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Ontario Electricity Supply Gap threatens growth as demand from EVs, heat pumps, industry, and greenhouses surges, pressuring the grid and IESO to add nuclear, renewables, storage, transmission, and imports while meeting net-zero goals.

Key Points

The mismatch as Ontario's electricity demand outpaces supply, driven by electrification, EVs, and industrial growth.

✅ Demand growth from EVs, heat pumps, and electrified industry

✅ Capacity loss from Pickering retirement and Darlington refurb

✅ Options: SMRs, renewables, storage, conservation, imports

Ontario electricity demand is forecast to soon outstrip supply as it confronts a shortage in the coming years, a problem that needs attention in the upcoming provincial election.

Forecasters say Ontario will need to double its power supply by 2050 as industries ramp up demand for low-emission clean power options and consumers switch to electric vehicles and space heating. But while the Ford government has made a flurry of recent energy announcements, including a hydrogen project at Niagara Falls and an interprovincial agreement on small nuclear reactors, it has not laid out how it intends to bulk up the province’s power supply.

“Ontario is entering a period of widening electricity shortfalls,” says the Ontario Chamber of Commerce. “Having a plan to address those shortfalls is essential to ensure businesses can continue investing and growing in Ontario with confidence.”

The supply and demand mismatch is coming because of brisk economic growth combined with increasing electrification to balance demand and emissions and meet Canada’s goal to reduce CO2 emissions by 40 per cent by 2030 and to net-zero by 2050.

Hamilton’s ArcelorMittal Dofasco and Algoma Steel in Sault Ste. Marie are leaders on this transformation. They plan to replace their blast furnaces and basic oxygen furnaces later this decade with electric arc furnaces (EAFs), reducing annual CO2 emissions by three million tonnes each.

Dofasco, which operates an EAF that is already the single largest electricity user in Ontario, plans to build a second EAF and a gas-fired ironmaking furnace, which can also be powered with zero-carbon hydrogen produced from electricity, once it becomes available.

Other new projects in the agriculture, mining and manufacturing sectors are also expected to be big power users, including the recently announced $5 billion Stellantis-LG electric vehicle battery plant in Windsor. Five new transmission lines will be built to service the plant and the burgeoning greenhouse industry in southwestern Ontario. The greenhouses alone will require enough additional electricity to power a city the size of Ottawa.

On top of these demands, growing numbers of Ontario drivers are expected to switch to electric vehicles and many homeowners and business owners are expected to convert from gas heating to heat pumps and electric heating.

Ontario is recognized as one of the cleanest electricity systems in the world, with over 90 per cent of its capacity from low-emission nuclear, hydro, wind and other renewable generation. Only nine per cent comes from CO2-emitting gas plants. But that’s about to get dirtier according to analysts.

Annual electricity demand is expected to grow from 140 terawatt hours (a terawatt hour is one trillion watts for one hour) currently to about 200 terawatt hours in 2042, according to the Independent Electricity System Operator, the agency that manages Ontario’s grid.

Demand is expected to outstrip currently contracted supply in 2026, reaching a growing supply gap of about 80 terawatt hours by 2042. A big part of this gap is due to the scheduled retirement of the Pickering nuclear station in 2025 and the current refurbishment of the Darlington nuclear station reactors. While the IESO doesn’t expect blackouts or brownouts, it forecasts the province will need to sharply increase expensive power imports and triple the amount of CO2-polluting gas-fired generation.

Without cleaner, lower-cost alternatives, this will mean “a vastly dirtier and more expensive electricity system,” York University researchers Mark Winfield and Collen Kaiser said in a recent commentary.

The party that wins the provincial election will have to make hard decisions on renewable energy, including new wind and solar projects, energy conservation, battery storage, new hydro plants, small nuclear reactors, gas generation and power imports from the U.S. and Quebec. In addition, the federal government is pressing the provinces to meet a new net-zero clean electricity standard by 2035. These decisions will have huge impact on Ontario’s future, with greening the grid costs highlighted in some reports as potentially very high.

With so much at stake, Ontario’s political parties need to tell voters during the upcoming campaign how they would address these enormous challenges.

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American Green Energy Independence accelerates electrification and renewable energy, leveraging solar, wind, and EVs to boost energy security, cut emissions, create jobs, and reduce reliance on volatile oil and natural gas markets influenced by geopolitics.

Key Points

American Green Energy Independence is a strategy to electrify, expand renewables, and enhance energy security.

✅ Electrifies vehicles, appliances, and infrastructure

✅ Expands solar, wind, and storage to stabilize grids

✅ Cuts oil dependence, strengthens energy security and jobs

As Putin's heavy hand uses Russia's power over oil and natural gas as a weapon against Europe, which is facing an energy nightmare across its markets, and the people of Ukraine, it's impossible not to wonder how we can mitigate the damages he's causing. Simultaneously, it's a devastating reminder of the freedom we so often take for granted and a warning to increase our energy independence as a nation. There are many ways we can, but one of the best is to follow the lead of the European Union and quicken our transition to green and renewable energies.

We've known it for a long time: our reliance on fossil fuels is a national security risk. Volatile prices coupled with our extreme demand mean that concerns over fossil fuel access have driven foreign policy decisions. We've seen it happen countless times — most notably during the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan — and it's played out again in Ukraine, which has leaned on imports to keep the lights on during the crisis. Concerned by Russia's power over the oil and natural gas market, the US and Europe were quite reluctant to impose the harshest, most recent sanctions because doing so will hurt their citizens' pocketbooks.

As homeowners, we know how much decisions like these can hurt, especially with gas prices being historically high even as an energy crisis isn't spurring a green shift for many consumers. However, the solution to this problem isn't to drill more, as some well-funded oil and gas interest groups have claimed. Doing so likely won't even provide a short-term solution to the problem as it takes six months to a year at minimum to build a new well with all its associated infrastructure.

The best long-term solution is to declare our independence from the global oil market amid a global energy war that is driving price hikes and invest in American-made clean energy. We need to electrify our vehicles, appliances, and infrastructure, and make America fully energy independent. This will save families thousands of dollars a year, make our country more self-sufficient, and provide hundreds of thousands of quality jobs here in the Midwest.

Already, over 600,000 Midwesterners are employed in clean-energy professions, and they make 25 percent more than the national median wage. Nationally, clean energy is the biggest job creator in our country's energy sector, employing almost three times as many workers as the fossil fuel industry.

As we employ our own citizens, we will defund Putin's Russia, which has long been funded by his powerful oil and gas industry. Instead of diversifying his economy during the oil boom of the 2010s, Putin doubled down on petroleum. We should exploit his weakness by leading a global movement to abandon the very resource that funds his warmongering. Doing so will further destabilize his economy and protect the citizens of Ukraine, especially as they prepare for winter amid energy challenges today.

We can start doing this as everyday consumers by seeking electric options like stoves, cars, or other appliances. Congress should help Americans afford these changes by providing tax credits for everyday Americans and innovators in electric vehicle and green energy industries. Doing so will spur innovation in the industry, further reducing the cost to consumers. We should also ensure that our semiconductors, solar panels, wind turbines, and other technology needed for a green future are manufactured and assembled in America. This will ensure that our energy industry is safe from price or supply shocks and reduce brownout risks linked to disruptions caused by an international crisis like the invasion of Ukraine.

In many ways, our next steps as a country can define world history for generations to come. Will we continue our reliance on oil and its tacit support of Putin's economy? Or will we intensify our shift to green energies and make our country more self-sufficient and secure? The global spotlight is on us once again to lead. We hope our country will honor the lives of its veterans and the soldiers fighting in Ukraine by strengthening energy security support and transitioning towards green energy.

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Generation Impact Report reveals how Canada's electricity sector can recruit Millennials and Gen Z, highlighting workforce gaps, career pathways, innovative projects, secure pay, and renewable energy opportunities to attract young talent nationwide.

Key Points

An EHRC survey on youth views of electricity careers and recruitment strategies to build a skilled workforce.

✅ Surveyed 1,500 Canadians aged 18-36 nationwide

✅ Highlights barriers: low awareness of sector roles

✅ Emphasizes fulfilling work, secure pay, innovation

Young Canadians make up far less of the electricity workforce than other sectors, says Electricity Human Resources Canada, as noted in an EHRC investment announcement that highlights sector priorities, and its latest report aims to answer the question “Why?”.

The report, “Generation Impact: Future Workforce Perspectives”, was based on a survey of 1500 respondents across Canada between the ages of 18 and 36. This cohort’s perspectives on the electricity sector were mostly Positive or Neutral, and that Millennial and Gen Z Canadians are largely open to considering careers in electricity, especially as initiatives such as a Nova Scotia energy training program expand access.

The biggest barrier is a knowledge gap in electrical safety that limits awareness of the opportunities available.

To an industry looking to develop a pipeline of young talent, “Generation Impact” reveals opportunities for recruitment; key factors that Millennial and Gen Z Canadians seek in their ideal careers include fulfilling work, secure pay and the chance to be involved in innovative projects, including specialized arc flash training in Vancouver opportunities that build expertise.

“The electricity sector is already home to the kinds of fulfilling and innovative careers that many in the Millennial and Gen Z cohorts are looking for,” said Michelle Branigan, CEO of EHRC. “Now it’s just a matter of communicating effectively about the opportunities and benefits, including leadership in worker safety initiatives, our sector can offer.”

“Engaging young workers in Canada’s electricity sector is critical for developing the resiliency and innovation needed to support the transformation of Canada’s energy future, especially as working from home drives up electricity bills and reshapes demand,” said Seamus O’Regan, Canada’s Minister of Natural Resources. “The insights of this report will help to position the sector competitively to leverage the talent and skills of young Canadians.”

“Generation Impact” was funded in part by the Government of Canada’s Student Work Placement Program and Natural Resources Canada’s Emerging Renewable Power Program, in a context of rising residential electricity use that underscores workforce needs.

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Crosbie Hydro Energy Action Plan outlines rate mitigation for Muskrat Falls, leveraging Nalcor oil revenues, export sales, Holyrood savings, and potential Hydro-Quebec taxation to keep Newfoundland and Labrador electricity rates near 14.67 cents/kWh.

Key Points

PC plan to cap post-Muskrat rates by using Nalcor revenues, exports, and savings, with optional Accord funds.

✅ $575.4M yearly to hold rates near 14.67 cents/kWh

✅ Sources: Nalcor oil $231M, Holyrood $150M, rates/dividends $123.4M

✅ Options: export sales, restructuring, Atlantic Accord, HQ tax

Newfoundland and Labrador PC Leader Ches Crosbie says Muskrat Falls won't drive up electricity rates, a goal consistent with an agreement to shield ratepayers from cost overruns, if he's elected premier.

According to Crosbie, who presented the party's Crosbie Hydro Energy Action Plan — acronym CHEAP — at a press conference Monday, $575.4 million is needed per year in order to keep rates from ballooning past 14.67 cents per kilowatt hour.

Here's where he thinks the money could come from:

• Hydro rates and dividends — $123.4 million
• Export sales — $40.1 million
• Nalcor restructuring — $30 million
• Holyrood savings — $150  million
• Nalcor oil revenue — $231 million

The oil money, Crosbie said, isn't going into government coffers but being invested into the offshore which, he said, is a good place for it.

"But the plan from the beginning around Muskrat Falls was that if there was need for it — for mitigation for rates — that those revenues and operating cash flows from Nalcor oil and gas would be available to be recycled into rate mitigation, as reflected in a recent financial update on the pandemic's impact. and that's what we're going to have to do," he said.

According to Crosbie, his numbers come from the preliminary stage of the Public Utilities Board process, even as rate mitigation talks have lacked public details.

This is a recent aerial view of the Muskrat Falls project in central Labrador. The project is more than 90 per cent complete, with first power forecast for late 2019, alongside Ottawa's $5.2B support for the project. (Nalcor)

"I'm telling you this is the best information available to anyone outside of government," he said. "We're working on what we can."

The PUB estimated Nalcor restructuring could save between $10 million and $15 million, according to Crosbie, but he figures there's "enough duplication and overpayment involved in the way things are now set up that we can find $30 million there."

Currently, provincial ratepayers pay about 12 cents per kilowatt hour as electricity users have started paying for Muskrat Falls costs.

Crosbie's $575.4-million figure would put rates at 14.67 cents per kilowatt-hour in 2021, where his plan pledges to keep them.

A recent Public Utilities Board Report says there's a potential $10 million to $15 million in savings from Nalcor, but Crosbie says he can find $30 million. (CBC)

"The promise is that Muskrat Falls, when it comes online — comes in service — will not increase your rates. Between now and when that happens there are rate increases already in the pipeline up to that level of [14.67 cents per kilowatt-hour] … so that is the baseline target rate at which rates will be kept.

"In other words, Muskrat will not drive up prices for electricity to consumers beyond that point."

In addition to those savings, Crosbie's plan outlined two further steps.

"We think it could be done out of the resources that I've just identified now, but if there's a problem with that, and as a temporary measure, we can use a modest amount of the Atlantic Accord review, fiscal review, revenues," he said.

Plan 'nothing new'

Premier Dwight Ball slammed the plan at the House of Assembly on Monday, saying it lacked insight.

"It was a copy and paste exercise," he told reporters. "There's nothing new in that plan. Not at all."

"We're not leaving any stone unturned of where the opportunity would be to actually generate revenue," he said.  "We are genuinely concerned about rate mitigation and we've got to get a plan in place."

Potential to tax Hydro-Québec

Crosbie also said there's potential to tax Hydro-Québec.

According to Crosbie, tax exemptions that expired in 2016 allow the province to tax exports from the Upper Churchill, which, he said, could result in "hundreds of millions or billions" in revenue.

"It's not my philosophy to immediately go and do that because that would generate litigation — who needs more of that? — but we do need to let Quebec know that we're very aware of that, and aware of that opportunity, and invite them to come talk about a whole host of issues," Crosbie said.

Crosbie said the tax would also have to be applied to domestic consumption.

"But so massive is the potential revenue from the Upper Churchill export that there would be ways to mitigate that and negate the effect of that on consumers in the province."

Crosbie said with the Atlantic Accord revenue, he could still present a balanced budget by 2022.

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Germany January Power Mix shows gas-fired generation rising, coal steady, and nuclear phaseout impacts, amid cold weather, energy prices, industrial demand, and emissions targets shaping renewables, grid stability, and security of supply.

Key Points

The January electricity mix, highlighting gas, coal, renewables, and nuclear exit effects on emissions, prices, and demand.

✅ Gas output up 13% to 8.74 TWh, share at 18.6%.

✅ Coal share 23%, down year on year, steady vs late 2023.

✅ Nuclear gap filled by gas and coal; emissions below Jan 2023.

Germany's electricity generation in January presented a fascinating snapshot of its energy transition journey. As the country strives to move away from fossil fuels, with renewables overtaking coal and nuclear in its power mix, it grapples with the realities of replacing nuclear power and meeting fluctuating energy demands.

Gas Takes the Lead:

Gas-fired power plants saw their highest output in two years, generating 8.74 terawatt hours (TWh). This 13% increase compared to January 2023 compensated for the closure of nuclear reactors, which were extended during the energy crisis to shore up supply, and colder weather driving up heating needs. This reliance on gas, however, pushed its share in the electricity mix to 18.6%, highlighting Germany's continued dependence on fossil fuels.

Coal Fades, but Not Forgotten:

While gas surged, coal-fired generation remained below previous levels, dropping 29% from January 2023. However, it stayed relatively flat compared to late 2023, suggesting utilities haven't entirely eliminated it. Coal still held a 23% share, and periodic coal reliance remains evident, exceeding gas' contribution, reflecting its role as a reliable backup for intermittent renewable sources like wind.

Nuclear Void and its Fallout:

The shutdown of nuclear plants in April 2023 created a significant gap, previously accounting for an average of 12% of annual electricity output. This loss is being compensated through gas and coal, with gas currently the preferred choice, even as a nuclear option debate persists among policymakers. This strategy kept January's power sector emissions lower than the previous year, but rising demand could shift the balance.

Industry's Uncertain Impact:

Germany's industrial sector, a major energy consumer, is facing challenges like high energy prices and weak consumer demand. While the government aims to foster industrial recovery, uncertainties linger due to a shaky coalition and limited budget, and debate about a possible nuclear resurgence continues in parallel, which could reshape policy. Any future industrial revival would likely increase energy demand and potentially necessitate more gas or coal.

Cost-Driven Choices and Emission Concerns:

The choice between gas and coal depends on their relative costs, in a system pursuing a coal and nuclear phase-out under long-term policy. Currently, gas seems more favorable emission-wise, but if its price rises, coal might become more attractive, impacting overall emissions.

Looking Ahead:

Germany's energy transition faces a complex balancing act, with persistent grid expansion woes and exposure to cheap gas complicating progress. While the reliance on gas and coal highlights the difficulties in replacing nuclear, the focus on emissions reduction is encouraging. Navigating the challenges of affordability, industrial needs, and climate goals will be crucial for a successful transition to a clean and secure energy future.

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Hydro-Quebec Crypto Mining Pause signals a temporary halt as blockchain power requests surge; energy regulator review will weigh electricity demand, winter peak constraints, tariffs, investments, and local jobs to optimize grid stability and revenues.

Key Points

A provincial halt on new miner power requests as Hydro-Quebec sets rules to safeguard demand, winter peaks, and rates.

✅ Temporary halt on new electricity sales to crypto miners

✅ Regulator to rank projects by jobs, investment, and revenue

✅ Winter peak demand and tariffs central to new framework

Major Canadian electricity provider Hydro-Québec will temporarily stop processing requests from cryptocurrency miners in order for the company to fulfil its obligations to supply energy to the entire province, while its global ambitions adjust to changing demand, according to a press release published June 7.

Hydro-Québec is experiencing “unprecedented” demand from blockchain companies, which reportedly exceeds the electric utility’s short and medium-term capacity. In this regard, the Quebec provincial government has ordered Hydro-Québec to halt electric power sales to cryptocurrency miners, and, following the New Hampshire rejection of Northern Pass announced a new framework for this category of electricity consumers.

In the coming days, Hydro-Québec will reportedly file an application to local energy regulator Régie de l'énergie, proposing a selection process for blockchain industry projects so as “not to miss the opportunities offered by this industry.” Regulators will reportedly target companies which can offer the province the most profitable economic advantages, including investments and local job creation.

#google#

Régie de l'énergie is instructed to consider “the need for a reserved block of energy for this category of consumers, the possibility of maximizing Hydro-Québec's revenues, and issues related to the winter peak period” as well as interprovincial arrangements like the Ontario-Québec electricity deal under discussion. Éric Filion, President of Hydro-Québec Distribution, said:

"The blockchain industry is a promising avenue for Hydro-Québec. Guidelines are nevertheless required to ensure that the development of this industry maximizes spinoffs for Québec without resulting in rate increases for our customers. We are actively participating in the Régie de l'énergie's process so that these guidelines can be produced as quickly as possible."

With this move, the government of Québec deviates from its decision to reportedly open the electricity market to miners at the end of last month, even as an Ontario-Quebec energy swap helps manage electricity demands. In March, the government said it was not interested in providing cheap electricity to Bitcoin miners, stating that cryptocurrency mining at a discount without any sort of “added value” for the local economy was unfavorable.

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