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Ontario Starlink Contract Cancellation underscores rising tariffs, trade tensions, and retaliation, as SpaceX's Elon Musk loses a rural broadband deal; Ontario pivots to procurement bans, energy resilience, and nuclear power to boost grid independence.

Key Points

Ontario ended a C$100M Starlink deal over U.S. tariffs, prompting a shift to rural broadband alternatives.

✅ Triggered by U.S. tariffs; Ontario adopts retaliatory procurement bans.

✅ Ends plan to connect 15,000 rural homes and businesses with broadband.

✅ Signals push for energy resilience, nuclear power, and grid independence.

In a decisive move, Ontario Premier Doug Ford announced the cancellation of a C$100 million contract with Elon Musk's Starlink, a subsidiary of SpaceX, in direct response to U.S. President Donald Trump's imposition of tariffs on Canadian imports. This action underscores the escalating trade tensions between Canada and the United States, a theme highlighted during Ford's Washington meeting on energy tariffs earlier this month, and highlights Ontario's efforts to safeguard its economic interests.

The now-terminated agreement, established in November, aimed to provide high-speed internet access to 15,000 homes and businesses in Ontario's remote areas. Premier Ford's decision to "rip up" the contract signifies a broader strategy to distance the province from U.S.-based companies amid the current trade dispute. He emphasized, "Ontario won't do business with people hell-bent on destroying our economy."

This move is part of a series of retaliatory measures by Canadian provinces, including Ford's threat to cut electricity exports to the U.S., following President Trump's announcement of a 25% tariff on nearly all Canadian imports, excluding oil, which faces a 10% surcharge. These tariffs, set to take effect imminently, have prompted concerns about potential economic downturns in Canada. In response, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau declared that Canada would impose 25% tariffs on C$155 billion worth of U.S. goods, aiming to exert pressure on the U.S. administration to reconsider its stance.

Premier Ford's actions reflect a broader sentiment of economic nationalism, as he also announced a ban on American companies from provincial contracts until the U.S. tariffs are lifted. He highlighted that Ontario's government and its agencies allocate $30 billion annually on procurement, and reiterated his earlier vow to fire the Hydro One CEO and board as part of broader reforms aimed at efficiency.

The cancellation of the Starlink contract raises concerns about the future of internet connectivity in Ontario's rural regions. The original deal with Starlink was seen as a significant step toward bridging the digital divide, offering high-speed internet to underserved communities. With the contract's termination, the province faces the challenge of identifying alternative solutions to fulfill this critical need.

Beyond the immediate implications of the Starlink contract cancellation, Ontario is confronting broader challenges in ensuring the resilience and independence of its energy infrastructure. The province's reliance on external entities for critical services, such as internet connectivity and energy, has come under scrutiny, as Canada's electricity exports are at risk amid ongoing trade tensions and policy uncertainty.

Premier Ford has expressed a commitment to expanding Ontario's capacity to generate nuclear power as a means to bolster energy self-sufficiency. While this strategy aims to reduce dependence on external energy sources, it presents its own set of challenges that critics argue require cleaning up Ontario's hydro mess before new commitments proceed. Developing nuclear infrastructure requires substantial investment, rigorous safety protocols, and long-term planning. Moreover, the integration of nuclear power into the province's energy mix necessitates careful consideration of environmental impacts and public acceptance.

The concept of "Trump-proofing" Ontario's electricity grid involves creating a robust and self-reliant energy system capable of withstanding external political and economic pressures. Achieving this goal entails diversifying energy sources, including building on Ontario's electricity deal with Quebec to strengthen interties, investing in renewable energy technologies, and enhancing grid infrastructure to ensure stability and resilience.

However, the path to energy independence is fraught with complexities. Balancing the immediate need for reliable energy with long-term sustainability goals requires nuanced policy decisions, including Ontario's Supreme Court challenge to the global adjustment fee and related regulatory reviews to clarify cost impacts. Additionally, fostering collaboration between government entities, private sector stakeholders, and the public is essential to navigate the multifaceted challenges associated with overhauling the province's energy framework.

Ontario's recent actions, including the cancellation of the Starlink contract, underscore the province's proactive stance in safeguarding its economic and infrastructural interests amid evolving geopolitical dynamics. While such measures reflect a commitment to self-reliance, they also highlight the intricate challenges inherent in reducing dependence on external entities. As Ontario charts its course toward a more autonomous future, strategic planning, investment in sustainable technologies, and collaborative policymaking will be pivotal in achieving long-term resilience and prosperity.

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Pinghai Bay Offshore Wind Farm MWS advances marine warranty survey best practices, risk management, and international standards in Fujian, with Haixia Goldenbridge Insurance and reinsurer-aligned audits supporting safer offshore wind construction and logistics.

Key Points

An MWS program ensuring Pinghai Bay Phase 2 meets standards via audits, risk controls, and vetted procedures.

✅ First MWS delivered in China's offshore wind market

✅ Audits, risk consultancy, and reinsurer-aligned standards

✅ Supports 250MW Phase 2 at Pinghai Bay, Fujian

LOC Renewables has announced it is to carry out marine warranty survey (MWS) services for the second phase of the Pinghai Bay Offshore Wind Farm near Putian, Fujian province, China, on behalf of Haixia Goldenbridge Insurance Co., Ltd. The agreement represents the first time MWS services have been delivered to the Chinese offshore wind market.

China’s installed offshore capacity jumped more than 60% in 2017, and its growing offshore market is aiming for a total grid-connected capacity of 5GW by 2020, as the sector globally advances toward a $1 trillion industry over the coming decades. Much of this future offshore development is slated to take place in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong and Fujian provinces. As developers becoming increasingly aware of the need for stringent risk management and value that internationally accepted standards can bring to projects, Pinghai Bay will be the first Chinese offshore wind farm to employ MWS to ensure it meets the highest technical standards and minimise project risk. The agreement will see LOC Renewables carry out audit and risk consultancy services for the project from March until the end of 2018.

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In recent years, as Chinese offshore wind projects have grown in scale and complexity the need for international expertise in the market has increased, with World Bank support for emerging markets underscoring global momentum. In response, domestic insurers are partnering with international reinsurers to manage and mitigate the associated larger risks. Applying the higher standards required by international reinsurers, LOC Renewables will draw on its extensive experience in European, US and Asian offshore wind markets to provide MWS services on the Pinghai project from its Tianjin office.

“As offshore wind technology continues to proliferate across Asia, driven by declining global costs, successful knowledge transfer based on best practices and lessons learned in the established offshore wind markets becomes ever more important,” said Ke Wan, Managing Director, LOC China.

“With a wealth of experience in Europe and the US, where UK offshore wind growth has accelerated, we’re increasingly working on projects across Asia, and are delighted to now be providing the first MWS services to China’s offshore wind market – services that bring real value in lower risk and will enable the project to achieve its full potential.”

“At 250MW, phase two of the Pinghai Bay Wind Farm represents a significant expansion on phase one, and we wanted to ensure that it met the highest technical and risk mitigation standards, informed by regional learnings such as Korean installation vessels analyses,” said Fan Ming, Business Director at Haixia Goldenbridge Insurance.

“In addition to their global experience, LOC Renewables’ familiarity with and presence in the local market was very important to us, and we’re looking forward to working closely with them to help bring this project to fruition and make a significant contribution to China’s expanding offshore wind market.”

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Ontario Nuclear Refurbishment Economic Impact powers growth as Bruce Power's MCR and OPG's Darlington unit 2 refurbishment drive jobs, supply-chain spending, medical isotopes, clean baseload power, and lower GHG emissions across Ontario and Canada.

Key Points

It is the measured gains from Bruce Power's MCR and OPG's Darlington refurbishment in jobs, taxes, and clean energy.

✅ CAD7.6B-10.6B impact in Ontario; CAD8.1B-11.6B nationwide.

✅ Supports 60% nuclear supply, jobs, and medical isotopes.

✅ MCR and Darlington cut GHGs, drive innovation and supply chains.

The 13-year Major Component Replacement (MCR) project being undertaken as part of Bruce Power's life-extension programme, which officially began with a reactor taken offline earlier this year, will inject billions of dollars into Ontario's economy, a new report has found. Meanwhile, the major project to refurbish Darlington unit 2 remains on track for completion in 2020, Ontario Power Generation (OPG) has announced.

The Ontario Chamber of Commerce (OCC) said its report, Major Component Replacement Project Economic Impact Analysis, outlines an impartial assessment of the MCR programme and related manufacturing contracts across the supply chain. The report was commissioned by Bruce Power.

"Our analysis shows that Bruce Power's MCR project is a fundamental contributor to the Ontario economy. More broadly, the life-extension of the Bruce Power facility will provide quality jobs for Ontarians, produce a stable supply of medical isotopes for the world's healthcare system, and deliver economic benefit through direct and indirect spending," OCC President and CEO Rocco Rossi said."As Ontario's energy demand grows, nuclear truly is the best option to meet those demands with reduced GHG [greenhouse gas] emissions. The Bruce Power MCR Project will not only drive economic growth in the region, it will position Ontario as a global leader in nuclear innovation and expertise."

According to the OCC's economic analysis, the MCR's economic impact on Ontario is estimated to be between CAD7.6 billion (USD5.6 billion) and CAD10.6 billion. Nationally, its economic impact is estimated to be between CAD8.1 billion and CAD11.6 billion. It estimates that the federal government will receive CAD144 million in excise tax and CAD1.2 billion in income tax, while the provincial government will receive CAD300 million and CAD437 million. Ontario’s municipal governments are estimated to receive a collective CAD192 million in tax.

The nuclear industry currently provides 60% of Ontario’s daily energy supply needs, with Pickering life extension plans bolstering system reliability, and is made up of over 200 companies and more than 60,000 jobs across a diversity of sectors such as operations, manufacturing, skilled trades, healthcare, and research and innovation, the report notes.

Greg Rickford, Ontario's minister of Energy, Northern Development and Mines, and minister of Indigenous Affairs, said continued use of the Bruce generating station which recently set an operating record would create jobs and advance Ontario’s nuclear industrial sector. "It is great to see projects like the MCR that help make Ontario the best place to invest, do business and find a job," he said.

The MCR is part of Bruce Power's overall life-extension programme, which started in January 2016. Bruce 6 will be the first of the six Candu units to undergo an MCR which will take 46 months to complete and give the unit a further 30-35 years of operational life. The total cost of refurbishing Bruce units 3-8 is estimated at about CAD8 billion, in addition to CAD5 billion on other activities under the life-extension programme, which is scheduled for completion by 2053.

Darlington milestones

OPG's long-term refurbishment programme at Darlington, alongside SMR plans for the site announced by the province, began with unit 2 in 2016 after years of detailed planning and preparation. Reassembly of the reactor, which was disassembled last year, is scheduled for completion this spring, and the unit 2 refurbishment project remains on track for completion in early 2020. At the same time, final preparations are under way for the start of the refurbishment of unit 3.

"We've entered a critical phase on the project," Senior Vice President of Nuclear Refurbishment Mike Allen said. "OPG and our project partners continue to work as an integrated team to meet our commitments on Unit 2 and our other three reactors at Darlington Nuclear Generating Station."

A 350-tonne generator stator manufactured by GE in Poland is currently in transit to Canada, where it will be installed in Darlington 3's turbine hall as the province also breaks ground on its first SMR this year.

The 10-year Darlington refurbishment is due to be completed in 2026, while the province plans to refurbish Pickering B to extend output beyond that date.

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Ontario Electricity Demand Drop During COVID-19 reflects a 1,000-2,000 MW decline as IESO balances the grid, shifts peak demand later, throttles generators and baseload nuclear, and manages exports amid changing load curves.

Key Points

An about 10% reduction in Ontario's load, shifting peaks and requiring IESO grid balancing measures.

✅ Demand down 1,000-2,000 MW; roughly 10% below normal.

✅ Peak shifts later in morning as home use rises.

✅ IESO throttles generators; baseload nuclear stays online.

It’s as if the COVID-19 epidemic had tripped a circuit breaker, shutting off all power to a city the size of Ottawa.

Virus-induced restrictions that have shut down large swaths of normal commercial life across Canada has led to a noticeable drop in demand for power in Ontario and reflect a global demand dip according to reports, insiders said on Friday.

Terry Young, vice-president with the Independent Electricity System Operator, said planning was underway for further declines in usage and for whether Ontario will embrace more clean power in the long term, given the delicate balance that needs to be maintained between supply and demand.

“We’re now seeing demand that is running about 1,000 to 2,000 megawatts less than we would normally see,” Young said. “You’re essentially seeing a city the size of Ottawa drop off demand during the day.”

At the high end, a 2,000 megawatt reduction would be close to the equivalent peak demand of Ottawa and London, Ont., combined.

The decline, in the order of 10 per cent from the 17,000 to 18,000 megawatts of usage that might normally be expected and similar to the UK’s 10% drop reported during lockdowns, began last week, Young said. The downward trend became more noticeable as governments and health authorities ordered non-essential businesses to close and people to stay home. However, residential and hospital usage has climbed.

Experts say frequent hand-washing and staying away from others is the most effective way to curb the spread of the highly contagious coronavirus, which poses a special risk to older people and those with underlying health conditions. As a result, factories and other big users have reduced production or closed entirely.

Because electricity cannot be stored, generators need to throttle back their output as domestic demand shrinks and exports to places such as the United States, including New York City, which is also being hit hard by the coronavirus, fall.

“We’re watching this carefully,” Young said. “We’re able to manage this drop, but it’s something we obviously have to keep watching…and making sure we’re not over-generating electricity.”

Turning off generation, especially for nuclear plants, is an intensive process, as are restarts and would likely happen only if the downward demand trend intensifies significantly, amid concerns over Ontario’s electricity getting dirtier if baseload is displaced. However, one of North America’s largest generators, Bruce Power near Kincardine, Ont., said it had a large degree of flexibility to scale down or up.

“We have the ability to provide one-third of our output as a dynamic response, which is unique to our facility,” said James Scongack, an executive vice-president with Bruce Power. “We developed this coming out of the 2008 downturn and it’s been a critical system asset for the last decade.”

“We don’t see there being a scenario where our baseload will not be needed,” he said, even as some warn Ontario may be short of electricity in the coming years.

The province’s publicly owned Ontario Power Generation said it was also in conversations with the system operator, which provides direction to generators, and is often cited in the Ontario election discussion.

One clear shift in normal work-day usage with so many people staying at home has been the change in demand patterns. Typically, Young said, there’s a peak from about 7 a.m. to 8 a.m. as people wake and get ready to go to work or school. The peak is now occurring later in the morning, Young said.

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Space solar power promises wireless energy from orbital solar satellites via microwave or laser power beaming, using photovoltaics and rectennas. NRL and AFRL advances hint at 24-7 renewable power delivery to Earth and airborne drones.

Key Points

Space solar power beams orbital solar energy to Earth via microwaves or lasers, enabling continuous wireless electricity.

✅ Harvests sunlight in orbit and transmits via microwaves or lasers

✅ Provides 24-7 renewable power, independent of weather or night

✅ Enables wireless power for remote sites, grids, and drones

Earlier this year, a small group of spectators gathered in David Taylor Model Basin, the Navy’s cavernous indoor wave pool in Maryland, to watch something they couldn’t see. At each end of the facility there was a 13-foot pole with a small cube perched on top. A powerful infrared laser beam shot out of one of the cubes, striking an array of photovoltaic cells inside the opposite cube. To the naked eye, however, it looked like a whole lot of nothing. The only evidence that anything was happening came from a small coffee maker nearby, which was churning out “laser lattes” using only the power generated by the system as ambitions for cheap abundant electricity gain momentum worldwide.

The laser setup managed to transmit 400 watts of power—enough for several small household appliances—through hundreds of meters of air without moving any mass. The Naval Research Lab, which ran the project, hopes to use the system to send power to drones during flight. But NRL electronics engineer Paul Jaffe has his sights set on an even more ambitious problem: beaming solar power to Earth from space. For decades the idea had been reserved for The Future, but a series of technological breakthroughs and a massive new government research program suggest that faraway day may have finally arrived as interest in space-based solar broadens across industry and government.

Since the idea for space solar power first cropped up in Isaac Asimov’s science fiction in the early 1940s, scientists and engineers have floated dozens of proposals to bring the concept to life, including inflatable solar arrays and robotic self-assembly. But the basic idea is always the same: A giant satellite in orbit harvests energy from the sun and converts it to microwaves or lasers for transmission to Earth, where it is converted into electricity. The sun never sets in space, so a space solar power system could supply renewable power to anywhere on the planet, day or night, as recent tests show we can generate electricity from the night sky as well, rain or shine.

Like fusion energy, space-based solar power seemed doomed to become a technology that was always 30 years away. Technical problems kept cropping up, cost estimates remained stratospheric, and as solar cells became cheaper and more efficient, and storage improved with cheap batteries, the case for space-based solar seemed to be shrinking.

That didn’t stop government research agencies from trying. In 1975, after partnering with the Department of Energy on a series of space solar power feasibility studies, NASA beamed 30 kilowatts of power over a mile using a giant microwave dish. Beamed energy is a crucial aspect of space solar power, but this test remains the most powerful demonstration of the technology to date. “The fact that it’s been almost 45 years since NASA’s demonstration, and it remains the high-water mark, speaks for itself,” Jaffe says. “Space solar wasn’t a national imperative, and so a lot of this technology didn’t meaningfully progress.”

John Mankins, a former physicist at NASA and director of Solar Space Technologies, witnessed how government bureaucracy killed space solar power development firsthand. In the late 1990s, Mankins authored a report for NASA that concluded it was again time to take space solar power seriously and led a project to do design studies on a satellite system. Despite some promising results, the agency ended up abandoning it.

In 2005, Mankins left NASA to work as a consultant, but he couldn’t shake the idea of space solar power. He did some modest space solar power experiments himself and even got a grant from NASA’s Innovative Advanced Concepts program in 2011. The result was SPS-ALPHA, which Mankins called “the first practical solar power satellite.” The idea, says Mankins, was “to build a large solar-powered satellite out of thousands of small pieces.” His modular design brought the cost of hardware down significantly, at least in principle.

Jaffe, who was just starting to work on hardware for space solar power at the Naval Research Lab, got excited about Mankins’ concept. At the time he was developing a “sandwich module” consisting of a small solar panel on one side and a microwave transmitter on the other. His electronic sandwich demonstrated all the elements of an actual space solar power system and, perhaps most important, it was modular. It could work beautifully with something like Mankins' concept, he figured. All they were missing was the financial support to bring the idea from the laboratory into space.

Jaffe invited Mankins to join a small team of researchers entering a Defense Department competition, in which they were planning to pitch a space solar power concept based on SPS-ALPHA. In 2016, the team presented the idea to top Defense officials and ended up winning four out of the seven award categories. Both Jaffe and Mankins described it as a crucial moment for reviving the US government’s interest in space solar power.

They might be right. In October, the Air Force Research Lab announced a $100 million program to develop hardware for a solar power satellite. It’s an important first step toward the first demonstration of space solar power in orbit, and Mankins says it could help solve what he sees as space solar power’s biggest problem: public perception. The technology has always seemed like a pie-in-the-sky idea, and the cost of setting up a solar array on Earth is plummeting, as proposals like a tenfold U.S. solar expansion signal rapid growth; but space solar power has unique benefits, chief among them the availability of solar energy around the clock regardless of the weather or time of day.

It can also provide renewable energy to remote locations, such as forward operating bases for the military, which has deployed its first floating solar array to bolster resilience. And at a time when wildfires have forced the utility PG&E to kill power for thousands of California residents on multiple occasions, having a way to provide renewable energy through the clouds and smoke doesn’t seem like such a bad idea. (Ironically enough, PG&E entered a first-of-its-kind agreement to buy space solar power from a company called Solaren back in 2009; the system was supposed to start operating in 2016 but never came to fruition.)

“If space solar power does work, it is hard to overstate what the geopolitical implications would be,” Jaffe says. “With GPS, we sort of take it for granted that no matter where we are on this planet, we can get precise navigation information. If the same thing could be done for energy, especially as peer-to-peer energy sharing matures, it would be revolutionary.”

Indeed, there seems to be an emerging race to become the first to harness this technology. Earlier this year China announced its intention to become the first country to build a solar power station in space, and for more than a decade Japan has considered the development of a space solar power station to be a national priority. Now that the US military has joined in with a $100 million hardware development program, it may only be a matter of time before there’s a solar farm in the solar system.

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Texas Heat Pump Electrification replaces natural gas furnaces with electric heating across ERCOT, cutting carbon emissions, lowering utility bills, shifting summer peaks to winter, and aligning higher loads with strong seasonal wind power generation.

Key Points

Statewide shift from gas furnaces to heat pumps in Texas, reducing emissions and bills while moving grid peak to winter.

✅ Up to $452 annual utility savings per household

✅ CO2 cuts up to 13.8 million metric tons in scenarios

✅ Winter peak rises, summer peak falls; wind aligns with load

What would happen if you converted all the single-family homes in Texas from natural gas to electric heating?

According to a paper from Pecan Street, an Austin-based energy research organization, the transition would reduce climate-warming pollution, save Texas households up to $452 annually on their utility bills, and flip the state from a summer-peaking to a winter-peaking system. And that winter peak would be “nothing the grid couldn’t evolve to handle,” according to co-author Joshua Rhodes, a view echoed by analyses outlining Texas grid reliability improvements statewide today.

The report stems from the reality that buildings must be part of any comprehensive climate action plan.

“If we do want to decarbonize, eventually we do have to move into that space. It may not be the lowest-hanging fruit, but eventually we will have to get there,” said Rhodes.

Rhodes is a founding partner of the consultancy IdeaSmiths and an analyst at Vibrant Clean Energy. Pecan Street commissioned the study, which is distilled from a larger original analysis by IdeaSmiths, at the request of the nonprofit Environmental Defense Fund.

In an interview, Rhodes said, “The goal and motivation were to put bounding on some of the claims that have been made about electrification: that if we electrify a lot of different end uses or sectors of the economy...power demand of the grid would double.”

Rhodes and co-author Philip R. White used an analysis tool from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory called ResStock to determine the impact of replacing natural-gas furnaces with electric heat pumps in homes across the ERCOT service territory, which encompasses 90 percent of Texas’ electricity load.

Rhodes and White ran 80,000 simulations in order to determine how heat pumps would perform in Texas homes and how the pumps would impact the ERCOT grid.

The researchers modeled the use of “standard efficiency” (ducted, SEER 14, 8.2 HSPF air-source heat pump) and “superior efficiency” (ductless, SEER 29.3, 14 HSPF mini-split heat pump) heat pump models against two weather data sets — a typical meteorological year, and 2011, which had extreme weather in both the winter and summer and highlighted blackout risks during severe heat for many regions.

Emissions were calculated using Texas’ power sector data from 2017. For energy cost calculations, IdeaSmiths used 10.93 cents per kilowatt-hour for electricity and 8.4 cents per therm for natural gas.

Nothing the grid can't handle
Rhodes and White modeled six scenarios. All the scenarios resulted in annual household utility bill savings — including the two in which annual electricity demand increased — ranging from $57.82 for the standard efficiency heat pump and typical meteorological year to $451.90 for the high-efficiency heat pump and 2011 extreme weather year.

“For the average home, it was cheaper to switch. It made economic sense today to switch to a relatively high-efficiency heat pump,” said Rhodes. “Electricity bills would go up, but gas bills can go down.”

All the scenarios found carbon savings too, with CO2 reductions ranging from 2.6 million metric tons with a standard efficiency heat pump and typical meteorological year to 13.8 million metric tons with the high-efficiency heat pump in 2011-year weather.

Peak electricity demand in Texas would shift from summer to winter. Because heat pumps provide both high-efficiency space heating and cooling, in the scenario with “superior efficiency” heat pumps, the summer peak drops by nearly 24 percent to 54 gigawatts compared to ERCOT’s 71-gigawatt 2016 summer peak, even as recurring strains on the Texas power grid during extreme conditions persist.

The winter peak would increase compared to ERCOT’s 66-gigawatt 2018 winter peak, up by 22.73 percent to 81 gigawatts with standard efficiency heat pumps and up by 10.6 percent to 73 gigawatts with high-efficiency heat pumps.

“The grid could evolve to handle this. This is not a wholesale rethinking of how the grid would have to operate,” said Rhodes.

He added, “There would be some operational changes if we went to a winter-peaking grid. There would be implications for when power plants and transmission lines schedule their downtime for maintenance. But this is not beyond the realm of reality.”

And because Texas’ wind power generation is higher in winter, a winter peak would better match the expected higher load from all-electric heating to the availability of zero-carbon electricity.

A conservative estimate
The study presented what are likely conservative estimates of the potential for heat pumps to reduce carbon pollution and lower peak electricity demand, especially when paired with efficiency and demand response strategies that can flatten demand.

Electric heat pumps will become cleaner as more zero-carbon wind and solar power are added to the ERCOT grid, as utilities such as Tucson Electric Power phase out coal. By the end of 2018, 30 percent of the energy used on the ERCOT grid was from carbon-free sources.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, three in five Texas households already use electricity as their primary source of heat, much of it electric-resistance heating. Rhodes and White did not model the energy use and peak demand impacts of replacing that electric-resistance heating with much more energy efficient heat pumps.

“Most of the electric-resistance heating in Texas is located in the very far south, where they don’t have much heating at all,” Rhodes said. “You would see savings in terms of the bills there because these heat pumps definitely operate more efficiently than electric-resistance heating for most of the time.”

Rhodes and White also highlighted areas for future research. For one, their study did not factor in the upfront cost to homeowners of installing heat pumps.

“More study is needed,” they write in the Pecan Street paper, “to determine the feasibility of various ‘replacement’ scenarios and how and to what degree the upgrade costs would be shared by others.”

Research from the Rocky Mountain Institute has found that electrification of both space and water heating is cheaper for homeowners over the life of the appliances in most new construction, when transitioning from propane or heating oil, when a gas furnace and air conditioner are replaced at the same time, and when rooftop solar is coupled with electrification, aligning with broader utility trends toward electrification.

More work is also needed to assess the best way to jump-start the market for high-efficiency all-electric heating. Rhodes believes getting installers on board is key.

“Whenever a homeowner’s making a decision, if their system goes out, they lean heavily on what the HVAC company suggests or tells them because the average homeowner doesn’t know much about their systems,” he said.

More work is also needed to assess the best way to jump-start the market for high-efficiency all-electric heating, and how utility strategies such as smart home network programs affect adoption too. Rhodes believes getting installers on board is key.

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