TTC's hybrids not saving projected fuel amounts

By Globe and Mail


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Toronto's new and expensive hybrid buses are saving less than half the amount of diesel fuel the transit agency - and the governments that paid for them - claimed.

The Toronto Transit Commission and the federal, provincial and city governments said as recently as March that the new hybrid diesel-electric buses - which cost $734,000, compared with $500,000 for a conventional bus - were using 20 to 30 per cent less fuel.

But the TTC's current fuel-savings estimate, incorporated in its 2008 budget after tests on the new fleet last summer, is just 10 per cent - although officials expect that number to improve.

As many owners of Toyota's Prius and other hybrids have learned in recent years, the actual fuel efficiency achieved by vehicles that combine an internal combustion engine with an electric motor depends a great deal on how they are driven.

The TTC's chief general manager, Gary Webster, acknowledged in an interview that the March press release overstating the hybrid buses' fuel economy was a mistake. He said the 20- to 30-per-cent figure has been achieved with the same buses in New York, but not here.

"I think in hindsight we shouldn't have said 20 to 30 per cent," Mr. Webster said. "... Given the experience we went through last year, that document... was old news. We really should have talked about 10 to 20 per cent."

Both New York and Toronto are using Orion VII hybrid buses manufactured by Daimler-owned Orion Bus Industries in Mississauga.

The TTC says some of New York's buses are saving as much as 30 per cent on fuel because the hybrid technology is more efficient on that city's congested stop-and-go downtown routes, where the hybrid relies more on its electric motor and makes good use of the regenerative braking system that recharges its batteries.

On its more suburban, high-speed routes, where hybrids must rely more on their conventional diesel engines, New York has reported 10- to 20-per-cent reductions in fuel use, Mr. Webster said.

He said the TTC's fuel economy tests, conducted last summer on buses operating out of a North York bus garage, were poorer because Toronto's current crop of 275 hybrids are being used largely on suburban routes - with the buses also cranking their power-sucking air-conditioning systems.

Originally, the TTC had built a 20-per-cent fuel savings into its 2008 budget. But after its tests last summer, it revised its budget to account for just a 10-per-cent savings, costing it an extra $1.3-million in fuel.

As more of the hybrids arrive and begin service on Toronto's downtown routes, Mr. Webster said, fuel-efficiency results will go up, perhaps to more than 20 per cent on some of the city's most congested roads, meaning the fleet could average out in the high teens. Another test, monitoring the hybrid buses on more downtown routes, is set to begin soon.

By year's end, the TTC expects to have 564 hybrids in service, with half of its fleet made up of the new vehicles within five years.

Despite the disappointing fuel efficiency, Mr. Webster said the TTC had little choice but to go with the more expensive hybrid buses, because buying vehicles that use alternative fuels was a condition for millions in federal and provincial grants.

Ignoring the environmental benefits and looking at fuel economy alone, Mr. Webster said, the TTC never expected the savings to make up for the price premium.

The hybrids' fuel efficiency is actually the least of the TTC's financial worries, amid rising diesel costs. The transit agency expects to see its diesel bill soar from $65-million this year to $97-million next year as a fixed-price contract for diesel fuel expires, and may even consider a "fuel surcharge" to pass the cost onto riders.

Over the past few years, some owners of the Prius - the same car in which Mayor David Miller is chauffeured around - have complained that their cars do not achieve the fuel-economy numbers stated by U.S. and Canadian government testing.

In some cases, this has been blamed on rapid accelerations, air conditioning and extreme temperatures, which can dramatically alter fuel economy. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recently revised its fuel-efficiency testing model for all cars to better mirror actual driving conditions.

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Coal, Business Interests Support EPA in Legal Challenge to Affordable Clean Energy Rule

Affordable Clean Energy Rule Lawsuit pits EPA and coal industry allies against health groups over Clean Power Plan repeal, greenhouse gas emissions standards, climate change, public health, and state authority before the D.C. Circuit.

 

Key Points

A legal fight over EPA's ACE rule and CPP repeal, weighing emissions policy, state authority, climate, and public health.

✅ Challenges repeal of Clean Power Plan and adoption of ACE.

✅ EPA backed by coal, utilities; health groups seek stricter limits.

✅ D.C. Circuit to review emissions authority and state roles.

 

The largest trade association representing coal interests in the country has joined other business and electric utility groups in siding with the EPA in a lawsuit challenging the Trump administration's repeal of the Clean Power Plan.

The suit -- filed by the American Lung Association and the American Public Health Association -- seeks to force the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to drop a new rule-making process that critics claim would allow higher levels of greenhouse gas emissions, further contributing to the climate crisis and negatively impacting public health.

The new rule, which the Trump administration calls the "Affordable Clean Energy rule" (ACE), "would replace the 2015 Clean Power Plan, which EPA has proposed to repeal because it exceeded EPA's authority. The Clean Power Plan was stayed by the U.S. Supreme Court and has never gone into effect," according to an EPA statement.

EPA has also moved to rewrite wastewater limits for coal power plants, signaling a broader rollback of related environmental requirements.

America's Power -- formerly the American Coalition for Clean Coal Electricity -- the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the National Mining Association, and the National Rural Electric Cooperative Association have filed motions seeking to join the lawsuit. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit has not yet responded to the motion.

Separately, energy groups warned that President Trump and Energy Secretary Rick Perry were rushing major changes to electricity pricing that could disrupt markets.

"In this rule, the EPA has accomplished what eluded the prior administration: providing a clear, legal pathway to reduce emissions while preserving states' authority over their own grids," Hal Quinn, president and chief executive officer of the mining association, said when the new rule was released last month. "ACE replaces a proposal that was so extreme that the Supreme Court issued an unprecedented stay of the proposal, having recognized the economic havoc the mere suggestion of such overreach was causing in the nation's power grid."

Around the same time, a coal industry CEO blasted a federal agency's decision on the power grid as harmful to reliability.

The trade and business groups have argued that the Clean Power Plan, set by the Obama administration, was an overreach of federal power. Finalized in 2015, the plan was President Obama's signature policy on climate change, rooted in compliance with the Paris Climate Treaty. It would have set state limits on emissions from existing power plants but gave wide latitude for meeting goals, such as allowing plant operators to switch from coal to other electric generating sources to meet targets.

Former EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt argued that the rule exceeded federal statutory limits by imposing "outside the fence" regulations on coal-fired plants instead of regulating "inside the fence" operations that can improve efficiency.

The Clean Power Plan set a goal of reducing carbon emissions from power generators by 32 percent by the year 2030. An analysis from the Rhodium Group found that had states taken full advantage of the CPP's flexibility, emissions would have been reduced by as much as 72 million metric tons per year on average. Still, even absent federal mandates, the group noted that states are taking it upon themselves to enact emission-reducing plans based on market forces.

In its motion, America's Power argues the EPA "acknowledged that the [Best System of Emission Reduction] for a source category must be 'limited to measures that can be implemented ... by the sources themselves.'" If plants couldn't take action, compliance with the new rule would require the owners or operators to buy emission rate credits that would increase investment in electricity from gas-fired or renewable sources. The increase in operating costs plus federal efforts to shift power generation to other sources of energy, thereby increasing costs, would eventually force the coal-fired plants out of business.

In related proceedings, renewable energy advocates told FERC that a DOE proposal to subsidize coal and nuclear plants was unsupported by the record, highlighting concerns about market distortions.

"While we are confident that EPA will prevail in the courts, we also want to help EPA defend the new rule against others who prefer extreme regulation," said Michelle Bloodworth, president and CEO of America's Power.

"Extreme regulation" to one group is environmental and health protections to another, though.

Howard A. Learner, executive director of the Environmental Law & Policy Center of the Midwest, defended the Clean Power Plan in an opinion piece published in June.

"The Midwest still produces more electricity from coal plants than any other region of the country, and Midwesterners bear the full range of pollution harms to public health, the Great Lakes, and overall environmental quality," Learner wrote. "The new [Affordable Clean Energy] Rule is a misguided policy, moves our nation backward in solving climate change problems, and misses opportunities for economic growth and innovation in the global shift to renewable energy. If not reversed by the courts, as it should be, the next administration will have the challenge of doing the right thing for public health, the climate and our clean energy future."

When it initially filed its lawsuit against the Trump administration's Affordable Clean Energy Rule, the American Lung Association accused the EPA of "abdicat[ing] its legal duties and obligations to protect public health." It also referred to the new rule as "dangerous."

 

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National Grid warns of short supply of electricity over next few days

National Grid power supply warning highlights electricity shortage risks amid low wind output, generator outages, and cold weather, reducing capacity margins and grid stability; considering demand response and reserve power to avoid blackout risk.

 

Key Points

An alert that reduced capacity from low wind and outages requires actions to maintain UK grid stability.

✅ Low wind output and generator outages reduce capacity margins

✅ ESO exploring demand response and reserve generation options

✅ Aim: maintain grid stability and avoid blackout risk

 

National Grid has warned that Britain’s electricity will be in short supply over the next few days after a string of unplanned power plant outages and unusually low wind speeds this week, as cheap wind power wanes across the system.

The electricity system operator said it will take action to “make sure there is enough generation” during the cold weather spell, including virtual power plants and other demand-side measures, to prevent a second major blackout in as many years.

“Unusually low wind output coinciding with a number of generator outages means the cushion of spare capacity we operate the system with has been reduced,” the company told its Twitter followers.

“We’re exploring measures and actions to make sure there is enough generation available to increase our buffer of capacity.”

A spokeswoman for National Grid said the latest electricity supply squeeze was not expected to be as severe as recorded last month, following reports that the government’s emergency energy plan was not going ahead, and added that the company did not expect to issue an official warning in the next 24 hours.

“We’re monitoring how the situation develops,” she said.

The warning is the second from the electricity system operator in recent weeks. In mid-September the company issued an official warning to the electricity market as peak power prices climbed, that its ‘buffer’ of power reserves had fallen below 500MW and it may need to call on more power plants to help prevent a blackout. The notice was later withdrawn.

Concerns over National Grid’s electricity supplies have been relatively rare in recent years. It was forced in November 2015 to ask businesses to cut their demand as a “last resort” measure to keep the lights on after a string of coal plant breakdowns.

But since then, National Grid’s greater challenge has been an oversupply of electricity, partly due to record wind generation, which has threatened to overwhelm the grid during times of low electricity demand.

National Grid has already spent almost £1bn on extra measures to prevent blackouts over the first half of the year by paying generators to produce less electricity during the coronavirus lockdown, as daily demand fell.

The company paid wind farms to turn off, and EDF Energy to halve the nuclear generation from its Sizewell B nuclear plant, to avoid overwhelming the grid when demand for electricity fell by almost a quarter from last year.

The electricity supply squeeze comes a little over a year after National Grid left large parts of England and Wales without electricity after the biggest blackout in a decade left a million homes in the dark. National Grid blamed a lightning strike for the widespread power failure.

Similar supply strains have recently caused power cuts in China, underscoring how weather and generation mix can trigger blackouts.

 

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Kenney holds the power as electricity sector faces profound change

Alberta Electricity Market Reform reshapes policy under the UCP, weighing a capacity market versus energy-only design, AESO reliability rules, renewables targets, coal phase-out, carbon pricing, consumer rates, and investment certainty before AUC decisions.

 

Key Points

Alberta Electricity Market Reform is the UCP plan to reassess capacity vs energy-only, renewables, and carbon pricing.

✅ Reviews capacity market timeline and AESO procurement

✅ Alters subsidies for renewables; slows wind and solar growth

✅ Adjusts industrial carbon levy; audits Balancing Pool losses

 

Hearings kicked off this week into the future of the province’s electricity market design, amid an electricity market reshuffle pledged by the province, but a high-stakes decision about the industry’s fate — affecting billions of dollars in investment and consumer costs — won’t be made inside the meeting room of the Alberta Utilities Commission.

Instead, it will take place in the office of Jason Kenney, as the incoming premier prepares to pivot away from the seismic reforms to Alberta’s electricity sector introduced by the Notley government.

The United Conservative Party has promised to adopt market-based policies, reflecting changes to how Alberta produces and pays for power, that will reset how the sector operates, from its approach to renewable energy and carbon pricing to re-evaluating the planned transition to an electricity “capacity market.”

“Every ball in electricity is up in the air right now,” Vittoria Bellissimo, of the Industrial Power Consumers Association of Alberta, said Tuesday during a break in the commission hearings.

Industry players are uncertain how quickly the UCP will change direction on power policies, but there’s little doubt Kenney’s government will take a strikingly different approach to the sector that keeps the lights on in Alberta.

“There’s some things they are going to change that are going to impact the electricity industry significantly,” said Duane Reid-Carlson, chief executive of consultancy EDC Associates.

“But I don’t think it’s going to be upheaval. I think the new government will proceed with caution because electricity is the foundation of our economy.”

Alberta’s electricity market has been turned on its head in recent years due to the recession, power prices dropping to near two-decade lows and several transformative policies initiated by the NDP.

The Notley government’s climate plan included an accelerated phase-out of all coal-fired generation and set targets for more renewable energy.

The most significant, but least-understood, move has been the planned shift to an electricity capacity market in 2021.

Under the strategy, generators will no longer solely be paid for the power produced and sold into the market; they will also receive payments for having electricity capacity available to the grid on demand.

The change was recommended by the Alberta Electric System Operator (AESO) as a way to reduce price volatility and provide more reliability than the current energy-only market, which some argue needs more competition to deliver better outcomes.

The independent system operator and industry officials have spent more than two years planning the transition since the switch was announced in late 2016. Proposed rules for the new system, outlining market changes, are now being discussed at the Alberta Utilities Commission hearings.

However, there is no ironclad guarantee the system remake will go ahead following the UCP’s election victory last week — amid calls to scrap the overhaul from a Calgary retailer — it plans to study the issue further — while other substantive electricity changes are already in store.

The UCP has promised to end “costly subsidies” to renewable energy developments and abandon the NDP’s pledge to have such energy sources make up 30 per cent of all power generation by 2030.

It will remove the planned phase-out of coal-fired electricity generation, although federal regulations for a 2030 prohibition remain in place.

It will also ask the auditor general to conduct a special audit of the massive losses sustained by the province’s Balancing Pool due to power purchase arrangements being handed back to the agency three years ago.

While Kenney has pledged to cancel the provincewide carbon tax, a levy on large industrial greenhouse gas emitters (such has power plants) will still be charged, although at a reduced rate of $20 a tonne.

The biggest unknown remains the power market’s structure, which underpins how the entire system operates.

The UCP has promised to consult on the shift to the capacity market and report back to Albertans within 90 days.

The complex issue may sound like an eye-glazer, but it will have a profound effect on industry investment, as well as how much consumers pay on their monthly electricity bills.

A number of industry players worry the capacity market will lead AESO to procure more power than is necessary, foisting unnecessary costs onto all Albertans.

“I still have concerns for what the impact on consumers is going to be,” said energy market consultant Sheldon Fulton. “I’d love to see the capacity market go away.”

An analysis by EDC Associates found the transition to a capacity market will procure additional electricity before it’s needed, requiring consumers to pay up to 40 per cent more — an extra $1.4 billion — for power in 2021-22 than under the existing market structure.

“I don’t think there’s any prejudged outcome,” said Blake Shaffer, former head trader at TransAlta Corp. and a fellow-in-residence at the C.D. Howe Institute.

“But it really matters about getting this right.”

Evan Bahry, executive director of the Independent Power Producers Society of Alberta, said the fact the UCP’s review was confined to just 90 days is helpful, as it avoids throwing the entire industry into a prolonged period of uncertainty.

As for the greening of Alberta’s power grid, amid growing attention to clean grids and storage, the demise of the NDP’s Renewable Electricity Program will likely slow down the rapid pace of wind and solar development. But it’s unlikely to stop the growth trend as costs continue to fall for such developments.

“Renewables over the last number of years have evolved to the point that they make sense on a subsidy-free basis,” said Dan Balaban, CEO of Greengate Power Corp., which has developed 480 MW of wind power in Alberta and Ontario.

“There is a path to clean electricity ahead.”

Chris Varcoe is a Calgary Herald columnist.

 

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In Europe, A Push For Electricity To Solve The Climate Dilemma

EU Electrification Strategy 2050 outlines shifting transport, buildings, and industry to clean power, accelerating EV adoption, heat pumps, and direct electrification to meet targets, reduce emissions, and replace fossil fuels with renewables and low-carbon grids.

 

Key Points

EU plan to cut emissions 95% by 2050 by electrifying transport, buildings and industry with clean power.

✅ 60% of final energy from electricity by 2050

✅ EVs dominate transport; up to 63% electric share

✅ Heat pumps electrify buildings; industry to 50% direct

 

The European Union has one of the most ambitious carbon emission reduction goals under the global Paris Agreement on climate change – a 95% reduction by 2050.

It seems that everyone has an idea for how to get there. Some are pushing nuclear energy. Others are pushing for a complete phase-out of fossil fuels and a switch to renewables.

Today the European electricity industry came out with their own plan, amid expectations of greater electricity price volatility in Europe in the coming years. A study published today by Eurelectric, the trade body of the European power sector, concludes that the 2050 goal will not be possible without a major shift to electricity in transport, buildings and industry.

The study finds that for the EU to reach its 95% emissions reduction target, electricity needs to cover at least 60 percent of final energy consumption by 2050. This would require a 1.5 percent year-on-year growth of EU electricity use, with evidence that EVs could raise electricity demand significantly in other markets, while at the same time reducing the EU’s overall energy consumption by 1.3 percent per year.

#google#

Transport is one of the areas where electrification can deliver the most benefit, because an electric car causes far less carbon emissions than a conventional vehicle, with e-mobility emerging as a key driver of electricity demand even if that electricity is generated in a fossil fuel power plant.

In the most ambitious scenario presented by the study, up to 63 percent of total final energy consumption in transport will be electric by 2050, and some analyses suggest that mass adoption of electric cars could occur much sooner, further accelerating progress.

Building have big potential as well, according to the study, with 45 to 63 percent of buildings energy consumption could be electric in 2050 by converting to electric heat pumps. Industrial processes could technically be electrified with up to 50 percent direct electrification in 2050, according to the study. The relative competitiveness of electricity against other carbon-neutral fuels will be the critical driver for this shift, but grid carbon intensity differs across markets, such as where fossil fuels still supply a notable share of generation.

 

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Ontario Energy Board Sets New Electricity Rate Plan Prices and Support Program Thresholds

OESP Eligibility 2024 updates Ontario electricity affordability: TOU, Tiered, Ultra-Low-Overnight price plans, online bill calculator, higher income thresholds, monthly credits for low-income households, and a winter disconnection ban for residential customers.

 

Key Points

Raises income thresholds and credits to help low-income Ontarians cut electricity costs and choose suitable price plans.

✅ TOU, Tiered, and ULO price plans with online bill calculator

✅ Income eligibility thresholds raised up to 35% on March 1, 2024

✅ Winter disconnection ban for residences: Nov 15, 2023 to Apr 30, 2024

 

Residential, small business and farm customers can choose their price plan, either Time-Of-Use (TOU), Tiered or the ultra-low overnight rates price plan available to many customers. The OEB has an online bill calculator to help customers who are considering a switch in price plans and monitoring changes for electricity consumers this year. 

The Government of Ontario announced on Friday, October 19, 2023, that it is raising the income eligibility thresholds that enable Ontarians to qualify for the Ontario Electricity Support Program (OESP) by up to 35 percent. OESP is part of Ontario’s energy affordability framework and other support for electric bills meant to reduce the cost of electricity for low-income households by applying a monthly credit directly on to electricity bills.. The higher income eligibility thresholds will begin on March 1, 2024.

The amount of OESP bill credit is determined by the number of people living in a home and the household’s combined income, and can help offset typical bill increases many customers experience. The current income thresholds cap income eligibility at $28,000 for one-person households and $52,000 for five-person households, and temporary measures like the off-peak price freeze have also influenced bills in recent periods.

The new income eligibility thresholds, which will be in effect beginning March 1, 2024, will allow many more families to access the program as rates are about to change across Ontario.

In addition, under the OEB’s winter disconnection ban, which follows the Nov. 1 rate increase, electricity distributors cannot disconnect residential customers for non-payment from November 15, 2023, to April 30, 2024.

 

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Hydro-Quebec adopts a corporate structure designed to optimize the energy transition

Hydro-Québec Unified Corporate Structure advances the energy transition through integrated planning, strategy, infrastructure delivery, and customer operations, aligning generation, transmission, and distribution while ensuring non-discriminatory grid access and agile governance across assets and behind-the-meter technologies.

 

Key Points

A cross-functional model aligning strategy, planning, and operations to accelerate Quebec's low-carbon transition.

✅ Four groups: strategy, planning, infrastructure, operations.

✅ Ensures non-discriminatory transmission access compliance.

✅ No staff reductions; staged implementation from Feb 28.

 

As Hydro-Que9bec prepares to play a key role in the transition to a low-carbon economy, the complexity of the work to be done in the coming decade requires that it develop a global vision of its operations and assets, from the drop of water entering its turbines to the behind-the-meter technologies marketed by its subsidiary Hilo. This has prompted the company to implement a new corporate structure that will maximize cooperation and agility, including employee-led pandemic support that builds community trust, making it possible to bring about the energy transition efficiently with a view to supporting the realization of Quebecers’ collective aspirations.

Toward a single, unified Hydro

Hydro-Québec’s core mission revolves around four major functions that make up the company’s value chain, alongside policy choices like peak-rate relief during emergencies. These functions consist of:

  1. Developing corporate strategies based on current and future challenges and business opportunities
  2. Planning energy needs and effectively allocating financial capital, factoring in pandemic-related revenue impacts on demand and investment timing
  3. Designing and building the energy system’s multiple components
  4. Operating assets in an integrated fashion and providing the best customer experience by addressing customer choice and flexibility expectations across segments.

Accordingly, Hydro-Québec will henceforth comprise four groups respectively in charge of strategy and development; integrated energy needs planning; infrastructure and the energy system; and operations and customer experience, including billing accuracy concerns that can influence satisfaction. To enable the company to carry out its mission, these groups will be able to count on the support of other groups responsible for corporate functions.

Across Canada, leadership changes at other utilities highlight the need to rebuild ties with governments and investors, as seen with Hydro One's new CEO in Ontario.

“For over 20 years, Hydro-Québec has been operating in a vertical structure based on its main activities, namely power generation, transmission and distribution. This approach must now give way to one that provides a cross-functional perspective allowing us to take informed decisions in light of all our needs, as well as those of our customers and the society we have the privilege to serve,” explained Hydro-Québec’s President and Chief Executive Officer, Sophie Brochu.

In terms of gender parity, the management team continues to include several men and women, thus ensuring a diversity of viewpoints.

Hydro-Québec’s new structure complies with the regulatory requirements of the North American power markets, in particular with regard to the need to provide third parties with non-discriminatory access to the company’s transmission system. The frameworks in place ensure that certain functions remain separate and help coordinate responses to operational events such as urban distribution outages that challenge continuity of service.

These changes, which will be implemented gradually as of Monday, February 28, do not aim to achieve any staff reductions.

 

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