France's nuclear power poster child has a money meltdown

By Columbus Free Press


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The myth of a successful nuclear power industry in France has melted into financial chaos.

With it dies the corporate-hyped poster child for a "nuclear renaissance" of new reactor construction that is drowning in red ink and radioactive waste.

Areva, France's nationally owned corporate atomic façade, has plunged into a deep financial crisis led by a devastating shortage of cash.

Electricite de France, the French national utility, has been raided by European Union officials charging that its price-fixing may be undermining competition throughout the continent.

Delays and cost overruns continue to escalate at Areva's catastrophic Olkiluoto reactor construction project in Finland. Areva has admitted to a $2.2 billion, or 55%, cost increase in the Finnish building site after three and a half years. The Flamanville project — the only one now being built in France — is already over $1 billion more expensive than projected after a single year under construction.

In 2008, France's nuclear power output dropped 0.1%, while wind generation rose more than 37%.

Attempts to build new French reactors in the US are meeting stiffened resistance.

And the definitive failure of America's Yucca Mountain nuke waste dump mirrors France's parallel inability to deal with its own radioactive trash.

Widely portrayed as the model of corporate success, reactor-builder Areva is desperately short of money. As it begs a bailout from its dominant owner, the French government, Areva's mismanagement and overextension in promoting and building new reactors has wrecked its image in worldwide capital markets. According to Mycle Schneider, Paris-based author of "Nuclear Power in France — Beyond the Myth," Areva shares have plunged by over 60% since June 2008, twice as much as the CAC40, the standard indicator of the 40 largest French companies on the stock market.

Areva's hyper-active public relations department has made much of recent orders to build two new reactors in China. But it's now begging France's taxpayers for some $4 billion in short term bailout money, and may need still another $6 billion more to pay for investments in uranium mines, fuel production and heavy manufacturing ventures.

Areva will also need more than 2 billion Euros (about US$3 billion) to buy back shares in its nuclear reactor unit after Germany's Siemens pulled out of a joint venture. There have been significant, highly publicized bumps in the Chinese transaction. And Areva may now be forced to pony up billions more in penalties from delays and overruns at its reactor construction fiasco in Finland.

The Finnish government will also have to meet additional costs from trading in carbon emissions because it had firmly counted on the new reactor to supply "green" power as of this year. Olkiluoto is now not expected to deliver electricity before 2012.

Areva's woes have caused French President Nicolas Sarkozy to face possible job cuts and asset sales at the government-controlled energy giant, which was formed in 2001.

China's two-reactor order includes a promise from Areva to supply up to 20 years worth of nuclear fuel. Areva also hopes to sell at least seven reactors in the US, but these plans are meeting stiff resistance. Complex ownership and licensing battles have erupted at Constellation Energy, meant to be the conduit for two new reactors in Maryland.

Ratepayer revolts in Florida and Missouri have arisen over plans to force the public to pay for new reactors as they are being built. Electric rates in the Sunshine State have already begun to soar due to proposed nuke construction, prompting an angry grassroots upheaval.

The potential American reactor market has also been bloodied by the definitive disposal of the proposed high-level dump at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. After decades as the centerpiece of America's "solution" to the nuke waste problem, with at least $10 billion spent on it, Yucca's failure underscores France's own waste dilemma.

The French reprocessing center at La Hague has come under widespread attack for its massive radiation discharges into the English Channel and surrounding atmosphere. The plant has produced over nine thousand containers of extremely high level wastes with no safe place to go. Its by-product of plutonium has complicated global attempts to curb the spread of radioactive materials capable of being turned into nuclear bombs.

In addition to the reprocessing wastes, without a permanent repository of its own, France's 58 reactors have also accumulated over ten thousand tons of spent fuel rods, as the 104 units in the U.S. constantly generate.

Areva says it hopes to raise cash by selling part of a uranium enrichment plant under construction in southern France to Japan's Kansai Electric. Other asset sales may be hampered by slumping market values. Areva also hopes to partner with U.S. weapons builder Northrop Grumman to build heavy reactor equipment in Virginia.

But on March 11, European Union regulators raided EdF offices because "suspected illegal conduct may include actions to raise prices on the French wholesale electricity market." The stunning action against the massive conglomerate, which is 84.8% owned by the French government, could result in huge fines.

The EU says EdF may have manipulated prices and redrawn contracts for some 60 key corporate users. Nuke backers constantly tout that close to 80% of France's electricity comes from reactors whose power flows through EdF. But Areva's cash shortage and EdF's price-fixing scandal underscore the huge financial imbalances imposed by building and operating atomic reactors.

According to Schneider, "EDF's shares dropped by over 40% during the last six months alone. When management in February 2009 announced that larger than expected charges had corroded profits, share value dropped by 7% overnight and continued to fall since. The EDF share now stands 12% below the value when it was first introduced to the stock market in November 2005. Not really a brilliant investment."

EdF and Areva are at the core of what has been labeled as the global "nuclear renaissance." Their escalating money problems underscore an epic failure that has been a significant factor in the current global economic crisis. After a half- century of massive government subsidies in the U.S., UK, France and elsewhere, atomic energy still staggers under an unsustainable load of high construction costs and uncompetitive prices for the electricity it generates.

EdF's recent $17.5 billion takeover of nuke utility British Energy came with a warning from EdF officials that England's commitment to wind turbines could undermine the future of nuclear power. The statement evoked widespread astonishment and scorn from the environmental community.

In the financial community, concerns still linger over the half-trillion-dollar (and still climbing) cost of the 1986 explosion at Chernobyl. The instant $900 million conversion of the "asset" at Three Mile Island into an epic liability occurred 30 years ago this month. (The conversion of Michigan's Fermi I reactor at Monroe into a $100 million molten mess happened October 5, 1966).

The costs from the earthquake last year that crippled seven reactors at Japan's Kashiwazaki are still rising. The failure of Yucca Mountain has converted billions of dollars in utility and taxpayer investments into pure waste. Growing grassroots movements in Vermont and elsewhere threaten to cut off license extensions and shut American reactors at which decommissioning funds have been slashed by the collapse of U.S. investment funds.

The argument that atomic energy provides an answer for global warming turned to a deep embarrassment in France when reactors were forced to shut during the summer heat because they were raising river temperatures far beyond legal limits. In another case, a reactor containment had to be sprayed in order to cool it back to operational temperatures. Similar shutdowns came at a reactor in Alabama.

But as massive cost overruns and delays continue to escalate at Areva's showpiece reactor construction fiasco in Finland, the industry clamors for unlimited access to taxpayer funds. The surging stream of atomic failure continues to guarantee that private investors will instead favor true green technologies like solar, wind and efficiency.

Thus in France, as elsewhere, the "nuclear renaissance" may be stillborn. In 2007, world nuclear electricity generation dropped by an unprecedented 2%. According to Schneider, in 2008, for the first time in nuclear power history, no new reactor was connected to the grid anywhere on Earth.

As Schneider's "Nuclear Power in France — Beyond the Myth" points out, after 35 years of nuclear power development, the French "nuclear dreamland" gets only 16% of its final energy from nuclear power. Commissioned by the Greens-EFA Group in the European Parliament (Brussels, December, 2008), Schneider's report shows that despite its huge nuclear commitment, almost half of France's energy consumption still comes from oil.

In fact, says Schneider, "the wasteful nature of the French economy and households leads to a higher per capita consumption of oil than in Germany, Italy, the UK or even the EU on average.

"Those who think that nuclear power would be a cheap and clean way to render the U.S. less dependent on oil should have a close look at the French record."

At the French heart of its "renaissance," the nuclear clock is winding down, not up. Time is running out for a radioactive technology that, after fifty years, remains unable to muster a sustainable level of private financing, shows no real promise of ever paying for itself, and has now plunged into deepening financial chaos.

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RBC agrees to buy electricity from new southern Alberta solar power farm project

RBC Renewable Energy PPA supports a 39 MW Alberta solar project, with Bullfrog Power and BluEarth Renewables, advancing clean energy in a deregulated market through a long-term power purchase agreement in Canada today.

 

Key Points

A long-term power purchase agreement where RBC buys most output from a 39 MW Alberta solar project via Bullfrog Power.

✅ 39 MW solar build in County of Forty Mile, Alberta

✅ Majority of output purchased by RBC via Bullfrog Power

✅ Supports cost-competitive renewables in deregulated market

 

The Royal Bank of Canada says it is the first Canadian bank to sign a long-term renewable energy power purchase agreement, a deal that will support the development of a 39-megawatt, $70-million solar project in southern Alberta, within an energy powerhouse province.

The bank has agreed with green energy retailer Bullfrog Power to buy the majority of the electricity produced by the project, as a recent federal green electricity contract highlights growing demand, to be designed and built by BluEarth Renewables of Calgary.

The project is to provide enough power for over 6,400 homes and the panel installations will cover 120 hectares, amid a provincial renewable energy surge that could create thousands of jobs, the size of 170 soccer fields.

The solar installation is to be built in the County of Forty Mile, a hot spot for renewable power that was also chosen by Suncor Energy Inc. for its $300-million 200-MW wind power project (approved last year and then put on hold during the COVID-19 pandemic), and home to another planned wind power farm in Alberta.

BluEarth says commercial operations at its Burdett and Yellow Lake Solar Project are expected to start up in April 2021, underscoring solar power growth in the province.

READ MORE: Wind power developers upbeat about Alberta despite end of power project auctions

It says the agreement shows that renewable energy can be cost-competitive, with lower-cost solar contracts in a deregulated electricity market like Alberta’s, adding the province has some of the best solar and wind resources in Canada.

“We’re proud to be the first Canadian bank to sign a long-term renewable energy power purchase agreement, demonstrating our commitment to clean, sustainable power, as Alberta explores selling renewable energy at scale,” said Scott Foster, senior vice-president and global head of corporate real estate at RBC.

 

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California Skirts Blackouts With Heat Wave to Test Grid Again

California Heatwave Power Crisis strains CAISO as record demand triggers emergency alerts, demand response, and rolling blackout warnings. PG&E prepares outages while solar fades at peak, drought cuts hydropower, and reliability hinges on conservation.

 

Key Points

Extreme heat driving record demand in California, straining CAISO and prompting conservation to avert rolling blackouts.

✅ CAISO hit a record 52 GW peak load amid triple-digit heat

✅ Emergency alerts spurred demand response, cutting load spikes

✅ Solar drop and drought-weakened hydro worsened evening shortfall

 

California narrowly avoided blackouts for a second successive day even as blistering temperatures pushed electricity demand to a record and stretched the state’s power grid close to its limits.

The state imposed its highest level of energy emergency for several hours late Tuesday and urged consumers to turn off lights, curb air conditioners and shut off power-hungry appliances after a day of extraordinary stress on electricity infrastructure as temperatures in many regions topped 110 degrees Fahrenheit (43 Celsius).

Electricity use had reached 52 gigawatts Tuesday, easily breaking a record that stood since 2006, according to the California Independent System Operator. The state issued emergency alerts direct to cell phones in several counties asking for immediate power conservation, and grid data show that demand plunged in response. Emergency measures were finally lifted at about 9 p.m. local time.

Much of California remains under an excessive heat warning through Friday, with authorities already preparing for more severe pressure on the power system on Wednesday amid a looming supply shortage across the grid. “We aren’t out of the woods yet,” Governor Gavin Newsom said in a message posted on his office’s Twitter account. “We will see continued extreme temps this week and if we rallied today, we can do it again.”

The state’s largest power company, PG&E Corp. said earlier Tuesday that it had notified about 525,000 homes and businesses that they could lose power for up to two hours. That warning came as temperatures in downtown Sacramento hit 116 degrees Fahrenheit, topping a previous 1925 record.

Newsom earlier signed an executive order extending until Friday emergency measures to free up additional power supplies, rather than allowing them to expire as planned on Wednesday. Many state buildings were ordered to power down lights and air conditioning at 4 p.m., and he urged residents and businesses to conserve the equivalent of 3 gigawatts of power in order to stave off blackouts. 

California's Early Brush With Blackouts Bodes Ill For Days Ahead
The downtown skyline during a heatwave in Los Angeles.Photographer: Eric Thayer/Bloomberg
California faced a similar energy emergency Monday, which was alleviated in part by activating temporary gas-fired power plants operated by the California Department of Water Resources. The current heat wave, which began in the last week of August, is remarkable in both its ferocity and duration, according to officials. 

The prospect of outages underscores how grids have become vulnerable in the face of extreme weather as California transitions from fossil fuels to renewable energy, an approach it is increasingly exporting to Western states as well. California's climate policies have aggressively closed natural-gas power plants in recent years, leaving the state increasingly dependent on solar farms that go dark late in the day just as electricity demand peaks. At the same time, the state is enduring the Southwest’s worst drought in 1,200 years, sapping hydropower production.

The average 15-minute wholesale power price in Caiso surged to $1,806 a megawatt-hour at 4:45 p.m. local time, according to the grid operator’s website.

Average day-ahead prices top $300 a megawatt-hour in Southern California
  
A break from the heat will come across Southern California later this week, thanks to Tropical Storm Kay in the Pacific Ocean, according to weather officials. Kay is forecast to edge up the coastline of Mexico’s Baja California peninsula. As it moves north, the storm will pump moisture and clouds into Southern California and Arizona, taking an edge off the heat.

 

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Canada expected to miss its 2035 clean electricity goals

Canada 2035 Clean Electricity Target faces a 48.4GW shortfall as renewable capacity lags; accelerating wind, solar PV, grid upgrades, and coherent federal-provincial policy is vital to reach zero-emissions power and strengthen transmission and distribution.

 

Key Points

Canada's plan to supply nearly 100% of electricity from zero-emitting sources by 2035, requiring renewable buildout.

✅ Average adds 2.6GW; shortfall totals 48.4GW by 2035

✅ Expand wind, solar PV, storage, and grid modernization

✅ Align federal-province policy; retire or convert thermal plants

 

GlobalData’s latest report, ‘Canada Power Market Size and Trends by Installed Capacity, Generation, Transmission, Distribution and Technology, Regulations, Key Players and Forecast, 2022-2035’, discusses the power market structure of Canada and, amid looming power challenges, provides historical and forecast numbers for capacity, generation and consumption up to 2035. Detailed analysis of the country’s power market regulatory structure, competitive landscape and a list of major power plants are provided. The report also gives a snapshot of the power sector in the country on broad parameters of macroeconomics, supply security, generation infrastructure, transmission and distribution infrastructure, electricity import and export scenario, degree of competition, regulatory scenario, and future potential. An analysis of the deals in the country’s power sector is also included in the report.

Canada is expected to fall short of its 2035 clean electricity target after reviewing the country’s current renewable capacity activity. The country has targeted to produce nearly 100% of its electricity from zero-emitting sources by 2035, while electricity associations' net-zero goals extend to 2050; however, the country is adding only 2.6GW of annual renewable capacity additions on average every year, which would mean a cumulative shortfall of 48.4GW.

Canada has good governmental support, but it is not doing enough to ensure its targets are met. If the country is to meet its target to produce nearly 100% of electricity from zero-emitting sources by 2035, the country should both increase the capacity and efficiency of renewable power plants, as well as provide comprehensive end-to-end policies at both the federal and provincial levels, as debates over whether Ontario is embracing clean power continue across provinces. It should also involve communities and businesses in raising awareness of the benefits of adopting renewable energy.

The country has a large amount of proven natural gas and oil reserves that are proving too tempting an opportunity, and the Canadian Government is planning to increase the capacity of its gas-based plants under net-zero regulations permit some gas in the power mix, to secure real-time demand and supply. However, the country’s dependency on gas-based plants creates a major challenge to achieve its 2035 clean electricity target.

If the Canadian Government is to meet its 2035 targets, it should draw on examples from its European counterparts and add renewable capacity at a rapid pace, while balancing demand and emissions in key provinces. One advantage for Canada here is that it does not have land constraints, which is common in other major renewable power-generating countries. This could give the country an estimated 6.1GW of renewable capacity every year on average during the 2021-2035 period: enough capacity to meet its target. Most of these installations are expected to be for wind and solar PV.

Changing provincial governments are not helpful when it comes to implementing long-term projects, especially as Ontario faces looming electricity shortfalls that heighten planning risks, and continued stopping and starting of projects like this will only be damaging to renewable goals. Another way the country can achieve its target is by converting thermal power plants into clean energy plants and providing a roadmap or timeline for provinces to retire thermal power plants completely, even as scrapping coal can be costly for some systems.

Canada’s GDP (at constant prices) increased from $1,617.3bn in 2010 to $1,924.5bn in 2021, at a CAGR of 1.6%. The GDP (at constant prices) of the country declined sharply from $1,943.8bn in 2019 to $1,840.5bn in 2020 because of Covid-19 pandemic. After the recommencement of regular industrial and trade activities, the GDP grew by 4.6% in 2021 from 2020. The GDP is expected to cross pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2022.

 

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National Grid and SSE to use electrical transformers to heat homes

Grid Transformer Waste Heat Recovery turns substations into neighborhood boilers, supplying district heating via heat networks, helping National Grid and SSE cut emissions, boost energy efficiency, and advance low carbon, net zero decarbonization.

 

Key Points

Grid Transformer Waste Heat Recovery captures substation heat for district heating, cutting emissions and gas use.

✅ Captures waste heat from National Grid transformers

✅ Feeds SSE district heat networks for nearby homes

✅ Cuts carbon, improves efficiency, aligns with net zero

 

Thousands of homes could soon be warmed by the heat from giant electricity grid transformers for the first time as part of new plans to harness “waste heat” and cut carbon emissions from home heating.

Trials are due to begin on how to capture the heat generated by transmission network transformers, owned by National Grid, to provide home heating for households connected to district heating networks operated by SSE.

Currently, hot air is vented from the giant substations to help cool the transformers that help to control the electricity running through National Grid’s high-voltage transmission lines.

However, if the trial succeeds, about 1,300 National Grid substations could soon act as neighbourhood “boilers”, piping water heated by the substations into nearby heating networks, and on into the thousands of homes that use SSE’s services.

“Electric power transformers generate huge amounts of heat as a byproduct when electricity flows through them. At the moment, this heat is just vented directly into the atmosphere and wasted,” said Nathan Sanders, the managing director of SSE Energy Solutions.

“This groundbreaking project aims to capture that waste heat and effectively turn transformers into community ‘boilers’ that serve local heat networks with a low- or even zero-carbon alternative to fossil-fuel-powered heat sources such as gas boilers, a shift akin to a gas-for-electricity swap in heating markets,” Sanders added.

Alexander Yanushkevich, National Grid’s innovation manager, said the scheme was “essential to achieve net zero” and a “great example of how, taking a whole-system approach, including power-to-gas in Europe precedents, the UK can lead the way in helping accelerate decarbonisation”.

The energy companies believe the scheme could initially reduce heat network carbon emissions by more than 40% compared with fossil gas systems. Once the UK’s electricity system is zero carbon, and with recent milestones where wind was the main source of UK electricity on the grid, the heating solution could play a big role in helping the UK meet its climate targets.

The first trials have begun at National Grid’s specially designed testing site at Deeside in Wales to establish how the waste heat could be used in district heating networks. Once complete, the intellectual property will be shared with smaller regional electricity network owners, which may choose to roll out schemes in their areas.

Tim O’Reilly, the head of strategy at National Grid, said: “We have 1,300 transmission transformers, but there’s no reason why you couldn’t apply this technology to smaller electricity network transformers, too, echoing moves to use more electricity for heat in colder regions.”

Once the trials are complete, National Grid and SSE will have a better idea of how many homes could be warmed using the heat generated by electricity network substations, O’Reilly said, and how the heat can be used in ways that complement virtual power plants for grid resilience.

“The heavier the [electricity] load, which typically reaches a peak at around teatime, the more heat energy the transformer will be able to produce, aligning with times when wind leads the power mix nationally. So it fits quite nicely to when people require heat in the evenings,” he added.

Other projects designed to capture waste heat to use in district heating schemes include trapping the heat generated on the Northern line of London’s tube network to warm homes in Islington, and harnessing the geothermal heat from disused mines for district heating networks in Durham.

Only between 2% and 3% of the UK is connected to a district heating network, but more networks are expected to emerge in the years ahead as the UK tries to reduce the carbon emissions from homes, alongside its nuclear power plans in the wider energy strategy.

 

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Integrating AI Data Centers into Canada's Electricity Grids

Canada AI Data Center Grid Integration aligns AI demand with renewable energy, energy storage, and grid reliability. It emphasizes transmission upgrades, liquid cooling efficiency, and policy incentives to balance economic growth with sustainable power.

 

Key Points

Linking AI data centers to Canada's grid with renewables, storage, and efficiency to ensure reliable, sustainable power.

✅ Diversify supply with wind, solar, hydro, and firm low-carbon resources

✅ Deploy grid-scale batteries to balance peaks and enhance reliability

✅ Upgrade transmission, distribution, and adopt liquid cooling efficiency

 

Artificial intelligence (AI) is revolutionizing various sectors, driving demand for data centers that support AI applications. In Canada, this surge in data center development presents both economic opportunities and challenges for the electricity grid, where utilities using AI to adapt to evolving demand dynamics. Integrating AI-focused data centers into Canada's electricity infrastructure requires strategic planning to balance economic growth with sustainable energy practices.​

Economic and Technological Incentives

Canada has been at the forefront of AI research for over three decades, establishing itself as a global leader in the field. The federal government has invested significantly in AI initiatives, with over $2 billion allocated in 2024 to maintain Canada's competitive edge and to align with a net-zero grid by 2050 target nationwide. Provincial governments are also actively courting data center investments, recognizing the economic and technological benefits these facilities bring. Data centers not only create jobs and stimulate local economies but also enhance technological infrastructure, supporting advancements in AI and related fields.​

Challenges to the Electricity Grid

However, the energy demands of AI data centers pose significant challenges to Canada's electricity grid, mirroring the power challenge for utilities seen in the U.S., as demand rises. The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) has raised concerns about the growing electricity consumption driven by AI, noting that the current power generation capacity may struggle to meet this increasing demand, while grids are increasingly exposed to harsh weather conditions that threaten reliability as well. This situation could lead to reliability issues, including potential blackouts during peak demand periods, jeopardizing both economic activities and the progress of AI initiatives.​

Strategic Integration Approaches

To effectively integrate AI data centers into Canada's electricity grids, a multifaceted approach is essential:

  1. Diversifying Energy Sources: Relying solely on traditional energy sources may not suffice to meet the heightened demands of AI data centers. Incorporating renewable energy sources, such as wind, solar, and hydroelectric power, can provide sustainable alternatives. For instance, Alberta has emerged as a proactive player in supporting AI-enabled data centers, with the TransAlta data centre agreement expected to advance this momentum, leveraging its renewable energy potential to attract such investments.
     

  2. Implementing Energy Storage Solutions: Integrating large-scale battery storage systems can help manage the intermittent nature of renewable energy. These systems store excess energy generated during low-demand periods, releasing it during peak times to stabilize the grid. In some communities, AI-driven grid upgrades complement storage deployments to optimize operations, which supports data center needs and community reliability.
     

  3. Enhancing Grid Infrastructure: Upgrading transmission and distribution networks is crucial to handle the increased load from AI data centers. Strategic investments in grid infrastructure can prevent bottlenecks and ensure efficient energy delivery, including exploration of macrogrids in Canada to improve regional transfers, supporting both existing and new data center operations.​
     

  4. Adopting Energy-Efficient Data Center Designs: Designing data centers with energy efficiency in mind can significantly reduce their power consumption. Innovations such as liquid cooling systems are being explored to manage the heat generated by high-density AI workloads, offering more efficient alternatives to traditional air cooling methods.

  5. Establishing Collaborative Policies: Collaboration among government entities, utility providers, and data center operators is vital to align energy policies with technological advancements. Developing regulatory frameworks that incentivize sustainable practices can guide the growth of AI data centers in harmony with grid capabilities.​
     

Integrating AI data centers into Canada's electricity grids presents both significant opportunities and challenges. By adopting a comprehensive strategy that includes diversifying energy sources, implementing advanced energy storage, enhancing grid infrastructure, promoting energy-efficient designs, and fostering collaborative policies, Canada can harness the benefits of AI while ensuring a reliable and sustainable energy future. This balanced approach will position Canada as a leader in both AI innovation and sustainable energy practices.

 

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Covid-19: Secrets of lockdown lifestyle laid bare in electricity data

Lockdown Electricity Demand Trends reveal later mornings, weaker afternoons, and delayed peaks as WFH, streaming, and video conferencing reshape energy demand curves, grid forecasting, and residential electricity usage across Europe, New York, Tokyo, and Singapore.

 

Key Points

Shifts in power use during lockdowns: later ramps, weaker afternoons, and higher, delayed evening peaks.

✅ Morning ramp starts later; midday demand dips

✅ Evening peak shifts 1-2 hours; higher late-night usage

✅ WFH and streaming raise residential load; industrial demand falls

 

Life in lockdown means getting up late, staying up till midnight and slacking off in the afternoons.

That’s what power market data in Europe show in the places where restrictions on activity have led to a widespread shift in daily routines of hundreds of millions of people.

It’s a similar story wherever lockdowns bite. In New York City electricity use has fallen as much as 18% from normal times at 8am. Tokyo and three nearby prefectures had a 5% drop in power use during weekdays after Japan declared a state of emergency on April 7, according to Tesla Asia Pacific, an energy forecaster.

Italy’s experience shows the trend most clearly since the curbs started there on March 5, before any other European country. Data from the grid operator Terna SpA gives a taste of what other places are also now starting to report, with global daily demand dips observed in many markets as well.


1. People are sleeping later

With no commute to the office people can sleep longer. Normally, electricity demand began to pick up between 6 a.m. and 8 a.m. Now in Germany, it’s clear coffee machines don’t go on until between 8 a.m. and 9 a.m., said Simon Rathjen, founder of the trading company MFT Energy A/S.

Germany, France and Italy -- which between them make up almost two thirds of the euro-zone economy -- all have furlough measures that allow workers to receive a salary while temporarily suspended from their jobs. The U.K. also has a support package. Many of these workers will be getting up later.

"Now I have quite a relaxed start to the morning,” said David Freeman, an analyst in financial services from London. "I don’t get up until about half an hour before I need to start work.”

2. Less productive afternoons

There is a deeper dip in electricity use in the afternoons. Previously, power use rose between 2pm and 5pm. Now it dips as people head out for a walk or some air, according to UK demand data from National Grid Plc

It’s "as though we are living through a month of Sundays”, said Iain Staffell, senior lecturer in sustainable energy at Imperial College London.

3. Evenings in

From 6pm electricity use begins to rise steeply as people finish work and start chores. Restrictions like work and home schooling that prevent much daytime TV watching lifts in the early evening. This following chart for Germany shows the evening peak for power use coming during later hours.

The evening is when electricity use is highest, with most people confined to their homes. Netflix Inc reported a record 15.8 million paid subscribers – almost double the figure forecast by Wall Street analysts. Video-streaming services like Netflix and YouTube have found a captive audience. The new Disney+ service surpassed 50 million subscribers in just five months, a faster pace than predicted.

Internet traffic is skyrocketing, with a surge in bandwidth-intensive applications like streaming services and Zoom. This may mean that monthly broadband consumption of as much as 600 gigabytes, about 35% higher than before, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.

In Singapore, electricity use has dropped off significantly since the country’s "circuit-breaker” efforts to keep people at home began April 7. Electricity use has fallen and stayed low during the day. But late at night is a different story, as power demand fell sharply immediately after the lockdown began, it has steadily crept back in the past two weeks, perhaps a sign that Tiger King and The Last Dance have been finding late-night fans in the city state.

In Ottawa, COVID-19 closures made it seem as if the city had fallen off the electricity grid, according to local reports.

4. Staying up late

We’re going to bed later too. Demand doesn’t start to drop off until 10pm to 12am, at least an hour later than before.

"My children are definitely going to bed later,” said Liz Stevens, a teaching assistant from London. "Our whole routine is out the window.”

It’s challenging for those that need to predict behaviour – power grids and electricity traders. Forecasting is based on historical data, and there isn’t anything to go into the models gauging use now.

The closest we can get is looking at big events like football World Championships when people are all sitting down at the same time, according to Rathjen at MFT.

"Forecasting demand right now is very tricky,” said Chris Kimmett, director of power grids at Reactive Technologies Ltd. "A global pandemic is uncharted territory."

What normal looks like when the crisis passes is also an open question. Different countries are set to unravel their measures in their own ways, and global power demand has already surged above pre-pandemic levels in some analyses, with Germany and Austria loosening restrictions first and Italy remaining under tight control. Some changes may be permanent, with both workers and employers becoming more comfortable with working from home.

5. Different sectors consume more

In China, which is further along recovering from the pandemic than Europe or the US, the sharp contraction in overall power output masks a shift in daily routines.

Eating habits have changed. Restaurants are expanding delivery and even offering grocery services as the preference for dining at home persists. Household electricity consumption in China probably increased from activities such as cooking and heating, according to IHS Markit, which said that residential demand rose by 2.4% in the first two months as people stayed in.

The increase in technology use also drove China’s power demand from the telecom and web-service sectors to rise by 27%, the consultancy said.

Overall, China power demand in the first quarter of the year fell 6.5% from the same period in 2019 to 1.57 trillion kilowatt-hours, China’s National Energy Administration said last week. Industry uses about 70% of the country’s electricity, while the commercial sector and households account for 14% each. – Bloomberg

 

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