Boxer will 'hound' Bush on emissions regulations

Global Electricity Demand Surge underscores rising coal generation, lagging renewables deployment, and escalating emissions, as nations prioritize reliable power; nuclear energy and grid decarbonization emerge as pivotal solutions to the electricity transition.

Key Points

A rapid post-lockdown rise in power consumption, outpacing renewables growth and driving higher coal use and emissions.

✅ Coal generation rises faster than wind and solar additions

✅ Emissions increase as economies prioritize reliable baseload power

✅ Nuclear power touted for rapid grid decarbonization

By Robert Bryce

As the Covid lockdowns are easing, the global economy is recovering and that recovery is fueling blistering growth in electricity use. The latest data from Ember, the London-based “climate and energy think tank focused on accelerating the global electricity transition,” show that global power demand soared by about 5% in the first half of 2021. That’s faster growth than was happening back in 2018 when electricity use was increasing by about 4% per year.

The numbers from Ember also show that despite lots of talk about the urgent need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, coal demand for power generation continues to grow and emissions from the electric sector continue to grow: up by 5% over the first half of 2019. In addition, they show that while about half of the growth in electricity demand was met by wind and solar, as low-emissions sources are set to cover almost all new demand over the next three years, overall growth in electricity use is still outstripping the growth in renewables. 

The soaring use of electricity, and increasing emissions from power generation confirm the sage wisdom of Rasheed Wallace, the volatile former power forward with the Detroit Pistons and other NBA teams, and now an assistant coach at the  University of Memphis, who coined the catchphrase: “Ball don’t lie.” If Wallace or one of his teammates was called for a foul during a basketball game that he thought was undeserved, and the opposing player missed the ensuing free throws, Wallace would often holler, “ball don’t lie,” as if the basketball itself was pronouncing judgment on the referee’s errant call. 

I often think about Wallace’s catchphrase while looking at global energy and power trends and substitute my own phrase: numbers don’t lie.

Over the past few weeks Ember, BP, and the International Energy Agency have all published reports which come to the same two conclusions: that countries all around the world — and China's electricity sector in particular — are doing whatever they need to do to get the electricity they need to grow their economies. Second, they are using lots of coal to get that juice. 

As I discuss in my recent book, A Question of Power: Electricity and the Wealth of Nations, Electricity is the world’s most important and fastest-growing form of energy. The Ember data proves that. At a growth rate of 5%, global electricity use will double in about 14 years, and as surging electricity demand is putting power systems under strain around the world, the electricity sector also accounts for the biggest single share of global carbon dioxide emissions: about 25 percent. Thus, if we are to have any hope of cutting global emissions, the electricity sector is pivotal. Further, the soaring use of electricity shows that low-income people and countries around the world are not content to stay in the dark. They want to live high-energy lives with access to all the electronic riches that we take for granted.  

 Ember’s data clearly shows that decarbonizing the global electric grid will require finding a substitute for coal. Indeed, coal use may be plummeting in the U.S. and western Europe, where U.S. electricity consumption has been declining, but over the past two years, several developing countries including Mongolia, China, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, and India, all boosted their use of coal. This was particularly obvious in China, where, between the first half of 2019 and the first half of 2021, electricity demand jumped by about 14%. Of that increase, coal-fired generation provided roughly twice as much new electricity as wind and solar combined. In Pakistan, electricity demand jumped by about 7%, and coal provided more than three times as much new electricity as nuclear and about three times as much as hydro. (Wind and solar did not grow at all in Pakistan over that period.) 

Hate coal all you like, but its century-long persistence in power generation proves its importance. That persistence proves that climate change concerns are not as important to most consumers and policymakers as reliable electricity. In 2010, Roger Pielke Jr. dubbed this the Iron Law of Climate Policy which says “When policies on emissions reductions collide with policies focused on economic growth, economic growth will win out every time.” Pielke elaborated on that point, saying the Iron Law is a “boundary condition on policy design that is every bit as limiting as is the second law of thermodynamics, and it holds everywhere around the world, in rich and poor countries alike. It says that even if people are willing to bear some costs to reduce emissions (and experience shows that they are), they are willing to go only so far.”

Over the past five years, I’ve written a book about electricity, co-produced a feature-length documentary film about it (Juice: How Electricity Explains the World), and launched a podcast that focuses largely on energy and power. I’m convinced that Pielke’s claim is exactly right and should be extended to electricity and dubbed the Iron Law of Electricity which says, “when forced to choose between dirty electricity and no electricity, people will choose dirty electricity every time.” I saw this at work in electricity-poor places all over the world, including India, Lebanon, and Puerto Rico. 

Pielke, a professor at the University of Colorado as well as a highly regarded author on the politics of climate change and sports governance, has since elaborated on the Iron Law. During an interview in Juice, he explained it thusly: “The Iron Law says we’re not going to reduce emissions by willingly getting poor. Rich people aren't going to want to get poorer, poor people aren't going to want to get poorer.” He continued, “If there is one thing that we can count on it is that policymakers will be rewarded by populations if they make people wealthier. We're doing everything we can to try to get richer as nations, as communities, as individuals. If we want to reduce emissions, we really have only one place to go and that's technology.”

Pielke’s point reminds me of another of my favorite energy analysts, Robert Rapier, who made a salient point in his Forbes column last week. He wrote, “Despite the blistering growth rate of renewables, it’s important to keep in mind that overall global energy consumption is growing. Even though global renewable energy consumption has increased by about 21 exajoules in the past decade, overall energy consumption has increased by 51 exajoules. Increased fossil fuel consumption made up most of this growth, with every category of fossil fuels showing increased consumption over the decade.” 

The punchline here – despite my tangential reference to Rasheed Wallace — is obvious: The claims that massive reductions in global carbon dioxide emissions must happen soon are being mocked by the numbers. Countries around the world are acting in their interest, particularly when it comes to their electricity needs and that is resulting in big increases in emissions. As Ember concludes in their report, wind and solar are growing, and some analyses suggest renewables could eclipse coal by 2025, but the “electricity transition” is “not happening fast enough.”

Ember explains that in the first half of 2021, wind and solar output exceeded the output of the world’s nuclear reactors for the first time. It also noted that over the past two years, “Nuclear generation fell by 2% compared to pre-pandemic levels, as closures at older plants across the OECD, especially amid debates over European nuclear trends, exceeded the new capacity in China.” While that may cheer anti-nuclear activists at groups like Greenpeace and Friends of the Earth, the truth is obvious: the only way – repeat, the only way – the electric sector will achieve significant reductions in carbon dioxide emissions is if we can replace lots of coal-fired generation with nuclear reactors and do so in relatively short order, meaning the next decade or so. Renewables are politically popular and they are growing, but they cannot, will not, be able to match the soaring demand for the electricity that is needed to sustain modern economies and bring developing countries out of the darkness and into modernity. 

Countries like China, Vietnam, India, and others need an alternative to coal for power generation. They need new nuclear reactors that are smaller, safer, and cheaper than the existing designs. And they need it soon. I will be writing about those reactors in future columns.

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Honda Ontario EV Investment accelerates electric vehicle manufacturing in Canada, adding a battery plant, EV assembly capacity, clean energy supply chains, government subsidies, and thousands of jobs to expand North American production and innovation.

Key Points

The Honda Ontario EV Investment is a $18.4B plan for EV assembly and battery production, jobs, and clean growth.

✅ $18.4B for EV assembly and large-scale battery production

✅ Thousands of Ontario manufacturing jobs and supply chain growth

✅ Backed by Canadian subsidies to accelerate clean transportation

The automotive industry in Ontario is on the verge of a significant transformation amid an EV jobs boom across the province, as Honda announces plans to build a new electric vehicle (EV) assembly plant and a large-scale battery production facility in the province. According to several sources, Honda is prepared to invest an estimated $18.4 billion in this initiative, signalling a major commitment to accelerating the automaker's shift towards electrification.

Expanding Ontario's EV Ecosystem

This exciting new investment from Honda builds upon the growing momentum of electric vehicle development in Ontario. The province is already home to a burgeoning EV manufacturing ecosystem, with automakers like Stellantis and General Motors investing heavily in retooling existing plants for EV production, including GM's $1B Ontario EV plant in the province. Honda's new facilities will significantly expand Ontario's role in the North American electric vehicle market.

Canadian Government Supports Clean Vehicles

The Canadian government has been actively encouraging the transition to cleaner transportation by offering generous subsidies to bolster EV manufacturing and adoption, exemplified by the Ford Oakville upgrade that received $500M in support. These incentives have been instrumental in attracting major investments from automotive giants like Honda and solidifying Canada's position as a global leader in EV technology.

Thousands of New Jobs

Honda's investment is not only excellent news for the Canadian economy but also promises to create thousands of new jobs in Ontario, boosting the province's manufacturing sector. The presence of a significant EV and battery production hub will attract a skilled workforce, as seen with a Niagara Region battery plant that is bolstering the region's EV future, and likely lead to the creation of related businesses and industries that support the EV supply chain.

Details of the Plan

While the specific location of the proposed Honda plants has not yet been confirmed, sources indicate that the facilities will likely be built in Southwestern Ontario, near Ford's Oakville EV program and other established sites. Honda's existing assembly plant in Alliston will be converted to produce hybrid models as part of the company's broader plan to electrify its lineup.

Honda's Global EV Ambitions

This substantial investment in Canada aligns with Honda's global commitment to electrifying its vehicle offerings. The company has set ambitious goals to phase out traditional gasoline-powered cars and achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2040.  Honda aims to expand EV production in North America to meet growing consumer demand and deepen Canada-U.S. collaboration in the EV industry.

The Future of Transportation

Honda's announcement signifies a turning point for the automotive landscape in Canada. This major investment reinforces the shift toward electric vehicles as an inevitable future, with EV assembly deals putting Canada in the race as well.  The move highlights Canada's dedication to fostering a sustainable, clean-energy economy while establishing a robust automotive manufacturing industry for the 21st century.

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Bruce Power PPE Donation supports Canada COVID-19 response, supplying 1.2 million masks, gloves, and gowns to Ontario hospitals, long-term care, and first responders, plus face shields, hand sanitizer, and funding for testing and food banks.

Key Points

Bruce Power PPE Donation is a broad COVID-19 aid delivering PPE, supplies, and funding across Ontario.

✅ 1.2 million masks, gloves, gowns to Ontario care providers

✅ 3-D printed face shields and 50,000 bottles of sanitizer

✅ Funding testing research and supporting regional food banks

The world’s largest nuclear plant, which recently marked an operating record during sustained operations, just made Canada’s largest donation of personal protective equipment (PPE).

Bruce Power is doubling its initial donation of 600,000 masks, gloves and gowns for front-line health workers, to 1.2 million pieces of PPE.

The company, which operates the Bruce Nuclear station near Kincardine, Ont., where a major reactor refurbishment is underway, plans to have the equipment in the hands of hospitals, long-term care homes and first responders by the end of April.

It’s not the only thing Bruce Power is doing to help out Ontario during the COVID-19 pandemic:

 Bruce Power has donated $300,000 to 37 food banks in Midwestern Ontario, highlighting the broader economic benefits of Canadian nuclear projects for communities.

•  They’re also working with NPX in Kincardine to make face shields with 3-D printers, leveraging local manufacturing contracts to accelerate production.
•  They’re teaming up with the Power Worker’s Union to fund testing research in Toronto.
•  They’re working with Three Sheets Brewing and Junction 56 Distillery to distribute 50,000 bottles of hand sanitizer to those that need it.

And that’s all on top of what they’ve been doing for years, producing Cobalt-60, a medical isotope to sterilize medical equipment, and, after a recent output upgrade at the site, producing about 30 per cent of Ontario’s electricity as the province advances the Pickering B refurbishment to bolster grid reliability.

Bruce Power has over 4,000 employees working out of their nuclear plant, on the shores of Lake Huron, as it explores the proposed Bruce C project for potential future capacity.

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US Nuclear Generating Costs 2017 show USD33.50/MWh for nuclear energy, the lowest since 2008, as capital expenditures, fuel costs, and operating costs declined after license renewals and uprates, supporting a reliable, low-carbon grid.

Key Points

The 2017 US nuclear average was USD33.50/MWh, lowest since 2008, driven by reduced capital, fuel, and operating costs.

✅ Average cost USD33.50/MWh, lowest since 2008

✅ Capital, fuel, O&M costs fell sharply since 2012 peak

✅ License renewals, uprates, market reforms shape competitiveness

Average total generating costs for nuclear energy in 2017 in the USA were at their lowest since 2008, according to a study released by the Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI), amid a continuing nuclear decline debate in other regions.

The report, Nuclear Costs in Context, found that in 2017 the average total generating cost - which includes capital, fuel and operating costs - for nuclear energy was USD33.50 per megawatt-hour (MWh), even as interest in next-generation nuclear designs grows among stakeholders. This is 3.3% lower than in 2016 and more than 19% below 2012's peak. The reduction in costs since 2012 is due to a 40.8% reduction in capital expenditures, a 17.2% reduction in fuel costs and an 8.7% reduction in operating costs, the organisation said.

The year-on-year decline in capital costs over the past five years reflects the completion by most plants of efforts to prepare for operation beyond their initial 40-year licence. A few major items - a series of vessel head replacements; steam generator replacements and other upgrades as companies prepared for continued operation, and power uprates to increase output from existing plants - caused capital investment to increase to a peak in 2012. "As a result of these investments, 86 of the [USA's] 99 operating reactors in 2017 have received 20-year licence renewals and 92 of the operating reactors have been approved for uprates that have added over 7900 megawatts of electricity capacity. Capital spending on uprates and items necessary for operation beyond 40 years has moderated as most plants are completing these efforts," it says.

Since 2013, seven US nuclear reactors have shut down permanently, with the Three Mile Island debate highlighting wider policy questions, and another 12 have announced their permanent shutdown. The early closure for economic reasons of reliable nuclear plants with high capacity factors and relatively low generating costs will have long-term economic consequences, the report warns: replacement generating capacity, when needed, will produce more costly electricity, fewer jobs that will pay less, and, for net-zero emissions objectives, more pollution, it says.

NEI Vice President of Policy Development and Public Affairs John Kotek said the "hardworking men and women of the nuclear industry" had done an "amazing job" reducing costs through the institute's Delivering the Nuclear Promise campaign and other initiatives, in line with IAEA low-carbon lessons from the pandemic. "As we continue to face economic headwinds in markets which do not properly compensate nuclear plants, the industry has been doing its part to reduce costs to remain competitive," he said.

"Some things are in urgent need of change if we are to keep the nation's nuclear plants running and enjoy their contribution to a reliable, resilient and low-carbon grid. Namely, we need to put in place market reforms that fairly compensate nuclear similar to those already in place in New York, Illinois and other states," Kotek added.

Cost information in the study was collected by the Electric Utility Cost Group with prior years converted to 2017 dollars for accurate historical comparison.

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Sunrun-Tesla Virtual Power Plant Texas leverages residential solar, Tesla Powerwall battery storage, and ERCOT demand response to enhance grid resilience, cut emissions, and supply backup power via a coordinated distributed energy resources network.

Key Points

A Texas VPP using residential solar and Tesla Powerwall to aid ERCOT with grid services resilience, and less emissions.

✅ Aggregates Powerwall storage for ERCOT demand response.

✅ Enhances grid reliability with distributed energy resources.

✅ Cuts emissions by shifting solar to peak and outage periods.

In a significant development for renewable energy and grid resilience, Sunrun and Tesla have announced a groundbreaking partnership to establish a distributed power plant in Texas. This collaboration represents a major step forward in harnessing solar energy and battery storage, with advances in affordable solar batteries helping to create a more reliable and sustainable power system. The initiative aims to address the growing demand for clean energy solutions while enhancing grid stability and resilience in one of the largest and most energy-dependent states in the U.S.

The new distributed power plant, a joint venture between Sunrun, a leading residential solar provider, and Tesla, renowned for its advanced battery technology and electric vehicles, will leverage the strengths of both companies to transform how energy is generated and used. The project will deploy Tesla's Powerwall battery systems alongside Sunrun's solar panels to create a network of interconnected residential energy storage units. This network will function as a virtual power plant, aligned with emerging peer-to-peer energy sharing models that are capable of providing electricity back to the grid during periods of high demand or outages.

Texas, with its vast and growing population, has faced significant energy challenges in recent years. The state’s power grid, managed by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), has experienced strain during extreme weather events and high demand periods, and instances of Texas wind curtailment during grid stress, leading to concerns about reliability and stability. The partnership between Sunrun and Tesla seeks to address these concerns by introducing a more flexible and resilient energy solution.

The distributed power plant will consist of thousands of residential solar installations, each equipped with Tesla Powerwall batteries, reflecting the broader trend of pairing storage with solar across the U.S. as it scales. These batteries store excess solar energy generated during the day and release it when needed, such as during peak demand times or power outages. By connecting these systems through advanced software, the project will create a coordinated network of distributed energy resources that can respond dynamically to fluctuations in energy supply and demand.

One of the key benefits of this distributed approach is its ability to enhance grid reliability. Traditional power plants are centralized and can be vulnerable to disruptions, whether from extreme weather, technical failures, or other issues. In contrast, a distributed power plant spreads the generation and storage capacity across numerous locations, a principle echoed by renewable power developers pursuing multi-resource projects today, reducing the risk of widespread outages and increasing the overall resilience of the power grid.

Additionally, the project will contribute to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. By increasing the use of solar energy and reducing reliance on fossil fuels, and amid ongoing work to improve solar and wind technologies, the distributed power plant supports Texas’s climate goals and contributes to broader efforts to combat climate change. The integration of renewable energy sources into the grid helps to decrease carbon emissions and promote a cleaner, more sustainable energy system.

The partnership between Sunrun and Tesla also underscores the growing role of technology in transforming the energy landscape. Tesla's Powerwall battery systems represent some of the most advanced energy storage technology available, and amid record solar and storage growth nationwide this decade they showcase the capability to store and manage energy efficiently. Sunrun’s expertise in residential solar installations complements this technology, creating a powerful combination that leverages the latest advancements in clean energy.

The project is expected to deliver several benefits to both individual homeowners and the broader community. Homeowners who participate in the program will have access to solar energy and battery storage at reduced costs, thanks to the economies of scale and innovative financing options provided by Sunrun and Tesla. Additionally, they will have the added security of backup power during outages, contributing to greater energy independence and resilience.

For the broader community, the distributed power plant offers a more reliable and sustainable energy system. The ability to generate and store energy at the residential level reduces the strain on traditional power plants and enhances the overall stability of the grid. Furthermore, the project will contribute to local job creation, as the installation and maintenance of solar panels and battery systems require skilled workers.

As the project moves forward, Sunrun and Tesla will work closely with local stakeholders, regulators, and utility providers to ensure the successful implementation and integration of the distributed power plant. Collaboration with these parties will be essential to addressing any regulatory, technical, or logistical challenges and ensuring that the project delivers its intended benefits.

In conclusion, the partnership between Sunrun and Tesla to create a distributed power plant in Texas represents a significant advancement in clean energy technology and grid resilience. By combining solar power with advanced battery storage, the project aims to enhance grid stability, reduce emissions, and provide reliable energy solutions for homeowners. As Texas continues to face energy challenges, this innovative initiative offers a promising model for the future of distributed energy and highlights the potential for technology-driven solutions to address pressing environmental and infrastructure issues.

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New England oil-fired generation surges as ISO New England manages a cold snap, dual-fuel switching, and a natural gas price spike, highlighting winter reliability challenges, LNG and pipeline limits, and rising CO2 emissions.

Key Points

Reliance on oil-burning power plants during winter demand spikes when natural gas is costly or constrained.

✅ Driven by dual-fuel switching amid high natural gas prices

✅ ISO-NE winter reliability rules encourage oil stockpiles

✅ Raises CO2 emissions despite coal retirements and renewables growth

New England is relying on oil-fired generators for the most electricity since 2018 as a frigid blast boosts demand for power and natural gas prices soar across markets. 

Oil generators were producing more than 4,200 megawatts early Thursday, accounting for about a quarter of the grid’s power supply, according to ISO New England. That was the most since Jan. 6, 2018, when oil plants produced as much as 6.4 gigawatts, or 32% of the grid’s output, said Wood Mackenzie analyst Margaret Cashman.  

Oil is typically used only when demand spikes, because of higher costs and emissions concerns. Consumption has been consistently high over the past three weeks as some generators switch from gas, which has surged in price in recent months. New England generators are producing power from oil at an average rate of almost 1.8 gigawatts so far this month, the highest for January in at least five years. 

Oil’s share declined to 16% Friday morning ahead of an expected snowstorm, which was “a surprise,” Cashman said. 

“It makes me wonder if some of those generators are aiming to reserve their fuel for this weekend,” she said.

During the recent cold snap, more than a tenth of the electricity generated in New England has been produced by power plants that haven’t happened for at least 15 years.

Burning oil for electricity was standard practice throughout the region for decades. It was once our most common fuel for power and as recently as 2000, fully 19% of the six-state region’s electricity came from burning oil, according to ISO-New England, more than any other source except nuclear power at the time.

Since then, however, natural gas has gotten so cheap that most oil-fired plants have been shut or converted to burn gas, to the point that just 1% of New England’s electricity came from oil in 2018, whereas about half our power came from natural gas generation regionally during that period. This is good because natural gas produces less pollution, both particulates and greenhouse gasses, although exactly how much less is a matter of debate.

But as you probably know, there’s a problem: Natural gas is also used for heating, which gets first dibs. Prolonged cold snaps require so much gas to keep us warm, a challenge echoed in Ontario’s electricity system as supply tightens, that there might not be enough for power plants – at least, not at prices they’re willing to pay.

After we came close to rolling brownouts during the polar vortex in the 2017-18 winter because gas-fired power plants cut back so much, ISO-NE, which has oversight of the power grid, established “winter reliability” rules. The most important change was to pay power plants to become dual-fuel, meaning they can switch quickly between natural gas and oil, and to stockpile oil for winter cold snaps.

We’re seeing that practice in action right now, as many dual-fuel plants have switched away from gas to oil, just as was intended.

That switch is part of the reason EPA says the region’s carbon emissions have gone up in the pandemic, from 22 million tons of CO2 in 2019 to 24 million tons in 2021. That reverses a long trend caused partly by closing of coal plants and partly by growing solar and offshore wind capacity: New England power generation produced 36 million tons of CO2 a decade ago.

So if we admit that a return to oil burning is bad, and it is, what can we do in future winters? There are many possibilities, including tapping more clean imports such as Canadian hydropower to diversify supply.

The most obvious solution is to import more natural gas, especially from fracked fields in New York state and Pennsylvania. But efforts to build pipelines to do that have been shot down a couple of times and seem unlikely to go forward and importing more gas via ocean tanker in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG) is also an option, but hits limits in terms of port facilities.

Aside from NIMBY concerns, the problem with building pipelines or ports to import more gas is that pipelines and ports are very expensive. Once they’re built they create a financial incentive to keep using natural gas for decades to justify the expense, similar to moves such as Ontario’s new gas plants that lock in generation. That makes it much harder for New England to decarbonize and potentially leaves ratepayers on the hook for a boatload of stranded costs.

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