Idaho Power must sell energy credits — PUC

By Associated Press


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After complaints by Idaho Power Co.'s largest customers, regulators have ordered the state's biggest utility to sell about $2 million worth of renewable energy credits and use the money to benefit ratepayers, instead of retiring or banking the credits in expectation of new federal laws requiring more renewable energy generation.

The recent decision by the Idaho Public Utilities Commission reverses its January 28 ruling to allow Idaho Power to hold on to the credits.

Idaho Power wanted to take the credits, known as "Green Tags," off the market or bank them. That would have allowed the utility to publicly tout its commitment to renewable energy — or use the credits in the future to help meet new renewable energy standards. The U.S. Senate is considering legislation to require the country to generate up to 15 percent of its power from renewable resources, including wind and solar, by 2021.

But the Industrial Customers of Idaho Power, a group that includes the J.R. Simplot Co., argued the tags should be sold and the proceeds turned into savings for all Idaho Power customers.

The three-member commission found "no compelling evidence" that banking the tags would "lessen the company's burden in meeting a future federal standard," the panel wrote in its latest decision. "Unless and until the federal government establishes renewable energy standards and corresponding guidelines, we find the most prudent disposition of these Green Tags, at this time, is their sale."

"We have the commission's order and we're in the process of reviewing and digesting it," said Stephanie McCurdy, a spokeswoman in Boise.

The credits consist of 320,000 megawatt hours of Green Tags generated in 2007 and 2008 from Idaho Power's Elkhorn Wind project in Oregon and the Raft River geothermal plant near Malta in southern Idaho.

If Idaho Power continues to sell Green Tags from the plants, it loses the right to claim any environmental attributes gained from those resources. Whoever buys and retires the credits would be able to claim that it bought renewable energy.

The Industrial Customers of Idaho Power argued that retiring the credits would hurt ratepayers, just so the utility could say it was a green company.

That goal "may or may not be a laudable one," the group's lawyer, Peter Richardson, wrote in documents filed with the commission. "However, the cost of such image advertising needs to be examined in light of the company's current advertising budget. There is nothing in the record suggesting that the approximately $2 million loss to the ratepayers is reasonable in light of the other funds the ratepayers are providing Idaho Power for image advertising."

Idaho Power is under increasing scrutiny over how it generates power to serve more than 487,000 residential customers. In 2008, it generated 40 percent of its electricity from coal-fired plants; 38 percent from dams; 1 percent from gas or diesel plants; and bought 21 percent of its electricity from others.

Just recently, 52 percent of shareholders backed a resolution at Idaho Power's annual meeting, urging the utility to do more to bolster its renewable energy portfolio and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Environmental groups, including the Idaho Conservation League and the Renewable Northwest Project, based in Portland, Ore., had wanted the regulators to stick with their original decision.

"Idaho Power and its customers will reap many benefits by retaining the environmental attributes of renewable energy purchases," the groups argued in PUC documents. "First, Idaho Power will be ahead of the game in our current regulatory climate. Most importantly, Idaho Power will be able to comply with Oregon's Renewable Portfolio Standard in 2025, which will require at least 10 percent of electricity serving to come from renewable resources."

Retiring the Green Tags would also help the company meet any new greenhouse gas emissions standards, the groups said.

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Opp Leader calls for electricity market overhaul to favor consumers over generators

Labor National Electricity Market Reform aims to rebalance NEM rules, support a fair-dinkum clean energy target, enable renewable zones, bolster storage and grid reliability, empower households, and unlock CEFC investment via the Finkel review.

 

Key Points

Labor's plan to overhaul NEM rules for households, clean energy targets, renewable zones, storage, and CEFC investment.

✅ Revises NEM rules to curb big generators' market power

✅ Backs a clean energy target informed by the Finkel review

✅ Expands renewable zones, storage, and CEFC finance

 

Australia's Labor leader Bill Shorten has called for significant changes to the rules governing the national electricity market, saying they are biased in favour of big energy generators, leaving households worse off even with measures like a WA electricity bill credit in place.

He said the national electricity market (NEM) rules are designed to help the big companies recoup the money they spent on purchasing government assets, a dynamic echoed in debates like a Calgary market overhaul dispute unfolding in Canada, rather than encourage households to generate their own power, and they need to change faster to adapt to consumer needs.

His comments hint at a possible overhaul of the NEM’s governance structure under a future Labor government, because the current rule-making process is too cumbersome and slow, with suggested rules changes taking years to be introduced.

Daniel Andrews defends claims that civil liberties a 'luxury' in fight against terrorism

Labor had promoted a similar idea in the lead-up to the 2016 election, with its call for an electricity modernization review, but now the Finkel review has been released it would be used to guide such a review.

In a speech to the Australian Financial Review’s National Energy Summit in Sydney on Monday, Shorten recommitted Labor to negotiating a “fair-dinkum” clean energy target with the Turnbull government, amid modelling that a strong clean energy target can lower electricity prices, saying “it’s time to put away the weapons of the climate change wars” and work together to find a way forward.

He said the media and business can all share the blame for Australia’s lost decade of energy policy development, with examples abroad showing how leadership steers change, such as in Alberta where Kenney's influence on power policy has been pronounced, but “we need to stop spoiling for a fight and start seeking a solution”.

“The scare campaigns and hyper-partisanship that got Australia into this mess, will not get us out of it,” he will say.

“That’s why, a bit over four months ago, before the chief scientist released his report, I wrote to the prime minister offering an olive branch.

“I said Labor was prepared to move from our preferred position of an emissions intensity scheme and negotiate a fair-dinkum clean energy target.

“That offer was greeted with some cynicism in the media. But let me be crystal clear – I made that offer in good faith, and that offer still stands.”

Shorten said Australia needs to resolve the current “gas crisis” and do more to drive investment in renewable energy that delivers more reliable electricity, a priority underscored by the IEA's warning that falling global energy investment risks shortages, and if Labor wins the next election it will organise Australia into a series of renewable energy zones – as recommended by the chief scientist, Alan Finkel – that identify wind, solar, pumped hydro and geothermal resources, and connect them to the existing network.

“These zones would be based on both existing generation and storage in the area – and the potential for future development,” he said.

Australia's politics only barrier to clean energy system, report finds

“Identifying these zones – from eastern Queensland, north-east New South Wales, west Victoria, the Eyre Peninsula in South Australia and the entire state of Tasmania – will also plant a flag for investors – signalling future sites for job-creating projects.”

Shorten also said Labor will free up the Clean Energy Finance Corporation to invest in more generation and more storage.

“Under Labor, the return benchmark for the CEFC was set at the weighted average of the Australian government bond rate.

“Under this government, it was initially increased to the weighted average plus 4% to 5% and is now set at the average plus 3% to 4%.

“Setting the return benchmark too high defeats the driving purpose of the CEFC and it holds back the crucial investment Australia needs – right now – in new generation and storage.

“This is why a Labor government would restore the original benchmark return of the Clean Energy Finance Corporation, to invest in more generation, more storage and more jobs.”

 

 

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End of an Era: UK's Last Coal Power Station Goes Offline

UK Coal-Free Energy Transition highlights the West Burton A closure, accelerating renewable energy, wind, solar, nuclear, energy storage, smart grid upgrades, decarbonization, and net-zero goals while ensuring reliability, affordability, and a just transition for workers.

 

Key Points

A nationwide shift from coal power to renewables, storage, and nuclear to meet net-zero while maintaining reliability.

✅ West Burton A closure ends UK coal-fired generation

✅ Wind, solar, nuclear, storage strengthen grid resilience

✅ Government backs a just transition and worker retraining

 

The United Kingdom marks a historic turning point in its energy transition with the closure of the West Burton A Power Station in Nottinghamshire. This coal-fired power plant, once a symbol of the nation's industrial might, has now delivered its final watts of electricity to the grid, signalling the end of coal power generation in the UK.


A Landmark Shift Towards Clean Energy

The closure of West Burton A reflects a dramatic shift in the UK's energy landscape. Coal, the backbone of the UK's power generation for decades, is being phased out in favour of renewable energy sources like wind, solar, and nuclear. This transition aligns with the UK's ambitious net-zero emissions target, which aims to radically decarbonize the country's economy by 2050, though progress can falter, as when low-carbon generation stalled in 2019 amid changing market conditions.


Changing Energy Landscape

In the past, coal-fired power plants provided reliable, on-demand power. However, growing awareness of their significant environmental impact, particularly their contribution to climate change,  has accelerated the move away from coal. The UK government has set clear targets for eliminating coal power generation, and the industry has seen a steady decline as the share of coal fell to record lows in the electricity system.


Renewables Fill the Gap

The remarkable growth of renewable energy sources has enabled the transition away from coal. Wind and solar power, in particular, have experienced rapid development and falling costs, and in 2016 wind generated more electricity than coal for the first time. The UK now boasts substantial offshore and onshore wind farms and extensive solar installations. Additionally, investments in nuclear power and emerging energy storage technologies are increasing the reliability and diversity of the UK's power grid.


Economic and Social Impacts

The closure of the last coal-fired power station carries both economic and social impacts. While this change represents a victory for environmentalists, marked by milestones like a full week without coal power in Britain, the end of coal mining and power generation will lead to job losses in communities traditionally reliant on these industries.  The government has committed to supporting affected regions and facilitating a "just transition" for workers by retraining and creating new opportunities in the clean energy sector.


Global Implications

The UK's commitment to a coal-free future serves as a powerful example for other nations seeking to decarbonize their energy systems, including peers where Alberta's last coal plant closed recently. The nation's experience demonstrates that a transition to renewable energy sources is both possible and necessary. However, it also highlights the importance of careful planning and addressing the social and economic impacts of such a rapid energy revolution.


The Road Ahead

While the closure of West Burton A Power Station marks a historic milestone, the UK's transition to clean energy is far from complete. Maintaining a reliable and affordable energy supply, even as coal-free power records raise questions about energy bills, will require continued investment in renewable energy sources, energy storage, and advanced grid technologies.

 

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Net-zero roadmap can cut electricity costs by a third in Germany - Wartsila

Germany net-zero roadmap charts coal phase-out by 2030, rapid renewables buildout, energy storage, and hydrogen-ready gas engines to cut emissions and lower LCOE by 34%, unlocking a resilient, flexible, low-cost power system by 2040.

 

Key Points

Plan to phase out coal by 2030 and gas by 2040, scaling renewables, storage, and hydrogen to cut LCOE and emissions.

✅ Coal out by 2030; gas phased 2040 with hydrogen-ready engines

✅ Add 19 GW/yr renewables; 30 GW storage by 2040

✅ 34% lower LCOE, 23% fewer emissions vs slower path

 

Germany can achieve significant reductions in emissions and the cost of electricity by phasing out coal in 2030 under its coal phase-out plan but must have a clear plan to ramp up renewables and pivot to sustainable fuels in order to achieve net-zero, according to a new whitepaper from Wartsila.

The modelling, published in Wärtsilä new white paper ‘Achieving net-zero power system in Germany by 2040’, compares the current plan to phase out coal by 2030 and gas by 2045 with an accelerated plan, where gas is phased out by 2040. By accelerating the path to net-zero, Germany can unlock a 34% reduction in the levelised cost of energy, as well as a 23% reduction in the total emissions, or 562 million tonnes of carbon dioxide in real terms.

The modelling offers a clear, three-step roadmap to achieve net-zero: rapidly increase renewables, energy storage and begin future-proofing gas engines in this decade; phase out coal by 2030; and phase out gas by 2040, converting remaining engines to run on sustainable fuels.

The greatest rewards are available if Germany front-loads decarbonisation. This can be done by rapidly increasing renewable capacity, adding 19 GW of wind and solar PV capacity per year. It must also add a total of 30GW of energy storage by 2040.

Håkan Agnevall, President and CEO of Wärtsilä Corporation said: “Germany stands on the precipice of a new, sustainable energy era. The new Federal Government has indicated its plans to consign coal to history by 2030. However, this is only step one. Our white paper demonstrates the need to implement a three-step roadmap to achieve net-zero. It is time to put a deadline on fossil fuels and create a clear plan to transition to sustainable fuels.”

While a rapid coal phase-out has been at the centre of recent climate policy debates, including the ongoing nuclear debate over Germany’s energy mix, the pathway to net-zero is less clear. Wärtsilä’s modelling shows that gas engines should be used to accelerate the transition by providing a short-term bridge to enable net zero and navigate the energy transition while balancing the intermittency of renewables until sustainable fuels are available at scale.

However, if Germany follows the slower pathway and reaches net-zero by 2045, it risks becoming reliant on gas as baseload power for much of the 2030s amid renewable expansion challenges that persist, potentially harming its ability to reach its climate goals. 

Creating the infrastructure to pivot to sustainable fuels is one of the greatest challenges facing the German system. The ability to convert existing capacity to run purely on hydrogen via hydrogen-ready power plants will be key to reaching net-zero by 2040 and unlocking the significant system-wide benefits on offer.

Jan Andersson, General Manager of Market Development in Germany, Wärtsilä Energy added: “To reach the 2040 target and unlock the greatest benefits, the most important thing that Germany can do is build renewables now. 19 GW is an ambitious target, but Germany can do it. History shows us that Germany has been able to achieve high levels of renewable buildout in previous years. It must now reach those levels consistently.

“Creating a clear plan which sets out the steps to net zero is essential. Renewable energy is inherently intermittent, so flexible energy capacity will play a vital role. While batteries provide effective short-term flexibility, gas is currently the only practical long-term option. If Germany is to unlock the greatest benefits from decarbonisation, it must have a clear plan to integrate sustainable fuel. From 2030, all new thermal capacity must run solely on hydrogen.”

Analysis of the last decade demonstrates that the rapid expansion of renewable energy is possible, and that renewables overtook coal and nuclear in generation. Previously, Germany has built large amounts of renewable capacity, including 8GW of solar PV in 2010 and 2011, 5.3 GW of onshore wind in 2017, and 2.5 GW of offshore wind in 2015.

The significant reductions in the cost of electricity demonstrated in the modelling are driven by the fact that renewables are far cheaper to run than coal or gas plants, even as coal still provides about a third of electricity in Germany. The initial capital investment is far outweighed by the ongoing operational expense of fossil fuel-based power.

As well as reducing emissions and costs, Germany’s rapid path to net-zero can also unlock a series of additional benefits. If coal is phased out by 2030 but capacity is not replaced by high levels of renewable energy, Germany risks becoming a significant energy importer, peaking at 162 TWh in 2035. The accelerated pathway would reduce imports by a third.

Likewise, more renewable energy will help to electrify district heating, meaning Germany can move away from carbon-intensive fuels sooner. If Germany follows the accelerated path, 57% of Germany’s heating could be electrified in 2045, compared to 10% under the slower plan.

Jan Andersson concluded: “The opportunities on offer are vast. Germany can provide the blueprint for net zero and galvanise an entire continent. Now is the time for the new government to seize the initiative.”

 

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Canada Makes Historic Investments in Tidal Energy in Nova Scotia

Canada Tidal Energy Investment drives Nova Scotia's PLAT-I floating tidal array at FORCE, advancing renewable energy, clean electricity, emissions reductions, and green jobs while delivering 9 MW of predictable ocean power to the provincial grid.

 

Key Points

Federal funding for a floating tidal array delivering 9 MW of clean power in Nova Scotia, cutting annual CO2 emissions.

✅ $28.5M for Sustainable Marine's PLAT-I floating array

✅ Delivers 9 MW to Nova Scotia's grid via FORCE

✅ Cuts 17,000 tonnes CO2 yearly and creates local jobs

 

Canada has an abundance of renewable energy sources that are helping power our country's clean growth future and the Government of Canada is investing in renewable energy and grid modernization to reduce emissions, create jobs and invigorate local economies in a post COVID-19 pandemic world.

The Honourable Seamus O'Regan, Canada's Minister of Natural Resources, today announced one of Canada's largest-ever investments in tidal energy development — $28.5 million to Sustainable Marine in Nova Scotia to deliver Canada's first floating tidal energy array.

Sustainable Marine developed an innovative floating tidal energy platform called PLAT-I as part of advances in ocean and river power technologies that has undergone rigorous testing on the waters of Grand Passage for nearly two years. A second platform is currently being assembled in Meteghan, Nova Scotia and will be launched in Grand Passage later this year for testing before relocation to the Fundy Ocean Research Centre for Energy (FORCE) in 2021. These platforms will make up the tidal energy array.  

The objective of the project is to provide up to nine megawatts of predictable and clean renewable electricity to Nova Scotia's electrical grid infrastructure. This will reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 17,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide a year while creating new jobs in the province. The project will also demonstrate the ability to harness tides as a reliable source of renewable electricity to power homes, vehicles and businesses.

Tidal energy — a clean, renewable energy source generated by ocean tides and currents, alongside evolving offshore wind regulations that support marine renewables — has the potential to significantly reduce Canada's greenhouse gas emissions and improve local air quality by displacing electricity generated from fossil fuels.

Minister O'Regan made the announcement at the Marine Renewables Canada 2020 Fall Forum, which brings together its members and industry to identify opportunities and strategize a path forward for marine renewable energy sources.

Funding for the project comes from Natural Resources Canada's Emerging Renewables Power Program, part of Canada's more than $180-billion Investing in Canada infrastructure plan for public transit projects, green infrastructure, social infrastructure, trade and transportation routes and Canada's rural and northern communities, as Prairie provinces' renewable growth accelerates nationwide.

 

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Want Clean And Universal Electricity? Create The Incentives To Double The Investment, World Leaders Say

IRENA Climate Investment Platform accelerates renewable energy financing through de-risking, bankable projects, and public-private partnerships, advancing Paris Agreement goals via grid integration, microgrids, and decarbonization while expanding access, jobs, and sustainable economic growth.

 

Key Points

A global platform linking bankable renewable projects with finance, derisking and partners to scale decarbonization.

✅ Connects developers with banks, funds, and insurers

✅ Promotes de-risking via policy, PPAs, and legal frameworks

✅ Targets Paris goals with grid, microgrids, and off-grid access

 

The heads-of-state and energy ministers from more than 120 nations just met in Abu Dhabi and they had one thing in common: a passion to increase the use of renewable energy to reduce the threat from global warming — one that will also boost economic output and spread prosperity. Access to finance, though, is critical to this goal. 

Indeed, the central message to emerge from the conference hosted by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) this week in the United Arab Emirates is that a global energy transition is underway that has the potential to revitalize economies and to lift people out of poverty. But such a conversion requires international cooperation and a common desire to address the climate cause. 

“The renewable energy sector created jobs employing 11 million people in 2019 and provided off-grid solutions, having helped bring the number of people with no access to electricity to under 1 billion,” the current president of the UN General Assembly Tiijani Muhammad-Bande of Nigeria told the audience. 

Today In: Business
While renewables are improving energy access and reducing inequities, they also have the potential to curb CO2 emissions globally. The goal is to shrink them by 45% by 2030 and 90% by 2050, with Canada's net-zero race highlighting the role of renewable energy in achieving those targets. Getting there, though, requires progressive government policies that will help to attract financing. 

According to IRENA, investment in the clean energy sector is now at $330 billion a year. But if the 2050 goals are to be reached, those levels must nearly double to $750 billion annually. The green energy sector does not want to compete with the oil and gas sectors but rather, it is seeking to diversify fuel sources — a strategy that could help make electricity systems more resilient to climate risks. To hit the Paris agreement’s targets, it says that renewable energy deployment must increase by a factor of six.  

To that end, IRENA is forming a “climate investment platform” that will bring ideas to the table and then introduce prospective parties. It will focus on those projects that it believes are “bankable.”

It’s about helping project developers find banks, private companies and pension funds to finance their worthy projects, IRENA Director General Francesco La Camera said in response to this reporter’s question. Moreover, he said that the platform would work to ensure there is a sound legal structure and that there is legislative support to “de-risk” the investments. 

“Overcoming investment needs for energy transformation infrastructure is one of the most notable barriers to the achievement of national goals,” La Camera says. “Therefore, the provision of capital to support the adoption of renewable energy is key to low-carbon sustainable economic development and plays a central role in bringing about positive social outcomes.”

If the monies are to flow into new projects, governments have to create an environment where innovation is to be rewarded: tax incentives for renewables along with the design and implementation of transition plans. The aim is to scale up which in turn, leads to new jobs and greater economic productivity — a payback of three-to-seven times the initial investment.  

The path of least resistance, for now, is off-grid green energy solutions, or providing electricity to rural areas by installing solar panels that may connect to localized microgrids. Africa, which has a half-billion people without reliable electricity, would benefit. However, “If you want to go to scale and have bankable projects, you have to be connected to the grid,” Moira Wahba, with the UN Development Program, told this writer. “That requires large capital and private enterprise.”

Public policy must thus work to create the knowledge base and the advocacy to help de-risk the investments. Government’s role is to reassure investors that they will not be subject to arbitrary laws or the crony allocation of contracts. Risk takers know there are no guarantees. But they want to compete on a level playing. 

Analyzing Risk Profiles

He is speaking during the World Energy Future Summit. 
Sultan Al Jabber, chief executive of Abu Dhabi’s national oil company, Adnoc, who is also the former ... [+]ABU DHABI SUSTAINABILITY WEEK
How do foreign investors square the role of utilities that are considered safe and sound with their potential expansion into new fields such as investing in carbon-free electricity and in new places? The elimination of risk is not possible, says Mohamed Jameel Al Ramahi, chief executive officer of UAE-based Masdar. But the need to decarbonize is paramount. The head of the renewable energy company says that every jurisdiction has its own risk profile but that each one must be fully transparent while also properly structuring their policies and regulations. And there needs to be insurance for political risks. 

The United States and China, for example, are already “de-risked,” because they are deploying “gigawatts of renewables,” he told this writer. “When we talk about doubling the amount of needed investment, we have to take into account the risk profile of the whole world. If it is a high-risk jurisdiction, it will be difficult to bring in foreign capital.” 

The most compelling factor that will drive investment is whether the global community can comply with the Paris agreement, says Dr. Thani Ahmed Al Zeyoudi, Minister of the Ministry of Climate Change and the Environment for the United Arab Emirates. The goal is to limit increases to 2 degrees Celsius by mid-century, with the understanding that the UN’s latest climate report emphasizes that positive results are urgently needed. 

One of the most effective mechanisms is the public-private model. Governments, for example, are signing long-term power purchase agreements, giving project developers the necessary income they need to operate, and in the EU plans to double electricity use by 2050 are reinforcing these commitments. They can also provide grants and bring in international partners such as the World Bank. 

“We are seeing the impact of climate change with the various extreme events: the Australian fires, the cyclones and the droughts,” the minister told reporters. “We can no longer pass this to future generations to deal with.” 

The United Arab Emirates is not just talking about it, adds Sultan Al Jabber, chief executive of Abu Dhabi’s national oil company, Adnoc, who is also the former head of subsidiary Masdar. It is acting now, and across Europe Big Oil is turning electric as traditional players pivot too. His comments came during Abu Dhabi’s Sustainability Week at the World Future Energy Summit. The country is “walking the walk” by investing in renewable projects around the globe and it is growing its own green energy portfolio. Addressing climate change is “right” while it is also making “perfect economic sense.” 

The green energy transition has taken root in advanced economies while it is making inroads in the developing world — a movement that has the twin effect of addressing climate change and creating economic opportunities, and one that aligns with calls to transform into a sustainable electric planet for long-term prosperity. But private investment must double, which requires proactive governments to limit unnecessary risks and to craft the incentives to attract risk-takers. 

 

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18% of electricity generated in Canada in 2019 came from fossil fuels

EV Decarbonization Strategy weighs life-cycle emissions and climate targets, highlighting mode shift to public transit, cycling, and walking, grid decarbonization, renewable energy, and charging infrastructure to cut greenhouse gases while reducing private car dependence.

 

Key Points

A plan to cut transport emissions by pairing EV adoption with mode shift, clean power, and less private car use.

✅ Prioritize mode shift: transit, cycling, and walking.

✅ Electrify remaining vehicles with clean, renewable power.

✅ Expand charging, improve batteries, and manage critical minerals.

 

California recently announced that it plans to ban the sales of gas-powered vehicles by 2035, a move similar to a 2035 electric vehicle mandate seen elsewhere, Ontario has invested $500 million in the production of electric vehicles (EVs) and Tesla is quickly becoming the world's highest-valued car company.

It almost seems like owning an electric vehicle is a silver bullet in the fight against climate change, but it isn't, as a U of T study explains today. What we should also be focused on is whether anyone should use a private vehicle at all.
 
As a researcher in sustainable mobility, I know this answer is unsatisfying. But this is where my latest research has led.

Battery EVs, such as the Tesla Model 3 - the best selling EV in Canada in 2020 - have no tailpipe emissions. But they do have higher production and manufacturing emissions than conventional vehicles, and often run on electricity that comes from fossil fuels.

Almost 18 per cent of the electricity generated in Canada came from fossil fuels in 2019, and even as Canada's EV goals grow more ambitious today, the grid mix varies from zero in Quebec to 90 per cent in Alberta.
 
Researchers like me compare the greenhouse gas emissions of an alternative vehicle, such as an EV, with those of a conventional vehicle over a vehicle lifetime, an exercise known as a life-cycle assessment. For example, a Tesla Model 3 compared with a Toyota Corolla can provide up to 75 per cent reduction in greenhouse gases emitted per kilometre travelled in Quebec, but no reductions in Alberta.

 

Hundreds of millions of new cars

To avoid extreme and irreversible impacts on ecosystems, communities and the overall global economy, we must keep the increase in global average temperatures to less than 2 C - and ideally 1.5 C - above pre-industrial levels by the year 2100.

We can translate these climate change targets into actionable plans. First, we estimate greenhouse gas emissions budgets using energy and climate models for each sector of the economy and for each country. Then we simulate future emissions, taking alternative technologies into account, as well as future potential economic and societal developments.

I looked at the U.S. passenger vehicle fleet, which adds up to about 260 million vehicles, while noting the potential for Canada-U.S. collaboration in this transition, to answer a simple question: Could the greenhouse gas emissions from the sector be brought in line with climate targets by replacing gasoline-powered vehicles with EVs?

The results were shocking. Assuming no changes to travel behaviours and a decarbonization of 80 per cent of electricity, meeting a 2 C target could require up to 300 million EVs, or 90 per cent of the projected U.S. fleet, by 2050. That would require all new purchased vehicles to be electric from 2035 onwards.

To put that into perspective, there are currently 880,000 EVs in the U.S., or 0.3 per cent of the fleet. Even the most optimistic projections, despite hype about an electric-car revolution gaining steam, from the International Energy Agency suggest that the U.S. fleet will only be at about 50 per cent electrified by 2050.

 

Massive and rapid electrification

Still, 90 per cent is theoretically possible, isn't it? Probably, but is it desirable?

In order to hit that target, we'd need to very rapidly overcome all the challenges associated with EV adoption, such as range anxiety, the higher purchase cost and availability of charging infrastructure.
 
A rapid pace of electrification would severely challenge the electricity infrastructure and the supply chain of many critical materials for the batteries, such as lithium, manganese and cobalt. It would require vast capacity of renewable energy sources and transmission lines, widespread charging infrastructure, a co-ordination between two historically distinct sectors (electricity and transportation systems) and rapid innovations in electric battery technologies. I am not saying it's impossible, but I believe it's unlikely.

Read more: There aren't enough batteries to electrify all cars - focus on trucks and buses instead

So what? Shall we give up, accept our collective fate and stop our efforts at electrification?

On the contrary, I think we should re-examine our priorities and dare to ask an even more critical question: Do we need that many vehicles on the road?

 

Buses, trains and bikes

Simply put, there are three ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from passenger transport: avoid the need to travel, shift the transportation modes or improve the technologies. EVs only tackle one side of the problem, the technological one.

And while EVs do decrease emissions compared with conventional vehicles, we should be comparing them to buses, including leading electric bus fleets in North America, trains and bikes. When we do, their potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions disappears because of their life cycle emissions and the limited number of people they carry at one time.

If we truly want to solve our climate problems, we need to deploy EVs along with other measures, such as public transit and active mobility. This fact is critical, especially given the recent decreases in public transit ridership in the U.S., mostly due to increasing vehicle ownership, low gasoline prices and the advent of ride-hailing (Uber, Lyft)

Governments need to massively invest in public transit, cycling and walking infrastructure to make them larger, safer and more reliable, rather than expanding EV subsidies alone. And we need to reassess our transportation needs and priorities.

The road to decarbonization is long and winding. But if we are willing to get out of our cars and take a shortcut through the forest, we might get there a lot faster.

Author: Alexandre Milovanoff - Postdoctoral Researcher, Environmental Engineering, University of Toronto The Conversation

 

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