EIA Sept 2026 Outlook: Higher Electricity Demand and Texas Data Center Pause

September 2026 Electricity Outlook projects record U.S. electricity sales, driven by data center development and manufacturing, even as Texas pauses new data center grid connections. The forecast highlights load growth, generation shifts, and regional demand.

The September 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook projects record U.S. electricity use over the next two years. Total electricity sales are expected to reach 4,135 BkWh in 2026 and 4,211 BkWh in 2027, reflecting growth of almost 2% in 2026 from 2025 and nearly 2% additional growth in 2027, led by ongoing data center development and increased manufacturing activity.

Commercial sector electricity sales are forecast to rise 3.3% in 2026 and 2.7% in 2027, accounting for 63% and 56% of the overall annual increase, respectively. Industrial sector electricity sales are projected to increase 1.6% in 2026 and 2.6% in 2027, contributing a further 22% and 36% of the growth, respectively. For background on how large computing loads interact with transmission and distribution planning, see us data centers strain grid for additional context.

Although Texas has paused connecting new data center projects to the grid to facilitate a regulatory audit, the West South Central region still accounts for the largest share of nationwide growth in total electricity sales, approaching 20% of the increase in 2026 and nearly 40% in 2027. The latest monthly comparison also shows the West South Central electricity sales outlook revised to 761 BkWh in 2026 and 790 BkWh in 2027, down from 765 BkWh and 829 BkWh in the prior forecast. Related regional and large-load considerations are discussed in ercot texas crypto mining, which explores implications for system operations.

Generation is expected to grow in step with use. Natural gas-fired generation rises about 2% in 2026 and 1% in 2027, while coal-fired generation declines about 8% in 2026 and 6% in 2027. As new capacity comes online, solar generation is projected to expand 21% in 2026 and 18% in 2027, with wind generation up 7% and 5% over the same years. Across 2025-2027, the projected shares of U.S. electricity generation are: natural gas 40% each year; coal 17%, 16%, and 14%; nuclear 18% each year; conventional hydropower 6% each year; wind 11%, 11%, and 12%; solar 7%, 8%, and 9%; and other sources 1% each year. For additional perspective on how rapid load additions affect planning horizons and interconnection queues, see data center demand booms for additional context.

The outlook indicates that electricity consumption is reaching new highs primarily because of data center development and new or expanded manufacturing, with the commercial and industrial sectors together accounting for the vast majority of growth. Grid reliability concerns linked to large, fast-growing loads remain a focal point for operators and planners; see nerc level 3 alert on data centers grid reliability for additional context on operational readiness.

Model inputs for this forecast were finalized on September 3, 2026, and the current forecast is dated September 9, 2026. As utilities and grid operators translate these expectations into near-term resource and T&D decisions, near-term mitigation options such as storage and controls are receiving fresh attention; see ai data centers grid strain fast storage bridge for additional context on potential bridging strategies.

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