Efficiency Groups Sound Alarm on Potential Regulatory Rollbacks


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Energy Efficiency Standards face congressional scrutiny as bipartisan rules meet regulatory reform proposals like the REINS Act, risking appliance standards, consumer savings, grid reliability, and pollution cuts secured through transparent review and stakeholder consensus.

 

Key Points

Federal rules set minimum performance for appliances to cut costs, reduce pollution, and ease grid demand.

✅ Backed by 30 years of bipartisan support and stakeholder input

✅ Proposed REINS Act could delay or block new efficiency rules

✅ Typical households save about $500 annually under current standards

 

A coalition of energy efficiency groups, trade associations, energy efficiency organizations, environmental organizations, and consumer groups sent a letter to congressional leaders Friday voicing concern about legislative efforts that threaten years of bipartisan, cost-saving rules and standards on energy efficiency.

Bills being considered in the House and Senate would eliminate longstanding checks and balances that ensure thorough review and debate before Congress can eliminate federal regulation implemented appropriately under the law, including bipartisan efficiency standards. Lawmakers are also considering proposals such as the “REINS Act” that could effectively block new standards by adding lengthy, burdensome new steps to the regulatory process, even as energy groups warn of rushed electricity pricing changes, based on arbitrary cost limits that ignore the tremendous net financial gains to consumers from energy efficiency standards.

“We urge you to proceed with caution as Congress considers how best to accomplish broad regulatory reform and debates energy-related tax incentives to ensure that cost-saving energy efficiency standards, which have enjoyed 30 years of bipartisan support, are not put at risk,” the groups wrote in the letter.

The groups signing the letter were the Alliance to Save Energy, American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, Appliance Standards Awareness Project, ASHRAE, California Energy Commission, Consumer Federation of America, Copper Development Association, Cree, Environmental and Energy Study Institute, Hannon Armstrong, Midwest Energy Efficiency Alliance, National Consumer Law Center on Behalf of its Low Income Clients, Natural Resources Defense Council, Northeast Energy Efficiency Partnerships, Polyisocyanurate Insulation Manufacturers Association, Southeast Energy Efficiency Alliance, Southwest Energy Efficiency Project, Urban Green Council, and Vermont Energy Investment Corporation.

“Efficiency standards that take years to review, analyze and develop – with extensive involvement and most often the support from the industries and other stakeholders affected – are threatened by these sweeping bills,” Alliance to Save Energy President Kateri Callahan said. “Congress absolutely should review and update regulations where necessary, but it can and should do so under the current rules that already provide meaningful checks and balances. Businesses and consumers need a predictable playing field in which utility rate designs can evolve without being upended every time we have a power shift in Washington.”

The groups said some of these legislative proposals would make it far too easy for Congress to eliminate in one reckless and fell swoop dozens of regulations that have been years in the making.

They cited the “Midnight Rules Relief Act” that recently passed the House and has been introduced in the Senate. It would allow Congress to quickly rescind all regulations finalized since June 13. Among regulations finalized since then are several significant appliance standards, including, dehumidifiers, battery chargers and compressors. Several more standards have been issued but await final administrative approval under the Trump administration as a potential Clean Power Plan replacement is weighed by officials.

“These are not last-minute standards rushed in under the cover of darkness,” said ASAP Executive Director Andrew deLaski. “They were developed over years of transparent public review and stakeholder negotiation. Many of them have broad consensus support from affected industries that have long since adapted to the new rules and don’t want to see them changed.”

“There should be no question about the benefits of efficiency standards. A typical household with products meeting the latest standards is saving about $500 a year,” said ACEEE Executive Director Steven Nadel. “Appliance prices have dropped as the standards have been enacted and consumers have more product choices than ever before. And at the same time, we’ve reduced stress on the grid, significantly cut pollution, and, alongside a clean electricity standard, eliminated the need for expensive new power plants that drive up utility rates.”

 

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Maine Governor calls for 100% renewable electricity

Maine Climate Council Act targets 80% renewable power by 2030 and 100% by 2050, slashing greenhouse gas emissions via clean electricity, grid procurement, long-term contracts, wind and hydro integration, resilience planning, and carbon sequestration.

 

Key Points

A Maine policy forming a Climate Council to reach 80% renewables in 2030 100% in 2050 and cut greenhouse gas emissions.

✅ 80% renewable electricity by 2030; 100% by 2050.

✅ 45% GHG cut by 2030; 80% by 2050.

✅ Utility procurement authority for clean capacity and energy.

 

The winds of change have shifted and are blowing Northward, as Maine’s Governor, Janet T. Mills, has put forth an act establishing a Climate Council to guide the state’s consumption to 80% renewable electricity in 2030 and 100% by 2050, echoing New York's Green New Deal ambitions underway.

The act, LR 2478 (pdf), also sets a goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 45% in 2030 and 80% by 2050. The document will be submitted to the state Legislature for consideration.

The commission would have the authority to direct investor owned transmission and distribution utilities to run competitive procurement processes, and enter into long-term contracts for capacity resources, energy resources, renewable energy credit contracts, and participate in regional programs, as these all lead toward the clean electricity and emissions-reducing goals that mirror California's 100% mandate debates today.

The Climate Council would convene industry working groups, including Scientific and Technical, Transportation, Coastal and Marine, Energy, and Building & Infrastructure working groups, plus others as needed, where examples like New Zealand's electricity transition could inform discussions.

Membership within the council would include two members of the State Senate, two members of the House, a tribal representative, many department commissioners (Education, Defense, Transportation, etc.), multiple directors, business representatives, environmental non-profit members, and climate science and resilience representatives as well.

The council would update the Maine State Climate Plan every four years, and solicit input from the public and report out progress on its goals every two years, similar to planning underway in Minnesota's carbon-free plan framework. The first Climate Action Plan would be submitted to the legislature by December 1, 2020.

Specifically, the responsibilities of the Scientific and Technical Subcommittee were laid out. The group would be scheduled to meet at least every six months, beginning no later than October 1, 2019. The group would be tasked with reviewing existing scientific literature, including net-zero electricity pathways research, to use it as guidance, recognizing gaps in the state’s knowledge, and guiding outside experts to ascertain this knowledge.  The group would consider ocean acidification, and climate change effects on the state’s species; establish science-based sea-level rise projections for the state’s coastal regions by December 1, 2020; create a climate risk map for flooding and extreme weather events; and consider carbon sequestration via biomass growth.

The state’s largest power plants (above image), generate about 31% from gas, 28% from wood and 41% from hydro+wind. Already, the state has a very clean electricity profile, much like efforts to decarbonize Canada's power sector continue apace. Below, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) notes that 51% of electricity generation within the state comes from mostly wind+hydro, with a small touch from solar power. The state also gets 24% from wood and other biomass, which would lead some to argue that the state is already at 75% “renewable electricity”. The Governor’s document does reference wind power specifically as a renewable, however, no other specific electricity source. And there is much reference to forestry, agriculture, and logging – specifically noting carbon sequestration – but nothing regarding electricity.

The state’s final 25% of electricity mostly comes from natural gas, even as renewable electricity momentum builds across North America, with this author choosing to put “other” under the fossil percentage noted above.

 

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Coal CEO blasts federal agency's decision on power grid

FERC Rejects Trump Coal Plan, denying subsidies for coal-fired and nuclear plants as energy policy shifts toward natural gas and renewables, citing no grid reliability threat and warning about electricity prices and market impacts.

 

Key Points

FERC unanimously rejected subsidies for coal and nuclear plants, finding no grid reliability risk from retirements.

✅ Unanimous FERC vote rejects coal and nuclear compensation

✅ Cites no threat to grid reliability from plant retirements

✅ Opponents warned subsidies would distort power markets and prices

 

A decision by an independent energy agency to reject the Trump administration’s electricity pricing plan to bolster the coal industry could lead to more closures of coal-fired power plants and the loss of thousands of jobs, a top coal executive said Tuesday.

Robert Murray, CEO of Ohio-based Murray Energy Corp., called the action by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission “a bureaucratic cop-out” that will raise the cost of electricity and jeopardize the reliability and security of the nation’s electric grid.

“While FERC commissioners sit on their hands and refuse to take the action directed by Energy Secretary Rick Perry and President Donald Trump, the decommissioning of more coal-fired and nuclear plants could result, further jeopardizing the reliability, resiliency and security of America’s electric power grids,” Murray said. “It will also raise the cost of electricity for all Americans.”

The five-member energy commission voted unanimously Monday to reject Trump’s plan to reward nuclear and coal-fired power plants for adding reliability to the nation’s power grid. The plan would have made the plants eligible for billions of dollars in government subsidies and help reverse a tide of bankruptcies and loss of market share suffered by the once-dominant coal industry as utilities' shift to natural gas and renewable energy continues.

The Republican-controlled commission said there’s no evidence that any past or planned retirements of coal-fired power plants pose a threat to reliability of the nation’s electric grid.

Murray disputed that and said the recent cold snap that hit the East Coast showed coal’s value, as power users in the Southeast were asked to cut back on electricity usage because of a shortage of natural gas. “If it were not for the electricity generated by our nation’s coal-fired and nuclear power plants, we would be experiencing massive brownouts risk and blackouts in this country,” he said.

Murray Energy is the largest privately owned coal company in the United States, with mining operations in Ohio, Illinois, Kentucky, Utah and West Virginia. Robert Murray, a Trump friend and political supporter, has been pushing hard for federal assistance for his industry. The Associated Press reported last year that Murray asked the Trump administration to issue an emergency order protecting coal-fired power plants from closing. Murray warned that failure to act could cause thousands of coal miners to be laid off and force his largest customer, Ohio-based FirstEnergy Solutions, into bankruptcy.

Perry ultimately rejected Murray’s request, but later asked energy regulators to boost coal and nuclear plants as the administration moved to replace the Clean Power Plan with a more limited approach.

The plan drew widespread opposition from business and environmental groups that frequently disagree with each other, even as some coal and business interests backed the EPA's Affordable Clean Energy rule in court.

Jack Gerard, president and CEO of the American Petroleum Institute, said Tuesday that the Trump plan was “far too narrow” in its focus on power sources that maintain a 90-day fuel supply.

API, the largest lobbying group for oil and gas industry, supports coal and other energy sources, Gerard said, “but we should not put our eggs in an individual basket defined as a 90-day fuel supply (while) unnecessarily intervening in private markets.”

 

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New Rules for a Future Puerto Rico Microgrid Landscape

Puerto Rico Microgrid Regulations outline renewable energy, CHP, and storage standards, enabling islanded systems, PREPA interconnection, excess energy sales, and IRP alignment to boost resilience, distributed resources, and community power across the recovering grid.

 

Key Points

Rules defining microgrids, requiring 75 percent renewables or CHP, and setting interconnection and PREPA fee frameworks.

✅ 75 percent renewables or CHP; hybrids allowed

✅ Registration, engineer inspection, and annual generation reports

✅ PREPA interconnection fees; excess energy sales permitted

 

The Puerto Rico Energy Commission unveiled 29 pages of proposed regulations last week for future microgrid installations on the island.

The regulations, which are now open for 30 days of public comment, synthesized pages of responses received after a November 10 call for recommendations. Commission chair José Román Morales said it’s the most interest the not-yet four-year-old commission has received during a public rulemaking process.

The goal was to sketch a clearer outline for a tricky-to-define concept -- the term "microgrid" can refer to many types of generation islanded from the central grid -- as climate pressures on the U.S. grid mount and more developers eye installations on the recovering island.

“There’s not a standard definition of what a microgrid is, not even on the mainland,” said Román Morales.

According to the commission's regulation, “a microgrid shall consist, at a minimum, of generation assets, loads and distribution infrastructure. Microgrids shall include sufficient generation, storage assets and advanced distribution technologies, including advanced inverters, to serve load under normal operating and usage conditions.”

All microgrids must be renewable (with at least 75 percent of power from clean energy), combined heat and power (CHP) or hybrid CHP-and-renewable systems. The regulation applies to microgrids controlled and owned by individuals, customer cooperatives, nonprofit and for-profit companies, and cities, but not those owned by the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (PREPA). Owners must submit a registration application for approval, including a certification of inspection from a licensed electric engineer, and an annual fuel, generation and sales report that details generation and fuel source, as well as any change in the number of customers served.

Microgrids, like the SDG&E microgrid in Ramona in California, can interconnect with the PREPA system, but if a microgrid will use PREPA infrastructure, owners will incur a monthly fee. That amounts to $25 per customer up to a cap of $250 per month for small cooperative microgrids. The cost for larger systems is calculated using a separate, more complex equation. Operators can also sell excess energy back to PREPA.

 

Big goals for the island's future grid

In total, 53 groups and companies, including Sunnova, AES, the Puerto Rico Solar Energy Industries Association (PR-SEIA), the Advanced Energy Management Alliance (AEMA), and the New York Smart Grid Consortium, submitted their thoughts about microgrids or, in many cases, broader goals for the island’s future energy system. It was a quick turnaround: The Puerto Rico Energy Commission offered a window of just 10 days to submit advice, although the commission continued to accept comments after the deadline.

“PREC wanted the input as fast as possible because of the urgency,” said AES CEO Chris Shelton.

AES’ plan includes a network of “mini-grids” that could range in size from several megawatts to one large enough to service the entire city of San Juan.

“The idea is, you connect those to each other with transmission so they can have a co-optimized portfolio effect and lower the overall cost,” said Shelton. “But they would be largely autonomous in a situation where the tie-lines between them were broken.”

According to estimates provided in AES’ filing, utility-scale solar installations over 50 megawatts on the island could cost between $40 and $50 per megawatt-hour. Those prices make solar located near load centers an economic alternative to the island’s fossil-fuel generating plants. The utility’s analysis showed that a 10,000-megawatt solar system could replace 12,000 gigawatt-hours of fossil generation, with 25 gigawatt-hours of battery storage leveling out load throughout the day. Puerto Rico’s peak load is 3,000 megawatts.

In other filings, PR-SEIA urged a restructuring of FEMA funds so they’re available for microgrid development. GridWise Alliance wrote that plans should consider cybersecurity, and AEMA recommended the commission develop an integrated resource plan (IRP) that includes distributed energy resources, microgrids and non-wires alternatives.

 

An air of optimism, though 1.5 million are still without power

After the commission completes the microgrid rulemaking, a new IRP is next on the commission’s to-do list. PREPA must file that plan in July, and regulators are working furiously to make sure it incorporates the recent flood of rebuilding recommendations from the energy industry.

Though the commission has the final say when it comes to approval of the plan, PREPA will lead the IRP process. The utility’s newly formed Transformation Advisory Council (TAC), a group of 11 energy experts, will contribute.

With that group, along with New York’s Resiliency Working Group, lessons from California's grid transition, the Energy Commission, the utility itself, and the dozens of other clean energy experts and entrepreneurs who want to offer their two cents, the energy planning process has a lot of moving parts. But according to Julia Hamm, CEO of the Smart Electric Power Alliance and a member of both the Energy Resiliency Working Group and the TAC, those working to establish standards for Puerto Rico’s future are hitting their stride.

“Certainly over the past three months, it has been a bit of a challenge to ensure that everybody has been coordinating efforts. Just over the past couple of weeks, we’ve seen some good progress on that front. We’re starting to see a lot more communication,” she said, adding that an air of optimism has settled on the process. “The key stakeholders all have a very common vision for Puerto Rico when it comes to the power sector.”

Nisha Desai, a PREPA board member who is liaising with the TAC, affirmed that collaborators are on the same page. “Everyone is violently in agreement that the future of Puerto Rico involves renewables, microgrids and distributed generation,” she said.

The TAC will hold its first in-person meeting in mid-January, and has already consulted with the utility on its formal fiscal plan submission, due January 10.

Though many taking part in the process feel the once-harried recovery is beginning to adopt a more organized approach, Desai acknowledges that “there are a lot of people in Puerto Rico who feel forgotten.”

Puerto Rico’s current generation sits at just 72.6 percent, in a nation facing longer, more frequent outages due to extreme weather. The government recently offered its first estimate that about half the island, 1.5 million residents, remains without power.

In late December and into January, 1,500 more crewmembers from 18 utilities in states as far flung as Minnesota, Missouri and Arizona will land on the island to aid further restoration through mutual aid agreements.

“The system is getting up to speed, getting to 100 percent, but there’s still some instability,” said Román Morales. “Right now it’s a matter of time.”

 

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The Implications of Decarbonizing Canada's Electricity Grid

Canada Electricity Grid Decarbonization advances net-zero goals by expanding renewable energy (wind, solar, hydro), boosting grid reliability with battery storage, and aligning policy, efficiency, and investment to cut emissions and strengthen energy security.

 

Key Points

Canada's shift to low-carbon power using renewables and storage to cut emissions and improve grid reliability.

✅ Invest in wind, solar, hydro, and transmission upgrades

✅ Deploy battery storage to balance intermittent generation

✅ Support just transition, jobs, and energy efficiency

 

As Canada moves towards a more sustainable future, decarbonizing its electricity grid has emerged as a pivotal goal. The transition aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, promote renewable energy sources, and ultimately support global climate targets, with cleaning up Canada's electricity widely viewed as critical to meeting those pledges. However, the implications of this transition are multifaceted, impacting the economy, energy reliability, and the lives of Canadians.

Understanding Decarbonization

Decarbonization refers to the process of reducing carbon emissions produced from various sources, primarily fossil fuels. In Canada, the electricity grid is heavily reliant on natural gas, coal, and oil, which contribute significantly to carbon emissions. The Canadian government has committed to achieving net-zero by 2050 through federal and provincial collaboration, with the electricity sector playing a crucial role in this initiative. The strategy includes increasing the use of renewable energy sources such as wind, solar, and hydroelectric power.

Economic Considerations

Transitioning to a decarbonized electricity grid presents both challenges and opportunities for Canada’s economy. On one hand, the initial costs of investing in renewable energy infrastructure can be substantial. This includes not only the construction of renewable energy plants but also the necessary upgrades to the grid to accommodate new technologies. According to the Fraser Institute analysis, these investments could lead to increased electricity prices, impacting consumers and businesses alike.

However, the shift to a decarbonized grid can also stimulate economic growth. The renewable energy sector is a rapidly growing industry that, as Canada’s race to net-zero accelerates, promises job creation in manufacturing, installation, and maintenance of renewable technologies. Moreover, as technological advancements reduce the cost of renewable energy, the long-term savings on fuel costs can benefit both consumers and businesses. The challenge lies in balancing these economic factors to ensure a smooth transition.

Reliability and Energy Security

A significant concern regarding the decarbonization of the electricity grid is maintaining reliability and energy security, especially as an IEA report indicates Canada will need substantially more electricity to achieve net-zero goals, requiring careful system planning.

To address this challenge, the implementation of energy storage solutions and grid enhancements will be essential. Advances in battery technology and energy storage systems can help manage supply and demand effectively, ensuring that energy remains available even during periods of low renewable output. Additionally, integrating a diverse mix of energy sources, including hydroelectric power, can enhance the reliability of the grid.

Social Impacts

The decarbonization process also carries significant social implications. Communities that currently depend on fossil fuel industries may face economic challenges as the transition progresses, and the Canadian Gas Association has warned of potential economy-wide costs for switching to electricity, underscoring the need for a just transition.

Furthermore, there is a need for public engagement and education on the benefits and challenges of decarbonization. Canadians must understand how changes in energy policy will affect their daily lives, from electricity prices to job opportunities. Fostering a sense of community involvement can help build support for renewable energy initiatives and ensure that diverse voices are heard in the planning process.

Policy Recommendations

For Canada to successfully decarbonize its electricity grid, and building on recent electricity progress across provinces nationwide, robust and forward-thinking policies must be implemented. This includes investment in research and development to advance renewable technologies and improve energy storage solutions. Additionally, policies should encourage public-private partnerships to share the financial burden of infrastructure investments.

Governments at all levels should also promote energy efficiency measures to reduce overall demand, making the transition more manageable. Incentives for consumers to adopt renewable energy solutions, such as solar panels, can further accelerate the shift towards a decarbonized grid.

Decarbonizing Canada's electricity grid presents a complex yet necessary challenge. While there are economic, reliability, and social considerations to navigate, the potential benefits of a cleaner, more sustainable energy future are substantial. By implementing thoughtful policies and fostering community engagement, Canada can lead the way in creating an electricity grid that not only meets the needs of its citizens but also contributes to global efforts in combating climate change.

 

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Tesla’s Powerwall as the beating heart of your home

GMP Tesla Powerwall Program replaces utility meters with smart battery storage, enabling virtual power plant services, demand response, and resilient homes, integrating solar readiness, EV charging support, and smart grid controls across Vermont households.

 

Key Points

Green Mountain Power uses Tesla Powerwalls as smart meters, creating a VPP for demand response and home backup.

✅ $30 monthly for 10 years or $3,000 upfront for two units

✅ Utility controls batteries for peak shaving and demand response

✅ Enables backup power, solar readiness, and EV charging support

 

There are more than 100 million single-family homes in the United States of America. If each of these homes were to have two 13.5 kWh Tesla Powerwalls, that would total 2.7 Terawatt-hours worth of electricity stored. Prior research has suggested that this volume of energy storage could get us halfway to the 5.4 TWh of storage needed to let the nation get 80% of its electricity from solar and wind, as states like California increasingly turn to grid batteries to support the transition.

Vermont utility Green Mountain Power (GMP) seeks to remove standard electric utility metering hardware and replace it with the equipment inside of a Tesla Powerwall, as part of a broader digital grid evolution underway. Mary Powell, President and CEO of Green Mountain Power, says, “We have a vision of a battery system in every single home” and they’ve got a patent pending software solution to make it happen.

The Resilient Home program will install two standard Tesla Powerwalls each in 250 homes in GMP’s service area. The homeowner will pay either $30 a month for ten years ($3,600), or $3,000 up front. At the end of the ten year period, payments end, but the unit can stay in the home for an additional five years – or as long as it has a usable life.

A single Powerwall costs approximately $6,800, making this a major discount.

GMP notes that the home must have reliable internet access to allow GMP and Tesla to communicate with the Powerwall. GMP will control the functions of the Powerwall, effectively operating a virtual power plant across participating homes, expanding the scope of programs like those that saved the state’s ratepayers more than $500,000 during peak demand events last year. The utility specifically notes that customers agree to share stored energy with GMP on several peak demand days each year.

The hardware can be designed to interact with current backup generators during power outages, or emerging fuel cell solutions that maintain battery charge longer during extended outages, however, the units will not charge from the generator. As noted the utility will be making use of the hardware during normal operating times, however, during a power outage the private home owner will be able to use the electricity to back up both their house and top off their car.

The utility told pv magazine USA that the Powerwalls are standard from the factory, with GMP’s patent pending software solution being the special sauce (has a hint of recent UL certifications). GMP said the program will also get home owners “adoption ready” for solar power, including microgrid energy storage markets, and other smart devices.

Sonnen’s ecoLinx is already directly interacting with a home’s electrical panel (literally throwing wifi enabled circuit breakers). Now with Tesla Powerwalls being used to replace utility meters, we see one further layer of integration that will lead to design changes that will drive residential solar toward $1/W. Electric utilities are also experimenting with controlling module level electronics and smart solar inverters in 100% residential penetration situations. And of course, considering that California is requiring solar – and probably storage in the future – in all new homes, we should expect to see further experimentation in this model. Off grid solar inverter manufacturers already include electric panels with their offerings.

If we add in the electric car, and have vehicle-to-grid abilities, we start to see a very strong amount of electricity generation and energy storage, helping to keep the lights on during grid stress, potentially happening in more than 100 million residential power plants. Resilient homes indeed.

 

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‘Tsunami of data’ could consume one fifth of global electricity by 2025

ICT Electricity Demand is surging as data centers, 5G, IoT, and server farms expand, straining grids, boosting carbon emissions, and challenging climate targets unless efficiency, renewable energy, and smarter cooling dramatically improve.

 

Key Points

ICT electricity demand is power used by networks, devices, and data centers across the global communications sector.

✅ Projected to reach up to 20 percent of global electricity by 2025

✅ Driven by data centers, 5G traffic, IoT, and high-res streaming

✅ Mitigation: efficiency, renewable PPAs, advanced cooling, workload shifts

 

The communications industry could use 20% of all the world’s electricity by 2025, hampering attempts to meet climate change targets, even as countries like New Zealand's electrification plans seek broader decarbonization, and straining grids as demand by power-hungry server farms storing digital data from billions of smartphones, tablets and internet-connected devices grows exponentially.

The industry has long argued that it can considerably reduce carbon emissions by increasing efficiency and reducing waste, but academics are challenging industry assumptions. A new paper, due to be published by US researchers later this month, will forecast that information and communications technology could create up to 3.5% of global emissions by 2020 – surpassing aviation and shipping – and up to 14% 2040, around the same proportion as the US today.

Global computing power demand from internet-connected devices, high resolution video streaming, emails, surveillance cameras and a new generation of smart TVs is increasing 20% a year, consuming roughly 3-5% of the world’s electricity in 2015, says Swedish researcher Anders Andrae.

In an update o a 2016 peer-reviewed study, Andrae found that without dramatic increases in efficiency, the ICT industry could use 20% of all electricity and emit up to 5.5% of the world’s carbon emissions by 2025. This would be more than any country, except China, India and the USA, where China's data center electricity use is drawing scrutiny.

He expects industry power demand to increase from 200-300 terawatt hours (TWh) of electricity a year now, to 1,200 or even 3,000TWh by 2025. Data centres on their own could produce 1.9 gigatonnes (Gt) (or 3.2% of the global total) of carbon emissions, he says.

“The situation is alarming,” said Andrae, who works for the Chinese communications technology firm Huawei. “We have a tsunami of data approaching. Everything which can be is being digitalised. It is a perfect storm. 5G [the fifth generation of mobile technology] is coming, IP [internet protocol] traffic is much higher than estimated, and all cars and machines, robots and artificial intelligence are being digitalised, producing huge amounts of data which is stored in data centres.”

US researchers expect power consumption to triple in the next five years as one billion more people come online in developing countries, and the “internet of things” (IoT), driverless cars, robots, video surveillance and artificial intelligence grows exponentially in rich countries.

The industry has encouraged the idea that the digital transformation of economies and large-scale energy efficiencies will slash global emissions by 20% or more, but the scale and speed of the revolution has been a surprise.

Global internet traffic will increase nearly threefold in the next five years says the latest Cisco Visual Networking Index, a leading industry tracker of internet use.

“More than one billion new internet users are expected, growing from three billion in 2015 to 4.1bn by 2020. Over the next five years global IP networks will support up to 10bn new devices and connections, increasing from 16.3bn in 2015 to 26bn by 2020,” says Cisco.

A 2016 Berkeley laboratory report for the US government estimated the country’s data centres, which held about 350m terabytes of data in 2015, could together need over 100TWh of electricity a year by 2020. This is the equivalent of about 10 large nuclear power stations.

Data centre capacity is also rocketing in Europe, where the EU's plan to double electricity use by 2050 could compound demand, and Asia with London, Frankfurt, Paris and Amsterdam expected to add nearly 200MW of consumption in 2017, or the power equivalent of a medium size power station.

“We are seeing massive growth of data centres in all regions. Trends that started in the US are now standard in Europe. Asia is taking off massively,” says Mitual Patel, head of EMEA data centre research at global investment firm CBRE.

“The volume of data being handled by such centres is growing at unprecedented rates. They are seen as a key element in the next stage of growth for the ICT industry”, says Peter Corcoran, a researcher at the university of Ireland, Galway.

Using renewable energy sounds good but no one else benefits from what will be generated, and it skews national attempts to reduce emissions

Ireland, which with Denmark is becoming a data base for the world’s biggest tech companies, has 350MW connected to data centres but this is expected to triple to over 1,000MW, or the equivalent of a nuclear power station size plant, in the next five years.

Permission has been given for a further 550MW to be connected and 750MW more is in the pipeline, says Eirgrid, the country’s main grid operator.

“If all enquiries connect, the data centre load could account for 20% of Ireland’s peak demand,” says Eirgrid in its All-Island Generation Capacity Statement 2017-2026  report.

The data will be stored in vast new one million square feet or larger “hyper-scale” server farms, which companies are now building. The scale of these farms is huge; a single $1bn Apple data centre planned for Athenry in Co Galway, expects to eventually use 300MW of electricity, or over 8% of the national capacity and more than the daily entire usage of Dublin. It will require 144 large diesel generators as back up for when the wind does not blow.

 Facebook’s Lulea data centre in Sweden, located on the edge of the Arctic circle, uses outside air for cooling rather than air conditioning and runs on hydroelectic power generated on the nearby Lule River. Photograph: David Levene for the Guardian

Pressed by Greenpeace and other environment groups, large tech companies with a public face , including Google, Facebook, Apple, Intel and Amazon, have promised to use renewable energy to power data centres. In most cases they are buying it off grid but some are planning to build solar and wind farms close to their centres.

Greenpeace IT analyst Gary Cook says only about 20% of the electricity used in the world’s data centres is so far renewable, with 80% of the power still coming from fossil fuels.

“The good news is that some companies have certainly embraced their responsibility, and are moving quite aggressively to meet their rapid growth with renewable energy. Others are just growing aggressively,” he says.

Architect David Hughes, who has challenged Apple’s new centre in Ireland, says the government should not be taken in by the promises.

“Using renewable energy sounds good but no one else benefits from what will be generated, and it skews national attempts to reduce emissions. Data centres … have eaten into any progress we made to achieving Ireland’s 40% carbon emissions reduction target. They are just adding to demand and reducing our percentage. They are getting a free ride at the Irish citizens’ expense,” says Hughes.

Eirgrid estimates indicate that by 2025, one in every 3kWh generated in Ireland could be going to a data centre, he added. “We have sleepwalked our way into a 10% increase in electricity consumption.”

Fossil fuel plants may have to be kept open longer to power other parts of the country, and manage issues like SF6 use in electrical equipment, and the costs will fall on the consumer, he says. “We will have to upgrade our grid and build more power generation both wind and backup generation for when the wind isn’t there and this all goes onto people’s bills.”

Under a best case scenario, says Andrae, there will be massive continuous improvements of power saving, as the global energy transition gathers pace, renewable energy will become the norm and the explosive growth in demand for data will slow.

But equally, he says, demand could continue to rise dramatically if the industry keeps growing at 20% a year, driverless cars each with dozens of embedded sensors, and cypto-currencies like Bitcoin which need vast amounts of computer power become mainstream.

“There is a real risk that it all gets out of control. Policy makers need to keep a close eye on this,” says Andrae.

 

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