Europe mulls nuclear-free future

By Reuters


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Europe is considering "stress testing" its nuclear power stations to check they can cope with crises, while its energy chief even raised the prospect of a nuclear-free future.

The developments mark a dramatic turnaround for a continent that had been considering a partial nuclear revival until just recently, when Japan's nuclear accident highlighted how quickly events can run out of control — and not only after an earthquake.

"We must also raise the question — if we in Europe, in the foreseeable future, can secure our energy needs without nuclear energy," EU energy commissioner Guenther Oettinger told Germany's ARD television.

The nuclear revival was prompted by Europe's rush to low-carbon energy to guard against climate change, but public mistrust runs high following the 1986 Chernobyl accident.

Nowhere is the debate more volatile than in Germany, where the government went as far as announcing the suspension of operations at all seven of its pre-1980 nuclear plants.

And Austria, one of the Europe Union's biggest opponents of nuclear power, received some support to its call for "stress tests" to reassure citizens worried by the crisis in Japan. It was not immediately clear, however, what those tests on power stations would involve.

Supporters of nuclear power warned against knee-jerk reactions, pointing out that Europe is much less geologically active than Japan.

But critics countered that other threats, such as terrorism, could cut a reactor's power supply — with similar consequences.

EU energy commissioner Guenther Oettinger convened a meeting of ministers, experts and nuclear operators in Brussels, at which he tabled the possibility of stress tests.

"This is an idea that needs to be considered," Oettinger's spokeswoman, Marlene Holzner, told reporters. "It will also be one of the topics this afternoon that they will talk about — stress tests for nuclear power plants in Europe."

Oettinger said the issue should be dealt with at a pan-European level.

"We must coordinate what is important for us at a European level," he said. "If we in Germany are examining nuclear plants from the '80s and '90s, we must also raise the question of whether the security check should be done for all atomic plants in Europe," he added.

Many Europeans are worried about the safety of Soviet-designed reactors in eastern Europe, such as Bulgaria's Kozloduy plant.

Meanwhile, France, which relies on nuclear for 80 percent of its power needs, backed its "safe" reactors.

Oettinger's spokeswoman Holzner said Tuesday's meeting of experts was mainly to collate safety information.

"What really has made this Japanese crisis so heavy and so out of control was the fact that the power supply was completely knocked out. So one of the questions he will ask is — what kind of emergency power supply systems are in place?"

"What happens if there were a natural disaster? Do you have in place a second back-up system?"

Earthquake risk cannot be ruled out in Europe, especially close to the Skopje-Razgrad fault line in Bulgaria, which is considering building a nuclear plant at Belene.

And Italy, which is planning to start its own nuclear program, is also quake prone.

"The European Commission should be more alert on nuclear safety," said Greenpeace nuclear campaigner Jan Haverkamp.

"We still see in the case of Belene that they are relying on bad data and that the Commission accepted a statement saying that there was no seismic risk in northern Bulgaria."

"Fourteen kilometers from the site where Belene is planned, 120 people were killed in 1977 in an earthquake."

The chairman of Bulgaria's nuclear regulator, Sergey Tzotchev, conceded there were issues that needed consideration.

"It's not as seismic as Japan, but there are some problems in this direction," he told reporters in Brussels.

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BloombergNEF: World offshore wind costs 'drop 32% per cent'

Global Renewable LCOE Trends reveal offshore wind costs down 32%, with 10MW turbines, lower CAPEX and OPEX, and parity for solar PV and onshore wind in Europe, China, and California, per BloombergNEF analysis.

 

Key Points

Benchmarks showing falling LCOE for offshore wind, onshore wind, and solar PV, driven by larger turbines and lower CAPEX

✅ Offshore wind LCOE $78/MWh; $53-64/MWh in DK/NL excl. transmission

✅ Onshore wind $47/MWh; solar PV $51/MWh, best $26-36/MWh

✅ Cost drivers: 10MW turbines, lower CAPEX/OPEX, weak China demand

 

World offshore wind costs have fallen 32% from just a year ago and 12% compared with the first half of 2019, according to a BNEF long-term outlook from BloombergNEF.

In its latest Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) Update, BloombergNEF said its current global benchmark LCOE estimate for offshore wind is $78 a megawatt-hour.

“New offshore wind projects throughout Europe, including the UK's build-out, now deploy turbines with power ratings up to 10MW, unlocking CAPEX and OPEX savings,” BloombergNEF said.

In Denmark and the Netherlands, it expects the most recent projects financed to achieve $53-64/MWh excluding transmission.

New solar and onshore wind projects have reached parity with average wholesale power prices in California and parts of Europe, while in China levelised costs are below the benchmark average regulated coal price, according to BloombergNEF.

The company's global benchmark levelized cost figures for onshore wind and PV projects financed in the last six months are at $47 and $51 a megawatt-hours, underscoring that renewables are now the cheapest new electricity option in many regions, down 6% and 11% respectively compared with the first half of 2019.

BloombergNEF said for wind this is mainly down to a fall in the price of turbines – 7% lower on average globally compared with the end of 2018.

In China, the world’s largest solar market, the CAPEX of utility-scale PV plants has dropped 11% in the last six months, reaching $0.57m per MW.

“Weak demand for new plants in China has left developers and engineering, procurement and construction firms eager for business, and this has put pressure on CAPEX,” BloombergNEF said.

It added that estimates of the cheapest PV projects financed recently – in India, Chile and Australia – will be able to achieve an LCOE of $27-36/MWh, assuming competitive returns for their equity investors.

Best-in-class onshore wind farms in Brazil, India, Mexico and Texas can reach levelized costs as low as $26-31/MWh already, the research said.

Programs such as the World Bank wind program are helping developing countries accelerate wind deployment as costs continue to drop.

BloombergNEF associate in the energy economics team Tifenn Brandily said: “This is a three- stage process. In phase one, new solar and wind get cheaper than new gas and coal plants on a cost-of- energy basis.

“In phase two, renewables reach parity with power prices. In phase three, they become even cheaper than running existing thermal plants.

“Our analysis shows that phase one has now been reached for two-thirds of the global population.

“Phase two started with California, China and parts of Europe. We expect phase three to be reached on a global scale by 2030.

“As this all plays out, thermal power plants will increasingly be relegated to a balancing role, looking for opportunities to generate when the sun doesn’t shine or the wind doesn’t blow.”

 

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Vancouver's Reversal on Gas Appliances

Vancouver Natural Gas Ban Reversal spotlights energy policy, electrification tradeoffs, heat pumps, emissions, grid reliability, and affordability, reshaping building codes and decarbonization pathways while inviting stakeholders to weigh practical constraints and climate goals.

 

Key Points

Vancouver ending its ban on natural gas in new homes to balance climate goals with reliability, costs, and technology.

✅ Balances emissions goals with reliability and affordability

✅ Impacts builders, homeowners, and energy infrastructure

✅ Spurs debate on electrification, heat pumps, and grid capacity

 

In a significant policy shift, Vancouver has decided to lift its ban on natural gas appliances in new homes, a move that marks a pivotal moment in the city's energy policy and environmental strategy. This decision, announced recently and following the city's Clean Energy Champion recognition for Bloedel upgrades, has sparked a broader conversation about the future of energy systems and the balance between environmental goals and practical energy needs. Stewart Muir, CEO of Resource Works, argues that this reversal should catalyze a necessary dialogue on energy choices, highlighting both the benefits and challenges of such a policy change.

Vancouver's original ban on natural gas appliances was part of a broader initiative aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions and promoting sustainability, including progress toward phasing out fossil fuels where feasible over time. The city had adopted stringent regulations to encourage the use of electric heat pumps and other low-carbon technologies in new residential buildings. This move was aligned with Vancouver’s ambitious climate goals, which include achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 and significantly cutting down on fossil fuel use.

However, the recent decision to reverse the ban reflects a growing recognition of the complexities involved in transitioning to entirely new energy systems. The city's administration acknowledged that while electric alternatives offer environmental benefits, they also come with challenges that can affect homeowners, builders, and the broader energy infrastructure, including options for bridging the electricity gap with Alberta to enhance regional reliability.

Stewart Muir argues that Vancouver’s policy shift is not just about natural gas appliances but represents a larger conversation about energy system choices and their implications. He suggests that the reversal of the ban provides an opportunity to address key issues related to energy reliability, affordability, and the practicalities of integrating new technologies, including electrified LNG options for industry within the province into existing systems.

One of the primary reasons behind the reversal is the recognition of the practical limitations and costs associated with transitioning to electric-only systems. For many homeowners and builders, natural gas appliances have long been a reliable and cost-effective option. The initial ban on these appliances led to concerns about increased construction costs and potential disruptions for homeowners who were accustomed to natural gas heating and cooking.

In addition to cost considerations, there are concerns about the reliability and efficiency of electric alternatives. Natural gas has been praised for its stable energy supply and efficient performance, especially in colder climates where electric heating systems might struggle to maintain consistent temperatures or fully utilize Site C's electricity under peak demand. By reversing the ban, Vancouver acknowledges that a one-size-fits-all approach may not be suitable for every situation, particularly when considering diverse housing needs and energy demands.

Muir emphasizes that the reversal of the ban should prompt a broader discussion about how to balance environmental goals with practical energy needs. He argues that rather than enforcing a blanket ban on specific technologies, it is crucial to explore a range of solutions that can effectively address climate objectives while accommodating the diverse requirements of different communities and households.

The debate also touches on the role of technological innovation in achieving sustainability goals. As energy technologies continue to evolve, renewable electricity is coming on strong and new solutions and advancements could potentially offer more efficient and environmentally friendly alternatives. The conversation should include exploring these innovations and considering how they can be integrated into existing energy systems to support long-term sustainability.

Moreover, Muir advocates for a more inclusive approach to energy policy that involves engaging various stakeholders, including residents, businesses, and energy experts. A collaborative approach can help identify practical solutions that address both environmental concerns and the realities of everyday energy use.

In the broader context, Vancouver’s decision reflects a growing trend in cities and regions grappling with energy transitions. Many urban centers are evaluating their energy policies and considering adjustments based on new information and emerging technologies. The key is to find a balance that supports climate goals such as 2050 greenhouse gas targets while ensuring that energy systems remain reliable, affordable, and adaptable to changing needs.

As Vancouver moves forward with its revised policy, it will be important to monitor the outcomes and assess the impacts on both the environment and the community. The reversal of the natural gas ban could serve as a case study for other cities facing similar challenges and could provide valuable insights into how to navigate the complexities of energy transitions.

In conclusion, Vancouver’s decision to reverse its ban on natural gas appliances in new homes is a significant development that opens the door for a critical dialogue about energy system choices. Stewart Muir’s call for a broader conversation emphasizes the need to balance environmental ambitions with practical considerations, such as cost, reliability, and technological advancements. As cities continue to navigate their energy futures, finding a pragmatic and inclusive approach will be essential in achieving both sustainability and functionality in energy systems.

 

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California’s Solar Power Cost Shift: A Misguided Policy Threatening Energy Equity

California Rooftop Solar Cost Shift examines PG&E rate hikes, net metering changes, and utility infrastructure spending impacts on low-income households, distributed generation, and clean energy adoption, potentially raising bills and undermining grid resilience.

 

Key Points

A claim that rooftop solar shifts fixed grid costs to others; critics cite PG&E rates, avoided costs, and impacts.

✅ PG&E rates outpace national average, underscoring cost drivers.

✅ Net metering cuts risk burdening low- and middle-income homes.

✅ Distributed generation avoids infrastructure spend and grid strain.

 

California is grappling with soaring electricity prices across the state, with Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E) rates more than double the national average and increasing at an average of 12.5% annually over the past six years. In response, Governor Gavin Newsom issued an executive order directing state energy agencies to identify ways to reduce power costs. However, recent policy shifts targeting rooftop solar users may exacerbate the problem rather than alleviate it.

The "Cost Shift" Theory

A central justification for these pricing changes is the "cost shift" theory. This theory posits that homeowners with rooftop solar panels reduce their electricity consumption from the grid, thereby shifting the fixed costs of maintaining and operating the electrical grid onto non-solar customers. Proponents argue that this leads to higher rates for those without solar installations.

However, this theory is based on a flawed assumption: that PG&E owns 100% of the electricity generated by its customers and is entitled to full profits even for energy it does not deliver. In reality, rooftop solar users supply only about half of their energy needs and still pay for the rest. Moreover, their investments in solar infrastructure reduce grid strain and save ratepayers billions by avoiding costly infrastructure projects and reducing energy demand growth, aligning with efforts to revamp electricity rates to clean the grid as well.

Impact on Low- and Middle-Income Households

The majority of rooftop solar users are low- and middle-income households. These individuals often invest in solar panels to lower their energy bills and reduce their carbon footprint. Policy changes that undermine the financial viability of rooftop solar disproportionately affect these communities, and efforts to overturn income-based charges add uncertainty about affordability and access.

For instance, Assembly Bill 942 proposes to retroactively alter contracts for millions of solar consumers, cutting the compensation they receive from providing energy to the grid, raising questions about major changes to your electric bill that could follow if their home is sold or transferred. This would force those with solar leases—predominantly lower-income individuals—to buy out their contracts when selling their homes, potentially incurring significant financial burdens.

The Real Drivers of Rising Energy Costs

While rooftop solar users are being blamed for rising electricity rates, calls for action have mounted as the true culprits lie elsewhere. Unchecked utility infrastructure spending has been a significant factor in escalating costs. For example, PG&E's rates have increased rapidly, yet the utility's spending on infrastructure projects has often been criticized for inefficiency and lack of accountability. Instead of targeting solar users, policymakers should scrutinize utility profit motives and infrastructure investments to identify areas where costs can be reduced without sacrificing service quality.

California's approach to addressing rising electricity costs by targeting rooftop solar users is misguided. The "cost shift" theory is based on flawed assumptions and overlooks the substantial benefits that rooftop solar provides to the grid and ratepayers. To achieve a sustainable and equitable energy future, the state must focus on controlling utility spending, promoting clean energy access for all, especially as it exports its energy policies across the West, and ensuring that policies support—not undermine—the adoption of renewable energy technologies.

 

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Iran eyes transmitting electricity to Europe as region’s power hub

Iran Electricity Grid Synchronization enables regional interconnection, cross-border transmission, and Caspian-Europe energy corridors, linking Iraq, Azerbaijan, Russia, and Qatar to West Asia and European markets with reliable, flexible power exchange.

 

Key Points

Iran's initiative to link West Asian and European power grids for trade, transit, reliability, and regional influence.

✅ Synchronizes grids with Iraq, Azerbaijan, Russia, and potential Qatar link

✅ Enables east-to-Europe electricity transit via Caspian energy corridors

✅ Backed by gas-fueled and combined-cycle generation capacity

 

Following a plan for becoming West Asia’s electricity hub, Iran has been taking serious steps for joining its electricity network with neighbors in the past few years.

The Iranian Energy Ministry has been negotiating with the neighboring countries including Iraq for the connection of their power networks with Iran, discussing Iran-Iraq energy cooperation as well as ties with Russia, Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, and Qatar to make them enable to import or transmit their electricity to new destination markets through Iran.

The synchronization of power grids with the neighboring countries, not only enhances Iran’s electricity exchanges with them, but it will also increase the political stance of the country in the region.

So far, Iran’s electricity network has been synchronized with Iraq, where Iran is supplying 40% of Iraq's power today, and back in September, the Energy Minister Reza Ardakanian announced that the electricity networks of Russia and Azerbaijan are the next in line for becoming linked with the Iranian grid in the coming months.

“Within the next few months, the study project of synchronization of the electricity networks of Iran, Azerbaijan, and Russia will be completed and then the executive operations will begin,” the minister said.

Meanwhile, Ardakanian and Qatari Minister of State for Energy Affairs Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi held an online meeting in late September to discuss joining the two countries' electricity networks via sea.

During the online meeting, Al-Kaabi said: "Electricity transfer between the two countries is possible and this proposal should be worked on.”

Now, taking a new step toward becoming the region’s power hub, Iran has suggested becoming a bridge between East and Europe for transmitting electricity.

In a virtual conference dubbed 1st Caspian Europe Forum hosted by Berlin on Thursday, the Iranian energy minister has expressed the country’s readiness for joining its electricity network with Europe.

"We are ready to connect Iran's electricity network, as the largest power generation power in West Asia, with the European countries and to provide the ground for the exchange of electricity with Europe," Ardakanian said addressing the online event.

Iran's energy infrastructure in the oil, gas, and electricity sectors can be used as good platforms for the transfer of energy from east to Europe, he noted.

In the event, which was aimed to study issues related to the development of economic cooperation, especially energy, between the countries of the Caspian Sea region, the official added that Iran, with its huge energy resources and having skilled manpower and advanced facilities in the field of energy, can pave the ground for the prosperity of international transport and energy corridors.

"In order to help promote communication between our landlocked neighbors with international markets, as Uzbekistan aims to export power to Afghanistan across the region, we have created a huge transit infrastructure in our country and have demonstrated in practice our commitment to regional development and peace and stability," Ardakanian said.

He pointed out that having a major percentage of proven oil and gas resources in the world, regional states need to strengthen relations in a bid to regulate production and export policies of these huge resources and potentially play a role in determining the price and supply of these resources worldwide.

“EU countries can join our regional cooperation in the framework of bilateral or multilateral mechanisms such as ECO,” he said.

Given the growing regional and global energy needs and the insufficient investment in the field, with parts of Central Asia facing severe electricity shortages today, as well as Europe's increasing needs, this area can become a sustainable area of cooperation, he noted.

Ardakanian also said that by investing in energy production in Iran, Europe can meet part of its future energy needs on a sustainable basis.

In Iraq, plans for nuclear power plants are being pursued to tackle chronic electricity shortages, reflecting parallel efforts to diversify generation.

Iran currently has electricity exchange with Armenia, Azerbaijan, Iraq, where grid rehabilitation deals have been finalized, Turkmenistan, and Afghanistan.

The country’s total electricity exports vary depending on the hot and cold seasons of the year, since during the hot season which is the peak consumption period, the country’s electricity exports decreases, however electrical communication with neighboring countries continues.

Enjoying abundant gas resources, which is the main fuel for the majority of the country’s power plants, Iran has the capacity to produce about 85,500 megawatts [85.5 gigawatts (GW)] of electricity.

Currently, combined cycle power plants account for the biggest share in the country’s total power generation capacity as Iran is turning thermal plants to combined cycle to save energy, followed by gas power plants.

 

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Seattle Apartment Fire Caused by Overheated Power Strip

Seattle Capitol Hill Apartment Fire highlights an electrical fire from an overheated power strip, a two-alarm response by 70 firefighters, safe evacuation, displaced resident aid, and prevention tips like smoke detectors and load limits.

 

Key Points

Two-alarm early-morning blaze in Seattle traced to an overheated power strip, displacing one resident and injuring none.

✅ Origin: overheated power strip ignited nearby combustibles

✅ Response: 70 firefighters, two-alarm, rapid containment

✅ Safety: avoid overloads; inspect cords; use smoke detectors

 

An early-morning fire in Seattle’s Capitol Hill neighborhood severely damaged a three-story apartment building, displacing one resident. The blaze, which broke out around 4:34 a.m. on a Friday, drew more than 70 firefighters to the scene, as other critical sectors have implemented on-site staffing during outbreaks to maintain operations, and was later traced to an overheated power strip.

The Fire Incident

The Seattle Fire Department responded to the fire, which had started on the second floor of the building in the 1800 block of 12th Avenue. Upon arrival, crews were met with heavy smoke and flames coming from one unit. The fire quickly spread to a unit on the third floor, prompting the Seattle Fire Department to escalate their response to a two-alarm fire due to its size and the potential threat to nearby structures.

Firefighters initially attempted to contain the blaze from the exterior before they moved inside the building to fully extinguish the fire. Thankfully, the fire was contained to the two affected units, preventing the destruction of the remaining seven apartments in the building.

All residents safely evacuated the building on their own. Despite the substantial damage to the two apartments, no injuries were reported. One resident was displaced by the fire and was assisted by the Red Cross in finding temporary accommodation.

Cause of the Fire

Investigators later determined that the fire was accidental, most likely caused by an overheated electrical power strip. The power strip had reportedly ignited nearby combustible materials, sparking the flames that quickly spread throughout the unit. Although the exact details are still under investigation, the fire serves as a stark reminder of the potential risks associated with overloaded or damaged electrical equipment and how electrical safety knowledge gaps can contribute to incidents.

The Risks of Power Strips

Power strips, while essential for providing multiple outlets, can pose a serious fire hazard if used improperly, and specialized arc flash training in Vancouver underscores the importance of understanding electrical hazards across settings.

This fire in Seattle highlights the importance of maintaining electrical devices and following proper usage guidelines. According to experts, it is crucial to regularly inspect power strips for any visible damage, such as frayed cords or scorch marks, and to replace them if necessary. It's also advisable to avoid using power strips with high-power appliances like space heaters, microwaves, or refrigerators.

Impact and Community Response

The fire has raised awareness about the dangers of electrical hazards in residential buildings, especially in older apartment complexes where wiring systems may not be up to modern standards. Local authorities and fire safety experts are urging residents to review safety guidelines and ensure that their living spaces are free from potential fire hazards and to avoid dangerous stunts at dams and towers that can lead to serious injuries.

Seattle's fire department, which responded to this incident, continues to emphasize fire prevention and safety education. This event also highlights the importance of having working smoke detectors and clear escape routes in apartment buildings, and ongoing fire alarm training can improve system reliability. The Seattle Fire Department recommends that all tenants know the locations of fire exits and practice safe evacuation procedures, especially in high-rise or multi-unit buildings.

Additionally, the Red Cross has stepped in to assist the displaced resident. The organization provides temporary shelter, food, and financial aid for those affected by disasters like fires. The fire underscores the importance of having emergency preparedness plans in place and the need for immediate relief for those who lose their homes in such incidents.

The Seattle apartment fire, which displaced one resident and caused significant damage to two units, serves as a reminder of the potential dangers associated with improperly maintained or overloaded electrical devices, especially power strips, and how industry recognition, such as a utility safety award, reinforces best practices. While the cause of this fire was linked to an overheated power strip, it could have easily been prevented with regular inspections and safer practices.

As fire departments continue to respond to similar incidents, it is critical for residents to stay informed about fire safety, particularly regarding electrical equipment and outdoor hazards like safety near downed power lines in storm conditions. Awareness, proper maintenance, and following safety protocols can significantly reduce the risk of electrical fires and help protect residents from harm.

 

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Surging electricity demand is putting power systems under strain around the world

Global Electricity Demand Surge strains power markets, fuels price volatility, and boosts coal and gas generation as renewables lag, driving emissions, according to the IEA, with grids and clean energy investment crucial through 2024.

 

Key Points

A surge in power use that strained supply, raised prices, and drove power-sector CO2 emissions to record highs.

✅ 6% demand growth in 2021; largest absolute rise ever

✅ Coal up 9%; gas +2%; renewables +6% could not meet demand

✅ Prices doubled vs 2020; volatility hit EU, China, India

 

Global electricity demand surged above pre-pandemic levels in 2021, creating strains in major markets, pushing prices to unprecedented levels and driving the power sector’s emissions to a record high. Electricity is central to modern life and clean electricity is pivotal to energy transitions, but in the absence of faster structural change in the sector, rising demand over the next three years could result in additional market volatility and continued high emissions, according an IEA report released today.

Driven by the rapid economic rebound, and more extreme weather conditions than in 2020, including a colder than average winter, last year’s 6% rise in global electricity demand was the largest in percentage terms since 2010 when the world was recovering from the global financial crisis. In absolute terms, last year’s increase of over 1 500 terawatt-hours was the largest ever, according to the January 2022 edition of the IEA’s semi-annual Electricity Market Report.

The steep increase in demand outstripped the ability of sources of electricity supply to keep pace in some major markets, with shortages of natural gas and coal leading to volatile prices, demand destruction and negative effects on power generators, retailers and end users, notably in China, Europe and India. Around half of last year’s global growth in electricity demand took place in China, where demand grew by an estimated 10%, highlighting that Asia is set to use half of global electricity by 2025 according to the IEA. China and India suffered from power cuts at certain points in the second half of the year because of coal shortages.

“Sharp spikes in electricity prices in recent times have been causing hardship for many households and businesses around the world and risk becoming a driver of social and political tensions,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. “Policy makers should be taking action now to soften the impacts on the most vulnerable and to address the underlying causes. Higher investment in low-carbon energy technologies including renewables, energy efficiency and nuclear power – alongside an expansion of robust and smart electricity grids – can help us get out of today’s difficulties.”

The IEA’s price index for major wholesale electricity markets almost doubled compared with 2020 and was up 64% from the 2016-2020 average. In Europe, average wholesale electricity prices in the fourth quarter of 2021 were more than four times their 2015-2020 average, and wind and solar generated more electricity than gas in the EU during the year.  Besides Europe, there were also sharp price increases in Japan and India, while they were more moderate in the United States where gas supplies were less perturbed.

Electricity produced from renewable sources grew by 6% in 2021, but it was not enough to keep up with galloping demand. Coal-fired generation grew by 9%, with soaring electricity and coal use serving more than half of the increase in demand and reaching a new all-time peak as high natural gas prices led to gas-to-coal switching. Gas-fired generation grew by 2%, while nuclear increased by 3.5%, almost reaching its 2019 levels. In total, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from power generation rose by 7%, also reaching a record high, after having declined the two previous years.

“Emissions from electricity need to decline by 55% by 2030 to meet our Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario, but in the absence of major policy action from governments, those emissions are set to remain around the same level for the next three years,” said Dr Birol. “Not only does this highlight how far off track we currently are from a pathway to net zero emissions by 2050, but it also underscores the massive changes needed for the electricity sector to fulfil its critical role in decarbonising the broader energy system.”

For 2022-2024, the report anticipates electricity demand growing 2.7% a year on average, although the Covid-19 pandemic and high energy prices bring some uncertainty to this outlook. Renewables are set to grow by 8% per year on average, and low-emissions sources are expected to serve more than 90% of net demand growth during this period. We expect nuclear-based generation to grow by 1% annually during the same period.

As a consequence of slowing electricity demand growth and significant renewables additions, fossil fuel-based generation is expected to stagnate in the coming years, and renewables are set to surpass coal by 2025 with coal-fired generation falling slightly as phase-outs and declining competitiveness in the United States and Europe are balanced by growth in markets like China, where electricity demand trends remain a puzzle in recent analyses, and India. Gas-fired generation is seen growing by around 1% a year.

 

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