Electricity use surges

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Scorching temperatures have pushed demand for electricity in Ohio and Michigan to near-record levels.

The thirst for power on June 27 - when the temperature lhit 97 degrees - easily eclipsed the demand in the region from the day of the nation's worst blackout on Aug. 14, 2003.

Demand on June 27 from home and office air conditioners and other uses peaked at more than 100,000 megawatts in a nine-state region that includes Ohio and Michigan, according to an industry group that oversees the electric grid.

The situation prompted an independent system operator of the grid to issue a low-level alert to power companies to be aware that local electricity-generating capacity was nearing its limit.

"It's not all that unusual for this time of year, but it was the first one we have issued this year," said Gary Rasp, spokesman for the Midwest ISO of Carmel, Ind.

The bottom line is there has not been a power shortage, but electricity has been in enough demand for standby power plants to kick into gear and sell their electricity at relatively high rates to utilities trying to meet the need.

The operator of one such plant, Troy Energy LLC in northern Wood County, said some or all of its four units have been operating "pretty consistently" over the last five days, an unusual occurrence because the plant is fueled by expensive natural gas.

"That certainly is an indicator that it's very hot," said Jim Norvelle, spokesman for the Troy Township plant's owner, Dominion Resources Inc.

The spot market for electricity in Ohio, where a utility needing more power would find it, sold electricity for $77 a megawatt hour on Monday and $81 on Tuesday, up from $68 on Friday. In Michigan, where the spot market is costlier because of fewer power plants, the price hit $110 June 28, up from $70 June 24.

A typical Ohio coal-fired utility plant can generate power for about $8 a megawatt hour.

The pricier energy to fulfill demand shouldn't affect customers of FirstEnergy Corp. because its rates are frozen through the end of this year. It isn't known, however, whether the utility bought any electricity to supply its customers.

The Akron firm that owns Toledo Edison refused yesterday to disclose how much power is being used in its region or whether it is buying any to meet demand.

Consumers Energy in Michigan, however, said its system hit a monthly record peak of 8,327 megawatts between 4 and 5 p.m. Monday. It provides power to residents in Monroe, Hillsdale, and Lenawee counties.

The all-time peak demand for the nine-state upper Midwest region was 101,346 megawatts in August, 2001. On the day of the 2003 blackout, demand was 95,800 megawatts.

If demand continues at such a high rate, the Midwest ISO said it could be forced to issue a warning to local utilities, and ultimately could intervene and shut down some transmission areas to prevent a collapse of the grid, as occurred in the 2003 blackout.

A senior staff engineer at the East Central Area Reliability Council, Paul Kure, said a new record demand is expected this summer, exceeding 103,000 megawatts.

The region has been helped, he said, because Ohio, Michigan, and other states in the Midwest have added in the past three years more of the standby plants. Those plants, which operate in peak periods, are expensive to run because of the cost of natural gas that fuels them.

Because of the building frenzy and the existing utilities, the nine-state region's electricity generation capacity is close to 127,000 megawatts, Mr. Kure said.

However, often 10 percent or more of that is out of service at any given time, he added.

Still, consumers will pay for the comfort, at least indirectly. With the standby plants gobbling up natural gas, less of that fuel will be in storage for the winter months, typically the time of highest demand for heating.

With less inventory, prices for natural gas likely will remain high, boosting heating bills.

"You'll know around September how much is stored up, and if there's a shortage by then and we get a cold winter, prices will skyrocket," said Larry Barton, a consultant with Palmer Energy Co. of Toledo.

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Taiwan's economic minister resigns over widespread power outage

Taiwan Power Blackout disrupts Taipei and commercial hubs after a Taoyuan natural gas plant error, triggering nationwide outage, grid failure, elevator rescues, power rationing, and the economic minister's resignation, as CPC Corporation restores supply.

 

Key Points

A nationwide Taiwan outage from human error at a Taoyuan gas plant, triggering rationing and a minister's resignation.

✅ Human error disrupted natural gas supply at Taoyuan plant

✅ 6.68 million users affected; grid failure across cities

✅ Minister Lee resigned; President Tsai ordered a review

 

Taiwan's economic minister resigned after power was knocked out in many parts of Taiwan, with regional parallels such as China power cuts highlighting grid vulnerabilities, including capital Taipei's business and high-end shopping district, due to an apparent "human error" at a key power plant.

Economic Affairs minister Lee Chih-kung tendered his resignation verbally to Premier Lin Chuan, United Daily News reported, citing a Cabinet spokesman. Lin accepted the resignation, the spokesman said according to the daily.

As many as 6.68 million households and commercial units saw their power supply cut or disrupted on Tuesday after "human error" disrupted natural gas supply at a power plant in northern Taiwan's Taoyuan, the semi-official Central News Agency reported, citing the government-controlled oil company CPC Corporation as saying.

The company added that power at the plant, Taiwan's biggest natural gas power plant, resumed two minutes later.

In New Taipei City, there were at least 27,000 reported cases of people being stuck in lifts. Photos in social media also showed huge crowds stranded in lift lobby in Taipei's iconic 101-storey Taipei 101 building.

Power rationing was implemented beginning 6pm, and, as seen in the National Grid short supply warning in other markets, such steps aim to stabilize supply, Central News Agency said. Power supply was gradually being restored beginning at about 9:40pm. news reports said.

President Tsai Ing-wen apologised for the blackout, noting parallels with Japan's near-blackouts that underscored grid resilience, and said that she has ordered all relevant departments to produce clear report in the shortest time possible.

"Electricity is not just a problem about people's livelihoods but also a national security issue. A comprehensive review must be carried out to find out how the electric power system can be so easily paralysed by human error," said Ms Tsai in a Facebook post.

Taiwan has been at risk of a power shortage after a recent typhoon knocked down a power transmission tower in Hualien county along the eastern coast of Taiwan, rather than a demand-driven slowdown like the China power demand drop during pandemic factory shutdowns. This reduced the electricity supply by 1.3million kilowatts, or about 4 per cent of the operating reserve.

That was followed by the breakdown of a power generator at Taiwan's largest power plant, which further reduced the operating reserve by 1.5 per cent.

The situation is worsened by the ongoing heatwave that has hit Taiwan, with temperatures soaring to 38 degrees Celsius over the past week.

As a result, the government had imposed the rationing of electricity, and, highlighting how regional strains such as China's power woes can ripple into global markets, switched off all air-conditioning in many of its Taipei offices, a move that drew some public backlash.

 

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Tackling climate change with machine learning: Covid-19 and the energy transition

Covid-19 Energy Transition and Machine Learning reshape climate change policy, electricity planning, and grid operations, from demand forecasting and decarbonization strategies in Europe to scalable electrification modeling and renewable integration across Africa.

 

Key Points

How the pandemic reshapes energy policy and how ML improves planning, demand forecasts, and grid reliability in Africa.

✅ Pandemic-driven demand shifts strain grid operations and markets

✅ Policy momentum risks rollback; favor future-oriented decarbonization

✅ ML boosts demand prediction, electrification, and grid reliability in Africa

 

The impact of Covid-19 on the energy system was discussed in an online climate change workshop that also considered how machine learning can help electricity planning in Africa.

This year’s International Conference on Learning Representations event included a workshop held by the Climate Change AI group of academics and artificial intelligence industry representatives, which considered how machine learning can help tackle climate change and highlighted advances by European electricity prediction specialists working in this field.

Bjarne Steffen, senior researcher at the energy politics group at ETH Zürich, shared his insights at the workshop on how Covid-19 and the accompanying economic crisis are affecting recently introduced ‘green’ policies. “The crisis hit at a time when energy policies were experiencing increasing momentum towards climate action, especially in Europe, and in proposals to invest in smarter electricity infrastructure for long-term resilience,” said Steffen, who added the coronavirus pandemic has cast into doubt the implementation of such progressive policies.

The academic said there was a risk of overreacting to the public health crisis, as far as progress towards climate change goals was concerned.

 

Lobbying

“Many interest groups from carbon-intensive industries are pushing to remove the emissions trading system and other green policies,” said Steffen. “In cases where those policies are having a serious impact on carbon-emitting industries, governments should offer temporary waivers during this temporary crisis, instead of overhauling the regulatory structure.”

However, the ETH Zürich researcher said any temptation to impose environmental conditions to bail-outs for carbon-intensive industries should be resisted. “While it is tempting to push a green agenda in the relief packages, tying short-term environmental conditions to bail-outs is impractical, given the uncertainty in how long this crisis will last,” he said. “It is better to include provisions that will give more control over future decisions to decarbonize industries, such as the government taking equity shares in companies.”

Steffen shared with pv magazine readers an article published in Joule which can be accessed here, and which articulates his arguments about how Covid-19 could affect the energy transition.

 

Covid-19 in the U.K.

The electricity system in the U.K. is also being affected by Covid-19, even as the U.S. electric grid grapples with climate risks, according to Jack Kelly, founder of London-based, not-for-profit, greenhouse gas emission reduction research laboratory Open Climate Fix.

“The crisis has reduced overall electricity use in the U.K.,” said Kelly. “Residential use has increased but this has not offset reductions in commercial and industrial loads.”

Steve Wallace, a power system manager at British electricity system operator National Grid ESO recently told U.K. broadcaster the BBC electricity demand has fallen 15-20% across the U.K. The National Grid ESO blog has stated the fall-off makes managing grid functions such as voltage regulation more challenging.

Open Climate Fix’s Kelly noted even events such as a nationally-coordinated round of applause for key workers was followed by a dramatic surge in demand, stating: “On April 16, the National Grid saw a nearly 1 GW spike in electricity demand over 10 minutes after everyone finished clapping for healthcare workers and went about the rest of their evenings.”

Climate Change AI workshop panelists also discussed the impact machine learning could have on improving electricity planning in Africa. The Electricity Growth and Use in Developing Economies (e-Guide) initiative funded by fossil fuel philanthropic organization the Rockefeller Foundation aims to use data to improve the planning and operation of electricity systems in developing countries.

E-Guide members Nathan Williams, an assistant professor at the Rochester Institute of Technology (RIT) in New York state, and Simone Fobi, a PhD student at Columbia University in NYC, spoke about their work at the Climate Change AI workshop, which closed on Thursday. Williams emphasized the importance of demand prediction, saying: “Uncertainty around current and future electricity consumption leads to inefficient planning. The weak link for energy planning tools is the poor quality of demand data.”

Fobi said: “We are trying to use machine learning to make use of lower-quality data and still be able to make strong predictions.”

The market maturity of individual solar home systems and PV mini-grids in Africa mean more complex electrification plan modeling is required, similar to integrating AI data centers into Canada's grids at scale.

 

Modeling

“When we are doing [electricity] access planning, we are trying to figure out where the demand will be and how much demand will exist so we can propose the right technology,” added Fobi. “This makes demand estimation crucial to efficient planning.”

Unlike many traditional modeling approaches, machine learning is scalable and transferable. Rochester’s Williams has been using data from nations such as Kenya, which are more advanced in their electrification efforts, to train machine learning models to make predictions to guide electrification efforts in countries which are not as far down the track.

Williams also discussed work being undertaken by e-Guide members at the Colorado School of Mines, which uses nighttime satellite imagery and machine learning to assess the reliability of grid infrastructure in India, where new algorithms to prevent ransomware-induced blackouts are also advancing.

 

Rural power

Another e-Guide project, led by Jay Taneja at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst – and co-funded by the Energy and Economic Growth program on development spending based at Berkeley – uses satellite imagery to identify productive uses of electricity in rural areas by detecting pollution signals from diesel irrigation pumps.

Though good quality data is often not readily available for Africa, Williams added, it does exist.

“We have spent years developing trusting relationships with utilities,” said the RIT academic. “Once our partners realize the value proposition we can offer, they are enthusiastic about sharing their data … We can’t do machine learning without high-quality data and this requires that organizations can effectively collect, organize, store and work with data. Data can transform the electricity sector, as shown by Canadian projects to use AI for energy savings, but capacity building is crucial.”

 

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Covid-19 puts brake on Turkey’s solar sector

Turkey Net Metering Suspension freezes regulator reviews, stalling rooftop solar permits and grid interconnections amid COVID-19, pausing licensing workflows, EPC pipelines, and electricity bill credits that drive commercial and household prosumer adoption.

 

Key Points

A pause on technical reviews freezing net metering applications and slowing rooftop solar deployment in Turkey.

✅ Monthly technical committee meetings suspended indefinitely

✅ Rooftop solar permits and grid interconnections on hold

✅ EPC firms urge remote evaluations for transparency

 

The decision by the Turkish Energy Market Regulatory Authority to halt part of the system of processing net metering applications risks bringing the only vibrant segment of the nation’s solar industry to a grinding halt, a risk amplified as global renewables face Covid-19 disruptions across markets.

The regulator has suspended monthly meetings of the committee which makes technical evaluations of net metering applications, citing concerns about the spread of Covid-19, which has already seen U.S. utility-scale solar face delays this year.

The availability of electricity bill credits for net-metering-approved households which inject surplus power into the grid, similar to how British households can sell power back to energy firms, has seen the rooftop projects the scheme is typically associated with remain the only source of new solar generation capacity in Turkey of late.

However the energy regulator’s decision to suspend technical evaluation committee meetings until further notice has seen the largely online licensing process for new solar systems practically cease; by contrast, Berlin is being urged to remove PV barriers to keep projects moving.

The Turkish solar industry has claimed the move is unnecessary, with solar engineering, procurement and construction services businesses pointing out the committee could meet to evaluate projects remotely. It has been argued such a move would streamline the application process and make it more transparent, regardless of the current public health crisis.

 

Net metering 

Turkey introduced net metering for rooftop installations last May and pv magazine has reported the specifics of the scheme, amid debates like New England's grid upgrade costs over who pays.

National grid operator Teias confirmed recently the country added 109 MW of new solar capacity in the first quarter, most of it net-metered rooftop systems, even as Australian distributors warn excess solar can strain local networks.

Net metering has been particularly attractive to commercial electricity users because the owners of small and medium-sized businesses pay more for power, as solar reshapes electricity prices in Northern Europe, than either households or large scale industrial consumers.

Until the recent technical committee decision by the regulator, the chief obstacle to net metering adoption had been the nation’s economic travails. The Turkish lira has lost 14% of its value since January and around 36% over the last two years. The central bank has been using its foreign reserves to support state lenders and the lira but the national currency slipped near an all-time low on Friday and foreign analysts predict the central bank reserves could run dry in July.

The level of exports shipped last month was down 41% on April last year and imports fell 28% by the same comparison, further depressing the willingness of companies to make capital investments such as rooftop solar.

 

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Roads Need More Electricity: They Will Make It Themselves

Electrically Smart Roads integrate solar road surfaces, inductive charging, IoT sensors, AI analytics, and V2X to power lighting, deicing, and monitoring, reducing grid dependence while enabling dynamic EV charging and real-time traffic management.

 

Key Points

Electrically smart roads generate power, sense conditions, and charge EVs using solar, IoT, AI, and dynamic infrastructure.

✅ Solar surfaces, verges, and gantries generate on-site electricity

✅ Inductive lanes enable dynamic EV charging at highway speeds

✅ Embedded IoT sensors and AI deliver real-time traffic insights

 

As more and more capabilities are added to roads instead of simply covering a country with extra roads, they are starting to make their own electricity, notably as solar road surface but then with added silent wind turbines, photovoltaic verges and barriers and more.

That toll gate, street light and traffic monitoring system all need electricity. Later, roads that deice and charge vehicles at speed will need huge amounts of electricity. For now, electricity for road systems is provided by very expensive infrastructure to the grid, and grid flexibility for EVs remains a concern, except for a few solar/ wind street lights in China and Korea for example. However, as more and more capabilities are added to roads instead of simply covering a country with extra roads, they are starting to make their own electricity, notably as solar road surface but then with added silent wind turbines, photovoltaic verges and barriers and more. There is also highly speculative work in the USA and UK on garnering power from road surface movement using piezoelectrics and electrodynamics and even its heat. 

#google#

China plans to create an intelligent transport system by 2030. The country hopes to build smart roads that will not only be able to charge electric cars as they drive but also monitor temperature, traffic flow and weight load using artificial intelligence. Indeed, like France, the Netherlands and the USA, where U.S. EV charging capacity is under scrutiny, it already has trials of extended lengths of solar road which cost no more than regular roads. In an alternative approach, vehicles go under tunnels of solar panels that also support lighting, light-emitting signage and monitoring equipment using the electricity made where it is needed. See the IDTechEx Research report, Electrically Smart Roads 2018-2028 for more.

Raghu Das, CEO of IDTechEx says, "The spiral vertical axis wind turbines VAWT in Asia rarely rotate because they are too low but much higher versions are planned on large UK roadside vehicle charging centres that should work well. H shaped VAWT is also gaining traction - much slower and quieter than the propeller shape which vibrates and keeps you awake at night in an urban area.

The price gap between the ubiquitous polycrystalline silicon solar cell and the much more efficient single crystal silicon is narrowing. That means that road furniture such as bus shelters and smart gantries will likely go for more solar rather than adding wind power in many cases, a shift mirrored by connected solar tech in homes, because wind power needs a lot of maintenance and its price is not dropping as rapidly."

The IDTechEx Research report, Off Grid Electric Vehicle Charging: Zero Emission 2018-2028 analyses that aspect, while vehicle-to-grid strategies may complement grid resources. The prototype of a smart road is already in place on an expressway outside of Jinan, providing better traffic updates as well as more accurate mapping. Verizon's IoT division has launched a project around intelligent asphalt, which it thinks has the potential to significantly reduce fossil fuel emissions and save time by reducing up to 44% of traffic backups. It has partnered with Sacramento, California, to test this theory.

"By embedding sensors into the pavement as well as installing cameras on traffic lights, we will be able to study and analyze the flow of traffic. Then, we will take all of that data and use it to optimize the timing of lights so that traffic flows easier and travel times are shorter," explains Sean Harrington, vice president of Verizon Smart Communities.

Colorado's Department of Transportation has recently announced its intention to be the first state to pilot smart roads by striking a five-year deal with a smart road company to test the technology. Like planned auto-deicing roads elsewhere, the aim of this project is, first and foremost, to save lives. The technology will detect when a car suddenly leaves a road and send emergency assistance to the area. The IDTechEx Research report Electrically Smart Roads 2018-2028 describes how others work on real time structural monitoring of roads and embedded interactive lighting and road surface signage.

"Smart pavement can make that determination and send that information directly into a vehicle," Peter Kozinski, director of CDOT's RoadX division, tells the Denver Post. "Data is the new asphalt of transportation."   Sensors, processors and other technology are embedded in the Colorado road to extend capability beyond accidents and reach into better road maintenance. Fast adoption relies on the ability to rapidly install sensor-laden pavement or lay concrete slabs. Attention therefore turns to fast adaptation of existing roads. Indeed, even for the heavy coil arrays used for dynamic vehicle charging, even as state power grids face new challenges, in Israel there are machines that can retrofit into the road surface at a remarkable two kilometres of cut and insert in a day.

"It's hard to imagine that these things are inexpensive, with all the electronics in them," Charles Schwartz, a professor of civil and environmental engineering at the University of Maryland, tells the Denver Post concerning the vehicle sensing project, "but CDOT is a fairly sophisticated agency, and this is an interesting pilot project. We can learn a lot, even if the test is only partially successful."

 

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Most Energy Will Come From Fossil Fuels, Even In 2040

2040 Energy Outlook projects a shifting energy mix as renewables scale, EV adoption accelerates, and IEA forecasts plateauing oil demand alongside rising natural gas, highlighting policy, efficiency, and decarbonization trends that shape global consumption.

 

Key Points

A data-driven view of future energy mix, covering renewables, fossil fuels, EVs, oil demand, and policy impacts.

✅ Renewables reach 16-30% by 2040, higher with strong policy support.

✅ Fossil fuels remain dominant, with oil flat and natural gas rising.

✅ EV share surges, cutting oil use; efficiency curbs demand growth.

 

Which is more plausible: flying taxis, wind turbine arrays stretching miles into the ocean, and a solar roof on every house--or a scorched-earth, flooded post-Apocalyptic world? 

We have no way of peeking into the future, but we can certainly imagine it. There is plenty of information about where the world is headed and regardless of how reliable this information is—or isn’t—we never stop wondering. Will the energy world of 20 years from now be better or worse than the world we live in now? 

The answer may very well lie in the observable trends.


A Growing Population

The global population is growing, and it will continue to grow in the next two decades. This will drive a steady growth in energy demand, at about 1 percent per year, according to the International Energy Agency.

This modest rate of growth is good news for all who are concerned about the future of the planet. Parts of the world are trying to reduce their energy consumption, and this should have a positive effect on the carbon footprint of humanity. The energy thirst of most parts of the world will continue growing, however, hence the overall growth.

The world’s population is currently growing at a rate of a little over 1 percent annually. This rate of growth has been slowing since its peak in the 1960s and forecasts suggest that it will continue to slow. Growth in energy demand, on the other hand, may at some point stop moving in tune with population growth trends as affluence in some parts of the world grows. The richer people get, the more energy they need. So, to the big question: where will this energy come from?


The Rise of Renewables

For all the headline space they have been claiming, it may come as a disappointing surprise to many that renewable energy, excluding hydropower, to date accounts for just 14 percent of the global primary energy mix. 

Certainly, adoption of solar and wind energy has been growing in leaps and bounds, with their global share doubling in five years in many markets, but unless governments around the world commit a lot more money and effort to renewable energy, by 2040, solar and wind’s share in the energy mix will still only rise to about 16 to 17 percent. That’s according to the only comprehensive report on the future of energy that collates data from all the leading energy authorities in the world, by non-profit Resources for the Future.

The growth in renewables adoption, however, would be a lot more impressive if governments do make serious commitments. Under that scenario, the share of renewables will double to over 30 percent by 2040, echoing milestones like over 30% of global electricity reached recently: that’s the median rate of all authoritative forecasts. Amongst them, the adoption rates of renewables vary between 15 percent and 61 percent by 2040.

Even the most bullish of the forecasts on renewables is still far below the 100-percent renewable future many would like to fantasize about, although BNEF’s 50% by 2050 outlook points to what could be possible in the power sector. 

But in 2040, most of the world’s energy will still come from fossil fuels.


EV Energy

Here, forecasters are more optimistic. Again, there is a wide variation between forecasts, but in each and every one of them the share of electric vehicles on the world’s roads in 2040 is a lot higher than the meagre 1 percent of the global car fleet EVs constitute today.
Related: Gas Prices Languish As Storage Falls To Near-Record Lows

Government policy will be the key, as U.S. progress toward 30% wind and solar shows how policy steers the power mix that EVs ultimately depend on. Bans of internal combustion engines will go a long way toward boosting EV adoption, which is why some forecasters expect electric cars to come to account for more than 50 percent of cars on the road in 2040. Others, however, are more guarded in their forecasts, seeing their share of the global fleet at between 16 percent and a little over 40 percent.

Many pin their hopes for a less emission-intensive future on electric cars. Indeed, as the number of EVs rises, they displace ICE vehicles and, respectively, the emission-causing oil that fuels for ICE cars are made from.  It should be a no brainer that the more EVs we drive, the less emissions we produce. Unfortunately, this is not necessarily the case: China is the world’s biggest EV market, and its solar PV expansion has been rapid, it has the most EVs—including passenger cars and buses—but it is also one of the biggest emitters.

Still, by 2040, if the more optimistic forecasts come true, the world will be consuming less oil than it is consuming now: anywhere from 1.2 million bpd to 20 million bpd less, the latter case envisaging an all-electric global fleet in 2040. 


This Ain’t Your Daddy’s Oil

No, it ain’t. It’s your grandchildren’s oil, for good or for bad. The vision of an oil-free world where renewable power is both abundant and cheap enough to replace all the ways in which crude oil and natural gas are used will in 2040 still be just that--a vision, with practical U.S. grid constraints underscoring the challenges. Even the most optimistic energy scenarios for two decades from now see them as the dominant source of energy, with forecasts ranging between 60 percent and 79 percent. While these extremes are both below the over-80 percent share fossil fuels have in the world’s energy mix, they are well above 50 percent, and in the U.S. renewables are projected to reach about one-fourth of electricity soon, even as fossil fuels remain foundational.

Still, there is good news. Fuel efficiency alone will reduce oil demand significantly by 2040. In fact, according to the IEA, demand will plateau at a little over 100 million bpd by the mid-2030s. Combined with the influx of EVs many expect, the world of 20 years from now may indeed be consuming a lot less oil than the world of today. It will, however, likely consume a lot more natural gas. There is simply no way around fossil fuels, not yet. Unless a miracle of politics happens (complete with a ripple effect that will cost millions of people their jobs) in 2040 we will be as dependent on oil and gas as we are but we will hopefully breathe cleaner air.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

 

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Electricity Payouts on Biggest U.S. Grid Fall 64 Per Cent in Auction

PJM Capacity Auction Price Drop signals PJM Interconnection capacity market shifts, with $50/MW-day clearing, higher renewables and nuclear participation, declining coal, natural gas pressure, and zone impacts in ComEd and EMAAC, amid 21% reserve margins.

 

Key Points

A decline to $50 per MW-day in PJM capacity prices, shifting resource mix, zonal rates, and reserve margins.

✅ Clearing price fell to $50/MW-day from $140 in 2018

✅ Renewables and nuclear up; coal units down across PJM

✅ Zonal prices: ComEd $68.96, EMAAC $97.86; 21% reserves

 

Power-plant owners serving the biggest U.S. grid will be paid 64% less next year for being on standby to keep the lights on from New Jersey to Illinois.

Suppliers to PJM Interconnection LLC’s grid, which serves more than 65 million people, will get $50 a megawatt-day to provide capacity for the the year starting June 2022, according to the results of an auction released Wednesday. That’s down sharply from $140 in the previous auction, held in 2018. Analysts had expected the price would fall to about $85.

“Renewables, nuclear and new natural gas generators saw the greatest increases in cleared capacity, while coal units saw the largest decrease,” PJM said in a statement.

The PJM auction is the single most important event for power generators across the eastern U.S., including Calpine Corp., NRG Energy Inc. and Exelon Corp., because it dictates a big chunk of their future revenue. It also plays a pivotal role in shaping the region’s electricity mix, determining how much the region is willing to stick with coal and natural gas plants or replace them with wind and solar even as the aging grid complicates progress nationwide.

The results showed that the capacity price for the Chicago-area zone, known as ComEd, was $68.96 compared with $195.55 in the last auction. The price for the Pennsylvania and New Jersey zone, known as EMAAC, fell to $97.86 percent, from $165.73. All told, 144,477 megawatts cleared, representing a reserve margin of 21%.

Exelon shares fell 0.4% after the results were released. Vistra fell 1.5%. NRG was unchanged.

Blackouts triggered by extreme weather in Texas and California over the last year have reignited a debate over whether other regions should institute capacity systems similar to the one used by PJM, and whether to adopt measures like emergency fuel stock programs in New England as well. The market, which pays generators to be on standby in case extra power is needed, has long been a source of controversy. While it makes the grid more reliable, the system drives up costs for consumers. In the area around Chicago, for instance, these charges total more than $1.7 billion per year, accounting for 20% of customer bills, according to the Illinois Clean Jobs Coalition.

In the 2018 auction, PJM contracted supplies that were about 22% in excess of the peak demand projection at the time. This year, the grid is projected to start summer with a reserve margin of about 26%, as COVID-19 demand shifts persist, according to the market monitor -- far higher than the 16% most engineers say is needed to prevent major outages.

“This certainly doesn’t seem fair to ratepayers,” said Ari Peskoe, director of Harvard Law School’s Electricity Law Initiative.

Fossil-Fuel Advantage
Heading into the auction, analysts expected coal and gas plants to have the advantage. Nuclear reactors and renewables, they said, were poised to struggle amid coal and nuclear disruptions nationwide.

That’s because this is the first PJM auction run under a major pricing change imposed by federal regulators during the Trump administration. The new structure creates a price floor for some bidders, effectively hobbling nuclear and renewables that receive state subsidies while making it easier for fossil fuels to compete.

Those rules triggered contentious wrangling between power providers, PJM and federal regulators, delaying the auction for two years. The new system, however, may be short lived. The Biden administration is moving to overhaul the rules in time for the next auction in December.

Also See: Biden Climate Goals to Take Backseat in Biggest U.S. Power Grid

Dominion Energy Inc., one of the biggest U.S. utility owners, pulled out of the market over the rules. The Virginia-based company, which has a goal to have net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, said the new PJM format will “make renewables more expensive” than delivering clean energy through alternative markets.

Illinois, New Jersey and Maryland have also threatened to leave the capacity market unless the new price floor is eliminated, and Connecticut is leading a market overhaul in New England as well. PJM has already launched a process to do it.

PJM is already one of the most fossil-fuel intensive grids, with 60% of its electricity coming from coal and gas. Power plants that bid into the auction rely on it for the bulk of their revenue. That means plants that win contracts have an incentive to continue operating for as long as they can, even amid a supply-chain crisis this summer.

 

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