New York Street Lights Carry High Stray Voltage

Lockdown Electricity Demand Trends reveal later mornings, weaker afternoons, and delayed peaks as WFH, streaming, and video conferencing reshape energy demand curves, grid forecasting, and residential electricity usage across Europe, New York, Tokyo, and Singapore.

Key Points

Shifts in power use during lockdowns: later ramps, weaker afternoons, and higher, delayed evening peaks.

✅ Morning ramp starts later; midday demand dips

✅ Evening peak shifts 1-2 hours; higher late-night usage

✅ WFH and streaming raise residential load; industrial demand falls

Life in lockdown means getting up late, staying up till midnight and slacking off in the afternoons.

That’s what power market data in Europe show in the places where restrictions on activity have led to a widespread shift in daily routines of hundreds of millions of people.

It’s a similar story wherever lockdowns bite. In New York City electricity use has fallen as much as 18% from normal times at 8am. Tokyo and three nearby prefectures had a 5% drop in power use during weekdays after Japan declared a state of emergency on April 7, according to Tesla Asia Pacific, an energy forecaster.

Italy’s experience shows the trend most clearly since the curbs started there on March 5, before any other European country. Data from the grid operator Terna SpA gives a taste of what other places are also now starting to report, with global daily demand dips observed in many markets as well.

1. People are sleeping later

With no commute to the office people can sleep longer. Normally, electricity demand began to pick up between 6 a.m. and 8 a.m. Now in Germany, it’s clear coffee machines don’t go on until between 8 a.m. and 9 a.m., said Simon Rathjen, founder of the trading company MFT Energy A/S.

Germany, France and Italy -- which between them make up almost two thirds of the euro-zone economy -- all have furlough measures that allow workers to receive a salary while temporarily suspended from their jobs. The U.K. also has a support package. Many of these workers will be getting up later.

"Now I have quite a relaxed start to the morning,” said David Freeman, an analyst in financial services from London. "I don’t get up until about half an hour before I need to start work.”

2. Less productive afternoons

There is a deeper dip in electricity use in the afternoons. Previously, power use rose between 2pm and 5pm. Now it dips as people head out for a walk or some air, according to UK demand data from National Grid Plc

It’s "as though we are living through a month of Sundays”, said Iain Staffell, senior lecturer in sustainable energy at Imperial College London.

3. Evenings in

From 6pm electricity use begins to rise steeply as people finish work and start chores. Restrictions like work and home schooling that prevent much daytime TV watching lifts in the early evening. This following chart for Germany shows the evening peak for power use coming during later hours.

The evening is when electricity use is highest, with most people confined to their homes. Netflix Inc reported a record 15.8 million paid subscribers – almost double the figure forecast by Wall Street analysts. Video-streaming services like Netflix and YouTube have found a captive audience. The new Disney+ service surpassed 50 million subscribers in just five months, a faster pace than predicted.

Internet traffic is skyrocketing, with a surge in bandwidth-intensive applications like streaming services and Zoom. This may mean that monthly broadband consumption of as much as 600 gigabytes, about 35% higher than before, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.

In Singapore, electricity use has dropped off significantly since the country’s "circuit-breaker” efforts to keep people at home began April 7. Electricity use has fallen and stayed low during the day. But late at night is a different story, as power demand fell sharply immediately after the lockdown began, it has steadily crept back in the past two weeks, perhaps a sign that Tiger King and The Last Dance have been finding late-night fans in the city state.

In Ottawa, COVID-19 closures made it seem as if the city had fallen off the electricity grid, according to local reports.

4. Staying up late

We’re going to bed later too. Demand doesn’t start to drop off until 10pm to 12am, at least an hour later than before.

"My children are definitely going to bed later,” said Liz Stevens, a teaching assistant from London. "Our whole routine is out the window.”

It’s challenging for those that need to predict behaviour – power grids and electricity traders. Forecasting is based on historical data, and there isn’t anything to go into the models gauging use now.

The closest we can get is looking at big events like football World Championships when people are all sitting down at the same time, according to Rathjen at MFT.

"Forecasting demand right now is very tricky,” said Chris Kimmett, director of power grids at Reactive Technologies Ltd. "A global pandemic is uncharted territory."

What normal looks like when the crisis passes is also an open question. Different countries are set to unravel their measures in their own ways, and global power demand has already surged above pre-pandemic levels in some analyses, with Germany and Austria loosening restrictions first and Italy remaining under tight control. Some changes may be permanent, with both workers and employers becoming more comfortable with working from home.

5. Different sectors consume more

In China, which is further along recovering from the pandemic than Europe or the US, the sharp contraction in overall power output masks a shift in daily routines.

Eating habits have changed. Restaurants are expanding delivery and even offering grocery services as the preference for dining at home persists. Household electricity consumption in China probably increased from activities such as cooking and heating, according to IHS Markit, which said that residential demand rose by 2.4% in the first two months as people stayed in.

The increase in technology use also drove China’s power demand from the telecom and web-service sectors to rise by 27%, the consultancy said.

Overall, China power demand in the first quarter of the year fell 6.5% from the same period in 2019 to 1.57 trillion kilowatt-hours, China’s National Energy Administration said last week. Industry uses about 70% of the country’s electricity, while the commercial sector and households account for 14% each. – Bloomberg

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UK Electricity-Gas Price Decoupling aims to reform wholesale electricity pricing under the Energy Security Bill, shielding households from gas price spikes, supporting renewables, and easing the cost-of-living crisis through market redesign and transparent tariffs.

Key Points

Policy to decouple power prices from gas via the Energy Security Bill, stabilizing bills and reflecting renewables

✅ Breaks gas-to-power pricing link to cut electricity costs

✅ Reduces volatility; shields households from global gas shocks

✅ Highlights benefits of renewables and market transparency

Britons could be handed relief on rocketing household bills under Government plans to sever the link between the prices of gas and electricity, including proposals to restrict energy prices in the market, it has emerged.

Ministers are set to bring forward new laws under the Energy Security Bill to overhaul the UK's energy market in the face of the current cost-of-living crisis.

They have promised to provide greater protection for Britons against global fluctuations in energy prices, through a price cap on bills among other measures.

The current worldwide crisis has been exacerbated by the Ukraine war, which has sent gas prices spiralling higher.

Under the current make-up of Britain's energy market, soaring natural gas prices have had a knock-on effect on electricity costs.

But it has now been reported the new legislation will seek to prevent future shocks in the global gas market having a similar impact on electricity prices.

Yet the overhaul might not come in time to ease high winter energy costs for households ahead of this winter.

According to The Times, Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng will outline proposals for reforms in the coming weeks.

These will then form part of the Energy Security Bill to be introduced in the autumn, with officials anticipating a decrease in energy bills by April.

The newspaper said the plans will end the current system under which the wholesale cost of gas effectively determines the price of electricity for households.

Although more than a quarter of Britain's electricity comes from renewable sources, under current market rules it is the most expensive megawatt needed to meet demand that determines the price for all electricity generation.

This means that soaring gas prices have driven up all electricity costs in recent months, even though only around 40% of UK electricity comes from gas power stations.

Energy experts have compared the current market to train passengers having to pay the peak-period price for every journey they make.

One Government source told The Times: 'In the past it didn’t really matter because the price of gas was reasonably stable.

'Now it seems completely crazy that the price of electricity is based on the price of gas when a large amount of our generation is from renewables.'

It was also claimed ministers hope the reforms will make the market more transparent and emphasise to consumers the benefits of decarbonisation, amid an ongoing industry debate over free electricity for consumers.

A Government spokesperson said: 'The high global gas prices and linked high electricity prices that we are currently facing have given added urgency to the need to consider electricity market reform.

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EV Decarbonization Strategy weighs life-cycle emissions and climate targets, highlighting mode shift to public transit, cycling, and walking, grid decarbonization, renewable energy, and charging infrastructure to cut greenhouse gases while reducing private car dependence.

Key Points

A plan to cut transport emissions by pairing EV adoption with mode shift, clean power, and less private car use.

✅ Prioritize mode shift: transit, cycling, and walking.

✅ Electrify remaining vehicles with clean, renewable power.

✅ Expand charging, improve batteries, and manage critical minerals.

California recently announced that it plans to ban the sales of gas-powered vehicles by 2035, a move similar to a 2035 electric vehicle mandate seen elsewhere, Ontario has invested $500 million in the production of electric vehicles (EVs) and Tesla is quickly becoming the world's highest-valued car company.

It almost seems like owning an electric vehicle is a silver bullet in the fight against climate change, but it isn't, as a U of T study explains today. What we should also be focused on is whether anyone should use a private vehicle at all.
 
As a researcher in sustainable mobility, I know this answer is unsatisfying. But this is where my latest research has led.

Battery EVs, such as the Tesla Model 3 - the best selling EV in Canada in 2020 - have no tailpipe emissions. But they do have higher production and manufacturing emissions than conventional vehicles, and often run on electricity that comes from fossil fuels.

Almost 18 per cent of the electricity generated in Canada came from fossil fuels in 2019, and even as Canada's EV goals grow more ambitious today, the grid mix varies from zero in Quebec to 90 per cent in Alberta.
 
Researchers like me compare the greenhouse gas emissions of an alternative vehicle, such as an EV, with those of a conventional vehicle over a vehicle lifetime, an exercise known as a life-cycle assessment. For example, a Tesla Model 3 compared with a Toyota Corolla can provide up to 75 per cent reduction in greenhouse gases emitted per kilometre travelled in Quebec, but no reductions in Alberta.

Hundreds of millions of new cars

To avoid extreme and irreversible impacts on ecosystems, communities and the overall global economy, we must keep the increase in global average temperatures to less than 2 C - and ideally 1.5 C - above pre-industrial levels by the year 2100.

We can translate these climate change targets into actionable plans. First, we estimate greenhouse gas emissions budgets using energy and climate models for each sector of the economy and for each country. Then we simulate future emissions, taking alternative technologies into account, as well as future potential economic and societal developments.

I looked at the U.S. passenger vehicle fleet, which adds up to about 260 million vehicles, while noting the potential for Canada-U.S. collaboration in this transition, to answer a simple question: Could the greenhouse gas emissions from the sector be brought in line with climate targets by replacing gasoline-powered vehicles with EVs?

The results were shocking. Assuming no changes to travel behaviours and a decarbonization of 80 per cent of electricity, meeting a 2 C target could require up to 300 million EVs, or 90 per cent of the projected U.S. fleet, by 2050. That would require all new purchased vehicles to be electric from 2035 onwards.

To put that into perspective, there are currently 880,000 EVs in the U.S., or 0.3 per cent of the fleet. Even the most optimistic projections, despite hype about an electric-car revolution gaining steam, from the International Energy Agency suggest that the U.S. fleet will only be at about 50 per cent electrified by 2050.

Massive and rapid electrification

Still, 90 per cent is theoretically possible, isn't it? Probably, but is it desirable?

In order to hit that target, we'd need to very rapidly overcome all the challenges associated with EV adoption, such as range anxiety, the higher purchase cost and availability of charging infrastructure.
 
A rapid pace of electrification would severely challenge the electricity infrastructure and the supply chain of many critical materials for the batteries, such as lithium, manganese and cobalt. It would require vast capacity of renewable energy sources and transmission lines, widespread charging infrastructure, a co-ordination between two historically distinct sectors (electricity and transportation systems) and rapid innovations in electric battery technologies. I am not saying it's impossible, but I believe it's unlikely.

Read more: There aren't enough batteries to electrify all cars - focus on trucks and buses instead

So what? Shall we give up, accept our collective fate and stop our efforts at electrification?

On the contrary, I think we should re-examine our priorities and dare to ask an even more critical question: Do we need that many vehicles on the road?

Buses, trains and bikes

Simply put, there are three ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from passenger transport: avoid the need to travel, shift the transportation modes or improve the technologies. EVs only tackle one side of the problem, the technological one.

And while EVs do decrease emissions compared with conventional vehicles, we should be comparing them to buses, including leading electric bus fleets in North America, trains and bikes. When we do, their potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions disappears because of their life cycle emissions and the limited number of people they carry at one time.

If we truly want to solve our climate problems, we need to deploy EVs along with other measures, such as public transit and active mobility. This fact is critical, especially given the recent decreases in public transit ridership in the U.S., mostly due to increasing vehicle ownership, low gasoline prices and the advent of ride-hailing (Uber, Lyft)

Governments need to massively invest in public transit, cycling and walking infrastructure to make them larger, safer and more reliable, rather than expanding EV subsidies alone. And we need to reassess our transportation needs and priorities.

The road to decarbonization is long and winding. But if we are willing to get out of our cars and take a shortcut through the forest, we might get there a lot faster.

Author: Alexandre Milovanoff - Postdoctoral Researcher, Environmental Engineering, University of Toronto 

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Freedom Cannabis solar array powers an Acheson cannabis facility with 4,574 rooftop panels, a 1,830-kilowatt system by Enmax, cutting greenhouse gas emissions, lowering energy costs, and advancing renewable energy, sustainability, and operational efficiency in Edmonton.

Key Points

A 1,830-kW rooftop solar system with 4,574 panels, cutting GHG emissions and energy costs at the Acheson facility.

✅ 1,830-kW array offsets 1,000+ tonnes GHG annually

✅ Supplies ~8% of annual power; saves $200k-$300k per year

✅ 4,574 rooftop panels installed by Enmax in Acheson

Electricity consumption is one of the biggest barriers to going green in the cannabis industry, where the energy demands of cannabis cultivation often complicate sustainability, but an Edmonton-area pot producer has come up with a sunny solution.

Freedom Cannabis unveiled the largest rooftop solar system used by a cannabis facility in Canada at its 126,000-square foot Acheson location, 20 kilometres west of Edmonton, as solar power in Alberta continues to surge, on Tuesday.

The "state-of-the-art" 1,830-kilowatt solar array—made up of 4,574 panels—was supplied by Enmax and will offset more than 1,000 tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions each year, reflecting how new Alberta solar facilities are undercutting natural gas on price, the company said.

The state-of-the-art solar array—made up of 4,574 panels—was supplied by Enmax and will offset more than 1,000 tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions at Freedom Cannabis every year. Nov. 12, 2019. (Freedom Cannabis)

That will supply roughly eight per cent of the building's annual power consumption and reduce costs by $200,000 to $300,000 annually.

"This strategy will supplement our operating costs for power by up to eight to 10 per cent, so it is something that in time will save us costs on power requirements," said Troy Dezwart, co-founder of Freedom Cannabis.

Dezwart said sustainability was an important issue to the company from its outset, aligning with an Alberta renewable energy surge that is expected to power thousands of jobs.

"We're fortunate enough to be able to have these types of options and pursue them," said Dezwart.

The entire system cost Freedom Cannabis $2.6 million to build, but nearly a million of that came from a provincial rebate program that has since been cancelled by the UCP government, even as a federal green electricity deal with an Edmonton company signals ongoing support.

The company cited a 2017 report that found cannabis growers in the U.S. used enough electricity to power 1.7-million homes, and said cannabis-related power consumption is expected to increase by 1,250 per cent in Ontario over the next five years, even though Canadian solar demand has been lagging overall.

“It’s more important than ever for businesses to manage their energy footprint, and solar is an important part of that solution,” Enmax director Jason Atkinson, said. “This solar installation will help reduce operating costs and offset a significant portion of GHG emissions for decades to come.”

Freedom says it has other initiatives underway to reduce its footprint, in a region planning the Edmonton airport solar farm among other projects, including water remediation and offering 100 per cent recyclable cannabis packaging tins.

The company's first crops are expected to go to market in December.

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National Grid Demand Flexibility Service helps stabilise the UK grid during tight supply, offering discounts for smart meter users who shift peak-time electricity use, reducing power cut risks amid low wind and import constraints.

Key Points

A National Grid scheme paying smart homes to cut peak-time use, easing supply pressure and avoiding power cuts.

✅ Pays volunteers with smart meters to reduce peak demand.

✅ Credits discounts for shifting use to off-peak windows.

✅ Manages tight margins and helps avert UK power cuts.

National Grid has decided not to activate a scheme on Tuesday to help the UK avoid power cuts after being poised to do so.

It would have seen some households offered discounts on their electricity bills if they cut peak-time use.

National Grid had been ready to trigger the scheme following a warning that Britain's energy supplies were looking tighter than usual this week.

However, it decided that the measure was not required.

Alerts are sent out automatically when expected supplies drop below a certain level. But they do not mean that blackouts are likely, or that the situation is critical.

National Grid said it was "confident" it would be able to manage margins and "demand is not at risk".

Discounts
Earlier on Monday, the grid operator said it was considering whether to pay households across Britain to reduce their energy use to help out on Tuesday evening.

Under the Demand Flexibility Service (DFS), announced earlier this month, customers that have signed up could get discounts on their bills if they use less electricity in a given window of time.

That could mean delaying the use of a tumble-dryer or washing machine, or cooking dinner in the microwave rather than the oven.

Major suppliers such as Octopus and British Gas are taking part, but only customers that have an electricity smart meter and that have volunteered are eligible. About 14 million UK homes have an electricity smart meter.

The DFS has already been tested twice but has not yet run live.

Octopus, the supplier with the most customers signed up, said that some households had earned more than £4 during the hour-long tests, while the average saving was "well over £1".

It came after forecasts projected a large drop in the amount of power that Britain will be able to import from French nuclear power stations on Monday and Tuesday evenings.

The lack of strong winds to power turbines has also affected how much power can be generated within the UK, and efforts to fast-track grid connections aim to ease constraints.

Such warnings are not unusual - around 12 have been issued and cancelled without issue in the last six years, and other regions such as Canada are seeing grids strained by harsh weather as well.

However, they have become more common this year due to the energy crisis, and the most recent notice was sent out last week.

The situation means that the UK will have to import electricity from other sources on Monday and Tuesday evening.

Supplies are also expected be tight in France, forecasters say.

France has been facing months of problems with its nuclear power plants, which generate around three-quarters of the country's electricity.

More than half of the nuclear reactors run by state energy company EDF have closed due to maintenance problems and technical issues.

It has added to a massive energy crisis in Europe which is facing a winter without gas supplies from Russia.

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EIA U.S. Power Outlook 2023-2024 forecasts lower electricity demand, softer wholesale prices, and faster renewable growth from solar and wind, with steady natural gas, reduced coal generation, slight nuclear gains, and ERCOT market moderation.

Key Points

An EIA forecast of a 2023 demand dip, 2024 rebound, lower prices, and a higher renewable share in the U.S. power mix.

✅ Demand dips to 4,000 billion kWh in 2023; rebounds in 2024.

✅ ERCOT on-peak prices average about $35/MWh versus $80/MWh in 2022.

✅ Renewables grow to 24% share; coal falls to 17%; nuclear edges up.

U.S. power consumption is expected to slip about 1% in 2023 from the previous year as milder weather slows usage from the record high hit in 2022, consistent with recent U.S. consumption trends observed over the past several years, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).

EIA projected that electricity demand is on track to slide to 4,000 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) in 2023 from a historic high of 4,048 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) in 2022, reflecting patterns seen during COVID-19 demand shifts in prior years, before rising to 4,062 billion kWh in 2024 as economic growth ramps up.

Less demand coupled with more electricity generation from cheap renewable power sources and lower natural gas prices is forecast to slash wholesale power prices this year, the EIA said.

The on-peak wholesale price at the North hub in Texas’ ERCOT power market is expected to average about $35 per megawatt-hour (MWh) in 2023 compared with an average of nearly $80/MWh in 2022 after the 2022 price surge in power markets.

As capacity for renewables like solar and wind ramp up and as natural gas prices ease amid the broader energy crisis pressures, the EIA said it expects coal-fired power generation to be 17% less in the spring of 2023 than in the spring of 2022.

Coal will provide an average of 17% of total U.S. generation this year, down from 20% last year, as utilities shift investments toward electricity delivery and away from new power production, the EIA said.

The share of total generation supplied by natural gas is seen remaining at about the same this year at 39%. The nuclear share of generation is seen rising slightly to 20% this year from 19% in 2022. Generation from renewable energy sources grows the most in the forecast, increasing to 24% this year from a share of 22% last year, even as residential electricity bills rose in 2022 across the U.S.

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