New coal plants cost up to $2.9 billion

By Associated Press


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Duke Energy said that the cost of a coalgasification power plant it is building in southwestern Indiana has risen to nearly $2.9 billion, or about twice the original estimate.

The details are part of Dukes filing asking the Indiana Utility Regulatory Commission to allow it to pass on the plants additional costs to its customers.

If regulators agree, it will boost the projects overall rate impact on Dukes average Indiana customer 3 percent to 19 percent. The increase would be fully phased in by 2013.

The plants estimated cost has grown steadily since it was announced in 2007, when Duke said the project likely would cost between $1.3 billion and $1.6 billion.

Environmental and government watchdog groups have sued to try to halt the plant, calling the project a huge waste of money that would be better spent on renewable energy such as wind farms and promoting energy efficiency.

Charlotte, North Carolinabased Duke said the estimated cost of the roughly 620megawatt plant — the first of its kind at such a scale — had risen $530 million, or 23 percent, since November largely because its design has grown more complex as construction has proceeded, requiring more materials.

Unfortunately, this evolution in scope and complexity makes an increase in the cost estimate impossible to avoid, said James Turner, president and chief operating officer of Duke Energys Franchised Electric & Gas businesses.

Duke spokeswoman Angeline Protogere said while theres no guarantee the cost wont go higher, the company is confident it can be completed for about the revised estimate.

Unlike traditional coalfired power plants that burn coal to produce electricity, the new plant will convert coal into a synthetic gas processed to remove some pollutants such as mercury and sulfur. The gas is then burned in a traditional turbine power plant to produce electricity.

Construction of the plant is about 35 percent completed at the site along the White River near Edwardsport, about 15 miles northeast of Vincennes. It will replace a 160megawatt coalfired plant Duke operates there.

When it goes online as projected in 2012 it will release an estimated 4 million tons of carbon dioxide annually.

Kerwin Olson, the program director for the Citizens Action Coalition of Indiana, said he expects the projects final cost to top $3 billion. But he said the price tag could grow even more if Congress acts to impose caps on carbon dioxide emissions linked to global warming.

If that happens and Duke decides to adapt the plant to capture some of its carbon dioxide, he said the projects price would spiral higher.

Despite Dukes public greenwashing in saying that this will be the countrys cleanest coal plant its not going to capture a single ounce of carbon dioxide — nor have they committed to doing that, Olson said.

The IURC already has given Duke approval to charge ratepayers $17 million to study the feasibility of capturing the plants carbon dioxide. The company had asked to pass onto its customers another $121 million for a geological study for underground carbon storage.

But Protogere said Duke scaled back that request to $42 million after failing to obtain Department of Energy funds for study. The request is pending before the IURC.

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Sustainable Marine now delivering electricity to Nova Scotia grid from tidal energy

Sustainable Marine tidal energy delivers in-stream power to Nova Scotia's grid from Grand Passage, proving low-impact, renewable generation and advancing a floating tidal array at FORCE and Minas Passage in the Bay of Fundy.

 

Key Points

The first in-stream tidal project supplying clean power to Nova Scotia's grid, proven at Grand Passage.

✅ First to deliver in-stream tidal power to Canada's grid

✅ Demonstration at Grand Passage informs FORCE deployments

✅ Low-impact design and environmental monitoring validated

 

Sustainable Marine has officially powered up its tidal energy operation in Canada and is delivering clean electricity to the power system in Nova Scotia, on the country’s Atlantic coast, as the province moves to increase wind and solar projects in the years ahead. The company’s system in Grand Passage is the first to deliver in-stream tidal power to the grid in Canada, following provincial approval to harness Bay of Fundy tides that is spurring further development.

The system start-up is the culmination of more than a decade of research, development and testing, including lessons from Scottish tidal projects in recent years and a powerful tidal turbine feeding onshore grids, managing the technical challenges associated with operating in highly energetic environments and proving the ultra-low environmental impact of the tidal technology.

Sustainable Marine is striving to deliver the world’s first floating tidal array at FORCE (Fundy Ocean Research Centre for Energy). This project will be delivered in phases, drawing upon the knowledge gained and lessons learned in Grand Passage, and insights from offshore wind pilots like France’s first offshore wind turbine in Europe. In the coming months the company will continue to operate the platform at its demonstration site at Grand Passage, gradually building up power production, while New York and New England clean energy demand continues to rise, to further prove the technology and environmental monitoring systems, before commencing deployments in the Minas Passage – renowned as the Everest of tidal energy.

The Bay of Fundy’s huge tidal energy resource contains more than four times the combined flow of every freshwater river in the world, with the potential to generate approximately 2,500 MW of green energy, underscoring why independent electricity planning will be important for integrating marine renewables.

 

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Investing in a new energy economy for Montana

Montana New Energy Economy integrates grid modernization, renewable energy, storage, and demand response to cut costs, create jobs, enable electric transportation, and reduce emissions through utility-scale efficiency, real-time markets, and distributed resources.

 

Key Points

Plan to modernize Montana's grid with renewables, storage and efficiency to lower costs, cut emissions and add jobs.

✅ Grid modernization enables real-time markets and demand response

✅ Utility-scale renewables paired with storage deliver firm power

✅ Efficiency and DERs cut peaks, costs, and pollution

 

Over the next decade, Montana ratepayers will likely invest over a billion dollars into what is now being called the new energy economy.

Not since Edison electrified a New York City neighborhood in 1882 have we had such an opportunity to rethink the way we commercially produce and consume electric energy.

Looking ahead, the modernization of Edison’s grid will lower the consumer costs, creating many thousands of permanent, well-paying jobs. It will prepare the grid for significant new loads like America going electric in transportation, and in doing so it will reduce a major source of air pollution known to directly threaten the core health of Montana and the planet.

Energy innovation makes our choices almost unrecognizable from the 1980s, when Montana last built a large, central-station power plant. Our future power plants will be smaller and more modular, efficient and less polluting — with some technologies approaching zero operating emissions.

The 21st Century grid will optimize how the supply and demand of electricity is managed across larger interconnected service areas. Utilities will interact more directly with their consumers, with utility trends guiding a new focus on providing a portfolio of energy services versus simply spinning an electric meter. Investments in utility-scale energy efficiency — LED streetlights, internet-connected thermostats, and tightening of commercial building envelopes among many — will allow consumers to directly save on their monthly bills, to improve their quality of life, and to help utilities reduce expensive and excessive peaks in demand.

The New Energy Economy will be built not of one single technology, but of many — distributed over a modernized grid across the West that approaches a real-time energy market, as provinces pursue market overhauls to adapt — connecting consumers, increasing competition, reducing cost and improving reliability.

Boldly leading the charge is a new and proven class of commercial generation powered by wind and solar energy, the latter of which employs advanced solid-state electronics, free fuel and no emissions or moving parts. Montana is blessed with wind and solar energy resources, so this is a Made-in-Montana energy choice. Note that these plants are typically paired with utility-scale energy storage investments — also an essential building block of the 21st century grid — to deliver firm, on-demand electric service.

Once considered new age and trendy, these production technologies are today competent and shovel-ready. Their adoption will build domestic energy independence. And, they are aggressively cost-competitive. For example, this year the company ISO New England — operator of a six-state grid covering all of New England — released an all-source bid for new production capacity. Unexpectedly, 100% of the winning bids were large solar electric power and storage projects, as coal and nuclear disruptions continue to shape markets. For the first time, no applications for fossil-fueled generation cleared auction.

By avoiding the burning of traditional fuels, the new energy technologies promise to offset and eventually eliminate the current 1,500 million metric tons of damaging greenhouse gases — one-quarter of the nation’s total — that are annually injected into the atmosphere by our nation’s current electric generation plants. The first step to solving the toughest and most expensive environmental issues of our day — be they costly wildfires or the regional drought that threatens Montana agriculture and outdoor recreation — is a thoughtful state energy policy, built around the new energy economy, that avoids pitfalls like the Wyoming clean energy bill now proposed.

Important potential investments not currently ready for prime time are also on the horizon, including small and highly efficient nuclear innovation in power plants — called small modular reactors (SMR) — designed to produce around-the-clock electric power with zero toxic emissions.

The nation’s first demonstration SMR plant is scheduled to be built sometime late this decade. Fingers are crossed for a good outcome. But until then, experts agree that big questions on the future commercial viability of nuclear remain unanswered: What will be SMR’s cost of electricity? Will it compete? Where will we source the refined fuel (most uranium is imported), and what will be the plan for its safe, permanent disposal?

So, what is Montana’s path forward? The short answer is: Hopefully, all of the above.

Key to Montana’s future investment success will be a respectful state planning process that learns from Texas grid improvements to bolster reliability.

Montanans deserve a smart and civil and bipartisan conversation to shape our new energy economy. There will be no need, nor place, for parties that barnstorm the state about "radical agendas" and partisan name calling – that just poisons the conversation, eliminates creative exchange and pulls us off task.

The task is to identify and vet good choices. It’s about permanently lowering energy costs to consumers. It’s about being business smart and business friendly. It’s about honoring the transition needs of our legacy energy communities. And, it’s about stewarding our world-class environment in earnest. That’s the job ahead.

 

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New Jersey, New York suspending utility shut-offs amid coronavirus pandemic

NY & NJ Utility Shutoff Moratorium suspends power, heat, and water disconnections amid COVID-19, as PSEG, Con Edison, Avangrid, and American Water pledge relief, supporting vulnerable customers with payment plans and health protections.

 

Key Points

A temporary pause on power, heat, and water shutoffs during COVID-19, as major utilities act to protect affected customers.

✅ Applies to power, gas, and water; restores prior shutoffs.

✅ Voluntary utility action; no PSC order required in NY.

✅ Initial moratorium runs through April; payment plans available.

 

New Jersey and New York utilities will keep the power, heat and water on for all customers in response to the coronavirus emergency, both states announced Friday.

Major utilities have agreed to suspend utility shut-offs, a particular concern for people who may be out of work and cannot afford to pay their bills.

“No utility can turn off service … if a person cannot pay their bill as a result of responding to this virus situation,” said New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo during a press conference Friday.

Utilities in New York have voluntarily agreed to this measure, according to the governor’s office, reflecting a broader state moratorium on disconnections during emergencies. No order from the Public Service Commission is expected.

With growing concerns about the economic impacts of a virtual shutdown of businesses and large events to curtail the spread of the novel coronavirus, advocates are increasingly pushing financial relief for families amid pandemic energy insecurity pressures. There’s a campaign in New York to suspend evictions and foreclosures, with growing political support. A similar call has gone out in New Jersey.

As the weather warms, shut-offs of electric and gas service due to nonpayment tend to pick up. If people are quarantined or out of work due to a widespread economic slowdown, some advocates say they shouldn’t have to worry about having the lights or heat turned off, especially as examples of unpaid utility bills straining cities have emerged elsewhere.

“We recognize that customers may experience financial difficulty as a result of the outbreak, whether they or a family member fall ill, are required to quarantine, or because their income is otherwise affected,” said Michael Jennings, a spokesperson for Public Service Enterprise Group — the parent company of Public Service Electric and Gas Company, New Jersey’s largest utility — in a statement.

The company’s policy will be in place at least through the end of April, as will Atlantic City Electric’s, and other utilities such as PG&E's pandemic response included a similar moratorium during the outbreak.

“Curtailing shut-offs is good public policy to make sure New Jersey residents aren’t left in the lurch as they’re dealing with coronavirus,” said Eric Miller, director of the Natural Resources Defense Council’s New Jersey energy policy program. “Not having a safe place to be because you don't have electricity, gas or water doesn’t do anything to help address the coronavirus.”

Water service has also drawn attention. Major cities, including Atlanta and Detroit, have suspended shut-offs to ensure residents have water to wash their hands, while Texas utilities waived fees to support customers as well. Seattle suspended water and electric shutoffs.

American Water, which operates in 16 states and has 650,000 customers in New Jersey and 350,000 in New York, has halted any shutoffs amid the coronavirus pandemic and will also restore service, and similarly Hydro One reconnected customers in Canada to maintain access. New York City does not shut off service for nonpayment, but does issue liens against people’s property.

“Everyone, regardless as to what industry, has to have a heightened responsibility that’s encompassed in compassion and take everything into consideration,” New Jersey state Sen. Teresa Ruiz (D-Essex) told POLITICO. “Now is not the time to be worrying about late payments or bills. We need to get past this, hopefully, to see what we’re facing and then deal with other things.”

PSEG Long Island, a subsidiary of PSEG that handles day-to-day operations for the Long Island Power Authority, was the first New York utility to announce it is also suspending shutoffs before the governor’s announcement. The moratorium will remain in place through the end of April.

Rich Berkley, with the Public Utility Law Project, which advocates for low-income customers in New York, said he’s been in touch with state officials to make sure the issue of utility bills is considered during the pandemic. New York already has requirements for utilities to offer deferred payment agreements before shutting off service, he noted.

“The state has to act to protect the most vulnerable households first,” he said. “To the extent that the state is declaring areas of emergency, this should be part of the remedies the state deploys.”

But he noted that not everyone will have trouble paying their utility bills if they’re under quarantine.

“Given the background of a collapsing stock and equity market, all of which matters to the utilities, and shifts in electricity demand during COVID-19, we have to be careful about blanket moratoriums [on shutoffs] in New York,” Berkley said.

Con Edison, the largest utility in the state serving most of New York City, had already informed the Department of Public Service it will suspend all shut-offs in the one-mile radius New Rochelle containment area, spokesperson Michael Clendenin said on Thursday. The moratorium on shutoffs now includes its entire New York City and Westchester County territory.

Avangrid, which owns New York State Electric & Gas and Rochester Gas & Electric, serving broad swathes of upstate New York, will suspend shut-offs due to unpaid bills for 30 days, spokesperson Michael Jamison said.

 

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California Legislators Prepare Vote to Crack Down on Utility Spending

California Utility Spending Bill scrutinizes how ratepayer funds are used by utilities, targeting lobbying, advertising, wildfire prevention cost pass-throughs, and CPUC oversight to curb high electricity bills and increase accountability and transparency statewide.

 

Key Points

Legislation restricting utilities from using ratepayer money for lobbying and ads, with stronger CPUC oversight.

✅ Bans ratepayer-funded lobbying and political advertising

✅ Expands prohibited utility communications and influence spending

✅ Aims to curb bills, boost transparency, and CPUC accountability

 

California's legislators are about to vote on a bill that would impose stricter regulations on how utility companies spend the money they collect from ratepayers. This legislation directly responds to the growing discontent among Californians who are already grappling with high electricity bills, as Californians ask why electricity prices are soaring amid wildfire prevention efforts.

Consumer rights groups have been vehemently critical of how utilities have been allocating customer funds, amid growing calls for regulatory action from state officials. They allege that a substantial portion of this money is being funnelled into lobbying efforts and advertising campaigns that yield no direct benefits for the customers themselves.

The proposed bill would significantly broaden the definition of what constitutes prohibited advertising and political influence activities on the part of utility companies, separate from income-based fixed electricity charges proposals that affect rate design. This would effectively restrict the ways in which utilities can utilize customer funds for such purposes.

While consumer advocacy groups have favored the legislation, it has drawn opposition from utility companies and some labor unions, as lawmakers weigh overturning income-based utility charges in parallel debates. Opponents contend that it would hinder utilities' ability to communicate effectively with their customers and advocate for their interests. Additionally, they express concerns that the bill could result in job losses within the utility sector.

The vote on the bill is expected to take place on Monday. The outcome of the vote is uncertain, but it is sure to be a closely watched development for Californians struggling with the burden of high electricity bills, with many wondering about major changes to their electric bills in the near term.

 

California's Electricity Rates: A Burden for Residents

A recent report by the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) revealed that the average Californian household spends a significantly higher amount on electricity compared to the national average. This disparity in electricity rates can be attributed to a number of factors, including the financial costs associated with wildfire prevention measures, investments in renewable energy infrastructure, and maintenance of aging electrical grids, even as the state considers revamping electricity rates to clean the grid.

 

Examples of Utility Company Spending that Raise Concerns

Consumer rights groups have specifically highlighted instances where utility companies have used customer money to fund lavish executive compensation packages, sponsor professional sports teams, and finance political campaigns. They argue that these expenditures do not provide any tangible benefits to ratepayers and should not be funded through customer bills.

 

The Need for Accountability and Prioritization

Proponents of the bill believe that the legislation is necessary to ensure that utility companies are held accountable for how they spend customer funds. They believe that the stricter regulations would compel utilities to prioritize investments that directly improve the quality and reliability of electricity services for Californians, alongside discussions of income-based flat-fee utility bills that could reshape rate structures.

The impending vote on the bill underscores the ongoing tension between the need for reliable electricity services and the desire to keep utility rates affordable for Californians. The outcome of the vote is likely to have a significant impact on how utility companies operate in the state and how much Californians pay for their electricity.

 

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Economic Crossroads: Bank Earnings, EV Tariffs, and Algoma Steel

Canada Economic Crossroads highlights bank earnings trends, interest rates, loan delinquencies, EV tariffs on Chinese imports, domestic manufacturing, Algoma Steel decarbonization, sustainability, and housing market risks shaping growth, investment, consumer prices, and climate policy.

 

Key Points

An overview of how bank earnings, EV tariffs, and Algoma Steel's transition shape Canada's economy.

✅ Higher rates lift margins but raise delinquencies and housing risks

✅ EV tariffs aid domestic makers but pressure consumer prices

✅ Algoma invests to decarbonize, boosting efficiency and compliance

 

In a complex economic landscape, recent developments have brought attention to several pivotal issues affecting Canada's business sector. The Globe and Mail’s latest report delves into three major topics: the latest bank earnings, the implications of new tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs), and Algoma Steel’s strategic maneuvers. These factors collectively paint a picture of the challenges and opportunities facing Canada's economy.

Bank Earnings Reflect Economic Uncertainty

The recent financial reports from major Canadian banks have revealed a mixed picture of the nation’s economic health. As the Globe and Mail reports, earnings results show robust performances in some areas while highlighting growing concerns in others. Banks have generally posted strong quarterly results, buoyed by higher interest rates which have improved their net interest margins. This uptick is largely attributed to the central bank's monetary policies aimed at combating inflation and stabilizing the economy.

However, the positive earnings are tempered by underlying economic uncertainties. Rising loan delinquencies and a slowing housing market are areas of concern. Increased interest rates, while beneficial for banks’ margins, have also led to higher borrowing costs for consumers and businesses. This dynamic has the potential to impact overall economic growth and consumer confidence.

Tariffs on Chinese EVs: A Strategic Shift

Another significant development is the imposition of new tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. This move is part of a broader strategy to protect domestic automotive industries and address trade imbalances, aligning with public support for tariffs in key sectors. The tariffs are expected to increase the cost of Chinese EVs in Canada, which could have several implications for the market.

On one hand, the tariffs might provide a temporary boost to Canadian and North American manufacturers by reducing competition from lower-priced Chinese imports. This protectionist measure could encourage investments in local production and innovation, mirroring tariff threats boosting support for energy projects in other sectors. However, the increased cost of Chinese EVs may also lead to higher prices for consumers, potentially slowing the adoption of electric vehicles—a critical goal in Canada’s climate strategy.

The tariffs come at a time when the Canadian government is keen on accelerating the transition to electric mobility to meet its environmental targets, even as a critical crunch in electrical supply raises questions about grid readiness. Balancing the protection of domestic industries with the broader goal of reducing emissions will be a significant challenge moving forward.

Algoma Steel’s Strategic Evolution

In the steel industry, Algoma Steel has been making headlines with its strategic initiatives aimed at transforming its operations, in a broader shift toward clean grids and industrial decarbonization. The Globe and Mail highlights Algoma Steel's efforts to modernize its production processes and shift towards more sustainable practices. This includes significant investments in technology and infrastructure to enhance production efficiency and reduce environmental impact.

Algoma's focus on reducing carbon emissions aligns with broader industry trends towards sustainability. The company’s efforts are part of a larger push within the steel sector to address climate change and meet regulatory requirements. As one of Canada’s leading steel producers, Algoma’s actions could set a precedent for the industry, showcasing how traditional manufacturing sectors can adapt to evolving environmental standards.

Implications and Future Outlook

The interplay of these developments reflects a period of significant transition for Canada's economy, shaped in part by U.S. policy where Biden is seen as better for Canada's energy sector by some analysts. For banks, the challenge will be to navigate the balance between profitability and potential risks from a changing economic environment. The new tariffs on Chinese EVs represent a strategic shift with mixed implications for the automotive market, potentially influencing both domestic production and consumer prices. Meanwhile, Algoma Steel’s push towards sustainability could serve as a model for other industries seeking to align with environmental goals.

As these issues unfold, stakeholders across sectors will need to stay informed and adaptable. For policymakers, the challenge will be to support domestic industries while fostering innovation and sustainability, including the dilemma over electricity rates and innovation they must weigh. For businesses, the focus will be on navigating financial pressures and leveraging opportunities for growth. Consumers, in turn, will face the impact of these developments in their daily lives, from the cost of borrowing to the price of electric vehicles.

In summary, Canada’s current economic landscape is characterized by a blend of financial resilience, strategic adjustments, and evolving industry practices, amid policy volatility such as a tariff threat delaying Quebec's green energy bill earlier this year. As the country navigates these crossroads, the outcomes of these developments will play a crucial role in shaping the future economic environment.

 

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Cheap oil contagion is clear and present danger to Canada

Canada Oil Recession Outlook analyzes the Russia-Saudi price war, OPEC discord, COVID-19 demand shock, WTI and WCS collapse, Alberta oilsands exposure, U.S. shale stress, and GDP risks from blockades and fiscal responses.

 

Key Points

An outlook on how the oil price war and COVID-19 demand shock could tip Canada into recession and strain producers.

✅ WTI and WCS prices plunge on OPEC-Russia discord

✅ Alberta oilsands face break-even pressure near 30 USD WTI

✅ RBC flags global recession; GDP hit from blockades, virus

 

A war between Russia and Saudi Arabia for market share for oil may have been triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic in China, but the oil price crash contagion that it will spread could have impacts that last longer than the virus.

The prospects for Canada are not good.

Plunging oil prices, reduced economic activity from virus containment, and the fallout from weeks of railway blockades over the Coastal GasLink pipeline all add up to “a one-two-three punch that I think is almost inevitably going to put Canada in a position where its growth has to be negative,” said Dan McTeague, a former Liberal MP and current president of Canadians for Affordable Energy. The situation “certainly has the makings” of a recession, said Ken Peacock, chief economist for the Business Council of British Columbia.

“At a minimum, it’s going to be very disruptive and we’re going to have maybe one negative quarter,” Peacock said. “Whether there’s a second one, where it gets labeled a recession, is a different question. But it’s going to generate some turmoil and challenges over the next two quarters – there’s no doubt about that.”

RBC Economics on March 13 announced it now predicts a global recession and cut its growth projections for Canada's economy in 2020 by half a per cent.

Oil price futures plunged 30% last week, dragging stock markets and currencies, including the Canadian dollar, down with them, even as a deep freeze strained U.S. energy systems. That drop came on top of a 17% decline in February, due to falling demand for oil due to the virus.

The latest price plunge – the worst since the 1991 Gulf War – was the result of Russia and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), led by Saudi Arabia, failing to agree on oil production cuts.

The COVID-19 outbreak in China – the world’s second-largest oil consumer – had resulted in a dramatic drop in oil demand in that country, and a sudden glut of oil, with the U.S. energy crisis affecting electricity, gas and EV markets.

OPEC has historically been able to moderate global oil prices by controlling output. But when Russia refused to co-operate with OPEC and agree to production cuts, Saudi Arabia’s state-owned company, Aramco, announced it plans to boost its oil output from 9.7 million barrels per day (bpd) to 12.3 million bpd in April.

In response to that announcement, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices dropped 18% to below US$34 per barrel while the Canadian Crude Index fell 24% to US$21. Western Canadian Select dropped 39% to US$15.73.

The effect on Alberta oilsands producers was severe and immediate. Cenovus Energy Inc. (TSX:CVE) saw roughly $2 billion in market cap erased on March 9, when its stock dropped by 52%, which came on top of a 12% drop March 6.

The company responded the very next day by announcing it would cut spending by 32% in 2020, suspend its oil-by-rail program and defer expansion projects.

MEG Energy Corp. (TSX:MEG), which suffered a 56% share price drop on March 9, also announced a 20% reduction in its 2020 capital spending plan.

Peter Tertzakian, chief economist for ARC Energy Research Institute, wrote last week that Russia’s plan is to try to hurt U.S. shale oil producers, who have more than doubled U.S. oil production over the past decade.

Anas Alhajji, a global oil analyst, expects that plan could work. Even before the oil price shock, he had predicted the great shale boom in the U.S. was coming to an end.

“Shale production will decline, and the myth of ‘explosive growth’ will end,” he told Business in Vancouver. “The impact is global and Canadian producers might suffer even more if the oil that Saudi Arabia sends to the U.S. is medium and heavy. This might last longer than what people think.”

The question for Alberta is how Canadian producers can continue to operate through a period of cheap oil. Alberta producers do not compete on the global market. They serve a niche market of U.S. heavy oil refiners, and Biden-era policy is seen as potentially more favourable for Canada’s energy sector than alternatives.

“On the positive side, the industry is battle-hardened,” Tertzakian wrote. “Over the past five years, innovative companies have already learned to endure some of the lowest prices in the world.”

But he added that they need WTI prices of US$30 per barrel just to break even.

“But that’s an average break-even threshold for an industry with a wide variation in costs. That means at that level about half the companies can’t pay their bills and half are treading water.”

Just prior to the oil price plunge, the International Energy Agency (IEA) updated its 2020 forecast for global oil consumption from an 825,000 bpd increase in oil consumption to a 90,000 bpd decrease, due to the COVID-19 virus and consequent economic contraction and reduction in travel.

The IEA predicts global oil demand won’t return to “normal” until the second half of 2020. But even if demand does return to pre-virus levels, that doesn’t mean oil prices will – not if Saudi Arabia can sustain increased oil production at low prices, and evolving clean grid priorities could influence the trajectory too.

The oil plunge was greeted in Alberta with alarm. Alberta Premier Jason Kenney warned Alberta is in “uncharted territory” as consumers are urged to lock in rates and said his government might have to review its balanced budget and resort to emergency deficit spending.

While British Columbians – who pay some of the highest gasoline prices in North America – will enjoy lower gasoline prices at a time when prices are usually starting a seasonal spike, B.C.’s economy could feel knock-on effects from a recession in Alberta.

“We sell a lot of inputs, do a lot of trade with Alberta, so it’s important for B.C., Alberta’s economic health,” Peacock said, “and recent tensions over electricity purchase talks underscore that.”

Last week, the Trudeau government announced $1 billion in emergency funding to cope with the virus and waived a one-week waiting period for unemployment insurance.

 

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