SONGS goes solar with LED lighting

Sulphur Hexafluoride (SF6) Emissions drive rising greenhouse gas impacts in electrical switchgear, power grids, and renewables, with extreme global warming potential, long atmospheric lifetime, and leakage risks challenging climate targets and grid decarbonization.

Key Points

SF6 emissions are leaks from electrical switchgear and grids, a high-GWP gas with ~1,000-year lifetime.

✅ 23,500x CO2 global warming potential (GWP)

✅ Leaks from switchgear, breakers, gas-insulated substations

✅ Clean air and vacuum alternatives emerging for MV/HV

Sulphur hexafluoride, or SF6, is widely used in the electrical industry to prevent short circuits and accidents.

But leaks of the little-known gas in the UK and the rest of the EU in 2017 were the equivalent of putting an extra 1.3 million cars on the road.

Levels are rising as an unintended consequence of the green energy boom and the broader global energy transition worldwide.

Cheap and non-flammable, SF6 is a colourless, odourless, synthetic gas. It makes a hugely effective insulating material for medium and high-voltage electrical installations.

It is widely used across the industry, from large power stations to wind turbines to electrical sub-stations in towns and cities.

It prevents electrical accidents and fires.

However, the significant downside to using the gas is that it has the highest global warming potential of any known substance. It is 23,500 times more warming than carbon dioxide (CO2).

Just one kilogram of SF6 warms the Earth to the same extent as 24 people flying London to New York return.

It also persists in the atmosphere for a long time, warming the Earth for at least 1,000 years.

So why are we using more of this powerful warming gas?

The way we make electricity around the world is changing rapidly, with New Zealand's push to electrify in its energy system.

Where once large coal-fired power stations brought energy to millions, the drive to combat climate change and to move away from coal means they are now being replaced by mixed sources of power including wind, solar and gas.

This has resulted in many more connections to the electricity grid, and with EU electricity use could double by 2050, a rise in the number of electrical switches and circuit breakers that are needed to prevent serious accidents.

Collectively, these safety devices are called switchgear. The vast majority use SF6 gas to quench arcs and stop short circuits.

"As renewable projects are getting bigger and bigger, we have had to use it within wind turbines specifically," said Costa Pirgousis, an engineer with Scottish Power Renewables on its new East Anglia wind farm, which doesn't use SF6 in turbines.

"As we are putting in more and more turbines, we need more and more switchgear and, as a result, more SF6 is being introduced into big turbines off shore.

"It's been proven for years and we know how it works, and as a result it is very reliable and very low maintenance for us offshore."

How do we know that SF6 is increasing?

Across the entire UK network of power lines and substations, there are around one million kilograms of SF6 installed.

A study from the University of Cardiff found that across all transmission and distribution networks, the amount used was increasing by 30-40 tonnes per year.

This rise was also reflected across Europe with total emissions from the 28 member states in 2017 equivalent to 6.73 million tonnes of CO2. That's the same as the emissions from 1.3 million extra cars on the road for a year.

Researchers at the University of Bristol who monitor concentrations of warming gases in the atmosphere say they have seen significant rises in the last 20 years.

"We make measurements of SF6 in the background atmosphere," said Dr Matt Rigby, reader in atmospheric chemistry at Bristol.

"What we've seen is that the levels have increased substantially, and we've seen almost a doubling of the atmospheric concentration in the last two decades."

How does SF6 get into the atmosphere?

The most important means by which SF6 gets into the atmosphere is from leaks in the electricity industry.

Electrical company Eaton, which manufactures switchgear without SF6, says its research indicates that for the full life-cycle of the product, leaks could be as high as 15% - much higher than many other estimates.

Louis Schaeffer, electrical business manager at Eaton, said: "The newer gear has very low leak rates but the key question is do you have newer gear?

"We looked at all equipment and looked at the average of all those leak rates, and we didn't see people taking into account the filling of the gas. Plus, we looked at how you recycle it and return it and also included the catastrophic leaks."

How damaging to the climate is this gas?

Concentrations in the atmosphere are very small right now, just a fraction of the amount of CO2 in the air.

However, the global installed base of SF6 is expected to grow by 75% by 2030, as data-driven electricity demand surges worldwide.

Another concern is that SF6 is a synthetic gas and isn't absorbed or destroyed naturally. It will all have to be replaced and destroyed to limit the impact on the climate.

Developed countries are expected to report every year to the UN on how much SF6 they use, but developing countries do not face any restrictions on use.

Right now, scientists are detecting concentrations in the atmosphere that are 10 times the amount declared by countries in their reports. Scientists say this is not all coming from countries like India, China and South Korea.

One study found that the methods used to calculate emissions in richer countries "severely under-reported" emissions over the past two decades.

Why hasn't this been banned?

SF6 comes under a group of human-produced substances known as F-gases. The European Commission tried to prohibit a number of these environmentally harmful substances, including gases in refrigeration and air conditioning, back in 2014.

But they faced strong opposition from industries across Europe.

"In the end, the electrical industry lobby was too strong and we had to give in to them," said Dutch Green MEP Bas Eickhout, who was responsible for the attempt to regulate F-gases.

"The electric sector was very strong in arguing that if you want an energy transition, and you have to shift more to electricity, you will need more electric devices. And then you also will need more SF6.

"They used the argument that otherwise the energy transition would be slowed down."

What do regulator and electrical companies say about the gas?

Everyone is trying to reduce their dependence on the gas, and US control efforts suggest targeted policies can drive declines, as it is universally recognised as harmful to the climate.

In the UK, energy regulator Ofgem says it is working with utilities to try to limit leaks of the gas.

"We are using a range of tools to make sure that companies limit their use of SF6, a potent greenhouse gas, where this is in the interest of energy consumers," an Ofgem spokesperson told BBC News.

"This includes funding innovation trials and rewarding companies to research and find alternatives, setting emissions targets, rewarding companies that beat those targets, and penalising those that miss them."

Are there alternatives - and are they very expensive?

The question of alternatives to SF6 has been contentious over recent years.

For high-voltage applications, experts say there are very few solutions that have been rigorously tested.

"There is no real alternative that is proven," said Prof Manu Haddad from the school of engineering at Cardiff University.

"There are some that are being proposed now but to prove their operation over a long period of time is a risk that many companies don't want to take."

Medium voltage operations there are several tried-and-tested materials. Some in the industry say that the conservative nature of the electrical industry is the key reason that few want to change to a less harmful alternative.

"I will tell you, everyone in this industry knows you can do this; there is not a technical reason not to do it," said Louis Schaffer from Eaton.

"It's not really economic; it's more a question that change takes effort and if you don't have to, you won't do it."

Some companies are feeling the winds of change

Sitting in the North Sea some 43km from the Suffolk coast, Scottish Power Renewables has installed one of world's biggest wind farms, in line with a sustainable electric planet vision, where the turbines will be free of SF6 gas.

East Anglia One will see 102 of these towering generators erected, with the capacity to produce up to 714MW (megawatts) of power by 2020, enough to supply half a million homes.

Previously, an installation like this would have used switchgear supplied with SF6, to prevent the electrical accidents that can lead to fires.

Each turbine would normally have contained around 5kg of SF6, which, if it leaked into the atmosphere, would add the equivalent of around 117 tonnes of carbon dioxide. This is roughly the same as the annual emissions from 25 cars.

"In this case we are using a combination of clean air and vacuum technology within the turbine. It allows us to still have a very efficient, reliable, high-voltage network but to also be environmentally friendly," said Costa Pirgousis from Scottish Power Renewables.

"Once there are viable alternatives on the market, there is no reason not to use them. In this case, we've got a viable alternative and that's why we are using it."

But even for companies that are trying to limit the use of SF6, there are still limitations. At the heart of East Anglia One sits a giant offshore substation to which all 102 turbines will connect. It still uses significant quantities of the highly warming gas.

What happens next ?

The EU will review the use of SF6 next year and will examine whether alternatives are available. However, even the most optimistic experts don't think that any ban is likely to be put in place before 2025.

Related News

• Electricity Forum News

• Climate Change News

NECEC Clean Energy Connect advances with Maine DEP permits, Hydro-Québec contracts, and rigorous transmission line mitigation, including tapered vegetation, culvert upgrades, and forest conservation, delivering low-carbon power, broadband fiber, and projected ratepayer savings.

Key Points

A Maine transmission project delivering Hydro-Québec power with strict DEP mitigation, lower bills, and added broadband.

✅ DEP permits mandate tapered vegetation, culvert upgrades, land conservation

✅ Hydro-Québec to supply 9.55 TWh/yr via MA contracts; bill savings 2-4%

✅ Added broadband fiber in Somerset and Franklin; local tax benefits

The Maine DEP reviewed the Clean Energy Connect project for more than two years, while regional interest in cross-border transmission continued to grow, before issuing permits that included additional environmental mitigation elements.

"Collectively, the requirements of the permit require an unprecedented level of environmental protection and compensatory land conservation for the construction of a transmission line in the state of Maine," DEP said in a May 11 statement.

Requirements include limits on transmission corridor width, forest preservation, culvert replacement and vegetation management projects, while broader grid programs like vehicle-to-grid integration enhance clean energy utilization across the region.

"In our original proposal we worked hard to develop a project that provided robust mitigation measures to protect the environment," NECEC Transmission CEO Thorn Dickinson said in a statement. "And through this permitting process, we now have made an exceedingly good project even better for Maine."

NECEC will be built on land owned or controlled by Central Maine Power. The 53 miles of new corridor on working forest land will use a new clearing technique for tapered vegetation, while the remainder of the project follows existing power lines.

Environmentalists said they agreed with the decision, and the mitigation measures state regulators took, noting similar momentum behind new wind investments in other parts of Canada.

"Building new ways to deliver low-carbon energy to our region is a critical piece of tackling the climate crisis," CLF Senior Attorney Phelps Turner said in a statement. "DEP was absolutely right to impose significant environmental conditions on this project and ensure that it does not harm critical wildlife areas."

Once complete, Turner said the transmission line will allow the region "to retire dirty fossil fuel plants in the coming years, which is a win for our health and our climate."

The Massachusetts Department of Public Utilities in June 2019 advanced the project by approving contracts for the state's utilities to purchase 9,554,940 MWh annually from Hydro-Quebec. Officials said the project is expected to provide approximately 2% to 4% savings on monthly energy bills.

Total net benefits to Massachusetts ratepayers over the 20-year contract, including both direct and indirect benefits, are expected to be approximately $4 billion, according to the state's estimates.

NECEC "will also deliver significant economic benefits to Maine and the region, including lower electricity prices, increased local real estate taxes and reduced energy costs with examples like battery-backed community microgrids demonstrating local resilience, expanded fiber optic cable for broadband service in Somerset and Franklin counties and funding of economic development for Western Maine," project developers said in a statement.​

Related News

• Electricity Forum News

• EV Infrastructure News

Nuclear Power Resilience During COVID-19 shows low-carbon electricity supporting renewables integration with grid flexibility, reliability, and inertia, sustaining decarbonization, stable baseload, and system security while prices fell and demand dropped across markets.

Key Points

It shows nuclear plants providing reliable, low-carbon power and supporting grid stability despite demand declines.

✅ Low prices challenge investment; lifetime extensions are cost-effective.

✅ Nuclear provides inertia, reliability, and dispatchable capacity.

✅ Market reforms should reward flexibility and grid services.

The COVID-19 pandemic has transformed the operation of power systems across the globe, including European responses that many argue accelerated the transition, and offered a glimpse of a future electricity mix dominated by low carbon sources.

The performance of nuclear power, in particular, demonstrates how it can support the transition to a resilient, clean energy system well beyond the COVID-19 recovery phase, and its role in net-zero pathways is increasingly highlighted by analysts today.

Restrictions on economic and social activity during the COVID-19 outbreak have led to an unprecedented and sustained decline in demand for electricity in many countries, in the order of 10% or more relative to 2019 levels over a period of a few months, thereby creating challenging conditions for both electricity generators and system operators (Fig. 1). The recent Sustainable Recovery Report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) projects a 5% reduction in global electricity usage for the entire year 2020, with a record 5.7% decline foreseen in the United States alone. The sustainable economic recovery will be discussed at today's IEA Clean Energy Transitions Summit, where Fatih Birol's call to keep options open will be prominent as IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi participates.

Electricity generation from fossil fuels has been hard hit, due to relatively high operating costs compared to nuclear power and renewables, as well as simple price-setting mechanisms on electricity markets. By contrast, low-carbon electricity prevailed during these extraordinary circumstances, with the contribution of renewable electricity rising in a number of countries as analyses see renewables eclipsing coal by 2025, due to an obligation on transmission system operators to schedule and dispatch renewable electricity ahead of other generators, as well as due to favourable weather conditions.

Nuclear power generation also proved to be resilient, reliable and adaptable. The nuclear industry rapidly implemented special measures to cope with the pandemic, avoiding the need to shut down plants due to the effects of COVID-19 on the workforce or supply chains. Nuclear generators also swiftly adapted to the changed market conditions. For example, EDF Energy was able to respond to the need of the UK grid operator by curtailing sporadically the generation of its Sizewell B reactor and maintain a cost-efficient and secure electricity service for consumers.

Despite the nuclear industry's performance during the pandemic, faced with significant decreases in demand, many generators have still needed to reduce their overall output appreciably, for example in France, Sweden, Ukraine, the UK and to a lesser extent Germany (Fig. 2), even as the nuclear decline debate continues in Europe. Declining demand in France up to the end of March already contributed to a 1% drop in first quarter revenues at EDF, with nuclear output more than 9% lower than in the year before. Similarly, Russia's Rosatom experienced a significant demand contraction in April and May, contributing to an 11% decline in revenues for the first five months of the year.

Overall, the competitiveness and resilience of low carbon technologies have resulted in higher market shares for nuclear, solar and wind power in many countries since the start of lockdowns (Fig. 3), and low-emissions sources to meet demand growth over the next three years. The share of nuclear generation in South Korea rose by almost 9 percentage points during the pandemic, while in the UK, nuclear played a big part in almost eliminating coal generation for a period of two months. For the whole of 2020, the US Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook sees the share of nuclear generation increasing by more than one percentage point compared to 2019. In China, power production decreased during January-February 2020 by more than 8% year on year: coal power decreased by nearly 9%, hydropower by nearly 12%. Nuclear has proved more resilient with a 2% reduction only. The benefits of these higher shares of clean energy in terms of reduced emissions of greenhouse gases and other air pollutants have been on full display worldwide over the past months.

Challenges for the future

Despite the demonstrated performance of a cleaner energy system through the crisis - including the capacity of existing nuclear power plants to deliver a competitive, reliable, and low carbon electricity service when needed - both short- and long-term challenges remain.

In the shorter term, the collapse in electricity demand has accelerated recent falls in electricity prices, particularly in Europe (Fig. 4), from already economically unsustainable levels. According to Standard and Poor's Midyear Update, the large price drops in Europe result from not only COVID-19 lockdown measures but also collapsing demand due to an unusually warm winter, increased supply from renewables in a context of lower gas prices and CO2 allowances . Such low prices further exacerbate the challenging environment faced by many electricity generators, including nuclear plants. These may impede the required investments in the clean energy transition, with longer term consequences on the achievement of climate goals.

For nuclear power, maintaining and extending the operation of existing plants is essential to support and accelerate the transition to low carbon energy systems. With a supportive investment environment, a 10-20 year lifetime extension can be realized at an average cost of US $30-40/MW*h, making it among the most cost-effective low-carbon options, while also maintaining dispatchable capacity and lowering the overall cost of the clean energy transition. The IEA Sustainable Recovery report indicates that without such extensions 40% of the nuclear fleet in developed economies may be retired within a decade, adding around US$ 80 billion per year to electricity bills. The IEA note the potential for nuclear plant maintenance and extension programmes to support recovery measures by generating significant economic activity and employment.

The need for flexibility

New nuclear power projects can provide similar economic and environmental benefits and applications beyond electricity, but will be all the more challenging to finance without strong policy support and more substantive power market reforms, including improved frameworks for remunerating reliability, flexibility and other services. The need for flexibility in electricity generation and system operation - a trend accelerated by the crisis - will increasingly characterize future energy systems over the medium to longer term.

Looking further ahead, while generators and system operators successfully responded to the crisis, the observed decline in fossil fuel generation draws attention to additional grid stability challenges likely to emerge further into the energy transition. Heavy rotating steam and gas turbines provide mechanical inertia to an electricity system, thereby maintaining its balance. Replacing these capacities with variable renewables may result in greater instability, poorer power quality and increased incidence of blackouts. Large nuclear power plants along with other technologies can fill this role, alleviating the risk of supply disruptions in fully decarbonized electricity systems.

The challenges created by COVID-19 have also brought into focus the need to ensure resilience is built-in to future energy systems to cope with a broader range of external shocks, including more variable and extreme weather patterns expected from climate change.

The performance of nuclear power during the crisis provides a timely reminder of its ongoing contribution and future potential in creating a more sustainable, reliable, low carbon energy system.

Data sources for electricity demand, generation and prices: European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (Europe), Ukrenergo National Power Company (Ukraine), Power System Operation Corporation (India), Korea Power Exchange (South Korea), Operador Nacional do Sistema Eletrico (Brazil), Independent Electricity System Operator (Ontario, Canada), EIA (USA). Data cover 1 January to May/June.

Related News

• Electricity Forum News

• Power Generation News

U.S. Power Grid D+ Rating underscores aging infrastructure, rising outages, cyber threats, EMP and solar flare risks, strained transmission lines, vulnerable transformers, and slow permitting, amplifying reliability concerns and resilience needs across national energy systems.

Key Points

ASCE's D+ grade flags aging infrastructure, rising outages, and cyber, EMP, and weather risks needing investment.

✅ Major outages rising; weather remains top disruption driver.

✅ Aging transformers, transmission lines, limited maintenance.

✅ Cybersecurity gaps via smart grid, EV charging, SCADA.

The U.S. power grid just received its “grade card” from the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) and it barely passed.

The overall rating of our antiquated electrical system was a D+. Major power outages in the United States, including widespread blackouts, have grown from 76 in 2007 to 307 in 2011, according to the latest available statistics. The major outage figures do not take into account all of the smaller outages which routinely occur due to seasonal storms.

The American Society of Civil Engineers power grid grade card rating means the energy infrastructure is in “poor to fair condition and mostly below standard, with many elements approaching the end of their service life.” It further means a “large portion of the system exhibits significant deterioration” with a “strong risk of failure.”

Such a designation is not reassuring and validates those who purchased solar generators over the past several years.

#google#

The vulnerable state of the power grid gets very little play by mainstream media outlets. Concerns about a solar flare or an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) attack instantly sending us back to an 1800s existence are legitimate, but it may not take such an extreme act to render the power grid a useless tangle of wires. The majority of the United States’ infrastructure and public systems evaluated by the ASCE earned a “D” rating. A “C” ranking (public parks, rail and bridges) was the highest grade earned. It would take a total of $3.6 trillion in investments by 2020 to fix everything, the report card stated. To put that number in perspective, the federal government’s budget for all of 2012 was slightly more, $3.7 trillion.

“America relies on an aging electrical grid and pipeline distribution systems, some of which originated in the 1880s,” the report read. “Investment in power transmission has increased since 2005, but ongoing permitting issues, weather events, including summer blackouts that strain local systems, and limited maintenance have contributed to an increasing number of failures and power interruptions. While demand for electricity has remained level, the availability of energy in the form of electricity, natural gas, and oil will become a greater challenge after 2020 as the population increases. Although about 17,000 miles of additional high-voltage transmission lines and significant oil and gas pipelines are planned over the next five years, permitting and siting issues threaten their completion. The electric grid in the United States consists of a system of interconnected power generation, transmission facilities, and distribution facilities.”

Harness the power of the sun when the power goes out…

There are approximately 400,000 miles of electrical transmission lines throughout the United States, and thousands of power generating plants dot the landscape. The ASCE report card also stated that new gas-fired and renewable generation issues increase the need to add new transmission lines. Antiquated power grid equipment has reportedly prompted even more “intermittent” power outages in recent years.

The American Society of Civil Engineers accurately notes that the power grid is more vulnerable to cyber attacks than ever before, including Russian intrusions documented in recent years, and it cites the aging electrical system as the primary culprit. Although the decades-old transformers and other equipment necessary to keep power flowing around America are a major factor in the enhanced vulnerability of the power grid, moving towards a “smart grid” system is not the answer. As previously reported by Off The Grid News, smart grid systems and even electric car charging stations make the power grid more accessible to cyber hackers. During the Hack in the Box Conference in Amsterdam, HP ArcSight Product Manager Ofer Sheaf stated that electric car charging stations are in essence a computer on the street. The roadway fueling stations are linked to the power grid electrical system. If cyber hackers garner access to the power grid via the charging stations, they could stop the flow of power to a specific area or alter energy distribution levels and overload the system.

While a relatively small number of electric car charging stations exist in America now, that soon will change. Ongoing efforts by both federal and state governments to reduce our reliance on fossil fuels have resulted in grants and privately funded vehicle charging station projects. New York Governor Andrew Cuomo in April announced plans to build 360 such electrical stations in his state. A total of 3,000 car charging stations are in the works statewide and are slated for completion over the next five years.

SHIELD ActWeather-related events were the primary cause of power outages from 2007 to 2012, according to the infrastructure report card. Power grid reliability issues are emerging as the greatest threat to the electrical system, with rising attacks on substations compounding the risks. The ASCE grade card also notes that retiring and rotating in “new energy sources” is a “complex” process. Like most items we routinely purchase in our daily lives, many of the components needed to make the power grid functional are not manufactured in the United States.

The SHIELD Act is the first real piece of federal legislation in years drafted to address power grid vulnerabilities. While the single bill will not fix all of the electrical system issues, it is a big step in the right direction – if it ever makes it out of committee. Replacing aging transformers, encasing them in a high-tech version of a Faraday cage, and stockpiling extra units so instant repairs are possible would help preserve one of the nation’s most critical and life-saving pieces of infrastructure after a weather-related incident or man-made disaster.

“Geomagnetic storm environments can develop instantaneously over large geographic footprints,” solar geomagnetic researcher John Kappenman said about the fragile state of the power grid. He was quoted in an Oak Ridge National Laboratory report. “They have the ability to essentially blanket the continent with an intense threat environment and … produce significant collateral damage to critical infrastructures. In contrast to well-conceived design standards that have been successfully applied for more conventional threats, no comprehensive design criteria have ever been considered to check the impact of the geomagnetic storm environments. The design actions that have occurred over many decades have greatly escalated the dangers posed by these storm threats for this critical infrastructure.”

The power grid has morphed in size tenfold during the past 50 years. While solar flares, cyber attacks, and an EMP are perhaps the most extensive and frightening threats to the electrical system, the infrastructure could just as easily fail in large portions due to weather-related events exacerbated by climate change across regions. The power grid is basically a ticking time bomb which will spawn civil unrest, lack of food, clean water, and a multitude of fires if it does go down.

Related News

• Electricity Forum News

• Grid Technologies News

COP24 Climate Talks in Poland gather nearly 200 nations to finalize the Paris Agreement rulebook, advance the Talanoa Dialogue, strengthen emissions reporting and transparency, and align finance, technology transfer, and IPCC science for urgent mitigation.

Key Points

UNFCCC summit in Katowice to finalize Paris rules, enhance transparency, and drive stronger emissions cuts.

✅ Paris rulebook on reporting, transparency, markets, and timelines

✅ Talanoa Dialogue to assess gaps and raise ambition by 2020

✅ Finance and tech transfer for developing countries under UNFCCC

Delegates from nearly 200 countries have assembled this month in Katowice, Poland — the heart of coal country — to try to move the ball forward on battling climate change.

It’s now the 24th annual meeting, or “COP” — conference of the parties — under the landmark U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change, which the United States signed under then-President George H.W. Bush in 1992. More significantly, it’s the third such meeting since nations adopted the Paris climate agreement in 2015, widely seen at the time as a landmark moment in which, at last, developed and developing countries would share a path toward cutting greenhouse gas emissions, as Obama's clean energy push sought to lock in momentum.

But the surge of optimism that came with Paris has faded lately. The United States, the second largest greenhouse gas emitter, said it would withdraw from the agreement, though it has not formally done so yet. Many other countries are off target when it comes to meeting their initial round of Paris promises — promises that are widely acknowledged to be too weak to begin with. And emissions have begun to rise after a brief hiatus that had lent some hope of progress.

The latest science, meanwhile, is pointing toward increasingly dire outcomes. The amount of global warming that the world already has seen — 1 degree Celsius, 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit — has upended the Arctic, is killing coral reefs and may have begun to destabilize a massive part of Antarctica. A new report from the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), requested by the countries that assembled in Paris to be timed for this year’s meeting, finds a variety of increasingly severe effects as soon as a rise of 1.5 degrees Celsius arrives — an outcome that can’t be avoided without emissions cuts so steep that they would require societal transformations without any known historical parallel, the panel found.

It’s in this context that countries are meeting in Poland, with expectations and stakes high.

So what’s on the agenda in Poland?

The answer starts with the Paris agreement, which was negotiated three years ago, has been signed by 197 countries and is a mere 27 pages long. It covers a lot, laying out a huge new regime not only for the world as a whole to cut its greenhouse gas emissions, but for each individual country to regularly make new emissions-cutting pledges, strengthen them over time, report emissions to the rest of the world and much more. It also addresses financial obligations that developed countries have to developing countries, including how to achieve clean and universal electricity at scale, and how technologies will be transferred to help that.

But those 27 pages leave open to interpretation many fine points for how it will all work. So in Poland, countries are performing a detailed annotation of the Paris agreement, drafting a “rule book” that will span hundreds of pages.

That may sound bureaucratic, but it’s key to addressing many of the flash points. For instance, it will be hard for countries to trust that their fellow nations are cutting emissions without clear standards for reporting and vetting. Not everybody is ready to accept a process like the one followed in the United States, which not only publishes its emissions totals but also has an independent review of the findings.

“A number of the developing countries are resisting that kind of model for themselves. They see it as an intrusion on their sovereignty,” said Alden Meyer, director of strategy and policy at the Union of Concerned Scientists and one of the many participants in Poland this week. “That’s going to be a pretty tough issue at the end of the day.”

It’s hardly the only one. Also unclear is what countries will do after the time frames on their current emissions-cutting promises are up, which for many is 2025 or 2030. Will all countries then start reporting newer and more ambitious promises every five years? Every 10 years?

That really matters when five years of greenhouse gas emissions — currently about 40 billion tons of carbon dioxide annually — are capable of directly affecting the planet’s temperature.

What can we expect each day?

The conference is in its second week, when higher-level players — basically, the equivalent of cabinet-level leaders in the United States — are in Katowice to advance the negotiations.

As this happens, several big events are on the agenda. On Tuesday and Wednesday is the “Talanoa Dialogue,” which will bring together world leaders in a series of group meetings to discuss these key questions: “Where are we? Where do we want to go? How do we get there?”

Friday is the last day of the conference, but pros know these events tend to run long. On Friday — or after — we will be waiting for an overall statement or decision from the meeting which may signal how much has been achieved.

What is the “Talanoa Dialogue”?

“Talanoa” is a word used in Fiji and in many other Pacific islands to refer to “the sharing of ideas, skills and experience through storytelling.” This is the process that organizers settled on to fulfill a plan formed in Paris in 2015.

That year, along with signing the Paris agreement, nations released a decision that in 2018 there should be a “facilitative dialogue" among the countries “to take stock” of where their efforts stood to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This was important because going into that Paris meeting, it was already clear that countries' promises were not strong enough to hold global warming below a rise of 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial temperatures.

This dialogue, in the Talanoa process, was meant to prompt reflection and maybe even soul searching about what more would have to be done. Throughout the year, “inputs” to the Talanoa dialogue — most prominently, the recent report by the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change on the meaning and consequences of 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming —have been compiled and synthesized. Now, over two days in Poland, countries' ministers will assemble to share stories in small groups about what is working and what is not and to assess where the world as a whole is on achieving the required greenhouse gas emissions reductions.

What remains to be seen is whether this process will culminate in any kind of product or statement that calls clearly for immediate, strong ramping up of climate change promises across the world.

With the clock ticking, will countries do anything to increase their ambition at this meeting?

If negotiating the Paris rule book sounds disappointingly technical, well, you’re not the only one feeling that way. Pressure is mounting for countries to accomplish something more than that in Poland — to at minimum give a strong signal that they understand that the science is looking worse and worse, and the world’s progress on the global energy transition isn’t matching that outlook.

“The bigger issue is how we’re going to get to an outcome on greater ambition,” said Lou Leonard, senior vice president for climate and energy at the World Wildlife Fund, who is in Poland observing the talks. “And I think the first week was not kind on moving that part of the agenda forward.”

Most countries are not likely to make new emissions-cutting promises this week. But there are two ways that the meeting could give a strong statement that countries should — or will — come up with new promises at least by 2020. That’s when extremely dramatic emissions cuts would have to start, including progress toward net-zero electricity by mid-century, according to the recent report on 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming.

The first is the aforementioned “Talanoa dialogue” (see above). It’s possible that the outcome of the dialogue could be a statement acknowledging that the world isn’t nearly far enough along and calling for much stronger steps.

There will also be a decision text released for the meeting as a whole, which could potentially send a signal. Leonard said he hopes that would include details for the next steps that will put the world on a better course.

“We have to create milestones, and the politics around it that will pressure countries to do something that quite frankly they don’t want to do,” he said. “It’s not going to be easy. That’s why we need a process that will help make it happen. And make the most of the IPCC report that was designed to come out right now so it could do this for us. That’s why we have it, and it needs to serve that role.”

The United States says it will withdraw from the agreement, so what role is it playing in Poland?

Despite President Trump’s pledge to withdraw, the United States remains in the Paris agreement (for now) and has sent a delegation of 44 people to Poland, largely from the State Department but also from the Environmental Protection Agency, Energy Department and even the White House, while domestically a historic U.S. climate law has recently passed to accelerate clean energy. Many of these career government officials remain deeply engaged in hashing out details of the agreement.

Still, the country as a whole is being cast in an antagonistic role in the talks.

Related News

• Electricity Forum News

• Climate Change News

Martha's Vineyard 100% Renewable Energy advances electrification across EVs, heat pumps, distributed solar, offshore wind, microgrids, and battery storage, cutting emissions, boosting efficiency, and strengthening grid resilience for storms and sea-level rise.

Key Points

It is an islandwide plan to electrify transport and buildings using wind, solar, storage, and a modern resilient grid.

✅ Electrify transport: EV adoption and SSA hybrid-electric ferries.

✅ Deploy heat pumps for efficient heating and cooling in buildings.

✅ Modernize the grid: distributed solar, batteries, microgrids, VPP.

Over the past year, it has become increasingly clear that climate change is accelerating. Here in coastal New England, annual temperatures and precipitation have risen more quickly than expected, tidal flooding is now commonplace, and storms have increased in frequency and intensity. The window for avoiding the worst consequences of a climate-changed planet is closing.

At their recent special town meeting, Oak Bluffs citizens voted to approve the 100 per cent renewable Martha’s Vineyard warrant article; now, all six towns have adopted the same goals for fossil fuel reduction and green electricity over the next two decades. Establishing these targets for the adoption of renewable energy, though, is only an initial step. Town and regional master plans for energy transformation are being developed, but this is a whole-community effort as well. Now is the time for action.

There is much to do to combat climate change, but our most important task is to transition our energy system from one heavily dependent on fossil fuels to one that is based on clean electricity. The good news is that this can be accomplished with currently available technology, and can be done in an economically efficient manner.

Electrification not only significantly lowers greenhouse gas emissions, but also is a powerful energy efficiency measure. So even though our detailed Island energy model indicates that eliminating all (or almost all) fossil fuel use will mean our electricity use will more than double, posing challenges for state power grids in some regions, our overall annual energy consumption will be significantly lower.

So what do we specifically need to do?

The primary targets for electrification are transportation (roughly 60 peer cent of current fossil fuel use on Martha’s Vineyard) and building heating and cooling (40 per cent).

Over the past two years, the increase in the number of electric vehicle models available across a wide range of price points has been remarkable — sedans, SUVs, crossovers, pickup trucks, even transit vans. When rebates and tax credits are considered, they are affordable. Range anxiety is being addressed both by increases in vehicle performance and the growing availability of charging locations (other than at home, which will be the predominant place for Islanders to refuel) and, over time, enable vehicle-to-grid support for our local system. An EV purchase should be something everyone should seriously consider when replacing a current fossil vehicle.

The elephant in the transportation sector room is the Steamship Authority. The SSA today uses roughly 10 per cent of the fossil fuel attributable to Martha’s Vineyard, largely but not totally in the ferries. The technology needed for fully electric short-haul vessels has been under development in Scandinavia for a number of years and fully electric ferries are in operation there. A conservative approach for the SSA would be to design new boats to be hybrid diesel-electric, retrofittable to plug-in hybrids to allow for shoreside charging infrastructure to be planned and deployed. Plug-in hybrid propulsion could result in a significant reduction in emissions — perhaps as much as 95 per cent, per the long-range plan for the Washington State ferries. While the SSA has contracted for an alternative fuel study for its next boat, given the long life of the vessels, an electrification master plan is needed soon.

For building heating and cooling, the answer for electrification is heat pumps, both for new construction and retrofits. These devices move heat from outside to inside (in the winter) or inside to outside (summer), and are increasingly integrated into connected home energy systems for smarter control. They are also remarkably efficient (at least three times more efficient than burning oil or propane), and today’s technology allows their operation even in sub-zero outside temperatures. Energy costs for electric heating via heat pumps on the Vineyard are significantly below either oil or propane, and up-front costs are comparable for new construction. For new construction and when replacing an existing system, heat pumps are the smart choice, and air conditioning for the increasingly hot summers comes with the package.

A frequent objection to electrification is that fossil-fueled generation emits greenhouse gases — thus a so-called green grid is required in order to meet our targets. The renewable energy fraction of our grid-supplied electricity is today about 30 per cent; by 2030, under current legislation that fraction will reach 54 per cent, and by 2040, 77 per cent. Proposed legislation will bring us even closer to our 2040 goals. The Vineyard Wind project will strongly contribute to the greening of our electricity supply, and our local solar generation (almost 10 per cent of our overall electricity use at this point) is non-negligible.

A final important facet of our energy system transformation is resilience. We are dependent today on our electricity supply, and this dependence will grow. As we navigate the challenges of climate change, with increasingly more frequent and more serious storms, 2021 electricity lessons underscore that resilience of electricity supply is of paramount importance. In many ways, today’s electricity distribution system is basically the same approach developed by Edison in the late 19th century. In partnership with our electric utility, we need to modernize the grid to achieve our resiliency goals.

While the full scope of this modernization effort is still being developed, the outline is clear. First, we need to increase the amount of energy generated on-Island — to perhaps 25 per cent of our total electricity use. This will be via distributed energy resources (in the form of distributed solar and battery installations as well as community solar projects) and the application of advanced grid control systems. For emergency critical needs, the concept of local microgrids that are detachable from the main grid when that grid suffers an outage are an approach that is technically sound and being deployed elsewhere. Grid coordination of distributed resources by the utility allows for handling of peak power demand; in the early 2030s this could result in what is known as a virtual power plant on the Island.

The adoption of the 100 renewable Martha’s Vineyard warrant articles is an important milestone for our community. While the global and national efforts in the climate crisis may sometimes seem fraught, we can take some considerable pride in what we have accomplished so far and will accomplish in coming years. As with many change efforts, the old catch-phrase applies: think globally, act locally.
 

Related News

• Electricity Forum News

• EV Infrastructure News