Nervous analysts urged power plant settlement

By McClatchy Tribune News


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Fielding calls from folks on Wall Street isn't in the typical job description for someone working for a conservation group.

But the calls were about the costliest construction project in state history, the $2.3 billion We Energies power plant being built in Oak Creek. Jittery stock analysts visited with representatives of Clean Wisconsin in Madison this spring, wanting to know whether its eight-year dispute over the building of a coal-fired generating plant could be resolved.

Those jitters were restraining the company's stock price and were a key driver behind the settlement reached between We Energies and environmental groups. A deal was reached just hours before utility executives were scheduled to field questions from analysts about the plant's status.

The settlement ended the last piece of litigation, which was being fought over the power plant's cooling system. It not only removed hurdles to the plant's opening, it also meant costly cooling towers wouldn't have to be built. Clean Wisconsin and the Sierra Club, in turn, won utility company commitments on a couple of high-profile environmental issues - the Great Lakes and global warming.

Although the deal was in the works for six months, it didn't get done until utility executives faced their quarterly conference call with investors. "They were clear they wanted to settle this thing before that analyst call," said Katie Nekola, energy program director at Clean Wisconsin.

"We wanted to communicate that certainty could be accomplished. That is very true," said Barry McNulty, We Energies spokesman.

Investors continued to focus on the drawn-out litigation even though We Energies had won more rulings on the power plant than it had lost, said David Parker, investment analyst at Robert W. Baird & Co. in Tampa, Fla. "People just like to have everything finalized and done," he said.

Had the litigation persisted, it's possible a court would have overturned the permit for the plant's Lake Michigan water cooling system and required cooling towers to be built at a cost of $300 million to $400 million.

And there was no guarantee the utility could operate its new power plant until the cooling towers were built. With a start-up date of 2011, the Oak Creek power plant is projected to boost earnings of We Energies' parent company, Wisconsin Energy Corp., by $100 million a year.

If approved by state regulators, the settlement reached with We Energies and two other state utilities would provide $4 million a year for 25 years to pay for projects that address problems in Lake Michigan, from invasive species to runoff pollution, from farm fields and suburban lawns.

Nearly $3 million a year would come from We Energies ratepayers.

The settlement also includes a series of commitments to expand the use of renewable energy in the state, including support for legislation to require that 25% of the state's electricity come from wind turbines, solar panels and other renewable power sources by 2025.

Rallying against coal Environmental groups have held rallies, run advertising campaigns and gone to court since 2003 to try to stop the Oak Creek project. Their efforts continued even after the Supreme Court decided by a 4-3 vote in 2005 to allow construction of the plant to proceed.

Since that time, the rallying cry against coal-fired power plants has grown louder around the country, and utilities have scrapped plans for new plants from Texas to Florida.

In Madison, Sierra Club lawyer Bruce Nilles now spearheads a national campaign against construction of new coal plants. For Wisconsin utilities, Nilles has been a tough, at-times maddening adversary, given his knack for speaking in strong terms about how coal plants are a leading source of heat-trapping carbon dioxide emissions.

Of Wisconsin's pattern of building new coal plants, he said last year: "We're at the forefront of going backwards." Nilles said he, too, was glad to reach a deal with We Energies and "bury the hatchet."

Reaching a deal, he said, was bowing to the physical reality that the coal plant's cooling system was already built in Lake Michigan, and that it was too late to stop the Oak Creek project altogether.

What changed that led to a deal? Not only the fact that the plant is scheduled to open next year, participants said, but also the fact that the environmental groups and utilities have been working alongside one another for more than a year as members of the state's global warming task force. Both sides supported the task force's more than 60 recommendations to Gov. Jim Doyle.

Nilles said he is pleased that the utility and its partners, Madison Gas & Electric Co. and Wisconsin Public Power Inc., agreed to support legislation to expand the state's renewable energy requirement. Under the new proposal, 10% of Wisconsin's electricity would come from renewable sources by 2013, two years faster than state law now requires.

Although this case is settled, Nekola of Clean Wisconsin said she expects her phone will keep ringing. In fact, she has a meeting scheduled with investment analysts again in Milwaukee. We Energies will certainly be on the agenda, but the bigger issue on investors' minds is in southwestern Wisconsin.

Investors are wondering whether state regulators will permit Madison-based Alliant Energy Corp. to build a $1.1 billion coal-fired power plant in Cassville. Clean Wisconsin and Sierra Club are the most vocal opponents of the plant, although that plant's use of biomass has won support from groups such as the Wisconsin Farm Bureau Federation and the Wisconsin BioIndustry Alliance.

Settling with We Energies made sense, Nilles said. "It allows us to focus going forward on Alliant's idea of building in Cassville."

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"It's freakishly cold": Deep freeze slams American energy sector

Texas Deep Freeze Energy Crisis strains grids as polar vortex triggers rolling blackouts, record natural gas and electricity prices, refinery shutdowns, WTI gains, and scarcity pricing across Texas, Oklahoma, SPP, and Mexico.

 

Key Points

A polar vortex slamming Texas energy: outages, record power prices, gas spikes, and reduced oil output.

✅ Record gas trades near $500/mmBtu; power hits $6,000/MWh

✅ WTI tops $60 as Texas shuts in ~1 million bpd

✅ Rolling blackouts across SPP; ERCOT scarcity pricing

 

A deep freeze is roiling electricity markets in more than a dozen U.S. states, leading to record-setting prices for electricity and natural gas, knocking oil production off line and shutting down some of North America’s largest refineries.

“It’s freakishly cold,” said Eric Fell, a senior natural gas analyst with Wood Mackenzie in Houston, where record cold temperatures and snow have blanketed the city, caused rolling power outages, shut down refineries and sent both natural gas and electricity prices soaring.

'It’s freakishly cold': Deep freeze slams North American energy sector

The polar vortex has led to freezing temperatures in every county in Texas, the largest energy-producing state in the U.S., and caused massive disruptions across the North American energy complex, triggering Texas power outages as far south as Mexico.

As the plunge in temperatures forced oil companies to shut in an estimated one million barrels of oil production in Texas on Monday, the West Texas Intermediate benchmark price rose above the US$60 per barrel threshold for the first time in a year to settle up 1 per cent, or US65 cents, at US$60.12 per barrel.

President Joe Biden declared an emergency on Monday, unlocking federal assistance to Texas.

People carry groceries from a local gas station on Monday in Austin, Texas. Winter storm Uri has brought historic cold weather to Texas, causing traffic delays and power outages. 

Frozen wind farms are just a small piece of Texas’s power grid woes right now.

Fell said regional natural gas and electricity prices in Oklahoma and Texas broke U.S. records over the weekend.

On Friday, Oklahoma gas transmission prices averaged US$350 per million British thermal units and Fell said one trade went as high as US$600 per mmBtu. In parts of the Texas panhandle and elsewhere, prices jumped to US$200, “all of which individually would have been new records,” Fell said, noting the previous record was US$160.

On Monday, natural gas for physical delivery in the U.S. was trading for as much as US$500 per mmBtu as demand for the heating and power plant fuel soared.  Spot gas has been trading for hundreds of dollars across the central U.S. since Thursday with a surge in heating demand triggering widespread blackouts and sending electricity prices soaring. The fuel normally trades in the region for less than US$3 per mmBtu.

Similarly, electricity prices in Texas surged to US$6,000 per megawatt hour on Monday, as U.S. power companies grapple with supply-chain constraints, which Fell said is “100 times the normal price.”

“You’re seeing scarcity pricing in power and gas. The only thing that’s different this time is it’s staying there – it’s not just an hour or two hours, it’s the whole day,” he said.

The blast of Arctic cold, which has blanketed Canada and much of the U.S., has created a massive draw on natural gas supplies, used both for home heating and industrial uses like electricity generation.

Little Rock, Ark.-based Southwest Power Pool, which coordinates electricity distribution for parts of 14 states including Oklahoma Kansas, Nebraska and even as far north as North Dakota, announced rolling blackouts across its network on Monday as a result of the power outages.

“In our history as a grid operator, this is an unprecedented event and marks the first time SPP has ever had to call for controlled interruptions of service” SPP’s executive vice-president and chief operating officer Lanny Nickell said in a release, adding the move was “a last resort” to “prevent circumstances from getting worse.”

The frigid conditions have led to a surge in natural gas prices across the continent, including in Alberta where the AECO benchmark price jumped to a seven-year high of $6.36 per thousand cubic feet last week, a price not seen since 2014.

Energy systems in Texas and Oklahoma, which are major energy exporters to other U.S. states, are built to withstand severe heat – not extreme cold. The result is a disruption to the gas supply at exactly the time the U.S. energy system is demanding those molecules.

“Given how far south it’s gone into Texas, this is where you have a lot of gas production that isn’t properly winterized,” said Jeremy McCrea, an analyst with Raymond James covering the natural gas industry.

 

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Electrification Of Vehicles Prompts BC Hydro's First Call For Power In 15 Years

BC Hydro Clean Power Call 2024 seeks utility-scale renewable energy, including wind and solar, to meet rising electricity demand, advance clean goals, expand grid, and support Indigenous participation through competitive procurement and equity opportunities.

 

Key Points

BC Hydro's 2024 bid to add zero-emission wind and solar to meet rising demand and support Indigenous equity.

✅ Competitive procurement for utility-scale wind and solar

✅ Targets 3,000 GWh new greenfield by fiscal 2029

✅ Encourages Indigenous ownership and equity stakes

 

The Government of British Columbia (the Government or Province) has announced that BC Hydro would be moving forward with a call for new sources of 100 percent clean, renewable emission-free electricity, notably including wind and solar, even as nuclear power remains a divisive option among residents. The call, expected to launch in spring 2024, is BC Hydro's first call for power in 15 years and will seek power from larger scale projects.

Over the past decade, British Columbia has experienced a growing economy and population as well as a move by the housing, business and transportation sectors towards electrification, with industrial demand from LNG facilities also influencing load growth. As the Government highlighted in their recent announcement, the number of registered light-duty electric vehicles in British Columbia increased from 5,000 in 2016 to more than 100,000 in 2023. Zero-emission vehicles represented 18.1 percent of new light-duty passenger vehicles sold in British Columbia in 2022, the highest percentage for any province or territory.

Ultimately, the Province now expects electricity demand in British Columbia to increase by 15 percent by 2030. BC Hydro elaborated on the growing need for electricity in their recent Signposts Update to the British Columbia Utilities Commission (BCUC), and noted additions such as new generating stations coming online to support capacity. BC Hydro implemented its Signposts Update process to monitor whether the "Near-term actions" established in its 2021 Integrated Resource Plan continue to be appropriate and align with the changing circumstances in electricity demand. Those actions outline how BC Hydro will meet the electricity needs of its customers over the next 20 years. The original Near-term actions focused on demand-side management and not incremental electricity production.

In its Update, BC Hydro emphasized that increased use of electricity and decreased supply, along with episodes of importing out-of-province fossil power during tight periods, has advanced the forecast of the province's need for additional renewable energy by three years. Accordingly, BC Hydro has updated its 2021 Integrated Resource Plan to, among other things:

accelerate the timing of several Near-term actions on energy efficiency, demand response, industrial load curtailment, electricity purchase agreement renewals and utility-scale batteries; and
add new Near-term actions for BC Hydro to acquire an additional 3,000 GWh per year of new clean, renewable energy from greenfield facilities in the province able to achieve commercial operation as early as fiscal 2029, as well as approximately 700 GWh per year of new clean, renewable energy from existing facilities prior to fiscal 2029.
The Province's predictions align with Canada Energy Regulator's (CER) "Canada's Energy Future 2023" flagship report (Report) released on June 20, 2023. The Report, which looks at Canadians' possible energy futures, includes two long-term scenarios modelled on Canada reaching net-zero by 2050. Under either scenario, the electricity sector is predicted to serve as the cornerstone of the net-zero energy system, with examples such as Hydro-Quebec's decarbonization strategy illustrating this shift as it transforms and expands to accommodate increasing electricity use.

Key Details of the Call
Though not finalized, the call for power will be a competitive process, with the exact details to be designed by BC Hydro and the Province, incorporating input from the recently-formed BC Hydro Task Force made up of Indigenous communities, industry and stakeholders. This is a shift from previous calls for power, which operated as a continuous-intake program with a standing offer at a fixed rate, after projects like the Siwash Creek project were left in limbo.

Drawing on advice from Indigenous and external energy experts, the Province seeks to advance Indigenous ownership and equity interest opportunities in the electricity sector, potentially with minimum requirements for Indigenous participation in new projects to be a condition of the competitive process. The Province has also committed $140 million to the B.C. Indigenous Clean Energy Initiative (BCICEI) to support Indigenous-led power projects and their ability to respond to future electricity demand, facilitating their ability to compete in the call for power, despite their smaller size.

BC Hydro expects to initiate the call in spring 2024, with the goal of acquiring new sources of electricity as early as 2028, even as clean electricity affordability features prominently in Ontario's election discourse.

 

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Renewables are not making electricity any more expensive

Renewables' Impact on US Wholesale Electricity Prices is clear: DOE analysis shows wind and solar, capacity gains, and natural gas lowering rates, shifting daily patterns, and triggering occasional negative pricing in PJM and ERCOT.

 

Key Points

DOE data show wind and solar lower wholesale prices, reshape price curves, and cause negative pricing in markets.

✅ Natural gas price declines remain the largest driver of cheaper power

✅ Wind and solar shift seasonal and time-of-day price patterns

✅ Negative wholesale prices appear near high wind and solar output

 

One of the arguments that's consistently been raised against doing anything about climate change is that it will be expensive. On the more extreme end of the spectrum, there have been dire warnings about plunging standards of living due to skyrocketing electricity prices. The plunging cost of renewables like solar cheaper than gas has largely silenced these warnings, but a new report from the Department of Energy suggests that, even earlier, renewables were actually lowering the price of electricity in the United States.

 

Plunging prices
The report focuses on wholesale electricity prices in the US. Note that these are distinct from the prices consumers actually pay, which includes taxes, fees, payments to support the grid that delivers the electricity, and so on. It's entirely possible for wholesale electricity prices to drop even as consumers end up paying more, and market reforms determine how those changes are passed through. That said, large changes in the wholesale price should ultimately be passed on to consumers to one degree or another.

The Department of Energy analysis focuses on the decade between 2008 and 2017, and it includes an overall analysis of the US market, as well as large individual grids like PJM and ERCOT and, finally, local prices. The decade saw a couple of important trends: low natural gas prices that fostered a rapid expansion of gas-fired generators and the rapid expansion of renewable generation that occurred concurrently with a tremendous drop in price of wind and solar power.

Much of the electricity generated by renewables in this time period would be more expensive than that generated by wind and solar installed today. Not only have prices for the hardware dropped, but the hardware has improved in ways that provide higher capacity factors, meaning that they generate a greater percentage of the maximum capacity. (These changes include things like larger blades on wind turbines and tracking systems for solar panels.) At the same time, operating wind and solar is essentially free once they're installed, so they can always offer a lower price than competing fossil fuel plants.

With those caveats laid out, what does the analysis show? Almost all of the factors influencing the wholesale electricity price considered in this analysis are essentially neutral. Only three factors have pushed the prices higher: the retirement of some plants, the rising price of coal, and prices put on carbon, which only affect some of the regional grids.

In contrast, the drop in the price of natural gas has had a very large effect on the wholesale power price. Depending on the regional grid, it's driven a drop of anywhere from $7 to $53 per megawatt-hour. It's far and away the largest influence on prices over the past decade.

 

Regional variation and negative prices
But renewables have had an influence as well. That influence has ranged from roughly neutral to a cost reduction of $2.2 per MWh in California, largely driven by solar. While the impact of renewables was relatively minor, it is the second-largest influence after natural gas prices, and the data shows that wind and solar are reducing prices rather than increasing them.

The reports note that renewables are influencing wholesale prices in other ways, however. The growth of wind and solar caused the pattern of seasonal price changes to shift in areas of high wind and solar, as seen with solar reshaping prices in Northern Europe as daylight hours and wind patterns shift with the seasons. Similarly, renewables have a time-of-day effect for similar reasons, helping explain why the grid isn't 100% renewable today, which also influences the daily timing price changes, something that's not an issue with fossil fuel power.

A map showing the areas where wholesale electricity prices have gone negative, with darker colors indicating increased frequency.
Enlarge / A map showing the areas where wholesale electricity prices have gone negative, with darker colors indicating increased frequency.

US DOE
One striking feature of areas where renewable power is prevalent is that there are occasional cases in which an oversupply of renewable energy produces negative electricity prices in the wholesale market. (In the least-surprising statement in the report, it concludes that "negative prices in high-wind and high-solar regions occurred most frequently in hours with high wind and solar output.") In most areas, these negative prices are rare enough that they don't have a significant influence on the wholesale price.

That's not true everywhere, however. Areas on the Great Plains see fairly frequent negative prices, and they're growing in prevalence in areas like California, the Southwest, and the northern areas of New York and New England, while negative prices in France have been observed in similar conditions. In these areas, negative wholesale prices near solar plants have dropped the overall price by 3%. Near wind plants, that figure is 6%.

None of this is meant to indicate that there are no scenarios where expanded renewable energy could eventually cause wholesale prices to rise. At sufficient levels, the need for storage, backup plants, and grid management could potentially offset their low costs, a dynamic sometimes referred to as clean energy's dirty secret by analysts. But it's clear we have not yet reached that point. And if the prices of renewables continue to drop, then that point could potentially recede fast enough not to matter.

 

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City officials take clean energy message to Georgia Power, PSC

Georgia Cities Clean Energy IRP Coalition unites Savannah, Atlanta, Decatur, and Athens-Clarke to shape Georgia Power's Integrated Resource Plan, accelerating renewables, energy efficiency, community solar, and coal retirements through Georgia Public Service Commission hearings.

 

Key Points

Georgia cities working to steer Georgia Power's IRP toward renewables, energy efficiency, and community solar.

✅ Targets coal retirements and doubling renewables by 2035

✅ Advocates data access, transparency, and energy efficiency

✅ Seeks affordable community solar options for low-income customers

 

Savannah is among several Georgia cities that have led the charge forward in recent years to push for clean energy. Now, several of the state's largest municipalities are banding together to demand action from Georgia's largest energy provider.

Hearings regarding Georgia Power's Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) happen every three years, but this year for the first time the cities of Savannah, Decatur, Atlanta and Athens-Clarke and DeKalb counties were at the table.

"It's pretty unprecedented. It's such an important opportunity to get to represent ourselves and our citizens," said City of Savannah Energy Analyst Alicia Brown, the Savannah representative for the Georgia Coalition for Local Governments.

The IRP, which essentially maps out how the company will use its various forms of energy over the next 20 years was filed with the Georgia Public Service Commission (GPSC) in January, the 200-page IRP outlines Georgia Power's plans to shutter nearly all Georgia Power-controlled coal units, similar to Tucson Electric Power's coal exit timelines elsewhere, which could begin later this year.

The company is also planning to double its renewable energy generation by 2035. The IRP also outlines plans for several programs, including an Income-Qualified Community Solar Pilot, reflecting momentum for community energy programs in other states as well.

During the hearings the coalition, alongside the other groups, had the ability to question Georgia Power officials about the plan to include the proposed increase per kilowatt for the company's Simple Solar program, Behind-the-Meter Solar program study and various other components, amid debates over solar strategy in the South that could impact lower income customers.

"The established and open IRP process is central to effective, long-term energy planning in Georgia and is part of our commitment to 2.7 million customers to deliver clean, safe, reliable and affordable energy. In continuing our longstanding relationship with the City of Savannah, we welcome their interest and participation in the IRP process," John Kraft, Georgia Power spokesman said in an email.

Brown said the coalition's areas of interest fall into three categories: energy efficiency and demand response, data access and transparency and renewable energy for citizens as well as the governments in the coalition.

"We have these renewable goals and just the way the current regulations are set, the way the current laws are on the books, and developments like consumer choice in California show how policy shifts can reshape utility markets, it's very challenging for us to meet those renewable energy goals without Georgia Power setting up programs that are workable for us," she said.

The city of Savannah is already taking action locally to reduce carbon emissions and move toward clean and renewable energy through the 100% Savannah Clean Energy Plan, which was adopted by Savannah City Council in December.

The plan aims to achieve 100% renewable electricity community-wide by 2035 and 100% renewable energy for all energy needs by 2050.

Council previously approved the 100% Clean Energy Resolution needed to develop the plan in March 2020, making Savannah the fifth city in the state to pledge to pursue a lower carbon future to fight climate change.

The final plan includes 45 strategies that fall into five categories: energy efficiency; renewable energy; transportation and mobility; community and economic development; and education and engagement.

Brown said the education and engagement component is central to the plan, but the pandemic has hindered community education and awareness efforts, and utilities have warned customers about pandemic-related scams that complicate outreach, something the city hopes to catapult in the coming weeks.

"With the 100% Savannah resolution passing right before the pandemic, we haven't had as many opportunities to raise awareness about the initiative and to educate the public about clean energy as we would like. This transition will present a lot of opportunities for our communities, but only if people know that they are there to be taken," she said.

"... We also want to engage the community so that they feel like they are developing this vision for a healthy, prosperous, clean community alongside us. It's not just us telling them, 'we're going to have a clean energy future and it's going to look like this,' but really helping them to develop and realize a collective vision for what 100% Savannah should be."

The final round of IRP hearings are scheduled for next month. Those hearings will allow the coalition and other groups to put witnesses on the stand who will make the case for why Georgia Power's IRP should be different, Brown said.

In June, Georgia Power, following a June bill reduction for customers, will have a chance to offer rebuttal testimony and will again be subject to cross examination. Shortly after those hearings, the parties will join together for the settlement process, a sort of compromise on the plan that the commission will vote on toward the beginning of July.

 

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Vehicle-to-grid could be ‘capacity on wheels’ for electricity networks

Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) enables EV batteries to provide grid balancing, flexibility, and demand response, integrating renewables with bidirectional charging, reducing peaker plant reliance, and unlocking distributed energy storage from millions of connected electric vehicles.

 

Key Points

Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) lets EVs export power via bidirectional charging to balance grids and support renewables.

✅ Turns parked EVs into distributed energy storage assets

✅ Delivers balancing services and demand response to the grid

✅ Cuts peaker plant use and supports renewable integration

 

“There are already many Gigawatt-hours of batteries on wheels”, which could be used to provide balance and flexibility to electrical grids, if the “ultimate potential” of vehicle-to-grid (V2G) technology could be harnessed.

That’s according to a panel of experts and stakeholders convened by our sister site Current±, which covers the business models and technologies inherent to the low carbon transition to decentralised and clean energy. Focusing mainly on the UK grid but opening up the conversation to other territories and the technologies themselves, representatives including distribution network operator (DNO) Northern Powergrid’s policy and markets director and Nissan Europe’s director of energy services debated the challenges, benefits and that aforementioned ultimate potential.

Decarbonisation of energy systems and of transport go hand-in-hand amid grid challenges from rising EV uptake, with vehicle fuel currently responsible for more emissions than electricity used for energy elsewhere, as Ian Cameron, head of innovation at DNO UK Power Networks says in the Q&A article.

“Furthermore, V2G technology will further help decarbonisation by replacing polluting power plants that back up the electrical grid,” Marc Trahand from EV software company Nuvve Corporation added, pointing to California grid stability initiatives as a leading example.

While the panel states that there will still be a place for standalone utility-scale energy storage systems, various speakers highlighted that there are over 20GWh of so-called ‘batteries on wheels’ in the US, capable of powering buildings as needed, and up to 10 million EVs forecast for Britain’s roads by 2030.

“…it therefore doesn’t make sense to keep building expensive standalone battery farms when you have all this capacity on wheels that just needs to be plugged into bidirectional chargers,” Trahand said.

 

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New England Is Burning the Most Oil for Electricity Since 2018

New England oil-fired generation surges as ISO New England manages a cold snap, dual-fuel switching, and a natural gas price spike, highlighting winter reliability challenges, LNG and pipeline limits, and rising CO2 emissions.

 

Key Points

Reliance on oil-burning power plants during winter demand spikes when natural gas is costly or constrained.

✅ Driven by dual-fuel switching amid high natural gas prices

✅ ISO-NE winter reliability rules encourage oil stockpiles

✅ Raises CO2 emissions despite coal retirements and renewables growth

 

New England is relying on oil-fired generators for the most electricity since 2018 as a frigid blast boosts demand for power and natural gas prices soar across markets. 

Oil generators were producing more than 4,200 megawatts early Thursday, accounting for about a quarter of the grid’s power supply, according to ISO New England. That was the most since Jan. 6, 2018, when oil plants produced as much as 6.4 gigawatts, or 32% of the grid’s output, said Wood Mackenzie analyst Margaret Cashman.  

Oil is typically used only when demand spikes, because of higher costs and emissions concerns. Consumption has been consistently high over the past three weeks as some generators switch from gas, which has surged in price in recent months. New England generators are producing power from oil at an average rate of almost 1.8 gigawatts so far this month, the highest for January in at least five years. 

Oil’s share declined to 16% Friday morning ahead of an expected snowstorm, which was “a surprise,” Cashman said. 

“It makes me wonder if some of those generators are aiming to reserve their fuel for this weekend,” she said.

During the recent cold snap, more than a tenth of the electricity generated in New England has been produced by power plants that haven’t happened for at least 15 years.

Burning oil for electricity was standard practice throughout the region for decades. It was once our most common fuel for power and as recently as 2000, fully 19% of the six-state region’s electricity came from burning oil, according to ISO-New England, more than any other source except nuclear power at the time.

Since then, however, natural gas has gotten so cheap that most oil-fired plants have been shut or converted to burn gas, to the point that just 1% of New England’s electricity came from oil in 2018, whereas about half our power came from natural gas generation regionally during that period. This is good because natural gas produces less pollution, both particulates and greenhouse gasses, although exactly how much less is a matter of debate.

But as you probably know, there’s a problem: Natural gas is also used for heating, which gets first dibs. Prolonged cold snaps require so much gas to keep us warm, a challenge echoed in Ontario’s electricity system as supply tightens, that there might not be enough for power plants – at least, not at prices they’re willing to pay.

After we came close to rolling brownouts during the polar vortex in the 2017-18 winter because gas-fired power plants cut back so much, ISO-NE, which has oversight of the power grid, established “winter reliability” rules. The most important change was to pay power plants to become dual-fuel, meaning they can switch quickly between natural gas and oil, and to stockpile oil for winter cold snaps.

We’re seeing that practice in action right now, as many dual-fuel plants have switched away from gas to oil, just as was intended.

That switch is part of the reason EPA says the region’s carbon emissions have gone up in the pandemic, from 22 million tons of CO2 in 2019 to 24 million tons in 2021. That reverses a long trend caused partly by closing of coal plants and partly by growing solar and offshore wind capacity: New England power generation produced 36 million tons of CO2 a decade ago.

So if we admit that a return to oil burning is bad, and it is, what can we do in future winters? There are many possibilities, including tapping more clean imports such as Canadian hydropower to diversify supply.

The most obvious solution is to import more natural gas, especially from fracked fields in New York state and Pennsylvania. But efforts to build pipelines to do that have been shot down a couple of times and seem unlikely to go forward and importing more gas via ocean tanker in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG) is also an option, but hits limits in terms of port facilities.

Aside from NIMBY concerns, the problem with building pipelines or ports to import more gas is that pipelines and ports are very expensive. Once they’re built they create a financial incentive to keep using natural gas for decades to justify the expense, similar to moves such as Ontario’s new gas plants that lock in generation. That makes it much harder for New England to decarbonize and potentially leaves ratepayers on the hook for a boatload of stranded costs.

 

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