interconnection and capacity shortfall on BPA's aging grid that delays renewables and impedes clean energy goals.

✅ BPA approvals lag: 1 of 469 projects since 2015.

✅ Yakama solar waits for substation upgrades until 2027.

✅ Data centers and decarbonization targets face grid constraints.

 

Oregon and Washington have set ambitious targets to decarbonize their power sectors, aiming for 100% clean electricity in the coming decades. However, a significant obstacle stands in the way: the region's aging and overburdened transmission grid, underscoring why 100% renewables remain elusive even as momentum builds.

The Grid Bottleneck

The BPA operates a transmission system that is nearly a century old in some areas, and its capacity has not expanded sufficiently to accommodate the influx of renewable energy projects, reflecting stalled grid spending in many parts of the U.S., according to recent analyses. Since 2015, 469 large renewable projects have applied to connect to the BPA's grid; however, only one has been approved—a stark contrast to other regions in the country. This bottleneck has left numerous wind and solar projects in limbo, unable to deliver power to the grid.

One notable example is the Yakama Nation's solar project. Despite receiving a $32 million federal grant under the bipartisan infrastructure law as part of a broader grid overhaul for renewables, the tribe faces significant delays. The BPA estimates that it will take until 2027 to complete the necessary upgrades to the transmission system, including a new substation, before the solar array can be connected. This timeline poses a risk of losing federal funding if the project isn't operational by 2031.

Economic and Environmental Implications

The slow pace of grid expansion has broader implications for the region's economy and environmental goals. Data centers and other energy-intensive industries are increasingly drawn to the Pacific Northwest due to its clean energy potential, while interregional projects like the Wyoming-to-California wind link illustrate how transmission access can unlock supply. However, without adequate infrastructure, these industries may seek alternatives elsewhere. Additionally, the inability to integrate renewable energy efficiently hampers efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and combat climate change.

Policy Challenges and Legislative Efforts

Efforts to address the grid limitations through state-level initiatives have faced challenges, even as a federal rule to boost transmission advances nationally. In 2025, both Oregon and Washington considered legislation to establish state bonding authorities aimed at financing transmission upgrades. However, these bills failed to pass, leaving the BPA as the primary entity responsible for grid expansion. The BPA's unique structure—operating as a self-funded federal agency without direct state oversight—has made it difficult for regional leaders to influence its decision-making processes.

Looking Ahead

The Pacific Northwest's renewable energy aspirations hinge on modernizing its transmission infrastructure, aligning with decarbonization strategies that emphasize grid buildout. While the BPA has proposed several projects to enhance grid capacity, the timeline for completion remains uncertain. Without significant investment and policy reforms, the region risks falling behind in the transition to a clean energy future. Stakeholders across Oregon and Washington must collaborate to advocate for necessary changes and ensure that the grid can support the growing demand for renewable energy.

The Pacific Northwest's commitment to clean energy is commendable, but achieving these goals requires overcoming substantial infrastructure challenges, and neighboring jurisdictions such as British Columbia have pursued B.C. regulatory streamlining to accelerate projects. Addressing the limitations of the BPA's transmission system is critical to unlocking the full potential of renewable energy in the region. Only through concerted efforts at the federal, state, and local levels can Oregon and Washington hope to realize their green energy ambitions.

 

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Canada in top 10 for hydropower jobs, but doesn't rank on other renewables

Canada Renewable Energy Jobs rank top 10 in hydropower, says IRENA, but trail in solar PV, wind power, and liquid biofuels; clean tech growth, EV manufacturing, and Canada Infrastructure Bank funding signal broader carbon-neutral opportunities.

 

Key Points

Canada counts 61,130 clean energy roles, top 10 in hydropower, with potential in solar, wind, biofuels, and EV manufacturing.

✅ 61,130 clean energy jobs in Canada per IRENA

✅ Top 10 share in hydropower employment

✅ Growth expected in solar, wind, biofuels, and EVs

 

Canada has made the top 10 list of countries for the number of jobs in hydropower, but didn’t rank in three other key renewable energy technologies, according to new international figures.

Although Canada has only two per cent of the global workforce, it had one of the 10 largest slices of the world’s jobs in hydropower in 2019, says the Abu Dhabi-based International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)

Canada didn’t make IRENA’s other top-10 employment lists, for solar photovoltaic (PV) technology, where solar power lags by international standards, liquid biofuels or wind power, released Sept. 30. Figures from the agency show the whole sector represents 61,130 jobs across Canada, or 0.5 per cent of the world’s 11.5 million jobs in renewables.

The numbers show Canada needs to move faster to minimize the climate crisis, including by joining trade blocs that put tariffs on high-carbon goods, argued the Victoria-based BC Sustainable Energy Association after reviewing IRENA’s report. The Canadian Renewable Energy Association also said it showed the country has untapped job creation potential, even as growth projections were scaled back after Ontario scrapped a clean energy program.

But other clean tech advocates say there’s more to the story. When tallying clean energy jobs, it's worth a broader look, Clean Energy Canada argued, pointing to the recent Ford-Unifor deal that includes a $1.8-billion commitment to produce electric vehicles in Oakville, Ont.

Natural Resources Minister Seamus O'Regan’s office also pointed out the renewables employment figures from IRENA are proportional to global population. “While Canada's share of the global clean energy job market is in line with our population size, we produce almost 2.7 per cent of the world’s total primary renewable energy supply. As only 0.5 per cent of the global population, we punch above our weight,” said O'Regan's press secretary, Ian Cameron.

Canada joined IRENA in January 2019 and the country has been described by the association as an “important market” for renewables over the long term.

On Thursday, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced a new $10-billion “Growth Plan” to be run by the Canada Infrastructure Bank that would include “$2.5 billion for clean power to support renewable generation and storage and to transmit clean electricity between provinces, territories, and regions, including to northern and Indigenous communities.” The infrastructure bank's plan is expected to create 60,000 jobs, the government said, and in Alberta an Alberta renewables surge could power 4,500 jobs as projects scale up.

World ‘building the renewable energy revolution now’

A powerful renewables sector is not just about job creation. It is also imperative if we are to meet global climate objectives, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Renewable energy sources have to make up at least a 63 per cent share of the global electricity market by mid-century to battle the more extreme effects of climate change, it said.

“The IRENA report shows that people all over of the world are building the renewable energy revolution now,” said Tom Hackney, policy adviser for the BC Sustainable Energy Association.

“Many people in Canada are doing so, too. But we need to move faster to minimize climate change. For example, at the level of trade policy, a great idea would be to develop low-carbon trading blocs that put tariffs on goods with high embodied carbon emissions.”

Canadian Renewable Energy Association president and CEO Robert Hornung said the IRENA jobs review highlights “significant job creation potential” in Canada. As governments explore how to stimulate economic recovery from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, said Hornung, it's important to “capitalize on Canada's untapped renewable energy resources.”

In Canada, 82 per cent of the electricity grid is already non-emitting, noted Sarah Petrevan, policy director for Clean Energy Canada.

With the federal government committing to a 90 per cent non-emitting grid by 2030, said Petrevan, more wind and solar deployment can be expected, even though solar demand has lagged in recent years, especially in the Prairies where renewables are needed to help with Canada’s coal-fired power plant phase out.

One example of renewables in the Prairies, where the provinces are poised to lead growth, is the Travers Solar project, which is expected to be constructed in Alberta through 2021, and is being touted as “Canada's largest solar farm.”

But renewables are only “one part of the broader clean energy sector,” said Petrevan. Clean Energy Canada has outlined how Canada could be electric and clean with the right choices, and has calculated clean tech supports around 300,000 jobs, projected to grow to half a million by 2030.

“We’re talking about a transition of our energy system in every sense — not just in the power we produce. So while the IRENA figures provide global context, they reflect only a portion of both our current reality and the opportunity for Canada,” she said.

The organization’s research has shown that manufacturing of electric vehicles would be one of the fastest-growing job creators over the next decade. Putting a punctuation mark on that is a recent $1.8-billion deal with Ford Motor Company of Canada to produce five models of electric vehicles in Oakville, Ont.

China ‘remains the clear leader’ in renewables jobs

With 4.3 million renewable energy jobs in 2019, or 38 per cent of all renewables jobs, China “remains the clear leader in renewable energy employment worldwide,” the IRENA report states. China has the world's largest population and the second-largest GDP.

The country is also by far the world’s largest emitter of carbon pollution, at 28 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions, and has significant fossil fuel interests. Chinese President Xi Jinping called for a “green revolution” last month, and pledged to “achieve carbon neutrality before 2060.”

China holds the largest proportion of jobs in hydropower, with 29 per cent of all jobs, followed by India at 19 per cent, Brazil at 11 per cent and Pakistan at five per cent, said IRENA.

Canada, with 32,359 jobs in the industry, and Turkey and Colombia hold two per cent each of the world’s hydropower jobs, while Myanmar and Russia hold three per cent each and Vietnam has four per cent.

China also dominates the global solar PV workforce, with 59 per cent of all jobs, followed by Japan, the United States, India, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brazil, Germany and the Philippines. There are 4,261 jobs in solar PV in Canada, IRENA calculated, and the country is set to hit a 5 GW solar milestone as capacity expands, out of a global workforce of 3.8 million jobs.

In wind power, China again leads, with 44 per cent of all jobs. Germany, the United States and India come after, with the United Kingdom, Denmark, Mexico, Spain, the Philippines and Brazil following suit. Canada has 6,527 jobs in wind power out of 1.17 million worldwide.

As for liquid biofuels, Brazil leads that industry, with 34 per cent of all jobs. Indonesia, the United States, Colombia, Thailand, Malaysia, China, Poland, Romania and the Philippines fill out the top 10. There are 17,691 jobs in Canada in liquid biofuels.

 

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Sask. Party pledges 10% rebate on SaskPower electricity bills

SaskPower 10% Electricity Rebate promises one-year bill relief for households, farms, businesses, hospitals, schools, and universities in Saskatchewan, boosting affordability amid COVID-19, offsetting rate hikes, and countering carbon tax impacts under Scott Moe's plan.

 

Key Points

One-year 10% SaskPower rebate lowering bills for residents, farms, and institutions, funded by general revenue.

✅ Applies automatically to all customers for 12 months from Dec 2020.

✅ Average savings: $215 residential; $845 farm; broad sector coverage.

✅ Cost $261.6M, paid from the general revenue fund; separate from carbon tax.

 

Saskatchewan Party leader Scott Moe says SaskPower customers can expect a one-year, 10 per cent rebate on electricity if they are elected government.

Moe said the pledge aims to make life more affordable for people, including through lower electricity rates initiatives seen in other provinces. The rate would apply to everyone, including residential customers, farmers, businesses, hospitals, schools and universities.

The plan, which would cost government $261.6 million, expects to save the average residential customer $215 over the course of the year and the average farm customer $845.  

“This is a very equitable way to ensure that we are not only providing that opportunity for those dollars to go back into our economy and foster the economic recovery that we are working towards here, in Saskatchewan, across Canada and around the globe, but it also speaks to the affordability for our Saskatchewan families, reducing the dollars a day off to pay for their for their power bill,” Moe said.

The rebate would be applied automatically to all SaskPower bills for 12 months, starting in December 2020. 

Moe said residential customers who are net metering and generating their own power, such as solar power, would receive a $215 rebate over the 12-month period, which is the equivalent of the average residential rebate.

The $261.6 million in costs would be covered by the government’s general revenue fund.   

The Saskatchewan NDP said the proposed reduction is "a big change in direction from the Sask. Party’s long history of making life more expensive for Saskatchewan families." and recently took aim at a SaskPower rate hike approval as part of that critique.

Trent Wotherspoon, NDP candidate for Regina Rosemont and former finance critic, called the pledge criticized the one year time frame and said Saskatchewan people need long term, reliable affordability, noting that the Ontario-Quebec hydro deal has not reduced hydro bills for consumers. Something, he said, is reflected in the NDP plan.

“We've already brought about announcements that bring about affordability, such as the break on SGI auto insurance that'll happen, year after year after year, affordable childcare which has been already announced and committed to things like a decent minimum wage instead of having the lowest minimum wage in Canada,” Wotherspoon said.

The NDP pointed out SaskPower bills have increased by 57 per cent since 2007 for families with an average household income of $75,000, while Nova Scotia's 14% rate hike was recently approved by its regulator.

It said the average bill for such household was $901 in 2007-08 and is now $1,418 in 2019-20, while in neighbouring provinces Manitoba rate increases of 2.5 per cent annually have also been proposed for three years.

"This is on top of the PST increases that the Sask. Party put on everyday families – costing them more than $700 a year," the NDP said.

Moe took aim at the federal Liberal government’s carbon tax, citing concerns that electricity prices could soar under national policies.

He said if the Saskatchewan government wins its court fight against Ottawa, all SaskPower customers can expect to save an additional $150 million per year, and he questioned the federal 2035 net-zero electricity grid target in that context.

“As it stands right now, the Trudeau government plans to raise the carbon tax from $30 to $40 a tonne on Jan. 1,” Moe said. “Trudeau plans to raise taxes and your SaskPower bill, in the middle of a pandemic.  The Saskatchewan Party will give you a break by cutting your power bill.”

 

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Zero-emission electricity in Canada by 2035 is practical and profitable

Canada 100% Renewable Power by 2035 envisions a decentralized grid built on wind, solar, energy storage, and efficiency, delivering zero-emission, resilient, low-cost electricity while phasing out nuclear and gas to meet net-zero targets.

 

Key Points

Zero-emission, decentralized grid using wind, solar, and storage, plus efficiency, to retire fossil and nuclear by 2035.

✅ Scale wind and solar 18x with storage for reliability.

✅ Phase out nuclear and gas; no CCS or offsets needed.

✅ Modernize grids and codes; boost efficiency, jobs, and affordability.

 

A powerful derecho that left nearly a million people without power in Ontario and Quebec on May 21 was a reminder of the critical importance of electricity in our daily lives.

Canada’s electrical infrastructure could be more resilient to such events, while being carbon-emission free and provide low-cost electricity with a decentralized grid powered by 100 per cent renewable energy, according to a new study from the David Suzuki Foundation (DSF), a vision of an electric, connected and clean future if the country chooses.

This could be accomplished by 2035 by building a lot more solar and wind, despite indications that demand for solar electricity has lagged in Canada, adding energy storage, while increasing the energy efficiency in buildings, and modernizing provincial energy grids. As this happens, nuclear energy and gas power would be phased out. There would also be no need for carbon capture and storage nor carbon offsets, the modeling study concluded.

“Solar and wind are the cheapest sources of electricity generation in history,” said study co-author Stephen Thomas, a mechanical engineer and climate solutions policy analyst at the DSF.

“There are no technical barriers to reaching 100 per cent zero-emission electricity by 2035 nationwide,” Thomas told The Weather Network (TWN). However, there are considerable institutional and political barriers to be overcome, he said.

Other countries face similar barriers and many have found ways to reduce their emissions; for example, the U.S. grid's slow path to 100% renewables illustrates these challenges. There are enormous benefits including improved air quality and health, up to 75,000 new jobs annually, and lower electricity costs. Carbon emissions would be reduced by 200 million tons a year by 2050, just over one quarter of the reductions needed for Canada to meet its overall net zero target, the study stated.

Building a net-zero carbon electricity system by 2035 is a key part of Canada’s 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan. Currently over 80 per cent of the nation’s electricity comes from non-carbon sources including a 15 per cent contribution from nuclear, with solar capacity nearing a 5 GW milestone nationally. How the final 20 per cent will be emission-free is currently under discussion.

The Shifting Power study envisions an 18-fold increase in wind and solar energy, with the Prairie provinces expected to lead growth, along with a big increase in Canada’s electrical generation capacity to bridge the 20 per cent gap as well as replacing existing nuclear power.

The report does not see a future role for nuclear power due to the high costs of refurbishing existing plants, including the challenges with disposal of radioactive wastes and decommissioning plants at their end of life. As for the oft-proposed small modular nuclear reactors, their costs will likely “be much more costly than renewables,” according to the report.

There are no technical barriers to building a bigger, cleaner, and smarter electricity system, agrees Caroline Lee, co-author of the Canadian Climate Institute’s study on net-zero electricity, “The Big Switch” released in May. However, as Lee previously told TWN, there are substantial institutional and political barriers.

In many respects, the Shifting Power study is similar to Lee’s study except it phases out nuclear power, forecasts a reduction in hydro power generation, and does not require any carbon capture and storage, she told TWN. Those are replaced with a lot more wind generation and more storage capacity.

“There are strengths and weaknesses to both approaches. We can do either but need a wide debate on what kind of electricity system we want,” Lee said.

That debate has to happen immediately because there is an enormous amount of work to do. When it comes to energy infrastructure, nearly everything “we put in the ground has to be wind, solar, or storage” to meet the 2035 deadline, she said.

There is no path to net zero by 2050 without a zero-emissions electricity system well before that date. Here are some of the necessary steps the report provided:

Create a range of skills training programs for renewable energy construction and installation as well as building retrofits.

Prioritize energy efficiency and conservation across all sectors through regulations such as building codes.

Ensure communities and individuals are fully informed and can decide if they wish to benefit from hosting energy generation infrastructure.

Create a national energy poverty strategy to ensure affordable access.

Strong and clear federal and provincial rules for utilities that mandate zero-emission electricity by 2035.

For Indigenous communities, make sure ownership opportunities are available along with decision-making power.

Canada should move as fast as possible to 100 per cent renewable energy to gain the benefits of lower energy costs, less pollution, and reduced carbon emissions, says Stanford University engineer and energy expert Mark Jacobson.

“Canada has so many clean, renewable energy resources that it is one of the easier countries [that can] transition away from fossil fuels,” Jacobson told TWN.

For the past decade, Jacobson has been producing studies and technical reports on 100 per cent renewable energy, including a new one for Canada, even as Canada is often seen as a solar power laggard today. The Stanford report, A Solution to Global Warming, Air Pollution, and Energy Insecurity for Canada, says a 100 per cent transition by 2035 timeline is ideal. Where it differs from DSF’s Shifting Power report is that it envisions offshore wind and rooftop solar panels which the latter did not.

“Our report is very conservative. Much more is possible,” agrees Thomas.

“We’re lagging behind. Canadians really want to get going on building solutions and getting the benefits of a zero emissions electricity system.”

 

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Four Facts about Covid and U.S. Electricity Consumption

COVID-19 Impact on U.S. Electricity Consumption shows commercial and industrial demand dropped as residential use rose, with flattened peak loads, weekday-weekend convergence, Texas hourly data, and energy demand as a real-time economic indicator.

 

Key Points

It reduced commercial and industrial demand while raising residential use, shifting peaks and weekday patterns.

✅ Commercial electricity down 12%; industrial down 14% in Q2 2020

✅ Residential use up 10% amid work-from-home and lockdowns

✅ Peaks flattened; weekday-weekend loads converged in Texas

 

This is an important turning point for the United States. We have a long road ahead. But one of the reasons I’m optimistic about Biden-Harris is that we will once again have an administration that believes in science.

To embrace this return to science, I want to write today about a fascinating new working paper by Tufts economist Steve Cicala.

Professor Cicala has been studying the effect of Covid on electricity consumption since back in March, when the Wall Street Journal picked up his work documenting an 18% decrease in electricity consumption in Italy.

The new work, focused on the United States, is particularly compelling because it uses data that allows him to distinguish between residential, commercial, and industrial sectors, against a backdrop of declining U.S. electricity sales over recent years.

Without further ado, here are four facts he uncovers about Covid and U.S. electricity demand during COVID-19 and consumption.

 

Fact #1: Firms Are Using Less
U.S. commercial electricity consumption fell 12% during the second quarter of 2020. U.S. industrial electricity consumption fell 14% over the same period.

This makes sense. The second quarter was by some measures, the worst quarter for the U.S. economy in over 145 years!

Economic activity shrank. Schools closed. Offices closed. Factories closed. Restaurants closed. Malls closed. Even health care offices closed as patients delayed going to the dentist and other routine care. All this means less heating and cooling, less lighting, less refrigeration, less power for computers and other office equipment, less everything.

The decrease in the industrial sector is a little more surprising. My impression had been that the industrial sector had not fallen as far as commercial, but amid broader disruptions in coal and nuclear power that strained parts of the energy economy, the patterns for both sectors are quite similar with the decline peaking in May and then partially rebounding by July. The paper also shows that areas with higher unemployment rates experienced larger declines in both sectors.

 

Fact #2: Households Are Using More
While firms are using less, households are using more. U.S. residential electricity consumption increased 10% during the second quarter of 2020. Consumption surged during March, April, and May, a reflection of the lockdown lifestyle many adopted, and then leveled off in June and July – with much less of the rebound observed on the commercial/industrial side.

This pattern makes sense, too. In Professor Cicala’s words, “people are spending an inordinate amount of time at home”. Many of us switched over to working from home almost immediately, and haven’t looked back. This means more air conditioning, more running the dishwasher, more CNN (especially last week), more Zoom, and so on.

The paper also examines the correlates of the decline. Areas in the U.S. where more people can work from home experienced larger increases. Unemployment rates, however, are almost completely uncorrelated with the increase.

 

Fact #3: Firms are Less Peaky
The paper next turns to a novel dataset from Texas, where Texas grid reliability is under active discussion, that makes it possible to measure hourly electricity consumption by sector.

As the figure above illustrates, the biggest declines in commercial/industrial electricity consumption have occurred Monday through Friday between 9AM and 5PM.

The dashed line shows the pattern during 2019. Notice the large spikes in electricity consumption during business hours. The solid line shows the pattern during 2020. Much smaller spikes during business hours.

 

Fact #4: Everyday is Like Sunday
Finally, we have what I would like to nominate as the “Energy Figure of the Year”.

Again, start with the pattern for 2019, reflected by the dashed line. Prior to Covid, Texas households used a lot more electricity on Saturdays and Sundays.

Then along comes Covid, and turned every day into the weekend. Residential electricity consumption in Texas during business hours Monday-Friday is up 16%(!).

In the pattern for 2020, it isn’t easy to distinguish weekends from weekdays. If you feel like weekdays and weekends are becoming a big blur – you are not alone.

 

Conclusion
Researchers are increasingly thinking about electricity consumption as a real-time indicator of economic activity, even as flat electricity demand complicates utility planning and investment. This is an intriguing idea, but Professor Cicala’s new paper shows that it is important to look sector-by-sector.

While commercial and industrial consumption indeed seem to measure the strength of an economy, residential consumption has been sharply countercylical – increasing exactly when people are not at work and not at school.

These large changes in behavior are specific to the pandemic. Still, with the increased blurring of home and non-home activities we may look back on 2020 as a key turning point in how we think about these three sectors of the economy.

More broadly, Professor Cicala’s paper highlights the value of social science research. We need facts, data, and yes, science, if we are to understand the economy and craft effective policies on energy insecurity and shut-offs as well.

 

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