Will power grid stall plug-in cars?

China Nuclear Power Expansion accelerates with reactor approvals, Hualong One and CAP1400 deployments, rising gigawatts, clean energy targets, carbon neutrality goals, and grid reliability benefits to meet coastal demand and reduce emissions.

Key Points

An accelerated reactor buildout to add clean capacity, curb emissions, and improve grid reliability nationwide.

✅ Approvals surge for Hualong One and CAP1400 third-gen reactors

✅ Capacity targets approach 100 GW installed by 2030

✅ Supports carbon neutrality, energy security, and lower costs

While China has failed to accomplish its 2020 nuclear target of 58 gigawatts under operation and 30 GW under construction, insiders are optimistic about prospects for the nonpolluting energy resource in China over the next five years as the country has stepped up nuclear approvals and construction since 2020.

China expects to record 49 operating nuclear facilities and capacity of more than 51 GW as of the end of 2020. Nuclear power currently makes up around 2.4 percent of the country's total installed energy capacity, said the China Nuclear Energy Association. There are 19 facilities that have received approval and are under construction, with capacity exceeding 20 GW, ranking top globally as nuclear project milestones worldwide continue, it said.

"With surging power demand from coastal regions, more domestic technology, including next-gen nuclear, will be adopted with installations likely nearing 100 GW by the end of 2030," said Wei Hanyang, a power market analyst at Bloomberg New Energy.

Following the Fukushima nuclear reactor disaster in 2011 in Japan, China has, like many countries including Japan, Germany and Switzerland, suspended nuclear power project approvals for a period, including construction of the pilot project of Shidaowan nuclear power plant in Shandong province that uses CAP1400 technology, based on third-generation Westinghouse AP1000 reactor technology.

As China promotes greener development and prioritizes safety and security of nuclear power plant construction, it has pledged to hit peak emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, with electricity meeting 60% of energy use by 2060 according to Shell, the Shidaowan plant, originally scheduled to launch construction in 2014 and enter service in 2018, is expected to start fuel loading and begin operations this year.

Joseph Jacobelli, an independent energy analyst and executive vice-president for Asia business at Cenfura Ltd, a smart energy services company, said recent developments confirm China's ongoing commitment to further boost the country's nuclear sector.

"The nuclear plants can help meet China's goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions as the country reduces coal power production and provide air pollution-free energy at a lower cost to consumers. China's need for clean energy means that nuclear power generation definitely has an important place in the long-term energy mix," Jacobelli said.

He added that Chinese companies' cost control capabilities and technological advancements, and operational performance improvements such as the AP1000 refueling outage record, are also likely to continue providing domestic companies with advantages, as the cost per kilowatt-hour is very important, especially as solar, wind and other clean energy solutions become even cheaper over the next few years.

China approved two nuclear projects in 2020- Hainan Changjiang nuclear power plant unit 2 and Zhejiang San'ao nuclear power plant unit 1. This is after the country launched three new nuclear power plants in 2019 in the provinces of Shandong, Fujian and Guangdong, which marked the end of a moratorium on new projects.

The Zhejiang San'ao nuclear power plant saw concrete poured for unit 1 on Dec 31, according to its operator China General Nuclear. It will be the first of six Hualong One pressurized water reactors to be built at the site as well as the first Chinese nuclear power plant project to involve private capital.

Jointly invested, constructed and operated by CGN, Zheneng Electric Power, Wenzhou Nuclear Energy Development, Cangnan County Haixi Construction Development and Geely Maijie Investment, the project creates a new model of mixed ownership of nuclear power enterprises, said CGN.

The world's first Hualong One reactor at unit 5 of China National Nuclear Corp's Fuqing nuclear plant in Fujian province was connected to the grid in November. With the start of work on San'ao unit 1, China now has further seven Hualong One units under construction, including Fuqing 6, which is scheduled to go online this year.

CNNC is also constructing one unit at Taipingling in Guangdong and two at Zhangzhou in Fujian province. CGN is building two at its Fangchenggang site in Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region. In addition, two Hualong One units are under construction at Karachi in Pakistan, while CGN proposes to use a UK version of the Hualong One at Bradwell in the United Kingdom, aligning with the country's green industrial revolution strategy.

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Baltic States EU Grid Synchronization strengthens energy independence and electricity security, ending IPS/UPS reliance. Backed by interconnectors like LitPol Link, NordBalt, and Estlink, it aligns with NATO interests and safeguards against subsea infrastructure threats.

Key Points

A shift by Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania to join the EU grid, boosting energy security and reducing Russian leverage.

✅ Synchronized with EU grid on Feb 9, 2025 after islanding tests.

✅ New interconnectors: LitPol Link, NordBalt, Estlink upgrades.

✅ Reduces IPS/UPS risks; bolsters NATO and critical infrastructure.

In a landmark move towards greater energy independence and European integration, the Baltic nations of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have officially disconnected from Russia's electricity grid, a path also seen in Ukraine's rapid grid link to the European system. This decisive action, completed in February 2025, not only ends decades of reliance on Russian energy but also enhances the region's energy security and aligns with broader geopolitical shifts.

Historical Context and Strategic Shift

Historically, the Baltic states were integrated into the Russian-controlled IPS/UPS power grid, a legacy of their Soviet past. However, in recent years, these nations have sought to extricate themselves from Russian influence, aiming to synchronize their power systems with the European Union (EU) grid. This transition gained urgency following Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014 and further intensified after the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, as demonstrated by Russian strikes on Ukraine's grid that underscored energy vulnerability.

The Disconnection Process

The process culminated on February 8, 2025, when Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania severed their electrical ties with Russia. For approximately 24 hours, the Baltic states operated in isolation, conducting rigorous tests to ensure system stability and resilience, echoing winter grid protection efforts seen elsewhere. On February 9, they successfully synchronized with the EU's continental power grid, marking a historic shift towards European energy integration.

Geopolitical and Security Implications

This transition holds significant geopolitical weight. By disconnecting from Russia's power grid, the Baltic states reduce potential leverage that Russia could exert through energy supplies. The move also aligns with NATO's strategic interests, enhancing the security of critical infrastructure in the region, amid concerns about Russian hacking of US utilities that highlight cyber risks.

Economic and Technical Challenges

The shift was not without challenges. The Baltic states had to invest heavily in infrastructure to ensure compatibility with the EU grid and navigate regional market pressures such as a Nordic grid blockade affecting transmission capacity. This included constructing new interconnectors and upgrading existing facilities. For instance, the LitPol Link between Lithuania and Poland, the NordBalt cable connecting Lithuania and Sweden, and the Estlink between Estonia and Finland were crucial in facilitating this transition.

Impact on Kaliningrad

The disconnection has left Russia's Kaliningrad exclave isolated from the Russian power grid, relying solely on imports from Lithuania. While Russia claims to have measures in place to maintain power stability in the region, the long-term implications remain uncertain.

Ongoing Security Concerns

The Baltic Sea region has experienced heightened security concerns, particularly regarding subsea cables and pipelines. Increased incidents of damage to these infrastructures have raised alarms about potential sabotage, including a Finland cable damage investigation into a suspected Russian-linked vessel. Authorities continue to investigate these incidents, emphasizing the need for robust protection of critical energy infrastructure.

The successful disconnection and synchronization represent a significant step in the Baltic states' journey towards full integration with European energy markets. This move is expected to enhance energy security, promote economic growth, and solidify geopolitical ties with the EU and NATO. As the region continues to modernize its energy infrastructure, ongoing vigilance against security threats will be paramount, as recent missile and drone attacks on Kyiv's grid demonstrate.

The Baltic states' decision to disconnect from Russia's power grid and synchronize with the European energy system is a pivotal moment in their post-Soviet transformation. This transition not only signifies a break from historical dependencies but also reinforces their commitment to European integration and collective security. As these nations continue to navigate complex geopolitical landscapes, their strides towards energy independence serve as a testament to their resilience and strategic vision.

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Washington County solar farm incentives aim to steer projects to industrial sites with tax breaks, underground grid connections, decommissioning bonds, and wildlife corridors, balancing zoning, historic preservation, and Maryland renewable energy mandates.

Key Points

Policies steer solar to industrial sites with tax breaks, buried lines, and bonds, aligning with zoning and state goals.

✅ Tax breaks to favor rooftops and parking canopies

✅ Bury new grid lines to shift projects to industrial parks

✅ Require decommissioning bonds and wildlife corridors

Incentives for establishing solar farms at industrial spaces instead of on prime farmland are among the ideas the Washington County Planning Commission is recommending for the county to update its policies regarding solar farms.

Potential incentives would include tax breaks on solar equipment and requiring developers to put power-grid connections and line extensions underground, a move tied to grid upgrade cost debates in other regions, Planning Commission members said during a Monday meeting.

The tax break could make it more attractive for a developer to put a solar farm on a roof or over a parking lot, similar to California's building-solar requirement policies that favor rooftop generation, which could cost more than putting it on farmland, said Commission member Dave Kline, who works for FirstEnergy.

Requiring a company to bury new transmission lines could steer them to industrial or business parks where, theoretically, transmission lines are more readily available, Kline said Wednesday in a phone interview.

Chairman Clint Wiley suggested talking to industrial property owners to create a list of industrial sites that make sense for a solar site, which could generate extra income for the property owner.

Commission members also talked about requiring a wildlife corridor. Anne Arundel County requires such a corridor if a solar site is over 15 acres, according to Jill Baker, deputy director of planning and zoning. The solar site is broken into sections so animals such as deer can get through, she said.

However, that means the solar farm would take up more agricultural land, Commission member Jeremiah Weddle said. Weddle, a farmer, has repeatedly voiced concerns about solar farms using prime farmland.

County zoning law already states solar farms are prohibited in Rural Legacy Areas, Priority Preservation Areas, and within Antietam Overlay zones that preserve the Antietam National Battlefield viewshed. They also cannot be built on land with permanent preservation easements, Baker said.

However, a big reason county officials are looking to strengthen county policies for solar generating systems, or solar farms, is a recent court decision that ruled the Maryland Public Service Commission can preempt county zoning law when it comes to large solar farms.

County zoning law defines a solar energy generating system as a solar facility, with multiple solar arrays, tied into the power grid and whose primary purpose is to generate power to distribute and/or sell into the public utility grid rather than consuming that power on site.

The Maryland Court of Appeals ruled in July that the Public Service Commission can preempt local zoning regarding solar farms larger than 2 megawatts. But the ruling also stated local government is a "significant participant in the process" and the state commission must give "due consideration" to local zoning laws.

County officials are looking at recommendations for solar farms, whether they are over 2 megawatts or not.

Solar farms are a popular issue statewide, especially with Maryland solar subscriptions expanding, and were discussed at a recent Maryland Association of Counties meeting for planners, Planning and Zoning Director Stephen Goodrich said.

The thinking is the best way for counties to express their opinions about a solar project is to participate in the state commission's local public hearings, where issues like how solar owners are paid often arise, Goodrich said. Another popular idea is for the county to continue to follow its process, which requires a public hearing for a special exception to establish a solar farm. That will help the county form an opinion, on individual cases, to offer the state commission, he said.

Recommendations discussed by the Planning Commission include:

A break on personal property taxes, which is on equipment, including affordable battery storage that can firm output, to steer developers away from areas where the county doesn't want solar farms. The Board of County Commissioners have been split on tax-break agreements for solar farms, with a majority recently granting a few.

Protecting valuable historic sites.

Requiring a decommissioning bond for removing the equipment at the end of the solar farm's life. The bond is protection in case the company goes bankrupt. The county commissioners have been making such a bond a requirement when granting recent tax breaks.

Looking at allowing solar farms in stormwater-management areas.

Other counties, particularly in Western Maryland and on the Eastern Shore, are having issues with solar farms even as research to improve solar and wind advances, because land is cheaper and there are wide-open spaces, Goodrich said.

Many solar projects are being developed or proposed because state lawmakers passed legislation requiring 50% of electricity produced in the state to come from renewable sources by 2030, and a federal plan to expand solar is also shaping expectations. Of that 50%, 14.5% is to come from solar energy.

In Maryland, the average number of homes that can be powered by 1 megawatt of solar energy is about 110, according to the Solar Energy Industries Association's website.

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Vogtle Units 3 and 4 are Westinghouse AP1000 nuclear reactors under construction in Waynesboro, Georgia, led by Southern Nuclear, Georgia Power, and Bechtel, adding 2,234 MWe of carbon-free baseload power with DOE loan guarantees.

Key Points

Vogtle Units 3 and 4 are AP1000 reactors in Georgia delivering 2,234 MWe of low-carbon baseload electricity.

✅ Each unit: Westinghouse AP1000, 1,117 MWe capacity.

✅ Managed by Southern Nuclear, built by Bechtel.

✅ DOE loan guarantees support financing and risk.

Construction is ongoing for two new nuclear reactors, Units 3 and 4, at Georgia Power's Alvin W. Vogtle Electric Generating Plant in Waynesboro, Ga. the first new nuclear reactors to be constructed in the United Stated in 30 years, mirroring a new U.S. reactor startup that will provide electricity to more than 500,000 homes and businesses once operational.

Construction on Unit 3 started in March 2013 with an expected completion date of November 2021. For Unit 4, work began in November 2013 with a targeted delivery date of November 2022. Each unit houses a Westinghouse AP1000 (Advanced Passive) nuclear reactor that can generate about 1,117 megawatts (MWe). The reactor pressure vessels and steam generators are from Doosan, a South Korean firm.

The pouring of concrete was delayed to 2013 due to the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission issuing a license amendment which permitted the use of higher-strength concrete for the foundations of the reactors, eliminating the need to make additional modifications to reinforcing steel bar.

The work is occurring in the middle of an operational nuclear facility, and the construction area contains many cranes and storage areas for the prefabricated parts being installed. Space also is needed for various trucks making deliveries, especially concrete.

The reactor buildings, circular in shape, are several hundred feet apart from one another and each one has an annex building and a turbine island structure. The estimated total price for the project is expected in the $18.7 billion range. Bechtel Corporation, which built Units 1 and 2, was brought in January 2017 to take over the construction that is being overseen by Southern Nuclear Operating Company (SNOC), which operates the plant.

The project will require the equivalent of 3,375 miles of sidewalk; the towers for Units 3 and 4 are 60 stories high and have two million pound CA modules; the office space for both units is 300,000 sq. ft.; and there are more than 8,000 construction workers over 30 percent being military veterans. The new reactors will create 800 permanent jobs.

Southern Nuclear and Georgia Power took over management of the construction project in 2017 after Westinghouse's Chapter 11 bankruptcy. The plant, built in the late 1980s with Unit 1 becoming operational in 1987 and Unit 2 in 1989, is jointly owned by Georgia Power (45.7 percent), Oglethorpe Power Corporation (30 percent), Municipal Electric Authority of Georgia (22.7 percent) and Dalton Utilities (1.6 percent).

"Significant progress has been made on the construction of Vogtle 3 and 4 since the transition to Southern Nuclear following the Westinghouse bankruptcy," said Paul Bowers, Chairman, President and CEO of Georgia Power. "While there will always be challenges in building the first new nuclear units in this country in more than 30 years, we remain focused on reducing project risk and maintaining the current project momentum in order to provide our customers with a new carbon-free energy source that will put downward pressure on rates for 60 to 80 years."

The Vogtle and Hatch nuclear plants currently provide more than 20 percent of Georgia's annual electricity needs. Vogtle will be the only four-unit nuclear facility in the country. The energy is needed to meet the rising demand for electricity as the state expects to have more than four million new residents by 2030.

The plant's expansion is the largest ongoing construction project in Georgia and one of the largest in the state's history, while comparable refurbishments such as the Bruce reactor overhaul progress in Canada. Last March an agreement was signed to secure approximately $1.67 billion in additional Department of Energy loan guarantees. Georgia Power previously secured loan guarantees of $3.46 billion.

The signing highlighted the placement of the top of the containment vessel for Unit 3, echoing the Hinkley Point C roof lift seen in the U.K., which signified that all modules and large components had been placed inside it. The containment vessel is a high-integrity steel structure that houses critical plant components. The top head is 130 ft. in diameter, 37 ft. tall, and weighs nearly 1.5 million lbs. It is comprised of 58 large plates, welded together with each more than 1.5 in. thick.

"From the very beginning, public and private partners have stood with us," said Southern Company Chairman, President and CEO Tom Fanning. "Everyone involved in the project remains focused on sustaining our momentum."

Bechtel has completed more than 80 percent of the project, and the major milestones for 2019 have been met, aligning with global nuclear milestones reported across the industry, including setting the Unit 4 pressurizer inside the containment vessel last February, which will provide pressure control inside the reactor coolant system. More specialized construction workers, including craft labor, have been hired via the addition of approximately 300 pipefitters and 350 electricians since November 2018. Another 500 to 1,000 craft workers have been more recently brought in.

A key accomplishment occurred last December when 1,300 cu. yds. of concrete were poured inside the Unit 4 containment vessel during a 21-hour operation that involved more than 100 workers and more than 120 truckloads of concrete. In 2018 alone, more than 23,000 cu. yds. of concrete were poured part of the nearly 600,000 cu. yds. placed since construction started, and the installation of more than 16,200 yds. of piping.

Progress also has been solid for Unit 3. Last January the integrated head package (IHP) was set inside the containment vessel. The IHP, weighing 475,000 lbs. and standing 48 ft. tall, combines several separate components in one assembly and allows the rapid removal of the reactor vessel head during a refueling outage. One month earlier, the placement of the third and final ring for containment vessel, and the placement of the fourth and final reactor coolant pump (RCP, 375,000 lbs.), were executed.

"Weighing just under 2 million pounds, approximately 38 feet high and with a diameter of 130 feet, the ring is the fourth of five sections that make up the containment vessel," stated a Georgia Power press release. "The RCPs are mounted to the steam generator and serve a critical part of the reactor coolant system, circulating water from the steam generator to the reactor vessel, allowing sufficient heat transfer for safe plant operation. In the same month, the Unit 3 shield building with additional double-decker panels, was placed.

According to a construction update from Georgia Power, a total of eight six-panel sections have been placed, with each one measuring 20 ft. tall and 114 ft. wide, weighing up to 300,000 lbs. To date, more than half of the shield building panels have been placed for Unit 3. The shield building panels, fabricated in Newport News, Va., provide structural support to the containment cooling water supply and protect the containment vessel, which houses the reactor vessel.

Building the reactors is challenging due to the design, reflecting lessons from advanced reactors now being deployed. Unit 3 will have 157 fuel assemblies, with each being a little over 14 ft. long. They are crucial to fuelling the reactor, and once the initial fueling is completed, nearly one-third of the fuel assemblies will be replaced for each re-fuelling operation. In addition to the Unit 3 containment top, placement crews installed three low-pressure turbine rotors and the generator rotor inside the unit's turbine building.

Last November, major systems testing got underway at Unit 3 as the site continues to transition from construction toward system operations. The Open Vessel Testing will demonstrate how water flows from the key safety systems into the reactor vessel ensuring the paths are not blocked or constricted.

"This is a significant step on our path towards operations," said Glen Chick, Vogtle 3 & 4 construction executive vice president. "[This] will prepare the unit for cold hydro testing and hot functional testing next year both critical tests required ahead of initial fuel load."

It also confirms that the pumps, motors, valves, pipes and other components function as designed, a reminder of how issues like the South Carolina plant leak can disrupt operations when systems falter.

"It follows the Integrated Flush process, which began in August, to push water through system piping and mechanical components that feed into the Unit 3 reactor vessel and reactor coolant loops for the first time," stated a press release. "Significant progress continues ... including the placement of the final reinforced concrete portion of the Unit 4 shield building. The 148-cubic yard placement took eight hours to complete and, once cured, allows for the placement of the first course of double-decker panels. Also, the upper inner casing for the Unit 3 high-pressure turbine has been placed, signifying the completion of the centerline alignment, which will mean minimal vibration and less stress on the rotors during operations, resulting in more efficient power generation."

The turbine rotors, each weighing approximately 200 tons and rotating at 1,800 revolutions per-minute, pass steam through the turbine blades to power the generator.

The placement of the middle containment vessel ring for Unit 4 was completed in early July. This required several cranes to work in tandem as the 51-ft. tall ring weighed 2.4 million lbs. and had dozens of individual steel plates that were fabricated on site.

A key part of the construction progress was made in late July with the order of the first nuclear fuel load for Unit 3, which consists of 157 fuel assemblies with each measuring 14 ft. tall.

On May 7, Unit 3 was energized (permanently powered), which was essential to perform the testing for the unit. Prior to this, the plant equipment had been running on temporary construction power.

"[This] is a major first step in transitioning the project from construction toward system operations," Chick said.

Construction of the north side of the Unit 3 Auxiliary Building (AB) has progressed with both the floor and roof modules being set. Substantial work also occurred on the steel and concrete that forms the remaining walls and the north AB roof at elevation.

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Freedom Cannabis solar array powers an Acheson cannabis facility with 4,574 rooftop panels, a 1,830-kilowatt system by Enmax, cutting greenhouse gas emissions, lowering energy costs, and advancing renewable energy, sustainability, and operational efficiency in Edmonton.

Key Points

A 1,830-kW rooftop solar system with 4,574 panels, cutting GHG emissions and energy costs at the Acheson facility.

✅ 1,830-kW array offsets 1,000+ tonnes GHG annually

✅ Supplies ~8% of annual power; saves $200k-$300k per year

✅ 4,574 rooftop panels installed by Enmax in Acheson

Electricity consumption is one of the biggest barriers to going green in the cannabis industry, where the energy demands of cannabis cultivation often complicate sustainability, but an Edmonton-area pot producer has come up with a sunny solution.

Freedom Cannabis unveiled the largest rooftop solar system used by a cannabis facility in Canada at its 126,000-square foot Acheson location, 20 kilometres west of Edmonton, as solar power in Alberta continues to surge, on Tuesday.

The "state-of-the-art" 1,830-kilowatt solar array—made up of 4,574 panels—was supplied by Enmax and will offset more than 1,000 tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions each year, reflecting how new Alberta solar facilities are undercutting natural gas on price, the company said.

The state-of-the-art solar array—made up of 4,574 panels—was supplied by Enmax and will offset more than 1,000 tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions at Freedom Cannabis every year. Nov. 12, 2019. (Freedom Cannabis)

That will supply roughly eight per cent of the building's annual power consumption and reduce costs by $200,000 to $300,000 annually.

"This strategy will supplement our operating costs for power by up to eight to 10 per cent, so it is something that in time will save us costs on power requirements," said Troy Dezwart, co-founder of Freedom Cannabis.

Dezwart said sustainability was an important issue to the company from its outset, aligning with an Alberta renewable energy surge that is expected to power thousands of jobs.

"We're fortunate enough to be able to have these types of options and pursue them," said Dezwart.

The entire system cost Freedom Cannabis $2.6 million to build, but nearly a million of that came from a provincial rebate program that has since been cancelled by the UCP government, even as a federal green electricity deal with an Edmonton company signals ongoing support.

The company cited a 2017 report that found cannabis growers in the U.S. used enough electricity to power 1.7-million homes, and said cannabis-related power consumption is expected to increase by 1,250 per cent in Ontario over the next five years, even though Canadian solar demand has been lagging overall.

“It’s more important than ever for businesses to manage their energy footprint, and solar is an important part of that solution,” Enmax director Jason Atkinson, said. “This solar installation will help reduce operating costs and offset a significant portion of GHG emissions for decades to come.”

Freedom says it has other initiatives underway to reduce its footprint, in a region planning the Edmonton airport solar farm among other projects, including water remediation and offering 100 per cent recyclable cannabis packaging tins.

The company's first crops are expected to go to market in December.

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EV Decarbonization Strategy weighs life-cycle emissions and climate targets, highlighting mode shift to public transit, cycling, and walking, grid decarbonization, renewable energy, and charging infrastructure to cut greenhouse gases while reducing private car dependence.

Key Points

A plan to cut transport emissions by pairing EV adoption with mode shift, clean power, and less private car use.

✅ Prioritize mode shift: transit, cycling, and walking.

✅ Electrify remaining vehicles with clean, renewable power.

✅ Expand charging, improve batteries, and manage critical minerals.

California recently announced that it plans to ban the sales of gas-powered vehicles by 2035, a move similar to a 2035 electric vehicle mandate seen elsewhere, Ontario has invested $500 million in the production of electric vehicles (EVs) and Tesla is quickly becoming the world's highest-valued car company.

It almost seems like owning an electric vehicle is a silver bullet in the fight against climate change, but it isn't, as a U of T study explains today. What we should also be focused on is whether anyone should use a private vehicle at all.
 
As a researcher in sustainable mobility, I know this answer is unsatisfying. But this is where my latest research has led.

Battery EVs, such as the Tesla Model 3 - the best selling EV in Canada in 2020 - have no tailpipe emissions. But they do have higher production and manufacturing emissions than conventional vehicles, and often run on electricity that comes from fossil fuels.

Almost 18 per cent of the electricity generated in Canada came from fossil fuels in 2019, and even as Canada's EV goals grow more ambitious today, the grid mix varies from zero in Quebec to 90 per cent in Alberta.
 
Researchers like me compare the greenhouse gas emissions of an alternative vehicle, such as an EV, with those of a conventional vehicle over a vehicle lifetime, an exercise known as a life-cycle assessment. For example, a Tesla Model 3 compared with a Toyota Corolla can provide up to 75 per cent reduction in greenhouse gases emitted per kilometre travelled in Quebec, but no reductions in Alberta.

Hundreds of millions of new cars

To avoid extreme and irreversible impacts on ecosystems, communities and the overall global economy, we must keep the increase in global average temperatures to less than 2 C - and ideally 1.5 C - above pre-industrial levels by the year 2100.

We can translate these climate change targets into actionable plans. First, we estimate greenhouse gas emissions budgets using energy and climate models for each sector of the economy and for each country. Then we simulate future emissions, taking alternative technologies into account, as well as future potential economic and societal developments.

I looked at the U.S. passenger vehicle fleet, which adds up to about 260 million vehicles, while noting the potential for Canada-U.S. collaboration in this transition, to answer a simple question: Could the greenhouse gas emissions from the sector be brought in line with climate targets by replacing gasoline-powered vehicles with EVs?

The results were shocking. Assuming no changes to travel behaviours and a decarbonization of 80 per cent of electricity, meeting a 2 C target could require up to 300 million EVs, or 90 per cent of the projected U.S. fleet, by 2050. That would require all new purchased vehicles to be electric from 2035 onwards.

To put that into perspective, there are currently 880,000 EVs in the U.S., or 0.3 per cent of the fleet. Even the most optimistic projections, despite hype about an electric-car revolution gaining steam, from the International Energy Agency suggest that the U.S. fleet will only be at about 50 per cent electrified by 2050.

Massive and rapid electrification

Still, 90 per cent is theoretically possible, isn't it? Probably, but is it desirable?

In order to hit that target, we'd need to very rapidly overcome all the challenges associated with EV adoption, such as range anxiety, the higher purchase cost and availability of charging infrastructure.
 
A rapid pace of electrification would severely challenge the electricity infrastructure and the supply chain of many critical materials for the batteries, such as lithium, manganese and cobalt. It would require vast capacity of renewable energy sources and transmission lines, widespread charging infrastructure, a co-ordination between two historically distinct sectors (electricity and transportation systems) and rapid innovations in electric battery technologies. I am not saying it's impossible, but I believe it's unlikely.

Read more: There aren't enough batteries to electrify all cars - focus on trucks and buses instead

So what? Shall we give up, accept our collective fate and stop our efforts at electrification?

On the contrary, I think we should re-examine our priorities and dare to ask an even more critical question: Do we need that many vehicles on the road?

Buses, trains and bikes

Simply put, there are three ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from passenger transport: avoid the need to travel, shift the transportation modes or improve the technologies. EVs only tackle one side of the problem, the technological one.

And while EVs do decrease emissions compared with conventional vehicles, we should be comparing them to buses, including leading electric bus fleets in North America, trains and bikes. When we do, their potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions disappears because of their life cycle emissions and the limited number of people they carry at one time.

If we truly want to solve our climate problems, we need to deploy EVs along with other measures, such as public transit and active mobility. This fact is critical, especially given the recent decreases in public transit ridership in the U.S., mostly due to increasing vehicle ownership, low gasoline prices and the advent of ride-hailing (Uber, Lyft)

Governments need to massively invest in public transit, cycling and walking infrastructure to make them larger, safer and more reliable, rather than expanding EV subsidies alone. And we need to reassess our transportation needs and priorities.

The road to decarbonization is long and winding. But if we are willing to get out of our cars and take a shortcut through the forest, we might get there a lot faster.

Author: Alexandre Milovanoff - Postdoctoral Researcher, Environmental Engineering, University of Toronto 

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