Senator delivers seven steps at ORNL

U.S. coal-fired generation 2021 rose as higher natural gas prices, stable coal costs, and a recovering power sector shifted the generation mix; capacity factors rebounded despite low coal stocks and ongoing plant retirements.

Key Points

Coal output rose 22% on high gas prices and higher capacity factors; a 5% decline is expected in 2022.

✅ Natural gas delivered cost averaged $4.93/MMBtu, more than double 2020

✅ Coal capacity factor rose to ~51% from 40% in 2020

✅ 2022 coal generation forecast to fall about 5%

We expect 22% more U.S. coal-fired generation in 2021 than in 2020, according to our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). The U.S. electric power sector has been generating more electricity from coal-fired power plants this year as a result of significantly higher natural gas prices and relatively stable coal prices, even as non-fossil sources reached 40% of total generation. This year, 2021, will yield the first year-over-year increase in coal generation in the United States since 2014, highlighted by a January power generation jump earlier in the year.

Coal and natural gas have been the two largest sources of electricity generation in the United States. In many areas of the country, these two fuels compete to supply electricity based on their relative costs and sensitivity to policies and gas prices as well. U.S. natural gas prices have been more volatile than coal prices, so the cost of natural gas often determines the relative share of generation provided by natural gas and coal.

Because natural gas-fired power plants convert fuel to electricity more efficiently than coal-fired plants, record natural gas generation has at times underscored that advantage, and natural gas-fired generation can have an economic advantage even if natural gas prices are slightly higher than coal prices. Between 2015 and 2020, the cost of natural gas delivered to electric generators remained relatively low and stable. This year, however, natural gas prices have been much higher than in recent years. The year-to-date delivered cost of natural gas to U.S. power plants has averaged $4.93 per million British thermal units (Btu), more than double last year’s price.

The overall decline in electricity demand in 2020 and record-low natural gas prices led coal plants to significantly reduce the percentage of time that they generated power. In 2020, the utilization rate (known as the capacity factor) of U.S. coal-fired generators averaged 40%. Before 2010, coal capacity factors routinely averaged 70% or more. This year’s higher natural gas prices have increased the average coal capacity factor to about 51%, which is almost the 2018 average, a year when wind and solar reached 10% nationally.

Although rising natural gas prices have resulted in more U.S. coal-fired generation than last year, this increase in coal generation will most likely not continue as solar and wind expand in the generation mix. The electric power sector has retired about 30% of its generating capacity at coal plants since 2010, and no new coal-fired capacity has come online in the United States since 2013. In addition, coal stocks at U.S. power plants are relatively low, and production at operating coal mines has not been increasing as rapidly as the recent increase in coal demand. For 2022, we forecast that U.S. coal-fired generation will decline about 5% in response to continuing retirements of generating capacity at coal power plants and slightly lower natural gas prices.

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EU Solar Impact on Electricity Prices highlights how rising solar PV penetration drives negative pricing, shifts peak hours, pressures wholesale markets, and challenges grid balancing, interconnection, and flexibility amid changing demand and renewables growth.

Key Points

Explains how rising solar PV cuts wholesale prices, shifts negative-price hours, and strains grid flexibility.

✅ Negative pricing events surge with higher solar penetration.

✅ Afternoon price dips replace night-time wind-led lows.

✅ Grid balancing, interconnectors, and flexibility become critical.

The latest EU electricity market report has confirmed the affect deeper penetration of solar is having on wholesale electricity prices more broadly.

The Quarterly Report on European Electricity Markets for the final three months of last year noted the number of periods of negative electricity pricing doubled from 2019, to almost 1,600 such events, as global renewables set new records in deployment across markets.

Having experienced just three negative price events in 2019, the Netherlands recorded almost 100 last year “amid a dramatic increase in solar PV capacity,” in the nation, according to the report.

Whilst stressing the exceptional nature of the Covid-19 pandemic on power consumption patterns, the quarterly update also noted a shift in the hours during which negative electric pricing occurred in renewables poster child Germany. Previously such events were most common at night, during periods of high wind speed and low demand, but 2020 saw a switch to afternoon negative pricing. “Thus,” stated the report, “solar PV became the main driver behind prices falling into negative territory in the German market in 2020, as Germany's solar boost accelerated, and also put afternoon prices under pressure generally.”

The report also highlighted two instances of scarce electricity–in mid September and on December 9–as evidence of the problems associated with accommodating a rising proportion of intermittent clean energy capacity into the grid, and called for more joined-up cross-border power networks, amid pushback from Russian oil and gas across the continent.

Rising solar generation–along with higher gas output, year on year–also helped the Netherlands generate a net surplus of electricity last year, after being a net importer “for many years.” The EU report also noted a beneficial effect of rising solar generation capacity on Hungary‘s national electricity account, and cited a solar “boom” in that country and Poland, mirroring rapid solar PV growth in China in recent years.

With Covid-19 falls in demand helping renewables generate more of Europe's electricity (39%) than fossil fuels (36%) for the first time, as renewables surpassed fossil fuels across Europe, the market report observed the 5% of the bloc's power produced from solar closed in on the 6% accounted for by hard coal. In the final three months of the year, European solar output rose 12%, year on year, to 18 TWh and “the increase was almost single-handedly driven by Spain,” the study added.

With coal and lignite-fired power plunging 22% last year across the bloc, it is estimated the European power sector reduced its carbon footprint 14% as part of Europe's green surge although the quarterly report warned cold weather, lower wind speeds and rising gas prices in the opening months of this year are likely to see carbon emissions rebound.

There was good news on the transport front, though, with the report stating the scale of the European “electrically-charged vehicle” fleet doubled in 2020, to 2 million, with almost half a million of the new registrations arriving in the final months of the year. That meant cars with plug sockets accounted for a remarkable 17% of new purchases in Q4, twice the proportion seen in China and a slice of the pie six times bigger than such products claimed in the U.S.

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Edmonton Electric Buses usher in zero-emission public transit with Proterra battery-electric vehicles, 350 km range, quiet rides, winter-ready performance, and overhead depot chargers, as ETS rolls out Canada's largest electric fleet across city routes.

Key Points

Battery-electric ETS vehicles from Proterra deliver zero-emission service, 350 km range, and winter-capable operation.

✅ Up to 350 km per charge; overhead depot fast chargers

✅ Quiet, smooth rides; zero tailpipe emissions

✅ Winter-tested performance across ETS routes

Your next trip on Edmonton transit could be a historical one as the city’s first battery-electric bus is now on city streets, marking a milestone for Edmonton Transit Service, and neighboring St. Albert has also introduced electric buses as part of regional goals.

“Transit has been around since 1908 in Edmonton. We had some really small buses, we had some trolley buses several years later. It’s a special day in history today,” Ryan Birch, acting director of transit operations, said. “It’s a fresh experience… quiet, smooth riding. It’s going to be absolutely wonderful.”

In a news release, Mayor Don Iveson called it the largest purchase of electric buses in Canadian history, while North America's largest electric bus fleet operates in Toronto today, and Metro Vancouver has buses on the road as well this year.

“Electric buses are a major component of the future of public transit in our city and across Canada.”

As of Tuesday, 21 of the 40 electric buses had arrived in the city, and the Toronto Transit Commission has introduced battery-electric buses in Toronto as well this year.

“We’re going to start rolling these out with four or five buses per day until we’ve got all the buses in stock rolled out. On Wednesday we will have three or four buses out,” Birch said.

The remaining 19 are scheduled to arrive in the fall.

The City of Edmonton ordered the battery-electric buses from Proterra, an electric bus supplier, while Montreal's STM has begun rolling out electric buses of its own recently.

The fleet can travel up to 350 kilometres on a single charge and the batteries work in all weather conditions, including Edmonton’s harsh winters, and electric school buses in B.C. have also taken to the roads in cold climates recently.

In 2015, ETS winter tested a few electric buses to see if the technology would be suitable for the city’s climate and geography amid barriers to wider adoption that many agencies consider.

“These buses are designed to handle most of our routes,” Birch said. “We are confident they will be able to stand up to what we expect of them.”

ETS is the first transit agency in North America to have overhead chargers installed inside transit facilities, which helps to save floor space.

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Atlin Hydro and Transmission Project delivers First Nation-led clean energy via hydropower to the Yukon grid, replacing diesel, cutting emissions, and creating jobs, with a 69-kV line from Atlin, B.C., supplying about 35 GWh annually.

Key Points

A First Nation-led 8.5 MW hydropower and 69-kV line supplying clean energy to the Yukon, reducing diesel use.

✅ 8.5 MW capacity; ~35 GWh annually to Yukon grid

✅ 69-kV, 92 km line links Atlin to Jakes Corner

✅ Creates 176 construction jobs; cuts diesel and emissions

A First Nation-led clean-power generation project for British Columbia’s Northwest will provide a significant economic boost and good jobs for people in the area, as well as ongoing revenue from clean energy sold to the Yukon.

“This clean-energy project has the potential to be a win-win: creating opportunities for people, revenue for the community and cleaner air for everyone across the Northwest,” said Premier John Horgan. “That’s why our government is proud to be working in partnership with the Taku River Tlingit First Nation and other levels of government to make this promising project a reality. Together, we can build a stronger, cleaner future by producing more clean hydropower to replace fossil fuels – just as they have done here in Atlin.”

The Province is contributing $20 million toward a hydroelectric generation and transmission project being developed by the Taku River Tlingit First Nation (TRTFN) to replace diesel electricity generation in the Yukon, which is also supported by the Government of Yukon and the Government of Canada, and comes as BC Hydro demand fell during COVID-19 across the province.

“Renewable-energy projects are helping remote communities reduce the use of diesel for electricity generation, which reduces air pollution, improves environmental outcomes and creates local jobs,” said Bruce Ralston, Minister of Energy, Mines and Low Carbon Innovation. “This project will advance reconciliation with TRTFN, foster economic development in Atlin and support intergovernmental efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.”

TRTFN is based in Atlin with territory in B.C., the Yukon, and Alaska. TRTFN is an active participant in clean-energy development and, since 2009, has successfully replaced diesel-generated electricity in Atlin with a 2.1-megawatt (MW) hydro facility amid oversight issues such as BC Hydro misled regulator elsewhere in the province today.

TRTFN owns the Tlingit Homeland Energy Limited Partnership (THELP), which promotes economic development through clean energy. THELP plans to expand its hydro portfolio by constructing the Atlin Hydro and Transmission Project and selling electricity to the Yukon via a new transmission line, in a landscape shaped by T&D rates decisions in jurisdictions like Ontario for cost recovery.

The Government of Yukon is requiring its Yukon Energy Corporation (YEC) to generate 97% of its electricity from renewable resources by 2030. This project provides an opportunity for the Yukon government to reduce reliance on diesel generators and to meet future load growth, at a time when Manitoba Hydro's debt pressures highlight utility cost challenges.

The new transmission line between Atlin and the Yukon grid will include a fibre-optic data cable to support facility operations, with surplus capacity that can be used to bring high-speed internet connectivity to Atlin residents for the first time.

“Opportunities like this hydroelectricity project led by the Taku River Tlingit First Nation is a great example of identifying and then supporting First Nations-led clean-energy opportunities that will support resilient communities and provide clean economic opportunities in the region for years to come. We all have a responsibility to invest in projects that benefit our shared climate goals while advancing economic reconciliation.” said George Heyman, Minister of Environment and Climate Change Strategy.

“Thank you to the Government of British Columbia for investing in this important project, which will further strengthen the connection between the Yukon and Atlin. This ambitious initiative will expand renewable energy capacity in the North in partnership with the Taku River Tlingit First Nation while reducing the Yukon’s emissions and ensuring energy remains affordable for Yukoners.“ said Sandy Silver, Premier of Yukon.

“The Atlin Hydro Project represents an important step toward meeting the Yukon’s growing electricity needs and the renewable energy targets in the Our Clean Future strategy. Our government is proud to contribute to the development of this project and we thank the Government of British Columbia and all partners for their contributions and commitment to renewable energy initiatives. This project demonstrates what can be accomplished when communities, First Nations and federal, provincial and territorial governments come together to plan for a greener economy and future.” said John Streicker, Minister Responsible for the Yukon Development Corporation. 

“Atlin has enjoyed clean and renewable energy since 2009 because of our hydroelectric project. Over its lifespan, Atlin’s hydro opportunity will prevent more than one million tonnes of greenhouse gases from being created to power the southern Yukon. We are looking forward to the continuation of this project. Our collective dream is to meet our environmental and economic goals for the region and our local community within the next 10 years. We are so grateful to all our partners involved for their financial support, as we continue onward in creating an energy efficient and sustainable North.” said Charmaine Thom, Taku River Tlingit First Nation spokesperson.

Quick Facts:

• The 8.5-MW project is expected to provide an average of 35 gigawatt hours of energy annually to the Yukon. To accomplish this, TRTFN plans to leverage the existing water storage capability of Surprise Lake, add new infrastructure, and send power 92 km north to Jakes Corner, Yukon, along a new 69-kilovolt transmission line.
• The project is expected to cost $253 - 308.5 million, the higher number reflecting recently estimated impacts of inflation and supply chain cost escalation, alongside sector accounting concerns such as deferred BC Hydro costs noted in recent reports.
• The project is expected to have a positive impact on local and provincial economic development in the form of, even as governance debates like Manitoba Hydro board changes draw attention elsewhere:
• 176 full-time positions during construction;
• six to eight full-time positions in operations and maintenance over 40 years; and
• increased business for B.C. contractors.
• Territorial and federal funders have committed $151.1 million to support the project, most recently the $32.2 million committed in the 2022 federal bdget.

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Taltson Hydro Electric Heating directs surplus hydro power in the South Slave to space heat via discounted rates, displacing diesel and cutting greenhouse gas emissions, with rebates, separate metering, and backup systems shaping adoption.

Key Points

An initiative using Taltson's surplus hydro to heat buildings, discount rates replace diesel and cut emissions.

✅ 6.3 cents/kWh heating rate needs separate metering, backup heat

✅ 4-6 MW surplus hydro; outages require diesel; rebates available

✅ Program may be curtailed if new mines or mills demand power

A Northwest Territories green energy advocate says there's an obvious way to expand demand for electricity in the territory's South Slave region without relying on new mining developments — direct it toward heating.

One of the reasons the N.W.T. has always had some of the highest electricity rates in Canada is that a small number of people have to shoulder the huge costs of hydro facilities and power plants.

But some observers point out that residents consume as much energy for heat as they do for conventional uses of electricity, such as lighting and powering appliances. Right now almost all of that heat is generated by expensive oil imported from the United States.

The Northwest Territories Power Corporation says the 18-megawatt Taltson hydro system that serves the South Slave typically has four to six megawatts of excess generating capacity, even as record demand in Yukon is reported. It says using some of that to generate heat is a government priority.

But renewable energy advocate and former N.W.T. MP Dennis Bevington, who lives in the South Slave and heats his home using electricity, says the government is not making it easy for people to tap into that surplus to heat their homes and businesses, a debate that some say would benefit from independent planning at the national level.

Discount rate for heating, but there are catches
The power corporation offers hydro electricity from Taltson to use for heating at a much lower price than it charges for electricity generally. The discounted rate is not available to residential customers.

According to the corporation, consumers pay only 6.3 cents per kilowatt hour compared to the regular rate of just under 24 cents, while Manitoba Hydro financial pressures highlight the risks of expanding demand without new generation.

But to distinguish between the two, users are required to cover the cost of installing a separate power meter. Bevington, who developed the N.W.T.'s first energy strategy, says that is an unnecessary expense.

Taltson expansion key to reducing N.W.T.'s greenhouse gas emissions, says gov't
"The billing is how you control that," he said. "You establish an average electrical use in the winter months. That could be the base rate. Then, if you use power in the winter months above that, you get the discount."

Users are also required to have a back-up heating system. Taltson hydro power offers heating on the understanding that when the hydro system is down — such as during power outages or annual summer maintenance of the hydro system — electricity is not available for heating.
The president and CEO of the power corporation says there's a good reason for that. "The diesels are more expensive to run and they're actually greenhouse gas emitting," said Noel Voykin. "The whole idea of this [electric heat] program is to provide clean energy that is not otherwise being used."

According to the corporation, there have been huge savings for the few who have tapped into the hydro system to heat their buildings, and across Canada utilities are exploring novel generation such as NB Power's Belledune seawater project to diversify supply.

It's being used to heat Aurora College's Breynat Hall, and Joseph B. Tyrrell Elementary School and the transportation department garage in Fort Smith, N.W.T. Electricity is also used to heat the Jackfish power plant in the North Slave region.

The corporation says that during a four-year period, this saved more than 600,000 litres of diesel fuel and reduced greenhouse gas emissions by about 1,700 tonnes.

Bevington says the most obvious place to expand the use of electrical heat is to government housing.

"We have a hundred public housing units in Fort Smith," he said. "The government is putting diesel into those units [for heating] and they could be putting in their own electricity."

Heating a tiny part of energy market
The corporation says it sells only about 2.5 megawatts of electricity for heating each year, which is less than four per cent of the power it sells in the region. It says with some upgrades, another two megawatts of electricity could be made available for electrical heat.

Bevington says the corporation could do more to market electricity for heating. Voykin said that's the government's job. There are three programs that offer rebates to residents and businesses converting to electric heating.

If you build it, will they come? N.W.T. gov't hopes hydro expansion will attract investment
There are better options than billion dollar Taltson expansion, say energy leaders
There may be a reason why the government and the corporation are not more aggressively promoting using surplus electricity in the Taltson system for heating, as large hydro ambitions have reopened old wounds in places like Quebec and Newfoundland and Labrador during recent debates.

It is anticipating that new industrial customers may require that excess capacity in the coming years, and experiences elsewhere show that accommodating new energy-intensive customers can be challenging for utilities. Voykin said those potential new customers include a proposed mine at Pine Point and a pellet mill in Enterprise, N.W.T., even as biomass use faces environmental pushback in some regions.

The corporation says any surplus power in the system will be sold at standard rates to any new industrial customers instead of at discount rates for heating. If that requires cutting back on the heating program, it will be cut back.

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North Carolina Power Outages continue after Hurricane Florence, with Wilmington and Eastern Carolina facing flooding, storm damage, and limited access as Duke Energy crews and mutual aid work on restoration across affected counties.

Key Points

Outages after Hurricane Florence, with Wilmington and Eastern Carolina hardest hit as crews restore service amid floods.

✅ Over 250,000 outages statewide as of early Wednesday

✅ Wilmington cut off by flooding, hindering utility access

✅ Duke Energy and EMC crews conduct phased restoration

Power is slowly being restored to Eastern Carolina residents after Hurricane Florence made landfall near Wilmington on Friday, September 15, a scenario echoed by storm-related outages in Tennessee in recent days.

On Monday, more than half a million people remained without power across the state, a situation comparable to post-typhoon electricity losses in Hong Kong reported elsewhere.

As of Wednesday morning at 1am, the Dept. of Public Safety reports 252,596 total power outages in North Carolina, and utilities continue warning about copper theft hazards during restoration.

More than half of those customers are in Eastern Carolina.

More than 32,000 customers are without power in Carteret County and roughly 21,000 are without power in Onslow County.

In Craven County, roughly 15,000 people remain without power Wednesday morning.

Many of the state's outages are effecting the Wilmington area, where Florence made landfall and widespread flooding is still cutting off the city from outside resources, similar to how a fire-triggered outage in Los Angeles disrupted service regionally.

Heavy rain, strong winds and now flooded roadways have hindered power crews, challenges that utility climate adaptation aims to address while many of them have out-of-state or out-of-town help working to restore power to so many people.

Here's a breakdown of current outages by utility company:

DUKE ENERGY PROGRESS - 

• 1,350 in Beaufort Co. 
• 10,706 in Carteret Co. 
• 2,716 in Pamlico Co. 
• 7,422 in Craven Co. 
• 1,687 in Jones Co. 
• 13,319 in Onslow Co. 
• 7,452 in Pender Co. 
• 48,281 in New Hanover Co. 
• 5,257 in Duplin Co. 
• 488 in Lenoir Co. 
• 1,231 in Pitt Co.

JONES-ONSLOW EMC - 10,964 total 

• 7,699 in Onslow Co. 
• 2,366 in Pender Co. 
• 816 in Jones Co.

TIDELAND EMC - 

• 174 in Beaufort Co.
• 1,521 in Craven Co.
• 1,693 in Pamlico Co.

CARTERET-CRAVEN ELECTRIC CO OP- 

• 21,974 in Carteret Co. 
• 6,553 in Craven Co.
• 216 in Jones Co.

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