TVA looks at six plausible futures for energy

TVA Integrated Resource Plan models six energy scenarios with demand forecasting, capacity planning, renewable energy, nuclear, natural gas, and climate policy to build a flexible portfolio through simulation, stakeholder input, and public meetings.

TVA is updating a long-range plan to weigh its energy options and match them with anticipated demand and is getting ready to examine six "plausible futures" it may face over the next 20 years.

The Tennessee Valley Authority is updating its Comprehensive Integrated Resources Plan, with a related TVA energy plan draft expected in the fall, and gave a presentation to about 15 people at a public meeting at TVA headquarters recently. During the summer, TVA started gathering and analyzing information to forecast energy needs, examine existing capacity, look at supply options and make calculations.

"We are just finishing up that phase of the study right now," said Gary Brinkworth, TVA's manager of capacity planning. "We will be moving into the actual simulation and modeling stage."

This will be step three of a six-step process that should result in a completed plan for the TVA Board to vote on by spring 2011, Brinkworth said. TVA has identified six scenarios it might face, depending on what happens to the economy:

• The economy recovers more strongly than expected, creating high demand for electricity. Renewable energy legislation is passed, demand for commodity and construction resources increase and electricity prices are moderated by increased gas supply.

• Mitigating climate change becomes a national priority and the costs of carbon allowances, gas and electricity increase significantly, though some analyses suggest pollution rules can create jobs in certain sectors. Industry focus turns to nuclear, gas, renewable energy sources and conservation.

• The economy fails to recover and there is a prolonged period of low power demand, as utilities hunker down for a tough year across the region. Federal climate change legislation is shelved.

• The economy grows stronger, demand for electricity is high, but a "game-changing" technology emerges, resulting in an abrupt decrease in power demand.

• The United States puts a focus on reducing dependence on foreign fuel sources as federal leaders consider how Washington can help TVA go green through policy support. The supply of natural gas is constrained, gas and electrical prices rise and energy efficiency and renewable energy become prime objectives.

• Federal climate change regulations pass and drive up fuel and electrical costs, making U.S. industries non-competitive. An economic downturn results.

Brinkworth said TVA will do modeling with those scenarios to try to come up with the most flexible strategy.

"We are going to try to identify one or more plans that survive in all six of those worlds and then try to prioritize those plans," he said.

These will eventually be presented in public meetings. Information on the Comprehensive Integrated Resource Plan is online at www.tva.gov and anyone may submit comments on federal standards through TVA's feedback channels at www.tva.gov/IRP.

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