REC upbeat on solar market

By Reuters


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Norwegian solar equipment maker REC said demand for its products was strong and its key owner made clear REC shares were not for sale for now, lifting the stock to a three-month high.

Chief Executive Ole Enger added that REC still expected prices for its products to decline in 2011, but said the fall would "perhaps not be as big as previously expected."

Shares in REC were up 2.18 percent at 19.67 crowns — the highest level since October 11 and outperforming a 0.5 percent rise in the Oslo bourse's index.

"As far as the market is concerned, we have seen a very strong Q4 and demand has continued in Q1," Enger told a renewable energy conference on Oslo.

Einar Kilde Evensen, a DnB NOR markets analyst, said Enger's "confident statements" helped lift REC shares.

"I am happy to hear, as are investors, that prices are falling at a slightly slower rate than some had expected," said Evensen. "Mr. Enger is a very cautious man, so I think it's fair to believe him."

The latest stock price rise follows a 4.5 percent hike after Norwegian conglomerate Orkla, which owns 40 percent of REC, agreed to sell the silicon operations of its Elkem unit to China National BlueStar for $2 billion.

Analysts said the Elkem deal removes pressure on Orkla to sell its REC holding to relieve debt. Orkla board chairman Stein Erik Hagen said REC "is no longer on our sale list," newspaper VG reported.

Orkla's CEO told Reuters that REC's share price was too low to sell and that it would develop the solar company over the short-term.

REC said in October it expected strong demand in late 2010 and early 2011, with global demand for solar energy expected to range from 14 to 16 gigawatts in 2011 — roughly the same as REC's view for 2010 global demand of 15 GW.

REC is due to report fourth-quarter earnings on February 9.

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New Electricity Auctions Will Drive Down Costs for Ontario's Consumers

IESO Capacity Auctions will competitively procure resources for Ontario electricity needs, boosting reliability and resource adequacy through market-based bidding, enabling demand response, energy storage, and flexible supply to meet changing load and regional grid conditions.

 

Key Points

A competitive, technology-neutral auction buys capacity at lowest cost to keep Ontario's grid reliable and flexible.

✅ Market-based procurement reduces system costs.

✅ Enables demand response, storage, and hybrid resources.

✅ Increases flexibility and regional reliability in Ontario.

 

The Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) is introducing changes to Ontario's electricity system that will help save Ontarians about $3.4 billion over a 10-year period. The changes include holding annual capacity auctions to acquire electricity resources at lowest cost that can be called upon when and where they are needed to meet Ontario electricity needs. 

Today's announcement marks the release of a high level design for future auctions, with changes for electricity consumers expected as the first is set to be held in late 2022.

"These auctions will specify how much electricity we need, and introduce a competitive process to determine who can meet that need. It's a competition among all eligible resources, and it's the Ontario consumer, including industrial electricity ratepayers, who benefits through lower costs and a more flexible system better able to respond to changing demand and supply conditions," says IESO President and CEO Peter Gregg.

In the past decade, electricity supply was typically acquired through very prescriptive means with defined targets for specific types of resources such as wind and solar, and secured through 20-year contracts.  While these long-term commitments helped Ontario transform its generation fleet over the last decade, electricity cost allocation also played a role, but longer term contracts provide limited flexibility in dealing with unexpected changes in the power system. 

"Imagine signing a 20-year contract for your cable TV service. In five years' time, electricity rates could be lower, new competitors may have entered the market, or entirely new and innovative platforms and services like Netflix may have emerged. You miss out on opportunities for improvement by being locked-in," says Gregg.

Provincial electricity demand has traditionally fluctuated over time due to factors like economic growth, conservation and the introduction of generating resources on local distribution systems, with occasional issues such as phantom demand affecting customers' costs as well. Technological changes are adding another layer of uncertainty to future demand as electric vehicles, energy storage and low-cost solar panels become more common.

"Our planners do their best to forecast electricity demand, but the truth is there's no such thing as certainty in electricity planning. That's why flexibility is so important. We don't want Ontarians to have to pay more on the typical Ontario electricity bill for electricity resources than are needed to ensure a reliable power system that can continue to meet Ontario's needs," says IESO Vice President and COO Leonard Kula.

 

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Heating and Electricity Costs in Germany Set to Rise

Germany 2025 Energy Costs forecast electricity and heating price trends amid gas volatility, renewables expansion, grid upgrades, and policy subsidies, highlighting impacts on households, industries, efficiency measures, and the Energiewende transition dynamics.

 

Key Points

Electricity stabilizes, gas-driven heating stays high; renewables, subsidies, and efficiency measures moderate costs.

✅ Power prices stabilize above pre-crisis levels

✅ Gas volatility keeps heating bills elevated

✅ Subsidies and efficiency upgrades offset some costs

 

As Germany moves into 2025, the country is facing significant shifts in heating and electricity costs. With a variety of factors influencing energy prices, including geopolitical tensions, government policies, and the ongoing transition to renewable energy sources, consumers and businesses alike are bracing for potential changes in their energy bills. In this article, we will explore how heating and electricity costs are expected to evolve in Germany in the coming year and what that means for households and industries.

Energy Price Trends in Germany

In recent years, energy prices in Germany have experienced notable fluctuations, particularly due to the aftermath of the global energy crisis, which was exacerbated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This geopolitical shift disrupted gas supplies, which in turn affected electricity prices and strained local utilities across the country. Although the German government introduced measures to mitigate some of the price increases, many households have still felt the strain of higher energy costs.

For 2024, experts predict that electricity prices will likely stabilize but remain higher than pre-crisis levels. While electricity prices nearly doubled in 2022, they have gradually started to decline, and the market has adjusted to the new realities of energy supply and demand. Despite this, the cost of electricity is expected to stay elevated as Germany continues to phase out coal and nuclear energy while ramping up the use of renewable sources, which often require significant infrastructure investments.

Heating Costs: A Mixed Outlook

Heating costs in Germany are heavily influenced by natural gas prices, which have been volatile since the onset of the energy crisis. Gas prices, although lower than the peak levels seen in 2022, are still considerably higher than in the years before. This means that households relying on gas heating can expect to pay more for warmth in 2024 compared to previous years.

The government has implemented measures to cushion the impact of these increased costs, such as subsidies for vulnerable households and efforts to support energy efficiency upgrades. Despite these efforts, consumers will still feel the pinch, particularly in homes that use older, less efficient heating systems. The transition to more sustainable heating solutions, such as heat pumps, remains a key goal for the German government. However, the upfront cost of such systems can be a barrier for many households.

The Role of Renewable Energy and the Green Transition

Germany has set ambitious goals for its energy transition, known as the "Energiewende," which aims to reduce reliance on fossil fuels and increase the share of renewable energy sources in the national grid. In 2024, Germany is expected to see further increases in renewable energy generation, particularly from wind and solar power. While this transition is essential for reducing carbon emissions and improving long-term energy security, the shift comes with its own challenges already documented in EU electricity market trends reports.

One of the main factors influencing electricity costs in the short term is the intermittency of renewable energy sources. Wind and solar power are not always available when demand peaks, requiring backup power generation from fossil fuels or stored energy. Additionally, the infrastructure needed to accommodate a higher share of renewables, including grid upgrades and energy storage solutions, is costly and will likely contribute to rising electricity prices in the near term.

On a positive note, Germany's growing investment in renewable energy is expected to make the country less reliant on imported fossil fuels, particularly natural gas, which has been a major source of price volatility. Over time, as the share of renewables in the energy mix grows, the energy system should become more stable and less susceptible to geopolitical shocks, which could lead to more predictable and potentially lower energy costs in the long run.

Government Interventions and Subsidies

To help ease the burden on consumers, the German government has continued to implement various measures to support households and businesses. One of the key programs is the reduction in VAT (Value Added Tax) on electricity, which has been extended in some regions. This measure is designed to make electricity more affordable for all households, particularly those on fixed incomes facing EU energy inflation pressures that have hit the poorest hardest.

Moreover, the government has been providing financial incentives for households and businesses to invest in energy-efficient technologies, such as insulation and energy-saving heating systems, complementing the earlier 200 billion euro energy shield announced to buffer surging prices. These incentives are intended to reduce overall energy consumption, which could offset some of the rising costs.

The outlook for heating and electricity costs in Germany for 2024 is mixed, even as energy demand hit a historic low amid economic stagnation. While some relief from the extreme price spikes of 2022 may be felt, energy costs will still be higher than they were in previous years. Households relying on gas heating will likely see continued elevated costs, although those who invest in energy-efficient solutions or renewable heating technologies may be able to offset some of the increases. Similarly, electricity prices are expected to stabilize but remain high due to the country’s ongoing transition to renewable energy sources.

While the green transition is crucial for long-term sustainability, consumers must be prepared for potentially higher energy costs in the short term. Government subsidies and incentives will help alleviate some of the financial pressure, but households should consider strategies to reduce energy consumption, such as investing in more efficient heating systems or adopting renewable energy solutions like solar panels.

As Germany navigates these changes, the country’s energy future will undoubtedly be shaped by a delicate balance between environmental goals and the economic realities of transitioning to a greener energy system.

 

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Clean-energy generation powers economy, environment

Atlin Hydro and Transmission Project delivers First Nation-led clean energy via hydropower to the Yukon grid, replacing diesel, cutting emissions, and creating jobs, with a 69-kV line from Atlin, B.C., supplying about 35 GWh annually.

 

Key Points

A First Nation-led 8.5 MW hydropower and 69-kV line supplying clean energy to the Yukon, reducing diesel use.

✅ 8.5 MW capacity; ~35 GWh annually to Yukon grid

✅ 69-kV, 92 km line links Atlin to Jakes Corner

✅ Creates 176 construction jobs; cuts diesel and emissions

 

A First Nation-led clean-power generation project for British Columbia’s Northwest will provide a significant economic boost and good jobs for people in the area, as well as ongoing revenue from clean energy sold to the Yukon.

“This clean-energy project has the potential to be a win-win: creating opportunities for people, revenue for the community and cleaner air for everyone across the Northwest,” said Premier John Horgan. “That’s why our government is proud to be working in partnership with the Taku River Tlingit First Nation and other levels of government to make this promising project a reality. Together, we can build a stronger, cleaner future by producing more clean hydropower to replace fossil fuels – just as they have done here in Atlin.”

The Province is contributing $20 million toward a hydroelectric generation and transmission project being developed by the Taku River Tlingit First Nation (TRTFN) to replace diesel electricity generation in the Yukon, which is also supported by the Government of Yukon and the Government of Canada, and comes as BC Hydro demand fell during COVID-19 across the province.

“Renewable-energy projects are helping remote communities reduce the use of diesel for electricity generation, which reduces air pollution, improves environmental outcomes and creates local jobs,” said Bruce Ralston, Minister of Energy, Mines and Low Carbon Innovation. “This project will advance reconciliation with TRTFN, foster economic development in Atlin and support intergovernmental efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.”

TRTFN is based in Atlin with territory in B.C., the Yukon, and Alaska. TRTFN is an active participant in clean-energy development and, since 2009, has successfully replaced diesel-generated electricity in Atlin with a 2.1-megawatt (MW) hydro facility amid oversight issues such as BC Hydro misled regulator elsewhere in the province today.

TRTFN owns the Tlingit Homeland Energy Limited Partnership (THELP), which promotes economic development through clean energy. THELP plans to expand its hydro portfolio by constructing the Atlin Hydro and Transmission Project and selling electricity to the Yukon via a new transmission line, in a landscape shaped by T&D rates decisions in jurisdictions like Ontario for cost recovery.

The Government of Yukon is requiring its Yukon Energy Corporation (YEC) to generate 97% of its electricity from renewable resources by 2030. This project provides an opportunity for the Yukon government to reduce reliance on diesel generators and to meet future load growth, at a time when Manitoba Hydro's debt pressures highlight utility cost challenges.

The new transmission line between Atlin and the Yukon grid will include a fibre-optic data cable to support facility operations, with surplus capacity that can be used to bring high-speed internet connectivity to Atlin residents for the first time.

“Opportunities like this hydroelectricity project led by the Taku River Tlingit First Nation is a great example of identifying and then supporting First Nations-led clean-energy opportunities that will support resilient communities and provide clean economic opportunities in the region for years to come. We all have a responsibility to invest in projects that benefit our shared climate goals while advancing economic reconciliation.” said George Heyman, Minister of Environment and Climate Change Strategy.

“Thank you to the Government of British Columbia for investing in this important project, which will further strengthen the connection between the Yukon and Atlin. This ambitious initiative will expand renewable energy capacity in the North in partnership with the Taku River Tlingit First Nation while reducing the Yukon’s emissions and ensuring energy remains affordable for Yukoners.“ said Sandy Silver, Premier of Yukon.

“The Atlin Hydro Project represents an important step toward meeting the Yukon’s growing electricity needs and the renewable energy targets in the Our Clean Future strategy. Our government is proud to contribute to the development of this project and we thank the Government of British Columbia and all partners for their contributions and commitment to renewable energy initiatives. This project demonstrates what can be accomplished when communities, First Nations and federal, provincial and territorial governments come together to plan for a greener economy and future.” said John Streicker, Minister Responsible for the Yukon Development Corporation. 

“Atlin has enjoyed clean and renewable energy since 2009 because of our hydroelectric project. Over its lifespan, Atlin’s hydro opportunity will prevent more than one million tonnes of greenhouse gases from being created to power the southern Yukon. We are looking forward to the continuation of this project. Our collective dream is to meet our environmental and economic goals for the region and our local community within the next 10 years. We are so grateful to all our partners involved for their financial support, as we continue onward in creating an energy efficient and sustainable North.” said Charmaine Thom, Taku River Tlingit First Nation spokesperson.

Quick Facts:

  • The 8.5-MW project is expected to provide an average of 35 gigawatt hours of energy annually to the Yukon. To accomplish this, TRTFN plans to leverage the existing water storage capability of Surprise Lake, add new infrastructure, and send power 92 km north to Jakes Corner, Yukon, along a new 69-kilovolt transmission line.
  • The project is expected to cost $253 - 308.5 million, the higher number reflecting recently estimated impacts of inflation and supply chain cost escalation, alongside sector accounting concerns such as deferred BC Hydro costs noted in recent reports.
  • The project is expected to have a positive impact on local and provincial economic development in the form of, even as governance debates like Manitoba Hydro board changes draw attention elsewhere:
  • 176 full-time positions during construction;
  • six to eight full-time positions in operations and maintenance over 40 years; and
  • increased business for B.C. contractors.
  • Territorial and federal funders have committed $151.1 million to support the project, most recently the $32.2 million committed in the 2022 federal bdget.

 

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More pylons needed to ensure 'lights stay on' in Scotland, says renewables body

Scottish Renewable Grid Upgrades address outdated infrastructure, expanding transmission lines, pylons, and substations to move clean energy, meet rising electricity demand, and integrate onshore wind, offshore wind, and battery storage across Scotland.

 

Key Points

Planned transmission upgrades in Scotland to move clean power via new lines and substations for a low-carbon grid.

✅ Fivefold expansion of transmission lines by 2030

✅ Enables onshore and offshore wind integration

✅ New pylons, substations, and routes face local opposition

 

Renewable energy in Scotland is being held back by outdated grid infrastructure, industry leaders said, with projects stuck on hold underscoring their warning that new pylons and power lines are needed to "ensure our lights stay on".

Scottish Renewables said new infrastructure is required to transmit the electricity generated by green power sources and help develop "a clean energy future" informed by a broader green recovery agenda.

A new report from the organisation - which represents companies working across the renewables sector - makes the case for electricity infrastructure to be updated, aligning with global network priorities identified elsewhere.

But it comes as electricity firms looking to build new lines or pylons face protests, with groups such as the Strathpeffer and Contin Better Cable Route challenging power giant SSEN over the route chosen for a network of pylons that will run for about 100 miles from Spittal in Caithness to Beauly, near Inverness.

Scottish Renewables said it is "time to be upfront and honest" about the need for updated infrastructure.

It said previous work by the UK National Grid estimated "five times more transmission lines need to be built by 2030 than have been built in the past 30 years, at a cost of more than £50bn".

The Scottish Renewables report said: "Scotland is the UK's renewable energy powerhouse. Our winds, tides, rainfall and longer daylight hours already provide tens of thousands of jobs and billions of pounds of economic activity.

"But we're being held back from doing more by an electricity grid designed for fossil fuels almost a century ago, a challenge also seen in the Pacific Northwest today."

Investment in the UK transmission network has "remained flat, and even decreased since 2017", echoing stalled grid spending trends elsewhere, the report said.

It added: "We must build more power lines, pylons and substations to carry that cheap power to the people who need it - including to people in Scotland.

"Electricity demand is set to increase by 50% in the next decade and double by mid-century, so it's therefore wrong to say that Scottish households don't need more power lines, pylons and substations.

Renewable energy in Scotland is being held back by outdated grid infrastructure, industry leaders said, as they warned new pylons and power lines are needed to "ensure our lights stay on".

Scottish Renewables said new infrastructure is required to transmit the electricity generated by green power sources and help develop "a clean energy future".

A new report from the organisation - which represents companies working across the renewables sector - makes the case for electricity infrastructure to be updated.

But it comes as electricity firms looking to build new lines or pylons face protests, with groups such as the Strathpeffer and Contin Better Cable Route challenging power giant SSEN over the route chosen for a network of pylons that will run for about 100 miles from Spittal in Caithness to Beauly, near Inverness.

Scottish Renewables said it is "time to be upfront and honest" about the need for updated infrastructure.

It said previous work by the UK National Grid estimated "five times more transmission lines need to be built by 2030 than have been built in the past 30 years, at a cost of more than £50bn".

The Scottish Renewables report said: "Scotland is the UK's renewable energy powerhouse. Our winds, tides, rainfall and longer daylight hours already provide tens of thousands of jobs and billions of pounds of economic activity.

"But we're being held back from doing more by an electricity grid designed for fossil fuels almost a century ago."

Investment in the UK transmission network has "remained flat, and even decreased since 2017", the report said.

It added: "We must build more power lines, pylons and substations to carry that cheap power to the people who need it - including to people in Scotland.

"Electricity demand is set to increase by 50% in the next decade and double by mid-century, so it's therefore wrong to say that Scottish households don't need more power lines, pylons and substations.

"We need them to ensure our lights stay on, as excess solar can strain networks in the same way consumers elsewhere in the UK need them.

"With abundant natural resources, Scotland's home-grown renewables can be at the heart of delivering the clean energy needed to end our reliance on imported, expensive fossil fuel.

"To do this, we need a national electricity grid capable of transmitting more electricity where and when it is needed, echoing New Zealand's electricity debate as well."

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Nick Sharpe, director of communications and strategy at Scottish Renewables, said the current electricity network is "not fit for purpose".

He added: "Groups and individuals who object to the construction of power lines, pylons and substations largely do so because they do not like the way they look.

"By the end of this year, there will be just over 70 months left to achieve our targets of 11 gigawatts (GW) offshore and 12 GW onshore wind.

"To ensure we maximise the enormous socioeconomic benefits this will bring to local communities, we will need a grid fit for the 21st century."

 

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Ontario will refurbish Pickering B NGS

Pickering nuclear refurbishment will modernize Ontario's Candu reactors at Pickering B, sustaining 2,000 MW of clean electricity, aiding net-zero goals, and aligning with Ontario Power Generation plans and Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission reviews.

 

Key Points

An 11-year overhaul of Pickering B Candu reactors to extend life, keep 2,000 MW online, and back Ontario net-zero grid.

✅ 11-year project; 11,000 annual jobs; $19.4B GDP impact.

✅ Refurbishes four Pickering B Candu units; maintains 2,000 MW.

✅ Requires Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission license approvals.

 

The Ontario government has announced its intention to pursue a Pickering refurbishment at the venerable nuclear power station, which has been operational for over fifty years. This move could extend the facility's life by another 30 years.

This decision is timely, as Ontario anticipates a significant surge in electricity demand and a growing electricity supply gap in the forthcoming years. Additionally, all provinces are grappling with new federal mandates for clean electricity, necessitating future power plants to achieve net-zero carbon emissions.

Todd Smith, the Energy Minister, is expected to endorse Ontario Power Generation's proposal for the plant's overhaul, as per a preliminary version of a government press release.

The renovation will focus on four Candu reactors, known collectively as Pickering B, which were originally commissioned in the early 1980s. This upgrade is projected to continue delivering 2,000 megawatts of power, equivalent to the current output of these units.

According to the press release, the project will span 11 years, create approximately 11,000 annual jobs, and contribute $19.4 billion to Ontario's GDP. However, the total budget for the project remains unspecified.

The project follows the ongoing refurbishment of four units at the nearby Darlington nuclear station, which is more than halfway completed with a budget of $12.8 billion.

The proposal awaits the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission's approval, and officials face extension request timing considerations before key deadlines.

The Commission is also reviewing a prior request from OPG to extend the operational license of the existing Pickering B units until 2026. This extension would allow the plant to safely continue operating until the commencement of its renovation, pending approval.

 

Ontario's Ambitious Nuclear Strategy

The announcement regarding Pickering is part of Ontario's broader clean energy plan for an unprecedented expansion of nuclear power in Canada.

Last summer, the province announced its intention to nearly double the output at Bruce Power, currently the world's largest nuclear generating station.

Additionally, Ontario revealed SMR plans to construct three more alongside the existing project at Darlington. These reactors are expected to supply enough electricity to power around 1.2 million homes.

Discussions about revitalizing the Pickering facility began in 2022, after the station had been slated to close as planned amid debate, with Ontario Power Generation submitting a feasibility report to the government last summer.

The Ford government emphasized the necessity of this nuclear expansion to meet the increasing electricity demands anticipated from the auto sector's shift to electric vehicles, the steel industry's move away from coal-fired furnaces, and the growing population in Ontario.

Ontario's capability to attract major international car manufacturers like Volkswagen and Stellantis to produce electric vehicles and batteries is partly attributed to the fact that 90% of the province's electricity comes from non-fossil fuel sources.

 

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Net-zero roadmap can cut electricity costs by a third in Germany - Wartsila

Germany net-zero roadmap charts coal phase-out by 2030, rapid renewables buildout, energy storage, and hydrogen-ready gas engines to cut emissions and lower LCOE by 34%, unlocking a resilient, flexible, low-cost power system by 2040.

 

Key Points

Plan to phase out coal by 2030 and gas by 2040, scaling renewables, storage, and hydrogen to cut LCOE and emissions.

✅ Coal out by 2030; gas phased 2040 with hydrogen-ready engines

✅ Add 19 GW/yr renewables; 30 GW storage by 2040

✅ 34% lower LCOE, 23% fewer emissions vs slower path

 

Germany can achieve significant reductions in emissions and the cost of electricity by phasing out coal in 2030 under its coal phase-out plan but must have a clear plan to ramp up renewables and pivot to sustainable fuels in order to achieve net-zero, according to a new whitepaper from Wartsila.

The modelling, published in Wärtsilä new white paper ‘Achieving net-zero power system in Germany by 2040’, compares the current plan to phase out coal by 2030 and gas by 2045 with an accelerated plan, where gas is phased out by 2040. By accelerating the path to net-zero, Germany can unlock a 34% reduction in the levelised cost of energy, as well as a 23% reduction in the total emissions, or 562 million tonnes of carbon dioxide in real terms.

The modelling offers a clear, three-step roadmap to achieve net-zero: rapidly increase renewables, energy storage and begin future-proofing gas engines in this decade; phase out coal by 2030; and phase out gas by 2040, converting remaining engines to run on sustainable fuels.

The greatest rewards are available if Germany front-loads decarbonisation. This can be done by rapidly increasing renewable capacity, adding 19 GW of wind and solar PV capacity per year. It must also add a total of 30GW of energy storage by 2040.

Håkan Agnevall, President and CEO of Wärtsilä Corporation said: “Germany stands on the precipice of a new, sustainable energy era. The new Federal Government has indicated its plans to consign coal to history by 2030. However, this is only step one. Our white paper demonstrates the need to implement a three-step roadmap to achieve net-zero. It is time to put a deadline on fossil fuels and create a clear plan to transition to sustainable fuels.”

While a rapid coal phase-out has been at the centre of recent climate policy debates, including the ongoing nuclear debate over Germany’s energy mix, the pathway to net-zero is less clear. Wärtsilä’s modelling shows that gas engines should be used to accelerate the transition by providing a short-term bridge to enable net zero and navigate the energy transition while balancing the intermittency of renewables until sustainable fuels are available at scale.

However, if Germany follows the slower pathway and reaches net-zero by 2045, it risks becoming reliant on gas as baseload power for much of the 2030s amid renewable expansion challenges that persist, potentially harming its ability to reach its climate goals. 

Creating the infrastructure to pivot to sustainable fuels is one of the greatest challenges facing the German system. The ability to convert existing capacity to run purely on hydrogen via hydrogen-ready power plants will be key to reaching net-zero by 2040 and unlocking the significant system-wide benefits on offer.

Jan Andersson, General Manager of Market Development in Germany, Wärtsilä Energy added: “To reach the 2040 target and unlock the greatest benefits, the most important thing that Germany can do is build renewables now. 19 GW is an ambitious target, but Germany can do it. History shows us that Germany has been able to achieve high levels of renewable buildout in previous years. It must now reach those levels consistently.

“Creating a clear plan which sets out the steps to net zero is essential. Renewable energy is inherently intermittent, so flexible energy capacity will play a vital role. While batteries provide effective short-term flexibility, gas is currently the only practical long-term option. If Germany is to unlock the greatest benefits from decarbonisation, it must have a clear plan to integrate sustainable fuel. From 2030, all new thermal capacity must run solely on hydrogen.”

Analysis of the last decade demonstrates that the rapid expansion of renewable energy is possible, and that renewables overtook coal and nuclear in generation. Previously, Germany has built large amounts of renewable capacity, including 8GW of solar PV in 2010 and 2011, 5.3 GW of onshore wind in 2017, and 2.5 GW of offshore wind in 2015.

The significant reductions in the cost of electricity demonstrated in the modelling are driven by the fact that renewables are far cheaper to run than coal or gas plants, even as coal still provides about a third of electricity in Germany. The initial capital investment is far outweighed by the ongoing operational expense of fossil fuel-based power.

As well as reducing emissions and costs, Germany’s rapid path to net-zero can also unlock a series of additional benefits. If coal is phased out by 2030 but capacity is not replaced by high levels of renewable energy, Germany risks becoming a significant energy importer, peaking at 162 TWh in 2035. The accelerated pathway would reduce imports by a third.

Likewise, more renewable energy will help to electrify district heating, meaning Germany can move away from carbon-intensive fuels sooner. If Germany follows the accelerated path, 57% of Germany’s heating could be electrified in 2045, compared to 10% under the slower plan.

Jan Andersson concluded: “The opportunities on offer are vast. Germany can provide the blueprint for net zero and galvanise an entire continent. Now is the time for the new government to seize the initiative.”

 

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