Solar equipment makers to shine in shakeout

Solar cell companies are in for a tough 2010 after Germany, which accounted for half of global solar demand last year, announced it would reduce solar subsidies — in some cases by 16 percent — much more and more quickly than many had expected.

The blow will be cushioned, however, by new government incentives that mean China — the worlds biggest producer of greenhouse gas — is poised to raise new solar capacity 20fold by as early as 2011 from just over 100MW in 2008.

Chinas boom and the need for cell and module makers to refresh their old and inefficient equipment will boost sales at companies such as Meyer Burger, Centrotherm, Roth & Rau and Manz.

We believe that the demand for solar equipment will see a recovery to modest growth in 2010 before seeing more substantial growth in 2011 as silicon production rises, new end markets develop, financing improves and older production lines are retired, analysts at Jefferies International Ltd wrote.

Unlike European cell and module makers facing tough competition from Asia, makers of machines are in a good strategic position, UBS analyst Patrick Hummel said.

Demand for new wafer/cell/module lines should be mainly driven by the lowcost Chinese producers, which have more funds available than the European competitors to invest in new production capacity, Hummel said.

China is trying to catch up in a global race to find alternatives to fossil fuels, which are blamed for carbon emissions contributing to global warming.

It already accounts for half the worlds cell production and new state financial incentives will also stoke solar demand from current low levels, with a knockon boost for equipment.

Equipment makers such as Manz, Roth & Rau and Meyer Burger made more than half of their 2009 revenues in Asia, a region that accounted for more than 71 percent of Centrotherms 2009 sales.

In contrast, cell and module makers have high sales exposure in Germany where incentive curbs are expected to at least dampen growth and are trying to increase their presence in overseas markets.

Manz, Roth & Rau, Centrotherm and Meyer Burger have outperformed cell and module makers such as QCells, Solon and SolarWorld by almost 9 percentage points since the beginning of the year.

But they still lag the FTSE cleantech index because share prices for German solar companies have suffered much more from planned changes in the law for solar incentives than those of their Chinese and U.S. peers.

Based on 12month forward earnings estimates, however, they trade consistently higher than the biggest cell makers.

According to Thomson Reuters StarMine, Manz, Centrotherm, Roth & Rau and Meyer Burger trade at an average of 22.4 times forward earnings, compared with an average of 15.1 for a group comprising cell makers First Solar, Suntech and Yingli as well as Germanys Centrosolar.

Richard Frei, an analyst with Zuercher Kantonalbank, said European equipment manufacturers had an advantage over Asian competitors thanks to more advanced technical knowhow, although their edge may diminish in the medium term. Cell and module makers are already struggling with fierce competition from Asia.

Im fundamentally more optimistic for suppliers than for modulemakers because for them its less important where capacity is being increased, whether its China, Germany or the United States, Frei said.

Meyer Burger CEO Peter Pauli told Reuters that he too is positive on Europe keeping the technological edge over Asia in the area of equipment, adding the companys sales in China would likely grow in the current year.

But China is in need of developing technology, which is happening in Europe.