Turning dirty garbage into clean fuel

By St. Catharines Standard


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Niagara's biggest landfill has a massive case of indigestion. Like an enormous stomach, the Niagara Waste Systems landfill reluctantly digests a diet of rotting veggies, rusty metals, plentiful plastic and chemical soup.

The former quarry on the border of Thorold and Niagara Falls has been force-fed the toxic stew of garbage for about 26 years.

It's a recipe for bad gas.

Left alone, landfill gas is continually belched into the environment. That's a bad thing, since the gas is explosive, smells like rotten eggs and contributes to global warming and smog.

It used to be a big, stinky problem for the landfill, not to mention its neighbours. But that was before landfill owner Walker Industries learned how to turn garbage gas into gold.

"We had an odour problem. We hired a series of consultants who studied the problem to death, but we eventually realized we were getting nowhere," vice-president Mike Watt said.

Then, Walker Industries hooked up with a Cambridge firm, Comcor, to form Integrated Gas Recovery Services (IGRS). The spinoff company specializes in capturing landfill gas and converting its methane into energy.

Their first project: collecting gas from the Walker landfill and piping it four kilometres to feed the boilers at Abitibi- Bowater's paper recycling plant in Thorold.

Some is also piped into a giant internal combustion engine to generate about a megawatt of electricity, which is sold to the provincial grid.

"What we're doing is turning an environmental problem into green energy," Watt said. "It's great from an environmental perspective - and we can make money off of it."

That's a huge change from just a few years ago, when the company burned money trying to stop odours and placate angry neighbours.

Now, buried trash all over the country is buried treasure.

IGRS was established in 2002, and the company has since tapped landfills across Ontario for about 20 megawatts of electricity, enough to power 20,000 homes.

The company boasts revenues of $10 million annually, and new projects in other provinces could double energy production.

That makes IGRS one of the biggest players in the industry in Canada, Watt said. He expects it to get bigger.

"It's a No. 1 priority for us going forward," he said. "We think there's a lot more opportunities out there."

That includes Niagara, but it won't be easy, said Darren Fry, project manager for landfill gas operations.

One of the primary rules of the game, Fry said, is "big is better."

Walker's private landfill fits the bill.

The grassy hill looming over the Walker Industries complex hides 20 million tonnes of garbage, and counting. That much garbage could easily burp more than 47 million cubic metres of gas into the air every year.

Instead, the gas is sucked out of 97 wells drilled into the landfill and mechanically scrubbed of sulphur and moisture. About 105 cubic metres of gas per minute is then pumped to AbitibiBowater - the same amount a gas furnace might use all winter.

The remainder, about 10.5 cubic metres per minute, is pumped into a 20-cylinder, 1,700-horsepower engine. What comes out is electricity, and the province pays 11 cents per kilowatt-hour to get it.

It's not always that simple.

"The smaller the landfill, the less gas you have, and the harder it is to make the economics work," Fry said.

Most municipal landfills are smaller than Walker Industries, including all 14 overseen by Niagara Region.

The Region would love to cut greenhouse gas emissions and make extra cash at the same time, said environmental monitoring program manager Jamie Kristjanson.

There are a few obstacles.

Some of Niagara's landfills are too small to vent very much gas. Others are too old, having digested and spewed most of their gas years ago.

Still, the four largest landfills produce nearly 40 million cubic metres of landfill gas every year.

The biggest, Glenridge's dump-turned-park, still produces 15 million cubic metres of gas annually, most of which is collected and flared on site to combat odour.

The problem: Walker Industries and the Region have tried - so far unsuccessfully - to turn that landfill's gas into cash ever since it closed eight years ago.

"I've got to admit, the project seems to have been a little cursed," Watt said.

The company first offered to pipe gas from Glenridge to a co-generation plant at Brock University in 1999.

When Brock opted out, the next plan was to harness the gas energy for the nearby Shaver Rehabilitation Centre. Ownership changes between Hotel Dieu and the Niagara Health System delayed the plan.

Then the manufacturer of the required generating engine went bankrupt last year. All the while, Glenridge's gas was slowly burning away for free.

"There's less everyday," Fry said. "The ideal time to start a project like this is a year or two before the landfill closes. It's been eight and counting."

As gas reserves fade, so does profitability.

But neither side has given up. IGRS has applied for federal funding to help cover the project's high capital costs. A lonely landfill gas engine even now sits on the lawn at Walker Industries, waiting to be used.

"We're still interested," Kristjanson said. "And Glenridge isn't the only opportunity."

Humberstone landfill in Welland and the Niagara Road 12 dump in West Lincoln are big, active landfills that could one day be tapped for gas.

"They're smaller than ours, but they're right in our backyard. It would be a shame not to make use of the resource," Watt said. "It's just the right business to be in right now, with the emphasis on green energy."

Using the words "green" and "landfill" together makes some environmentalists cringe.

The U. S. group Energy Justice argues burning landfill gas is dirty and potentially dangerous because of the nasty chemical contaminants typically found in the dump.

The gas can contain trace amounts of hundreds of chemicals and toxins like freon or mercury, according to Environment Canada. Burning the gas also has the potential to create new toxic compounds like nitrogen oxides, dioxins and furans.

However, Environment Canada studies to date suggest levels of all these substances in combustion emissions are minuscule, and not a threat to human health.

Watt added his company's generating engines "meet and exceed" provincial air emissions regulations.

Burning is also supposed to contribute less to global warming. Landfill gas is mostly made up of methane and carbon dioxide, two greenhouse gases. (Only methane is burned for energy.)

Methane is about 21 times more potent as a global-warming agent than carbon dioxide, and about one-quarter of all man-made methane comes from landfills.

Environment Canada estimates if half of all landfill gas produced in Canada was combusted, it would mean a greenhouse gas reduction equivalent to six million tonnes of carbon dioxide annually.

Simply flaring landfill gas on site, as is done at Glenridge, would also do the trick.

But Watt considers that a waste. More landfill gas energy means less need for coal-fired power, he said.

"If you let it vent, or just flare it, you don't get the benefit of replacing dirtier forms of electricity," he said.

Walker Industries expects to get 20 to 30 years of useable gas out of its own landfill. Glenridge, even now, could be tapped for 10 to 20 years, Watt said.

But he acknowledged garbage power has a limited lifespan in Ontario.

Landfills aren't popular and recycling advocates aim to make them history.

A new focus on composting will also mean less organics in the dump - the main ingredient for methane production.

But while landfills exist, so will landfill gas. "It doesn't make sense, environmentally or economically, not to use it," Watt said.

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Hydro-Québec puts global ambitions on hold as crisis weighs on demand

Hydro-Que9bec COVID-19 M&A Pause signals a halt to international expansion as falling electricity demand, weaker exports, and revenue pressure shift capital to the Quebec economy, prioritizing domestic investment, strategic plan revisions, and risk management.

 

Key Points

Hydro-Que9bec COVID-19 M&A Pause halts overseas deals, shifting investment to Quebec as demand, exports and revenue fall.

✅ International M&A on hold; capital reallocated to Quebec projects

✅ Lower electricity demand reduces exports and spot prices

✅ Strategic plan and 2020 guidance revised downward

 

COVID-19 is forcing Hydro-Québec to pull the plug on its global ambitions — for now, even as its electricity ambitions have reopened old wounds in Newfoundland and Labrador in recent years.

Quebec’s state-owned power generator and distributor has put international mergers and acquisitions on hold for the foreseeable future because of the COVID-19 crisis, chief financial officer Jean-Hugues Lafleur said Friday.

Former chief executive officer Éric Martel, who left last month, had made foreign expansion a key tenet of his growth strategy.

“We’re in revision mode” as pertains to acquisitions, Lafleur told reporters on a conference call, as the company pursues a long-term strategy to wean the province off fossil fuels at home as well. “I don’t see how Hydro-Québec could take $5 billion now and invest it in Chile because we have an investment opportunity there. Instead, the $5 billion will be invested here to support the Quebec economy. We’re going to make sure the Quebec economy recovers the right way before we go abroad.”

Lafleur spoke after Hydro-Québec reported a 14-per-cent drop in first-quarter profit and warned full-year results will fall short of expectations as COVID-19 weighs on power demand.

Net income in the three-month period ended March 31 was $1.53 billion, down from $1.77 billion a year ago, Hydro-Québec said in a statement. Revenue fell about six per cent to $4.37 billion.

“Due to the economic downturn resulting from the current crisis, we’re anticipating lower electricity sales in all of our markets,” Lafleur said. “Consequently, the financial outlook for 2020 set out in the strategic plan 2020–2024, which also reflects the province’s no-nuclear stance, will be revised downward.”

It’s still too early to determine the scope of the revision, the company said in its quarterly report. Hydro-Québec was targeting net income of between $2.8 billion and $3 billion in 2020, according to its strategic plan.

The first quarter was the utility’s last under Martel, who quit to take over at jetmaker Bombardier Inc. Quebec appointed former Énergir CEO Sophie Brochu to replace him, effective April 6.

First-quarter results “weren’t significantly affected” by the pandemic, Lafleur said on a conference call with reporters. Electricity sales generated $294 million less than a year ago due primarily to milder temperatures, he said.

Results will start to reflect COVID-19’s impact in the second quarter, though NB Power has signed three deals to bring more Quebec electricity into the province that could cushion some exports.

Electricity consumption in Quebec has fallen five per cent in the past two months, paced by an 11-per-cent plunge for commercial and institutional clients, and cities such as Ottawa saw a demand plunge during closures.

Industrial customers such as pulp and paper producers have also curbed power use, and it’s hard to see demand rebounding this year, Lafleur said.

“What we’ve lost since the start of the pandemic is not coming back,” he said.

Demand on export markets, meanwhile, has shrunk between six per cent and nine per cent since mid-March. The drop has been particularly steep in Ontario, reaching as much as 12 per cent, after the province chose not to renew its electricity deal with Quebec earlier this year, compared with declines of up to five per cent in New England and eight per cent in New York.

Spot prices in the U.S. have retreated in tandem, falling this week to as low as 1.5 U.S. cents per kilowatt-hour, Lafleur said. Hydro-Québec’s hedging strategy — which involves entering into fixed-price sales contracts about a year ahead of time — allowed the company to export power for an average of 4.9 U.S. cents per kilowatt-hour in the first quarter, compared with the 2.2 cents it would have otherwise made.

Investments will decline this year as construction activity proceeds at reduced speed, Lafleur said. Hydro-Québec was initially planning to invest about $4 billion in the province, he said, as it works to increase hydropower capacity to more than 37,000 MW across its fleet.

Physical distancing measures “are having an impact on productivity,” Lafleur said. “We can’t work the way we wanted, and project costs are going to be affected. Anytime we send workers north on a plane, we need to leave an empty seat beside them.”

 

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Opinion: Fossil-fuel workers ready to support energy transition

Canada Net-Zero Transition unites energy workers, R&D, and clean tech to decarbonize steel and cement with hydrogen, scale renewables, and build hybrid storage, delivering a just transition that strengthens communities and the economy.

 

Key Points

A national plan to reach net-zero by 2050 via renewables, hydrogen, decarbonization, and a just transition for workers.

✅ Hydrogen for steel and cement decarbonization

✅ Hybrid energy storage and clean tech R&D

✅ Just transition pathways for energy workers

 

Except for an isolated pocket of skeptics, there is now an almost universal acceptance that climate change is a global emergency that demands immediate and far-reaching action to defend our home and future generations. Yet in Canada we remain largely focused on how the crisis divides us rather than on the potential for it to unite us, despite nationwide progress in electricity decarbonization efforts.

It’s not a case of fossil-fuel industry workers versus the rest, or Alberta versus British Columbia where bridging the electricity gap could strengthen cooperation. We are all in this together. The challenge now is how to move forward in a way that leaves no one behind.

The fossil fuel industry has been — and continues to be — a key driver of Canada’s economy. Both of us had successful careers in the energy sector, but realized, along with an increasing number of energy workers, that the transition we need to cope with climate change could not be accomplished solely from within the industry.

Even as resource companies innovate to significantly reduce the carbon burden of each barrel, the total emission of greenhouse gases from all sources continues to rise. We must seize the opportunity to harness this innovative potential in alternative and complementary ways, mobilizing research and development, for example, to power carbon-intensive steelmaking and cement manufacture from hydrogen or to advance hybrid energy storage systems and decarbonizing Canada's electricity grid strategies — the potential for cross-over technology is immense.

The bottom line is inescapable: we must reach net-zero emissions by 2050 in order to prevent runaway global warming, which is why we launched Iron & Earth in 2016. Led by oilsands workers committed to increasingly incorporating renewable energy projects into our work scope, our non-partisan membership now includes a range of industrial trades and professions who share a vision for a sustainable energy future for Canada — one that would ensure the health and equity of workers, our families, communities, the economy, and the environment.

Except for an isolated pocket of skeptics, there is now an almost universal acceptance that climate change is a global emergency that demands immediate and far-reaching action, including cleaning up Canada's electricity to meet climate pledges, to defend our home and future generations. Yet in Canada we remain largely focused on how the crisis divides us rather than on the potential for it to unite us.

It’s not a case of fossil-fuel industry workers versus the rest, or Alberta versus British Columbia. We are all in this together. The challenge now is how to move forward in a way that leaves no one behind.

The fossil fuel industry has been — and continues to be — a key driver of Canada’s economy. Both of us had successful careers in the energy sector, but realized, along with an increasing number of energy workers, that the transition we need to cope with climate change could not be accomplished solely from within the industry.

Even as resource companies innovate to significantly reduce the carbon burden of each barrel, the total emission of greenhouse gases from all sources continues to rise, underscoring that Canada will need more electricity to hit net-zero, according to the IEA. We must seize the opportunity to harness this innovative potential in alternative and complementary ways, mobilizing research and development, for example, to power carbon-intensive steelmaking and cement manufacture from hydrogen or to advance hybrid energy storage systems — the potential for cross-over technology is immense.

The bottom line is inescapable: we must reach net-zero emissions by 2050 in order to prevent runaway global warming, which is why we launched Iron & Earth in 2016. Led by oilsands workers committed to increasingly incorporating renewable energy projects into our work scope, as calls for a fully renewable electricity grid by 2030 gain attention, our non-partisan membership now includes a range of industrial trades and professions who share a vision for a sustainable energy future for Canada — one that would ensure the health and equity of workers, our families, communities, the economy, and the environment.

 

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Hydro One shares jump 5.7 per cent after U.S. regulators reject $6.7B takeover

Hydro One Avista takeover rejection signals Washington regulators blocking a utility acquisition over governance risk, EPS dilution, and balance sheet impact, as investors applaud share price gains and a potential US$103M break fee.

 

Key Points

A regulator-led block of Hydro One's Avista bid, citing EPS dilution, balance sheet risk, and governance concerns.

✅ Washington denies approval; Idaho, Oregon decisions pending.

✅ EPS dilution avoided; balance sheet strength preserved.

✅ Shares rise 5.7%; US$103M break fee if deal collapses.

 

Opposition politicians may not like it but investors are applauding the rejection of Hydro One Ltd.'s $6.7-billion Avista takeover of U.S.-based utility Avista Corp.

Shares in the power company controlled by the Ontario government, which has also proposed a bill redesign to simplify statements, closed at $21.53, up $1.16 or 5.7 per cent, on the Toronto Stock Exchange on Thursday.

On Wednesday, Washington State regulators said they would not allow Ontario's largest utility to buy Avista over concerns about political risk that the provincial government, which owns 47 per cent of Hydro One's shares, might meddle in Avista's operations.

Financial analysts had predicted investors would welcome the news because the deal, announced in July 2017, would have eroded earnings per share and weakened Hydro One's balance sheet.

"The Washington regulator's denial of Avista is a positive development for the shares, in our opinion," said analyst Ben Pham of BMO Capital Markets in a report on Wednesday.

"While this may sound odd, we note that the Avista deal is expected to be EPS dilutive and result in a weaker balance sheet for (Hydro One). Not acquiring Avista and refocusing its attention on its core Ontario franchise ... along with related interprovincial arrangements such as the Ontario-Quebec electricity deal under discussion would likely be viewed positively if the deal ultimately breaks."

Decisions are yet to come from Idaho and Oregon state regulators, but Washington was probably the most important as the state contains customers making up about 60 per cent of Avista's rate base, Pham said.

He pointed out that a US$103-million break fee is to be paid to Avista if the deal collapses due to a failure to obtain regulatory approval.

CIBC analyst Robert Catellier raised his 12-month Hydro One target price by 25 cents and said many shareholders will feel "relieved" that the deal had failed.

He warned that the company's earnings power could deteriorate as the province seeks to reduce power bills by 12 per cent, despite an Ontario-Quebec hydro deal that may not lower costs.

 

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Heatwave Sparks Unprecedented Electricity Demand Across Eastern U.S

Eastern U.S. Heatwave Electricity Demand surges to record peak load, straining the power grid, lifting wholesale prices, and prompting demand response, conservation measures, and load shedding to protect grid reliability during extreme temperatures.

 

Key Points

It is the record peak load from extreme heat, straining grids, lifting wholesale prices, and prompting demand response.

✅ Peak electricity use stresses regional power grid.

✅ Prices surge; conservation and demand response urged.

✅ Utilities monitor load, avoid outages via load shedding.

 

As temperatures soar to unprecedented highs across the Eastern United States, a blistering heatwave has triggered record-breaking electricity demand. This article delves into the causes behind the surge in energy consumption, its impact on the power grid, and measures taken to manage the strain during this extraordinary weather event.

Intensifying Heatwave Conditions

The Eastern U.S. is currently experiencing one of its hottest summers on record, with temperatures climbing well above seasonal norms. This prolonged heatwave has prompted millions of residents to rely heavily on air conditioning and cooling systems to escape the sweltering heat, with electricity struggles worsening in several communities, driving up electricity usage to peak levels.

Strain on Power Grid Infrastructure

The surge in electricity demand during the heatwave has placed significant strain on the region's power grid infrastructure, with supply-chain constraints complicating maintenance and equipment availability during peak periods.

Record-breaking Energy Consumption

The combination of high temperatures and increased cooling demands has led to record-breaking energy consumption levels across the Eastern U.S. States like New York, Pennsylvania, and Maryland have reported peak electricity demand exceeding previous summer highs, with blackout risks drawing heightened attention from operators, highlighting the extraordinary nature of this heatwave event.

Impact on Energy Costs and Supply

The spike in electricity demand during the heatwave has also affected energy costs and supply dynamics. Wholesale electricity prices have surged in response to heightened demand, contributing to sky-high energy bills for many households, reflecting the market's response to supply constraints and increased operational costs for power generators and distributors.

Management Strategies and Response

Utility companies and grid operators have implemented various strategies to manage electricity demand and maintain grid reliability during the heatwave. These include voluntary conservation requests, load-shedding measures, and real-time monitoring of grid conditions to prevent power outages while avoiding potential blackouts or disruptions.

Community Outreach and Public Awareness

Amidst the heatwave, community outreach efforts play a crucial role in raising public awareness about energy conservation and safety measures. Residents are encouraged to conserve energy during peak hours, adjust thermostat settings, and utilize energy-efficient appliances to alleviate strain on the power grid and reduce overall energy costs.

Climate Change and Resilience

The intensity and frequency of heatwaves are exacerbated by climate change, underscoring the importance of building resilience in energy infrastructure and adopting sustainable practices. Investing in renewable energy sources, improving energy efficiency and demand response programs that can reduce peak demand, and implementing climate adaptation strategies are essential steps towards mitigating the impacts of extreme weather events like heatwaves.

Looking Ahead

As the Eastern U.S. navigates through this heatwave, stakeholders are focused on implementing lessons learned from California's grid response to enhance preparedness and resilience for future climate-related challenges. Collaborative efforts between government agencies, utility providers, and communities will be crucial in developing comprehensive strategies to manage energy demand, promote sustainability, and safeguard public health and well-being during extreme weather events.

Conclusion

The current heatwave in the Eastern United States has underscored the critical importance of reliable and resilient energy infrastructure in meeting the challenges posed by extreme weather conditions. By prioritizing energy efficiency, adopting sustainable energy practices, and fostering community resilience, stakeholders can work together to mitigate the impacts of heatwaves and ensure a sustainable energy future for generations to come.

 

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Ontario hydro rates set to increase Nov. 1, Ontario Energy Board says

Ontario Electricity Rebate clarifies hydro rates as OEB aligns bills with inflation, shows true cost per kilowatt hour, and replaces Fair Hydro Plan; transparent on-bill credit offsets increases tied to nuclear refurbishment and supply costs.

 

Key Points

A line-item credit on Ontario hydro bills that offsets higher electricity costs and reflects OEB-set rates.

✅ Starts Nov. 1 with rates in line with inflation

✅ Shows true per-kWh cost plus separate rebate line

✅ Driven by nuclear refurbishment and supply costs

 

The Ontario Energy Board says electricity rate changes for households and small businesses will be going up starting next week.

The agency says rates are scheduled to increased by about $1.99 or nearly 2% for a typical residential customer who uses 700 kilowatt hours per month.

The provincial government said in March it would continue to subsidize hydro rates, through legislation to lower rates, and hold any increases to the rate of inflation.

The OEB says the new rates, which the board says are “in line” with inflation, will take effect Nov. 1 as changes for electricity consumers roll out and could be noticed on bills within a few weeks of that date.

Prices are increasing partly due to government legislation aimed at reflecting the actual cost of supply on bills, and partly due to the refurbishment of nuclear facilities, contributing to higher hydro bills for some consumers.

So, effective November 1, Ontario electricity bills will show the true cost of power, after a period of a fixed COVID-19 hydro rate, and will include the new Ontario Electricity Rebate.

Previously the electricity rebate was concealed within the price-per-kilowatt-hour line item on electricity statements, prompting Hydro One bill redesign discussions to improve clarity. This meant customers could not see how much the government rebate was reducing their monthly costs, and bills did not display the true cost of electricity used.

"People deserve facts and accountability, especially when it comes to hydro costs," said Energy Minister Rickford.

The new Ontario Electricity Rebate will appear as a transparent on-bill line item and will replace the former government's Fair Hydro Plan says a government news release. This change comes in response to the Auditor General's special report on the former government's Fair Hydro Plan which revealed that "the government created a needlessly complex accounting/financing structure for the electricity rate reduction in order to avoid showing a deficit or an increase in net debt."

"The Electricity Distributors Association commends the government's commitment to making Ontario's electricity bills more transparent," said Teresa Sarkesian, President of the Electricity Distributors Association. "As the part of our electricity system that is closest to customers, local hydro utilities appreciated the opportunity to work with the government on implementing this important initiative. We worked to ensure that customers who receive their electricity bill will have a clear understanding of the true cost of power and the amount of their on-bill rebate. Local hydro utilities are focused on making electricity more affordable, reducing red tape, and providing customers with a modern and reliable electricity system that works for them."

The average customer will see the electricity line on their bill rise, showing the real cost per kilowatt hour. The new Ontario Electricity Rebate will compensate for that rise, and will be displayed as a separate line item on hydro bills. The average residential bill will rise in line with the rate of inflation.

 

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Ambitious clean energy target will mean lower electricity prices, modelling says

Australia Clean Energy Target drives renewables in the National Electricity Market, with RepuTex modelling and the Finkel Review showing lower wholesale prices and emissions as gas generators set prices less often under ambitious targets.

 

Key Points

Policy boosting low emissions generation to cut electricity emissions and lower wholesale prices across Australia.

✅ Ambitious targets lower wholesale prices through added generation

✅ RepuTex modelling shows renewables displace costly gas peakers

✅ Finkel Review suggests CET cuts emissions and boosts reliability

 

The more ambitious a clean energy target is, the lower Australian wholesale electricity prices will be, according to new modelling by energy analysis firm RepuTex.

The Finkel review, released last month recommended the government introduce a clean energy target (CET), which it found would cut emissions from the national electricity market and put downward pressure on both wholesale and retail prices, aligning with calls to favor consumers over generators in market design.

The Finkel review only modelled a CET that would cut emissions from the electricity sector by 28% below 2005 levels by 2030. But all available analysis has demonstrated that such a cut would not be enough to meet Australia’s overall emissions reductions made as part of the Paris agreement, which themselves were too weak to help meet the central aim of that agreement – to keep global warming to “well below 2C”.

RepuTex modelled the effect of a CET that cut emissions from the electricity sector by 28% – like that modelled in the Finkel Review – as well as one it said was consistent with 2C of global warming, which would cut emissions from electricity by 45% below 2005 levels by 2030.

It found both scenarios caused wholesale prices to drop significantly compared to doing nothing, despite IEA warnings on falling energy investment that could lead to shortages, with the more ambitious scenario resulting in lower wholesale prices between 2025 and 2030.

In the “business as usual scenario”, RepuTex found wholesale prices would hover roughly around the current price of $100 per MWh.

Under a CET that reduced electricity emissions by 28%, prices would drop to under $40 around 2023, and then rise to nearly $60 by 2030.

The more ambitious CET had a broadly similar effect on wholesale prices. But RepuTex found it would drive prices down a little slower, but then keep them down for longer, stabilising at about $40 to $50 for most of the 2020s.

It found a CET would drive prices down by incentivising more generation into the market. The more ambitious CET would further suppress prices by introducing more renewable energy, resulting in expensive gas generators less often being able to set the price of electricity in the wholesale market, a dynamic seen with UK natural gas price pressures recently.

The downward pressure of a CET on wholesale prices was more dramatic in the RepuTex report than in Finkel’s own modelling. But that was largely because, as Alan Finkel himself acknowledged, the estimates of the costs of renewable energy in the Finkel review modelling were conservative.

Speaking at the National Press Club, Finkel said: “We were conservative in our estimates of wind and large-scale solar generator prices. Indeed, in recent months the prices for wind generation have already come in lower than what we modelled.”

The RepuTex modelling also found the economics of the national electricity market no longer supported traditional baseload generation – such as coal power plants that were unable to respond flexibly to demand, with debates over power market overhauls in Alberta underscoring similar tensions – and so they would not be built without the government distorting the market.

“With a premium placed on flexible generation that can ramp up or down, baseload only generation – irrespective of how clean or dirty it is – is likely to be too inflexible to compete in Australia’s future electricity system,” the report said.

“In this context, renewable energy remains attractive to the market given it is able to deliver energy reliability, with no emissions, at low cost prices, with clean grid and battery trends in Canada informing the shift for policymakers. This affirms that renewables are a lay down misere to out-compete traditionally fossil-fuel sources in Australia for the foreseeable future.”

 

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