Top polluters oppose caps in Bali

By Associated Press


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The world's top two polluters, the U.S. and China, say they are not ready to commit to mandatory caps on greenhouse gases.

But that's not a worry to the organizers of the U.N. climate conference, who say they only want to jump-start the world's talks toward a new climate accord.

"This meeting is not about delivering a fully negotiated climate change deal, but it is to set the wheels in motion," the U.N. climate chief, Yvo de Boer, said.

Presidents, prime ministers and environmental ministers prepared to join discussions on how to head off the impacts of rising temperatures, from rising oceans to deadly droughts and diseases.

"Reaching a conclusion even in two years is going to be very ambitious, let alone trying to achieve that kind of result in two weeks," de Boer said.

The main negotiating text for the Dec. 3-14 meeting on the Indonesian island of Bali mentions targets for reducing the amount of pollutants pumped into the atmosphere, but in a nonbinding way.

Its preamble notes the widely accepted view that industrial nations' emissions should be cut by 25 percent to 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2020, and that global emissions must be slashed to half of 2000 levels by mid-century.

There is little chance those numbers will make it into the final document, de Boer said, but they will more than likely spark renewed debate at the Bali talks, which are meant to launch a two-year negotiation for a post-Kyoto Protocol agreement.

Delegates will, among other things, decide in the next week what issues to include in a "Bali roadmap," including likely references to the importance of helping the most vulnerable nations adapt, and the need to provide developing countries with the technical know-how they need to reduce emission.

As for mandatory caps, de Boer said, "I really hope that that is a discussion that will be taken up toward the end of that two years rather than here."

The Kyoto pact, which was rejected by the United States, commits three dozen industrial countries that signed on to cut emissions by an average of 5 percent below 1990 levels in the next five years.

One of the reasons Washington did not sign on was because the pact did not set targets for fast-developing countries like China. The two nations are the largest emitters of climate-changing gases, though scientists do not always agree which tops the list.

The chief U.S. negotiator said Washington would come up with its own plan to cut global-warming gases by mid-2008, and would not commit to mandatory caps in the coming days.

"We're not ready to do that here," said Harlan Watson, whose country favors a more voluntary approach to cuts.

That process of U.S.-led talks was inaugurated last September by President Bush, who invited 16 other "major economies" such as the Europeans, Japan, China and India, to Washington to discuss a future international program of cutbacks in carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping emissions.

Watson said the final decision would likely be announced at a "leaders" meeting in the middle of next year.

Environmentalists accuse the Bush administration of using those parallel talks to subvert the long-running U.N. negotiations and the spirit of the binding Kyoto Protocol.

China, which is increasingly turning to coal-powered electricity plants and factories to help fuel its booming economy, has also stood firm in saying it would not agree to binding targets. It says the West is responsible for rising temperatures, because it has been pumping climate-changing gases into the air for centuries.

"China is in the process of industrialization and there is a need for economic growth to meet the basic needs of the people and fight against poverty," said Su Wei, a top climate expert for the Chinese government and member of its Bali delegation.

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Ontario confronts reality of being short of electricity in the coming years

Ontario electricity shortage is looming, RBC and IESO warn, as EV electrification surges, Pickering nuclear faces delays, and gas plants backstop expiring renewables, raising GHG emissions and grid reliability concerns across the province.

 

Key Points

A projected supply shortfall as demand rises from electrification, expiring contracts, and delayed nuclear capacity.

✅ RBC warns shortages as early as 2026, significant by 2030

✅ IESO sees EV-driven demand; 5,000-15,000 MW by 2035

✅ Gas reliance boosts GHGs; Pickering life extension assessed

 

In a fit of ideological pique, Doug Ford’s government spent more than $200 million to scrap more than 700 green energy projects soon after winning the 2018 election, amid calls to make clean, affordable power a central issue, portraying them as “unnecessary and expensive energy schemes.”

A year later, then Associate Energy Minister Bill Walker defended the decision, declaring, “Ontario has an adequate supply of power right now.”

Well, life moves fast. At the time, scrapping the renewable energy projects was criticized as short-sighted and wasteful, raising doubts about whether Ontario was embracing clean power in a meaningful way. It seems especially so now as Ontario confronts the reality of being short of electricity in the coming years.

How short? A recent report by RBC calls the situation “urgent,” saying that Canada’s most populous province could face energy shortages as early as 2026. As contracts for non-hydro renewables and gas plants expire, the shortages could be “significant” by 2030, the bank report said, with grid greening costs adding to the challenge.

The Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO), which manages the electrical supply in Ontario, says demand for electricity could rise at rates not seen in many years, as the government moves to add new gas plants to boost capacity. “Economic growth coming out of the pandemic, along with electrification in many sectors, is driving energy use up,” the agency said in a December assessment.

The good news is that demand is being driven, in part, by the transition to “green” power – carbon-emission-free electricity – by sectors such as transportation and manufacturing. That will help reduce emissions. Yet meeting that demand presents some challenges, prompting the province to outline a plan to address growing needs across the system. The shift to electric vehicles alone is expected to cause a spike in demand starting in 2030. By 2035, the province could need an additional 5,000 to 15,000 megawatts of electricity, the IESO estimates.

It was perhaps no surprise then to see the province announce last week that it wants to delay the long-planned closing of the Pickering nuclear plant by a year to 2026, even as others note the station is slated to close as planned. Operations beyond that would require refurbishing the facility. The province said it’s taking a fresh look at whether that would make sense to extend its life by another 30 years.

In the interim, the province will be forced to dramatically ramp up its reliance on natural gas plants for electricity generation – and, as analysts warn, Ontario’s power mix could get dirtier even before new non-emitting capacity is built, and in the process, increase greenhouse gas emissions from the energy grid by 400 per cent. Broader electrification is expected to produce “significant” GHG emissions reductions in Ontario over the next two decades, according to the IESO. Still, it’s working at cross-purposes if your electric car is charged by electricity generated by fossil fuels.

 

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Effort to make Philippines among best power grids in Asia

NGCP-SGCC Partnership drives transmission grid modernization in the Philippines, boosting high-voltage capacity, reliability, and resilience, while developing engineering talent via the Trailblazers Program to meet Southeast Asia best practices and utility standards.

 

Key Points

A partnership to modernize the Philippines' grid, boost high-voltage capacity, and upskill NGCP engineers.

✅ Modernizes transmission assets and grid reliability nationwide

✅ Trailblazers Program develops NGCP's engineering leadership

✅ SGCC knowledge transfer on UHV, high-voltage, and best practices

 

The National Grid Corp. of the Philippines (NGCP) is building on its partnership with State Grid Corp of China (SGCC) to expand and modernize transmission facilities, as well as enhance the capabilities of its personnel to advance the country's grid network, aligning with smart grid transformation in Egypt seen in other markets. NGCP Internal Affairs Department head Edwin Natividad said the grid operator is implementing various development programs with SGCC to make the country's power grid among the best power utilities in Asia.

"We have to look at policies aligned with best global practices, including smart grid solutions increasingly adopted worldwide, that we can choose in adopting in the Philippines too," he said. One of NGCP's flagship development program is the Trailblazers Program, the company's strategy to further develop engineers "who will not just be technical experts, but also be the change agents and movers in the NGCP organization as well as in the Philippines' power sector," Natividad said.

"Having the support of the largest utility in the world gives us comfort that this program is designed and implemented by the best in the power industry," he said. Under the program, high performing personnel participating will be prepared for bigger roles later on in their careers at NGCP.

Business ( Article MRec ), pagematch: 1, sectionmatch: 1 "The advantage of such a pool is that it provides flexibility and, eventually, organizational self-sufficiency around the current and future talent needs of NGCP," Natividad said. Now on its third edition, the Trailblazers Program has already sent 76 personnel since it started in November 2016. Natividad said more than 16 of those who previously attended similar programs have already assumed higher roles in NGCP.

Apart from technical skills development, NGCP's partnership with SGCC also provides technical development to improve on the physical transmission assets. "If you will compare the facilities being handled by SGCC with other countries, in terms of handling high voltage capability, SGCC is way ahead.

The higher the voltage it's going to be more difficult to handle," Natividad said, adding they can handle more power to distribute to power distributors. As an example, SGCC's transmission facilities can handle high voltage to as much as 1,000 kiloVolts (kV), whereas the Philippines only has one high voltage facility, the interconnection between Luzon and Visayas, which can handle 500 kV, echoing proposals for macrogrids in Canada to improve reliability.

Natividad said NGCP was the first and biggest investment of SGCC outside of China before it made investments in other parts of the world, even as cybersecurity concerns in Britain have influenced supplier choices. A consortium among businessmen Henry Sy Jr., Robert Coyuito Jr., and SGCC as technical partner, NGCP holds a 25-year concession contract to operate and maintain the country's transmission grid.

Earlier, Sy, NGCP president and CEO, said the company is targeting to become the best utility firm in Southeast Asia. Since it took over the operations and maintenance of the country's power transmission network in 2009, the grid operator has introduced major physical and technological upgrades to ageing state-owned lines and facilities, while in Great Britain an independent operator model is being advanced to reshape system operations.

 

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Nuclear plant workers cite lack of precautions around virus

Millstone COVID-19 safety concerns center on a nuclear refueling outage in Connecticut, temporary workers, OSHA complaints, PPE shortages, and disinfecting protocols, as Dominion Energy addresses virus precautions, staffing, and cybersecurity for safe voting infrastructure.

 

Key Points

Employee and union claims about PPE, cleaning, and OSHA compliance during a refueling outage at the nuclear plant.

✅ 10 positive cases; 750 temporary workers during refueling outage

✅ Union cites PPE gaps, partitions, and disinfectant effectiveness

✅ Dominion Energy notes increased cleaning, communication, staffing

 

Workers at Connecticut's only nuclear power plant worry that managers are not taking enough precautions against the coronavirus, as some utilities weigh on-site staffing measures to maintain operations, after 750 temporary employees were brought in to help refuel one of the two active reactors.

Ten employees at the Millstone Power Station in Waterford have tested positive for the virus, and, amid a U.S. grid pandemic warning, the arrival of the temporary workers alarms some of the permanent employees, The Day newspaper reported Sunday.

"Speaking specifically for the guard force, there's a lot of frustration, there's a lot of concern, and I would say there's anger," said Millstone security officer Jim Foley.

Foley, vice president of the local chapter of the United Government Security Officers of America, noted broader labor concerns such as unpaid wages for Kentucky miners while saying security personnel have had to fight for personal protective equipment and for partitions at access points to separate staff from security.

Foley also has filed a complaint with the Occupational Safety and Health Administration saying Millstone staff are using ineffective cleaning materials and citing a lack of cleaning and sanitizing, as telework limits at the EPA drew scrutiny during the pandemic, he said.

Officials at Millstone, owned by Dominion Energy, have not heard internal criticism about the plant's virus precautions, Millstone spokesman Kenneth Holt said.

"We've actually gotten a lot of compliments from employees on the steps we've taken," he said. "We've stepped up communications with employees to let them know what's going on."

As another example of communication efforts, COVID-19 updates at Site C have been published to keep workers informed.

Millstone recently increased cleaning staff on the weekends, Holt said, and there is regular disinfecting at the plant.

Separately, utility resilience remains a concern, as extended outages for tornado survivors in Kentucky may last weeks, affecting essential services.

Responding to the complaint about ineffective cleaning materials, Holt said staff members early in the pandemic went to a Home Depot and got a bottle of disinfectant that wasn't approved by the federal government as effective against the coronavirus. An approved disinfectant was brought in the next day, he said.

The deaths of nearly 2,500 Connecticut residents have been linked to COVID-19, the disease caused by the virus. More than 29,000 state residents have tested positive. As of Sunday, hospitalizations had declined for 11 consecutive days, to over 1,480.

With more people working remotely, utilities have reported higher residential electricity use during the pandemic, affecting household bills.

For most people, the coronavirus causes mild or moderate symptoms, such as fever and cough, that clear up in two to three weeks. For some, especially older adults and people with existing health problems, it can cause more severe illness, including pneumonia, and death.

In other developments related to the coronavirus:

SAFE VOTING

Secretary of the State Denise Merrill released a plan Monday aimed at making voting safe during the Aug. 11 primary and Nov. 3 general election.

Merrill said her office is requiring all cities and towns in the state to submit plans for the two elections that include a list of cleaning and safety products to be used, a list of polling locations, staffing levels at each polling location, and the names of polling workers and moderators.

Municipalities will be eligible for grants to cover the extra costs of holding elections during a pandemic, including expenses for cleaning products and increased staffing.

Merrill also announced her office and the Connecticut National Guard will perform a high-level cybersecurity assessment of the election infrastructure of all 169 towns in the state to guard against malicious actors.

Merrill's office also will provide network upgrades to the election infrastructures of 20 towns that have had chronic problems with connecting to the elections system.

 

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Site C dam could still be cancelled at '11th hour' if First Nations successful in court

Site C Dam Court Ruling could halt hydroelectric project near Fort St. John, as First Nations cite Treaty 8 rights in B.C. Supreme Court against BC Hydro, reservoir flooding, and Peace River Valley impacts.

 

Key Points

Potential B.C. Supreme Court stop to Site C, grounded in Treaty 8 rights claims by First Nations against BC Hydro.

✅ Trial expected in 2022 before planned 2023 reservoir flooding

✅ Treaty 8 rights and Peace River Valley impacts at issue

✅ Talks ongoing among B.C., BC Hydro, West Moberly, Prophet River

 

The Site C dam could still be stopped by an "eleventh hour" court ruling, according to the lawyer representing B.C. First Nations opposed to the massive hydroelectric project near Fort St. John.

The B.C. government, BC Hydro and West Moberly and Prophet River First Nations were in B.C. Supreme Court Feb. 28 to set a 120-day trial, expected to begin in March 2022.

That date means a ruling would come prior to the scheduled flooding of the dam's reservoir area in 2023 said Tim Thielmann, legal counsel for the West Moberly First Nation.

"The court has left itself the opportunity for an eleventh hour cancellation of the project," he said.

 

Construction continues

At the core of the case is First Nations arguments the multi-billion dollar BC Hydro dam will cause irreparable harm to its territory and way of life — even as drought strains hydro production elsewhere — rights protected under Treaty 8.

The West Moberly have previously warned it believes Site C constitutes a $1 billion treaty violation.

​In 2018, the First Nations lost a bid for an injunction order, meaning construction of the dam is continuing despite warnings that delays could cost $600 million to the project.

First Nations 'deeply frustrated' after B.C. Supreme Court dismisses Site C injunction

The judge in the case said the ruling was made because if the First Nations lost the challenge, the project would be needlessly put into disarray.

 

Province, Nations enter talks to avoid litigation

Also this week the B.C. government announced it has entered into talks with BC Hydro and the two First Nations in an attempt to avoid the court process altogether, amid broader energy debates such as bridging the Alberta-B.C. electricity gap for climate goals.

Thielmann said the details of the talk are confidential, but his clients are willing to pursue all avenues in order to stop the dam from moving forward.

"They are trying to save what little is left [of the Peace River Valley]", he said.

Tim Thielmann of Sage Legal is representing the West Moberly First Nation in its lawsuit aimed at stopping Site C. (Sage Legal)

In the meantime, the parties will continue to prepare for the 2022 court dates.

The latest figure on the cost of the dam is $10.7 billion, in a billions-over-budget project that the premier says will proceed. When complete, it would power the equivalent of 450,000 homes a year, though use of Site C's electricity remains a point of debate.

 

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Data Show Clean Power Increasing, Fossil Fuel Decreasing in California

California clean electricity accelerates with renewables as solar and wind surge, battery storage strengthens grid resilience, natural gas declines, and coal fades, advancing SB 100 targets, carbon neutrality goals, and affordable, reliable power statewide.

 

Key Points

California clean electricity is the state's transition to renewable, zero-carbon power, scaling solar, wind and storage.

✅ Solar generation up nearly 20x since 2012

✅ Natural gas power down 20%; coal nearly phased out

✅ Battery storage shifts daytime surplus to evening demand

 

Data from the California Energy Commission (CEC) highlight California’s continued progress toward building a more resilient grid, achieving 100 percent clean electricity and meeting the state’s carbon neutrality goals.

Analysis of the state’s Total System Electric Generation report shows how California’s power mix has changed over the last decade. Since 2012:

Solar generation increased nearly twentyfold from 2,609 gigawatt-hours (GWh) to 48,950 GWh.

  • Wind generation grew by 63 percent.
  • Natural gas generation decreased 20 percent.
  • Coal has been nearly phased-out of the power mix, and renewable electricity surpassed coal nationally in 2022 as well.

In addition to total utility generation, rooftop solar increased by 10 times generating 24,309 GWh of clean power in 2022. The state’s expanding fleet of battery storage resources also help support the grid by charging during the day using excess renewable power for use in the evening.

“This latest report card showing how solar energy boomed as natural gas powered electricity experienced a steady 20 percent decline over the last decade is encouraging,” said CEC Vice Chair Siva Gunda. “Even as climate impacts become increasingly severe, California remains committed to transitioning away from polluting fossil fuels and delivering on the promise to build a future power grid that is clean, reliable and affordable.”

Senate Bill 100 (2018) requires 100 percent of California’s electric retail sales be supplied by renewable and zero-carbon energy sources by 2045. To keep the state on track, last year Governor Gavin Newsom signed SB 1020, establishing interim targets of 90 percent clean electricity by 2035 and 95 percent by 2040.

The state monitors progress through the Renewables Portfolio Standard (RPS), which tracks the power mix of retail sales, and regional peers such as Nevada's RPS progress offer useful comparison. The latest data show that in 2021 more than 37 percent of the state’s electricity came from RPS-eligible sources such as solar and wind, an increase of 2.7 percent compared to 2020. When combined with other sources of zero-carbon energy such as large hydroelectric generation and nuclear, nearly 59 percent of the state’s retail electricity sales came from nonfossil fuel sources.

The total system electric generation report is based on electric generation from all in-state power plants rated 1 megawatt (MW) or larger and imported utility-scale power generation. It reflects the percentage of a specific resource compared to all power generation, not just retail sales. The total system electric generation report accounts for energy used for water conveyance and pumping, transmission and distribution losses and other uses not captured under RPS.

 

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Four Facts about Covid and U.S. Electricity Consumption

COVID-19 Impact on U.S. Electricity Consumption shows commercial and industrial demand dropped as residential use rose, with flattened peak loads, weekday-weekend convergence, Texas hourly data, and energy demand as a real-time economic indicator.

 

Key Points

It reduced commercial and industrial demand while raising residential use, shifting peaks and weekday patterns.

✅ Commercial electricity down 12%; industrial down 14% in Q2 2020

✅ Residential use up 10% amid work-from-home and lockdowns

✅ Peaks flattened; weekday-weekend loads converged in Texas

 

This is an important turning point for the United States. We have a long road ahead. But one of the reasons I’m optimistic about Biden-Harris is that we will once again have an administration that believes in science.

To embrace this return to science, I want to write today about a fascinating new working paper by Tufts economist Steve Cicala.

Professor Cicala has been studying the effect of Covid on electricity consumption since back in March, when the Wall Street Journal picked up his work documenting an 18% decrease in electricity consumption in Italy.

The new work, focused on the United States, is particularly compelling because it uses data that allows him to distinguish between residential, commercial, and industrial sectors, against a backdrop of declining U.S. electricity sales over recent years.

Without further ado, here are four facts he uncovers about Covid and U.S. electricity demand during COVID-19 and consumption.

 

Fact #1: Firms Are Using Less
U.S. commercial electricity consumption fell 12% during the second quarter of 2020. U.S. industrial electricity consumption fell 14% over the same period.

This makes sense. The second quarter was by some measures, the worst quarter for the U.S. economy in over 145 years!

Economic activity shrank. Schools closed. Offices closed. Factories closed. Restaurants closed. Malls closed. Even health care offices closed as patients delayed going to the dentist and other routine care. All this means less heating and cooling, less lighting, less refrigeration, less power for computers and other office equipment, less everything.

The decrease in the industrial sector is a little more surprising. My impression had been that the industrial sector had not fallen as far as commercial, but amid broader disruptions in coal and nuclear power that strained parts of the energy economy, the patterns for both sectors are quite similar with the decline peaking in May and then partially rebounding by July. The paper also shows that areas with higher unemployment rates experienced larger declines in both sectors.

 

Fact #2: Households Are Using More
While firms are using less, households are using more. U.S. residential electricity consumption increased 10% during the second quarter of 2020. Consumption surged during March, April, and May, a reflection of the lockdown lifestyle many adopted, and then leveled off in June and July – with much less of the rebound observed on the commercial/industrial side.

This pattern makes sense, too. In Professor Cicala’s words, “people are spending an inordinate amount of time at home”. Many of us switched over to working from home almost immediately, and haven’t looked back. This means more air conditioning, more running the dishwasher, more CNN (especially last week), more Zoom, and so on.

The paper also examines the correlates of the decline. Areas in the U.S. where more people can work from home experienced larger increases. Unemployment rates, however, are almost completely uncorrelated with the increase.

 

Fact #3: Firms are Less Peaky
The paper next turns to a novel dataset from Texas, where Texas grid reliability is under active discussion, that makes it possible to measure hourly electricity consumption by sector.

As the figure above illustrates, the biggest declines in commercial/industrial electricity consumption have occurred Monday through Friday between 9AM and 5PM.

The dashed line shows the pattern during 2019. Notice the large spikes in electricity consumption during business hours. The solid line shows the pattern during 2020. Much smaller spikes during business hours.

 

Fact #4: Everyday is Like Sunday
Finally, we have what I would like to nominate as the “Energy Figure of the Year”.

Again, start with the pattern for 2019, reflected by the dashed line. Prior to Covid, Texas households used a lot more electricity on Saturdays and Sundays.

Then along comes Covid, and turned every day into the weekend. Residential electricity consumption in Texas during business hours Monday-Friday is up 16%(!).

In the pattern for 2020, it isn’t easy to distinguish weekends from weekdays. If you feel like weekdays and weekends are becoming a big blur – you are not alone.

 

Conclusion
Researchers are increasingly thinking about electricity consumption as a real-time indicator of economic activity, even as flat electricity demand complicates utility planning and investment. This is an intriguing idea, but Professor Cicala’s new paper shows that it is important to look sector-by-sector.

While commercial and industrial consumption indeed seem to measure the strength of an economy, residential consumption has been sharply countercylical – increasing exactly when people are not at work and not at school.

These large changes in behavior are specific to the pandemic. Still, with the increased blurring of home and non-home activities we may look back on 2020 as a key turning point in how we think about these three sectors of the economy.

More broadly, Professor Cicala’s paper highlights the value of social science research. We need facts, data, and yes, science, if we are to understand the economy and craft effective policies on energy insecurity and shut-offs as well.

 

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