ERCOT considers request to raise rates

By Knight Ridder Tribune


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The Electric Reliability Council of Texas, which operates most of the state's power grid, could request a 34 percent hike in fees it charges wholesale power providers for 2009.

The higher fees, when passed along to consumers, could boost utility bills for the average household by about $9 a year. The money would go toward hiring staff and installing technology for a new grid system.

The Public Utility Commission must approve fee increases for ERCOT. A fee hike would require a formal rate case before the commission, giving Texans a chance to formally protest the fee. The PUC chairman has already expressed misgivings about higher costs.

"We have an obligation at the commission to scrub the numbers and ask hard questions," PUC chairman Barry Smitherman said of a potentially higher budget request.

Still, Mr. Smitherman agreed that ERCOT's shift to a new grid system is important to help Texans use energy more efficiently.

ERCOT posted information about potential fees on its Web site.

In the materials, ERCOT reminds the board, made up largely of utility industry managers, that "cost consciousness is key and ERCOT's ultimate constituency is the electric customer."

According to the materials, ERCOT is considering asking the commission to hike its fees to around 70 to 75 cents per megawatt hour from the current 56 cents.

The increase includes a larger budget to switch to a new grid system, fundamentally changing the way the grid operates. ERCOT plans to move from a regional system to a nodal system, made up of thousands of nodes that transmit information to the agency.

ERCOT and power companies can use the information collected at nodes to ease bottlenecks and to determine the best spots to build new power plants. The system could potentially ease power prices. Already ERCOT has said implementing the new system would cost $62 million more than expected, for a total price of $311.3 million. Part of the new fee would reflect that increase.

ERCOT would also seek more money to hire staff to manage the new system and to implement technology to support it, spokeswoman Dottie Roark said. She said the company's lease for its building will soon be up, so higher fees also reflect the various options ERCOT has for office space.

The fee proposal in the board materials is only preliminary, Ms. Roark said. ERCOT will come up with a firm budget in coming months and hopes to get board approval on May 20. The budget would then go to the PUC for final approval. The commission could deny the fee hike or alter it.

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BC Hydro cryptic about crypto mining electricity use

BC Hydro Crypto Mining Moratorium pauses high-load connection requests, as BCUC reviews electricity demand, gigawatt-hours and megawatt load forecasts, data center growth, and potential rate impacts on the power grid and industrial customers.

 

Key Points

A BC order pausing crypto mining connections while BC Hydro and BCUC assess load, grid impacts, and ratepayer risks.

✅ 18-month pause on new high-load crypto connections

✅ 1,403 MW in requests suspended; 273 MW existing or pending

✅ Seeks to manage demand, rates, and grid reliability

 

In its Nov. 1, 2022 load update briefing note to senior executives of the Crown corporation, BC Hydro shows that the entire large industrial sector accounted for 6,591 gigawatt-hours during the period – one percent less than forecast in the service plan.

BC Hydro censored load statistics about crypto mining, coal mining and chemicals from the briefing note, which was obtained under the freedom of information law and came amid scrutiny over B.C. electricity imports because it feared that disclosure would harm Crown corporation finances and third-party business interests.

Crypto mining requires high-powered computers to run and be cooled around the clock constantly. So much so that cabinet ordered the BC Utilities Commission (BCUC) last December to place an 18-month moratorium on crypto mining connection requests, while other jurisdictions, such as the N.B. Power crypto review, undertook similar pauses to assess impacts.


In a news release, the government said 21 projects seeking 1,403 megawatts were temporarily suspended. The government said that would be enough to power 570,000 homes or 2.1 million electric vehicles for a year.

A report issued by BC Hydro before Christmas said there were already 166 megawatts of power from operational projects at seven sites. Another six projects with 107 megawatts were nearing connection, bringing its total load to 273 megawatts.

Richard McCandless, a retired assistant deputy minister who analyzes the performance of BC Hydro and the Insurance Corp of British Columbia, said China's May 2021 ban on crypto mining had a major ripple effect on those seeking cheap and reliable power.

"When China cracked down, these guys fled to different areas," McCandless said in an interview. "So they took their computers and went somewhere else. Some wound up in B.C."

He said BC Hydro's secrecy about crypto loads appears rooted in the Crown corporation underestimating load demand, even as new generating stations were commissioned to bolster capacity.

"Crypto is up so dramatically; they didn't want to show that," McCandless said. "Maybe they didn't want to be seen as being asleep at the switch."

Indeed, BCUC's April 21 decision on BC Hydro's 2021 revenue forecasts through the 2025 fiscal year included BC Hydro's forecast increase for crypto and data centres of about 100 gigawatt-hours through fiscal 2024 before returning to 2021 levels by 2025. In addition, the BCUC document said that BC Hydro's December 2020 load forecast was lower than the previous one because of project cancellations and updated load requests, amid ongoing nuclear power debate in B.C.

"Given the segment's continued uncertainty and volatility, the forecast assumes these facilities are not long-lived," the BC Hydro application said.

A September 2022 report to the White House titled "Crypto-Assets in the United States" said increased electricity demand from crypto-asset mining could lead to rate increases.

"Crypto-asset mining in upstate New York increased annual household electric bills by [US]$82 and annual small business electric bills by [US]$164, with total net losses from local consumers and businesses estimated to be [US]$179 million from 2016-2018," the report said. The information mentioned Plattsburgh, New York's 18-month moratorium in 2018. Manitoba announced a similar suspension almost a month before B.C.

B.C.'s total core domestic load of 23,666 gigawatt-hours was two percent higher than the service plan amid BC Hydro call for power planning, with commercial and light industrial (9,198 gigawatt-hours) and residential (7,877 gigawatt-hours) being the top two customer segments.

"A cooler spring and warmer summer supported increased loads, as the Western Canada drought strained hydropower production regionally. However, warmer daytime temperatures in September impacted heating more than cooling," said the briefing note.

"Commercial and light industrial consumption benefited from warmer temperatures in August but has also been impacted to a lesser degree by the reduced heating load in the first three weeks of October."

Loads improved relative to 2021, but offices, retail businesses and restaurants remained below pre-pandemic levels. Education, recreation and hotel sectors were in line with pre-pandemic levels. Light industrial sector growth offset the declines.

For heavy industry, pulp and paper electricity use was 15 percent ahead of forecast, but wood manufacturing was 16 percent below forecast. The briefing note said oil and gas grew nine percent relative to the previous year but, alongside ongoing LNG power demand, fell nine percent below the service plan.

 

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Michigan Public Service Commission grants Consumers Energy request for more wind generation

Consumers Energy Wind Expansion gains MPSC approval in Michigan, adding up to 525 MW of wind power, including Gratiot Farms, while solar capacity requests face delays over cost projections under the renewable portfolio standard targets.

 

Key Points

A regulatory-approved plan enabling Consumers Energy to add 525 MW of wind while solar additions await cost review.

✅ MPSC approves up to 525 MW in new wind projects

✅ Gratiot Farms purchase allowed before May 1

✅ Solar request delayed over high cost projections

 

Consumers Energy Co.’s efforts to expand its renewable offerings gained some traction this week when the Michigan Public Service Commission (MPSC) approved a request for additional wind generation capacity.

Consumers had argued that both more wind and solar facilities are needed to meet the state’s renewable portfolio standard, which was expanded in 2016 to encompass 12.5 percent of the retail power of each Michigan electric provider. Those figures will continue to rise under the law through 2021 when the figure reaches 15 percent, alongside ongoing electricity market reforms discussions. However, Consumers’ request for additional solar facilities was delayed at this time due to what the Commission labeled unrealistically high-cost projections.

Consumers will be able to add as much as 525 megawatts of new wind projects amid a shifting wind market, including two proposed 175-megawatt wind projects slated to begin operation this year and next. Consumers has also been allowed to purchase the Gratiot Farms Wind Project before May 1.

The MPSC said a final determination would be made on Consumers’ solar requests during a decision in April. Consumers had sought an additional 100 megawatts of solar facilities, hoping to get them online sometime in 2024 and 2025.

 

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Feds "changing goalposts" with 2035 net-zero electricity grid target: Sask. premier

Canada Clean Electricity Regulations outline a 2035 net-zero grid target, driving decarbonization via wind, solar, hydro, SMRs, carbon capture, and efficiency, balancing reliability, affordability, and federal-provincial collaboration while phasing out coal and limiting fossil-fuel generation.

 

Key Points

Federal rules to cap CO2 from power plants and deliver a reliable, affordable net-zero grid by 2035.

✅ Applies to fossil-fired units; standards effective by Jan 1, 2035.

✅ Promotes wind, solar, hydro, SMRs, carbon capture, and efficiency.

✅ Balances reliability, affordability, and emissions cuts; ongoing consultation.

 

Saskatchewan’s premier said the federal government is “changing goalposts” with its proposed target for a net-zero electricity grid.

“We were looking at a net-zero plan in Saskatchewan and across Canada by the year 2050. That’s now been bumped to 2035. Well there are provinces that quite frankly aren’t going to achieve those types of targets by 2035,” Premier Scott Moe said Wednesday.

Ottawa proposed the Clean Electricity Regulations – formerly the Clean Electricity Standard – as part of its target for Canada to transition to net-zero emissions by 2050.

The regulations would help the country progress towards an updated proposed goal of a net-zero electricity grid by 2035.

“They’re un-consulted, notional targets that are put forward by the federal government without working with industries, provinces or anyone that’s generating electricity,” Moe said.

The Government of Canada was seeking feedback from stakeholders on the plan’s regulatory framework document earlier this year, up until August 2022.

“The clean electricity standard is something that’s still being consulted on and we certainly heard the views of Saskatchewan – not just Saskatchewan, many other provinces – and I think that’s something that’s being reflected on,” Jonathan Wilkinson, Canada’s minister of natural resources, said during an event near Regina Wednesday.

“We also recognize that the federal government has a role to play in helping provinces to make the kinds of changes that would need to be made in order to actually achieve a clean grid,” Wilkinson added.

The information received during the consultation will help inform the development of the proposed regulations, which are expected to be released before the end of the year, according to the federal government.


NET-ZERO ELECTRICITY GRID
The federal government said its Clean Electricity Regulations (CER) is part of a suite of measures, as the country moves towards a broad “decarbonization” of the economy, with Alberta's clean electricity path illustrating provincial approaches as well.

Net-zero emissions would mean Canada’s economy would either emit no greenhouse gas emissions or offset its emissions.

The plan encourages energy efficiency, abatement and non-emitting generation technologies such as carbon capture and storage and electricity generation options such as solar, wind, geothermal, small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs) and hydro, among others.

The government suggests consumer costs could be lowered by using some of these energy efficiency techniques, alongside demand management and a shift to lower-cost wind and solar power, echoing initiatives like the SaskPower 10% rebate aimed at affordability.

The CER focuses on three principles, each tied to affordability debates like the SaskPower rate hike in Saskatchewan:

 Maximize greenhouse gas reductions to achieve the 2035 target
 Ensure a reliable electrical grid to support Canadians and the economy
 Maintain electrical affordability

“Achieving a net-zero electricity supply is key to reaching Canada’s climate targets in two ways,” the government said in its proposed regulations.

“First, it will reduce [greenhouse gas] emissions from the production of electricity. Second, using clean electricity instead of fossil fuels in vehicles, heating and industry will reduce emissions from those sectors too.

The regulations would regulate carbon dioxide emissions from electricity generating units that combust any amount of fossil fuel, have a capacity above a small megawatt threshold and sell electricity onto a regulated electricity system.

New rules would also be implemented for the development of new electricity generation units firing fossil fuels in or after 2025 and existing units. All units would be subject to emission standards by Jan. 1, 2035, at the latest.

The federal government launched consultations on the proposed regulations in March 2022.

Canada also has a 2030 emissions reduction plan that works towards meeting its Paris Agreement target to reduce emissions by 40-45 per cent from 2005 levels by 2030. This plan includes regulations to phase out coal-fired electricity by 2030.


COLLABORATION
The province recently introduced the Saskatchewan First Act, in an attempt to confirm its own jurisdiction and sovereignty when it comes to natural resources.

The act would amend Saskatchewan’s constitution to exert exclusive legislative jurisdiction under the Constitution of Canada.

The province is seeking jurisdiction over the exploration of non-renewable resources, the development, conservation and management of non-renewable natural and forestry resources, and the operation of sites and facilities for the generation and production of electrical energy.

While the federal government and Saskatchewan have come head-to-head publicly over several policy concerns in the past year, both sides remain open to collaborating on issues surrounding natural resources.

“We do have provincial jurisdiction in the development of these natural resources. We’d like to work collaboratively with the federal government on developing some of the most sustainable potash, uranium, agri-food products in the world,” Moe said.

Minister Wilkinson noted that while both the federal and provincial governments aim to respect each other’s jurisdiction, there is often some overlap, particularly in the case of environmental and economic policies, with Alberta's electricity sector changes underscoring those tensions as well.

“My view is we should endeavour to try to figure out ways that we can work together, and to ensure that we’re actually making progress for Saskatchewanians and for Canadians,” Wilkinson said.

“I think that Canadians expect us to try to figure out ways to work together, and where there are some disputes that can’t get resolved, ultimately the Supreme Court will decide on the issue of jurisdiction as they did in the case on the price on pollution.”

Moe said Saskatchewan is always open to working with the federal government, but not at the expense of its “provincial, constitutional autonomy.”

 

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Current Model For Storing Nuclear Waste Is Incomplete

Nuclear Waste Corrosion accelerates as stainless steel, glass, and ceramics interact in aqueous conditions, driving localized corrosion in repositories like Yucca Mountain, according to Nature Materials research on high-level radioactive waste storage.

 

Key Points

Degradation of waste forms and canisters from water-driven chemistry, causing accelerated, localized corrosion in storage.

✅ Stainless steel-glass contact triggers severe localized attack

✅ Ceramics and steel co-corrosion observed under aqueous conditions

✅ Yucca Mountain-like chemistry accelerates waste form degradation

 

The materials the United States and other countries plan to use to store high-level nuclear waste, even as utilities expand carbon-free electricity portfolios, will likely degrade faster than anyone previously knew because of the way those materials interact, new research shows.

The findings, published today in the journal Nature Materials (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41563-019-0579-x), show that corrosion of nuclear waste storage materials accelerates because of changes in the chemistry of the nuclear waste solution, and because of the way the materials interact with one another.

"This indicates that the current models may not be sufficient to keep this waste safely stored," said Xiaolei Guo, lead author of the study and deputy director of Ohio State's Center for Performance and Design of Nuclear Waste Forms and Containers, part of the university's College of Engineering. "And it shows that we need to develop a new model for storing nuclear waste."

Beyond waste storage, options like carbon capture technologies are being explored to reduce atmospheric CO2 alongside nuclear energy.

The team's research focused on storage materials for high-level nuclear waste -- primarily defense waste, the legacy of past nuclear arms production. The waste is highly radioactive. While some types of the waste have half-lives of about 30 years, others -- for example, plutonium -- have a half-life that can be tens of thousands of years. The half-life of a radioactive element is the time needed for half of the material to decay.

The United States currently has no disposal site for that waste; according to the U.S. General Accountability Office, it is typically stored near the nuclear power plants where it is produced. A permanent site has been proposed for Yucca Mountain in Nevada, though plans have stalled. Countries around the world have debated the best way to deal with nuclear waste; only one, Finland, has started construction on a long-term repository for high-level nuclear waste.

But the long-term plan for high-level defense waste disposal and storage around the globe is largely the same, even as the U.S. works to sustain nuclear power for decarbonization efforts. It involves mixing the nuclear waste with other materials to form glass or ceramics, and then encasing those pieces of glass or ceramics -- now radioactive -- inside metallic canisters. The canisters then would be buried deep underground in a repository to isolate it.

At the generation level, regulators are advancing EPA power plant rules on carbon capture to curb emissions while nuclear waste strategies evolve.

In this study, the researchers found that when exposed to an aqueous environment, glass and ceramics interact with stainless steel to accelerate corrosion, especially of the glass and ceramic materials holding nuclear waste.

In parallel, the electrical grid's reliance on SF6 insulating gas has raised warming concerns across Europe.

The study qualitatively measured the difference between accelerated corrosion and natural corrosion of the storage materials. Guo called it "severe."

"In the real-life scenario, the glass or ceramic waste forms would be in close contact with stainless steel canisters. Under specific conditions, the corrosion of stainless steel will go crazy," he said. "It creates a super-aggressive environment that can corrode surrounding materials."

To analyze corrosion, the research team pressed glass or ceramic "waste forms" -- the shapes into which nuclear waste is encapsulated -- against stainless steel and immersed them in solutions for up to 30 days, under conditions that simulate those under Yucca Mountain, the proposed nuclear waste repository.

Those experiments showed that when glass and stainless steel were pressed against one another, stainless steel corrosion was "severe" and "localized," according to the study. The researchers also noted cracks and enhanced corrosion on the parts of the glass that had been in contact with stainless steel.

Part of the problem lies in the Periodic Table. Stainless steel is made primarily of iron mixed with other elements, including nickel and chromium. Iron has a chemical affinity for silicon, which is a key element of glass.

The experiments also showed that when ceramics -- another potential holder for nuclear waste -- were pressed against stainless steel under conditions that mimicked those beneath Yucca Mountain, both the ceramics and stainless steel corroded in a "severe localized" way.

Other Ohio State researchers involved in this study include Gopal Viswanathan, Tianshu Li and Gerald Frankel.

This work was funded in part by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science.

Meanwhile, U.S. monitoring shows potent greenhouse gas declines confirming the impact of control efforts across the energy sector.

 

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Opinion: The dilemma over electricity rates and innovation

Canadian Electricity Innovation drives a customer-centric, data-driven grid, integrating renewable energy, EVs, storage, and responsive loads to boost reliability, resilience, affordability, and sustainability while aligning regulators, utilities, and policy for decarbonization.

 

Key Points

A plan to modernize the grid, aligning utilities, regulators, and tech to deliver clean, reliable, affordable power.

✅ Smart grid supports EVs, storage, solar, and responsive loads.

✅ Innovation funding and regulatory alignment cut long-term costs.

✅ Resilience rises against extreme weather and outage risks.

 

For more than 100 years, Canadian electricity companies had a very simple mandate: provide reliable, safe power to all. Keep the lights on, as some would say. And they did just that.

Today, however, they are expected to also provide a broad range of energy services through a data-driven, customer-centric system operations platform that can manage, among other things, responsive loads, electric vehicles, storage devices and solar generation. All the while meeting environmental and social sustainability — and delivering on affordability.

Not an easy task, especially amid a looming electrical supply crunch that complicates planning.

That’s why this new mandate requires an ironclad commitment to innovation excellence. Not simply replacing “like with like,” or to make incremental progress, but to fundamentally reimagine our electricity system and how Canadians relate to it.

Our innovators in the electricity sector are stepping up to the plate and coming up with ingenious ideas, thanks to an annual investment of some $20 billion.

#google#

But they are presented with a dilemma.

Although Canada enjoys among the cleanest, most reliable electricity in the world, we have seen a sharp spike in its politicization. Electricity rates have become the rage and a top-of-mind issue for many Canadians, as highlighted by the Ontario hydro debate over rate plans. Ontario’s election reflects that passion.

This heightened attention places greater pressure on provincial governments, who regulate prices, and in jurisdictions like the Alberta electricity market questions about competition further influence those decisions. In turn, they delegate down to the actual regulators where, at their public hearings, the overwhelming and almost exclusive objective becomes: Keeping costs down.

Consequently, innovation pilot applications by Canadian electricity companies are routinely rejected by regulators, all in the name of cost constraints.

Clearly, electricity companies must be frugal and keep rates as low as possible.

No one likes paying more for their electricity. Homeowners don’t like it and neither do businesses.

Ironically, our rates are actually among the lowest in the world. But the mission of our political leaders should not be a race to the basement suite of prices. Nor should cheap gimmicks masquerade as serious policy solutions. Not if we are to be responsible to future generations.

We must therefore avoid, at all costs, building on the cheap.

Without constant innovation, reliability will suffer, especially as we battle more extreme weather events. In addition, we will not meet the future climate and clean energy targets such as the Clean Electricity Regulations for 2050 that all governments have set and continuously talk about. It is therefore incumbent upon our governments to spur a dynamic culture of innovation. And they must sync this with their regulators.

This year’s federal budget failed to build on the 2017 investments. One-time public-sector funding mechanisms are not enough. Investments must be sustained for the long haul.

To help promote and celebrate what happens when innovation is empowered by utilities, the Canadian Electricity Association has launched Canada’s first Centre of Excellence on electricity. The centre showcases cutting-edge development in how electricity is produced, delivered and consumed. Moreover, it highlights the economic, social and environmental benefits for Canadians.

One of the innovations celebrated by the centre was developed by Nova Scotia’s own NS Power. The company has been recognized for its groundbreaking Intelligent Feeder Project that generates power through a combination of a wind farm, a substation, and nearly a dozen Tesla batteries, reflecting broader clean grid and battery trends across Canada.

Political leaders must, of course, respond to the emotions and needs of their electors. But they must also lead.

That’s why ongoing long-term investments must be embedded in the policies of federal, provincial and territorial governments, and their respective regulatory systems. And Canada’s private sector cannot just point the finger to governments. They, too, must deliver, by incorporating meaningful innovation strategies into their corporate cultures and vision.

That’s the straightforward innovation challenge, as it is for the debate over rates.

But it also represents a generational opportunity, because if we get innovation right we will build that better, greener future that Canadians aspire to.

Sergio Marchi is president and CEO of the Canadian Electricity Association. He is a former Member of Parliament, cabinet minister, and Canadian Ambassador to the World Trade Organization and United Nations in Geneva.

 

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Opinion: UK Natural Gas, Rising Prices and Electricity

European Energy Market Crisis drives record natural gas and electricity prices across the EU, as LNG supply constraints, Russian pipeline dependence, marginal pricing, and renewables integration expose volatility in liberalised power markets.

 

Key Points

A 2021 surge in European gas and electricity prices from supply strains, demand rebounds, and marginal pricing exposure.

✅ Record TTF gas and day-ahead power prices across Europe

✅ LNG constraints and Russian pipeline dependence tightened supply

✅ Debate over marginal pricing vs regulated models intensifies

 

By Ronan Bolton

The year 2021 was a turbulent one for energy markets across Europe, as Europe's energy nightmare deepened across the region. Skyrocketing natural gas prices have created a sense of crisis and will lead to cost-of-living problems for many households, as wholesale costs feed through into retail prices for gas and electricity over the coming months.

This has created immediate challenges for governments, but it should also encourage us to rethink the fundamental design of our energy markets as we seek to transition to net zero, with many viewing it as a wake-up call to ditch fossil fuels across the bloc.

This energy crisis was driven by a combination of factors: the relaxation of Covid-19 lockdowns across Europe created a surge in demand, while cold weather early in the year diminished storage levels and contributed to increasing demand from Asian economies. A number of technical issues and supply-side constraints also combined to limit imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) into the continent.

Europe’s reliance on pipeline imports from Russia has once again been called into question, as Gazprom has refused to ride to the rescue, only fulfilling its pre-existing contracts. The combination of these, and other, factors resulted in record prices – the European benchmark price (the Dutch TTF Gas Futures Contract) reached almost €180/MWh on 21 December, with average day-ahead electricity prices exceeding €300/MWh across much of the continent in the following days.

Countries which rely heavily on natural gas as a source of electricity generation have been particularly exposed, with governments quickly put under pressure to intervene in the market.

In Spain the government and large energy companies have clashed over a proposed windfall tax on power producers. In Ireland, where wind and gas meet much of the country’s surging electricity demand, the government is proposing a €100 rebate for all domestic energy consumers in early 2022; while the UK government is currently negotiating a sector-wide bailout of the energy supply sector and considering ending the gas-electricity price link to curb bills.

This follows the collapse of a number of suppliers who had based their business models on attracting customers with low prices by buying cheap on the spot market. The rising wholesale prices, combined with the retail price cap previously introduced by the Theresa May government, led to their collapse.

While individual governments have little control over prices in an increasingly globalised and interconnected natural gas market, they can exert influence over electricity prices as these markets remain largely national and strongly influenced by domestic policy and regulation. Arising from this, the intersection of gas and power markets has become a key site of contestation and comment about the role of government in mitigating the impacts on consumers of rising fuel bills, even as several EU states oppose major reforms amid the price spike.

Given that renewables are constituting an ever-greater share of production capacity, many are now questioning why gas prices play such a determining role in electricity markets.

As I outline in my forthcoming book, Making Energy Markets, a particular feature of the ‘European model’ of liberalised electricity trade since the 1990s has been a reliance on spot markets to improve the efficiency of electricity systems. The idea was that high marginal prices – often set by expensive-to-run gas peaking plants – would signal when capacity limits are reached, providing clear incentives to consumers to reduce or delay demand at these peak periods.

This, in theory, would lead to an overall more efficient system, and in the long run, if average prices exceeded the costs of entering the market, new investments would be made, thus pushing the more expensive and inefficient plants off the system.

The free-market model became established during a more stable era when domestically-sourced coal, along with gas purchased on long-term contracts from European sources (the North Sea and the Netherlands), constituted a much greater proportion of electricity generation.

While prices fluctuated, they were within a somewhat predictable range, and provided a stable benchmark for the long-term contracts underpinning investment decisions. This is no longer the case as energy markets become increasingly volatile and disrupted during the energy transition.

The idea that free price formation in a competitive market, with governments standing back, would benefit electricity consumers and lead to more efficient systems was rooted in sound economic theory, and is the basis on which other major commodity markets, such as metals and agricultural crops, have been organised for decades.

The free-market model applied to electricity had clear limitations, however, as the majority of domestic consumers have not been exposed directly to real-time price signals. While this is changing with the roll-out of smart meters in many countries, the extent to which the average consumer will be willing or able to reduce demand in a predicable way during peak periods remains uncertain.

Also, experience shows that governments often come under pressure to intervene in markets if prices rise sharply during periods of scarcity, thus undermining a basic tenet of the market model, with EU gas price cap strategies floated as one option.

Given that gas continues to play a crucial role in balancing supply and demand for electricity, the options available to governments are limited, illustrating why rolling back electricity prices is harder than it appears for policymakers. One approach would be would be to keep faith with the liberalised market model, with limited interventions to help consumers in the short term, while ultimately relying on innovations in demand side technologies and alternatives to gas as a means of balancing systems with high shares of variable renewables.

An alternative scenario may see a return to old style national pricing policies, involving a move away from marginal pricing and spot markets, even as the EU prepares to revamp its electricity market in response. In the past, in particular during the post-WWII decades, and until markets were liberalised in the 1990s, governments have taken such an approach, centrally determining prices based on the costs of delivering long term system plans. The operation of gas plants and fuel procurement would become a much more regulated activity under such a model.

Many argue that this ‘traditional model’ better suits a world in which governments have committed to long-term decarbonisation targets, and zero marginal cost sources, such as wind and solar, play a more dominant role in markets and begin to push down prices.

A crucial question for energy policy makers is how to exploit this deflationary effect of renewables and pass-on cost savings to consumers, whilst ensuring that the lights stay on.

Despite the promise of storage technologies such as grid-scale batteries and hydrogen produced from electrolysis, aside from highly polluting coal, no alternative to internationally sourced natural gas as a means of balancing electricity systems and ensuring our energy security is immediately available.

This fact, above all else, will constrain the ambitions of governments to fundamentally transform energy markets.

Ronan Bolton is Reader at the School of Social and Political Science, University of Edinburgh and Co-Director of the UK Energy Research Centre. His book Making Energy Markets: The Origins of Electricity Liberalisation in Europe is to be published by Palgrave Macmillan in 2022.

 

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