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National Grid power supply warning highlights electricity shortage risks amid low wind output, generator outages, and cold weather, reducing capacity margins and grid stability; considering demand response and reserve power to avoid blackout risk.

Key Points

An alert that reduced capacity from low wind and outages requires actions to maintain UK grid stability.

✅ Low wind output and generator outages reduce capacity margins

✅ ESO exploring demand response and reserve generation options

✅ Aim: maintain grid stability and avoid blackout risk

National Grid has warned that Britain’s electricity will be in short supply over the next few days after a string of unplanned power plant outages and unusually low wind speeds this week, as cheap wind power wanes across the system.

The electricity system operator said it will take action to “make sure there is enough generation” during the cold weather spell, including virtual power plants and other demand-side measures, to prevent a second major blackout in as many years.

“Unusually low wind output coinciding with a number of generator outages means the cushion of spare capacity we operate the system with has been reduced,” the company told its Twitter followers.

“We’re exploring measures and actions to make sure there is enough generation available to increase our buffer of capacity.”

A spokeswoman for National Grid said the latest electricity supply squeeze was not expected to be as severe as recorded last month, following reports that the government’s emergency energy plan was not going ahead, and added that the company did not expect to issue an official warning in the next 24 hours.

“We’re monitoring how the situation develops,” she said.

The warning is the second from the electricity system operator in recent weeks. In mid-September the company issued an official warning to the electricity market as peak power prices climbed, that its ‘buffer’ of power reserves had fallen below 500MW and it may need to call on more power plants to help prevent a blackout. The notice was later withdrawn.

Concerns over National Grid’s electricity supplies have been relatively rare in recent years. It was forced in November 2015 to ask businesses to cut their demand as a “last resort” measure to keep the lights on after a string of coal plant breakdowns.

But since then, National Grid’s greater challenge has been an oversupply of electricity, partly due to record wind generation, which has threatened to overwhelm the grid during times of low electricity demand.

National Grid has already spent almost £1bn on extra measures to prevent blackouts over the first half of the year by paying generators to produce less electricity during the coronavirus lockdown, as daily demand fell.

The company paid wind farms to turn off, and EDF Energy to halve the nuclear generation from its Sizewell B nuclear plant, to avoid overwhelming the grid when demand for electricity fell by almost a quarter from last year.

The electricity supply squeeze comes a little over a year after National Grid left large parts of England and Wales without electricity after the biggest blackout in a decade left a million homes in the dark. National Grid blamed a lightning strike for the widespread power failure.

Similar supply strains have recently caused power cuts in China, underscoring how weather and generation mix can trigger blackouts.

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Ontario IESO Accounting Dispute highlights tensions over public sector accounting standards, auditor general oversight, electricity market transparency, KPMG advice, rate-regulated accounting, and an alleged $1.3B deficit understatement affecting Hydro bills and provincial finances.

Key Points

A PSAS clash between Ontario's auditor general and the IESO, alleging a $1.3B deficit impact and transparency failures.

✅ Auditor alleges deficit understated by $1.3B

✅ Dispute over PSAS vs US-style accounting

✅ KPMG support, transparency and co-operation questioned

The bad blood between the Ontario government and auditor general bubbled to the surface once again Monday, with the Liberal energy minister downplaying a dispute between the auditor and the Crown corporation that manages the province's electricity market, even as the government pursued legislation to lower electricity rates in the province.

Glenn Thibeault said concerns raised by auditor general Bonnie Lysyk during testimony before a legislative committee last week aren't new and the practices being used by the Independent Electricity System Operator are commonly endorsed by major auditing firms.

"(Lysyk) doesn't like the rate-regulated accounting. We've always said we've relied on the other experts within the field as well, plus the provincial controller," Thibeault said.

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"We believe that we are following public sector accounting standards."

Thibeault said that Ontario Power Generation, Hydro One and many other provinces and U.S. states use the same accounting practices.

"We go with what we're being told by those who are in the field, like KPMG, like E&Y," he said.

But a statement from Lysyk's office Monday disputed Thibeault's assessment.

"The minister said the practices being used by the IESO are common in other jurisdictions," the statement said.

"In fact, the situation with the IESO is different because none of the six other jurisdictions with entities similar to the IESOuse Canadian Public Sector Accounting Standards. Five of them are in the United States and use U.S. accounting standards."

Lysyk said last week that the IESO is using "bogus" accounting practices and her office launched a special audit of the agency late last year after the agency changed their accounting to be more in line with U.S. accounting, following reports of a phantom demand problem that cost customers millions.

Lysyk said the accounting changes made by the IESO impact the province's deficit, understating it by $1.3 billion as of the end of 2017, adding that IESO "stalled" her office when it asked for information and was not co-operative during the audit.

Lysyk's full audit of the IESO is expected to be released in the coming weeks and is among several accounting disputes her office has been engaged in with the Liberal government over the past few years.

Last fall, she accused the government of purposely obscuring the true financial impact of its 25% hydro rate cut by keeping billions in debt used to finance that plan off the province's books. Lysyk had said she would audit the IESO because of its role in the hydro plan's complex accounting scheme.

"Management of the IESO and the board would not co-operate with us, in the sense that they continually say they're co-operating, but they stalled on giving us information," she said last week.

Terry Young, a vice-president with the IESO, said the agency has fully co-operated with the auditor general. The IESO opened up its office to seven staff members from the auditor's office while they did their work.

"We recognize the work that she's doing and to that end we've tried to fully co-operate," he said. "We've given her all of the information that we can."

Young said the change in accounting standards is about ensuring greater transparency in transactions in the energy marketplace.

"It's consistent with many other independent electricity system operators are doing," he said.

Lysyk also criticized IESO's accounting firm, KPMG, for agreeing with the IESO on the accounting standards. She was critical of the firm billing taxpayers for nearly $600,000 work with the IESO in 2017, compared to their normal yearly audit fee of $86,500.

KPMG spokeswoman Lisa Papas said the accounting issues that IESO addressed during 2017 were complex, contributing to the higher fees.

The accounting practices the auditor is questioning are a "difference of professional judgement," she said.

"The standards for public sector organizations such as IESO are principles-based standards and, accordingly, require the exercise of considerable professional judgement," she said in a statement.

"In many cases, there is more than one acceptable approach that is compliant with the applicable standards."

Progressive Conservative energy critic Todd Smith said the government isn't being transparent with the auditor general or taxpayers, aligning with calls for cleaning up Ontario's hydro mess in the sector.

"Obviously, they have some kind of dispute but the auditor's office is saying that the numbers that the government is putting out there are bogus.

Those are her words," he said. "We've always said that we believe the auditor general's are the true numbers for the
province of Ontario."

NDP energy critic Peter Tabuns said the Liberal government has decided to "play with accounting rules" to make its books look better ahead of the spring election, despite warnings that electricity prices could soar if costs are pushed into the future.

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Canada Economic Crossroads highlights bank earnings trends, interest rates, loan delinquencies, EV tariffs on Chinese imports, domestic manufacturing, Algoma Steel decarbonization, sustainability, and housing market risks shaping growth, investment, consumer prices, and climate policy.

Key Points

An overview of how bank earnings, EV tariffs, and Algoma Steel's transition shape Canada's economy.

✅ Higher rates lift margins but raise delinquencies and housing risks

✅ EV tariffs aid domestic makers but pressure consumer prices

✅ Algoma invests to decarbonize, boosting efficiency and compliance

In a complex economic landscape, recent developments have brought attention to several pivotal issues affecting Canada's business sector. The Globe and Mail’s latest report delves into three major topics: the latest bank earnings, the implications of new tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs), and Algoma Steel’s strategic maneuvers. These factors collectively paint a picture of the challenges and opportunities facing Canada's economy.

Bank Earnings Reflect Economic Uncertainty

The recent financial reports from major Canadian banks have revealed a mixed picture of the nation’s economic health. As the Globe and Mail reports, earnings results show robust performances in some areas while highlighting growing concerns in others. Banks have generally posted strong quarterly results, buoyed by higher interest rates which have improved their net interest margins. This uptick is largely attributed to the central bank's monetary policies aimed at combating inflation and stabilizing the economy.

However, the positive earnings are tempered by underlying economic uncertainties. Rising loan delinquencies and a slowing housing market are areas of concern. Increased interest rates, while beneficial for banks’ margins, have also led to higher borrowing costs for consumers and businesses. This dynamic has the potential to impact overall economic growth and consumer confidence.

Tariffs on Chinese EVs: A Strategic Shift

Another significant development is the imposition of new tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. This move is part of a broader strategy to protect domestic automotive industries and address trade imbalances, aligning with public support for tariffs in key sectors. The tariffs are expected to increase the cost of Chinese EVs in Canada, which could have several implications for the market.

On one hand, the tariffs might provide a temporary boost to Canadian and North American manufacturers by reducing competition from lower-priced Chinese imports. This protectionist measure could encourage investments in local production and innovation, mirroring tariff threats boosting support for energy projects in other sectors. However, the increased cost of Chinese EVs may also lead to higher prices for consumers, potentially slowing the adoption of electric vehicles—a critical goal in Canada’s climate strategy.

The tariffs come at a time when the Canadian government is keen on accelerating the transition to electric mobility to meet its environmental targets, even as a critical crunch in electrical supply raises questions about grid readiness. Balancing the protection of domestic industries with the broader goal of reducing emissions will be a significant challenge moving forward.

Algoma Steel’s Strategic Evolution

In the steel industry, Algoma Steel has been making headlines with its strategic initiatives aimed at transforming its operations, in a broader shift toward clean grids and industrial decarbonization. The Globe and Mail highlights Algoma Steel's efforts to modernize its production processes and shift towards more sustainable practices. This includes significant investments in technology and infrastructure to enhance production efficiency and reduce environmental impact.

Algoma's focus on reducing carbon emissions aligns with broader industry trends towards sustainability. The company’s efforts are part of a larger push within the steel sector to address climate change and meet regulatory requirements. As one of Canada’s leading steel producers, Algoma’s actions could set a precedent for the industry, showcasing how traditional manufacturing sectors can adapt to evolving environmental standards.

Implications and Future Outlook

The interplay of these developments reflects a period of significant transition for Canada's economy, shaped in part by U.S. policy where Biden is seen as better for Canada's energy sector by some analysts. For banks, the challenge will be to navigate the balance between profitability and potential risks from a changing economic environment. The new tariffs on Chinese EVs represent a strategic shift with mixed implications for the automotive market, potentially influencing both domestic production and consumer prices. Meanwhile, Algoma Steel’s push towards sustainability could serve as a model for other industries seeking to align with environmental goals.

As these issues unfold, stakeholders across sectors will need to stay informed and adaptable. For policymakers, the challenge will be to support domestic industries while fostering innovation and sustainability, including the dilemma over electricity rates and innovation they must weigh. For businesses, the focus will be on navigating financial pressures and leveraging opportunities for growth. Consumers, in turn, will face the impact of these developments in their daily lives, from the cost of borrowing to the price of electric vehicles.

In summary, Canada’s current economic landscape is characterized by a blend of financial resilience, strategic adjustments, and evolving industry practices, amid policy volatility such as a tariff threat delaying Quebec's green energy bill earlier this year. As the country navigates these crossroads, the outcomes of these developments will play a crucial role in shaping the future economic environment.

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EU Renewable Energy Shift is cutting gas dependence as wind and solar expand, reshaping Europe's power mix, curbing emissions, and pressuring coal use amid a supply crisis and rising natural gas prices.

Key Points

An EU trend where wind and solar growth reduce gas reliance, curb coal, and lower power-sector emissions.

✅ Wind and solar displace gas in EU power mix

✅ Coal use rises as gas prices surge

✅ Emissions fall, but not fast enough for 1.5 C target

The European Union’s renewable energy sources are helping reduce its dependence on natural gas, under the current European electricity pricing framework, that’s still costing the region dearly.

Renewables growth has helped reduce the EU’s dependence on gas, as wind and solar outpaced gas across the bloc last year, which has soared in price since the middle of last year as the region grapples with a supply crisis that’s dealt blows to industries as well as ordinary consumers’ pockets. More than half of new renewable generation since 2019 has replaced gas power, according to a study by London-based climate think tank Ember, with the rest replacing mainly nuclear and coal sources.

“These are moments and paradigm shifts when governments and businesses start taking this much more seriously,” said Charles Moore, the lead author on the study, amid Covid-19 responses accelerating the transition across Europe. “The alternatives are available, they are cheaper, and they are likely to get even cheaper and more competitive. Renewables are now an opportunity, not a cost.”

The high price of gas relative to coal has meant utilities are leaning more on coal as a back-up for renewable generation, as stunted hydro and nuclear output has constrained low-carbon alternatives in parts of Europe, which risks the trajectory of Europe’s phase-out of the dirtiest fossil fuel. Last year, the EU’s coal use jumped disproportionately high relative to the rise in power generation as high gas prices boosted the relative profitability of burning coal instead.

Europe Coal Use Jumps as Costly Gas Turns Firms to Dirty Fuel
EU power generation from renewables reached a record high in 2021 of 547 terawatt-hours last year, accounting for an 11% increase compared to two years before, according to Ember’s Europe Electricity Review. It’s more than doubled in a decade, representing a 157% increase since 2011. 

Gas use declined last year for the second year in a row, as Europe explores storing electricity in gas pipelines to leverage existing infrastructure, reaching a level 8.1% lower than 2019. By contrast, coal use fell just 3.3% in the same period. Put simply, wind and solar did a great job of replacing coal during 2011-2019 but since then renewables have mostly been nudging out gas-fired power stations.

Ember’s Moore warned that the slowing phase-out of coal might require legislation to accelerate. The International Energy Agency recommends OECD countries cease using coal by the end of the decade to ensure alignment with the Paris Agreement target of keeping the world’s temperature increase below 1.5 Celsius, with renewables poised to eclipse coal globally by the mid-2020s lending momentum. 

“Europe can accelerate the phasing out of coal by building more renewable energy and faster,” said Felicia Aminoff,  an energy-transition analyst at BloombergNEF. “Wind and solar have no fuel costs, so as soon as you have made the initial investments to build wind and solar capacity it will start replacing generation that uses any kind of fuel, whether it is coal or gas.”

Overall, EU power sector emissions fell at less than half the rate required to hit that target, Ember’s report said. Spain produced the largest emissions reduction in the last two years, with renewables adding about 25 TWh and gas falling 15 TWh, and in Germany renewables topped coal and nuclear for the first time to support the shift. In contrast, heavy use of coal dragged down the bloc’s climate progress in Poland, where coal use rose about 8 TWh and renewables gained only 4 TWh.

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CCUS in the U.S. Power Sector drives investments as DOE grants, 45Q tax credits, and EPA carbon rules spur carbon capture, geologic storage, and utilization, while debates persist over costs, transparency, reliability, and emissions safeguards.

Key Points

CCUS captures CO2 from power plants for storage or use, backed by 45Q tax credits, DOE funding, and EPA carbon rules.

✅ DOE grants and 45Q credits aim to de-risk project economics.

✅ EPA rules may require capture rates to meet emissions limits.

✅ Transparency and MRV guard against tax credit abuse.

New public and private funding, including DOE $110M for CCUS announced recently, and expected strong federal power plant emissions reduction standards have accelerated electricity sector investments in carbon capture, utilization and storage,’ or CCUS, projects but some worry it is good money thrown after bad.

CCUS separates carbon from a fossil fuel-burning power plant’s exhaust through carbon capture methods for geologic storage or use in industrial and other applications, according to the Department of Energy. Fossil fuel industry giants like Calpine and Chevron are looking to take advantage of new federal tax credits and grant funding for CCUS to manage potentially high costs in meeting power plant performance requirements, amid growing investor pressure for climate reporting, including new rules, expected from EPA soon, on reducing greenhouse gas emissions from existing power plants.

Power companies have “ambitious plans” to add CCUS to power plants, estimated to cause 25% of U.S. CO2 emissions. As a result, the power sector “needs CCUS in its toolkit,” said DOE Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management Assistant Secretary Brad Crabtree. Successful pilots and demonstrations “will add to investor confidence and lead to more deployment” to provide dispatchable clean energy, including emerging CO2-to-electricity approaches for power system reliability after 2030,| he added.

But environmentalists and others insist potentially cost-prohibitive CCUS infrastructure, including CO2 storage hub initiatives, must still prove itself effective under rigorous and transparent federal oversight.

“The vast majority of long-term U.S. power sector needs can be met without fossil generation, and better options are being deployed and in development,” Sierra Club Senior Advisor, Strategic Research and Development, Jeremy Fisher, said, pointing to carbon-free electricity investments gaining momentum in the market. CCUS “may be needed, but without better guardrails, power sector abuses of federal funding could lead to increased emissions and stranded fossil assets,” he added.

New DOE CCUS project grants, an increased $85 per metric ton, or tonne, federal 45Q tax credit, and the forthcoming EPA power plant carbon rules and the federal coal plan will do for CCUS what similar policies did for renewables, advocates and opponents agreed. But controversial past CCUS performance and tax credit abuses must be avoided with transparent reporting requirements for CO2 capture, opponents added.

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Florida Electricity Deregulation Ruling highlights the Florida Supreme Court decision blocking a ballot measure on retail choice, preserving utility monopolies for NextEra and Duke Energy, while similar deregulation efforts arise in Virginia and Arizona.

Key Points

A high court decision removing a retail choice ballot measure, keeping Florida utility monopolies intact for incumbents.

✅ Petition language deemed misleading for 2020 ballot

✅ Preserves NextEra and Duke Energy market dominance

✅ Similar retail choice pushes in VA and AZ

Florida’s top court ruled against a proposed constitutional amendment that would have allowed customers to pick their electricity provider, even as Florida solar incentives face rejection by state leaders, threatening monopolies held by utilities such as NextEra Energy Inc. and Duke Energy Corp.

In a ruling Thursday, the court said the petition’s language is “misleading” and doesn’t comply with requirements to be included on the 2020 ballot, reflecting debates over electricity pricing changes at the federal level. The measure’s sponsor, Citizens for Energy Choice, said the move ends the initiative, even as electricity future advocacy continues nationwide.

“While we were confident in our plan to gather the remaining signatures required, we cannot overcome this last obstacle,” the group’s chair, Alex Patton, noting ongoing energy freedom in the South efforts, said in a statement.

The proposed measure was one of several efforts underway to deregulate U.S. electricity markets, including New York’s review of retail energy markets this year. Earlier this week, two Virginia state lawmakers unveiled a bill to allow residents and businesses to pick their electricity provider, threatening Dominion Energy Inc.’s longstanding local monopoly. And in Arizona, where Arizona Public Service Co. has long reigned, regulators are considering a similar move, while in New England Hydro-Quebec’s export bid has been energized by a court decision.

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