Billions wasted when replacing failed motors

UK Energy Price Guarantee Cost forecasts from Cornwall Insight suggest an £89bn bill, tied to wholesale gas prices, OBR projections, and fiscal policy, to shield households amid the cost of living crisis.

Key Points

It is the projected government spend to cap household bills, driven by wholesale gas prices and OBR market forecasts.

✅ Base case: £89bn over two years, per Cornwall Insight

✅ Range: £72bn to £140bn, volatile wholesale gas costs

✅ Excludes 6-month business support estimated at £22bn-£48bn

Liz Truss’s intervention to freeze energy prices for households for two years is expected to cost the government £89bn, according to the first major costing of the policy by the sector’s leading consultancy.

The analysis from Cornwall Insight, seen exclusively by the Guardian, shows the prime minister’s plan to tackle the cost of living crisis could cost as much as £140bn in a worst-case scenario.

Truss announced in early September that the average annual bill for a typical household would be capped at £2,500 to protect consumers from the intensifying cost of living crisis amid high winter energy costs and a scheduled 80% rise in the cap to £3,549.

The ultimate cost of the policy is uncertain as it is highly dependent on the wholesale cost of gas, including UK natural gas prices which have soared since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine put a squeeze on already-volatile international markets. Ballpark projections had put the cost anywhere from £100bn to £150bn.

The Office for Budget Responsibility is expected to give its forecast for the bill when it provides its independent assessment of Kwasi Kwarteng’s medium-term fiscal plan, which the chancellor said on Tuesday would still happen on 23 November despite previous reports that it would be brought forward.

Cornwall Insight analysed projections of wholesale market moves to cost the intervention. In its base case scenario, analysts expect the policy to cost £89bn. That assumes the cost of supporting each household would be just over £1,000 in the first year, and about £2,000 in the second year.

The study’s authors said the wholesale price of gas would be influenced by energy demand, the severity of weather, “geo-political uncertainty” and prices for liquified natural gas as Europe seeks to refill storage facilities, which countries have rushed to fill up this winter but which could be relatively empty by next spring.

In the best-case outcome, the policy would cost £72bn, with some projections pointing to a 16% decrease in energy bills in April for households, while the “extreme high” outlook would see the government shell out £140bn to protect 29m UK households.

Gas prices are expected to push even higher if the Kremlin decides to completely cut off Russian gas exports into Europe.

Cornwall Insight’s projection does not include a separate six-month initiative to cap costs for companies, charities and public sector organisations, which is forecast to cost £22bn to £48bn.

The consultancy’s chief executive, Gareth Miller, said the £70bn range in its forecasts reflected “a febrile wholesale market continuing to be beset by geopolitical instability, sensitivity to demand, weather and infrastructure resilience”.

He said: “Fortune befriends the bold, but it also favours the prepared. The large uncertainties around commodity markets over the next two years means that the government could get lucky with costs coming out at the low end of the range, but the opposite could also be true.

“In each case, the government may find itself passengers to circumstances outside its control, having made policy that is a hostage to surprises, events and volatile factors. That’s a difficult position to be in.”

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The government has faced criticism, as some British MPs urge tighter limits on prices, that the policy is effectively a “blank cheque” and is not targeted at the most vulnerable in society.

Concerns over how Truss and Kwarteng intend to fund a series of measures, including the price guarantee, have spooked financial markets.

The EU, which has outlined possible gas price cap strategies in recent proposals, said last week it planned to cap the revenues of low-carbon electricity generators at €180 a megawatt hour, which is less than half current market prices. Truss has so far resisted calls to extend a levy on North Sea oil and gas operators to electricity generators, who have benefited from a link between gas and electricity prices in Britain.

Truss hopes to strike voluntary long-term deals with generators including Centrica and EDF, alongside the government’s Energy Security Bill measures, to bring down wholesale prices.

The Financial Times reported on Tuesday that the government has threatened companies with legislation to cap their revenues if voluntary deals cannot be agreed.

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Ukraine nuclear safety risks escalate as IAEA warns of power grid attacks threatening reactor cooling, diesel generators, and Zaporizhzhia oversight, prompting UN calls for demilitarized zones to prevent radioactive releases and accidents.

Key Points

Escalating threats from grid attacks and outages that jeopardize reactor cooling, IAEA oversight, and public safety.

✅ Power grid strikes threaten reactor cooling systems.

✅ Emergency diesel generators are last defense lines.

✅ Calls grow for demilitarized zones around plants.

In early February 2025, Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), expressed grave concerns regarding the safety of Ukraine's nuclear facilities amid ongoing Russian attacks on the country's power grids, as Kyiv warned of a difficult winter without power after deadly strikes on energy infrastructure. Grossi's warnings highlight the escalating risks to nuclear safety and the potential for catastrophic accidents.

The Threat to Nuclear Safety

Ukraine's nuclear infrastructure, including the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant—the largest in Europe—relies heavily on a stable power supply to maintain critical cooling systems and other safety measures. Russian military operations targeting Ukraine's energy infrastructure have led to power outages, and created hazards akin to those highlighted in downed power line safety guidance during emergency repairs, jeopardizing the safe operation of these facilities. Grossi emphasized that such disruptions could result in severe nuclear accidents if cooling systems fail.

IAEA's Response and Actions

In response to these threats, the IAEA has been actively involved in monitoring and assessing the situation. Grossi visited Kyiv to inspect electrical substations and discuss safety measures with Ukrainian officials. He underscored the necessity of ensuring uninterrupted power to nuclear plants and the critical role of emergency diesel generators as a last line of defense, and noted that maintaining staffing continuity, including measures such as staff living on site at critical facilities, may be necessary. The IAEA has also postponed the rotation of its mission at the Zaporizhzhia plant due to security concerns, as reported by Reuters.

International Concerns and Diplomatic Efforts

The international community has expressed deep concern over the potential for nuclear accidents in Ukraine, echoing earlier grid overseer warnings about systemic risks in other crises that stress energy systems. The United Nations and various countries have called for the establishment of a demilitarized zone around nuclear facilities to prevent military activities that could compromise their safety. Diplomatic efforts are ongoing to facilitate dialogue between Russia and Ukraine, aiming to ensure the protection of nuclear sites and the safety of surrounding populations.

The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant

The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, located in southeastern Ukraine, has been under Russian control since early in the conflict, with Rosatom cooperation agreements reflecting broader nuclear policy priorities that frame Moscow's approach to the sector. The plant consists of six reactors and has been a focal point of international concern due to its size and the potential consequences of any incident. The IAEA has been working to maintain oversight and ensure the plant's safety amid the ongoing conflict.

Potential Consequences of Nuclear Accidents

A nuclear accident at any of Ukraine's nuclear facilities could have catastrophic consequences, including the release of radioactive materials, displacement of populations, and long-term environmental damage, with communities potentially facing weeks without electricity and basic services in the aftermath. The proximity of these plants to densely populated areas further amplifies the risks. The international community continues to monitor the situation closely, emphasizing the need for immediate action to safeguard nuclear facilities.

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has introduced unprecedented challenges to nuclear safety. The IAEA's warnings and actions underscore the critical need for international cooperation to protect nuclear facilities from the dangers posed by military activities. Ensuring the safety of these sites is paramount to prevent potential disasters that could have far-reaching humanitarian and environmental impacts, and sustained attention to nuclear workers' safety concerns helps maintain operational readiness under strain.

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Ontario TOU Electricity Rate Relief offers 24/7 fixed off-peak pricing at 10.1¢/kWh, suspending time-of-use tiers to support residential customers, small businesses, and farms, coordinated by the Ontario Energy Board during COVID-19.

Key Points

A 45-day policy fixing TOU power at 10.1¢/kWh 24/7 off-peak to ease costs for residents, small businesses, and farms.

✅ Applies 24/7 off-peak 10.1¢/kWh to all TOU electricity customers.

✅ Automatic bill credit; no application or enrollment required.

✅ Covers residential, small businesses, and farms; OEB coordination.

To support Ontarians through the rapidly evolving COVID-19 situation, the Government of Ontario is providing immediate electricity rate relief for families, small businesses and farms paying time-of-use (TOU) rates.

For a 45-day period, the government is working to suspend time-of-use electricity rates, holding electricity prices to the off-peak rate of 10.1 cents-per-kilowatt-hour. This reduced price will be available 24 hours per day, seven days a week to all time-of-use customers, who make up the majority of electricity consumers in the province. By switching to a fixed off-peak rate, time-of-use customers will see rate reductions of over 50 per cent compared to on-peak rates now in effect.

To deliver savings as quickly and conveniently as possible, this discount will be applied automatically to electricity bills without the need for customers to fill out an application form.

"During this unprecedented time, we are providing much-needed relief to Ontarians, specifically helping those who are doing the right thing by staying home and small businesses that have closed or are seeing fewer customers," said Premier Doug Ford. "By adopting a fixed, 24/7 off-peak rate, aligned with ultra-low overnight pricing options, we are making things a little easier during these difficult times and putting more money in people's pockets for other important priorities and necessities."

The Government of Ontario issued an Emergency Order under the Emergency Management and Civil Protection Act to apply the off-peak TOU electricity rate for residential, small businesses, and farm customers who currently pay TOU rates.

"Ontario is fortunate to have a strong electricity system we can rely on during these exceptional times, even as Ottawa's electricity consumption decreased during the pandemic, and our government is proud to provide additional relief to Ontarians who are doing their part to stay home," said Greg Rickford, Minister of Energy, Northern Development and Mines.

"We thank the Ontario Energy Board and our partners at local distribution companies across the province, including initiatives like Hydro One's Ultra-Low Overnight Price Plan that support customers, for taking quick action to make this change and provide immediate support for hardworking people of Ontario," said Bill Walker, Associate Minister of Energy.

Visit Ontario's website to learn more about how the province continues to protect Ontarians from COVID-19.

Quick Facts

• The Ontario Energy Board sets time-of-use electricity rates for residential and small business customers through the Regulated Price Plan, and provides stable electricity pricing for industrial and commercial companies through separate programs.
• Time-of-use prices as of November, 2019 ― Off-Peak: 10.1₵/kWh, Mid-Peak: 14.4₵/kWh, On-Peak: 20.8₵/kWh
• Depending on billing cycles, some customers will see these changes on their next electricity bill. TOU customers whose billing cycle ended before their local distribution company implemented this change will receive the reduced rate as a credit on a future bill.
• The Ontario Electricity Rebate (OER) will continue to provide a 31.8 per cent rebate on the sub-total bill amount for all existing Regulated Price Plan (RPP) consumers.
• There are approximately five million residential consumers, farms and some small businesses billed using time-of-use (TOU) electricity prices under the RPP.
• The Ontario Energy Board has extended the winter ban on disconnections to July 31st.

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Ukraine Winter Energy Strategy strengthens the power grid through infrastructure repairs, electricity imports, renewable integration, nuclear output, and conservation to ensure reliable heating, blackout mitigation, and grid resilience with international aid, generators, and transmission lines.

Key Points

A wartime plan to stabilize Ukraine's grid via repairs, imports, renewables, and nuclear to deliver reliable electricity.

✅ Repairs, imports, and demand management stabilize the grid.

✅ Renewables and nuclear reduce outage risks in winter.

✅ International aid supplies transformers, generators, expertise.

As Ukraine braces for the winter months, the question of how the country will keep the lights on has become a pressing concern, as the country fights to keep the lights on amid ongoing strikes. The ongoing war with Russia has severely disrupted Ukraine's energy infrastructure, leading to widespread damage to power plants, transmission lines, and other critical energy facilities. Despite these challenges, Ukraine has been working tirelessly to maintain its energy supply during the cold winter months, which are essential not only for heating but also for the functioning of homes, businesses, hospitals, and schools. Here's a closer look at the steps Ukraine is taking to keep the lights on this winter and ensure that its people have access to reliable electricity.

1. Repairing Damaged Infrastructure

One of the most immediate concerns for Ukraine's energy sector is the extensive damage inflicted on its power infrastructure by Russian missile and drone attacks. Since the war began in 2022, Ukraine has faced repeated attacks targeting power plants, substations, and power lines, including strikes on western regions that caused widespread outages across communities. These attacks have left parts of the country with intermittent or no electricity, and repairing the damage has been a monumental task.

However, Ukraine has made significant progress in restoring its energy infrastructure. Government agencies and energy companies have been working around the clock to repair power plants and transmission networks. Teams of technicians and engineers have been deployed to restore power to areas that have been hardest hit by Russian attacks, often under difficult and dangerous conditions. While some areas may continue to face outages, efforts to rebuild the energy grid are ongoing, with the government prioritizing critical infrastructure to ensure that hospitals, military facilities, and essential services have access to power.

2. Energy Efficiency and Conservation Measures

To cope with reduced energy availability and avoid overloading the grid, Ukrainian authorities have been encouraging energy efficiency and conservation measures. These efforts are particularly important during the winter when demand for electricity and heating is at its peak.

The government has implemented energy-saving programs, urging citizens and businesses to reduce their consumption and adopt new energy solutions that can be deployed quickly. Measures include limiting electricity use during peak hours, setting thermostats lower in homes and businesses, and encouraging the use of energy-efficient appliances. Ukrainian officials have also been promoting public awareness campaigns to educate people about the importance of energy conservation, which is crucial to avoid grid overload and ensure the distribution of power across the country.

3. Importing Energy from Abroad

To supplement domestic energy production, Ukraine has been working to secure electricity imports from neighboring countries. Ukraine has long been interconnected with energy grids in countries such as Poland, Slovakia, and Hungary, which allows it to import electricity during times of shortage. In recent months, Ukraine has ramped up efforts to strengthen these connections, ensuring that it can import electricity when domestic production is insufficient to meet demand, and in a notable instance, helped Spain during blackouts through coordinated cross-border support.

While electricity imports from neighboring countries provide a temporary solution, this is not without its challenges. The cost of importing electricity can be high, and the country’s ability to import large amounts of power depends on the availability of energy in neighboring nations; officials say there are electricity reserves and no scheduled outages if strikes do not resume. Ukraine has been actively seeking new energy partnerships and working with international organizations to secure access to electricity, including exploring the potential for importing energy from the European Union.

4. Harnessing Renewable Energy Sources

Another key part of Ukraine's strategy to keep the lights on this winter is tapping into renewable energy sources, particularly wind and solar power. While Ukraine’s energy sector has historically been dependent on fossil fuels, the country has been making strides in integrating renewable energy into its grid. Solar and wind energy are particularly useful in supplementing the national grid, especially during the winter months when demand is high.

Renewable energy sources are less vulnerable to missile strikes compared to traditional power plants, making them an attractive option for Ukraine's energy strategy. Although renewable energy currently represents a smaller portion of Ukraine’s overall energy mix, its contribution is expected to increase as the country invests more in clean energy infrastructure. In addition to reducing dependence on fossil fuels, this shift is aligned with Ukraine’s broader environmental goals and will be important for the long-term sustainability of its energy sector.

5. International Aid and Support

International support has been crucial in helping Ukraine keep the lights on during the war. Western allies, including the European Union and the United States, have provided financial assistance, technical expertise, and equipment to help restore the energy infrastructure, though Washington recently ended some grid restoration support as priorities shifted. In addition to rebuilding power plants and transmission lines, Ukraine has received advanced energy technologies and materials to strengthen its energy security.

The U.S. has sent electrical transformers, backup generators, and other essential equipment to help Ukraine restore its energy grid. The European Union has also provided both financial and technical assistance, supporting Ukraine’s efforts to integrate more renewable energy into its grid and enhancing the country’s ability to import electricity from neighboring states.

6. The Role of Nuclear Energy

Ukraine’s nuclear energy plants play a critical role in the country’s electricity supply. Before the war, nuclear power accounted for around 50% of Ukraine’s total electricity generation, and for communities near the front line, electricity is civilization that depends on reliable baseload. Despite the ongoing conflict, Ukrainian nuclear plants have remained operational, though they face heightened security risks due to the proximity of active combat zones.

In the winter months, nuclear plants are expected to continue providing a significant portion of Ukraine's electricity, which is essential for meeting the country's heating and power needs. The government has made efforts to ensure the safety and security of these plants, which remain a vital part of the country's energy strategy.

Keeping the lights on in Ukraine during the winter of 2024 is no small feat, given the war-related damage to energy infrastructure, rising energy demands, and ongoing security risks. However, the Ukrainian government has taken proactive steps to address these challenges, including repairing critical infrastructure, importing energy from neighboring countries, promoting energy efficiency, and expanding renewable energy sources. International aid and the continued operation of nuclear plants also play a vital role in ensuring a reliable energy supply. While challenges remain, Ukraine’s resilience and determination to overcome its energy crisis are clear, and the country is doing everything it can to keep the lights on through this difficult winter.

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Pacific Northwest Transmission Bottleneck slows clean energy progress as BPA's aging grid constrains renewable interconnections, delaying wind, solar, and data center growth; decarbonization targets depend on transmission upgrades, new substations, and policy reform.

Key Points

An interconnection and capacity shortfall on BPA's aging grid that delays renewables and impedes clean energy goals.

✅ BPA approvals lag: 1 of 469 projects since 2015.

✅ Yakama solar waits for substation upgrades until 2027.

✅ Data centers and decarbonization targets face grid constraints.

Oregon and Washington have set ambitious targets to decarbonize their power sectors, aiming for 100% clean electricity in the coming decades. However, a significant obstacle stands in the way: the region's aging and overburdened transmission grid, underscoring why 100% renewables remain elusive even as momentum builds.

The Grid Bottleneck

The BPA operates a transmission system that is nearly a century old in some areas, and its capacity has not expanded sufficiently to accommodate the influx of renewable energy projects, reflecting stalled grid spending in many parts of the U.S., according to recent analyses. Since 2015, 469 large renewable projects have applied to connect to the BPA's grid; however, only one has been approved—a stark contrast to other regions in the country. This bottleneck has left numerous wind and solar projects in limbo, unable to deliver power to the grid.

One notable example is the Yakama Nation's solar project. Despite receiving a $32 million federal grant under the bipartisan infrastructure law as part of a broader grid overhaul for renewables, the tribe faces significant delays. The BPA estimates that it will take until 2027 to complete the necessary upgrades to the transmission system, including a new substation, before the solar array can be connected. This timeline poses a risk of losing federal funding if the project isn't operational by 2031.

Economic and Environmental Implications

The slow pace of grid expansion has broader implications for the region's economy and environmental goals. Data centers and other energy-intensive industries are increasingly drawn to the Pacific Northwest due to its clean energy potential, while interregional projects like the Wyoming-to-California wind link illustrate how transmission access can unlock supply. However, without adequate infrastructure, these industries may seek alternatives elsewhere. Additionally, the inability to integrate renewable energy efficiently hampers efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and combat climate change.

Policy Challenges and Legislative Efforts

Efforts to address the grid limitations through state-level initiatives have faced challenges, even as a federal rule to boost transmission advances nationally. In 2025, both Oregon and Washington considered legislation to establish state bonding authorities aimed at financing transmission upgrades. However, these bills failed to pass, leaving the BPA as the primary entity responsible for grid expansion. The BPA's unique structure—operating as a self-funded federal agency without direct state oversight—has made it difficult for regional leaders to influence its decision-making processes.

Looking Ahead

The Pacific Northwest's renewable energy aspirations hinge on modernizing its transmission infrastructure, aligning with decarbonization strategies that emphasize grid buildout. While the BPA has proposed several projects to enhance grid capacity, the timeline for completion remains uncertain. Without significant investment and policy reforms, the region risks falling behind in the transition to a clean energy future. Stakeholders across Oregon and Washington must collaborate to advocate for necessary changes and ensure that the grid can support the growing demand for renewable energy.

The Pacific Northwest's commitment to clean energy is commendable, but achieving these goals requires overcoming substantial infrastructure challenges, and neighboring jurisdictions such as British Columbia have pursued B.C. regulatory streamlining to accelerate projects. Addressing the limitations of the BPA's transmission system is critical to unlocking the full potential of renewable energy in the region. Only through concerted efforts at the federal, state, and local levels can Oregon and Washington hope to realize their green energy ambitions.

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New York faces soaring energy bills as utilities seek record rate hikes, aging grid infrastructure demands upgrades, and federal renewable policies shift. Consumers struggle with affordability, late payments, and rising costs of delivery and energy supply across the state.

Why is New York Facing Soaring Energy Bills?

New York faces soaring energy bills because utilities are raising rates to cover the costs of grid upgrades, inflation, and policy-driven changes in energy supply.

✅ Utilities seek double-digit rate hikes across the state

✅ Aging infrastructure and storm repairs increase delivery costs

✅ Federal policies and gas dependence push energy prices higher

New Yorkers are bracing for another wave of energy bill increases as utilities seek record-high rate hikes and policy changes ripple through the state’s power system. Electric bills in New York are the highest they’ve been in over a decade, and more than a million households are now at least two months behind on payments, a sign of pandemic energy insecurity that continues to strain budgets, owing utilities nearly $2 billion.

Record numbers of households have had their electricity or gas shut off this year — more than 61,000 in May alone — despite pandemic shut-off suspensions that had offered temporary relief, the highest the Public Utility Law Project (PULP) has ever recorded. “This August was the group’s busiest month ever,” said Laurie Wheelock, PULP’s executive director, citing a surge in calls to its hotline. “The top concern on people’s minds: rate hikes.”

Utilities across the state are pushing for significant price increases, citing aging infrastructure, the need for climate adaptation, and higher operating costs, as California regulators face calls for action amid rising bills. “We used to see single-digit rate hikes and now we see double-digit rate hikes,” said Jessica Azulay, executive director of the Alliance for a Green Economy. “That’s a new normal that is unacceptable.”

Several utilities have requested delivery rate increases of 25 percent or more, with some proposals as high as 39 percent. Upstate utilities NYSEG and RG&E are seeking to raise electric and gas bills by about $33 a month, although regulators are unlikely to approve the full amount.

The companies argue the hikes are needed “to pay for rebuilding an aging grid and expanding its capacity to meet residents’ and businesses’ service demands,” including storm repairs. They also claim the plan would create more than 1,000 jobs.

James Denn, a spokesperson for the Public Service Commission (PSC), said much of the cost pressure stems from “inflation, higher interest rates, supply chain disruptions, the global push to upgrade electrical infrastructure, and, most recently, the rising risk and uncertainty from tariffs,” trends reflected in U.S. electricity price data over the past two years.

While some have blamed New York’s clean-energy transition, a PSC report found that state climate policies account for only 5 to 9.5 percent of the average household’s electric bill, or approximately $10 to $12 per month. The bulk of the increases still come from traditional spending on infrastructure, storm resilience, and system expansion.

On the supply side, costs are rising too. President Donald Trump’s recent policies have threatened renewable-energy investment nationwide, even as states’ renewable ambitions carry significant costs, potentially adding to New York’s woes. His July “megabill” phases out a 30 percent federal tax credit for solar and wind unless projects begin construction by mid-2026. Industry experts warn that the changes could make renewables “more expensive to build” and “increase reliance on gas.”

“It just means more expensive power,” said Marguerite Wells of the Alliance for Clean Energy New York.

The state estimates Trump’s policy shifts could cost New York $60 billion in lost renewable investment. With fewer clean-energy projects moving forward, gas — which already supplies roughly half of the state’s electricity — will remain the dominant source, tying energy prices to volatile global markets and the kinds of price drivers seen in California in recent years.

Governor Kathy Hochul has called affordability “our greatest short-term challenge,” while consumer advocates are demanding reforms to reduce utility profits and overhaul “rate design,” and to strengthen protections such as the emergency disconnection moratorium that applies during declared emergencies.

“There is definitely a groundswell of concern,” Wheelock said. “We go to meetings and we’re getting questions about rate design, like, ‘What is the revenue decoupling mechanism?’ Never had that question before.”

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