Turkish parliament OKs nuclear construction

COVID-19 Impact on U.S. Power Demand shows falling electricity load, lower wholesale prices, and resilient utilities in competitive markets, with regional differences tied to weather, renewable energy, stay-at-home orders, and hedging strategies.

Key Points

It outlines reduced load and prices, while regulatory design and hedging support utility stability across regions.

✅ Load down in NY, New England, PJM; weather drives South up.

✅ Wholesale prices fall 8-10% in key markets.

✅ Decoupling, contracts, hedging support utility earnings.

On March 27, Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) released a report on electricity demand and wholesale market prices impact from COVID-19 fallout. The model compares expected load based largely on weather with actual observed electricity demand changes.

So far, the hardest hit power grid is New York, with load down 7 and prices off by 10 percent. That’s expected, given New York City is the current epicenter of the US health crisis.

Next is New England, with 5 percent lower demand and 8 percent reduced wholesale prices for the week from March 19-25. BNEF says the numbers could go higher following advisories and orders issued March 24 for some 70 percent of the region’s population to stay at home.

Demand on the biggest grid in the US, the PJM (Pennsylvania/Jersey/Maryland), is 4 percent lower, with prices dropping 8 percent, as recent capacity auction payouts fell sharply. BNEF believes there will be more impact as stay at home orders are ramped up in several states.

California’s power demand for March 19-25 was 5 percent below what BNEF’s model expects without COVID-19 impact. That reflects a full week of stay-at-home orders from Governor Newsom issued March 19.

Health officials in Los Angeles and elsewhere expect a spike in COVID-19 cases in coming weeks. But BNEF’s model now actually projects rising electricity load for the state, due to what it calls "freakishly mild weather a year ago."

Rounding out the report, power demand is up for a band of southern states stretching from Florida to the desert Southwest, with weather more than offsetting public response to COVID-19 so far. BNEF says the Northwest’s grid "has not yet been highly impacted," while the Southeast is "generally in line" with pre-virus expectations.

Clearly, all of this data can change quickly and radically. Only California and New York are currently in full shutdown mode. Following them are New England (70 percent), the Midwest (65 percent), Texas (50 percent), PJM (50 percent) and the Northwest (50 percent).

In contrast, only small parts of Florida, the Southeast and Southwest are restricting movement. That could mean a big future increase for shut-ins, with heightened risks of electricity shut-offs that burden households and a corresponding impact on power demand.

Also, weather will play a major role on what happens to actual electricity demand, just as it always does. A very hot summer, for example, could offset virus-related shut-ins, just as it apparently is now in states like Texas. And it should be pointed out that regions vary widely by exposure to recession-sensitive sources of demand, such as heavy industry.

Most important for investors, however, is the built in protection US utility earnings enjoy from declining power demand, even amid broader energy crisis pressures facing the sector. For one thing, US power grids in California, ERCOT (Texas), MISO (Midwest), New England, New York and PJM have wholesale power markets, where producers compete for sales and the lowest bidder sets the price.

In those states, most regulated utilities don’t produce power at all. In fact, companies’ revenue is decoupled entirely from demand in California, as well as much of New England. In the roughly three-dozen states where utilities still operate as integrated monopolies, demand does affect revenue, and in many regions flat electricity demand already persists. But the cost of electricity is passed through directly to customers, whether produced or purchased.

A number of US electric companies have invested in renewable energy facilities as part of broader electrification trends nationwide. These sell their output under long-term contracts primarily with other utilities and government entities.

This isn’t a risk free business: For the past year, generators selling electricity to bankrupt PG&E Corp (PCG) have had their cash trapped at the power plant level as surety for lenders. But even PG&E has honored its contracts. And with states continuing aggressive mandates for renewable energy adoption, growth doesn’t appear at risk to COVID-19 fallout either.

The wholesale price of power from natural gas, coal and many nuclear plants was already sliding before COVID-19, due to renewables adoption and low natural gas prices, even as coal and nuclear disruptions raise reliability concerns. But here too, big producers like Exelon Corp (EXC) and Vistra Energy (VST) have employed aggressive price hedging near term, with regulated utilities and retail businesses protecting long-term health, respectively.

Bottom line: It’s early days for the COVID-19 crisis and much can still change. But so far at least, the US power industry is absorbing the blow of reduced demand, just as it’s done in previous crises.

That means future selloffs in the ongoing bear market are buying opportunities for best in class electric utilities, not a reason to sell. For top candidates, see the Conrad’s Utility Investor Portfolios and Dream Buy List in the March issue. 

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Denmark Renewable Energy Outlook assesses Eurostat ranking, district heating and trash incineration, EV adoption, wind turbine testing expansions, and electrification to cut CO2, aligning policies with EU 2050 climate goals and green electricity usage.

Key Points

A brief analysis of Denmark's green power use, electrification, EVs, and policies needed to meet EU 2050 CO2 goals.

✅ Eurostat rank low due to trash incineration in district heating.

✅ EV adoption stalled after tax reinstatement, slowing electrification.

✅ Wind test centers expanded; electrification could cut 95% CO2.

Denmark’s low ranking in the latest figures from Eurostat regarding climate-friendly electricity, which places the country in 32nd place out of 40 countries, is partly a result of the country’s reliance on the incineration of trash to warm our homes via long-established district heating systems.

Additionally, there are not enough electric vehicles – a recent increase in sales was halted in 2016 when the government started to phase back registration taxes scrapped in 2008, and Europe’s EV slump underscores how fragile momentum can be.

Not enough green electricity being used

Denmark is good at producing green electricity, reports Politiken, but it does not use enough, and amid electricity price volatility in Europe this is bad news if it wants to fulfil the EU’s 2050 goal to eliminate CO2 emissions.

A recent report by Eurelectric and McKinsey demonstrates that if heating, transport and industry were electrified, reflecting a broader European push for electrification across the energy system, 95 percent of the country’s CO2 emissions could be eliminated by that date.

Wind turbine testing centre expansion approved

Parliament has approved the expansion of two wind turbine centres in northwest Jutland, supporting integration as e-mobility drives electricity demand in the coming years. The centres in Østerild and Høvsøre will have the capacity to test nine and seven turbines, measuring 330 and 200 metres in size (up from 250 and 165) respectively. The Østerild expansion should be completed in 2019, while Høvsøre ​​will have to wait a little longer.

Third on the Environmental Performance Index

Denmark finished third on the latest Environmental Performance Index, finishing only behind Switzerland and France. Its best category ranking was third for Environmental Health, and comparative energy efficiency benchmarking can help contextualize progress. Elsewhere, it ranked 11th for Ecosystem Vitality, 18th for Biodiversity and Habitat, 94th for Forests, 87th for Fisheries, 25th for Climate and Energy and 37th for Air Pollution, 14th for Water Resources and 7th for Agriculture.

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Wind Turbine Cancer Claim debunked: Iowa Republican senators back wind energy as fact-checks and DOE research find no link between turbine noise and cancer, limited effects on property values, and manageable wildlife impacts.

Key Points

Claims that turbine noise causes cancer, dismissed by studies and officials as unsupported by evidence.

✅ Grassley and Ernst call the claim idiotic and ridiculous

✅ DOE studies find no cancer link; property impacts limited

✅ Wildlife impacts mitigated; climate change poses larger risks

President Donald Trump may not be a fan of wind turbines, as shown by his pledge to scrap offshore wind projects earlier, suggesting that the noise they produce may cause cancer, but Iowa's Republican senators are big fans of wind energy.

Sen. Chuck Grassley called Trump's cancer claim "idiotic." On Thursday, Sen. Joni Ernst called the statement "ridiculous."

"I would say it's ridiculous. It's ridiculous," Ernst said, according to WHO-TV.

She likened the claim that wind turbine noise causes cancer to the idea that church bells do the same.

"I have church bells that ring all the time across from my office here in D.C. and I know that noise doesn't give me cancer, otherwise I'd have 'church bell cancer,'" Ernst said, adding that she is "thrilled" to have wind energy generation in Iowa, which aligns with a quarter-million wind jobs forecast nationwide. "I don't know what the president is drawing from."

Trump has a history of degrading wind energy and wind turbines that dates back long before his Tuesday claim that turbines harm property values and cause cancer, and often overlooks Texas grid constraints that can force turbines offline at times.

Not only are wind farms disgusting looking, but even worse they are bad for people's health.

"Not only are wind farms disgusting looking, but even worse, they are bad for people's health," Trump tweeted back in 2012.

Repeated fact-checks have found no scientific evidence to support the claim that wind turbines and the noise they make can cause cancer. The White House has reportedly provided no evidence to support Trump's cancer claim when asked this week

"It just seems like every time you turn around there's another thing the president is saying -- wind power causes cancer, I associate myself with the remarks of Chairman Grassley -- it's an 'idiotic' statement," Pelosi said in her weekly news conference on Thursday.

The president made his latest claim about wind turbines in a speech on Tuesday at a Republican spring dinner, as the industry continued recovering from the COVID-19 crisis that hit solar and wind energy.

"If you have a windmill anywhere near your house, congratulations, your house just went down 75 percent in value -- and they say the noise causes cancer," Trump said Tuesday, swinging his arm in a circle and making a cranking sound to imitate the noise of windmill blades. "And of course it's like a graveyard for birds. If you love birds, you never want to walk under a windmill. It’s a sad, sad sight."

Wind turbines are not, in fact, proven to have widespread negative impacts on property values, according to the Department of Energy's Office of Scientific and Technical Information in the largest study done so far in the U.S., even as some warn that a solar ITC extension could be devastating for the wind market, and there is no peer-reviewed data to back up the claim that the noise causes cancer.

I am considered a world-class expert in tourism. When you say, 'Where is the expert and where is the evidence?' I say: I am the evidence.

It's true wildlife is affected by wind turbines -- particularly birds and bats, with research showing whooping cranes avoid turbines when selecting stopover sites. One study estimated between 140,000 and 328,000 birds are killed annually by collisions with turbines across the U.S. The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimated, however, that other human-related impacts also contribute to declines in population.

The wind industry works with biologists to find solutions to the impact of turbines on wildlife, and the Department of Energy awards grants each year to researchers addressing the issue, even as the sector faced pandemic investment risks in 2020. But, overall, scientists warn that climate change itself is a bigger threat to bird populations than wind turbines, according to the National Audobon Society.

Speaker Nancy Pelosi: "It just seems like every time you turn around, there's another thing. The president is saying wind power causes cancer. I associate myself with the remarks of Chairman Grassley; It's an 'idiotic' statement"

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Iceland Bitcoin Mining Energy Shortage highlights surging cryptocurrency and blockchain data center electricity demand, as hydroelectric and geothermal power strain to cool servers, stabilize grid, and meet rapid mining farm growth amid Arctic-friendly conditions.

Key Points

Crypto mining data centers in Iceland are outpacing renewable power, straining the grid and exceeding residential electricity demand.

✅ Hydroelectric and geothermal capacity nearing allocation limits

✅ Cooling-friendly climate draws energy-hungry mining farms

✅ Grid planning and regulation lag rapid data center growth

The value of bitcoin may have stumbled in recent months, but in Iceland it has known only one direction so far: upward. The stunning success of cryptocurrencies around the globe has had a more unexpected repercussion on the island of 340,000 people: It could soon result in an energy shortage in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean.

As Iceland has become one of the world's prime locations for energy-hungry cryptocurrency servers — something analysts describe as a 21st-century gold-rush equivalent — the industry’s electricity demands have skyrocketed, too. For the first time, they now exceed Icelanders’ own private energy consumption, and energy producers fear that they won’t be able to keep up with rising demand if Iceland continues to attract new companies bidding on the success of cryptocurrencies, a concern echoed by policy moves like Russia's proposed mining ban amid electricity deficits.

Companies have flooded Iceland with requests to open new data centers to “mine” cryptocurrencies in recent months, even as concerns mount that the country may have to slow down investments amid an increasingly stretched electricity generation capacity, a dynamic seen in BC Hydro's suspension of new crypto connections in Canada.

“There was a lot of talk about data centers in Iceland about five years ago, but it was a slow start,” Johann Snorri Sigurbergsson, a spokesman for Icelandic energy producer HS Orka, told The Washington Post. “But six months ago, interest suddenly began to spike. And over the last three months, we have received about one call per day from foreign companies interested in setting up projects here.”

“If all these projects are realized, we won’t have enough energy for it,” Sigurbergsson said.

Every cryptocurrency in the world relies on a “blockchain” platform, which is needed to trade with digital currencies. Tracking and verifying a transaction on such a platform is like solving a puzzle because networks are often decentralized, and there is no single authority in charge of monitoring payments. As a result, a transaction involves an immense number of mathematical calculations, which in turn occupy vast computer server capacity. And that requires a lot of electricity, as analyses of bitcoin's energy use indicate worldwide.

The bitcoin rush may have come as a surprise to locals in sleepy Icelandic towns that are suddenly bustling with cryptocurrency technicians, but there’s a simple explanation. “The economics of bitcoin mining mean that most miners need access to reliable and very cheap power on the order of 2 or 3 cents per kilowatt hour. As a result, a lot are located near sources of hydro power, where it’s cheap,” Sam Hartnett, an associate at the nonprofit energy research and consulting group Rocky Mountain Institute, told the Washington Post.

Top financial regulators briefed a Senate panel on Feb. 6 about their work with cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, and the risks to potential investors. (Reuters)

Located in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean and famous for its hot springs and mighty rivers, Iceland produces about 80 percent of its energy in hydroelectric power stations, compared with about 6 percent in the United States, and innovations such as underwater kites illustrate novel ways to harness marine energy. That and the cold climate make it a perfect location for new data-mining centers filled with servers in danger of overheating.

Those conditions have attracted scores of foreign companies to the remote location, including Germany's Genesis Mining, which moved to Iceland about three years ago. More have followed suit since then or are in the process of moving. 

While some analysts are already sensing a possible new revenue source for the country that is so far mostly known abroad as a tourist haven and low-budget airline hub, others are more concerned by a phenomenon that has so far mostly alarmed analysts because of its possible financial unsustainability, alongside issues such as clean energy's dirty secret that complicate the picture. Some predictions have concluded that cryptocurrency computer operations may account for “all of the world’s energy by 2020” or may already account for the equivalent of Denmark's energy needs. Those predictions are probably too alarmist, though. 

Most analysts agree that the real energy-consumption figure is likely smaller, and several experts recently told the Washington Post that bitcoin — currently the world's biggest cryptocurrency — used no more than 0.14 percent of the world’s generated electricity, as of last December. Even though global consumption may not be as significant as some have claimed, it still presents a worrisome drain for a tiny country such as Iceland, where consumption suddenly began to spike with almost no warning — and continues to grow fast.

Some networks are considering or have already pushed through changes to their protocols, designed to reduce energy use. But implementing such changes for the leading currency, bitcoin, won't be as easy because it is inherently decentralized. The companies that provide the vast amounts of computing power needed for these transactions earn a small share, comparable to a processing fee or a reward.

They are the source of the Icelandic bitcoin miners’ income — a revenue source that many Icelanders are still not quite sure what to make of, especially if the lights start flickering.

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Lebanon-ENOC Fuel Swap secures Iraqi high sulphur fuel oil, Grade B fuel oil, and gasoil via tender, easing electricity generation shortfalls, diesel shortages, and grid outages amid Lebanon's energy crisis and power sector emergency.

Key Points

A tender-based exchange trading Iraqi HSFO for cleaner fuel oil and gasoil to stabilize Lebanon's electricity generation.

✅ Swaps 84,000t Iraqi HSFO for 30,000t Grade B fuel oil and 33,000t gasoil

✅ Supports state electricity generation during acute power shortages

✅ Tender won by ENOC under Lebanon-Iraq goods-for-fuel deal

Lebanon's energy ministry said it had picked Dubai's ENOC in a tender to swap 84,000 tonnes of Iraqi high sulphur fuel oil, as LNG export authorizations expand globally, with 30,000 tonnes of Grade B fuel oil and 33,000 tonnes of gasoil.

ENOC won the tender, part of a deal between the two countries that allows the cash-strapped Lebanese government, even as electricity tensions persist, to pay for 1 million tonnes of Iraqi heavy fuel oil a year in goods and services.

As Lebanon suffers what the World Bank has described as one of the deepest depressions of modern history, shortages of fuel this month have meant state-powered electricity, alongside ongoing electricity sector reform, has been available for barely a few hours a day if at all.

Residents turning to private generators for their power supply face diesel shortages, even as other countries roll out measures to secure electricity supplies to mitigate risks.

The swap tenders are essential as Iraqi fuel is unsuitable for Lebanese electricity generation, and regional projects like the Jordan-Saudi electricity linkage underscore broader grid strategies.

Lebanese caretaker Energy Minister Raymond Ghajar said in July the fuel from the Iraqi deal would be used for electricity generation by the state provider, even as France advances a new electricity pricing scheme in Europe, and was enough for around four months.

ENOC is set to receive the Iraq fuel between Sept. 3-5 and will deliver it to Lebanon two weeks after, the energy ministry said, following a recent deal on electricity prices abroad that could influence markets.

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Michigan EV time-of-use charging helps DTE Energy and Consumers Energy manage off-peak demand, expand smart charger rebates, and build DC fast charging infrastructure, lowering grid costs, emissions, and peak load impacts across Michigan's distribution networks.

Key Points

Michigan utility programs using time-based EV rates to shift charging off-peak and ease grid load via charger rebates.

✅ Off-peak rates cut peak load and distribution transformer stress.

✅ Rebates support home smart chargers and DC fast charging sites.

✅ DTE Energy and Consumers Energy invest to expand EV infrastructure.

The two largest utilities in the state of Michigan, DTE Energy and Consumers Energy, are looking at time-of-use charging rates in two proposed electric vehicle (EV) charging programs, aligned with broader EV charging infrastructure trends among utilities, worth a combined $20.5 million of investments.

DTE Energy last month proposed a $13 million electric vehicle (EV) charging program, which would include transformer upgrades/additions, service drops, labor and contractor costs, materials, hardware and new meters to provide time-of-use charging rates amid evolving charging control dynamics in the market. The Charging Forward program aims to address customer education and outreach, residential smart charger support and charging infrastructure enablement, DTE told regulators in its 1,100-page filing. The utility requested that rebates provided through the program be deferred as a regulatory asset.

Consumers Energy in 2017 withdrew a proposal to install 800 electric vehicle charging ports in its Michigan service territory after questions were raised over how to pay for the $15 million plan. According to Energy News Network, the utility has filed a modified proposal building on the former plan and conversations over the last year that calls for approximately half of the original investment.

Utilities across the country are viewing new demand from EVs as a potential boon to their systems, a shift accelerated by the Model 3's impact on utility planning, potentially allowing greater utilization and lower costs. But that will require the vehicles to be plugged in when other demand is low, to avoid the need for extensive upgrades and more expensive power purchases. Michigan utilities' proposal focuses on off-peak EV charging, as well as on developing new EV infrastructure.

While adoption has remained relatively low nationally, last year the Edison Electric Institute and the Institute for Electric Innovation forecast 7 million EVs on United States' roads by the end of 2025. But unless those EVs can be coordinated, state power grids could face increased stress, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory has said distribution transformers may need to be replaced more frequently and peak load could push system limits — even with just one or two EVs on a neighborhood circuit. 

In its application, DTE told regulators that electrification of transportation offers a range of benefits including "reduced operating costs for EV drivers and affordability benefits for utility customers."

"Most EV charging takes place overnight at home, effectively utilizing distribution and generation capacity in the system during a low load period," the utility said. "Therefore, increased EV adoption puts downward pressure on rates by spreading fixed costs over a greater volume of electric sales."

DTE added that other benefits include reduced carbon emissions, improved air quality, increased expenditures in local economies and reduced dependency on foreign oil for the public at large.

A previous proposal from Consumers Energy included 60 fast charging DC stations along major highways in the Lower Peninsula and 750 240-volt AC stations in metropolitan areas. Consumers' new plan will offer rebates for charger installation, as U.S. charging networks jostle for position amid federal electrification efforts, including residential and DC fast-charging stations.

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