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EU Energy Price Surge is driving up electricity and gas costs, inflation, and cost of living across the EU, prompting tax cuts, price caps, subsidies, and household support measures in France, Italy, Spain, and Germany.

Key Points

A surge in EU gas and electricity costs driving inflation and prompting government subsidies, tax cuts, and price caps.

✅ Low-income EU households now spend 50-70 percent more on energy.

✅ Governments deploy tax cuts, price caps, and direct subsidies.

✅ Gas-dependent power markets drive electricity price spikes.

Higher energy prices, including for natural gas, are pushing up electricity prices and the cost of living for households across the EU, prompting governments to cut taxes and provide financial support to the tune of several billion euros.

In the United Kingdom, households are bracing for high winter energy bills this season.

A series of reports published by Cambridge Econometrics in October and November 2022 found that households in EU countries are spending much more on energy than in 2020 and that governments are spending billions of euros to help consumers pay bills and cut taxes.

In France, for example, the poorest households now spend roughly one-third more on energy than in 2020. Between August 2020 and August 2022, household energy prices increased by 37 percent, while overall inflation increased by 9.2 percent.

“We estimate that the increase in household energy prices make an average French household €410 worse off in 2022 compared to 2020, mostly due to higher gas prices,” said the report.

In response to rising energy prices, the French government has adopted price caps and support measures forecast to cost over €71 billion, equivalent to 2.9 percent of French GDP, according to the U.K.-based consultancy.

In Italy, fossil fuels alone were responsible for roughly 30 percent of the country’s annual rate of inflation during spring 2022, according to Cambridge Econometrics. Unlike in other European countries, retail electricity prices have outpaced other energy prices in Italy and were 112 percent higher in July 2022 than in August 2020, the report found. Over the same time period, retail petrol prices were up 14 percent, diesel up 22 percent, and natural gas up 42 percent.

We estimate that households in the lowest-income quintile now spend about 50 percent more on energy than in 2020.

“We estimate that before government support, an average Italian household will be spending around €1,400 more on energy and fuel bills this year than in 2020,” the report said. “Low-income households are worse affected by the increasing energy prices: we estimate that households in the lowest-income quintile now spend about 50 percent more on energy than in 2020.”

Electricity production in Italy is dominated by natural gas, which has also led to a spike in wholesale electricity prices. In 2010, natural gas accounted for 50 percent of all electricity production. The share of natural gas fell to 33 percent in 2014, but then rose again, reaching 48 percent in 2021, and 56 percent in the first half of 2022, according to the report, as gas filled the gap of record low hydro power production in 2022.

In Spain, where electricity prices have seen extreme spikes, low-income households are now spending an estimated 70% more on energy than in 2020, according to Cambridge Econometrics.

Low-income squeeze
In Spain, low-income households are now spending an estimated 70% more on energy than in 2020, according to Cambridge Econometrics. It noted that the Spanish government has intervened heavily in energy markets by cutting taxes, introducing cash transfers for households, and capping the price of natural gas for power generators. The latter has led to lower electricity prices than in many other EU countries.

These support measures are forecast to cost the Spanish government over €35 billion, equivalent to nearly 3 percent of Spain’s GDP. Yet consumers will still feel the burden of higher costs of living, and rolling back electricity prices may prove difficult in the near term.

In March, electricity prices alone were responsible for 45 percent of year-on-year inflation in Spain but prices have since fallen as a result of government intervention, Cambridge Econometrics said. Between May and July, fossil fuels prices accounted for 19-25 percent of the overall inflation rate, and electricity prices for 16 percent.

Support measures
Rising inflation is also a real challenge in Germany, Europe’s largest economy, where German power prices have surged this year, adding pressure. Also there, higher gas prices are to blame.

“We estimate that the increase in energy prices currently make an average household €735 worse off in 2022 compared to 2020, mostly due to higher gas prices,” Cambridge Econometrics said, in a report focused on Germany.

The German government has introduced a number of support measures in order to help households, businesses and industry to pay energy bills, amid rising heating and electricity costs for consumers, including price caps that are expected to take effect in March next year. Moreover, households’ energy bills for December this year will be paid by the state. According to the report, these interventions will mitigate the impact of higher prices “to some extent”, but the aid measures are forecast to cost the government nearly 5 percent of GDP.

Fossil-fuel effect
In addition to gas, higher coal prices have also pushed up inflation in some countries, and U.S. electricity prices have reached multi-decade highs as inflation endures.

In Poland, which is heavily dependent on coal for electricity generation, fossil fuels accounted for roughly 40 percent of Poland’s overall year-on-year inflation rate in June 2022, which stood at over 14 percent, the consultancy said.

The price of household coal, which is widely used in heating Polish homes, increased by 157 percent between August 2021 and August 2022.

Higher energy prices in Poland are partly due to Polish and EU sanctions against Russian gas and coal. Other drivers are the weakening of the Polish zloty against the U.S. dollar and the euro, and the uptick in global demand after COVID-19 lockdowns, said Cambridge Econometrics.

Electricity prices have risen at a much slower pace than energy for transport and heating, with an annualized increase of 5.1 percent.

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California clean electricity accelerates with renewables as solar and wind surge, battery storage strengthens grid resilience, natural gas declines, and coal fades, advancing SB 100 targets, carbon neutrality goals, and affordable, reliable power statewide.

Key Points

California clean electricity is the state's transition to renewable, zero-carbon power, scaling solar, wind and storage.

✅ Solar generation up nearly 20x since 2012

✅ Natural gas power down 20%; coal nearly phased out

✅ Battery storage shifts daytime surplus to evening demand

Data from the California Energy Commission (CEC) highlight California’s continued progress toward building a more resilient grid, achieving 100 percent clean electricity and meeting the state’s carbon neutrality goals.

Analysis of the state’s Total System Electric Generation report shows how California’s power mix has changed over the last decade. Since 2012:

Solar generation increased nearly twentyfold from 2,609 gigawatt-hours (GWh) to 48,950 GWh.

• Wind generation grew by 63 percent.
• Natural gas generation decreased 20 percent.
• Coal has been nearly phased-out of the power mix, and renewable electricity surpassed coal nationally in 2022 as well.

In addition to total utility generation, rooftop solar increased by 10 times generating 24,309 GWh of clean power in 2022. The state’s expanding fleet of battery storage resources also help support the grid by charging during the day using excess renewable power for use in the evening.

“This latest report card showing how solar energy boomed as natural gas powered electricity experienced a steady 20 percent decline over the last decade is encouraging,” said CEC Vice Chair Siva Gunda. “Even as climate impacts become increasingly severe, California remains committed to transitioning away from polluting fossil fuels and delivering on the promise to build a future power grid that is clean, reliable and affordable.”

Senate Bill 100 (2018) requires 100 percent of California’s electric retail sales be supplied by renewable and zero-carbon energy sources by 2045. To keep the state on track, last year Governor Gavin Newsom signed SB 1020, establishing interim targets of 90 percent clean electricity by 2035 and 95 percent by 2040.

The state monitors progress through the Renewables Portfolio Standard (RPS), which tracks the power mix of retail sales, and regional peers such as Nevada's RPS progress offer useful comparison. The latest data show that in 2021 more than 37 percent of the state’s electricity came from RPS-eligible sources such as solar and wind, an increase of 2.7 percent compared to 2020. When combined with other sources of zero-carbon energy such as large hydroelectric generation and nuclear, nearly 59 percent of the state’s retail electricity sales came from nonfossil fuel sources.

The total system electric generation report is based on electric generation from all in-state power plants rated 1 megawatt (MW) or larger and imported utility-scale power generation. It reflects the percentage of a specific resource compared to all power generation, not just retail sales. The total system electric generation report accounts for energy used for water conveyance and pumping, transmission and distribution losses and other uses not captured under RPS.

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Germany January Power Mix shows gas-fired generation rising, coal steady, and nuclear phaseout impacts, amid cold weather, energy prices, industrial demand, and emissions targets shaping renewables, grid stability, and security of supply.

Key Points

The January electricity mix, highlighting gas, coal, renewables, and nuclear exit effects on emissions, prices, and demand.

✅ Gas output up 13% to 8.74 TWh, share at 18.6%.

✅ Coal share 23%, down year on year, steady vs late 2023.

✅ Nuclear gap filled by gas and coal; emissions below Jan 2023.

Germany's electricity generation in January presented a fascinating snapshot of its energy transition journey. As the country strives to move away from fossil fuels, with renewables overtaking coal and nuclear in its power mix, it grapples with the realities of replacing nuclear power and meeting fluctuating energy demands.

Gas Takes the Lead:

Gas-fired power plants saw their highest output in two years, generating 8.74 terawatt hours (TWh). This 13% increase compared to January 2023 compensated for the closure of nuclear reactors, which were extended during the energy crisis to shore up supply, and colder weather driving up heating needs. This reliance on gas, however, pushed its share in the electricity mix to 18.6%, highlighting Germany's continued dependence on fossil fuels.

Coal Fades, but Not Forgotten:

While gas surged, coal-fired generation remained below previous levels, dropping 29% from January 2023. However, it stayed relatively flat compared to late 2023, suggesting utilities haven't entirely eliminated it. Coal still held a 23% share, and periodic coal reliance remains evident, exceeding gas' contribution, reflecting its role as a reliable backup for intermittent renewable sources like wind.

Nuclear Void and its Fallout:

The shutdown of nuclear plants in April 2023 created a significant gap, previously accounting for an average of 12% of annual electricity output. This loss is being compensated through gas and coal, with gas currently the preferred choice, even as a nuclear option debate persists among policymakers. This strategy kept January's power sector emissions lower than the previous year, but rising demand could shift the balance.

Industry's Uncertain Impact:

Germany's industrial sector, a major energy consumer, is facing challenges like high energy prices and weak consumer demand. While the government aims to foster industrial recovery, uncertainties linger due to a shaky coalition and limited budget, and debate about a possible nuclear resurgence continues in parallel, which could reshape policy. Any future industrial revival would likely increase energy demand and potentially necessitate more gas or coal.

Cost-Driven Choices and Emission Concerns:

The choice between gas and coal depends on their relative costs, in a system pursuing a coal and nuclear phase-out under long-term policy. Currently, gas seems more favorable emission-wise, but if its price rises, coal might become more attractive, impacting overall emissions.

Looking Ahead:

Germany's energy transition faces a complex balancing act, with persistent grid expansion woes and exposure to cheap gas complicating progress. While the reliance on gas and coal highlights the difficulties in replacing nuclear, the focus on emissions reduction is encouraging. Navigating the challenges of affordability, industrial needs, and climate goals will be crucial for a successful transition to a clean and secure energy future.

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EIA U.S. Power Outlook 2023-2024 forecasts lower electricity demand, softer wholesale prices, and faster renewable growth from solar and wind, with steady natural gas, reduced coal generation, slight nuclear gains, and ERCOT market moderation.

Key Points

An EIA forecast of a 2023 demand dip, 2024 rebound, lower prices, and a higher renewable share in the U.S. power mix.

✅ Demand dips to 4,000 billion kWh in 2023; rebounds in 2024.

✅ ERCOT on-peak prices average about $35/MWh versus $80/MWh in 2022.

✅ Renewables grow to 24% share; coal falls to 17%; nuclear edges up.

U.S. power consumption is expected to slip about 1% in 2023 from the previous year as milder weather slows usage from the record high hit in 2022, consistent with recent U.S. consumption trends observed over the past several years, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).

EIA projected that electricity demand is on track to slide to 4,000 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) in 2023 from a historic high of 4,048 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) in 2022, reflecting patterns seen during COVID-19 demand shifts in prior years, before rising to 4,062 billion kWh in 2024 as economic growth ramps up.

Less demand coupled with more electricity generation from cheap renewable power sources and lower natural gas prices is forecast to slash wholesale power prices this year, the EIA said.

The on-peak wholesale price at the North hub in Texas’ ERCOT power market is expected to average about $35 per megawatt-hour (MWh) in 2023 compared with an average of nearly $80/MWh in 2022 after the 2022 price surge in power markets.

As capacity for renewables like solar and wind ramp up and as natural gas prices ease amid the broader energy crisis pressures, the EIA said it expects coal-fired power generation to be 17% less in the spring of 2023 than in the spring of 2022.

Coal will provide an average of 17% of total U.S. generation this year, down from 20% last year, as utilities shift investments toward electricity delivery and away from new power production, the EIA said.

The share of total generation supplied by natural gas is seen remaining at about the same this year at 39%. The nuclear share of generation is seen rising slightly to 20% this year from 19% in 2022. Generation from renewable energy sources grows the most in the forecast, increasing to 24% this year from a share of 22% last year, even as residential electricity bills rose in 2022 across the U.S.

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Adani Electricity Mumbai Power Cuts follow non-payment rules, reflecting billing disputes, regulatory compliance, consumer impact, and affordability concerns, while prompting mitigation measures like flexible payment plans, assistance programs, and clearer communication for residents.

Key Points

AEML cutoffs for unpaid bills per rules, raising affordability worries, billing issues, and calls for flexible aid.

✅ Triggered by unpaid bills under regulatory guidelines

✅ Affordability and billing transparency concerns raised

✅ Mitigation: flexible plans, aid for low-income users

Adani Electricity Mumbai Limited (AEML) recently made headlines by cutting power supply to around 100 homes in Mumbai, sparking discussions about the reasons behind this action and its implications for consumers, especially as reports like the Northeast D.C. outage continue to surface.

Background of the Incident

The power supply disconnections by AEML were reportedly due to non-payment of electricity bills by the affected households. This action, although necessary under AEML's policies and in accordance with regulatory guidelines, has raised concerns about the impact on residents, particularly during challenging economic times when pandemic electricity shut-offs highlighted energy insecurity.

Reasons for Non-Payment

Non-payment of electricity bills can stem from various reasons, including financial hardships, disputes over billing accuracy, or unforeseen circumstances affecting household finances. In Mumbai, where the cost of living is high, utility bills constitute a significant portion of monthly expenses for many households, mirroring trends of rising electricity bills seen elsewhere.

Regulatory and Legal Framework

AEML's decision to disconnect power supply aligns with regulatory provisions governing utility services, which may include emergency disconnection moratoriums in other jurisdictions. Utility companies are mandated to enforce bill payments to maintain operational sustainability and ensure fair distribution of resources among consumers.

Consumer Impact and Response

The power disconnections have prompted reactions from affected residents and consumer advocacy groups, highlighting issues related to affordability, transparency in billing practices, and the need for supportive measures during times of economic distress amid heat-related electricity struggles that pressure vulnerable households.

Mitigation Measures

In response to such incidents, utility companies and regulatory authorities often implement mitigation measures. These may include flexible payment options, financial assistance programs for low-income households, and enhanced communication about billing procedures and payment deadlines, along with policy scrutiny such as utility spending oversight to curb unnecessary costs.

Future Considerations

As cities like Mumbai continue to grow and face challenges related to urbanization and infrastructure development, ensuring reliable and affordable access to essential services like electricity, including efforts to prevent summer power outages, remains a priority. Balancing the operational needs of utility providers with consumer welfare concerns requires ongoing dialogue and proactive measures from all stakeholders.

Conclusion

The power supply cuts by Adani Electricity in Mumbai underscore the complexities of managing utility services in urban centers. While necessary for financial viability and regulatory compliance, such actions also highlight broader issues of affordability and consumer protection. Moving forward, collaborative efforts between utility companies, regulatory authorities, and community stakeholders are essential in addressing these challenges and ensuring equitable access to essential services for all residents.

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CPUC Decision on San Diego Community Power directs SDG&E to use updated forecasts, stabilizing electricity rates for CCA customers and supporting clean energy in San Diego with accurate rate forecasting and reduced volatility.

Key Points

A CPUC ruling directing SDG&E to use updated forecasts to ensure accurate, stable CCA rates and limit volatility.

✅ Uses 2021 sales forecasts for rate setting

✅ Aims to prevent undercollection and bill spikes

✅ Levels changes across customer classes

The California Public Utilities Commission on Thursday sided with the soon-to-launch San Diego community energy program in a dispute it had with San Diego Gas & Electric.

San Diego Community Power — which will begin to purchase power for customers in San Diego, Chula Vista, La Mesa, Encinitas and Imperial Beach later this year — had complained to the commission that data SDG&E intended to use to calculate rates, including community choice exit fees that could make the new energy program less attractive to prospective customers.

SDG&E argued it was using numbers it was authorized to employ as part of a general rate case amid a potential rate structure revamp that is still being considered by the commission.

But in a 4-0 vote, the commission, or CPUC, sided with San Diego Community Power and directed SDG&E to use an updated forecast for energy sales.

"This was not an easy decision," said CPUC president Marybel Batjer at the meeting, held remotely due to COVID-19 restrictions. "In my mind, this outcome best accounts for the shifting realities ... in the San Diego area while minimizing the impact on ratepayers during these difficult financial times."

In filings to the commission, SDG&E predicted a rate decrease of 12.35 percent in the coming year. While that appears to be good news for customers, Californians still face soaring electricity prices statewide, Commissioner Martha Guzman Aceves said the data set SDG&E wanted to use would lead to an undercollection of $150 million to $260 million.

That would result in rates that would be "artificially low," Guzman Aceves said, and rates "would inevitably go up quite a bit after the undercollection was addressed."

San Diego Community Power, or SDCP, said the temporary reduction would make its rates less attractive than SDG&E's, especially amid SDG&E's minimum charge proposal affecting low-usage customers, just as it is about to begin serving customers. SDCP's board members wrote an open letter last month to the commission, accusing the utility of "willful manipulation of data."

Working with an administrative law judge at the CPUC, Guzman Aceves authored a proposal requiring SDG&E to use numbers based on 2021 forecasts, as regulators simultaneously weigh whether the state needs more power plants to ensure reliability. The utility argued that could result in an increase of "roughly 40 percent" for medium and large commercial and industrial customers this year.

To help reduce potential volatility, Guzman Aceves, SDCP and other community energy supporters called for using a formula that would average out changes in rates across customer classes amid debates over income-based utility charges statewide. That's what the commissioners OK'd Thursday.

"It is essential that customer commodity rates be as accurate as we can possibly get them to avoid undercollections," said Commissioner Genevieve Shiroma.

San Diego Community Power is one of 23 community choice aggregation, or CCA, energy programs that have launched in California in the past decade.

CCAs compete with traditional power companies amid California's evolving power competition landscape, in one important role — purchasing power for a given community. They were created to boost the use of cleaner energy sources, such as wind and solar, at rates equal to or lower than investor-owned utilities.

However, CCAs do not replace utilities because the incumbent power companies still perform all of the tasks outside of power purchasing, such as transmission and distribution of energy and customer billing.

When a CCA is formed, California rules stipulate the utility customers in that area are automatically enrolled in the CCA. If customers prefer to stay with their previous power company, they can opt out of joining the CCA.

The shift of customers from SDG&E to San Diego Community Power is expected to be large. The total number of accounts for SDCP is expected to be 770,000, which would make it the second-largest CCA in the state. That's why SDCP considered Thursday's CPUC decision to be so important.

"At a time when customers are choosing between sticking with San Diego Gas & Electric and migrating to a CCA, we want them to have accurate bill information," said Commissioner Clifford Rechtschaffen.

"SDCP is very happy with today's CPUC decision, and that the commissioners shared our goal of limiting rate volatility for businesses and families in the region," said SDCP interim CEO Bill Carnahan. "This is definitely a win for accurate rate forecasting, and our mutual customers, and we look forward to working with SDG&E on next steps."

In an email, SDG&E spokeswoman Helen Gao said, "We are committed to continuing to work collaboratively with local Community Choice Aggregation programs to support their successful launch in 2021 and ensure that our mutual customers receive excellent customer service."

San Diego Community Power's case before the CPUC was joined by the California Community Choice Association, a trade group advocating for CCAs, and the Clean Energy Alliance — the North County-based CCA representing Del Mar, Solana Beach and Carlsbad that is scheduled to launch this summer.

SDCP will begin its rollout this year, folding in about 71,000 municipal, commercial and industrial accounts. The bulk of its roughly 700,000 residential accounts is expected to come in January 2022.

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