California just made more clean energy than it needed


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CAISO Net Negative Emissions signal moments when greenhouse gas intensity of serving ISO demand drops below zero, driven by high renewable generation, low load, strong solar exports, and imports accounting in the California grid.

 

Key Points

Moments when CAISO's CO2 to serve demand is below zero, driven by renewables, exports, and import accounting.

✅ Calculated using imports and exports to serve ISO demand

✅ Occur during high solar output, low weekend load

✅ Coincide with curtailment and record renewable penetration

 

We’re a long way from the land of milk and honey, but on Easter Sunday – for about an hour – we got a taste.

On Sunday, at 1:55 PM Pacific Time the California Independent Systems Operator (CAISO) reported that greenhouse gas emissions necessary to serve its demand (~80% of California’s electricity demand on an annual basis), was measured at a rate -16 metric tons of CO2 per hour. Five minutes later, the value was -2 mTCO2/h, before it crept back up to 40 mTCO2/h at 2:05 PM PST. At 2:10 PST though it fell back to -86 mTCO2/h and stayed negative until 3:05 PM PST, even as global CO2 emissions flatlined in 2019 according to the IEA.

This information was brought to the attention of pv magazine via tweet from eagle eye Jon Pa after CAISO’s site first noted the negative values:

The region was still generating CO2 though, as natural gas, biogas, biomass, geothermal and even coal plants were running and pumping out emissions, even as potent greenhouse gases declined in the US under control efforts. CAISO’s Greenhouse Gas Emission Tracking Methodology, December 28, 2016 (pdf) notes the below calculations to create the value what it terms, “Total GHG emissions to serve ISO demand”:

Of importance to note is that to get to the net negative value, CAISO considered all electricity imports and exports, a reminder that climate policy shapes grid operations across North America. And as can be noted in the image below the CO2 intensity of imports during the day rapidly declined as the sun came up, first going negative around 9:05 AM PST, and mostly staying so until just before 6 PM PST.

During this same weekend, other records were noted (reiterating that we’re in record setting season and as the state pursues its 100% carbon-free mandate now in law) such as a new electricity export record of greater than 2 GW and total renewable electricity as part of total demand at greater than 70%.

At the peak negative moment of 2:15 PM PST, -112 mTCO2/h seen below, the total amount of clean instantaneous generation being used in the power grid region was 17 GW, a far cry from heat-driven reliability strains like rolling blackout warnings that arise during extreme demand, with renewables giving 76% of the total, hydro 14%, nuclear 13% and imports of -12% countering the CO2 coming from just over 1.4 GW of gas generation.

Also of importance are a few layers of nuance in the electricity demand charts. First off we’re in the shoulder seasons  of California – nice cool weather before the warmth of summer drives air conditioning demand. Additional the weekend electricity demand is always lower, as well, Easter Sunday might have had an affect, whereas in colder regions Calgary’s electricity use can soar during frigid snaps.

Lastly to note was the amount of electricity from solar and wind generation being curtailed. And while the Sunday numbers weren’t available yet, the below image noted Saturday with 10 GWh in total being curtailed (pdf) – peaking at over 3.2 GW of instantaneous mostly solar power even as solar is now the cheapest electricity according to the IEA, in the hours of 2 and 3 PM PST. On an annualized basis, less than 2% of total potential solar electricity was curtailed in 2018.

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Maine Governor calls for 100% renewable electricity

Maine Climate Council Act targets 80% renewable power by 2030 and 100% by 2050, slashing greenhouse gas emissions via clean electricity, grid procurement, long-term contracts, wind and hydro integration, resilience planning, and carbon sequestration.

 

Key Points

A Maine policy forming a Climate Council to reach 80% renewables in 2030 100% in 2050 and cut greenhouse gas emissions.

✅ 80% renewable electricity by 2030; 100% by 2050.

✅ 45% GHG cut by 2030; 80% by 2050.

✅ Utility procurement authority for clean capacity and energy.

 

The winds of change have shifted and are blowing Northward, as Maine’s Governor, Janet T. Mills, has put forth an act establishing a Climate Council to guide the state’s consumption to 80% renewable electricity in 2030 and 100% by 2050, echoing New York's Green New Deal ambitions underway.

The act, LR 2478 (pdf), also sets a goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 45% in 2030 and 80% by 2050. The document will be submitted to the state Legislature for consideration.

The commission would have the authority to direct investor owned transmission and distribution utilities to run competitive procurement processes, and enter into long-term contracts for capacity resources, energy resources, renewable energy credit contracts, and participate in regional programs, as these all lead toward the clean electricity and emissions-reducing goals that mirror California's 100% mandate debates today.

The Climate Council would convene industry working groups, including Scientific and Technical, Transportation, Coastal and Marine, Energy, and Building & Infrastructure working groups, plus others as needed, where examples like New Zealand's electricity transition could inform discussions.

Membership within the council would include two members of the State Senate, two members of the House, a tribal representative, many department commissioners (Education, Defense, Transportation, etc.), multiple directors, business representatives, environmental non-profit members, and climate science and resilience representatives as well.

The council would update the Maine State Climate Plan every four years, and solicit input from the public and report out progress on its goals every two years, similar to planning underway in Minnesota's carbon-free plan framework. The first Climate Action Plan would be submitted to the legislature by December 1, 2020.

Specifically, the responsibilities of the Scientific and Technical Subcommittee were laid out. The group would be scheduled to meet at least every six months, beginning no later than October 1, 2019. The group would be tasked with reviewing existing scientific literature, including net-zero electricity pathways research, to use it as guidance, recognizing gaps in the state’s knowledge, and guiding outside experts to ascertain this knowledge.  The group would consider ocean acidification, and climate change effects on the state’s species; establish science-based sea-level rise projections for the state’s coastal regions by December 1, 2020; create a climate risk map for flooding and extreme weather events; and consider carbon sequestration via biomass growth.

The state’s largest power plants (above image), generate about 31% from gas, 28% from wood and 41% from hydro+wind. Already, the state has a very clean electricity profile, much like efforts to decarbonize Canada's power sector continue apace. Below, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) notes that 51% of electricity generation within the state comes from mostly wind+hydro, with a small touch from solar power. The state also gets 24% from wood and other biomass, which would lead some to argue that the state is already at 75% “renewable electricity”. The Governor’s document does reference wind power specifically as a renewable, however, no other specific electricity source. And there is much reference to forestry, agriculture, and logging – specifically noting carbon sequestration – but nothing regarding electricity.

The state’s final 25% of electricity mostly comes from natural gas, even as renewable electricity momentum builds across North America, with this author choosing to put “other” under the fossil percentage noted above.

 

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Four Major Types of Substation Integration Service Providers Account for More than $1 Billion in Annual Revenues

Substation Automation Services help electric utilities modernize through integration, EPC engineering, protective relaying, communications and security, with CAPEX and OPEX insights and a growing global market for third-party providers worldwide rapidly.

 

Key Points

Engineering, integration, and EPC support modernizing utility substations with protection, control, and secure communications

✅ Third-party engineering, EPC, and OEM services for utilities

✅ Integration of multi-vendor devices and platforms

✅ Focus on relays, communications, security, CAPEX-OPEX

 

The Newton-Evans Research Company has released additional findings from its newly published four volume research series entitled: The World Market for Substation Automation and Integration Programs in Electric Utilities: 2017-2020.

This report series has observed four major types of professional third-party service providers that assist electric utilities with substation modernization. These firms range from (1) smaller local or regional engineering consultancies with substation engineering resources to (2) major global participants in EPC work, to (3) the engineering services units of manufacturers of substation devices and platforms, to (4) substation integration specialist firms that source and integrate devices from multiple manufacturers for utility and industrial clients, and often provide substation automation training to support implementation.

2016 Global Share Estimates for Professional Services Providers of Electric Power Substation Integration and Automation Activities

The North American market report (Volume One) includes survey participation from 65 large and midsize US and Canadian electric utilities while the international market report (Volume Two) includes survey participation from 32 unique utilities in 20 countries around the world. In addition to the baseline survey questions, the report includes 2017 substation survey findings on four additional specific topics: communications issues; protective relaying trends; security topics and the CAPEX/OPEX outlook for substation modernization.

Volume Three is the detailed market synopsis and global outlook for substation automation and integration:

Section One of the report provides top-level views of substation modernization, automation & integration and the emerging digital grid landscape, and a narrative market synopsis.

Section Two provides mid-year 2017 estimates of population, electric power generation capacity, transmission substations, including the 2 GW UK substation commissioning as a benchmark, and primary MV distribution substations for more than 120 countries in eight world regions. Information on substation related expenditures and spending for protection and control for each major world region and several major countries is also provided.

Section Three provides information on NGO funding resources for substation modernization among developing nations.

Section Four of this report volume includes North American market share estimates for 2016 shipments of many substation automation-related devices and equipment, such as trends in the digital relay market for utilities.

The Supplier Profiles report (Volume Four) provides descriptive information on the substation modernization offerings of more than 90 product and services companies, covering leading players in the transformer market as well.

 

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Why power companies should be investing in carbon-free electricity

Noncarbon Electricity Investment Strategy helps utilities hedge policy uncertainty, carbon tax risks, and emissions limits by scaling wind, solar, and CCS, avoiding stranded assets while balancing costs, reliability, and climate policy over decades.

 

Key Points

A strategy for utilities to invest 20-30 percent of capacity in low carbon sources to hedge emissions and carbon risks.

✅ Hedges future carbon tax and emissions limits

✅ Targets 20-30 percent of new generation from clean sources

✅ Reduces stranded asset risk and builds renewables capacity

 

When utility executives make decisions about building new power plants, a lot rides on their choices. Depending on their size and type, new generating facilities cost hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars. They typically will run for 40 or more years — 10 U.S. presidential terms. Much can change during that time.

Today one of the biggest dilemmas that regulators and electricity industry planners face is predicting how strict future limits on greenhouse gas emissions will be. Future policies will affect the profitability of today’s investments. For example, if the United States adopts a carbon tax 10 years from now, it could make power plants that burn fossil fuels less profitable, or even insolvent.

These investment choices also affect consumers. In South Carolina, utilities were allowed to charge their customers higher rates to cover construction costs for two new nuclear reactors, which have now been abandoned because of construction delays and weak electricity demand. Looking forward, if utilities are reliant on coal plants instead of solar and wind, it will be much harder and more expensive for them to meet future emissions targets, even as New Zealand's electrification push accelerates abroad. They will pass the costs of complying with these targets on to customers in the form of higher electricity prices.

With so much uncertainty about future policy, how much should we be investing in noncarbon electricity generation in the next decade? In a recent study, we proposed optimal near-term electricity investment strategies to hedge against risks and manage inherent uncertainties about the future.

We found that for a broad range of assumptions, 20 to 30 percent of new generation in the coming decade should be from noncarbon sources such as wind and solar energy across markets. For most U.S. electricity providers, this strategy would mean increasing their investments in noncarbon power sources, regardless of the current administration’s position on climate change.

Many noncarbon electricity sources — including wind, solar, nuclear power and coal or natural gas with carbon capture and storage — are more expensive than conventional coal and natural gas plants. Even wind power, which is often mentioned as competitive, is actually more costly when accounting for costs such as backup generation and energy storage to ensure that power is available when wind output is low.

Over the past decade, federal tax incentives and state policies designed to promote clean electricity sources spurred many utilities to invest in noncarbon sources. Now the Trump administration is shifting federal policy back toward promoting fossil fuels. But it can still make economic sense for power companies to invest in more expensive noncarbon technologies if we consider the potential impact of future policies.

How much should companies invest to hedge against the possibility of future greenhouse gas limits? On one hand, if they invest too much in noncarbon generation and the federal government adopts only weak climate policies throughout the investment period, utilities will overspend on expensive energy sources.

On the other hand, if they invest too little in noncarbon generation and future administrations adopt stringent emissions targets, utilities will have to replace high-carbon energy sources with cleaner substitutes, which could be extremely costly.

 

Economic modeling with uncertainty

We conducted a quantitative analysis to determine how to balance these two concerns and find an optimal investment strategy given uncertainty about future emissions limits. This is a core choice that power companies have to make when they decide what kinds of plants to build.

First we developed a computational model that represents the sectors of the U.S. economy, including electric power. Then we embedded it within a computer program that evaluates decisions in the electric power sector under policy uncertainty.

The model explores different electric power investment decisions under a wide range of future emissions limits with different probabilities of being implemented. For each decision/policy combination, it computes and compares economy-wide costs over two investment periods extending from 2015 to 2030.

We looked at costs across the economy because emissions policies impose costs on consumers and producers as well as power companies. For example, they may lead to higher electricity, fuel or product prices. By seeking to minimize economy-wide costs, our model identifies the investment decision that produces the greatest overall benefits to society.

 

More investments in clean generation make economic sense

We found that for a broad range of assumptions, the optimal investment strategy for the coming decade is for 20 to 30 percent of new generation to be from noncarbon sources. Our model identified this as the best level because it best positions the United States to meet a wide range of possible future policies at a low cost to the economy.

From 2005-2015, we calculated that about 19 percent of the new generation that came online was from noncarbon sources. Our findings indicate that power companies should put a larger share of their money into noncarbon investments in the coming decade.

While increasing noncarbon investments from a 19 percent share to a 20 to 30 percent share of new generation may seem like a modest change, it actually requires a considerable increase in noncarbon investment dollars. This is especially true since power companies will need to replace dozens of aging coal-fired power plants that are expected to be retired.

In general, society will bear greater costs if power companies underinvest in noncarbon technologies than if they overinvest. If utilities build too much noncarbon generation but end up not needing it to meet emissions limits, they can and will still use it fully. Sunshine and wind are free, so generators can produce electricity from these sources with low operating costs.

In contrast, if the United States adopts strict emissions limits within a decade or two, they could prevent carbon-intensive generation built today from being used. Those plants would become “stranded assets” — investments that are obsolete far earlier than expected, and are a drain on the economy.

Investing early in noncarbon technologies has another benefit: It helps develop the capacity and infrastructure needed to quickly expand noncarbon generation. This would allow energy companies to comply with future emissions policies at lower costs.

 

Seeing beyond one president

The Trump administration is working to roll back Obama-era climate policies such as the Clean Power Plan, and to implement policies that favor fossil generation. But these initiatives should alter the optimal strategy that we have proposed for power companies only if corporate leaders expect Trump’s policies to persist over the 40 years or more that these new generating plants can be expected to run.

Energy executives would need to be extremely confident that, despite investor pressure from shareholders, the United States will adopt only weak climate policies, or none at all, into future decades in order to see cutting investments in noncarbon generation as an optimal near-term strategy. Instead, they may well expect that the United States will eventually rejoin worldwide efforts to slow the pace of climate change and adopt strict emissions limits.

In that case, they should allocate their investments so that at least 20 to 30 percent of new generation over the next decade comes from noncarbon sources. Sustaining and increasing noncarbon investments in the coming decade is not just good for the environment — it’s also a smart business strategy that is good for the economy.

 

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Canada could be electric, connected and clean — if it chooses

Canada Clean Energy Transition accelerates via carbon pricing, renewables, EV incentives, energy efficiency upgrades, smart grids, interprovincial transmission, and innovation in hydro, wind, solar, and storage to cut emissions and power sustainable growth.

 

Key Points

Canada Clean Energy Transition is a shift to renewables, EVs and efficiency powered by smart policy and innovation.

✅ Carbon pricing and EV incentives accelerate adoption

✅ Grid upgrades, storage, and transmission expand renewables

✅ Industry efficiency and smart tech cut energy waste

 

So, how do we get there?

We're already on our way.

The final weeks of 2016 delivered some progress, as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and premiers of 11 of the 13 provinces and territories negotiated a new national climate plan. The deal is a game changer. It marks the moment that Canada stopped arguing about whether to tackle climate change and started figuring out how we're going to get there.

We can each be part of the solution by reducing the amount of energy we use, making sure our homes and workplaces are well insulated and choosing energy efficient appliances. When the time comes to upgrade our cars, washing machines and refrigerators, we can take advantage of rebates that cut the cost of electric models. In our homes, we can install smart technology — like automated thermostats — to cut down on energy waste and reduce power bills.

Even industries that use a lot of energy, like mining and manufacturing, could become leaders in sustainability. It would mean investing in energy saving technology, making their operations more efficient and running conveyor belts, robots and other equipment off locally produced renewable electricity.

Meanwhile, laboratories and factories in Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia are making breakthroughs in areas like energy storage, while renewable energy growth in the Prairie Provinces gathers momentum, which will make it possible to access clean power even when the sun isn't shining and the wind isn't blowing.

Liberal leader Justin Trudeau holds a copy of his environmental platform after announcing details of it at Jericho Beach Park in Vancouver, B.C., on Monday June 29, 2015. (Darryl Dyck/Canadian Press)

The scale and speed of Canada's transition to clean energy depends on provincial and federal policies that do things like tax carbon pollution, build interprovincial electricity transmission lines, invest in renewable energy and grid modernization projects that strengthen the system, and increase incentives for electric vehicles. 

Of course, even the best policies won't produce lasting results unless Canadians fight for them and take ownership for our role in the energy transition. Global momentum toward clean energy may be "irreversible," as former U.S. President Barack Obama recently wrote in the journal Science — but it's up to us whether Canada catches that wave or misses out.

Fortunately, clean energy has always been part of Canada's DNA.

We can learn from the past

In remote corners of the newly minted Dominion of Canada, rushing rivers turned the waterwheels that powered the lumber mills that built the places we inhabit today. The first electric lights were switched on in Winnipeg shortly after Confederation. By the turn of the 20th century, hydro power was lighting up towns and cities from coast to coast.  

Our country is home to some of the world's best clean energy resources, and experts note that zero-emissions electricity by 2035 is possible given our strengths, and fully two-thirds of our power is generated from renewable sources like hydro, wind and solar.

Looking to our heritage, we can make clean growth the next chapter in Canada's history

Recent commitments to phase out coal and invest in clean energy infrastructure mean the share of renewable power in Canada's energy mix is poised to grow. The global shift from fossil fuels to clean energy is opening up huge opportunities and Canada's opportunity in the global electricity market is growing as the country has the expertise to deliver solutions around the world.

Looking to our heritage, we can make clean growth the next chapter in Canada's history — building a nation that's electric, connected and on a practical, profitable path to 2035 zero-emission power for households and industry, stronger than ever.

 

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Canada’s Opportunity in the Global Electricity Market

Canada Clean Electricity Exports leverage hydroelectric power, energy storage, and transmission interconnections to meet rising IEA-forecast demand, support electrification, decarbonize grids, and attract green finance with stable policy and advanced technology.

 

Key Points

Canada's cross-border power sales from hydro and renewables, enabled by storage, transmission, and supportive policy.

✅ Hydro leads generation; expand transmission interties to the US

✅ Deploy storage to balance wind and solar variability

✅ Streamline regulation and green finance to scale exports

 

As global electricity demand continues to surge, Canada finds itself uniquely positioned to capitalize on this expanding market by choosing an electric, connected and clean pathway that scales with demand. With its vast natural resources, advanced technology, and stable political environment, Canada can play a crucial role in meeting the world’s energy needs while also advancing its own economic interests.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has projected that global electricity demand will grow significantly over the next decade, driven by factors such as population growth, urbanization, and the increasing electrification of various sectors, including transportation and industry. This presents a golden opportunity for Canada to bolster its energy security as it boasts an abundance of renewable energy sources, particularly hydroelectric power. Currently, hydroelectricity accounts for about 60% of Canada’s total electricity generation, making it one of the largest producers of this clean energy source in the world.

The growing emphasis on renewable energy aligns perfectly with Canada’s strengths, with the Prairie Provinces emerging as leaders in new wind and solar capacity across the country. As countries worldwide strive to reduce their carbon footprints and transition to greener energy solutions, Canada’s clean energy resources can be harnessed not only to meet domestic needs but also to export electricity to neighboring countries and beyond. The U.S., for instance, is already a significant market for Canadian electricity, with interconnections facilitating the flow of power across borders. Expanding these connections and investing in infrastructure could further increase Canada’s electricity exports.

Moreover, advancements in energy storage technology present another avenue for Canada to enhance its role in the global electricity market. With the rise of intermittent energy sources like wind and solar, the ability to store excess electricity generated during peak production times becomes essential. Canada’s expertise in technology and innovation positions it well to develop and deploy energy storage solutions that can stabilize the grid through grid modernization projects and ensure a reliable supply of electricity.

Additionally, Canada’s commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and combating climate change aligns with the global shift towards sustainable energy. By investing in renewable energy projects and supporting research and development, Canada can not only meet its climate targets, including zero-emissions electricity by 2035, but also attract international investment. Green financing initiatives are becoming increasingly popular, and Canada can leverage its reputation as a leader in environmental stewardship to tap into this growing market.

However, to fully realize these opportunities, Canada must address some key challenges. Regulatory hurdles, infrastructure limitations, and the need for a coordinated national energy strategy are critical issues that must be navigated. Streamlining regulations and fostering collaboration between federal and provincial governments will be essential in creating a conducive environment for investment in renewable energy projects.

Furthermore, public acceptance and community engagement are vital components of developing new energy projects, especially where solar power adoption lags and outreach is needed. Ensuring that local communities benefit from these initiatives—whether through job creation, economic investment, or shared revenues—will help garner support and facilitate smoother project implementation.

In addition to domestic efforts, Canada should also position itself as a global leader in energy diplomacy. By collaborating with other nations to share best practices, technologies, and resources, Canada can strengthen its influence in international energy discussions. Engaging in multilateral initiatives aimed at addressing energy poverty and promoting sustainable development will not only enhance Canada’s standing on the world stage but also open doors for Canadian companies to expand their reach.

In conclusion, as the global demand for electricity rises, Canada stands at a crossroads, with a tremendous opportunity to lead in the clean energy sector. By leveraging its natural resources, investing in technology, and fostering international partnerships, Canada can not only meet its energy needs but also pursue zero-emission electricity by 2035 while positioning itself as a key player in the global electricity market. The path forward will require strategic planning, investment, and collaboration, but the potential rewards are significant—both for Canada and the planet.

 

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US Government Condemns Russia for Power Grid Hacking

Russian Cyberattacks on U.S. Critical Infrastructure target energy grids, nuclear plants, water systems, and aviation, DHS and FBI warn, using spear phishing, malware, and ICS/SCADA intrusion to gain footholds for potential sabotage and disruption.

 

Key Points

State-backed hacks targeting U.S. energy, nuclear, water and aviation via phishing and ICS access for sabotage.

✅ DHS and FBI detail multi-stage intrusion since 2016

✅ Targets include energy, nuclear, water, aviation, manufacturing

✅ TTPs: spear phishing, lateral movement, ICS reconnaissance

 

Russia is attacking the U.S. energy grid, with reported power plant breaches unfolding alongside attacks on nuclear facilities, water processing plants, aviation systems, and other critical infrastructure that millions of Americans rely on, according to a new joint analysis by the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security.

In an unprecedented alert, the US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and FBI have warned of persistent attacks by Russian government hackers on critical US government sectors, including energy, nuclear, commercial facilities, water, aviation and manufacturing.

The alert details numerous attempts extending back to March 2016 when Russian cyber operatives targeted US government and infrastructure.

The DHS and FBI said: “DHS and FBI characterise this activity as a multi-stage intrusion campaign by Russian government cyber-actors who targeted small commercial facilities’ networks, where they staged malware, conducted spear phishing and gained remote access into energy sector networks.

“After obtaining access, the Russian government cyber-actors conducted network reconnaissance, moved laterally and collected information pertaining to industrial control systems.”

The Trump administration has accused Russia of engineering a series of cyberattacks that targeted American and European nuclear power plants and water and electric systems, and could have sabotaged or shut power plants off at will.

#google#

United States officials and private security firms saw the attacks as a signal by Moscow that it could disrupt the West’s critical facilities in the event of a conflict.

They said the strikes accelerated in late 2015, at the same time the Russian interference in the American election was underway. The attackers had compromised some operators in North America and Europe by spring 2017, after President Trump was inaugurated.

In the following months, according to the DHS/FBI report, Russian hackers made their way to machines with access to utility control rooms and critical control systems at power plants that were not identified. The hackers never went so far as to sabotage or shut down the computer systems that guide the operations of the plants.

Still, new computer screenshots released by the Department of Homeland Security have made clear that Russian state hackers had the foothold they would have needed to manipulate or shut down power plants.

“We now have evidence they’re sitting on the machines, connected to industrial control infrastructure, that allow them to effectively turn the power off or effect sabotage,” said Eric Chien, a security technology director at Symantec, a digital security firm.

“From what we can see, they were there. They have the ability to shut the power off. All that’s missing is some political motivation,” Mr. Chien said.

American intelligence agencies were aware of the attacks for the past year and a half, and the Department of Homeland Security and the F.B.I. first issued urgent warnings to utility companies in June, 2017. Both DHS/FBI have now offered new details as the Trump administration imposed sanctions against Russian individuals and organizations it accused of election meddling and “malicious cyberattacks.”

It was the first time the administration officially named Russia as the perpetrator of the assaults. And it marked the third time in recent months that the White House, departing from its usual reluctance to publicly reveal intelligence, blamed foreign government forces for attacks on infrastructure in the United States.

In December, the White House said North Korea had carried out the so-called WannaCry attack that in May paralyzed the British health system and placed ransomware in computers in schools, businesses and homes across the world. Last month, it accused Russia of being behind the NotPetya attack against Ukraine last June, the largest in a series of cyberattacks on Ukraine to date, paralyzing the country’s government agencies and financial systems.

But the penalties have been light. So far, President Trump has said little to nothing about the Russian role in those attacks.

The groups that conducted the energy attacks, which are linked to Russian intelligence agencies, appear to be different from the two hacking groups that were involved in the election interference.

That would suggest that at least three separate Russian cyberoperations were underway simultaneously. One focused on stealing documents from the Democratic National Committee and other political groups. Another, by a St. Petersburg “troll farm” known as the Internet Research Agency, used social media to sow discord and division. A third effort sought to burrow into the infrastructure of American and European nations.

For years, American intelligence officials tracked a number of Russian state-sponsored hacking units as they successfully penetrated the computer networks of critical infrastructure operators across North America and Europe, including in Ukraine.

Some of the units worked inside Russia’s Federal Security Service, the K.G.B. successor known by its Russian acronym, F.S.B.; others were embedded in the Russian military intelligence agency, known as the G.R.U. Still others were made up of Russian contractors working at the behest of Moscow.

Russian cyberattacks surged last year, starting three months after Mr. Trump took office.

American officials and private cybersecurity experts uncovered a series of Russian attacks aimed at the energy, water and aviation sectors and critical manufacturing, including nuclear plants, in the United States and Europe. In its urgent report in June, the Department of Homeland Security and the F.B.I. notified operators about the attacks but stopped short of identifying Russia as the culprit.

By then, Russian spies had compromised the business networks of several American energy, water and nuclear plants, mapping out their corporate structures and computer networks.

They included that of the Wolf Creek Nuclear Operating Corporation, which runs a nuclear plant near Burlington, Kan. But in that case, and those of other nuclear operators, Russian hackers had not leapt from the company’s business networks into the nuclear plant controls.

Forensic analysis suggested that Russian spies were looking for inroads — although it was not clear whether the goal was to conduct espionage or sabotage, or to trigger an explosion of some kind.

In a report made public in October, Symantec noted that a Russian hacking unit “appears to be interested in both learning how energy facilities operate and also gaining access to operational systems themselves, to the extent that the group now potentially has the ability to sabotage or gain control of these systems should it decide to do so.”

The United States sometimes does the same thing. It bored deeply into Iran’s infrastructure before the 2015 nuclear accord, placing digital “implants” in systems that would enable it to bring down power grids, command-and-control systems and other infrastructure in case a conflict broke out. The operation was code-named “Nitro Zeus,” and its revelation made clear that getting into the critical infrastructure of adversaries is now a standard element of preparing for possible conflict.

 


Reconstructed screenshot fragments of a Human Machine Interface that the threat actors accessed, according to DHS


Sanctions Announced

The US treasury department has imposed sanctions on 19 Russian people and five groups, including Moscow’s intelligence services, for meddling in the US 2016 presidential election and other malicious cyberattacks.

Russia, for its part, has vowed to retaliate against the new sanctions.

The new sanctions focus on five Russian groups, including the Russian Federal Security Service, the country’s military intelligence apparatus, and the digital propaganda outfit called the Internet Research Agency, as well as 19 people, some of them named in the indictment related to election meddling released by special counsel Robert Mueller last month.

In announcing the sanctions, which will generally ban U.S. people and financial institutions from doing business with those people and groups, the Treasury Department pointed to alleged Russian election meddling, involvement in the infrastructure hacks, and the NotPetya malware, which the Treasury Department called “the most destructive and costly cyberattack in history.”

The new sanctions come amid ongoing criticism of the Trump administration’s reluctance to punish Russia for cyber and election meddling. Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) said that, ahead of the 2018 mid-term elections, the administration’s decision was long overdue but not enough. “Nearly all of the entities and individuals who were sanctioned today were either previously under sanction during the Obama Administration, or had already been charged with federal crimes by the Special Counsel,” Warner said.

 

Warning: The Russians Are Coming

In an updated warning to utility companies, DHS/FBI officials included a screenshot taken by Russian operatives that proved they could now gain access to their victims’ critical controls, prompting a renewed focus on protecting the U.S. power grid among operators.

American officials and security firms, including Symantec and CrowdStrike, believe that Russian attacks on the Ukrainian power grid in 2015 and 2016 that left more than 200,000 citizens there in the dark are an ominous sign of what the Russian cyberstrikes may portend in the United States and Europe in the event of escalating hostilities.

Private security firms have tracked the Russian government assaults on Western power and energy operators — conducted alternately by groups under the names Dragonfly campaigns alongside Energetic Bear and Berserk Bear — since 2011, when they first started targeting defense and aviation companies in the United States and Canada.

By 2013, researchers had tied the Russian hackers to hundreds of attacks on the U.S. power grid and oil and gas pipeline operators in the United States and Europe. Initially, the strikes appeared to be motivated by industrial espionage — a natural conclusion at the time, researchers said, given the importance of Russia’s oil and gas industry.

But by December 2015, the Russian hacks had taken an aggressive turn. The attacks were no longer aimed at intelligence gathering, but at potentially sabotaging or shutting down plant operations.

At Symantec, researchers discovered that Russian hackers had begun taking screenshots of the machinery used in energy and nuclear plants, and stealing detailed descriptions of how they operated — suggesting they were conducting reconnaissance for a future attack.

Eventhough the US government enacted sanctions, cybersecurity experts are still questioning where the Russian attacks could lead, given that the United States was sure to respond in kind.

“Russia certainly has the technical capability to do damage, as it demonstrated in the Ukraine,” said Eric Cornelius, a cybersecurity expert at Cylance, a private security firm, who previously assessed critical infrastructure threats for the Department of Homeland Security during the Obama administration.

“It is unclear what their perceived benefit would be from causing damage on U.S. soil, especially given the retaliation it would provoke,” Mr. Cornelius said.

Though a major step toward deterrence, publicly naming countries accused of cyberattacks still is unlikely to shame them into stopping. The United States is struggling to come up with proportionate responses to the wide variety of cyberespionage, vandalism and outright attacks.

Lt. Gen. Paul Nakasone, who has been nominated as director of the National Security Agency and commander of United States Cyber Command, the military’s cyberunit, said during his recent Senate confirmation hearing, that countries attacking the United States so far have little to worry about.

“I would say right now they do not think much will happen to them,” General Nakasone said. He later added, “They don’t fear us.”

 

 

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