Coal power likely to be an issue in election

By Toronto Star


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The ongoing debate over the future of coal-fired power plants in Ontario is finally coming into focus, with the potential that voters will be offered some real choices on the issue in the coming provincial election.

In the 2003 election campaign, the Liberals promised to close the plants, which supply about 20 per cent of our electricity, by 2007.

"Our coal-burning plants are the worst polluters in Ontario," said the Liberals in their platform. "They create smog and threaten our health."

Once in office and faced with the reality of keeping the lights on, however, the Liberals began backtracking on that promise.

They shut down the Lakeview plant in Mississauga, which had already been slated for closing by the previous Conservative government. But last year they conceded that the remaining four plants – in Nanticoke, Lambton, Thunder Bay and Atikokan – will remain open at least until 2011, and maybe longer.

So if the coal-fired plants are to be kept in operation, shouldn't they be retrofitted with the most up-to-date pollution control equipment to mitigate the damage they cause?

This question was pressed at a legislative committee at Queen's Park on Monday by John Yakabuski, the Conservative energy critic.

Yakabuski noted, with some sarcasm, that the Liberals had earlier blamed the coal-fired plants for causing 668 premature deaths a year in the province and wondered how the government could countenance this toll for another four years (or longer).

Backing up Yakabuski was Energy Probe's Tom Adams, an ardent advocate of coal-fired power. "It's mind-boggling that we don't (spend the money on pollution controls)," said Adams.

Providing the answers was Jim Hankinson, president of Ontario Power Generation, the government-owned operator of the coal-fired plants. Hankinson noted that, while the installation of scrubbers and other pollution controls would remove most of the smog-producing sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxides from the smokestacks of the coal-fired plants, it would do nothing for carbon dioxide emissions.

Carbon dioxide is one of the greenhouse gases blamed for global warming.

Research is under way on methods to contain carbon dioxide emissions, noted Hankinson, "but we're a number of years away from these kinds of initiatives.... There really isn't much that can be done today."

Outside the committee room, Hankinson threw more cold water on the idea of installing new pollution control equipment by pointing out that Ontario's coal-fired power plants are responsible for just 7 per cent of our smog. Most of it can be attributed to airborne pollution from coal-fired plants in the United States and from cars, trucks and planes.

"It (installing pollution controls on the coal-fired plants) would not make a huge difference," remarked Hankinson.

Nonetheless, suggested Yakabuski, if it would save some lives, shouldn't we be doing it?

Indeed, installing pollution controls at our coal-fired plants seems like a no-brainer. But, perhaps counter-intuitively, environmentalists are arguing against it.

The environmentalists worry that the high cost of installing the pollution control equipment on the coal-fired plants – up to $1.5 billion, according to Hankinson – would lock the government into coal and continuing greenhouse gas emissions.

"You're more or less committing to keeping the plants going for another generation if you do that," says Mark Winfield of the Pembina Institute.

The environmentalists would prefer to accelerate the closing of the coal-fired plants and to spend the money elsewhere. The question is: On what? On converting coal-fired plants to natural gas, on renewables, on conservation, and on co-generation, say the environmentalists. Definitely not on more nuclear power.

The provincial New Democrats have more or less lined up with the environmentalists.

The Liberals, while officially awaiting a report on whether to install pollution controls on the coal-fired plants, are leaning heavily against such an investment. They, too, would prefer to close the coal-fired plants as soon as possible and to invest in conservation programs.

But the Liberals believe that, to keep the lights on, we will also need more nuclear power.

The Conservatives? When he was pressed outside Monday's committee meeting on where his party stands, Yakabuski would say only that "all the options" are being reviewed. "A comprehensive policy will be released at the appropriate time," he added.

But if we follow the line of Yakabuski's questions, the Conservatives will be saying that we should keep the coal-fired plants open and invest in pollution controls.

And the debate will begin.

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New England Is Burning the Most Oil for Electricity Since 2018

New England oil-fired generation surges as ISO New England manages a cold snap, dual-fuel switching, and a natural gas price spike, highlighting winter reliability challenges, LNG and pipeline limits, and rising CO2 emissions.

 

Key Points

Reliance on oil-burning power plants during winter demand spikes when natural gas is costly or constrained.

✅ Driven by dual-fuel switching amid high natural gas prices

✅ ISO-NE winter reliability rules encourage oil stockpiles

✅ Raises CO2 emissions despite coal retirements and renewables growth

 

New England is relying on oil-fired generators for the most electricity since 2018 as a frigid blast boosts demand for power and natural gas prices soar across markets. 

Oil generators were producing more than 4,200 megawatts early Thursday, accounting for about a quarter of the grid’s power supply, according to ISO New England. That was the most since Jan. 6, 2018, when oil plants produced as much as 6.4 gigawatts, or 32% of the grid’s output, said Wood Mackenzie analyst Margaret Cashman.  

Oil is typically used only when demand spikes, because of higher costs and emissions concerns. Consumption has been consistently high over the past three weeks as some generators switch from gas, which has surged in price in recent months. New England generators are producing power from oil at an average rate of almost 1.8 gigawatts so far this month, the highest for January in at least five years. 

Oil’s share declined to 16% Friday morning ahead of an expected snowstorm, which was “a surprise,” Cashman said. 

“It makes me wonder if some of those generators are aiming to reserve their fuel for this weekend,” she said.

During the recent cold snap, more than a tenth of the electricity generated in New England has been produced by power plants that haven’t happened for at least 15 years.

Burning oil for electricity was standard practice throughout the region for decades. It was once our most common fuel for power and as recently as 2000, fully 19% of the six-state region’s electricity came from burning oil, according to ISO-New England, more than any other source except nuclear power at the time.

Since then, however, natural gas has gotten so cheap that most oil-fired plants have been shut or converted to burn gas, to the point that just 1% of New England’s electricity came from oil in 2018, whereas about half our power came from natural gas generation regionally during that period. This is good because natural gas produces less pollution, both particulates and greenhouse gasses, although exactly how much less is a matter of debate.

But as you probably know, there’s a problem: Natural gas is also used for heating, which gets first dibs. Prolonged cold snaps require so much gas to keep us warm, a challenge echoed in Ontario’s electricity system as supply tightens, that there might not be enough for power plants – at least, not at prices they’re willing to pay.

After we came close to rolling brownouts during the polar vortex in the 2017-18 winter because gas-fired power plants cut back so much, ISO-NE, which has oversight of the power grid, established “winter reliability” rules. The most important change was to pay power plants to become dual-fuel, meaning they can switch quickly between natural gas and oil, and to stockpile oil for winter cold snaps.

We’re seeing that practice in action right now, as many dual-fuel plants have switched away from gas to oil, just as was intended.

That switch is part of the reason EPA says the region’s carbon emissions have gone up in the pandemic, from 22 million tons of CO2 in 2019 to 24 million tons in 2021. That reverses a long trend caused partly by closing of coal plants and partly by growing solar and offshore wind capacity: New England power generation produced 36 million tons of CO2 a decade ago.

So if we admit that a return to oil burning is bad, and it is, what can we do in future winters? There are many possibilities, including tapping more clean imports such as Canadian hydropower to diversify supply.

The most obvious solution is to import more natural gas, especially from fracked fields in New York state and Pennsylvania. But efforts to build pipelines to do that have been shot down a couple of times and seem unlikely to go forward and importing more gas via ocean tanker in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG) is also an option, but hits limits in terms of port facilities.

Aside from NIMBY concerns, the problem with building pipelines or ports to import more gas is that pipelines and ports are very expensive. Once they’re built they create a financial incentive to keep using natural gas for decades to justify the expense, similar to moves such as Ontario’s new gas plants that lock in generation. That makes it much harder for New England to decarbonize and potentially leaves ratepayers on the hook for a boatload of stranded costs.

 

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Maritime Electric team works on cleanup in Turks and Caicos

Maritime Electric Hurricane Irma Response details utility crews aiding Turks and Caicos with power restoration, storm recovery, debris removal, and essential services, coordinated with Fortis Inc., despite limited equipment, heat, and over 1,000 downed poles.

 

Key Points

A utility mission restoring power and essential services in Turks and Caicos after Irma, led by Maritime Electric.

✅ Over 1,000 poles down; crews climbing without bucket trucks

✅ Restoring hospitals, water, and communications first

✅ Fortis Inc. coordination; 2-3 week deployment with follow-on crews

 

Maritime Electric has sent a crew to help in the clean up and power restoration of Turks and Caicos after the Caribbean island was hit by Hurricane Irma, a storm that also saw FPL's massive response across Florida.

They arrived earlier this week and are working on removing debris and equipment so when supplies arrive, power can be brought back online, and similar mutual aid deployments, including Canadian crews to Florida, have been underway as well.

Fortis Inc., the parent company for Maritime Electric operates a utility in Turks and Caicos.

Kim Griffin, spokesperson for Maritime Electric, said there are over 1000 poles that were brought down by the storm, mirroring Florida restoration timelines reported elsewhere.

"It's really an intense storm recovery," she said. 'Good spirits'

The crew is working with less heavy equipment than they are used to, climbing poles instead of using bucket trucks, in hot and humid weather.

Griffin said their focus is getting essential services restored as quckly as possible, similar to progress in Puerto Rico's restoration efforts following recent hurricanes.

The crew will be there for two or three weeks and Griffin said Maritime Electric may send another group, as seen with Ontario's deployment to Florida, to continue the job.

She said the team has been well received and is in "good spirits."

"The people around them have been very positive that they're there," she said.

"They've said it's just been overwhelming how kind and generous the people have been to them."

 

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"It's freakishly cold": Deep freeze slams American energy sector

Texas Deep Freeze Energy Crisis strains grids as polar vortex triggers rolling blackouts, record natural gas and electricity prices, refinery shutdowns, WTI gains, and scarcity pricing across Texas, Oklahoma, SPP, and Mexico.

 

Key Points

A polar vortex slamming Texas energy: outages, record power prices, gas spikes, and reduced oil output.

✅ Record gas trades near $500/mmBtu; power hits $6,000/MWh

✅ WTI tops $60 as Texas shuts in ~1 million bpd

✅ Rolling blackouts across SPP; ERCOT scarcity pricing

 

A deep freeze is roiling electricity markets in more than a dozen U.S. states, leading to record-setting prices for electricity and natural gas, knocking oil production off line and shutting down some of North America’s largest refineries.

“It’s freakishly cold,” said Eric Fell, a senior natural gas analyst with Wood Mackenzie in Houston, where record cold temperatures and snow have blanketed the city, caused rolling power outages, shut down refineries and sent both natural gas and electricity prices soaring.

'It’s freakishly cold': Deep freeze slams North American energy sector

The polar vortex has led to freezing temperatures in every county in Texas, the largest energy-producing state in the U.S., and caused massive disruptions across the North American energy complex, triggering Texas power outages as far south as Mexico.

As the plunge in temperatures forced oil companies to shut in an estimated one million barrels of oil production in Texas on Monday, the West Texas Intermediate benchmark price rose above the US$60 per barrel threshold for the first time in a year to settle up 1 per cent, or US65 cents, at US$60.12 per barrel.

President Joe Biden declared an emergency on Monday, unlocking federal assistance to Texas.

People carry groceries from a local gas station on Monday in Austin, Texas. Winter storm Uri has brought historic cold weather to Texas, causing traffic delays and power outages. 

Frozen wind farms are just a small piece of Texas’s power grid woes right now.

Fell said regional natural gas and electricity prices in Oklahoma and Texas broke U.S. records over the weekend.

On Friday, Oklahoma gas transmission prices averaged US$350 per million British thermal units and Fell said one trade went as high as US$600 per mmBtu. In parts of the Texas panhandle and elsewhere, prices jumped to US$200, “all of which individually would have been new records,” Fell said, noting the previous record was US$160.

On Monday, natural gas for physical delivery in the U.S. was trading for as much as US$500 per mmBtu as demand for the heating and power plant fuel soared.  Spot gas has been trading for hundreds of dollars across the central U.S. since Thursday with a surge in heating demand triggering widespread blackouts and sending electricity prices soaring. The fuel normally trades in the region for less than US$3 per mmBtu.

Similarly, electricity prices in Texas surged to US$6,000 per megawatt hour on Monday, as U.S. power companies grapple with supply-chain constraints, which Fell said is “100 times the normal price.”

“You’re seeing scarcity pricing in power and gas. The only thing that’s different this time is it’s staying there – it’s not just an hour or two hours, it’s the whole day,” he said.

The blast of Arctic cold, which has blanketed Canada and much of the U.S., has created a massive draw on natural gas supplies, used both for home heating and industrial uses like electricity generation.

Little Rock, Ark.-based Southwest Power Pool, which coordinates electricity distribution for parts of 14 states including Oklahoma Kansas, Nebraska and even as far north as North Dakota, announced rolling blackouts across its network on Monday as a result of the power outages.

“In our history as a grid operator, this is an unprecedented event and marks the first time SPP has ever had to call for controlled interruptions of service” SPP’s executive vice-president and chief operating officer Lanny Nickell said in a release, adding the move was “a last resort” to “prevent circumstances from getting worse.”

The frigid conditions have led to a surge in natural gas prices across the continent, including in Alberta where the AECO benchmark price jumped to a seven-year high of $6.36 per thousand cubic feet last week, a price not seen since 2014.

Energy systems in Texas and Oklahoma, which are major energy exporters to other U.S. states, are built to withstand severe heat – not extreme cold. The result is a disruption to the gas supply at exactly the time the U.S. energy system is demanding those molecules.

“Given how far south it’s gone into Texas, this is where you have a lot of gas production that isn’t properly winterized,” said Jeremy McCrea, an analyst with Raymond James covering the natural gas industry.

 

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World Bank Backs India's Low-Carbon Transition with $1.5 Billion

World Bank Financing for India's Low-Carbon Transition accelerates clean energy deployment, renewable energy capacity, and energy efficiency, channeling climate finance into solar, wind, grid upgrades, and green jobs for sustainable development and climate resilience.

 

Key Points

$1.5B World Bank support to scale renewables, boost energy efficiency, and drive India's low-carbon growth.

✅ Funds solar, wind, and grid modernization projects

✅ Backs industrial and building energy-efficiency upgrades

✅ Catalyzes green jobs, innovation, and climate resilience

 

In a significant move towards bolstering India's efforts towards a low-carbon future, the World Bank has approved an additional $1.5 billion in financing. This article explores how this funding aims to support India's transition to cleaner energy sources, informed by global moves toward clean and universal electricity standards and market access, the projects it will fund, and the broader implications for sustainable development.

Commitment to Low-Carbon Transition

India, as one of the world's largest economies, faces substantial challenges in balancing economic growth with environmental sustainability. The country has committed to reducing its carbon footprint and enhancing energy efficiency through various initiatives and partnerships. The World Bank's financing represents a crucial step towards achieving these goals within the context of the global energy transition now underway, providing essential resources to accelerate India's transition towards a low-carbon economy.

Projects Supported by World Bank Funding

The $1.5 billion financing package will support several key projects aimed at advancing India's renewable energy sector and promoting sustainable development practices. These projects may include the expansion of solar and wind energy capacity, enhancing energy efficiency in industries and buildings, improving waste management systems, and fostering innovation in clean technologies.

Impact on Renewable Energy Sector

India's renewable energy sector stands to benefit significantly from the World Bank's financial support. With investments in solar and wind power projects, and broader shifts toward carbon-free electricity across utilities, the country can increase its renewable energy capacity, reduce dependency on fossil fuels, and mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. This expansion not only enhances energy security but also creates opportunities for job creation and economic growth in the clean energy sector.

Enhancing Energy Efficiency

In addition to renewable energy projects, the financing will likely focus on enhancing energy efficiency across various sectors. Improving energy efficiency in industries, transportation, and residential buildings is critical to reducing overall energy consumption, and analyses of decarbonizing Canada's electricity grid highlight how efficiency supports lower carbon emissions and progress toward sustainable development goals. The World Bank's support in this area can facilitate technological advancements and policy reforms that promote energy conservation practices.

Promoting Sustainable Development

The World Bank's financing is aligned with India's broader goals of promoting sustainable development and addressing climate change impacts. By investing in clean energy infrastructure and promoting environmentally sound practices, and amid momentum from the U.S. climate deal that shapes investment expectations, the funding contributes to enhancing resilience to climate risks, improving air quality, and fostering inclusive economic growth that benefits all segments of society.

Collaboration and Partnership

The approval of $1.5 billion in financing underscores the importance of international collaboration and partnership in advancing global climate goals, drawing lessons from China's path to carbon neutrality where relevant. The World Bank's engagement with India demonstrates a commitment to supporting developing countries in their efforts to transition towards sustainable development pathways and build resilience against climate change impacts.

Challenges and Opportunities

Despite the positive impact of the World Bank's financing, India faces challenges such as regulatory barriers, funding constraints, and technological limitations in scaling up renewable energy and energy efficiency initiatives, as well as evolving investor sentiment amid U.S. oil policy shifts that affect energy strategy. Addressing these challenges requires coordinated efforts from government agencies, private sector stakeholders, and international partners to overcome barriers and maximize the impact of investments in sustainable development.

Conclusion

The World Bank's approval of $1.5 billion in financing to support India's low-carbon transition marks a significant milestone in global efforts to combat climate change and promote sustainable development. By investing in renewable energy, enhancing energy efficiency, and fostering innovation, the funding contributes to building a cleaner, more resilient future for India and sets a precedent for international cooperation in addressing pressing environmental challenges worldwide.

 

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Bangladesh develops nuclear power with IAEA Assistance

Bangladesh Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant advances nuclear energy with IAEA support and ROSATOM construction, boosting energy security, baseload capacity, and grid reliability; 2400 MW units aid development, regulatory compliance, and newcomer infrastructure milestones.

 

Key Points

A 2400 MW nuclear project in Rooppur, built with IAEA guidance and ROSATOM, to boost Bangladesh's reliable power.

✅ Two units totaling 2400 MW for stable baseload supply

✅ IAEA Milestones and INIR reviews guide safe deployment

✅ ROSATOM builds; national regulator strengthens oversight

 

The beginning of construction at Bangladesh’s first nuclear power reactor on 30 November 2017 marked a significant milestone in the decade-long process to bring the benefits of nuclear energy to the world’s eighth most populous country. The IAEA has been supporting Bangladesh on its way to becoming the third ‘newcomer’ country to nuclear power in 30 years, following the United Arab Emirates in 2012 and Belarus in 2013.

Bangladesh is in the process of implementing an ambitious, multifaceted development programme to become a middle-income country by 2021 and a developed country by 2041. Vastly increased electricity production, with the goal of connecting 2.7 million more homes to the grid by 2021, is a cornerstone of this push for development, and nuclear energy will play a key role in this area, said Mohammad Shawkat Akbar, Managing Director of Nuclear Power Plant Company Bangladesh Limited. Bangladesh is also working to diversify its energy supply to enhance energy security, reduce its dependence on imports and on its limited domestic resources, he added.

#google# In the region, India's nuclear program is taking steps to get back on track, underscoring broader momentum.

“Bangladesh is introducing nuclear energy as a safe, environmentally friendly and economically viable source of electricity generation,” said Akbar.  The plant in Rooppur, 160 kilometres north-west of Dhaka, will consist of two units, with a combined power capacity of 2400 MW(e). It is being built by a subsidiary of Russia’s State Atomic Energy Corporation ROSATOM. The first unit is scheduled to come online in 2023 and the second in 2024, reflecting progress similar to the UK's latest nuclear power station developments.  “This project will enhance the development of the social, economic, scientific and technological potential of the country,” Akbar said.

The country’s goal of increased electricity production via nuclear energy will soon be a reality, Akbar said. “For 60 years, Bangladesh has had a dream of building its own nuclear power plant. The Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant will provide not only a stable baseload of electricity, but it will enhance our knowledge and allow us to increase our economic efficiency.

 

Milestones for nuclear

Bangladesh is among around 30 countries that are considering, planning or starting the introduction of nuclear power, with milestones at nuclear projects worldwide offering context for this progress. The IAEA assists them in developing their programmes through the Milestones Approach — a methodology that provides guidance on working towards the establishment of nuclear power in a newcomer country, including the associated infrastructure. It focuses on pointing out gaps, if any, in countries’ progress towards the introduction of nuclear power.

The IAEA has been supporting Bangladesh in developing its nuclear power infrastructure, including in establishing a regulatory framework and developing a radioactive waste-management system. This support has been delivered under the IAEA technical cooperation programme and is partially funded through the Peaceful Uses Initiative.

Nuclear infrastructure is multifaceted, containing governmental, legal, regulatory and managerial components, in addition to the physical infrastructure. The Milestones Approach consists of three phases, with a milestone to be reached at the end of each.

The first phase involves considerations before a decision is taken to start a nuclear power programme and concludes with the official commitment to the programme. The second phase entails preparatory work for the contracting and construction of a nuclear power plant, as seen in Bulgaria's nuclear project planning, ending with the commencement of bids or contract negotiations for the construction. The final phase includes activities to implement the nuclear power plant, such as the final investment decision, contracting and construction. The duration of these phases varies by country, but they typically take between 10 and 15 years.

“The IAEA Milestones Approach is a guiding document and the Integrated Work Plan (IWP) is the important means of bringing all of the stakeholders in Bangladesh together to ensure the fulfilment of all safety, security, and safeguards requirements of the Rooppur NPP project,” said Akbar. “This IWP enabled Bangladesh to develop a holistic approach to implementing IAEA guidance as well as cooperating with national stakeholders and other bilateral partners towards the development of a national nuclear power programme.”

When completed, the two units of the Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant will have a combined power capacity of 2400 MW(e). (Photo: Arkady Sukhonin/Rosatom)

 

INIR Mission

The Integrated Nuclear Infrastructure Review (INIR) is a holistic peer review to assist Member States in assessing the status of their national infrastructure for introducing nuclear power. The IAEA completed its first INIR mission to Bangladesh in November 2011, making recommendations on how to develop a plan to establish the nuclear infrastructure. Nearly five years later, in May 2016, a follow-up mission was conducted, which noted the progress made — Bangladesh had established a nuclear regulatory body, had chosen a site for the power plant and had completed site characterization and environmental impact assessment.

“The IAEA and other bodies, including those from experienced countries, can and do provide support, but the responsibility for safety and security will lie with the Government,” said Dohee Hahn, Director of the IAEA’s Division of Nuclear Power, at the ceremony for the pouring of the first nuclear safety-related concrete at Rooppur on 30 November 2017. “The IAEA stands ready to continue supporting Bangladesh in developing a safe, secure, peaceful and sustainable nuclear power programme.”

Supporting Infrastructure for Introducing a Nuclear Power Plant in Bangladesh: the IAEA Assists with the Review of Regulatory Guidance on Site Evaluation

How the IAEA Assists Newcomer Countries in Building Their Way to Sustainable Energy

"Exciting times for nuclear power," IAEA Director General Says

 

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Shell’s strategic move into electricity

Shell's Industrial Electricity Supply Strategy targets UK and US industrial customers, leveraging gas-to-power, renewables, long-term PPAs, and energy transition momentum to disrupt utilities, cut costs, and secure demand in the evolving electricity market.

 

Key Points

Shell will sell power directly to industrial clients, leveraging gas, renewables, and PPAs to secure demand and pricing.

✅ Direct power sales to industrials in UK and US

✅ Leverages gas-to-power, renewables, and flexible sourcing

✅ Targets long-term PPAs, price stability, and demand security

 

Royal Dutch Shell’s decision to sell electricity direct to industrial customers is an intelligent and creative one. The shift is strategic and demonstrates that oil and gas majors are capable of adapting to a new world as the transition to a lower carbon economy develops. For those already in the business of providing electricity it represents a dangerous competitive threat. For the other oil majors it poses a direct challenge on whether they are really thinking about the future sufficiently strategically.

The move starts small with a business in the UK that will start trading early next year, in a market where the UK’s second-largest electricity operator has recently emerged, signaling intensifying competition. Shell will supply the business operations as a first step and it will then expand. But Britain is not the limit — Shell recently announced its intention of making similar sales in the US. Historically, oil and gas companies have considered a move into electricity as a step too far, with the sector seen as oversupplied and highly politicised because of sensitivity to consumer price rises. I went through three reviews during my time in the industry, each of which concluded that the electricity business was best left to someone else. What has changed? I think there are three strands of logic behind the strategy.

First, the state of the energy market. The price of gas in particular has fallen across the world over the last three years to the point where the International Energy Agency describes the current situation as a “glut”. Meanwhile, Shell has been developing an extensive range of gas assets, with more to come. In what has become a buyer’s market it is logical to get closer to the customer — establishing long-term deals that can soak up the supply, while options such as storing electricity in natural gas pipes gain attention in Europe. Given its reach, Shell could sign contracts to supply all the power needed by the UK’s National Health Service or with the public sector as a whole as well as big industrial users. It could agree long-term contracts with big businesses across the US.

To the buyers, Shell offers a high level of security from multiple sources with prices presumably set at a discount to the market. The mutual advantage is strong. Second, there is the transition to a lower carbon world. No one knows how fast this will move, but one thing is certain: electricity will be at the heart of the shift with power demand increasing in transportation, industry and the services sector as oil and coal are displaced. Shell, with its wide portfolio, can match inputs to the circumstances and policies of each location. It can match its global supplies of gas to growing Asian markets, including China’s 2060 electricity share projections, while developing a renewables-based electricity supply chain in Europe. The new company can buy supplies from other parts of the group or from outside. It has already agreed to buy all the power produced from the first Dutch offshore wind farm at Egmond aan Zee.

The move gives Shell the opportunity to enter the supply chain at any point — it does not have to own power stations any more than it now owns drilling rigs or helicopters. The third key factor is that the electricity market is not homogenous. The business of supplying power can be segmented. The retail market — supplying millions of households — may be under constant scrutiny, as efforts to fix the UK’s electricity grid keep infrastructure in the headlines, with suppliers vilified by the press and governments forced to threaten price caps but supplying power to industrial users is more stable and predictable, and done largely out of the public eye. The main industrial and commercial users are major companies well able to negotiate long-term deals.

Given its scale and reputation, Shell is likely to be a supplier of choice for industrial and commercial consumers and potentially capable of shaping prices. This is where the prospect of a powerful new competitor becomes another threat to utilities and retailers whose business models are already under pressure. In the European market in particular, electricity pricing mechanisms are evolving and public policies that give preference to renewables have undermined other sources of supply — especially those produced from gas. Once-powerful companies such as RWE and EON have lost much of their value as a result. In the UK, France and elsewhere, public and political hostility to price increases have made retail supply a risky and low-margin business at best. If the industrial market for electricity is now eaten away, the future for the existing utilities is desperate.

Shell’s move should raise a flag of concern for investors in the other oil and gas majors. The company is positioning itself for change. It is sending signals that it is now viable even if oil and gas prices do not increase and that it is not resisting the energy transition. Chief executive Ben van Beurden said last week that he was looking forward to his next car being electric. This ease with the future is rather rare. Shareholders should be asking the other players in the old oil and gas sector to spell out their strategies for the transition.

 

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