Intersolar Europe restart 2021: solar power is becoming increasingly popular in Poland


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Poland Solar PV Boom drives record installations, rooftop and utility-scale growth, EU-aligned incentives, net metering, PPAs, and auctions, pushing capacity toward 8.3 GW by 2024 while prosumers, grid upgrades, and energy management expand.

 

Key Points

A rapid expansion of Poland's PV market, driven by incentives, PPAs, and prosumers across rooftop and utility-scale.

✅ 2.2 GW added in 2020, triple 2019, led by small-scale prosumers

✅ Incentives: My Current, Clean Air, Agroenergia, net metering

✅ Growth toward 8.3 GW by 2024; PPAs and auctions scale utility

 

Photovoltaics (PV) is booming in Poland. According to SolarPower Europe, 2.2 gigawatts (GW) of solar power was installed in the country in 2020 - nearly three times as much as the 823 megawatts (MW) installed in 2019. This places Poland fourth across Europe, behind Germany, where a solar power boost has been underway (4.8 GW added in 2020), the Netherlands (2.8 GW) and Spain (2.6 GW). So all eyes in the industry are on the up-and-coming Polish market. The solar industry will come together at Intersolar Europe Restart 2021, taking place from October 6 to 8 at Messe München. As part of The smarter E Europe Restart 2021, manufacturers, suppliers, distributors and service providers will all present their products and innovations at the world's leading exhibition for the solar industry.

All signs point to continued strong growth, with renewables on course to set records across markets. An intermediate, more conservative EU Market Outlook forecast from SolarPower Europe expects the Polish solar market to grow by 35 percent annually, meaning that it will have achieved a PV capacity of 8.3 GW by 2024 as solar reshapes Northern Europe's power prices over the medium term. "PV in Poland is booming at every level - from private and commercial PV rooftop systems to large free-standing installations," says Dr. Stanislaw Pietruszko, President of the Polish Society for Photovoltaics (PV Poland). According to the PV Poland, the number of registered small-scale systems - those under 50 kilowatts (kW) - with an average capacity of 6.5 kilowatts (kW) grew from 155,000 (992 MW) at the end of 2019 to 457,400 (3 GW) by the end of 2020. These small-scale systems account for 75 percent of all PV capacity installed in Poland. Larger PV projects with a capacity of 4 GW have already been approved for grid connection, further attesting to the forecast growth.

8,000 people employed in the PV industry
Andrzej Kazmierski, Deputy Director of the Department for Low-emission Economy within the Polish Ministry of Economic Development, Labour and Technology, explained in the Intersolar Europe webinar "A Rising Star: PV Market Poland" at the end of March 2021 that the PV market volume in Poland currently amounts to 2.2 billion euros, with 8,000 people employed in the industry. According to Kazmierski, the implementation of the Renewable Energy Directive (RED II) in the EU, intended to promote energy communities and collective prosumers as well as long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs), will be a critical challenge, and ongoing Berlin PV barriers debates highlight the importance of regulatory coordination. Renewable energy must be integrated with greater focus into the energy system, and energy management and the grids themselves must be significantly expanded as researchers work to improve solar and wind integration. The government seeks to create a framework for stable market growth as well as to strengthen local value creation.


Government incentive programs in Poland
In addition to drastically reduced PV costs, reinforced by China's rapid PV expansion, and growing environmental consciousness, the Polish PV market is being advanced by an array of government-funded incentive programs such as My Current (230 million euros) and Clean Air as well as thermo-modernization. The incentive program Agroenergia (50 million euros) is specifically geared toward farmers and offers low-interest loans or direct subsidies for the construction of solar installations with capacities between 50 kW and 1 MW. Incentive programs for net metering have been extended to small and medium enterprises to provide stronger support for prosumers. Solar installations producing less than 50 kW benefit from a lower value-added tax of just eight percent (compared to the typical 23 percent). The acquisition and installation costs can be offset against income, in turn reducing income tax.
Government-funded auctions are also used to finance large-scale facilities, where the government selects operators of systems running on renewable energy who offer the lowest electricity price and funds the construction of their facilities. The winner of an auction back in December was an investment project for the construction of a 200 MW solar park in the Pomeranian Voivodeship.


Companies turn to solar power for self-consumption
Furthermore, Poland is now playing host to larger solar projects that do not rely on subsidies, as Europe's demand lifts US equipment makers amid supply shifts, such as a 64 MW solar farm in Witnica being built on the border to Germany whose electricity will be sold to a cement factory via a multi-year power purchase agreement. A new factory in Konin (Wielkopolska Voivodeship) for battery cathode materials to be used in electric cars will be powered with 100-percent renewable electricity. Plus, large companies are increasingly turning to solar power for self-consumption. For example, a leading manufacturer of metal furniture in Suwalki (Podlaskie Voivodeship) in northeastern Poland has recently started meeting its demand using a 2 MW roof-mounted and free-standing installation on the company premises.

 

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Wind Turbine Operations and Maintenance Industry Detailed Analysis and Forecast by 2025

Wind Turbine Operations and Maintenance Market is expanding as offshore and onshore renewables scale, driven by aging turbines, investment, UAV inspections, and predictive O&M services, despite skills shortages and rising logistics costs.

 

Key Points

Sector delivering inspection, repair, and predictive services to keep wind assets reliable onshore and offshore.

✅ Aging turbines and investor funding drive service demand

✅ UAV inspections and predictive analytics cut downtime

✅ Offshore growth offsets skills and logistics constraints

 

Wind turbines are capable of producing vast amounts of electricity at competitive prices, provided they are efficiently maintained and operated. Being a cleaner, greener source of energy, wind energy is also more reliable than other sources of power generation, with growth despite COVID-19 recorded across markets. Therefore, the demand for wind energy is slated to soar over the next few years, fuelling the growth of the global market for wind turbine operations and maintenance. By application, offshore and onshore wind turbine operations and maintenance are the two major segments of the market.

 

Global Wind Turbine Operations and Maintenance Market: Key Trends

The rising number of aging wind turbines emerges as a considerable potential for the growth of the market. The increasing downpour of funds from financial institutions and public and private investors has also been playing a significant role in the expansion of the market, with interest also flowing toward wave and tidal energy technologies that inform O&M practices. On the other hand, insufficient number of skilled personnel, coupled with increasing costs of logistics, remains a key concern restricting the growth of the market. However, the growing demand for offshore wind turbines across the globe is likely to materialize into fresh opportunities.

 

Global Wind Turbine Operations and Maintenance Market: Market Potential

A number of market players have been offering diverse services with a view to make a mark in the global market for wind turbine operations and maintenance. For instance, Scotland-based SgurrEnergy announced the provision of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), commonly known as drones, as a part of its inspection services. Detailed and accurate assessments of wind turbines can be obtained through these drones, which are fitted with cameras, with four times quicker inspections than traditional methods, claims the company. This new approach has not only reduced downtime, but also has prevented the risks faced by inspection personnel.

The increasing number of approvals and new projects is preparing the ground for a rising demand for wind turbine operations and maintenance. In March 2017, for example, the Scottish government approved the installation of eight 6-megawatt wind turbines off the coast of Aberdeen, towards the northeast. The state of Maryland in the U.S. will witness the installation of a new offshore wind plant, encouraging greater adoption of wind energy in the country. The U.K., a leader in UK offshore wind deployment, has also been keeping pace with the developments, with the installation of a 400-MW offshore wind farm, off the Sussex coast throughout 2017. The Rampion project will be developed by E.on, who has partnered with Canada-based Enbridge Inc. and the UK Green Investment Bank plc.

 

Global Wind Turbine Operations and Maintenance Market: Regional Outlook

Based on geography, the global market for wind turbine operations and maintenance has been segmented into Asia Pacific, Europe, North America, and Rest of the World (RoW). Countries such as India, China, Spain, France, Germany, Scotland, and Brazil are some of the prominent users of wind energy and are therefore likely to account for a considerable share in the market. In the U.S., favorable government policies are backing the growth of the market, though analyses note that a prolonged solar ITC extension could pressure wind competitiveness. For instance, in 2013, a legislation that permits energy companies to transfer the costs of offshore wind credits to ratepayers was approved. Asia Pacific is a market with vast potential, with India and China being major contributors aiding the expansion of the market.

 

Global Wind Turbine Operations and Maintenance Market: Competitive Analysis

Some of the major companies operating in the global market for wind turbine operations and maintenance are Gamesa Corporacion Tecnologica, Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technologies, Vestas Wind Systems A/S, Upwind Solutions, Inc, GE Wind Turbine, Guodian United Power Technology Company Ltd., Nordex SE, Enercon GmbH, Siemens Wind Power GmbH, and Suzlon Group. A number of firms have been focusing on mergers and acquisitions to extend their presence across new regions.

 

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Texas battery rush: Oil state's power woes fuel energy storage boom

Texas Battery Storage Investment Boom draws BlackRock, SK, and UBS, leveraging ERCOT price volatility, renewable energy growth, and utility-scale energy storage arbitrage to enhance grid reliability, resilience, and double-digit returns across high-demand nodes.

 

Key Points

Texas sees a rush into battery storage, using ERCOT price spreads to bolster grid reliability and earn about 20% returns.

✅ Investors exploit price volatility, peak-demand spreads.

✅ Utility-scale storage enhances ERCOT reliability.

✅ Top players: BlackRock, SK E&S, UBS; 700 MW deals.

 

BlackRock, Korea's SK, Switzerland's UBS and other companies are chasing an investment boom in battery storage plants in Texas, lured by the prospect of earning double-digit returns from the power grid problems plaguing the state, according to project owners, developers and suppliers.

Projects coming online are generating returns of around 20%, compared with single digit returns for solar and wind projects, according to Rhett Bennett, CEO of Black Mountain Energy Storage, one of the top developers in the state.

"Resolving grid issues with utility-scale energy storage is probably the hottest thing out there,” he said.

The rapid expansion of battery storage could help, through efforts like a virtual power plant initiative in Texas, prevent a repeat of the February 2021 ice storm and grid collapse which killed 246 people and left millions of Texans without power for days.

The battery rush also puts the Republican-controlled state at the forefront of President Joe Biden's push to expand renewable energy use.

Power prices in Texas can swing from highs of about $90 per megawatt hour (MWh) on a normal summer day to nearly $3,000 per MWh when demand surges on a day with less wind power, a dynamic tied to wind curtailment on the Texas grid according to a simulation by the federal government's U.S. Energy Information Administration.

That volatility, a product of demand and higher reliance on intermittent wind and solar energy, has fueled a rush to install battery plants, aided by falling battery costs, that store electricity when it is cheap and abundant and sell when supplies tighten and prices soar.

Texas last year accounted for 31% of new U.S. grid-scale energy storage, with much of it pairing storage with solar, according to energy research firm Wood Mackenzie, second only to California which has had a state mandate for battery development for a decade.

And Texas is expected to account for nearly a quarter of the U.S. grid-scale storage market over the next five years, a trajectory consistent with record U.S. solar-plus-storage growth noted by analysts, according to Wood Mackenzie projections shared with Reuters.

Developers and energy traders said locations offering the highest returns -- in strapped areas of the grid -- will become increasingly scarce as more storage comes online and, as diversifying resources for better projects suggests, electricity prices stabilize.

Texas lawmakers this week voted to provide new subsidies for natural gas power plants in a bid to shore up reliability. But the legislation also contains provisions that industry groups said could encourage investment in battery storage by supporting 'unlayering' peak demand approaches.

Amid the battery rush, BlackRock acquired developer Jupiter Power from private equity firm EnCap Investments late last year. Korea's SK E&S acquired Key Capture Energy from Vision Ridge Partners in 2021 and UBS bought five Texas projects from Black Mountain last year for a combined 700 megawatts (MW) of energy storage. None of the sales' prices were disclosed.

SK E&S said its acquisition of Key Capture was part of a strategy to invest in U.S. grid resiliency.

"SK E&S views energy storage solutions in Texas and across the U.S. as a core technology that supports a new energy infrastructure system to ensure American homes and businesses have affordable power," the company said in a statement.

 

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Germany to Exempt Electric Cars from Vehicle Tax Until 2035

Germany is extending its vehicle tax exemption for electric cars until 2035, a federal move aimed at boosting EV sales, supporting the auto industry, and advancing the country’s transition to cleaner, more sustainable transportation.

 

Why is Germany Exempting EVs from Vehicle Tax Until 2035?

Germany is exempting electric vehicles from vehicle tax until 2035 to boost EV adoption, support its auto industry, and meet national climate targets.

✅ Encourages consumers to buy zero-emission cars

✅ Protects jobs in the automotive sector

✅ Advances Germany’s clean energy transition

Germany’s federal government has confirmed plans to extend the country’s vehicle tax exemption for electric cars until 2035, as part of a renewed push to accelerate the nation’s e-mobility transition and support its struggling automotive industry. The move, announced by Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil, comes just weeks before the existing exemption was set to expire.

“In order to get many more electric cars on the road in the coming years, we need to provide the right incentives now,” Klingbeil told the German Press Agency (DPA). “That is why we will continue to exempt electric cars from vehicle tax.”

Under the proposed law, the exemption will apply to new fully electric vehicles registered until December 31, 2030, with benefits lasting until the end of 2035. According to the Finance Ministry, the measure aims to “provide an incentive for the early purchase of a purely electric vehicle.” While popular among consumers and automakers, the plan is expected to cost the federal budget several hundred million euros in lost revenue.

Without the extension, the tax relief for new battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) would have ended on January 1, 2026, creating uncertainty for automakers and potential buyers. The urgency to pass the new legislation reflects the government’s goal to maintain Germany’s momentum toward electrification, even as the age of electric cars accelerates amid economic headwinds and fierce international competition.

The exemption’s renewal was originally included in the coalition agreement between the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), the Christian Social Union (CSU), and the Social Democratic Party (SPD). It follows two other measures from the government’s “investment booster” package—raising the maximum gross price for EV tax incentives to €100,000 and allowing special depreciation for electric vehicles. However, the vehicle tax measure was previously in jeopardy due to Germany’s tight fiscal situation. The Finance Ministry had cautioned that every proposal in the coalition deal was “subject to financing,” and a plan to end EV subsidies led to speculation that the EV tax break could be dropped altogether.

Klingbeil’s announcement coincides with an upcoming “automotive dialogue” summit at the Chancellery, hosted by Chancellor Friedrich Merz. The meeting will bring together representatives from federal ministries, regional governments, automakers advancing initiatives such as Daimler’s electrification plan across their portfolios, and trade unions to address both domestic and international challenges facing Germany’s car industry. Topics will include slowing EV sales growth in China, the ongoing tariff dispute with the United States, where EPA emissions rules are expected to boost EV sales, and strategies for strengthening Germany’s global competitiveness.

“We must now put together a strong package to lead the German automotive industry into the future and secure jobs,” Klingbeil said. “We want the best cars to continue to be built in Germany. Everyone knows that the future is electric.”

The government is also expected to revisit a proposed program to help low- and middle-income households access electric cars, addressing affordability concerns that persist across markets, modelled on France’s “social leasing” initiative. Though included in the coalition agreement, progress on that program has stalled, and few details have emerged since its announcement.

Germany’s latest tax policy move signals renewed confidence in its electric vehicle transition, despite budget constraints and a turbulent global market, as the 10-year EV outlook points to most cars being electric worldwide. Extending the exemption until 2035 sends a clear message to consumers and manufacturers alike: the country remains committed to building its clean transport future—one electric car at a time.

 

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Tesla’s Solar Installations Hit New Low, but Musk Predicts Huge Future for Energy Business

Tesla Q2 2020 earnings highlight resilient electric vehicles as production and deliveries outpace legacy automakers, while Gigafactory Austin advances, solar installations slump, and energy storage, Megapack, and free cash flow expand despite COVID-19 disruptions.

 

Key Points

Tesla posted a fourth consecutive profit, strong cash, EV resilience, solar slump, and rising energy storage.

✅ Fourth straight profit and $418M free cash flow

✅ EV output and deliveries fell just 5% year over year

✅ Solar hit record low; storage rose 61% to 419 MWh

 

Tesla survived the throes of the coronavirus pandemic relatively unscathed, chalking up its fourth sequential quarterly profit for the first time on Wednesday.

On the energy front, however, things were much more complicated: Tesla reported its worst-ever quarter for solar installations but huge growth in its battery business, amid expectations for cheaper, more powerful batteries expected in coming years. CEO Elon Musk nevertheless predicted the energy business will one day rival its car division in scale.

But today, Tesla's bottom line is all about electric vehicles, and the temporary halt of activity at Tesla's Fremont factory due to local health orders didn’t put much of a dent in vehicle production and delivery. Both figures declined 5 percent compared to the same quarter in 2019. In contrast, Q2 vehicle sales at legacy carmakers Ford, GM and Fiat Chrysler declined by one-third or more year-over-year, even as the U.S. EV market share dipped in early 2024 for context.

The costs of factory closures and a $101 million CEO award milestone for Elon Musk didn’t stop Tesla from achieving $418 million in free cash flow, a major improvement over the prior quarter. Cash and cash equivalents grew by $535 million to $8.6 billion during the quarter.


Musk praised his employees for “exceptional execution.” 

“There were so many challenges, too numerous to name, but they got it done,” he said on an investor call Wednesday.

Musk also confirmed that Tesla will build a new Gigafactory in Austin, Texas, five minutes from the airport. The 2,000-acre campus will abut the Colorado River and is “basically going to be an ecological paradise,” he said. The new Texas factory will build the Cybertruck, Semi, Model 3 and Model Y for the Eastern half of North America. Fremont, California will produce the S and X, and make Model 3 and Model Y for the West, in a state where EVs exceed 20% of sales according to recent data.

 

Return of the Tesla solar slump

This was the first entire quarter affected by the coronavirus response, which threw the rooftop solar industry into turmoil by cutting off in-person sales. Other installers scrambled to shift to digital-first sales strategies, but Tesla had already done so months before lockdowns were imposed.

Q2, then, offers a test case on whether Tesla’s pivot to passive online sales made it better able to deal with stay-at-home orders than its peers. The other publicly traded solar installers have not yet reported their Q2 performance, but Tesla delivered its worst-ever quarterly solar figures: Installations totaled just 27 megawatts. That’s a 7 percent decline from Q2 2019, its previous worst quarter ever for solar.

Musk did not address that weak performance in his remarks to investors, opting instead to highlight the company’s late-June decision to offer the cheapest solar pricing in the country. “We’re the company to go to,” he said of rooftop solar. “It’s only going to get better later this year.”

But the sales slump indicates Tesla’s online sales model could not withstand a historically tough season for residential solar.

"Every single residential installer in the country is going to have a bad Q2 because of the initial impacts of COVID on the market," said Austin Perea, senior solar analyst at Wood Mackenzie. "It's hard to disaggregate the impacts of COVID from their own individual strategies."

Tesla's 23 percent decline in quarter-over-quarter solar installations was not as bad as the expected Q2 decline across the rooftop solar industry, Perea added.

On the vehicle side, Tesla’s sales declined less than did those of major automakers. It’s possible that the same pattern will hold for solar; a less severe drop than those seen by Sunrun or Vivint could be claimed as a victory of sorts. But this quarter made clear that Q2 2019 was not the bottom for Tesla’s solar operation, which once led the residential market as SolarCity but significantly diminished since Tesla acquired it in 2016.


Tesla currently stands in third place for residential solar installers. But No. 1 installer Sunrun said this month that it will acquire No. 2 installer Vivint Solar, making Tesla the second-largest installer by default. That major consolidation in the rooftop solar market went unremarked upon in Tesla's investor call.

Solar and energy storage revenue currently equate to just 7 percent of the company's automotive revenue. But Musk reiterated his prediction that this won’t always be the case. “Long term, Tesla Energy will be roughly the same size as Tesla Automotive,” he said on Wednesday's call.

The grid storage business offered more reason for optimism: Capacity deployed grew 61 percent from the first quarter, rising to 419 megawatt-hours. The prepackaged, large-format Megapack product turned its first profit that quarter.

 

"Difficult to predict" performance in the second half of 2020
Tesla withdrew its financial guidance last quarter in light of the upheaval across the global economy. It refrained from setting new guidance now.

“Although we have successfully ramped vehicle production back to prior levels, it remains difficult to predict whether there will be further operational interruptions or how global consumer sentiment will evolve, given risks to the EV boom noted by analysts, in the second half of 2020,” the earnings report notes.

The company asserted it will still deliver 500,000 vehicles this year regardless of externalities, a goal that aligns with broader EV sales momentum in 2024 trends. It already has sufficient production capacity installed to reach that, Tesla said. But with 179,387 cars delivered so far, Tesla faces an uphill climb to ship more cars in the second half.

Wall Street maintained its buoyant confidence in Tesla's share price, despite rising competition in China noted by rivals. It closed at $1,592 before the earnings announcement, rising to $1,661 in after-hours trading.

 

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Electric vehicles: recycled batteries and the search for a circular economy

EV Battery Recycling and Urban Mining enable a circular economy by recovering lithium-ion materials like nickel, cobalt, and lithium, building a closed-loop supply chain that lowers emissions, reduces costs, and strengthens sustainable EV manufacturing.

 

Key Points

Closed-loop recovery of lithium-ion metals to cut emissions, costs, and supply risk across the EV battery supply chain.

✅ Cuts lifecycle emissions via circular, closed-loop battery materials

✅ Secures nickel, cobalt, lithium for resilient EV supply chains

✅ Lowers costs and dependency on mining; boosts sustainability

 


Few people have had the sort of front-row seat to the rise of electric vehicles as JB Straubel.

The softly spoken engineer is often considered the brains behind Tesla: it was Straubel who convinced Elon Musk, over lunch in 2003, that electric vehicles had a future. He then served as chief technology officer for 15 years, designing Tesla’s first batteries, managing construction of its network of charging stations and leading development of the Gigafactory in Nevada. When he departed in 2019, Musk’s biographer Ashlee Vance said Tesla had not only lost a founder, but “a piece of its soul”.

Straubel could have gone on to do anything in Silicon Valley. Instead, he stayed at his ranch in Carson City, Nevada, a town once described by former resident Mark Twain as “a desert, walled in by barren, snow-clad mountains” without a tree in sight.

At first glance it is not the most obvious location for Redwood Materials, a start-up Straubel founded in 2017 with a formidable mission bordering on alchemy: to break down discarded batteries and reconstitute them into a fresh supply of metals needed for new electric vehicles.

His goal is to solve the most glaring problem for electric vehicles. While they are “zero emission” when being driven, the mining, manufacturing and disposal process for batteries could become an environmental disaster for the industry as the technology goes mainstream.

JB Straubel is betting part of his Tesla fortune that Redwood can play an instrumental role in the circular economy
“It’s not sustainable at all today, nor is there really an imminent plan — any disruption happening — to make it sustainable,” Straubel says. “That always grated on me a little bit at Tesla and it became more apparent as we ramped everything up.”

Redwood’s warehouse is the ultimate example of how one person’s trash is another person’s treasure. Each weekday, two to three heavy-duty lorries drop off about 60 tonnes worth of old smartphones, power tools and scooter batteries. Straubel’s team of 130 employees then separates out the metals — including nickel, cobalt and lithium — pulverises them and treats them with chemicals so they can re-enter the supply chain as the building blocks for new lithium-ion batteries.

The metals used in batteries typically originate in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Australia and Chile, and emerging sources such as Alberta’s lithium potential are being explored, dug out of open-pit mines or evaporated from desert ponds. But Straubel believes there is another “massive, untapped” source: the garages of the average American. He estimates there are about 1bn used batteries in US homes, sitting in old laptops and mobile phones — all containing valuable metals.


In the Redwood’s warehouse, Straubel’s team separates out the metals, including nickel, so they can re-enter the supply chain
The process of breaking down these batteries and repurposing them is known as “urban mining”. To do this at scale is a gargantuan task: the amount of battery material in a high-end electric vehicle is roughly 10,000 times that of a smartphone, according to Gene Berdichevsky, chief executive of battery materials start-up Sila Nano. But, he adds, the amount of cobalt used in a car battery is about 30 times less than in a phone battery, per kilowatt hour. “So for every 300 smartphones you collect, you have enough cobalt for an EV battery.”

Redwood is also building a network of industrial partners, including Amazon, electric bus maker Proterra and e-bike maker Specialized, to receive their scrap, even as GM and Ford battery strategies highlight divergent approaches across the industry. It already receives e-waste from, and sends back repurposed materials to, Panasonic, which produces battery cells just 50 miles north at the Tesla Gigafactory.

Straubel is betting part of his Tesla fortune that Redwood can play an instrumental role in the emergence of “the circular economy” — a grand hope born in the 1960s that society can re-engineer the way goods are designed, manufactured and recycled. The concept is being embraced by some of the world’s largest companies including Apple, whose chief executive Tim Cook set an objective “not to have to remove anything from the earth to make the new iPhones” as part of its pledge to be carbon-neutral by 2030.

If the circular economy takes root, today’s status quo will look preposterous to future generations. The biggest source of cobalt at the moment is the DRC, where it is often extracted in both large industrial mines and also dug by hand using basic tools. Then it might be shipped to Finland, home to Europe’s largest cobalt refinery, before heading to China where the majority of the world’s cathode and battery production takes place. From there it can be shipped to the US or Europe, where battery cells are turned into packs, then shipped again to automotive production lines.

All told, the cobalt can travel more than 20,000 miles from the mine to the automaker before a buyer places a “zero emission” sticker on the bumper.

Despite this, independent studies routinely say electric vehicles cause less environmental damage than their combustion engine counterparts. But the scope for improvement is vast: Straubel says electric car emissions can be more than halved if their batteries are continually recycled.

In July, Redwood accelerated its mission, raising more than $700m from investors so it could hire more than 500 people and expand operations. At a valuation of $3.7bn, the company is now the most valuable battery recycling group in North America. This year it expects to process 20,000 tonnes of scrap and it has already recovered enough material to build 45,000 electric vehicle battery packs.

Advocates say a circular economy could create a more sustainable planet and reduce mountains of waste. In 2019 the World Economic Forum estimated that “a circular battery value chain” could account for 30 per cent of the emissions cuts needed to meet the targets set in the Paris accord and “create 10m safe and sustainable jobs around the world” by 2030.

Kristina Church, head of sustainable solutions at Lombard Odier Investment Managers, says transportation is “central” to creating a circular economy, not only because it accounts for a sixth of global CO2 emissions but because it intersects with mining and the energy grid.

“For the world to hit net zero — by 2050 you can’t do it with just resource efficiency, switching to EVs and clean energy, there’s still a gap,” Kunal Sinha, head of copper and electronics recycling at miner Glencore says. “That gap can be closed by driving the circular economy, changing how we consume things, how we reuse things, and how we recycle.

“Recycling plays a role,” he adds. “Not only do you provide extra supply to close the demand gap, but you also close the emissions gap.”

Although niche today, urban mining is set to become mainstream this decade given the broad political support for electric vehicles, an EV inflection point and policies to address climate change. Jennifer Granholm, US secretary of energy, has called for “a national commitment” to building a domestic supply chain for lithium-based batteries.

It is part of the Biden administration’s goal to reach 100 per cent clean electricity by 2035 and net zero emissions by 2050. Granholm has also said the global market for clean energy technologies will be worth $23tn by the end of this decade and warned that the US risks “bring[ing] a knife to a gunfight” as rival countries, particularly China, step up their investments, while Canada’s EV opportunity is to capitalize on the U.S. auto sector’s abrupt pivot.

In Europe, regulators emphasise environmental and societal concerns — such as the looming threat of job losses in Germany if carmakers stop producing combustion engines. Meanwhile, Beijing is subsidising the sector to boost sales of electric vehicles by 24 per cent every year for the rest of the decade, according to McKinsey.

This support, however, could have unintended consequences.

A shortage of semiconductors this year demonstrated the vulnerability of the “just-in-time” automotive supply chain, with global losses estimated at more than $110bn. The chip shortage is a harbinger of a much larger disruption that could be caused by bottlenecks for nickel, cobalt and lithium supply risks as every carmaker looks to electrify their vehicle portfolio.

Electric car sales last year accounted for just 4 per cent of the global total. That is projected to expand to 34 per cent in 2030, underscoring the accelerating EV timeline, and then swell to 70 per cent a decade later, according to BloombergNEF.

“There is going to be a mass scramble for these materials,” says Paul Anderson, a professor at the University of Birmingham. “Everyone is panicking about how to get their technology on to the market and there is not enough thought [given] to recycling.”

Monica Varman, a clean tech investor at G2 Venture Partners, estimates that demand for battery metals will exceed supply in two to three years, leading to a “crunch” lasting half a decade as the market reacts by redesigning batteries with sustainable materials. Recycled materials could help ease supply concerns, but analysts believe it will only be enough to cover 20 per cent of demand at most over the next decade.

So far, only a handful of start-ups besides Redwood have emerged to tackle the challenge of reconstituting discarded materials. One is Li-Cycle, based in Toronto and founded in 2016, reflecting Canada-U.S. collaboration in EV supply chains, which earlier this year raised more than $600m in a merger with a special purpose acquisition company valuing it at $1.7bn. Li-Cycle has already lined up partnerships with 14 automotive and battery companies, including Ultium, a joint venture between General Motors and LG Chem.

Tim Johnston, Li-Cycle chair, says the group’s plan is to create facilities it calls “spokes” around North America, where it will collect used batteries and transform them into “black mass” — the powder form of lithium, nickel, cobalt and graphite. Then it will build larger hubs where it can reprocess more than 95 per cent of the substance into battery-grade material.

Without urban mining at scale, Johnston worries that the coming shortages will be like the 1973 Arab oil embargo, when US petrol prices quadrupled within four months, imposing what the US state department described as “structural challenges to the stability of whole national economies”.

“Oil you can actually turn back on relatively quickly — it doesn’t take that long to develop a well and to start pumping oil,” says Johnston. “But if you look at the timeline that it takes to develop a lithium asset, or a cobalt asset, or a nickel asset, it’s a minimum of five years.

“So not only do you have the potential to have the same sort of implications of the oil embargo,” he adds, “but [the effects] could be prolonged.”

Beyond aiding supply constraints and helping the environment, urban mining could also prove cheaper. A 2018 study on the recycling of gold and copper from discarded TV sets in China found the process was 13 times more economical than virgin mining.

Straubel points out that the concentration of valuable material is considerably higher in existing batteries versus mined materials.

“With rock and ores or brines, you have very low concentrations of these critical materials,” he says. “We’re starting with something that already is quite high concentration and also has all the interesting materials together in the right place. So it’s really a huge leg up over the problem mining has.”

The top-graded lithium found in mines today are just 2 to 2.5 per cent lithium oxide, whereas in urban mining the concentration is four to five times that, adds Li-Cycle’s Johnston.

Still, the process of extracting valuable materials from discarded products is complicated by designs that fail to consider their end of life. “Today, the design parameters are for quick assembly, for cost, for quality, fit and finish,” says Ed Boyd, head of the experience design group at Dell, the computer company. Some products take 20 or 30 minutes to disassemble — so laborious that it becomes impractical.

His team is now investigating ways to “drastically” cut back the number of materials used and make it so products can be taken apart in under a minute. “That’s actually not that hard to do,” he says. “We just haven’t had disassembly as a design parameter before.”

‘Monumental task’
While few dismiss the circular economy out of hand, there are plenty of sceptics who doubt these processes can be scaled up quickly enough to meet near-exponential demand for clean energy technologies in the next decade. “Recycling sounds very sexy,” says Julian Treger, chief executive of mining company Anglo Pacific. “But, ultimately, [it] is like smelting and refining. It’s a value added processing piece which doesn’t generally have enormous margins.”

Brian Menell, the founder of TechMet, a company that invests in mining, processing and recycling of technology metals and is partly owned by the US government, calls it “a monumental task”. “In 10 years’ time a fully optimised developed lithium-ion recycling battery industry will maybe provide 25 per cent of the battery metal requirements for the electric vehicle industry,” he says. “So it will be a contributor, but it’s not a solution.”

The real volume could be created when the industry recycles more electric vehicle batteries. But they last an average of 15 years, so the first wave of batteries will not reach their end of life and become available for recycling for some time. This extended timeline could be enough for technologies to develop, but it also creates risks. G2 Ventures’ Varman says recycling processes being developed now, for today’s batteries, risk being made redundant if chemistries evolve quickly.

Even getting consistent access to discarded car batteries could be a challenge, as older cars are often exported for reuse in developing countries, according to Hans Eric Melin, the founder of consultancy Circular Energy Storage.

Melin found that nearly a fifth of the roughly 400,000 Nissan Leaf electric cars produced by the end of 2018 are now registered in Ukraine, Russia, Jordan, New Zealand and Sri Lanka — places where getting a hold of the batteries at end-of-life is harder.

Berdichevsky of Sila Nano says his aim is to make EV batteries that last 30 years. If that can be accomplished, pent-up demand for recycling will be less onerous and costs will fall, helping to make electric vehicles more affordable. “In the future we’ll replace the car, but not the battery; of that I’m very confident,” he says. “We haven’t even scratched the surface of the battery age, in terms of what we can do with longevity and recycling.”

 

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BWE - Wind power potential even higher than expected

German Wind Power 2030 Outlook highlights onshore and offshore growth, repowering, higher full-load hours, and efficiency gains. Deutsche WindGuard, BWE, and LEE NRW project 200+ TWh, potentially 500 TWh, covering rising electricity demand.

 

Key Points

Forecast: efficiency and full-load gains could double onshore wind to 200+ TWh; added land could lift output to 500 TWh.

✅ Modern turbines and repowering boost full-load hours and yields

✅ Onshore generation could hit 200+ TWh on existing areas by 2030

✅ Expanding land to 2% may enable 500 TWh; offshore adds more

 

Wind turbines have become more and more efficient over the past two decades, a trend reflected in Denmark's new green record for wind-powered generation.

A new study by Deutsche WindGuard calculates the effect on the actual generation volumes for the first time, underscoring Germany's energy transition balancing act as targets scale. Conclusion of the analysis: The technical progress enables a doubling of the wind power generation by 2030.

Progressive technological developments make wind turbines more powerful and also enable more and more full-load hours, with wind leading the power mix in many markets today. This means that more electricity can be generated continuously than previously assumed. This is shown by a new study by Deutsche WindGuard, which was commissioned by the Federal Wind Energy Association (BWE) and the State Association of Renewable Energies NRW (LEE NRW).

The study 'Full load hours of wind turbines on land - development, influences, effects' describes in detail for the first time the effects of advances in wind energy technology on the actual generation volumes. It can thus serve as the basis for further calculations and potential assessments, reflecting milestones like UK wind surpassing coal in 2016 in broader analyses.

The results of the investigation show that the use of modern wind turbines with higher full load hours alone on the previously designated areas could double wind power generation to over 200 terawatt hours (TWh) by 2030. With an additional area designation, generation could even be increased to 500 TWh. If the electricity from offshore wind energy is added, the entire German electricity consumption from wind energy could theoretically be covered, and renewables recently outdelivered coal and nuclear in Germany as a sign of momentum: The current electricity consumption in Germany is currently a good 530 TWh, but will increase in the future.

Christian Mildenberger, Managing Director of LEE NRW: 'Wind can do much more: In the past 20 years, technology has made great leaps and bounds. Modern wind turbines produce around ten times as much electricity today as those built at the turn of the millennium. This must also be better reflected in potential studies by the federal and state governments. '

Wolfram Axthelm, BWE Managing Director: 'We need a new look at the existing areas and the repowering. Today in Germany not even one percent of the area is designated for wind energy inland. But even with this we could cover almost 40 percent of the electricity demand by 2030. If this area share were increased to only 2 percent of the federal area, it would be almost 100 percent of the electricity demand! Wind energy is indispensable for a CO2-neutral future. This requires a clever provision of space in all federal states. '

Dr. Dennis Kruse, Managing Director of Deutsche WindGuard: 'It turns out that the potential of onshore wind energy in Germany is still significantly underestimated. Modern wind turbines achieve a significantly higher number of full load hours than previously assumed. That means: The wind can be used more and more efficiently and deliver more income. '

On the areas already designated today, numerous older systems will be replaced by modern ones by 2030 (repowering). However, many old systems will still be in operation. According to Windguard's calculations, the remaining existing systems, together with around 12,500 new, modern wind systems, could generate 212 TWh in 2030. If the area backdrop were expanded from 0.9 percent today to 2 percent of the land area, around 500 TWh would be generated by inland wind, despite grid expansion challenges in Europe that shape deployment.

The ongoing technological development must also be taken into account. The manufacturers of wind turbines are currently working on a new class of turbines with an output of over seven megawatts that will be available in three to five years. According to calculations by the LEE NRW, by 2040 the same number of wind turbines as today could produce over 700 TWh of electricity inland. The electricity demand, which will increase in the future due to electromobility, heat pumps and the production of green hydrogen, can thus be completely covered by a combination of onshore wind, offshore wind, solar power, bioenergy, hydropower and geothermal energy, and a net-zero roadmap for Germany points to significant cost reductions.

 

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