Poweo's first combined-cycle power station nears completion

Russia-Ukraine Energy Ceasefire Violations escalate as U.S.-brokered truce frays, with drone strikes, shelling, and grid attacks disrupting gas supply and power infrastructure across Kursk, Luhansk, Sumy, and Dnipropetrovsk, prompting sanctions calls.

Key Points

Alleged breaches of a U.S.-brokered truce, with both sides striking power grids, gas lines, and critical energy nodes.

✅ Drone and artillery attacks reported on power and gas assets

✅ Both sides accuse each other of breaking truce terms

✅ U.S. mediation faces verification and compliance hurdles

Russia and Ukraine have traded fresh accusations regarding violations of a fragile energy ceasefire, brokered by the United States, which both sides had agreed to last month. These new allegations highlight the ongoing tensions between the two nations and the challenges involved in implementing a truce amid global energy instability in such a complex and volatile conflict.

The U.S.-brokered ceasefire had initially aimed to reduce the intensity of the fighting, specifically in the energy sector, where both sides had previously targeted each other’s infrastructure. Despite this agreement, the accusations on Wednesday suggest that both Russia and Ukraine have continued their attacks on each other's energy facilities, a crucial aspect of the ceasefire’s terms.

Russia’s Ministry of Defence claimed that Ukrainian forces had launched drone and shelling attacks in the western Kursk region, cutting power to over 1,500 homes. This attack allegedly targeted key infrastructure, leaving several localities without electricity. Additionally, in the Russian-controlled part of Ukraine's Luhansk region, a Ukrainian drone strike hit a gas distribution station, severely disrupting the gas supply for over 11,000 customers in the area around Svatove.

In response, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Russia of breaking the ceasefire. He claimed that Russian drone strikes had targeted an energy substation in Ukraine’s Sumy region, while artillery fire had damaged a power line in the Dnipropetrovsk region, leaving nearly 4,000 consumers without power even as Ukraine increasingly leans on electricity imports to stabilize the grid. Ukraine's accusations painted a picture of continued Russian aggression against critical energy infrastructure, a strategy that had previously been a hallmark of Russia’s broader military operations in the war.

The U.S. had brokered the energy truce as a potential stepping stone toward a more comprehensive ceasefire agreement. However, the repeated violations raise questions about the truce’s viability and the broader prospects for peace between Russia and Ukraine. Both sides are accusing each other of undermining the agreement, which had already been delicate due to previous suspicions and mistrust. In particular, the U.S. administration, led by President Donald Trump, has expressed impatience with the slow progress in moving toward a lasting peace, amid debates over U.S. national energy security priorities.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov defended Russia’s stance, emphasizing that President Vladimir Putin had shown a commitment to peace by agreeing to the energy truce, despite what he termed as daily Ukrainian attacks on Russian infrastructure. He reiterated that Russia would continue to cooperate with the U.S., even though the Ukrainian strikes were ongoing. This perspective suggests that Russia remains committed to the truce but views Ukraine’s actions as violations that could potentially derail efforts to reach a more comprehensive ceasefire.

On the other hand, President Zelensky argued that Russia was not adhering to the terms of the ceasefire. He urged the U.S. to take a stronger stance against Russia, including increasing sanctions on Moscow as punishment for its violations. Zelensky’s call for heightened sanctions is a continuation of his efforts to pressure international actors, particularly the U.S. and European countries, to provide greater energy security support for Ukraine’s struggle and to hold Russia accountable for its actions.

The ceasefire’s fragility is also reflected in the differing views between Ukraine and Russia on what constitutes a successful resolution. Ukraine had proposed a full 30-day ceasefire, but President Putin declined, raising concerns about monitoring and verifying compliance with the terms. This disagreement suggests that both sides are not entirely aligned on what a peaceful resolution should look like and how it can be realistically achieved.

The situation is complicated by the broader context of the war, which has now dragged on for over three years. The conflict has seen significant casualties, immense destruction, and deep geopolitical ramifications. Both countries are heavily reliant on their energy infrastructures, making any attack on these systems not only a military tactic but also a form of economic warfare. Energy resources, including electricity and natural gas, have become central to the ongoing conflict, with both sides using them to exert pressure on the other amid Europe's deepening energy crisis that reverberates beyond the battlefield.

As of now, it remains unclear whether the recent violations of the energy ceasefire will lead to a breakdown of the truce or whether the United States will intervene further to restore compliance, even as Ukraine prepares for winter amid energy challenges. The situation remains fluid, and the international community continues to closely monitor the developments. The U.S., which played a central role in brokering the energy ceasefire, has made it clear that it expects both sides to uphold the terms of the agreement and work toward a more permanent cessation of hostilities.

The continued accusations between Russia and Ukraine regarding the breach of the energy ceasefire underscore the challenges of negotiating peace in such a complex and entrenched conflict. While both sides claim to be upholding their commitments, the reality on the ground suggests that reaching a full and lasting peace will require much more than temporary truces. The international community, particularly the U.S., will likely continue to push for stronger actions to enforce compliance and to prevent the conflict from further escalating. The outcome of this dispute will have significant implications for both countries and the broader European energy landscape and security landscape.

Related News

• Electricity Forum News

• Energy Policy News

Muskrat Falls rate mitigation offsets Newfoundland Power's rate stabilization decrease as NL Hydro begins cost recovery; Public Utilities Board approval enables collections while Labrador-Island Link nears commissioning, stabilizing electricity rates despite megaproject delays, overruns.

Key Points

Muskrat Falls rate mitigation is NL Hydro's cost recovery via power rates to stabilize bills as commissioning nears.

✅ Offsets 6.4% decrease with a 6.1% rate increase

✅ About 6% now funds NL Hydro's rate mitigation

✅ Collections begin as Labrador-Island Link nears commissioning

With their July electricity bill, Newfoundland Power customers have begun paying for Muskrat Falls, though a lump-sum credit was also announced to offset costs and bills haven't significantly increased — yet.

In a July newsletter, Newfoundland Power said electricity bills were set to decrease by 6.4 per cent as part of the annual rate stabilization adjustment, which reflects the cost of electricity generation.

Instead, that decrease has been offset by a 6.1 increase in electricity rates so Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro can begin recovering the cost of Muskrat Falls, with a $5.2-billion federal package also underpinning the project, the $13-billion hydroelectric megaproject that is billions over budget and years behind schedule.

That means for residential customers, electricity rates will decrease to 12.346 cents per kilowatt, though the basic customer charge will go up slightly from $15.81 to $15.83. According to an N.L. Hydro spokesperson, about six per cent of electricity bills will now go toward what it calls a "rate mitigation fund." 

N.L. Hydro claims victory in Muskrat Falls arbitration dispute with Astaldi
Software troubles blamed for $260M Muskrat Falls cost increase, with N.L. power rates stable for now
The spokesperson said N.L. Hydro is expecting the rate increase to result in $43 million this year, according to a recent financial update from the energy corporation — a tiny fraction of the project's cost. 

N.L. Hydro asked the Public Utilities Board to approve the rate increase, a process similar to Nova Scotia's recent 14% approval by its regulator, in May. In a letter, Energy, Industry and Technology Minister Andrew Parsons supported the increase, though he asked N.L. Hydro to keep electricity rates "as close to current levels as possible. 

Province modifies order in council
Muskrat Falls is not yet fully online — largely due to software problems with the Labrador-Island Link transmission line — and an order in council dictated that ratepayers on the island of Newfoundland would not begin paying for the project until the project was fully commissioned. 

The provincial government modified that order in council so N.L. Hydro can begin collecting costs associated with Muskrat Falls once the project is "nearing" commissioning.

In June, N.L. Hydro said the project was expected to finally be completed by the end of the year.

In an interview with CBC News, Progressive Conservative interim leader David Brazil said the decision to begin recovering the cost of Muskrat Falls from consumers should have been delayed.

"There was an opportunity here for people to get some reprieve when it came to their electricity bills and this administration chose not to do that, not to help the people while they're struggling," he said.

In a statement, Parsons said reducing the rate was not an option, and would have resulted in increased borrowing costs for Muskrat Falls.

"Reducing the rate for one year to have it increase significantly the following year is not consistent with rate mitigation and also places an increased financial burden on taxpayers one year from now," Parsons said.

Decision 'reasonable': Consumer advocate
Brazil said his party didn't know the payments from Muskrat Falls would start in July, and criticized the government for not being more transparent.

A person wearing a blue shirt and black blazer stands outside on a lawn.
N.L. consumer advocate Dennis Browne says it makes sense to begin recouping the cost of Muskrat Falls. (Garrett Barry/CBC)
Newfoundland and Labrador consumer advocate Dennis Browne said the decision to begin collecting costs from consumers was "reasonable."

"We're into a financial hole due to Muskrat Falls, and what has happened is in order to stabilize rates, we have gone into rate stabilization efforts," he said.

In February, the provincial and federal governments signed a complex agreement to shield ratepayers aimed at softening the worst of the financial impact from Muskrat Falls. Browne noted even with the agreement, the provincial government will have to pay hundreds of millions in order to stabilize electricity rates.

"Muskrat Falls would cost us $0.23 a kilowatt, and that is out of the range of affordability for most people, and that's why we're into rate mitigation," he said. "This was part of a rate mitigation effort, and I accepted it as part of that."

Related News

• Electricity Forum News

• Energy Policy News

France Nuclear Power Strategy illustrates a low-carbon, reliable baseload complementing renewables in the energy transition, enhancing grid reliability, energy security, and emissions reduction, offering actionable lessons for Germany on infrastructure, policy, and public acceptance.

Key Points

France's nuclear strategy is a low-carbon baseload model supporting renewables, grid reliability, and energy security.

✅ Stable low-carbon baseload complements intermittent renewables

✅ Enhances grid reliability and national energy security

✅ Requires long-term investment, safety, and waste management

In recent months, France has showcased the critical role that nuclear power plants can play in an energy transition, offering valuable lessons for Germany and other countries grappling with their own energy challenges. As Europe continues to navigate its path towards a sustainable and reliable energy system, France's experience with nuclear energy underscores its potential benefits and the complexities involved, including outage risks in France that operators must manage effectively.

France, a long-time proponent of nuclear energy, generates about 70% of its electricity from nuclear power, making it one of the most nuclear-dependent countries in the world. This high reliance on nuclear energy has allowed France to maintain a stable and low-carbon electricity supply, which is increasingly significant as nations aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, even as Europe's nuclear capacity declines in several markets, and combat climate change.

Recent events in France have highlighted several key aspects of nuclear power's role in energy transition:

1. Reliability and Stability: During periods of high renewable energy generation or extreme weather events, nuclear power plants have proven to be a stable and reliable source of electricity. Unlike solar and wind power, which are intermittent and depend on weather conditions, nuclear plants provide a consistent and continuous supply of power. This stability is crucial for maintaining grid reliability and ensuring that energy demand is met even when renewable sources are not producing electricity.

2. Low Carbon Footprint: France’s commitment to nuclear energy has significantly contributed to its low carbon emissions. By relying heavily on nuclear power, France has managed to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions substantially compared to many other countries. This achievement is particularly relevant as Europe strives to meet ambitious climate targets, with debates over a nuclear option in Germany highlighting climate trade-offs, and reduce overall carbon footprints. The low emissions associated with nuclear power make it an important tool for achieving climate goals and transitioning away from fossil fuels.

3. Energy Security: Nuclear power has played a vital role in France's energy security. The country’s extensive network of nuclear power plants ensures a stable and secure supply of electricity, reducing its dependency on imported energy sources. This energy security is particularly important in the context of global energy market fluctuations and geopolitical uncertainties. France’s experience demonstrates how nuclear energy can contribute to a nation’s energy independence and resilience.

4. Economic Benefits: The nuclear industry in France also provides significant economic benefits. It supports thousands of jobs in construction, operation, and maintenance of power plants, as well as in the supply chain for nuclear fuel and waste management. Additionally, the stable and relatively low cost of nuclear-generated electricity can contribute to lower energy prices for consumers and businesses, enhancing economic stability.

Germany, in contrast, has been moving away from nuclear energy, particularly following the Fukushima disaster in 2011. The country has committed to phasing out its nuclear reactors by 2022 and focusing on expanding renewable energy sources such as wind and solar power. While Germany's renewable energy transition has made significant strides, it has also faced challenges related to grid stability, as Germany's energy balancing act illustrates for policymakers, energy storage, and maintaining reliable power supplies during periods of low renewable generation.

France’s experience with nuclear energy offers several lessons for Germany and other nations considering their own energy strategies:

• Balanced Energy Mix: A diverse energy mix that includes nuclear power alongside renewable sources can help ensure a stable and reliable electricity supply, as ongoing discussions about a nuclear resurgence in Germany emphasize for policymakers today. While renewable energy is essential for reducing carbon emissions, it can be intermittent and may require backup from other sources to maintain grid reliability. Nuclear power can complement renewable energy by providing a steady and consistent supply of electricity.

• Investment in Infrastructure: To maximize the benefits of nuclear energy, investment in infrastructure is crucial. This includes not only the construction and maintenance of power plants but also the development of waste management systems and safety protocols. France’s experience demonstrates the importance of long-term planning and investment to ensure the safe and effective use of nuclear technology.

• Public Perception and Policy: Public perception of nuclear energy can significantly impact its adoption and deployment, and ongoing Franco-German nuclear disputes show how politics shape outcomes across borders. Transparent communication, rigorous safety standards, and effective waste management are essential for addressing public concerns and building trust in nuclear technology. France’s successful use of nuclear power is partly due to its emphasis on safety and regulatory compliance.

In conclusion, France's experience with nuclear power provides valuable insights into the role that this technology can play in an energy transition. By offering a stable, low-carbon, and reliable source of electricity, nuclear power complements renewable energy sources and supports overall energy security. As Germany and other countries navigate their energy transitions, France's example underscores the importance of a balanced energy mix, robust infrastructure, and effective public engagement in harnessing the benefits of nuclear power while addressing associated challenges, with industry voices such as Eon boss on nuclear debate underscoring the sensitivity of cross-border critiques.

Related News

• Electricity Forum News

• Power Generation News

AI Load Forecasting for Utilities leverages machine learning, smart meters, and predictive analytics to balance energy demand during COVID-19 disruptions, optimize grid reliability, support demand response, and stabilize rates for residential and commercial customers.

Key Points

AI predicts utility demand with ML and smart meters to improve reliability and reduce costs.

✅ Adapts to rapid demand shifts with accurate short term forecasts

✅ Optimizes demand response and distributed energy resources

✅ Reduces outages risk while lowering procurement and operating costs

The spread of the novel coronavirus that causes COVID-19 has prompted state and local governments around the U.S. to institute shelter-in-place orders and business closures. As millions suddenly find themselves confined to their homes, the shift has strained not only internet service providers, streaming platforms, and online retailers, but the utilities supplying power to the nation’s electrical grid, which face longer, more frequent outages as well.

U.S. electricity use on March 27, 2020 was 3% lower than it was on March 27, 2019, a loss of about three years of sales growth. Peter Fox-Penner, director of the Boston University Institute for Sustainable Energy, asserted in a recent op-ed that utility revenues will suffer because providers are halting shutoffs and deferring rate increases. Moreover, according to research firm Wood Mackenzie, the rise in household electricity demand won’t offset reduced business electricity demand, mainly because residential demand makes up just 40% of the total demand across North America.

Some utilities are employing AI and machine learning for the energy transition to address the windfalls and fluctuations in energy usage resulting from COVID-19. Precise load forecasting could ensure that operations aren’t interrupted in the coming months, thereby preventing blackouts and brownouts. And they might also bolster the efficiency of utilities’ internal processes, leading to reduced prices and improved service long after the pandemic ends.

Innowatts
Innowatts, a startup developing an automated toolkit for energy monitoring and management, counts several major U.S. utility companies among its customers, including Portland General Electric, Gexa Energy, Avangrid, Arizona Public Service Electric, WGL, and Mega Energy. Its eUtility platform ingests data from over 34 million smart energy meters across 21 million customers in more than 13 regional energy markets, while its machine learning algorithms analyze the data to forecast short- and long-term loads, variances, weather sensitivity, and more.

Beyond these table-stakes predictions, Innowatts helps evaluate the effects of different rate configurations by mapping utilities’ rate structures against disaggregated cost models. It also produces cost curves for each customer that reveal the margin impacts on the wider business, and it validates the yield of products and cost of customer acquisition with models that learn the relationships between marketing efforts and customer behaviors (like real-time load).

Innowwatts told VentureBeat that it observed “dramatic” shifts in energy usage between the first and fourth weeks of March. In the Northeast, “non-essential” retailers like salons, clothing shops, and dry cleaners were using only 35% as much energy toward the end of the month (after shelter-in-place orders were enacted) versus the beginning of the month, while restaurants (excepting pizza chains) were using only 28%. In Texas, conversely, storage facilities were using 142% as much energy in the fourth week compared with the first.

Innowatts says that throughout these usage surges and declines, its clients took advantage of AI-based load forecasting to learn from short-term shocks and make timely adjustments. Within three days of shelter-in-place orders, the company said, its forecasting models were able to learn new consumption patterns and produce accurate forecasts, accounting for real-time changes.

Innowatts CEO Sid Sachdeva believes that if utility companies had not leveraged machine learning models, demand forecasts in mid-March would have seen variances of 10-20%, significantly impacting operations.

“During these turbulent times, AI-based load forecasting gives energy providers the ability to … develop informed, data-driven strategies for future success,” Sachdeva told VentureBeat. “With utilities and energy retailers seeing a once-in-a-lifetime 30%-plus drop in commercial energy consumption, accurate forecasting has never been more important. Without AI tools, utilities would see their forecasts swing wildly, leading to inaccuracies of 20% or more, placing an enormous strain on their operations and ultimately driving up costs for businesses and consumers.”

Autogrid
Autogrid works with over 50 customers in 10 countries — including Energy Australia, Florida Power & Light, and Southern California Edison — to deliver AI-informed power usage insights. Its platform makes 10 million predictions every 10 minutes and optimizes over 50 megawatts of power, which is enough to supply the average suburb.

Flex, the company’s flagship product, predicts and controls tens of thousands of energy resources from millions of customers by ingesting, storing, and managing petabytes of data from trillions of endpoints. Using a combination of data science, machine learning, and network optimization algorithms, Flex models both physics and customer behavior, automatically anticipating and adjusting for supply and demand patterns through virtual power plants that coordinate distributed assets.

Autogrid also offers a fully managed solution for integrating and utilizing end-customer installations of grid batteries and microgrids. Like Flex, it automatically aggregates, forecasts, and optimizes capacity from assets at sub-stations and transformers, reacting to distribution management needs while providing capacity to avoid capital investments in system upgrades.

Autogrid CEO Dr. Amit Narayan told VentureBeat that the COVID-19 crisis has heavily shifted daily power distribution in California, where it’s having a “significant” downward impact on hourly prices in the energy market. He says that Autogrid has also heard from customers about transformer failures in some regions due to overloaded circuits, which he expects will become a problem in heavily residential and saturated load areas during the summer months (as utilities prepare for blackouts across the U.S. when air conditioning usage goes up).

“In California, [as you’ll recall], more than a million residents faced wildfire prevention-related outages in PG&E territory in 2019,” Narayan said, referring to the controversial planned outages orchestrated by Pacific Gas & Electric last summer. “The demand continues to be high in 2020 in spite of the COVID-19 crisis, as residents prepare to keep the lights on and brace for a similar situation this summer. If a 2019 repeat happens again, it will be even more devastating, given the health crisis and difficulty in buying groceries.”

AI making a difference
AI and machine learning isn’t a silver bullet for the power grid — even with predictive tools at their disposal, utilities are beholden to a tumultuous demand curve and to mounting climate risks across the grid. But providers say they see evidence the tools are already helping to prevent the worst of the pandemic’s effects — chiefly by enabling them to better adjust to shifted daily and weekly power load profiles.

“The societal impact [of the pandemic] will continue to be felt — people may continue working remotely instead of going into the office, they may alter their commute times to avoid rush hour crowds, or may look to alternative modes of transportation,” Schneider Electric chief innovation officer Emmanuel Lagarrigue told VentureBeat. “All of this will impact the daily load curve, and that is where AI and automation can help us with maintenance, performance, and diagnostics within our homes, buildings, and in the grid.”

Related News

• Electricity Forum News

• Grid Technologies News

Spain 2050 Renewable Energy Plan drives decarbonisation with wind and solar, energy efficiency, fossil fuel bans, and Paris Agreement targets, enabling net-zero power, emissions cuts, and just transition measures for workers and coal regions.

Key Points

A roadmap to 100 percent renewable power by 2050, deep emissions cuts, and a just transition aligned with Paris goals.

✅ Adds 3,000 MW of wind and solar each year through 2030

✅ Bans new fossil fuel drilling, hydrocarbon extraction, and fracking

✅ Targets 35% energy efficiency gains and 35% green power by 2030

Spain has launched an ambitious plan to switch its electricity system entirely to renewable sources, similar to California's 100% clean electricity mandate, by 2050 and completely decarbonise its economy soon after.

By mid-century, as EU electricity demand projections suggest increases, greenhouse gas emissions would be slashed by 90% from 1990 levels under Spain’s draft climate change and energy transition law.

To do this, the country’s social democratic government is committing to installing at least 3,000MW of wind and solar power capacity every year in the next 10 years ahead.

New licences for fossil fuel drills, hydrocarbon exploitation and fracking wells, will be banned, and a fifth of the state budget will be reserved for measures that can mitigate climate change. This money will ratchet upwards from 2025.

Christiana Figueres, a former executive secretary of the UN’s framework convention on climate change (UNFCCC), hailed the draft Spanish law as “an excellent example of the Paris agreement”. She added: “It sets a long-term goal, provides incentives on scaling up emissions technologies and cares about a good transition for the workforce.”

Under the plan, “just transition” contracts will be drawn up, similar to the £220m package announced in October, that will shut most Spanish coalmines in return for a suite of early retirement schemes, re-skilling in clean energy jobs, and environmental restoration. These deals will be partly financed by auction returns from the sale of emissions rights.

The government has already scrapped a controversial “sun tax” that halted Spain’s booming renewables sector earlier this decade, even as IEA analysis finds solar the cheapest electricity worldwide, and the new law will also mandate a 35% electricity share for green energy by 2030.

James Watson, chief executive of the SolarPower Europe trade association, said the law was “a wake-up call to the rest of the world” amid debate on the global energy transition today.

Energy efficiency will also be improved by 35% within 11 years, and government and public sector authorities will be able to lease only buildings that have almost zero energy consumption.

Laurence Tubiana, chief executive of the European Climate Foundation, and former French climate envoy who helped draft the Paris accord, described the agreement as groundbreaking and inspirational. “By planning on going carbon neutral, Spain shows that the battle against climate change is deadly serious, that they are ready to step up and plan to reap the rewards of decarbonisation,” she said.

However, the government’s hold on power is fragile. With just a quarter of parliamentary seats it will depend on the more leftwing Podemos and liberal Ciudadanos parties to pass the climate plan.

No dates were included in the legislation for phaseouts of coal or nuclear energy, and, echoing UK net zero policy shifts, a ban on new cars with petrol or diesel engines was delayed until 2040.

Related News

• Electricity Forum News

• Climate Change News

Renewables 2020 Global Status Report highlights renewable energy gaps beyond power, urging decarbonization in heating, cooling, and transport, greener COVID-19 recovery, market reforms, and rapid energy transition to cut CO2 emissions and fossil fuel dependence.

Key Points

REN21's annual report on renewable energy progress and policy gaps across power, heating, cooling, and transport.

✅ Calls for decarbonizing heating, cooling, and transport.

✅ Warns COVID-19 recovery must avoid fossil fuel lock-in.

✅ Urges market reforms to boost energy efficiency and renewables.

Growth in renewable power has been impressive over the past five years, with over 30% of global electricity now coming from renewables worldwide. But too little is happening in heating, cooling and transport. Overall, global hunger for energy keeps increasing and eats up progress, according to REN21's Renewables 2020 Global Status Report (GSR), released today. The journey towards climate disaster continues, unless we make an immediate switch to efficient and renewable energy in all sectors in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.

"Year after year, we report success after success in the renewable power sector. Indeed, renewable power has made fantastic progress. It beats all other fuels in growth and competitiveness. Many national and global organisations already cry victory. But our report sends a clear warning: The progress in the power sector is only a small part of the picture. And it is eaten up as the world's energy hunger continues to increase. If we do not change the entire energy system, we are deluding ourselves," says Rana Adib, REN21's Executive Director.

The report shows that in the heating, cooling and transport sectors, the barriers are still nearly the same as 10 years ago. "We must also stop heating our homes and driving our cars with fossil fuels," Adib claims.

There is no real disruption in the COVID-19 pandemic

In the wake of the extraordinary economic decline due to COVID-19, the IEA predicts energy-related CO2 emissions are expected to fall by up to 8% in 2020. But 2019 emissions were the highest ever, and the relief is only temporary. Meeting the Paris targets would require an annual decrease of at least 7.6% to be maintained over the next 10 years, and UN analysis on NDC ambition underscores the need for faster action. Says Adib: "Even if the lock-downs were to continue for a decade, the change would not be sufficient. At the current pace, with the current system and current market rules, it would take the world forever to come anywhere near a no-carbon system."

"Many recovery packages lock us into a dirty fossil fuel economy"

Recovery packages offer a once-in-a-lifetime chance to make the shift to a low-carbon economy, and green energy investments could accelerate COVID-19 recovery. But according to Adib there is a great risk for this enormous chance to be lost. "Many of these packages include ideas that will instead lock us further into a dirty fossil fuel system. Some directly promote natural gas, coal or oil. Others, though claiming a green focus, build the roof and forget the foundation," she says. "Take electric cars and hydrogen, for example. These technologies are only green if powered by renewables."

Choosing an energy system that supports job creation and social justice

The report points out that "green" recovery measures, such as investment in renewables and building efficiency, are more cost-effective than traditional stimulus measures and yield more returns. It also documents that renewables deliver on job creation, energy sovereignty, accelerated energy access in developing countries, and clean, affordable and sustainable electricity for all objectives worldwide, alongside reduced emissions and air pollution.

"Renewables are now more cost-effective than ever, and recent IRENA analysis shows their potential to decarbonise the energy sector, providing an opportunity to prioritize clean economic recovery packages and bring the world closer to meeting the Paris Agreement Goals. Renewables are a key pillar of a healthy, safe and green COVID-19 recovery that leaves no one behind," said Inger Andersen, Executive Director of the UN Environment Programme (UNEP). "By putting energy transition at the core of economic recovery, countries can reap multiple benefits, from improved air quality to employment generation."

This contrasts with the true cost of fossil fuels, estimated to be USD 5.2 trillion if costs of negative impacts such as air pollution, effects of climate change, and traffic congestion are counted.

Renewable energy systems support energy sovereignty and democracy, empowering citizens and communities, instead of big fossil fuel producers and consumers. "When spending stimulus money, we have to decide: Do we want an energy system that serves some or a system that serves many?", says Adib. "But it's not only about money. We must end any kind of support to the fossil economy, particularly when it comes to heating, cooling and transport. Governments need to radically change the market conditions and rules and demonstrate the same leadership as during the COVID-19 pandemic."

The report finds:

Total final energy demand continues to be on the rise (1.4% annually from 2013 to 2018). Despite significant progress in renewable power generation, the share of renewables in total final energy demand barely increased (9.6% in 2013 to 11% in 2018). Compared to the power sector, the heating, cooling and transport sectors lag far behind (renewable energy share in power, 26%, heating and cooling, 10%, transport, 3%).

Today's progress is largely the result of policies and regulations initiated years ago and focus on the power sector. Major barriers seen in heating, cooling and transport are still almost the same a decade on. Policies are needed to create the right market conditions.

The renewable energy sector employed around 11 million people worldwide in 2018

In 2019, the private sector signed power purchase agreements (PPAs) for a record growth of over 43% from 2018 to 2019 in new renewable power capacity.

The global climate strikes have reached unprecedented levels with millions of people across 150 countries. They have pushed governments to step up climate ambitions. As of April 2020, 1490 jurisdictions - spanning 29 countries and covering 822 million citizens - had issued "climate emergency" declarations, many of which include plans and targets for more renewable-based energy systems.

While some countries are phasing out coal, examples such as Europe's green surge show how renewables can soar as emissions fall, yet others continued to invest in new coal-fired power plants. In addition, funding from private banks for fossil fuel projects has increased each year since the signing of the Paris Agreement, totaling USD 2.7 trillion over the last three years.

"It is clear, renewable power has become mainstream and that is great to see. But the progress in this one sector should not lead us to believe that renewables are a guaranteed success. Governments need to take action beyond economic recovery packages. They also need to create the rules and the environment to switch to an efficient and renewables-based energy system, and action toward 100% renewables is urgently needed worldwide. Globally. Now." concludes Arthouros Zervos, President of REN21.

Related News

• Electricity Forum News

• Renewable Energy News