Europe confident of hitting 2020 renewable targets

EU Renewable Energy Targets 2020: member states' forecasts, national action plans, cooperation mechanisms, grid interconnectors, and offshore wind indicate progress on renewables share, with Germany and Spain set to exceed goals while others plan imports.

Most countries in the European Union are confident that they will reach their renewable energy targets by 2020, according to national forecast documents submitted to the EU.

To date, 20 member states have submitted forecast documents that indicate where the countries stand in regard to achieving the EU's stated goals, including the EU green energy target of generating 20% of its electricity from renewable sources by 2020. The forecast documents come six months before each country has to publish national renewable energy action plans, with an early look at solar and wind plans now public, which are due by the end of June. These plans will outline how each country is progressing in reaching its renewable energy goals, as well the actions each country will take in the coming decade, with some scenarios pointing to an all-renewables Europe by 2050 as a long-term possibility.

The forecast documents show whether a country has potential excess production or demand for renewable sources on top of existing power generation sources, suggesting the EU could surpass the 20% goal overall by 2020, depending on cooperation mechanisms.

Countries that have issued national forecast documents include Spain, Italy, Germany, the Netherlands, Denmark, Ireland and Sweden among others. Most countries are optimistic about achieving their targets, and in many cases EU wind power dwarfs other renewables across the bloc, while some, including Spain and Germany, believe they will exceed their own renewable targets by 2020.

"Germany will reach its national target of an 18% share of energy from renewable sources in gross final energy consumption by 2020 by using its own potential and measures," stated the German forecast. "Germany therefore does not have to rely on flexible cooperation mechanisms for target achievement. According to current estimates for the development of renewables between 2010 and 2020, Germany will probably exceed its 18% target for 2020 and reach a share of 18.7%."

According to Spain: "An initial estimate of the foreseeable trend in renewable energies in Spain up to 2020... is that the share of energy from renewable sources in Spain's gross final consumption of energy will rise from 10.5% in 2008 to 22.7% in 2020, compared with a target of 20% for Spain in 2020. As an intermediate estimate, it is forecast that the share of energy from renewable sources will be 15.5% in 2012 (compared with the guideline figure of 11.0% predicted in the indicative trajectory) and 18.8% in 2016 (compared with the 13.8% predicted in the indicative trajectory)."

However, some countries have forecast that they may need help from other nations in achieving their renewable energy targets.

"Belgium intends to largely meet within its borders the 13% target share of electricity from renewable sources in the gross final energy consumption by 2020," said Belgium's forecast. "However, Belgium does not exclude the possibility to use the cooperation mechanisms."

While many countries are optimistic, some expressed concerns that the electricity grids interconnecting power from renewable sources within the EU are not sufficient. Ireland's forecast stated: "Ireland notes in particular its significant offshore resources (ocean and offshore wind), which hold Irish green electricity export potential: however constraints and costs associated with domestic deep reinforcement of grid infrastructure, electricity interconnectors and offshore grid development will have to be appropriately addressed in order for such export potential to be harnessed."

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